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March 15, 2026
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-057

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

Demilitarizing and denazifying Ukronazistan, on the other hand, are.

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 15 2026 20:06 utc | 101
 
Indeed, and in the process, quietly demilitarising NATO without NATO realising it is happening until it’s too late; they go looking in the cupboard for stuff to launch towards Iran, and suddenly there’s thin pickings.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 15 2026 20:12 utc | 101

Today Putin’s advisors told the EU (Macron particularly) to f#ck off when they demanded to have a ‘seat’ at the negotiation table. I hope they mean it, maybe they should hit Zelensky, Budanov and Rada as a statement.
 
Or what do I know, most people seem to think it’s net negative.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 15 2026 20:14 utc | 102

Iran is fighting back for real, has it started WW3 yet (WW3 by your definition, in reality it has been underway for a while now)?
 
Posted by: GM | Mar 15 2026 19:54 utc | 96
 
Iran denied it has attacked any NATO country besides USA who directly attacked it.
 
And by your twisted logic, all deaths are Khamenei’s fault because he didnt kill all the agitators who tried to destabilize Iran, like Trump, Netenyahu et al.  Trump killed Solemani over 6 years ago, yet khamenei didnt kill trump, so this whole war is his fault.
 
That’s the exact sophist liogic you tried to play on Putin, by claiming because he didnt kill Nuland or Obama he is responsible for all the deaths in the Rusdo-Ukrainian war.
 
You aren’t fooling anyone.  Your drooling little fan has always been a Helmer-tard, just like all the Helmer-brigaders that show up here within minutes of eachother and their sicks all trying to repeat the same talking points of the day.
 
It is clear you think if you post a million words, that you will trick someone into falling for your bullshit by pure chance, as if each word has a chance of conversion regardless of how retarded the meaning.

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 15 2026 20:15 utc | 103

For a completely different take from the back and forth compliments dominating todays thread:
What is Ukraine going to do with the price of oil, diesel, etc. going up? The EU is running short and I do not see any help coming from anywhere.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 15 2026 20:19 utc | 104

What is Ukraine going to do with the price of oil, diesel, etc. going up?

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Mar 15 2026 20:19 utc | 106
 
Accelerate towards its own demise is the best guess I can come up with.
 
Although there is a thriving network of illegal, unlicensed “filling stations” (this is Ukraine, after all) that are regularly raided and shut down. Theft of diesel from the military and from the railway is commonly reported, often with the involvement of employees on the inside.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 15 2026 20:26 utc | 105

Oh, and by the way —
 

How many Russian people died because Putin refused to end the war quickly because it was more importan for him to play political games in order to: 1) make yet another shitty for Russia but beneficial for oligarchs deal 2) not upset the “dear partners” in the West 3) not hurt his real masters in Tel Aviv
 
Posted by: GM | Mar 15 2026 18:36 utc | 64

 
Does that make Putin a Jew or just a shabbes goy? 
 
Some dog whistles are loud enough that even people can hear them.

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 15 2026 20:30 utc | 106

Ukraine and World Affairs: Weekly Update, 13th March 2026: May be Useful to Some:  Ukraine and World Affairs: Weekly Update

Posted by: The Busker | Mar 15 2026 20:32 utc | 107

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 15 2026 20:26 utc | 107
 
Like RSF collapsed in Sudan as UAE weapons cut off, Ukraine will quickly collapse as EU runs out of US provided weapons and fuel to supply to Ukraine.
 
What EU is facing is potentially a +1 trillion euro bill over coming years having to ‘price cap’ or subsidize for energy and food for its consumers to prevent economy and society from collapsing uncontrollably. Ukraine will be out of luck.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 15 2026 20:33 utc | 108

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 15 2026 20:30 utc | 108
 
he has claimed putin is a slave to the zionists many times.
 
When I bring up the fact Putin never sold weapons to Israel, called the war aggression by USrael, called the assassination of khamenei a murder, offered confolences for his murder, never condemned Iran for defending itself, never designated IRGC a terrorist organization ..
 
..he just argues that Putin does none of that because the west does it for him…
 
..not even joking.  That’s his “logic”.

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 15 2026 20:38 utc | 109

UWDude is completely wrecking this board with his unbelievably stupid trolling. Doesn’t this board have any moderators?

Posted by: rageman | Mar 15 2026 20:39 utc | 110

Ukraine will be out of luck.
 
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 15 2026 20:33 utc | 110
 
but dont ever credit Putin for predicting and incorporating into his long term strategy  NATO fucking itself up and attacking Iran.

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 15 2026 20:41 utc | 111

@ malenkov | Mar 15 2026 20:30 utc | 108
 
Elsewhere in the bar, there seems to be increasing scepticism over whether “his real masters in Tel Aviv” are still alive…
 
Wonder why they haven’t set up a 24/7 Zelensky-style Telethon?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 15 2026 20:41 utc | 112

@ UWDude | Mar 15 2026 20:38 utc | 111
 
Well, who knows? Maybe Putin would sell weapons to Bibi if he (VVP) gave him the money for the “purchase”. You know, like the USA does. But evil old Zio-Putin won’t give Bibi the money…

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 15 2026 20:42 utc | 113

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 15 2026 20:38 utc | 111
 
I have heard that the S-300 Russia sold or supplied to Syria was supposedly export-license restricted to only hitting missiles instead of aircraft (this would have favored Israel) but no idea whether that is true. It could just be fake news.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 15 2026 20:43 utc | 114

Doesn’t this board have any moderators?
 
Posted by: rageman | Mar 15 2026 20:39 utc | 112
 
if it did, they would have banned you and “switched device” a long time ago for socking
 
oh, called it, sock troll could only stay away 55 minutes:
 

I’m going to bow out for today. Cheers.
 
Posted by: switched devices and cannot remember | Mar 15 2026 19:54 utc | 94
 
ie
 
new sock coming. Long time lurker, first time pister, start out thanking b, then talking about what an echo chamber we are, and how we should respect shadowbanned’s sock, GM.
 

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 15 2026 19:58 utc | 98

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 15 2026 20:44 utc | 115

the war on Iran is helping Russia.  
 
Posted by: UWDude | Mar 15 2026 20:02 utc | 99

 
How fucking out of touch with reality does someone have to be to say that?
 
Do you have an idea what happens to Russia once Iran falls?
 
The same thing that started happening to Iran immediately after Syria fell. 
 
That’s the next domino. 
 
Which is why Putin was obligated to go to nuclear war if needed to protect Syria. Instead he kidnapped Assad and handed it over on a plate to his masters in Tel Aviv and DC.

Posted by: GM | Mar 15 2026 20:56 utc | 116

Does that make Putin a Jew or just a shabbes goy?  Some dog whistles are loud enough that even people can hear them.
Posted by: malenkov | Mar 15 2026 20:30 utc | 108

 
For the record, I don’t hate Jews.  I hate Nazis. The Jews just happen to be the new Nazis. But much more formiddable once, because of their high level of organization and infilitration everywhere. They have to be resisted the same way the Nazis were. But only the Shia are doing it now.

Posted by: GM | Mar 15 2026 20:59 utc | 117

Do you have an idea what happens to Russia once Iran falls?
 
