Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 27, 2026
War On Iran: Exorbitant Munition Spending + Lack Of Success = Iran Is Winning

There are a few new numbers out on munitions availability  on either side of the conflict.

The Washington Post says (archived) that the U.S. has fired some 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles onto Iran. The total available stock of Tomahawks is somewhere between 3,000 and 4,000.

But the limit for the use of these long reach weapons is elsewhere. The missiles are usually fired from U.S. Navy vessels. They have limited loads of up to 72 Tomahawks each. When those are expended the vessels need to leave the scene to go to a friendly harbor for reloading. (Reloading large missiles at sea has been tested by is still in its infancy.)

The 16 or so destroyers and submarines the U.S. has around the Gulf are by now mostly ‘Winchester’, i.e. out of Tomahawk missiles to fire. But they can no leave the scene yet as their air-defense capabilities are still needed to take on Iranian missiles.

Air-defense missiles are also lacking. As the British Royal United Service Institute (RUSI) reported three days ago:

[O]ver a dozen munition types have been expended by the coalition at a rate that appears to be unsustainable. Already, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger noted on 19 March that global stockpiles are ‘empty or nearly empty’ and that if the war continues another month ‘we nearly have no missiles available’.

Given that Iran has damaged at least a dozen US and allied radars and satellite terminals, the efficiency of interception decreases; using 10 or 11 interceptors for one missile or 8 patriot missiles for one drone becomes unsustainable.

[T]he US military is approximately a month, or less, away from running out of ATACMS/PrSM ground-attack missiles and THAAD interceptors. Israel is in an even more precarious spot, with its Arrow interceptor missiles likely to be completely expended by the end of March. While the war could proceed with other munitions, this implies accepting greater risk for aircraft and tolerating more missile and drone ‘leakers’ damaging forces and infrastructure.

RUSI provides some tables and background on the industry difficulties to replenish the stockpiles.

On the other side of the equation is the damage the USraeli campaign has done to Iran. Over 10,000 ‘targets’ have been hit but the main aim of defeating Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities is, despite President Trump’s claims, still far from being reached:

The United States can only determine with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Iran’s vast missile arsenal as the U.S. and Israeli war on the country nears its one-month mark, according to five people familiar with the U.S. intelligence.

The status of around another third is less clear but bombings likely damaged, destroyed or ‌buried those missiles in underground tunnels and bunkers, four of the sources said. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitive nature of the information.

One of the sources said the intelligence was similar for ‌Iran’s drone capability, saying there was some degree of certainty about a third having been destroyed.

The intelligence stands in contrast to President Donald Trump’s public remarks on Thursday that Iran had “very few rockets left”.

If one compares the numbers of attacks per day the USraeli side has a large advantage. It is currently flying some 300 missions per day dropping bombs and missile on Iranian targets. Iran is firing about 30 to 40 missiles per day. The question though is the quality of such strikes. The USraeli side has from the very first day on targeted civilian infrastructure like schools and medical clinics while the Iranian side has attacked military and military-industrial installations.

Today the USraeli strikes hit Iranian steel plants in Khuzestan and Mobarakeh near Isfahan. Iran announced that it will hit back at similar installations in Israel and the Arab Gulf states. It is this ability to retaliate that is protecting Iran from the potentially most devastating attacks.

Iran’s position is giving it escalation advantage.

The editors of the Iran-hating Economist acknowledge this when they urge the U.S. (archived) to accept that it has no way to win this war:

In short, for all the power and sophistication of the military onslaught from America and Israel, Iran feels it has the upper hand over Mr Trump. It has shown that it is more capable than America of both inflicting pain and withstanding it. Mr Trump launched his war, unforgivably, without offering a strategic rationale for it. Despite operational successes and his nonsensical claim of having already changed the regime in Tehran, he has yet to win any substantive gains from the fighting. As the political costs mount, Mr Trump will come under growing pressure.

Mr Trump must agree to a full ceasefire, and compel Israel to abide by it. Talks on reopening the strait and steering Iran away from its nuclear programme will be bitterly difficult. And any eventual deal will be worse than what could have been struck before the war began, because Mr Trump has unwittingly strengthened the hand of hardliners and made clear the leverage they have over the strait. The result is that for now, at least, the advantage lies with Iran.

Trump might of course chose the alternative and escalate the war. But the prospect of doing that are no better than the current position.

