Last night Israel and U.S. fighter jets destroyed Bank Sepah’s data center in Tehran. Bank Sepah does the salaries payment for Iran’s military personal.
Following the strike Iran announced that it would target U.S. and Israeli banks in the region. Citibank and HSBC instructed staff in Dubai and other Gulf countries to evacuate their offices.
This is another step in the retreat of the U.S. from the Middle East.
Since the war began, around 15 ships have crossed the strait with most being dark-fleet vessels moving Iranian oil to China and India, according to Lloyds List Intelligence. Many are small Chinese tankers that make their presence and origin known to the Revolutionary Guard through loudspeakers and shortwave radio.
The U.S. has claimed, without evidence, that Iran has started to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. I do regard that as fake-news and unlikely to happen. Mines are a last resort as they do not discriminate between a ship’s nationality. They would also hit Iranian and Chinese tankers.
The U.S bombed some 16 random boats along the Iranian cost of Hormuz claiming that they were used to lay mines. But any boat with a $50 metal rack in rear, a mine technician and a map can be used to lay mines. (The mine technician and map are optional). Iran also has land based MLRS rocket launchers which can be used to remotely mine the Strait.
Mines can not be removed while a war is ongoing. Minesweepers are not armed and unprotected against attacks. In perfect timing the last four U.S. minesweepers stationed in the Gulf for the last 35 years and built for that purpose just arrived in Texas to be dismantled. They were replaced by three Little Crappy Ships (LCS) with mine sweeping equipment. LCS have never been tested in that role.
Iran has many other means beyond mines, like missiles or fast boats, to prevent ships it does not want to pass from using the Strait.
The U.S. Navy knows this. That is why it has rejected all requests to escort ships through the Strait.
The U.S. and its allies are doing their best to temporarily (archived) hold down crude prices by manipulating future markets and by releasing reserves. But it is impossible to do so for other products:
Jet fuel has doubled or even trebled from its previous level of around $90 a barrel – a move that dwarfs what has happened to crude.
The UN Trade and Development department has a good overview about the consequences of the closure of Hormuz Strait.
It blocks 39% of global seaborne crude trade, some 25% of seaborne LPG/LNG trade, 20% of refined products and 13% of chemicals including fertilizer.
Usually 67% of global Urea supplies, a major fertilizer, is coming from the Persian Gulf. Without fertilizers food prices will go up, especially in poor countries, with major social consequences following a few months later.
When the U.S. deployed those in 2016/17 the Chinese were miffed. They used economic screws to punish South Korea: tourism was stopped, K-Pop was banned, a South Korean chain store in China was shut down. Now, suddenly, the U.S. needs those systems for its own purpose and South Korea is left on its own. It is another country that learns the real value, i.e. none, of U.S. promises to protect it.
A Patriot system from South Korea is now being set up in Turkey to defend a U.S. early warning radar station from attacks by Iran. It is unknown yet where the THAAD system will go. But as Iran was able to destroy at least four of that kind it is unlikely to survive any exposure.
Ultimately, almost two weeks into the war, the fundamental problem is unchanged: not only did the US and Israel start an illegal and criminal war that has already brought much death and destruction to Iran and to the wider Middle Eastern region — but it looks like they did so with the idea that causing widespread death and destruction would in itself deliver results, or even worse with death and destruction as a strategic goal in itself.
