A few of the many interesting current developments of the war on Iran that stand out.
Trump has announced that the U.S. will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz:
US President Donald Trump said he intends to secure shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which is threatened by Iran, including with the US Navy.
“If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible,” he posted on his platform Truth Social on Tuesday. “No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD.”
Additionally, he has instructed the relevant United States International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to offer risk insurance and guarantees for all maritime trade in the region. The measure is primarily aimed at energy transport but is available to all shipping companies.
Some 20% of the global supplies of oil, LPG and fertilizers have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had long announced that the Strait would be closed if the country would come under attack. It has held to its promise. A few small ships have since tried to pass through the Strait but were stopped by Iranian strike impacts. Ship insurance companies have stopped to provide cover for any passage of the Strait.
Trump still does not understand the geographic facts of the Hormuz.
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Its open water width. over a length of some 100+ kilometer, is only about 40 kilometer. Its shipping lanes for large vessels are narrow and just 20 kilometer off the coast of Iran.
The usual way for a navy to secure such a passage would be to launch a severe bombing campaign to eliminate all radar and missile positions along the coastline. Only after such a campaign would attempts be made to pass the strait.
But the Iranian landscape along the coast is largely mountainous. There are many shelters to hide anti-ship missiles or drones. Ships passing the Strait can be seen by the naked eye (or through infrared devices during night time.) A swarm of medium range drones would overwhelm the air-defenses of any Navy escort trying to help tankers to pass through the strait. And that is before Iran decides to drop mines into the strait’s waters.
Hoping for escorts to help one to pass the Strait is like hiring body guards when your enemy is known to be a long range snipers. A hopeless endeavor.
I am sure that the Navy will find ways to let Trump know how futile the escorts would be.
Iran has known for a long time that its biggest advantage in a war is the economic damage it can cause. Two of the global long range air carriers, the Emirates and Qatar airlines, can no longer fly to their main hubs in the Gulf states. Sea freight will also soon be down to a trickle:
Maersk said on Wednesday it is temporarily suspending most cargo bookings in and out of the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia until further notice.
The Jeddah and King Abdullah ports in Saudi Arabia and the Salalah port in Oman remained operational while the shipping group is also still accepting cargo to and from Jordan and Lebanon.
The White House seems to have given little though about the global economic and other damage that its war against Iran would cause.
This can also be seen in the ever extending time-frame for its campaign. What started with a ‘days’, ‘a week’, ‘four weeks’ long campaign has now again doubled:
Hegseth says war with Iran could last 8 weeks
The defense secretary says the timeline could go further than previously speculated. “You can say four weeks, but it could be six, it could be eight, it could be three,” he says. “Ultimately, we set the pace and the tempo.”
Another sign that the U.S. campaign has lacked thorough planning is the late activation of proxy forces for fighting Iran on its own ground:
The CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces inside Iran. President Trump called Kurdish leaders personally over the weekend — and on Tuesday spoke directly with Mustafa Hijri, president of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, whose camps the IRGC had just struck with drones.
The Kurds do, as usual, lack unity and regional backing. Neither Iraq nor Turkey will silently sit by while the U.S. and Israel are forming another armed militia that will eventually threaten their states. Iranian nationalist, including the ones who oppose the Islamic Republic, will not welcome ethnic minorities to take over parts of their nation. For decades the U.S. had propped up Kurds to fight Saddam in Iraq and Assad in Syria. They – in the end – lost in both cases. The U.S. may pretend to prop up Iranian Kurds for a while but chances are high that they will be defeated and left hanging.
The U.S. has also decided to widen the regional reach of the war. A U.S. submarine has torpedoed and sunk an Iranian navy vessel in the Indian Ocean:
A U.S. Navy attack submarine has sunk an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean, the Pentagon has confirmed. Authorities in Sri Lanka had earlier announced they had rescued Iranian sailors from the Moudge class frigate IRIS Dena after what they said appeared to be a submarine attack. This is the first known attack by an American submarine on a surface warship since World War II and the first such action anywhere since the Churchill class HMS Conqueror sank the Argentine Navy cruiser ARA General Belgrano during the Falklands War in 1982.
The U.S. assault on a non-threatening Iranian asset far from the war zone will legitimate Iranian retaliation on U.S. assets world wide.
