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War On Iran: Exorbitant Munition Spending + Lack Of Success = Iran Is Winning
There are a few new numbers out on munitions availability on either side of the conflict.
The Washington Post says (archived) that the U.S. has fired some 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles onto Iran. The total available stock of Tomahawks is somewhere between 3,000 and 4,000.
But the limit for the use of these long reach weapons is elsewhere. The missiles are usually fired from U.S. Navy vessels. They have limited loads of up to 72 Tomahawks each. When those are expended the vessels need to leave the scene to go to a friendly harbor for reloading. (Reloading large missiles at sea has been tested by is still in its infancy.)
The 16 or so destroyers and submarines the U.S. has around the Gulf are by now mostly ‘Winchester’, i.e. out of Tomahawk missiles to fire. But they can no leave the scene yet as their air-defense capabilities are still needed to take on Iranian missiles.
Air-defense missiles are also lacking. As the British Royal United Service Institute (RUSI) reported three days ago:
[O]ver a dozen munition types have been expended by the coalition at a rate that appears to be unsustainable. Already, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger noted on 19 March that global stockpiles are ‘empty or nearly empty’ and that if the war continues another month ‘we nearly have no missiles available’.
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Given that Iran has damaged at least a dozen US and allied radars and satellite terminals, the efficiency of interception decreases; using 10 or 11 interceptors for one missile or 8 patriot missiles for one drone becomes unsustainable.
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[T]he US military is approximately a month, or less, away from running out of ATACMS/PrSM ground-attack missiles and THAAD interceptors. Israel is in an even more precarious spot, with its Arrow interceptor missiles likely to be completely expended by the end of March. While the war could proceed with other munitions, this implies accepting greater risk for aircraft and tolerating more missile and drone ‘leakers’ damaging forces and infrastructure.
RUSI provides some tables and background on the industry difficulties to replenish the stockpiles.
On the other side of the equation is the damage the USraeli campaign has done to Iran. Over 10,000 ‘targets’ have been hit but the main aim of defeating Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities is, despite President Trump’s claims, still far from being reached:
The United States can only determine with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Iran’s vast missile arsenal as the U.S. and Israeli war on the country nears its one-month mark, according to five people familiar with the U.S. intelligence.
The status of around another third is less clear but bombings likely damaged, destroyed or buried those missiles in underground tunnels and bunkers, four of the sources said. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitive nature of the information.
One of the sources said the intelligence was similar for Iran’s drone capability, saying there was some degree of certainty about a third having been destroyed.
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The intelligence stands in contrast to President Donald Trump’s public remarks on Thursday that Iran had “very few rockets left”.
If one compares the numbers of attacks per day the USraeli side has a large advantage. It is currently flying some 300 missions per day dropping bombs and missile on Iranian targets. Iran is firing about 30 to 40 missiles per day. The question though is the quality of such strikes. The USraeli side has from the very first day on targeted civilian infrastructure like schools and medical clinics while the Iranian side has attacked military and military-industrial installations.
Today the USraeli strikes hit Iranian steel plants in Khuzestan and Mobarakeh near Isfahan. Iran announced that it will hit back at similar installations in Israel and the Arab Gulf states. It is this ability to retaliate that is protecting Iran from the potentially most devastating attacks.
Iran’s position is giving it escalation advantage.
The editors of the Iran-hating Economist acknowledge this when they urge the U.S. (archived) to accept that it has no way to win this war:
In short, for all the power and sophistication of the military onslaught from America and Israel, Iran feels it has the upper hand over Mr Trump. It has shown that it is more capable than America of both inflicting pain and withstanding it. Mr Trump launched his war, unforgivably, without offering a strategic rationale for it. Despite operational successes and his nonsensical claim of having already changed the regime in Tehran, he has yet to win any substantive gains from the fighting. As the political costs mount, Mr Trump will come under growing pressure.