Posted by: GM | Mar 15 2026 20:56 utc | 118
 
oh, yes, I forgot how you use your own prefictions of doom as “facts” to build your sophist arguments upon.

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 15 2026 21:00 utc | 118

but dont ever credit Putin for predicting and incorporating into his long term strategy NATO fucking itself up and attacking Iran.

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 15 2026 20:41 utc | 113
 
I’d extend the credit to the entire team, or even department, of highly-intelligent, highly-educated Russian analysts and planners, who worked out many options and presented the alternative choices for political and military decision making.
 
If Russia had steamed in, “shock and awe” style, in 2022, getting bogged down against Western-backed guerilla campaigns, the conversation here and elsewhere would be completely different today.
 
By running the SMO as a campaign of limited force but extended time, all sorts of secondary and tertiary effects are allowed to develop, mainly to the West’s detriment.
 
The West is now trapped.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 15 2026 21:00 utc | 119

Which is why Putin was obligated to go to nuclear war if needed to protect Syria. 
 
Posted by: GM | Mar 15 2026 20:56 utc | 118
 
This must be another one of your fantasy laws where Putin has to do everything you say or he’s a traitor.

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 15 2026 21:02 utc | 120

Do you have an idea what happens to Russia once Iran falls?

Posted by: GM | Mar 15 2026 20:56 utc | 118
 
On what basis do you presume Iran falls? Where is your data?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 15 2026 21:03 utc | 121

Ukraine is going the opposite way of being “demilitarized”. 
Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 15 2026 17:56 utc | 48
no amount of foreign aid can mobilize a corpse

Posted by: nwwoods | Mar 15 2026 21:04 utc | 122

I know this is the Ukraine thread, but the idea of Iran falling seems premature, to say the least.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 15 2026 21:07 utc | 123

I have heard that the S-300 Russia sold or supplied to Syria was supposedly export-license restricted to only hitting missiles instead of aircraft (this would have favored Israel) but no idea whether that is true. It could just be fake news.
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 15 2026 20:43 utc | 116

 
It is true, but that’s only one level of betrayal out of many.
 
Ther is the S-300 matter.
 
Then there is the general arms supply issue. Remember that Medvedev was president for the first year after the Syria war started. And there had been existing contracts already. After all, Syria had been a faithful Russian ally since the 1960s. The most important one in fact. There were no issues under Medvedev.
 
Then Putin took power back in 2012 and started stalling supplies, including the already contracted ones. 
 
Then he played the good cop to Obama’s bad cop in disarming Syria of its WMD deterrent. For which to this day he is praised as a diplomatic genius by the usual sycophants, when in reality this was the most obvious good cop/bad cop con job ever. Once the deterrent was gone, the Israelis were free to start bombing at will.
 
Then he did enter the war, but only half heartedly. The military wanted to go in properly and clear the whole of Syria of invaders. That would have meant a lot more AD and lots of other assets. And telling the Israelis, Turks and Americans to fuck off. Putin vetoed that and scaled back the operation to one fifth of what it should have been. Where else have we seen such actions from him? Hmmm….
 
The result was an effective paritioning of Syria and occupation of large portions of it by the US and Turkey. With the tacit agreement of Putin. and lots of teeth gnashing in the General Staff and the GRU.
 
Despite all that betrayal and backstabbing, the combination of the SAA, Russia military (even if shackled), Wagner, Hezbollah and Iran managed to win the war. But not quite, unfortunately, because then the next stab in the back came, in the form of Astana, and the order to leave Idlib alone evne though it was just about to be cleared of the Jolani bashibozuk. Which inevitably reminds us that it isn’t just Putin to blame here — you hear all the time by the usual suspects how Lavrov is the greatest diplomat of the 21st century, blah-blah-blah. Based on what? The fact he has been the FM for so long? That is certainly not a valid argument — it’s like saying that Charles II of Spain was a great monarch because he ruled for 35 years. What is the actual track record? One obviously catastrophic treasonous deal after another that then predictably, and as in fact predicted at the time it was signed, blew up in Russia’s face. Astana and Minsk being the finest examples. 
 
And then Putin washed his hands of the whole thing, let Syria rot, did not help with sanction evasion in any meaningful way, allowed the country to be bombed every week by Israel, it was gradually hollowed out.
 
In the end Assad was kidnapped on his orders and shipped to Moscow, where there has been no proof of life for him for 15 months now. 
 
Jolani was installed as the new president. And Putin accepted him the Kremlin, shook his hand and hugged him. Twice.
 
And still most people think Putin genuinely tried to save Syria, but you see, what could he have done, the Syrians themselves could not be helped any further. 

Posted by: GM | Mar 15 2026 21:15 utc | 124

no amount of foreign aid can mobilize a corpse

Posted by: nwwoods | Mar 15 2026 21:04 utc | 124
 
But it helps the funeral directors to buy their Monaco/Miami seafront properties…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 15 2026 21:18 utc | 125

Speculations on the strengths/weaknesses of ‘Putin’ are secondary to the strengths/weaknesses of Russia as a social formation. ‘Russia’ & ‘Putin’ are convenient shorthands but we’re dealing with different classes, ruling class factions etc with different interests and priorities.
 
The fact that the SMO started at all suggested to me that the ‘Patriotic’ faction (military, MIC, working class and the ‘national’ capitalists whose profits derive from domestic consumption) has gained the upper hand over the ‘Comprador’ faction dependent on finance and resource trade with the West. The demands of a proxy war with NATO would seem to further empower the Patriots, but this seems not to have played out.
 
I’d like to hear from GM, S, Constantine etc regarding how the different factions stack up in Russia, rather than interminable arguments over ‘Putin’.

Posted by: S.P. Korolev | Mar 15 2026 21:19 utc | 126

>muh Ukraine thread
>muh rehash of misunderstanding the dumping of the Syrian nest of angry snakes into the West’s lap…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 15 2026 21:21 utc | 127

Posted by: rageman | Mar 15 2026 20:39 utc | 112
UWDude is completely wrecking this board with his unbelievably stupid trolling. Doesn’t this board have any moderators?

 
I strongly disagree with this comment!
I admire and applaud the effort UW puts into responding to the AI generated “contributions” of GM,  which I suspect is a creation of the British MI6 pongos-Brigade 77 or whatever.
I also note that Malenkov  responds to the GM drivel on a fairly regular basis.Kudos Malenkov!
 

These efforts by UW and Malenkov seem to have prompted the GM owners to activate a few socck puppets like Swthed devices, rageman  etc.  

Personally, I have neither the patience or resources to give the comments by GM and the other AI drongos spawned by MI6 or whatever any serious consideration.  If some day the despicable Putin does drop a hydrogen bomb on London, then I may take more interest.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Mar 15 2026 21:22 utc | 128

Let us also appreciate GM’s moronic oxymoronic logic by declaring Iran knows how to win a war (unlike Putin) while also declaring Iran will lose the war.

