On January 28 I had warned that Iran Is No Easy Target:
Iran however is also ready. It has increased its missile forces. It has promised to use it against U.S. positions in the Middle East and against Israel in retaliation to any attack. It has also promised to close the Strait of Hormuz. A large part of the global oil supply is flowing through it. A selective closure, which would for example allow tankers destined for China to pass, is also a possibility. But even a partial prolonged closure would suddenly increase oil and gas prices all over the world. Republican chances to win in the mid-term elections would decrease.
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The arising conflict is unlikely to be as short as the recent 12 day campaign. It could easily escalate into attritional warfare. Unlike Iran Israel has nukes and may be willing to use them. But given Iran’s size and large population it is likely to end up severely damaged, but as a winner.
We are now in the midst of what I had foreseen. It was easy to predict this development and the Pentagon should be asked why it has failed to do so:
The Pentagon and National Security Council significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US military strikes while planning the ongoing operation, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.
President Donald Trump’s national security team failed to fully account for the potential consequences of what some officials have described as a worst-case scenario now facing the administration, the sources said.
While key officials from the Departments of Energy and Treasury were present for some of the official planning meetings about the operation before it started, sources said, the agency analysis and forecasts that would be integral elements of the decision-making process in past administrations were secondary considerations.
Trump should fire his National Security Advisor, Marco Rubio, and his Secretary of Defense for providing stupid advice to him. He then should look at a mirror …
Iran’s leaders are hiding in bunkers and moving into civilian areas …
More (vid)
Hegseth: “Iran’s leadership — desperate and hiding, they’ve gone underground. Cowering. That’s what rats do.”
Hegseth is partially right. Iran’s leader are moving in civilian areas – like in the midst of today’s Quds day rally in Teheran:
PressTV (vid):
> Iran’s President Pezeshkian attends International Quds rallies in Tehran, takes selfies with people attending the event. <
Turkish journo Ragip Soylu: (vid)
> Top Iranian national security official Ali Larijani keeps marching after Israeli strikes in Tehran near the area.
He even gives a live interview.
“Trump’s problem is that he doesn’t realize that the Iranian nation is mature and determined” <
Ragip Solyu (pic):
> Another WOW, Iranian top regime official, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, the chief of judiciary, is also participating in a march in Tehran.
Amid Israeli strikes in the vicinity.
This guy is among a few people who actually run Iran. <
Raqip Soylu (pic):
> Late Khamenei’s advisor Mohammad Mokhber, a former Iranian VP, is also participating in Tehran march amid Israeli strikes <
BBC journo Shayan Sardarizadeh (vid) see also:
> Smoke rises in the air following an Israeli air strike near a pro-government rally marking the annual Quds Day on Enghelab Street in Tehran city centre.
Chants of Allahu Akbar can be heard in reaction to the strike.
Location: 35.701154, 51.403464 <
Abbas Araghachi, the Foreign Minister of Iran, also took part.
Little security is seen in the above videos and pictures. Larijani and Pezeshkian have like three of four bodyguards each. They keep their distance. No attempts are made to hold people away from the principals.
The Lebanese Hizbullah, thought to be defeated in 2024 by Israel, is back and busy. Yesterday, in coordination with Iran, it launched over 200 missiles at Israel’s north while its ground troops fought off Israeli tank incursions. It is a gamble for Hizbullah but with a high chance to win.
Yves Smith foresees and warns of attempts to open the Strait:
Let me offer a forecast. I am not saying this is what will happen, but right now, it seems a probable path. Trump and his team are increasingly messaging that somehow they will pry the Strait of Hormuz open. When that idea was first voiced, we showcased Daniel Davis in one of his Deep Dive presentations on what an impossibly bad idea that was, that it would simply open up naval ships for easy destruction by Iran. Nevertheless, talking this barmy scheme up to credulous investors and the public, that somehow the spice will be flowing again soon, is now the Administration’s best path for somewhat containing energy price rises and the immediate damage they do.
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The Administration does have to Do Something in its own mind, rather than admit now to a Suez Crisis level self-inflicted loss of primacy. Forcing open the Strait of Hormuz fits our fantasies of dominance and military power. And if enough officials talk about this, erm, plan, the Administration may talk itself into it.So if we have not had a market freakout sooner, the likely trigger for one is sending US ships to the Strait of Hormuz and suffering a crushing defeat. It would then become undeniable that Iran has the whip hand.