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Mr Trump must agree to a full ceasefire, and compel Israel to abide by it. Talks on reopening the strait and steering Iran away from its nuclear programme will be bitterly difficult. And any eventual deal will be worse than what could have been struck before the war began, because Mr Trump has unwittingly strengthened the hand of hardliners and made clear the leverage they have over the strait. The result is that for now, at least, the advantage lies with Iran.
Trump might of course chose the alternative and escalate the war. But the prospect of doing that are no better than the current position.
Meanwhile U.S. allies are suffering from the war the U.S. has started. Australia is in an especially bad position. While it is producing and exporting crude oil it is depending on imports of petroleum products from Asia. As these are no longer available it has to buy diesel and gas from other sources which are extraordinary expensive:
Transit times from the US Gulf Coast to Australia stretch to 55–60 days, with freight costs around $20/bbl, compared with typical Asia-Pacific routes that stood at $5–6/bbl before the crisis. The price dynamics of regional products briefly blurred that disadvantage: on March 18, delivered gasoline and diesel from Singapore and Houston converged at roughly $161/bbl. As of March 25, Singapore cargoes look more attractive again — around $153/bbl versus $164/bbl from Houston. But pricing is no longer the decisive factor. The issue has shifted to physical availability. With unsold cargoes in Asia increasingly rare, the US – despite longer routes and more expensive freight – might become the only reliable way out of this imports’ deadlock for Canberra.
Global crude oil supplies are still shrinking. U.S. gas and diesel prices are still increasing. One wonders how long it will take for Trump and the U.S. to prohibit all exports of petroleum products. That will be the moment when Australia will awake to the real value of its alliance with the U.S. of A.
All Under Heaven at 33: they, the jews, wont be nuked since iran doesn’t hold any nukes. More likely that the jews will nuke iran since they have quite a few. However the majority of the worlds population would like to see the jews being made to run for their lives and never return to palestine!
Posted by: nisses | Mar 26 2026 23:17 utc | 324
Casually describing Iran being nuked is just as disgusting as describing it being done to Israeli-occupied Palestinian lands.
If your prediction is accurate (and I stress that it’s just your prediction) and Israel nuking Iran results in a popular uprising in the region that ends with Israelis being chased out without having Iran nuke Israel/occupied Palestinian lands in retaliation, then there wouldn’t be a need for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons in the first place.
Please, I implore you, dear Americans🇺🇸, use your brains for once!
People as stupid as watcher @521 shouldn’t be online if they can’t even tell the difference between wanting nukes used and wanting Iran to get nuclear weapons so that nukes are not used.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | Mar 27 2026 9:54 utc | 528
No one is confusing anything Biswapriya Purkayastha the American🇺🇸 is saying. They’re just thinking a couple of steps ahead. Biswapriya Purkayastha the American🇺🇸 and other commentators supporting him are living proof of why “midwits” should never make policy recommendations or hold office.
Arguing for the acquisition of nuclear weapons to achieve nuclear deterrence, also known as mutually assured destruction (MAD), means that you must credibly demonstrate willingness to nuke countries. In other words, MAD means that if Iran is nuked by Israel, then Iran must nuke Israel in return. Palestinian lands occupied by Israelis will inevitably be irradiated in this scenario.
If there won’t be nuclear retaliation, then there wouldn’t be a need for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons in the first place.
Israel is a tiny, indefensible strip of land. Conventional munitions will suffice. Iran is already demonstrating sufficient ability to deter Israel, especially as better rocketry and precision targeting technology allows Iran to minimize collateral damage.
A “nuclear option” for dealing with Israel already exists. Knock out Israel’s desalination plants and you knock out 80% of Israel’s potable water.
Importance of Seawater Desalination and Wastewater Reuse in Israel, Noam Weisbrod is the Dean of the Desert Research Institute at Ben Gurion University. Episode recorded July 5, 2023:
Seawater desalination now provides ~ 80% of potable water in Israel from five major desalination plants. The five active plants provide ~ 600 million cubic meters/yr (mcm/yr). Prior to 2004 most water was supplied by the Sea of Galilee (capacity: ~ 4 km3), the Coastal Aquifer, and the Mountain Aquifer. Two additional desalination plants are being developed.