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 15 2026 21:23 utc | 129

I know this is the Ukraine thread, but the idea of Iran falling seems premature, to say the least.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 15 2026 21:07 utc | 125

 
Iran doesn’t fall only if:
1) A Qaem-100 with a 300-kt warhead is fired towards Florida and explodes somewhere 100-150 km off the coast. Then the Israel nuclear arsenal is evaporated with hypersonic nuclear strikes and Israel itself is wiped out fully. Thus eliminating physically the threat that would have remained even after the announcement of Iran having nuclear deterrent while demonstrating the effective deterrent towards the US in a way that will actually force them to back off, i.e. ICBMs with serous thermonuclear warheads, not Hiroshima-sized firecrackers, and real deadly intent to use them.
Or:
2) Russia and China enter the war directly on Iran’s side, the way they did in Vietnam. Not like they did in Syria.
But Russia and China have so far completely betrayed/sold out Iran. And I don’t see any Qaem-100s flying anywhere.
So the trajectory is the Syrian one. It will take a long time, but the enemy is unrelenting so eventually they will achieve what they want, unless a power greater than Iran stops them.
 
I know that revisiting what the conventional wisdom was in the past is not a favorite exercise for most people here. If it was, they would have compared what was unthinkable according to themselves regarding Russia a few years ago and what they are accepting as totally no big deal now. But let’s make another appeal to their integrity and ask them to remember what people were saying about Syria back in 2023 and early 2024. And what happened in late 2024. 

Posted by: GM | Mar 15 2026 21:26 utc | 130

Let us also appreciate GM’s moronic oxymoronic logic by declaring Iran knows how to win a war (unlike Putin) while also declaring Iran will lose the war.
Posted by: UWDude | Mar 15 2026 21:23 utc | 131

 
Sound judgement about the strategic situation combined with the Shia fighting spirit do not on their own overcome material realities.   

Posted by: GM | Mar 15 2026 21:28 utc | 131

I’d like to hear from GM, S, Constantine etc regarding how the different factions stack up in Russia, rather than interminable arguments over ‘Putin’.

Posted by: S.P. Korolev | Mar 15 2026 21:19 utc | 128
 
The trouble is they can’t, or won’t, because the personalisation around ‘Putin’ is a classic Western propaganda technique. They don’t have a clue about how true policy formulation or decision-making happens in Russia.
 
I’d recommend karlof1’s Substack here: https://karlof1.substack.com/ including translations from conferences and deliberations among the Russian government.
 
I wish you good luck in getting an objective response from those you mention.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 15 2026 21:31 utc | 132

I’d like to hear from GM, S, Constantine etc regarding how the different factions stack up in Russia, rather than interminable arguments over ‘Putin’.
Posted by: S.P. Korolev | Mar 15 2026 21:19 utc | 128

 
Kiril Dmitriev was sent to Florida again a few days ago. Not to Kolyma.
 
That is how they stack.

Posted by: GM | Mar 15 2026 21:31 utc | 133

Posted by: GM | Mar 15 2026 21:26 utc | 132
 
Another GM classic  tactic:  declare there are only two options as fact, even when there are literally limitless scenarios.
 
But no, because he says so, with lots of emphatic words, it must be true.
 
 

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 15 2026 21:33 utc | 134

Also:
 
https://t.me/ks_strigunov/3816
 

A monument to the Kazakh separatist and decolonizer Alikhan Bukeikhan has been erected in Moscow.
Bukeikhan is a remarkable figure, having carried out subversive activities in the Russian Empire, during the Revolution, and under Soviet rule.
Between 1896 and 1917, he was imprisoned three times by the Tsar (in Omsk, Pavlodar, and Semipalatinsk). Interestingly, during the Russian Empire, he served not only in prisons but also in the State Duma, as the elite of that time, as they still do today, loved to flirt with such separatists.
Later, in 1919, he was arrested along with the entire delegation of the “Alash Orda” government by order of Kolchak. During the Soviet period, the leader of “Alash” was imprisoned three times in Karkaraly and Orenburg (in 1922), and twice in Moscow’s Butyrka prison (in 1926 and 1937), along with other “brothers,” for separatism and plotting terrorist attacks.
Quote from a Kazakh website:

“Alikhan Bukeikhan waged his struggle against the colonial policies of Imperial Russia solely within the existing laws, enduring prison and exile. Together with representatives of the progressive Russian intelligentsia and progressive parties, he sought to reform the colonial metropolis itself into a genuinely legal and democratic federal state . “

Now, Kazakh businessmen and politicians simply paid off whoever they wanted and erected a monument to a separatist right at VDNKh. It’s a disgrace.

Posted by: GM | Mar 15 2026 21:33 utc | 135

Sound judgement about the strategic situation combined with the Shia fighting spirit do not on their own overcome material realities.   
 
Posted by: GM | Mar 15 2026 21:28 utc | 133
 
look st all the reinforcing words! 
 
“Sound”  “material realities”  
 
sounds so factual…. must be factual….

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 15 2026 21:36 utc | 136

@ GM | Mar 15 2026 21:26 utc | 132
 
Either you really don’t have what you are talking about, or you are copypasting LLM output from a series of input prompts that reflect your personal biases.
 
Next time you do an input, don’t forget to include 90 million people who are united in their outrage at the attacks on their nation, their belief systems and their heritage.
 
Don’t forget to include the US/NATO stockpile depletion, or the generally piss-poor performance of their air defence systems…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 15 2026 21:39 utc | 137

Posted by: GM | Mar 15 2026 21:33 utc | 137
 
A statue!?  Russia is doomed.  I dont think anyone is understanding the absolute gravity of what just happened to Rusdia.
Quite literally, a statue jas been erected for some guy from over a hundred years ago!  This is a statue right there in a country bordering Russia!
 
And Putin doesn’t lift a finger!  He should nuke khazakstan, yet he just lets them get away with it because he is beholden to the oligarchs.

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 15 2026 21:40 utc | 138

The US will fall before Iran does.
 
Who here finds that thought scary? Who finds it uplifting?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 15 2026 21:42 utc | 139

Anyway, back to Ukraine:

Russians hit checkpoint near Chernihiv Region with drone. Serviceman killed

Russian occupation forces shot down a drone near a checkpoint in the village of Novoselivka, Chernihiv Region, killing one serviceman. The head of the Chernihiv City Military Administration Dmytro Bryzhynskyi reported this on his Telegram channel on Sunday, March 15,
 
Bryzhynskyi noted that an enemy drone struck near a checkpoint in the village of Novoselivka, Kyselivska community, Chernihiv District. One serviceman was killed in the attack, another serviceman and a police officer were wounded.
 
“The detonation of unidentified explosive items dropped from a UAV is ongoing at the scene, the relevant services are working,” the City Military Administration head wrote.
 
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, on March 15, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that this week the aggressor country russia attacked Ukraine with 1,770 attack drones, more than 1,530 KABs and 86 missiles.
 
On March 15, the military of the aggressor country russia launched an FPV drone at an ambulance, which was traveling on the road in the village of Chervona Khvylia of the Velykyi Burluk community of the Kupiansk District. There are killed and wounded.

https://ukranews.com/en/news/1140089-russians-hit-a-checkpoint-near-chernihiv-region-with-a-drone-a-soldier-was-killed
 
Meh, it’s not that deep into Ukraine though…

 

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 15 2026 21:55 utc | 140

FWIW, in his recent podcasts Larry Johnson has crunched some numbers about Patriot PAC-3 production and concluded that, even if the last 10 years production had all gone to Ukraine, it would still only be enough to theoretically shoot down one-fifth of the cruise and ballistic missiles Russia has sent.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 15 2026 22:02 utc | 141

Haven’t been on this thread for awhile. Seeing the amount of butthurt going on tells me Russia is still killing it. Literally. 

