War propaganda doesn’t change, whoever a conflict is fought with:
- Russia ‘running out of ballistic missiles’ – Telegraph, Oct 28 2022
- Iran is ‘running out of missiles’ – Telegraph, Mar 4 2026
Professed success is promoted by doing a countdown towards victory:
- IDF destroyed 1/3 of Iran’s missile launchers after Tel Aviv strikes – Jewish Chronicle, Jun 16 2025
- More than half of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed – Jewish Chronicle, Jun 20 2025
The recent war follows the scheme of ever rising enemy losses:
- Around Half of Iran’s Ballistic Missile Launchers Destroyed in Strikes, Israel Says – WSJ, Mar 1
- Israel says destroyed around 300 Iranian missile launchers – DPA, Mar 5 2026
- IDF estimates over 60% of Iran’s missile launchers taken out – Israel Hayom, Mar 6 2026
- Despite Saturday spike in missile sirens, IDF affirms 75% of Iranian missile launchers destroyed – Jerusalem Post, Mar 7 2026
- Israel Says 80% of Iran’s Missile Launchers Destroyed, Israelis Could Soon Resume Normal Life As Operation Continues – Yeshiva World, Mar 10 2026
At some point however delusion creeps in:
- IDF says destroyed 70% of Iran’s missile launchers as war progresses ‘beyond expectations’ – YnetNews, Mar 15 2026
- Majority of IRGC missile launchers destroyed, Israel to return to routine soon, official say – Jerusalem Post, Mar 10 2026
- US ‘cannot locate Iran’s missile launchers’ – Telegraph, Mar 11 2026
- Iran’s Missile Launcher Arsenal Holds Steady Despite Strikes – Bloomberg, Mar 12 2026
People start to ask questions:
- US says it has destroyed Iran missile capacity: How is Iran still shooting? – AlJazeerah, Mar 16, 2026
After Trump’s original plans did not survive contact with the enemy, the media are preparing the public for an escalation towards a ground war:
- Entering War’s Third Week, Trump Faces Stark Choices (archived) – NY Times
As the conflict with Iran expands and intensifies, President Trump’s options — to fight on, or to move toward declaring victory and pulling back — both carry deeply problematic consequences. - Oil Industry Warns Trump Administration Fuel Crunch Will Likely Worsen (archived) – WSJ
- The Iran war may be about to escalate – Gulf states could join the conflict (archived) – Economist
- Trump is trapped by the logic of war Boots on the ground might become inevitable – Unherd
- Trump demands ‘about 7′ countries join coalition to police Iran’s Strait of Hormuz – Politico
- Donald Trump warns Nato faces ‘very bad future’ if allies fail to help US in Iran (archived) – FT
- White House Tries to Build Coalition on Iran to Address Energy Crisis (archived) – WSJ
> President Trump and top aides spent the weekend framing their Iran operation as a resounding military success while imploring other countries to join their effort to resolve a worsening energy crisis related to the Strait of Hormuz.
The Trump administration as soon as this week plans to announce that multiple countries have agreed to form a coalition that will escort ships through the waterway, which runs along the Iranian coast, U.S. officials said. The U.S. and potential coalition countries are still discussing whether those operations would begin before or after the war ends. <
What is the use of escorting ships through the Strait “after the war ends”?
So far there are no takers of Trump’s call for allies. I doubt that there will be any.
The U.S. will have to go it alone. To take a strip of Iranian land north of the Strait of Hormuz with a depth and width sufficient to protect the Strait will require a force of some 100,000 soldiers. The U.S. no longer has such an invasion force nor the means to land it.
That does not mean that Trump won’t try it.
One can hope that the commodity and financial markets will become unruly enough soon enough to stop Trump from bombing Iran ‘a few more times just for fun‘ and from marching towards a ground war.