Meanwhile U.S. allies are suffering from the war the U.S. has started. Australia is in an especially bad position. While it is producing and exporting crude oil it is depending on imports of petroleum products from Asia. As these are no longer available it has to buy diesel and gas from other sources which are extraordinary expensive:

Transit times from the US Gulf Coast to Australia stretch to 55–60 days, with freight costs around $20/bbl, compared with typical Asia-Pacific routes that stood at $5–6/bbl before the crisis. The price dynamics of regional products briefly blurred that disadvantage: on March 18, delivered gasoline and diesel from Singapore and Houston converged at roughly $161/bbl. As of March 25, Singapore cargoes look more attractive again — around $153/bbl versus $164/bbl from Houston. But pricing is no longer the decisive factor. The issue has shifted to physical availability. With unsold cargoes in Asia increasingly rare, the US – despite longer routes and more expensive freight – might become the only reliable way out of this imports’ deadlock for Canberra.

Global crude oil supplies are still shrinking. U.S. gas and diesel prices are still increasing. One wonders how long it will take for Trump and the U.S. to prohibit all exports of petroleum products. That will be the moment when Australia will awake to the real value of its alliance with the U.S. of A.

Comments

Posted by: two cents | Mar 28 2026 13:42 utc | 712
 
It’s the same old squirrel.
He’ll still be there tomorrow.
 
Meanwhile, you’re trying too hard to distract us from the spectacle of Trump getting the spanking of the century.
 
Please go to the open thread and try not to be so obviously manipulative.

Posted by: Sebgo | Mar 28 2026 17:27 utc | 801

Posted by: M | Mar 28 2026 17:07 utc | 835
 
That posting is LoveDonbass yapping at several posters, proudly beating the point that “no-one could prove LD insults”. I am not the one for forum drama but that was too rich even for me. Out of the blue (in fact a minor disagreement), LD called me a “zionist” which is a serious insult in my books. I’m the only person I know among colleagues, friends and family who attends the local Palestina rallies. So please drop the “I never insulted anyone” attutide and just be less preachy in general.

Posted by: Konami | Mar 28 2026 17:30 utc | 802

Posted by: Konami | Mar 28 2026 17:30 utc | 840
She called me a Zionist too, as well as many others. It seemed to be her Parthian shot when losing an argument.
Her assault against George the Zeroth was pure, unadulterated bigotry.
When not insulting other board members, less than 10% of her posts were useful or informative, maybe 1% interesting.
The rest weren’t worth the pixels they consumed and she got involved almost daily in a multi-page bun fight with one or more other barflies.
Juice not worth the squeeze. IMO
 

Posted by: ChatNPC | Mar 28 2026 17:38 utc | 803

There are millions of individuals fiercely opposed to Zio Imperialism in the US, but they have no organization, no program and no leadership.  Thus, they are forced into the arms of the Imperialist genocidal Democratic Party or they remain isolated and weak.  That’s where we are.  Protesting to the baby killers won’t save the babies.  It’s a question of workers power vs the power of the Zio Imperialist bourgeois.  We in the West do not have a democracy, yet.  (Ahenobarbarus post #827)
X
Need be quoted and highlighted.  It sums up the predicament of the generations before us and us of course.  Let alone the working slave class that pretty much went 100% ignored, unnoticed or mocked by the so-called “Hollywood” in the past… what one hundred  years? 
All we were ever good for were the endless, mindless, anti- and non-American wars.  And Pittsburgh Steel.  How many industrial and physical labor anonymous lives has the Cult of Mammon swallowed?
 

Posted by: Mr Bo | Mar 28 2026 17:48 utc | 804

 CGTN   30 mins  V. Good panel 
 
How could the US-Iran war reshape the global order? – YouTube

Posted by: Don Firineach | Mar 28 2026 17:52 utc | 805

The bottomed out Zionist Lies from Nutter (RIH) aren’t the Overton Window. They are basically Zio NAZI politics in an otherwise civikising Overton Window.
It is ZioNazism which is trying to break the Overton Window of civilised discussion. 
 
Nutter has already been banned by human decency or God, I’m not sure.
Trump, seeing Nutter’s long political survival, is encouraged to push the boundaries  of civilised behaviour to their limit, by lying,  in public, every day , to the world audience.
 
 Nutter was driven by Satan, Trump by ego.
The difference  between Nutter and Trump is that Trump has a tiny bit of fluttering commonsense, while Nutter had zero , (RIH).

Posted by: Giyane | Mar 28 2026 17:55 utc | 806

Posted by: Genesis | Mar 28 2026 15:49 utc | 814
=======
 
Gruss Gott, Genesis.
I think you mentioned that you lived in the former DDR.
I don’t want to pry, but I am curious as to where, generally, you currently live.
Three years ago I was invited to visit in Erfurt with a German friend of an American friend. She took me along to her handball get-together. It was very interesting. Her friends (mainly professionals such as teachers) were surprised when I was introduced as an American visitor–a few whispered, “Hallo! Nicht dick!” Because I could speak German I got to hear quite a few stories and viewpoints—a lot of criticisms of what occurred in the east after the Wende that affected their lives directly (e.g., pensions). Many felt favorably toward Trump because they were sick and tired of their own government in Berlin and of the migrant situation. They were also sick and tired of being labeled Fascists and Nazis because they supported the AfD. Now I wonder how people are feeling/thinking in the former DDR regarding Trump, the central govt., the Energiewende, .and the situ in Ukraine.
 