Posted by: Suresh | Mar 15 2026 22:10 utc | 142

GM | Mar 15 2026 21:31 utc | 135
 
Ouch! No one deserves a few months above the Arctic circle doing real work for Russia than Dimitriev. Looking into why he’s sunning it up in Mar e Largo instead of being re-educated in Kolyma is an important question, especially if we intend to move on to ‘What Is to Be Done’. How did Dimitriev and his ilk gain the upper hand and what options do the ‘Patriots’ have to oppose a deal that leaves the Ukrainian Nazi state intact with a military force still capable of constraining Russia’s freedom of action? Like most Westerners I’m poorly informed when it comes to Russia’s internal politics, so commentators like yourself, S and Constantine who have a better grasp of these issues are great to have around.

Posted by: S.P. Korolev | Mar 15 2026 22:17 utc | 143

EU is in a pickle soon with food crisis with the changing climate, rising gas price, Farmers retirement & Children in the city, Competition with cheaper overseas goods, Fertilizer price rise, Russian fertilizer ban. 
 
Decades of clueless armchair officials making ridiculous rules to restrict EU farmers to steal their lands through bankruptcy.
 
When the EU start buying foods from overseas in the future they will realize poor countries would rather ban food exports than eating monopoly papers. 

Posted by: KillerDoll | Mar 15 2026 22:25 utc | 144

EU is in a pickle soon with food crisis with the changing climate, rising gas price, Farmers retirement & Children in the city, Competition with cheaper overseas goods, Fertilizer price rise, Russian fertilizer ban.  Decades of clueless armchair officials making ridiculous rules to restrict EU farmers to steal their lands through bankruptcy. When the EU start buying foods from overseas in the future they will realize poor countries would rather ban food exports than eating monopoly papers. 
Posted by: KillerDoll | Mar 15 2026 22:25 utc | 147

 
People were saying back in 2022 that Europe and Ukraine were going to freeze without Russian gas. However when that didn’t happen winter 2022-2023 they said it was due to a mild winter. Since then Europe and Ukraine have gone through 3 more winters just fine. The doom and gloom about what will happen to Europe never materializes. 

Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 15 2026 22:34 utc | 145

Interesting that nobody has acknowledged Ukraine’s brewing financial crisis.
 
Oh well, nothing has gone wrong so far, so nothing can possibly go wrong in the future…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 15 2026 22:46 utc | 146

Yup. 
Breach triple confirmed. 
cathedral. 

Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 15 2026 23:19 utc | 147

To those frothing at the mouth about Russia’s recent UN vote reharding the latest war… …Iran also just abstained from the vote condemning Russia for invading Ukraine.
Posted by: UWDude | Mar 15 2026 16:21 utc | 2
 
Just a clarification. The Iran Security Council Resolution was not a Chapter 7 resolution; it was a Chapter 6 resolution. Therefore, it has no power of enforcement. It cannot be used to justify any form of attack, or aggression, or no-fly zone, or anything against Iran, by law. This is why Russia and China abstained, instead of vetoing it. The vote on Ukraine is a General Assembly resolution, which has even less teeth than the Chapter 6 resolution.  A big nothingburger all the way around.

Posted by: James M. | Mar 16 2026 0:02 utc | 148

Yup. Breach triple confirmed. cathedral. 
 
Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 15 2026 23:19 utc | 150

 
Either you’re referring to something to which I am not privy, or you’ve finally reached Peak Finnegan’s Wake. 

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 16 2026 0:02 utc | 149

RUAF methodical offensive on the Gulyapole – Orekhov line has started.
 
Meanwhile RUAF made significant breakthrough in Konstantinovka and ambushed a lot of AFU reinforcements coming down from Druzhovka.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 16 2026 0:09 utc | 150

Russia is just rolling over and exposing its belly for further hits. A giant version of whatever small defenseless country that th US has beaten up on in the past that you want to use as an example.
 
Posted by: GM | Mar 15 2026 16:30 utc | 4

Jesus the cope from you Americans is unreal

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Mar 16 2026 0:09 utc | 151

The doom and gloom about what will happen to Europe never materializes. 
 
Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 15 2026 22:34 utc | 148

The USD can only collapse once. As the graat philosopher Heinz taught us, the best things come to thise who wait. Patience, padawan. Soon you will be wishing for those days of ‘nothing happening’.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Mar 16 2026 0:11 utc | 152

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Mar 16 2026 0:09 utc | 154
 
#####
 
The end of the Empire will yield a lot of gnashing and wailing.
 
Psychological breaks as people realize that what they thought was the truth was always well-curated lies.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 16 2026 0:13 utc | 153

And Putin doesn’t lift a finger! He should nuke khazakstan, yet he just lets them get away with it because he is beholden to the oligarchs.
 
Posted by: UWDude | Mar 15 2026 21:40 utc | 140

Its true, Putin should nuke Brussels since they made a mean social media post. And Poland talked tough! Russia is doomed. 
 
DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED I tell you.
 
Meanwhile in the real world, Trump seems to have accelerated the decline of America by at least an order of magnitude. No?

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Mar 16 2026 0:14 utc | 154

 People were saying back in 2022 that Europe and Ukraine were going to freeze without Russian gas. However when that didn’t happen winter 2022-2023 they said it was due to a mild winter. Since then Europe and Ukraine have gone through 3 more winters just fine. The doom and gloom about what will happen to Europe never materializes. 
Posted by: MiniMO | Mar 15 2026 22:34 utc | 148

Europe is not fine. They had to spend 800 billion euros to food and energy subsidies during 2023-2024 (confirmed by Borrell and EU commission stats). Other costs to German economy run probably around 500 billion or more by now. Then you have direct Ukraine support running in several hundreds of billions.
 
Now, it’s very likely EU will be hit with +1 trillion euro bill for food and energy subsidies. Subsidizing oil companies has already started. So much for the ‘Green Transition’ which has also cost probably more than a trillion, lol.
 
The reason 2022 didn’t produce critical damage to Europe was because despite all the sanctions, global movement of oil, gas and fertilizers kept going, the stuff just rerouted to Europe with 30-50% above spot prices for everything, oil, gas and ferts.
 
This time Australia is showing the way, having fuel shortages. Next will be polymers, then food packaging and food shortages. This is most likely coming soon to Europe.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 16 2026 0:17 utc | 155

Fuck me! ukraine thread was so calm and slow, back to shitland again
 
No marat, not even tass details AFU casualties 1.315 but another AD destroyed.
 
Not sure I’ll be back soon, maybe anyone has something
 
Meanwhile above 100 usd oil will certainly help RF

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 16 2026 0:23 utc | 156

Who protects Zelensky and his government from a coup or revolution? 
I ask, because the Ukraine people must want the war to end.   After Ukraine men are sent kicking and screaming to the front…they put up a good fight.  
 
Why don’t the Ukrainian men fight the Ukraine government or stage a coup before they’re sent to die?   What am I missing?
 
