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War On Iran: Trump Chickens Out – Who Lobbied For War – The Energy Dominance Aim
On Saturday U.S. president Donald Trump threatened to attack Iran’s electricity network and other infrastructure within 48 hours should it not reopen the Strait of Hormuz for all shipping:
“If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!” Trump posted on social media around 7:45 p.m. EDT (2345 GMT) on Saturday.
Iran responded by threatening retaliation against the infrastructure of U.S. client states in the Gulf. Any such attack would have devastating consequences:
“If Iran’s fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked by the enemy, all energy infrastructure, as well as information technology…and water desalination facilities, belonging to the US and the regime in the region will be targeted pursuant to previous warnings,” Iranian military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaqari said, according to state media.
On early Monday morning the markets reacted nervously. Treasuries, stocks and gold were all down.
As the markets threatened to tank, and shortly before the deadline Trump had given to Iran, he chickened out:
biggerI suspect, and Iranian sources confirm, that there have been no talks with Iran. Trump is inventing these talks to save himself from the catastrophic consequences any attempt to fulfill his threat would have entailed.
In five days, after the markets have closed for the week, Trump may well renew his threat.
—I had warned that, even if peace would happen today, it would still take many months to recover from oil and gas supply slumps. The Economist has made some calculations on how long it will it take for the oil and gas market to normalize:
Even the best-case scenario for energy markets is disastrous (archived)
Even if Donald Trump and Iran reached a deal to stop fighting tomorrow, it would thus be another four months before markets regained some semblance of normality. Producers elsewhere cannot crank up output fast enough to recover past losses. The result is to shave off some 3% of planned global oil production this year. Every month Ras Laffan stays shut, the world loses around 7m tonnes of lng—nearly 2% of projected annual supply. And full capacity will, owing to the latest strikes, be lower than before. The upshot is that production will fall 4% short of demand this year even if Qatar started pumping what it can today.
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Oil and gas traders are still banking on a spring miracle. The world is praying for one. But even if Mr Trump and Iran’s ayatollahs grant this wish, the logistics of oil and gas will not be easily appeased. Energy markets will be living with the war’s fallout well into northern winter.
My hunch is that these estimates are on the optimistic side of things.
—While crying crocodile tears over alleged innocent people sitting in jail in Iran the U.S. has been attacking prisons in Iran:
The Iranian Prisons Where Bombs Are Threatening Dissidents and Americans (archived) – WSJ
Airstrikes have damaged complexes used to hold political detainees, according to a Wall Street Journal visual investigation—putting their lives in danger
—A few more background pieces on how the war on Iran unfolded are coming out. It is hard to say how much these are myth-building or reality. Anyway – here is the gists of they are spreading:
Israel Thought It Could Spur Rebellion Inside Iran. That Hasn’t Happened. (archived) – NY Times
President Trump’s hopes that an Israeli plan to ignite an internal uprising against Iran’s theocratic government could bring the war to a swift end have so far been dashed.
Within days of the war’s beginning, said David Barnea, the Mossad chief, his service would likely be able to galvanize the Iranian opposition — igniting riots and other acts of rebellion that could even lead to the collapse of Iran’s government. Mr. Barnea also presented the proposal to senior Trump administration officials during a visit to Washington in mid-January.
Mr. Netanyahu adopted the plan. Despite doubts about its viability among senior American officials and some officials in other Israeli intelligence agencies, both he and President Trump seemed to embrace an optimistic outlook. Killing Iran’s leaders at the outset of the conflict, followed by a series of intelligence operations intended to encourage regime change, they thought, could lead to a mass uprising that might bring about a swift end to the war.
“Take over your government: It will be yours to take,” Mr. Trump told Iranians in his initial address at the war’s start, after saying they should first seek shelter from the bombing.
Three weeks into the war, an Iranian uprising has not yet materialized.
Trump’s Iran War Drive Exposes Limits of ‘Yes Sir’ Cabinet (archived) – Bloomberg
Those privately pressing Trump to strike Iran included Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, media mogul Rupert Murdoch and some conservative commentators, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations. The News Corp. founder communicated with Trump several times as he urged the president to take on Tehran, according to one person briefed on their interactions.
Meanwhile, some of Trump’s closest advisers were more muted about the prospect of an armed conflict, including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, the people said.