BTW I loved Erfurt—such a beautiful, livable city, with lovely unbombed residential areas, gardens, playgrounds . . . I could live there no problem, except that I love the ocean. I also visited Weimar, where they were still working on renovating  historic buildings there. I loved the atmosphere. All in all I had a wonderful trip and enjoyed so much being in Germany again—a different Germany from the Munich/Bavaria where I lived in the early seventies.

Posted by: Jane | Mar 28 2026 17:58 utc | 807

In the end USA is going to use nuclear weapons on Iranian cities and win the war in that horrible way.
 
 
Posted by: Simon | Mar 28 2026 16:16 utc | 804
 
How will that win them the war?
 
The Iranians are largely Shi’a who embrace martyrdom, not Shintoists who revere a God Emperor.
 

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Mar 28 2026 18:08 utc | 808

I’m the only person I know among colleagues, friends and family who attends the local Palestina rallies. So please drop the “I never insulted anyone” attutide and just be less preachy in general.
Posted by: Konami | Mar 28 2026 17:30 utc | 833
================
Glad to read this.
Now that makes three among those who comment on this blog.

Posted by: Jane | Mar 28 2026 18:13 utc | 809

Jane @ 840
Make that 4.

Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 28 2026 18:20 utc | 810

I saw a comment that ballistic missiles will not help Iran if the US forces open the Strait of Hormuz, this seems incorrect as any vessel will be a large stationary target for many hours to load or unload. No Iranian sanctioned vessel will be able to operate even if the Strait is “open”.
 
 
Posted by: misplaced citizen | Mar 28 2026 16:57 utc | 823
 
The Right Tool For The Job:
 
Why would they be using ballistic missiles to re-close the strait of Hormuz?
 
There’s a veritable smorgasbord of options:
 
– missile launched sea mines 
– traditional sea mines 
– smart mines 
– naval suicide drones 
– Shoulder launched rockets 
– fast attack boats 
 
Iran would have at least the options the Yemeni military had in closing the Bab Al Mandeb.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Mar 28 2026 18:22 utc | 811

Unless intentional, CIA jobs, farfetched unless the overall goal is to crash the entire global economy, which isn’t that farfetched, the USA is so outclassed industrially by China that it has no way to stop the capital flows from west to east without taking the entire planet to baseline, hoping that like the end of WW2, it comes out on top of the heap with the least damage. 
 
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Mar 28 2026 16:18 utc | 807
 
That makes no sense in the current era.
 
China will be the one nation left with the industrial capacity and economic production system to supply the rest of the world after the economic collapse.
 
The technology and ideology required to restore productivity from collapse was developed with the USSR following ww2. 
That ideology hasn’t gone away.
 
On the other hand, countries like the US, UK, most of Europe will find that there’s no market for their virtual financial instruments (all they produce these days) in a world where you can’t eat a dollar and a piece of bread demands a truckload of dollars …
 

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Mar 28 2026 18:34 utc | 812

Jane @ 840Make that 4.
Posted by: Mark2 | Mar 28 2026 18:20 utc | 841
================
Nice to know.

Posted by: Jane | Mar 28 2026 18:41 utc | 813

Jane@840:
 
Me too, for many years. Free Palestine!
 
https://linktr.ee/thesameerproject
 
“A donations based air initiative, led by Palestinians, wanting to supply emergency shelter and aid to displaced families in Gaza.”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Mar 28 2026 18:59 utc | 814

Won’t matter if the Strait is open or not after Ansar Allah destroy Saudi Aramco and Iraq is allied with Iran.

Posted by: necromancer | Mar 28 2026 19:56 utc | 815

The Islamic Republic of Iran is winning this war, the facts on the ground are obvious.

Posted by: pepe | Mar 28 2026 19:59 utc | 816

sorry tom, but i am not into elaborating… i do however appreciate your posts! cheers james
Posted by: james | Mar 28 2026 16:21 utc | 808
 
I must remember that from you in future too.

Posted by: Menz | Mar 28 2026 20:22 utc | 817

🔴 After ammunition runs out, the ship is forced to withdrawNo need to sink the ship, just make it use up its ammo – then it’s useless.So much for technological superiority
https://t.me/geopolitics_prime/67414

Posted by: Framarz | Mar 28 2026 17:03 utc | 827
No, that’s not enough Framarz, they need to SINK them. And why are the Iranians giving heads up to the enemy before targeting a target? USIzrahell is not giving any warnings to the Iranians before blowing up their targets.