 
“The enemy is anybody who’s going to get you killed, no matter which side he is on.  It doesn’t make a damned bit of difference who wins the war to someone who’s dead.”  – Catch 22

Posted by: Fredrick | Mar 16 2026 0:29 utc | 157

Who protects Zelensky and his government from a coup or revolution?
 
Posted by: Fredrick | Mar 16 2026 0:29 utc | 160
 
#####
 
Probably no one, which is good for Russia. Ukraine is draining NATO of officers and materiel.
 
Zelensky is very valuable to the Kremlin now. The more he whines, the more stress NATO comes under.
 
The Ukrainian people in the West won’t revolt. The Ukrainians who would and did revolt were in th East.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 16 2026 0:34 utc | 158

Why don’t the Ukrainian men fight the Ukraine government or stage a coup before they’re sent to die?   What am I missing?
 
Posted by: Fredrick | Mar 16 2026 0:29 utc | 160

 
A successful coup requires a critical mass of forces in the right place, at the right time, with the right opportunity. Disunited babushkas and their draft-dodging offspring hardly qualify.
 
And even when the right elements are in place, coups, even against failing regimes, frequently fail. Ask Claus von Stauffenberg.

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 16 2026 0:43 utc | 159

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 16 2026 0:17 utc | 158
 
Australia’s agriculture uses a lot of urea based fertiliser and ammonium nitrate given the nitrogen deficient relict soils, and so does the additive that has to go in the diesel motors of the principal truck-based transport industry. A lot of Australians also drive diesel cars that use the same additives. Most long distant trains used for transport are also diesel-electric.
 
So many other products are made from hydrocarbons as well such as agricultural insecticides, herbicides, fungicides etc, then there’s organic solvents and lubricants, glues used industry,  and even pharmaceutical products. 

Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Mar 16 2026 0:53 utc | 160

so no news re UK and French Ambassadors being hauled in for public humiliation, or are theh just reporting back to base for the top dogs to respond?
 
meanwhile DT says USA oil companies are going to make extra 63+b dollars( its home customers plus exports….might help to cover the war a bit.

Posted by: Jo | Mar 16 2026 1:04 utc | 161

meanwhile DT says USA oil companies are going to make extra 63+b dollars( its home customers plus exports….might help to cover the war a bit.
 
Posted by: Jo | Mar 16 2026 1:04 utc | 164

 
— assuming, recklessly, that those oil companies pay taxes.

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 16 2026 1:06 utc | 162

war calculator says near enough
 
21,180,000,000$

Posted by: Jo | Mar 16 2026 1:08 utc | 163

Nice for the oil companies, stuff the people. How much is Trump et al making ?

Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Mar 16 2026 1:36 utc | 164

A bit of irony : Ukrainians leaders have been busy stuffing their pockets with western money, waiting till the last minute to flee to Israel (plan A).
 
Israel leaders have been busy stuffing their pockets, waiting till the last minute to flee to Crimea (plan A) or Ukraine, the New Israel (plan B). Now it will be Patagonia (plan C). I propose Malvinas/Falklands (plan D). They can try to plant olive trees there. Good luck.

Posted by: Asian Frog | Mar 16 2026 2:21 utc | 165

My take on it:
 
The US is not in a great place right now.  They are making a last ditch effort to goad Russia into making a mistake.  They are sinking Russian tankers, and launching nightly Shock and Awe attacks from Ukraine into Russia.
 
However, the US launched over 600 drones in 24 hours.
 
Now Russia has to take a dramatic step.  2 possibilities came to mind.  Iranian style drone attacks against Sweden and UK, the two US allies that helped the US poke Russia the most.  6 waves a day, 4 hours between waves, attacking military and energy facilities in both nations.  Just like the Swedish and UK attacks on Russia.  The other option would be to sink every last US ship anywhere near Iran.  Turn the US into a North American power only.
 
600 drones is too many drones to let slide.  Not to mention the hundreds (thousands?) of drones over the last few weeks.

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 16 2026 3:16 utc | 166

@ Woke American | Mar 16 2026 3:16 utc | 169 without a link to support their claim
 

Based on available reports as of March 15, 2026, there is no evidence that the United States launched over 600 drones against Russia in 24 hours.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 16 2026 3:29 utc | 167

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 16 2026 3:29 utc | 170
 
Double checking sources.  Give me a half an hour.

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 16 2026 3:40 utc | 168

2 sources.  Source 1 is Military Channel.
 
https://youtu.be/53RgiA8yxOM 
 
He displays some of the Russian mod reports, like between 8am and 2pm 125 drones were shot down.  Then at the 15 minute mark he states that all in all, over the whole day Russia shot down around 600 drones.
 
Second source states an actual number of 640 or so total drones for the day, which he also got from adding up the numbers in multiple Russian mod reports.  Let me find the exact place where the 640 number is reported.
 
 

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 16 2026 3:47 utc | 169

Not 640.  605 drones + 2 Neptune Missiles + 12 Himars Projectiles.  Sorry for misremembering the 640 number.  Video presenter quotes Ria Novosti, and shows the Ria Novosti website. 
https://youtu.be/dQ4AeeMdSvA
 
Time starts at around 5 minutes.
 

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 16 2026 3:58 utc | 170

https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/international_safety/1434131/
 

3 December 2024 17:26
 
Fundamentals of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence
 
[….]
 
III. Conditions for the Transition of the Russian Federationto the Employment of Nuclear Weapons
 
18. The Russian Federation reserves the right to employ nuclear weapons in response to the employment of nuclear and (or) other types of weapons of mass destruction against itself and (or) its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) the Republic of Belarus as participants in the Union State with the employment of conventional weapons, which creates a critical threat to their sovereignty and (or) territorial integrity.
 
19. The conditions that enable the possibility of nuclear weapons employment by the Russian Federation are as follows:
 
a) receipt of reliable data on the launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territories of the Russian Federation and (or) its allies;
 
b) employment of nuclear or other types of weapons of mass destruction by an adversary against the territories of the Russian Federation and (or) its allies, against facilities and (or) military formations of the Russian Federation located outside its territory;
 
c) actions by an adversary affecting elements of critically important state or military infrastructure of the Russian Federation, the disablement of which would disrupt response actions by nuclear forces;
 
d) aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) the Republic of Belarus as participants in the Union State with the employment of conventional weapons, which creates a critical threat to their sovereignty and (or) territorial integrity;
 
e) receipt of reliable data on the massive launch (take-off) of air and space attack means (strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, unmanned, hypersonic and other aerial vehicles) and their crossing of the state border of the Russian Federation.
 
20. The decision to employ nuclear weapons is made by the President of the Russian Federation.
 
21. The President of the Russian Federation may, if necessary, inform the military-political leadership of other states and (or) international organizations about the readiness of the Russian Federation to employ nuclear weapons or of the decision taken to employ nuclear weapons, as well as of the fact of their employment.

 
Points 19a, 19c, 19d, and 19e have all been grossly violated, 19e every day, and escalating. In fact 19b has been violated too, but covertly. But let’s set that aside for the moment.
 
Launching 600+ large fixed-wing drones is not a “massive launch”?

Posted by: GM | Mar 16 2026 4:02 utc | 171

One last comment:  The presenter of the second video I mentioned later on says something I was thinking about earlier:  The US now creates its own stock of cheap drones.    The US has caught up in drone production.
 