Few, if any, told him directly it was an ill-conceived idea. Wiles tried to ensure the president understood his options, the people said, while Vance urged top officials to speak candidly to the president and about the possibility of war. In private meetings before the attacks, Vance asked questions about how any war would work.
The above ‘blame Netanyahoo’ pieces are missing the big picture view. This war fits a long term U.S. strategy and thus had to happen:
America is Achieving Full-Spectrum Energy Dominance — And Nobody is Paying Attention
I have said it many times, and I will say it again: the United States does not lose wars. If it did, it would stop waging them. Whether Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, or Libya — failed states are not failures of Empire. They are the victories of Empire. And Empire is on a roll.
Now the same chorus rises over Iran. Left and right, the refrain is identical: this will be a disaster, America is overreaching, Iran will be its graveyard. The same voices. The same blindness. The same century-old script.
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Medhurst argues that the United States, far from stumbling into another disastrous West Asian quagmire, is executing a calculated seizure of the planet’s energy supply — and that the wars on Syria, Venezuela, Ukraine, and now Iran are not separate blunders but sequential steps toward a single goal: total energy dominance.
While energy dominance may be the over-arching aim Washington has there are doubts that it is achievable:
How the Iran war is turning America’s energy dominance into a mirage – The National
There are non-fossil energy alternatives coming up and penetrating the markets. Any attempt to monopolize fossil fuels and to ramp up its prices will increase the adoption of non-fossil alternatives and thereby defeat itself.
The Houthis have had over a year to protect and expand their infrastructure. Their missile and drone bases in northern Yemen (Saada, Hajjah, and the Sanaa area) have remained largely intact—the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have never systematically destroyed them. During this time, Iran has supplied them with Fateh-110, Qased, Zelzal-2, Sejjil variants, Shahed-136/238, and improved anti-ship missiles (C-802, Nour, Khalij Fars).
The Houthis can therefore launch an opening salvo of several hundred missiles and drones simultaneously—from intact, camouflaged positions.Scenario: Simultaneous large-scale strike hypothetical)Timing: Night attack (e.g., 2:30–3:30 a.m. local time) to achieve maximum surprise. Phase 1 – Opening salvo against Djibouti (Camp Lemonnier)
Camp Lemonnier is the only permanent U.S. base in Africa (approx. 4,000 soldiers, 82nd Airborne, Special Forces, MQ-9 drones, logistics hub). Salvo 1 (Ballistic): 40–60 Fateh-110 / Qased missiles (300–500 km range, 500–800 kg warhead) from northern Yemen. Target: Airfield, ammunition depot, command center, hangars for MQ-9 drones. Salvo 2 (Cruise + Drones): 80–120 Shahed-136/238 + improved Nour/C-802 (low-altitude flight, difficult to intercept). Target: Residential areas, fuel depots, radar and communications facilities. Salvo 3 (Anti-Radar): Special anti-radiation missiles (Iranian copies of the Kh-31) against the base’s Patriot and THAAD systems.
Phase 2: Iranian Simultaneous Strike on Western Saudi Arabia (King Fahd Air Base, Taif)While the Houthis strike, Iran fires directly from its own territory:Salvo 1 (Ballistic): 80–120 Khorramshahr-4 / Fattah-2 / Qadr missiles (1.8–2-ton warheads) from western and central Iranian provinces. Salvo 2 (Cruise + Drones): 150–200 Shahed-238 + Soumar cruise missiles (low-altitude flight). Salvo 3 (Anti-Radar): Special anti-radar missiles targeting Patriot and THAAD systems in Taif.
Target: King Fahd Air Base in Taif (the current main U.S. base in Saudi Arabia) + surrounding airfields and fuel depots. Result: Flight operations in Taif suspended for weeks (runways destroyed, hangars on fire, ammunition depot exploded). The U.S. loses its last major land base in the region.
Here’s the fictional nightmare scenario from the US War Room: The U.S. is about to launch a ground operation against Yemen or Kharg,
while the Ford is in the Suez Canal…
Before I describe to you the alarming reports coming out of the operations room in Washington, I must first speak of the long, quiet, and meticulous preparations the Houthis have carried out over the past three weeks. No one had anticipated these bases. They were located deep in the mountains of Saada and Hajjah, in caves and beneath artificial rock overhangs that had been equipped with state-of-the-art camouflage technology by Iranian engineers. For three weeks, Ansar Allah had calmly delivered, refueled, programmed, and mounted missiles and drones on mobile launchers—without a single American or Saudi drone detecting them. These were not known positions. They were new, previously unknown bases that opened fire for the first time that very night.