Before gung ho American Firsters🇺🇸 begin advocating for Iran to hit Israel’s desalination plants, keep in mind that if the Israelis are lacking for water, then the Israelis would very likely just take the Palestinians’ groundwater supplies for themselves.
There are no “nuclear options” for dealing with Israel which won’t irreparably harm Palestinians.
Israel being a tiny, indefensible strip of land is precisely why this latest round of conflict is clearly driven by American🇺🇸 dictates. All the worst effects of a major Israel-Iran war will be felt by people in the region: the Arabs (including the Palestinians), the Israelis and the Iranians.
Israel is a fragile colonial outpost that depends entirely on America🇺🇸 to exist. Ukraine’s war effort against Russia will collapse without American🇺🇸 backing. The same goes for Israel’s war against Iran. I hear Americans🇺🇸 whining about the coming price hikes due to the drop in oil supply. The Americans🇺🇸 forget that Israel’s existence is far, far more precarious. Water, one of the very basic needs for life, is not available in sufficient quantities to support the vast majority of the Israeli population. Israel’s growing population makes Israel even less inclined to war because existing groundwater supplies can’t provide for Israeli needs, meaning more desalination plants need to be constructed, making Israel more vulnerable than ever before.
Appealing to “insanity” or “fanaticism” to explain Israel wanting war is an appeal to stop thinking about the deeper causes behind events.
It’s the same mentality espoused by the American🇺🇸 Bill O’Reilly: “Tide goes in, tide goes out. Never a miscommunication. You can’t explain that.”
The tides do be crazy!
The reasons for Israeli aggression against Iran become clearer once you understand the petrodollar system.
The Deal That Keeps the Oil Flowing, Weatherhead Scholars Program Fellow Jenny B. Spalding is recently retired from a thirty-seven-year career with Saudi Aramco forecasting production, reserves, corporate planning, and oil field development. June 01, 2023:
The oil-for-security bargain was formally sealed in February 1945, in a meeting between President Roosevelt and King AbdulAziz bin Saud. Coming out of World War II, the US was in need of more energy supplies, and faced increasing international competition for Saudi oil. At the same time, Saudi Arabia was entering a new global order and sought protection for its resources. A pact was made that has endured for almost eighty years.
During the 1980s, the US developed the Carter Doctrine, which stated that the US would use force to protect “American” interests in the Middle East, and it did. During the Iran-Iraq war, US military presence kept open the Straits of Hormuz—a strategic choke point connecting the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean—and that promise has continued to this day. The height of the Carter Doctrine was the 1991 Gulf war, when US troops defended Saudi oil fields and Saudi Arabia provided funds and fuel.
Oil (natural gas) is needed to make fertilizer. Oil is needed for plastics. Oil is needed to run vehicles. You control the oil, you control the life of all human beings on Earth. And there is no price too high for life.
Wouldn’t it be swell to tie the demand for America’s currency with the demand for oil? The rest of the world would debase themselves and grovel before America, like selling their labor/products cheaply to America, just so that they can get their hands on American dollars which they need to buy oil, oil that is needed to keep their societies functioning.
Objectively, the war is driven by the need for regular Joe Americans🇺🇸 to enjoy a high standard of living that comes from America🇺🇸 maintaining a stranglehold over petroleum supply, which is required to prop up the demand for petrodollar, the same petrodollar that allows MoA barflies talk about their “cheap” adventures abroad in South America, Asia or Africa, when most people from those regions can’t even afford to leave their countries.
Death to America
Marg bar Âmrikâ
Marg bar Âmrikâ
Marg bar Âmrikâ
Posted by: All Under Heaven | Mar 27 2026 17:01 utc | 11
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