His point of mentioning this is:  Russia can not necessarily afford to wait TOO long.  Should Russia wait it out hoping for the US to economically collapse before it militarily produces enough weapons to overwhelm Russia?
 
We’ll see what Russia decides.
 
 

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 16 2026 4:04 utc | 172

Launching 600+ large fixed-wing drones is not a “massive launch”?
Posted by: GM | Mar 16 2026 4:02 utc | 174
 
In the second video, the Russian presenter was quite upset.  In the video, he made it quite clear that he is … VERY, no VERY VERY, no worse than that… ABSOLUTELY TOTALLY PISSED with Putin.  He was always more hawkish than Putin.  But he is losing patience with him.  Well… lost patience.
 
I’ll add another thought:  Russia recently declared they had a new General Commander with his new more aggressive philosophy.  They sent out all the Russian signals for “let’s DO this”.  The US checked out some of Karlof1’s work on how to decipher Russian propaganda, figured things out, and laid the gauntlet down:  ok here are 600 drones (and 2 missiles and 12 himars projectiles).  BALL IS IN YOUR COURT.
 
All we can do is wait and see.

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 16 2026 4:17 utc | 173

@ Woke American | Mar 16 2026 4:04 utc | 175 with the follow up…thx
 
Now that you have shown the desperation the the US/Ukraine is exhibiting I will repeat my contention that Ukraine is just one of the theaters of our civilization war and there is MAD contextualization going on with Ukraine, Iran, Taiwan, Venezuela, etc…….don’t want the bully to use nukes but to go down, regardless
I also see the desperation use of armaments as a good sign because the US side is running low on rare earths to build more weapons because of China restrictions….which I don’t see going away at the end of the month visit to China and expect the visibility of the military rare earth restrictions to get more press after that.
 
If Russia shot them all down then it is just a training exercise, eh?…../s
 
Do you agree that Russia is winning in Ukraine?…but maybe slower than you and other want, eh?……or do you want our species extinction to come sooner?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 16 2026 4:21 utc | 174

If Russia shot them all down then it is just a training exercise, eh?…../s Do you agree that Russia is winning in Ukraine?…but maybe slower than you and other want, eh?……or do you want our species extinction to come sooner?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 16 2026 4:21 utc | 177
 
Did Russia shoot them all down?  No way to know.  Probably most of them.  That is still a lot of drones exploding on Russian territory.  And daily doses of this gets old fast, as the Israeli’s know for sure.
 
Is Russia still winning in Ukraine?  Yes.  With a but.  The US drones can make Russian advances permanently slow.  Which is probably ok.  The drones being sent into Russia are not killing Russians at the front line, and are not slowing down Russian breakthroughs that occur.
 
It is clear that the sheer number of drones fired makes it tough for Russia to not respond in some visible way.  It is also clear that this is not a “Putin” decision, it is a decision of the Russian high command.  I have no idea what decision Russia/China/Iran will make.  However, since someone has to make the final decision, I am glad it is the Russian High Command.  They have done a stellar job in threading the needles up to this point.  The US is losing badly.  Their biggest challenges are still to come.  The US is showing itself to be more desperate and deranged than ever before.

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 16 2026 4:45 utc | 175

Do you agree that Russia is winning in Ukraine?…but maybe slower than you and other want, eh?……or do you want our species extinction to come sooner?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 16 2026 4:21 utc | 177

 
It’s a catastrophic loss for Russia so far.
 
If WWII had been frozen pemanentlty where it was in September 1941 and then again in September 1943 would that have been a win for the USSR or a loss?
 
Well, the front line runs roughly the same right now. 
 
So we have Russia losing most of Ukraine.
 
Plus the total loss of deterrence, the destruction of all allies elsewhere around the world except for North Korea, the maritime blockade, etc. etc. 
 
And Dmitriev’s plan wants to return Russia internally back to the 1990s too.
 
How is that winning the war?

Posted by: GM | Mar 16 2026 4:46 utc | 176

Did Russia shoot them all down?  No way to know.  Probably most of them.  That is still a lot of drones exploding on Russian territory.  And daily doses of this gets old fast, as the Israeli’s know for sure.

 
There have been fewer reports of material damage than expected for that many drones flying this deep. The optimistic take is that everything was indeed shot down. However, most Russian deep-rear military sites are secluded away from the cities, deep in forests, so hits there would not necessarily be seen. So if the target switched from countervalue to counterforce, you would not know what the real damage is anyway.

 It is clear that the sheer number of drones fired makes it tough for Russia to not respond in some visible way.  It is also clear that this is not a “Putin” decision, it is a decision of the Russian high command.  
Posted by: Woke American | Mar 16 2026 4:45 utc | 178
 

Oh, it is in fact Putin’s decision. Most others are against him on this matter. You see that even Lavrov is barely containing himself at this point. Medvedev is sneak dissing Putin in every other social media post. The military you will never hear from, they keep a low profile. 
 
It is Putin, Peskov, Ushakov, Dmitriev, etc. who are pushing the eternal-friendship-with-the-dear-partners-who-bomb-our-cities line. And the oligarchs support it. Now what the oligarchs have in terms of mechanisms of influence to override the military and much of the civilian leadership too, one has to have inside info to know, and i don’t. 
 

Posted by: GM | Mar 16 2026 4:52 utc | 177

Don’t feed the troll with so much BS coming out of their keyboard. please and thank you…we have to scroll through enough spam as it is these days.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 16 2026 5:05 utc | 178

Is this the UWDude Thread? 

Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 16 2026 5:13 utc | 179

Seems like Ukraine has lots more drones up than Russia. My take is NATO is providing the drones, crews and targeting data.
The Russians are slowing to a crawl if they are indeed moving forward at all.

Posted by: Surferket | Mar 16 2026 5:28 utc | 180

Is this the UWDude Thread? 
Posted by: Perimetr | Mar 16 2026 5:13 utc | 182
 
Doesn’t seem so. What I see are a number of religious fanatics promoting Armageddon for the return of Messiah 

Posted by: 2+2 | Mar 16 2026 5:57 utc | 181

The Russians are slowing to a crawl if they are indeed moving forward at all.

Posted by: Surferket | Mar 16 2026 5:28 utc | 183

Life is long, Art(ifact) is short.
Making drones at factory do not need much time.
Making decent soldiers from birth need much time.
Better spare human life.

This is war of attrition.Faction’s patience is being tested.
I haven’t read much of it, but I’ve heard that Russian literature and the Russian character are characterised by an ability to endure long periods of suffering.
It is likely to be the West that gives in first.

Posted by: Nokaz | Mar 16 2026 6:00 utc | 182

Seems like Ukraine has lots more drones up than Russia. My take is NATO is providing the drones, crews and targeting data.The Russians are slowing to a crawl if they are indeed moving forward at all.
Posted by: Surferket | Mar 16 2026 5:28 utc | 183
 
According to Military Channel, the US counter offensives in southern Ukraine have all been stabilized, and Russian forces are making modest gains in the south.
 
The US has just started providing drones in such big numbers.  Maybe other European nations?  No way to know.  It will be a while before we even have the possibility of comparing the number of NATO drones vs the number of Russian drones.

