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War On Iran: “And then? What?”
Trump’s latest outburst, intended to cool the market, issued about an hour ago:
The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.” This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year “Reign of Terror.” Thank you for your attention to this matter.
President DONALD J. TRUMP
Fitting:
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Cartoon via Rob CampbellA relevant and revealing response to any of Trump’s proposed actions is: “And then? What?”
From the latest War Update by Hamidreza Azizi:
Iranian planning is no longer centered on absorbing strikes but on shaping the battlefield in advance. A concept described as “preemptive destruction” is emerging, involving continuous targeting of U.S. bases, logistics hubs, and staging areas in countries such as Kuwait and Bahrain to disrupt any potential ground or heliborne operation before it can be executed.
Maybe Trump is negotiating with Shah Jr.Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Mar 30 2026 17:46 utc | 125
That is precisely why the US and Israel are failing, though not literally Baby Shah.
You never see it said, but it’s the basic reason why the US/Israel operation has gone wrong, in depending on the idea that the regime was unpopular and ready to fall.
To recount what happened. Back in the 1970s, I remember it well, at the time of the revolution in the oil price after 1967. Loads of money for the oil states, of which Iran is one obviously. The difference of Iran from the Gulf States is that it is a large country with a large population, as opposed to UAE, for example, or Qatar, which have oil or gas but virtually no national population. The special characteristic of oil states is that nearly all the GDP goes to the government and not to the public to spend. The Shah did not let this wealth distribute, but kept it for himself and his circle. That was what provoked the revolution. He spent fabulous sums on the famous 2500th anniversary of the Persian monarchy at Persepolis. Everything was imported from Paris, nothing was made in Iran. I remember very well going to work in a village in Iran in 1974, having previously worked in a village in Jordan, under King Hussein. In Jordan, a country without oil, or even enough revenue to pay the functioning state, the village had a blacktop road from the highway, and electricity. In Iran, in spite of the oil, the village had neither. How could it come about? The wealthy country didn’t, the poor country did, have those amenities.
When the revolution came, the elites who’d benefitted fled, or were executed. The revolution was populist, though you had to pray. Those who fled were the old aristocracy, who felt themselves entitled to be the ruling class. And they’ve been trying to get their positions back every since. Evidently we’re now on the second generation, and it’s not quite the same, but they’re still whispering in the ears of the US powers, and indeed Israel, that the regime is weak and will fall at the first blow, in order to get their “rightful” privileges back.
Because that is what is bizarre, the populist religious regime did indeed keep their promises to the people, a nobility of principle that is witnessed in the readiness of Ayatollah Khamenei to prefer death over concealing his location. The last time I went to Iran, in 2019, it was obvious that the poverty of 1974 had disappeared, and society was more egalitarian, and the mullahs had kept their promises. True that the middle class I met were not keen on the regime, but it’s not obvious to me that they are the majority, as we’ve seen in many clashes.
Posted by: Laguerre | Mar 30 2026 18:49 utc | 164
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