And then came the opening salvo.
Situation Room, Pentagon, Washington, D.C.March X, 2026, 2:37 a.m. Eastern TimeThe room was already full when the first reports came in. President Trump sat at the head of the table, flanked by the Secretary of Defense and the commanders of CENTCOM and AFRICOM. The large screens showed the positions of the Ford in the Suez Canal and the Lincoln in the Arabian Sea. General Smith (CENTCOM), his voice hoarse:
“Mr. President, the Houthis are striking. And they’re doing so from bases we didn’t even have on the map until now. The opening salvo is already on its way.”
2:37 a.m. – First report“Camp Lemonnier under heavy fire. First salvo: fifty to seventy Fateh-110 and Qased ballistic missiles, fired from previously unknown positions in northern Yemen. Warheads weighing seven hundred to eight hundred kilograms each. The airfield, the MQ-9 hangars, and the central ammunition depot have already been hit.
General Smith, loud and agitated:“Mr. President, this is exactly what we warned you about! Three weeks ago, we strongly advised you not to station the relief troops in Djibouti before we launched a preemptive strike on Yemen. Now the Houthis are striking half an hour before our planned preemptive strike—from positions we didn’t know about. This is no coincidence. This is a betrayal of our own planning!”
2:39 a.m. – Second wave on Djibouti“Now over 120 Shahed-136 and 238 drones are flying at low altitude, supported by Nour and C-802 cruise missiles. The Patriot and THAAD batteries have already been taken out. The fuel depots are burning. And now comes the worst: hundreds of speedboats, each carrying fifty Houthi fighters, are attacking the port. Every boat is armed with missiles and torpedoes. The relief ship ‘USNS Supply,’ carrying the last drones and landing troops, has just been hit by several torpedoes and missiles. It sinks within minutes. The surviving soldiers, trying to reach the shore, are met by Houthi machine-gun fire. This is a full-scale invasion by speedboat!”
2:41 a.m. – The Strike Against the Ford“The USS Gerald R. Ford is located precisely at the narrowest point of the Suez Canal, just ten kilometers south of Ismailia. First salvo: twenty to thirty anti-ship ballistic missiles of the Khalij Fars and Sejjil variants, each with a two-ton warhead. The flight deck is torn open, the forward elevators destroyed. Second salvo: over a hundred Shahed-136 and 238 plus C-802 missiles. An ammunition depot has exploded. The Ford is listing heavily. It is lying across the canal. Towing impossible.”
2:43 a.m. – The Lincoln and the escort ships“The USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea is under simultaneous attack by Iran. Fifty to sixty ballistic missiles and Shahed swarms. The destroyer USS Carney has taken a direct hit to the stern and is on fire. Two Supply-class supply ships are heavily damaged and adrift, unable to maneuver. The Lincoln reports damage to the flight deck and the ammunition magazine.”
2:45 a.m. – The Iranian large-scale attack on western Saudi Arabia“King Fahd Air Base near Taif is struck by over fifty Iranian Khorramshahr-4 and Fattah-2 missiles (warheads weighing 1.8 to 2 tons). Runways, hangars, and fuel depots are on fire. At the same time, the Houthis are attacking Saudi proxies in non-Houthi Yemen from the south: Marib and Aden are under massive fire from Shahed-238 and C-802 missiles. The airfields and ammunition depots there have been destroyed.” General Smith, now with undisguised anger:“Mr. President, this is exactly what we warned about! We told you: Do not station the troops in Djibouti until we have taken out Yemen preemptively. Now the Houthis are striking from completely intact, previously unknown bases—and we no longer have any nearby, operational bases.”
The president stared at the screens showing the Ford lying across the strait, Djibouti ablaze, and the Saudi bases in the west burning. The Situation Room was deathly quiet—all that could be heard was the soft hum of the computers and the heavy breathing of the generals. This was the moment when America realized that it had lost all its regional power that night.
OK, it’s a pipe dream, but I suppose we’re still allowed to dream – also serves as another formatting test …
Posted by: SonderstabF | Mar 23 2026 17:46 utc | 313
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