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 16 2026 6:15 utc | 183

Posted by: GM | Mar 15 2026 19:56 utc | 97
—————
Lets’ see…Shut up and go funding your own blog to unwind your monologue?

Posted by: scc | Mar 16 2026 6:34 utc | 184

Seems like Ukraine has lots more drones up than Russia. My take is NATO is providing the drones, crews and targeting data.The Russians are slowing to a crawl if they are indeed moving forward at all.
Posted by: Surferket | Mar 16 2026 5:28 utc | 183

 
The most important RUAF advance now is toward Orekhov and the continuing dissection of Konstantinovka. They also took Grishyne and moving toward Mezhova west of Pokrovsk.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 16 2026 6:36 utc | 185

Seems like Ukraine has lots more drones up than Russia. My take is NATO is providing the drones, crews and targeting data.The Russians are slowing to a crawl if they are indeed moving forward at all.
Posted by: Surferket | Mar 16 2026 5:28 utc | 183

 
Yes, of course NATO is providing the drones and targeting. It has been the case for a long time. All of these are NATO strikes launched from Ukraine. It is no different from Iran being hit from the airspace of Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and by ground launched missiles from Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and UAE. 
 
Except for one “minor” detail — Iran recognizes what is happening, and is striking back at both the proxies and the real aggressors, while the Kremlin is strategically committed to maintaining the pretense that the yellow foul smelling liquid falling on their faces is pure clear rain. 
 

The US has just started providing drones in such big numbers.  Maybe other European nations?  No way to know.  It will be a while before we even have the possibility of comparing the number of NATO drones vs the number of Russian drones.
Posted by: Woke American | Mar 16 2026 6:15 utc | 186

 
The point has been made many times — the manufacturing complexity of a OWA UAV is comparable to that of a cheap car. And it’s not simply an abstract comparison — car factories in the West are in fact being converted into drone production facilities. 
 
So what is the relevant industrial potential here? Objectively and without emotions, all narratives about deindustrialization aside. 
 
Well, it is this:
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_vehicle_production
 
Russia producea 1M cars a year. It can produce more in principle — its peak was in 2012 at 2.2M. So much for Putin’s reindustrialization, BTW — how is it that in nearly 15 years car production fell by more than half? That number can be pushed more if there is will. But the same applies to the combined West. Which produces how much? A lot more:
 
It’s 10.5M (USA) + 8M (Japan) + 4M (South Korea) + 4M (Germany) + 2.5M (Spain) + 1.5M (Czechia) + 1.5M (Turkey) + 1.5M (France) + 1M (Canada) + 1M (Slovakia) + 1M (UK) + 1M (Italy) + 0.5M (Romania) + 0.5M (Poland) + another 1-2M spread across other countries. 
 
That’s about 40M cars a year. Remove Japan and SK if you want, it is still nearly 30M. 
 
So we have a 40:1 to most optimistically for Russia 15:1, ratio in industrial capacity.
 
Which, if even partially mobilized, would eventually translate in real dominance on the battlefield. And that is exactly what we are seeing.
 
Because nobody in the Kremlin dares strike back at NATO and cut the supplies off. As long as that is not done, Russia will be losing the war.
 
 

Posted by: GM | Mar 16 2026 6:41 utc | 186

Grishino North of Pokrovsk: Ukrainian Troops Mass Surrender Under Drone Surveillance
 

In recent days, six Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) servicemen laid down their weapons in the Grishino area. According to the prisoners, they had held their positions for several weeks; food and water supplies ran out almost immediately, and resupply was virtually absent.
 
Three were wounded, and their positions faced constant strikes from artillery and FPV drones. Attempting to withdraw, they risked detection by their own forces — firing on retreating soldiers is not uncommon. Ultimately, the group advanced, escorted by a Russian drone that guided them directly to Russian positions.
 
These are not isolated incidents. Earlier, voluntary surrenders by servicemen from the notorious 425th Separate Assault Regiment “Skala” were recorded in the area.
 
Fellow “Skala” prisoner Timur Kraev, forcibly mobilized by TRC (territorial recruitment center) staff and sent to the unit — where soldiers are “sent to slaughter,” in his words — noted that recruits included the lame, those with hernias, and epilepsy sufferers. Realizing the futility, Kraev and a comrade laid down their arms.
 
Russian assault trooper Pavel Yakovlev, involved in receiving surrenders, commented:
 

“We approach the dugout, shout ‘surrender.’ They come out immediately with hands up. They have no motivation left to fight. An eight-man group arrives — all surrender. They know they’re dead men walking.”
 

He highlighted the AFU personnel’s lack of will to resist and their awareness of abandonment by command.
 
Surrenders have become routine under drone observation. Prisoners signal their location by raising a white cloth on a stick; a Russian “Mavic”-type quadcopter then escorts them to forward positions. “Sometimes they just hang a white rag on a stick and emerge from the hole. Our ‘Mavic’ locks on and guides them,” Yakovlev explained. Military sources confirm this as an established practice here.
 
Prisoner Timur Kraev detailed Ukraine’s mobilization corruption: “For $10,000, you can buy an exemption — about a year, I think. From $5,000 to $10,000 at the enlistment office. When they grabbed me, I could have paid $6,000 there, but you’d get no paper — pay, walk out, and they’d hunt you again tomorrow. Civilians hide, run. No one wants to fight; we’ve had enough in four years.” On his first mission, Kraev was blown up on an ATV, sheltered overnight in a basement, then surrendered with comrades.
 
Grishino’s capture holds key operational value for Russian forces. Combined with prior seizure of Rodinskoye, it opens southern routes to Dobropolye and enables efficient use of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Dimitrov (Mirnograd) logistics. Advances in southern Belitskoye, near Dobropolye, add pressure. Understanding that losing these nodes could collapse the front, Ukraine committed 1st Corps National Guard reserves in a desperate attempt to hold Belitskoye and Grishino. The fall of Grishino and the ongoing surrenders underscore the failure of that effort.
 

https://southfront.press/grishino-north-of-pokrovsk-ukrainian-troops-mass-surrender-under-drone-surveillance/

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 16 2026 7:24 utc | 187

New Massive Russian Strike On Ukraine And Evening Drone Attack On Moscow

 

On the night of March 14, a week later, Russian forces launched another massive combined strike on the territory of Ukraine with 498 air attack assets: 68 missiles of various types and 430 strike drones. According to Ukrainian command data, the attack used two Zircon hypersonic anti-ship missiles, 13 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 49 Kalibr and Kh-101 sea- and air-launched cruise missiles, and four Kh-59/69 guided air missiles.
 
The main target of the Russian attack was the Kyiv region. The strikes hit key energy infrastructure facilities: the Trypilska TPP in the capital’s suburb and the 750 kV “Kyivska” substation in Nalyvaikivka, which connects Kyiv with the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant.
 

In Kyiv itself, emergency power outages were introduced — scheduled blackout rotations ceased to apply, and electricity supply was restricted manually. Power supply disruptions affected consumers in the Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Cherkasy, and Kirovohrad regions.
 
In addition to energy facilities, warehouses in Novi Petrivtsi, Kyiv region, and the territory of an airbase in the Vasylkiv area came under attack. In the Dnipropetrovsk region, in the city of Inhulets, a Geran drone struck a locomotive, and in the Sumy region, a similar strike hit a railway train near the village of Novoselytsia. In the Kharkiv region, a suburban train was attacked from the air. Explosions were also recorded in the Mykolaiv and Cherkasy regions.
 
