U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly ready to give up on the Persian Gulf passage:
Trump Tells Aides He’s Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz (archived) – WSJ
In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. He decided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran’s navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said.
There are also military options the president could decide on, but they are not his immediate priority, they said.
Trump is considering to give up because he has no ability to reopen the Gulf by military or other means. The U.S. Navy is lacking the basic equipment to reopen sea passages – de-mining vessels – and it is lacking the arsenal depth needed to defend against the onslaught of missile, drones and torpedoes that would slaughter its ships should they try to pass through the Strait.
Iran controls 270 degrees of the bent of the passage. Its coast is mountainous with many hide outs from where weapons can be released. To reopen the passage by force, a 100,000+ strong army would need to invade, take and hold the Iranian coastline. There is no such forces as no country is willing to commit its soldiers to such a suicide mission.
Trump is now searching for other he can push into opening the closure he himself with war on Iran has caused:
All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil! President DJT
After 32 days of Trump’s “My war, your Hormuz problem …” has gone through many phases:
1. We need NATO help.
2. Not surprised NATO not helping.
3. We no longer need NATO help!
4. Actually we never needed NATO help.
5. We need Japan, Aus, Korea help.
6. They’re not helping either.
7. We are the most powerful country.
8. WE DON’T NEED ANYONE’S HELP!
9. NATO is a Paper Tiger without USA
10. The USA needs nothing from NATO, We will never forget.
11. Build up some delayed courage and go to The Straight of Hormuz.
There will be no takers.
For those who want and need their goods to pass through the Straits there are other ways to provide for it.
The National Security Affair Committee of the Iranian Parliament, the Majlis, has approved legislation that regulates future passages through the Strait:
– Iran will impose tolls on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz (it will be in national currency, Rial)
– America & Zionist regimes will be banned from passing through the Strait
– Iran armed forces will guarantee safe passage for vessels
– countries that imposed unilateral sanctions on Iran will be bared from passing through the Strait of Hormuz (now tell Canada, Australia and EU to impose more sanctions!)
– Iran will invite and ask Oman to be part of this new legal regime
The scheme solves several problems:
- The toll for future passages will help to repair the damage the USraeli war on Iran has caused to the country. (I had suggested this on March 19).
- The payment in Rial will lift the extraordinary diminished currency of Iran. This will allow for more imports, will lower inflation and rise the income of the average people.
- The effect of unilateral U.S./EU sanctions will evaporate if other countries decide to no longer follow them.
It is cheaper for Asia and Europe to pay a toll of let’s say 10% on plenty of oil passing through the Strait than to pay 100% on top of the previous price because of supply limits.
It will be more profitable for the Arab Gulf states to see oil flowing, even when the additional toll may cause demand to be slightly lower, than to suffer from no oil sales due to a continued blockade.
Persia had largely been in control of the Strait, including its western coast, until 1763, when the British East-India company established itself in Basra by force. It has now the chance to be back in control.
If it does so in a fair manner that will not unreasonably effect normal trade there is no reason for any neutral country to object to the change.