Posted by: PeaceSeeker | Mar 28 2026 20:45 utc | 818

I have frequently gone on pro-Palestine marches. Though my most recent protest was outside the Ukrainian embassy in London.

Posted by: Waldorf | Mar 28 2026 21:08 utc | 819

And why are the Iranians giving heads up to the enemy …
@PeaceSeeker | Mar 28 2026 20:45 utc | 849
 
Because they are attriting the enemy not massacring schoolgirls.

Posted by: necromancer | Mar 28 2026 21:11 utc | 820

I have frequently gone on pro-Palestine marches. Though my most recent protest was outside the Ukrainian embassy in London.
Posted by: Waldorf | Mar 28 2026 21:08 utc | 850
===========
Six bar flies who stand up for Palestine in their local public square. ((:-))

Posted by: Jane | Mar 28 2026 21:52 utc | 821

🙂 I attend, but I just blend in with ‘the nature’. So is it more the thought that counts?

Posted by: titmouse | Mar 28 2026 22:05 utc | 822

Princess Bodica | Mar 28 2026 15:51 utc | 785
*** [France] Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez praised the police for their “high-level vigilance” and “mobilisation” in the current international context, noting that security forces have been on heightened alert to protect Iranian opposition figures, Jewish sites, and American interests since the start of the Iran war. This is the latest in a series of incidents showing how the Middle East conflict is already generating spillover security risks in Europe, even if the attack itself was amateurish and quickly disrupted. ***
 
Protection against their own false-flags?
Note an absence of government concern about safety of the French publuc.
 
 

Posted by: Cynic | Mar 29 2026 0:03 utc | 823

Exile | Mar 28 2026 16:31 utc | 816
*** finally- Teslas depriciate lile a stone. Used car buyers stay away from Tesla *** 
 
Could the body shell (if it’s any good) be re-designed so the Tesla factories switch to making a turbo-diesel or petrol version?

Posted by: Cynic | Mar 29 2026 0:20 utc | 824

Cynic | Mar 29 2026 0:20 utc | 855
 
Perhaps bolt the Tesla bodyshell onto a scaled-up resurrection of the Citroen 2CV chassis …..

Posted by: Cynic | Mar 29 2026 0:34 utc | 825

Now that iran has the upper hand, trump desperately seeking an exit leaves the jews in dire straits. They haven’t the necessary forces to turn their wanton bombings into a defeat of iran but have managed to cajole trump to provide boots on the ground – not enough for any purpose and trump is unwilling to commit the boots. So not really a stalemate but enough to tell iran the jews will be finished soon, trump back in the white house nursing his onsetting dementia. It’s the perfect time for iran to demand that the jews nukes must go in such a way that they can’t start over again. This is a non starter for the jews and for the US and it will tell iran that there is no permanent peace on the table and they might just as well keep going with the momentum they have gained and keep going until palestine is judenfrei! Might take a while but doable indeed!

Posted by: nisses | Mar 29 2026 0:47 utc | 826

’m posting this again – simply a MUST TUNE IN …. Hudson and Keen   – best hour of the day, week, month, year How the Global Crisis Will Unfold – YouTube  
Posted by: Don Firineach | Mar 27 2026 19:15 utc | 102
 
Very good video, seems there is much more going on than a war against Iran…and a disaster coming for all of us.

Posted by: Organic | Mar 29 2026 4:30 utc | 827

@Don Firineach | Mar 27 2026 19:15 utc | 102
 
Hudson and Keen make much sense to my totally uneducated brain – thanx for link

Posted by: necromancer | Mar 29 2026 6:01 utc | 828

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 28 2026 10:59 utc | 619 “#Hezbollah struck an IDF Armored Vehicle in the city of #Tyre.”
 In the city of Tyre!??
 
They have gotten that far? !
 

Posted by: ed4 | Mar 29 2026 10:48 utc | 829

There is one simple and cheap solution: Tehran and other Mullah shitholes must be burned by nuclear fire. Not ordinary nukes but salted nukes rendering the region inhabitable for at least the next thousand years! No mullahs, no problems!

Posted by: Dick Sleazy | Mar 29 2026 18:39 utc | 830

Hamas, one of their leaders did state years ago, that they did not mean to hit civilian targets, but they lack the capability to do anything but toss some rockets out in self defense.  Actually able to target, they do not have the capability, Iran, Persia does and have many thousands of weapons to do so.  US carriers(which would be now like battleships in WWII, obsolete) have to stay at least 1000 KM from Iran, or sunk.
 

Posted by: Rhymerez | Mar 31 2026 14:22 utc | 831