In parallel, Ukrainian forces continued attacks on Russian regions and infrastructure in Crimea. On the night of March 14, Russian air defense forces shot down 87 fixed-wing drones over the territory of the Russian Federation, and another 317 by evening.
 
The main blow fell on southern Russia. In the Krasnodar region, the Port of Kavkaz and the Afipsky oil refinery were attacked. At the port, drone debris damaged a technical vessel, and a fire broke out at the berth complex, which was later extinguished. At the Afipsky refinery, technical units caught fire.
 

The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine officially announced damage to two Russian ships in the Kerch Strait. According to the agency, as a result of a drone attack, the railway ferry “Slavyanin” was put out of commission and the vessel “Avangard” was damaged.
 

By the evening of March 14, the attacks shifted towards Moscow. A massive drone raid alert was declared in the capital. According to reports, air defense forces shot down 66 drones heading towards the city.
 
This exchange of strikes underscores the unabating intensity of the conflict, where both sides inflict targeted damage on critical infrastructure — escalating mutual threats with no signs of de-escalation.

https://southfront.press/new-massive-russian-strike-on-ukraine-and-evening-drone-attack-on-moscow/

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 16 2026 7:30 utc | 188

Posted by: GM | Mar 16 2026 6:41 utc | 189

What an extrapolation. I am truly in awe. Now can you explain for us all as your next trick how the average airspeed velocity of an unladen European swallow Will result in Russia inevitably losing? Asking for a friend.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Mar 16 2026 7:37 utc | 189

I’d like to hear from GM, S, Constantine etc regarding how the different factions stack up in Russia, rather than interminable arguments over ‘Putin’.
 
Posted by: S.P. Korolev | Mar 15 2026 21:19 utc | 128

I have never criticized Putin on this or any other blog. Not once. Also I have never advocated for strikes on NATO. So please don’t group me with GM (or shadowbanned).
 
I have offered criticism of the state of the Russian military by translating the posts of officers and supply volunteers in-the-know. I think it can be significantly improved by retiring clueless careerist generals and promoting talented battle-tested officers in their place. Note I’m not saying that all Russian generals are clueless and/or careerist, only that some are. Also note that some of them have since been removed and even put into jail, which is why I stopped offering criticism on that topic, but I think more needs to be done.

Posted by: S | Mar 16 2026 7:39 utc | 190

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 16 2026 4:21 utc | 177

… Do you agree that Russia is winning in Ukraine?…but maybe slower than you and other want, eh?……or do you want our species extinction to come sooner?

I’m not convinced that “winning in Ukraine” is a proper metric to measure Russia or the West’s success in this conflict.
 
As for your second point, which is a common theme on this forum, it simply points to the recent asymmetry in deterrence between the two belligerents. The West is free to launch numerous attacks deep into Russia, but Russia cannot retaliate.
 
I don’t see these developments as sign of US desperation but more as capitalizing on a shift in the power balance.

Posted by: robin | Mar 16 2026 7:43 utc | 191

Ukraine’s urgent fight on the financial frontline
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20jyngz7ygo
 

inflation remains a problem despite falling from a wartime peak of 26.6% to the current 7.4%

******

In December 2024, taxes in Ukraine were increased for the first time since the war began, including on personal incomes, small businesses and financial institutions.
 
That’s part of the reason why domestic sources are expected to bring $67.5bn into government coffers this year, a 15% increase from a year earlier.
 
However, the government’s budget for 2026 includes spending plans worth about $112bn, with about 60% of that going towards the army. That leaves a shortfall of around $45bn.

*******

“We believe that Ukraine, by continuing the war and increasing taxes, is moving toward default and economic collapse”, says the think tank the Ukrainian Institute of the Future in a recent assessment of the economy.

*******

The war is also straining Russia’s much larger economy, however its military effort is worth 5.1% of GDP. That compares to 27% of Ukraine’s GDP going on its military.

********

The biggest challenge is that we haven’t sufficient electricity”

********

, a shortage of workers with the right skills is an ongoing challenge that shows no signs of abating given that millions of people have either joined the army or left the country.

*********

The UN’s International Labour Organisation has suggested there will be a shortage of 8.7 million workers when it comes to reconstruction, and some business leaders have suggested the answer is to import workers from abroad.

********
 

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 16 2026 8:33 utc | 192

Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on the event of the Twelfth Anniversary of Russian Annexation of Crimea, condemns Russia, saying that it states with Ukraine and saying it continues to ‘monitor the situation of the Crimean Tatar Turks’

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 16 2026 8:36 utc | 193

Either you’re referring to something to which I am not privy, or you’ve finally reached Peak Finnegan’s Wake. 
Posted by: malenkov | Mar 16 2026 0:02 utc | 152
 
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Li’l dog!

Posted by: General Factotum | Mar 16 2026 9:35 utc | 194

B – a map showing territory gained by Russia over the past year would be helpful…? 

Posted by: Ger | Mar 16 2026 11:08 utc | 195

I think Putin has fallen into the Anchorage trap. His decision to slow down Russia’s advance in Ukraine and his constant pleas for further negotiations are giving the West enough time to rearm. It’s clear that a stalemate has already set in. Next year, there will be a showdown, and Russia will be overwhelmed by massive swarms of autonomous, AI-controlled drones.

Posted by: guest from franconia | Mar 16 2026 11:15 utc | 196

From https://t.me/Slavyangrad/158721
🇺🇦 The Language Ombudswoman of Ukraine, Ivanovskaya:
“The Russian language is equal to arrogance, such arrogance. Neurolinguists should study the very structure, the specifics of this language. Because, have you noticed, for example, such a pattern that we really easily assimilate Russian. (Russian-speaking children – Rare.) They move to Lvov, and already the children of Lvov start speaking Russian, not the other way around”“Usually, when these Russian-speaking people appear in our children’s environment, they position themselves with arrogance and the language of power. And when there is a language of power, everyone else submits. The Russian language has a vertical structure. The Ukrainian language has a horizontal structure”
🤡🤡🤡
@Slavyangrad (http://t.me/Slavyangrad)

Posted by: aquadraht | Mar 16 2026 11:28 utc | 197

@ guest from franconia | Mar 16 2026 11:15 utc | 199
Considering the range of the missiles and drones launched and the depth of targets in Russia, how would an increase in pace of Russian advance mitigate the risk of the showdown you fear?

Posted by: robin | Mar 16 2026 11:30 utc | 198

General Moron (GM) now haunting the bar, sigh. I blocked him in Simplicius’ substack. Is there a way to shield off his ravings and spam here, too?

Posted by: aquadraht | Mar 16 2026 11:31 utc | 199

Judging by the smell, GM/SB, Minimo and the switched device are roommates downstairs. When in trouble, they create some other names and vomit all over the place.
 
I think they get sexually aroused by any kind of response so it would be best if everyone just ignored them, although I understand how difficult that is.
 
The good thing is it’s easy to detect (and skip) GM/SB posts because of the ubiquitous word salad with some greasy arrogance on top.
 

Posted by: Avtonom | Mar 16 2026 11:36 utc | 200