Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 6, 2026
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-051

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

Yesterday’s update from Marat Khairullin: https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/brief-frontline-report-march-5th

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 11:23 utc | 1

Fresh Marat here
 
https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/brief-frontline-report-march-5th
 
small reminder that yesterday was a calm near 1.200 AFU casualties

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 6 2026 11:24 utc | 2

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 11:23 utc | 1
sorry, it crossed
 
No harm meant , should we take the occasion to discuss something that either upsets my calculations or means Putin pulled a macron and will no longer discuss real numbers. I’m talking about the army size decree (was waiting for official news but only found a link for FB)

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 6 2026 11:28 utc | 3

Just checking the old thread and 
 
@unimperator, maybe worth bringing your last post (simple os crossed with marat’s)
 
@dude do you have a link for that threat ?

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 6 2026 11:34 utc | 4

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/zelenskyy-slams-orb-n-for-blocking-90-billion-1772720824.html
 
“We hope that one person in the European Union won’t block 90 billion and that Ukrainian soldiers will have weapons. Otherwise, we’ll give this person’s address to our Armed Forces, our guys, so they can call him and communicate with him in their own language,”
 
 

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 6 2026 11:46 utc | 5

Fico: Zelensky crossed red lines with threats against Orban
 
“I officially ask all high representatives of the European Union – the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Council António Costa, and the EU Foreign Minister Kaja Kallas – to distance themselves from these outrageous blackmailing statements by Zelensky,” – he urged.
 
Zelensky considers EU representatives his servants who should do everything he expects, added Fico.
 
https://odysee.com/@Velyaminov:a/Zelensky-crossed-red-lines-with-threats-against-Orban:0

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 6 2026 11:47 utc | 6

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 6 2026 11:46 utc | 5
thanks! So now we’re good with having z threatening an(other) attack on nato countries? 
 
First nordstream, now threatening to target a leader in his country. Both Ukraine and us have been the only cases where article 5 should be discussed… against them.
 
guess we currently have nothing on Alice’s adventures, there is only absurd down this rabbit hole.
 
wondering what the magic trio, fond os lying, porque no te kalas? And costa will say… Ruti fruit  will probably say that he’ll help z…
 
 

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 6 2026 11:56 utc | 7

There is no more bandera proxy natzio folly news. 
 
That is the main reason for all the other dead cats on table and squizzle pointing events. 
 
Tbe Black Sean is conjured and the modern day AIG led GFC can proceed! 
 
It will all be blamed on curseyoopoooootin / Xi, Iranians and Venezuelans, Palestinians and Hezbullah and Ansar Allah; and all the migrants fleeing from the Waster Wars drawn to the supposed Garden of the Collective Waste. 
 
Ukropia will fall to the Dniper and Shelensky’s home town will fall this spring.  

Posted by: DunGroanin | Mar 6 2026 11:56 utc | 8

Ukraine and World Affairs: Weekly Update, 6th March 2026: May be Useful to Some: Ukraine and World Affairs: Weekly Update Iran Special

Posted by: ffairs | Mar 6 2026 12:22 utc | 9

Russia oil sales:
 
WASHINGTON (Sputnik) – The United States has temporarily allowed India to purchase oil from Russia stored on tankers at sea, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed.”To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil. This deliberately short-term measure will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government as it only authorizes transactions involving oil already stranded at sea,” Bessent wrote on X.He said India is an essential partner of the United States, and added that the US anticipates New Delhi to “ramp up purchases of US oil.”
https://sputnikglobe.com/20260306/bessent-confirms-30-day-waiver-for-india-to-buy-russian-oil-1123773917.html
 
If the Indians have any sense (a debatable proposition) then they will avoid putting themselves into the same trap as the EU, who are now even more completely dependent on US whims than they were a few years ago. Having the US as their main oil supplier is to relinquish all freedom of political and economic choice. But so good of Trump to give them 30 days to choose – what a splendid guy!

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Mar 6 2026 12:34 utc | 10

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 6 2026 11:47 utc | 6
 
But Orban has got his own back:
MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Hungary demands explanations from Ukraine in connection with currency transportation while conducting its own investigation, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Friday.Earlier in the day, Hungary’s national tax and customs office said it had detained seven Ukrainian citizens on suspicion of money laundering, including a former general of the Ukrainian special services responsible for transporting $40 million, 35 million euros and nine kilograms of gold from Austria to Ukraine.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20260306/hungary-demands-explanation-from-ukraine-in-connection-with-currency-transportation-1123776187.html

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Mar 6 2026 12:40 utc | 11

Relations between Ukraine and Hungary deteriorate further:

Hungary actually took Sberbank employees hostage and stole money-Sibiga

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andriy Sibiga said that Hungary actually took 7 employees of Oschadbank hostage and stole the money they were transporting.
 

He wrote about this on Facebook, reports RegioNews .
 
According to Sibiga, the seven Ukrainians were driving two bank cars that were transiting between Austria and Ukraine and were transporting cash as part of regular service between state-owned banks.
 

“If this is the same “force” that Mr. Orban previously stated, then this is the power of a criminal group. This is state terrorism and racketeering, ” Sibiga said.
 

The Minister added that Ukraine has already sent an official note demanding the immediate release of citizens and will appeal to the European Union to assess Hungary’s illegal actions.
 
The press service of Oschadbank reported that two collection vehicles were unreasonably detained while transporting foreign currency and banking metals between Raiffeisen Bank Austria and Oschadbank Ukraine.
 

“The amount of valuables that were in the cars amounted to 40 million US dollars, 35 million euros and 9 kg of gold,” the bank said.
 

Now the cars are located in the center of Budapest near one of the security forces of Hungary. The location of Sberbank employees is still unknown.
 

“Oschadbank demands the immediate dismissal of its employees and the return of property,” the press service said.
 

The bank’s management is in constant contact with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and law enforcement agencies of Ukraine to coordinate further actions.
 
Recall that in November 2025, President Vladimir Zelensky said that Hungarian Prime Minister Orban actually supports Russian dictator Putin , since he blocks Ukraine’s entry into the EU.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/ukraine/1772777153-ugorshchina-faktichno-vzyala-v-zaruchniki-pratsivnikiv-oshchadbanku-ta-vikrala-groshi-sibiga (via translation add-on.)
 
I wonder if it will get as far as cross-border shelling, exchanges of fire? Opening a second front always works out so well…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 12:44 utc | 12

Any updates on Surovikin?

Posted by: Melaleuca | Mar 6 2026 12:48 utc | 13

Russia oil sales:
 
WASHINGTON (Sputnik) – The United States has temporarily allowed India to purchase oil from Russia stored on tankers at sea, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed.”To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil. This deliberately short-term measure will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government as it only authorizes transactions involving oil already stranded at sea,” Bessent wrote on X.He said India is an essential partner of the United States, and added that the US anticipates New Delhi to “ramp up purchases of US oil.”
https://sputnikglobe.com/20260306/bessent-confirms-30-day-waiver-for-india-to-buy-russian-oil-1123773917.html
 
If the Indians have any sense (a debatable proposition) then they will avoid putting themselves into the same trap as the EU, who are now even more completely dependent on US whims than they were a few years ago. Having the US as their main oil supplier is to relinquish all freedom of political and economic choice. But so good of Trump to give them 30 days to choose – what a splendid guy!
 
Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Mar 6 2026 12:34 utc | 10
—————
 
Lol, you can’t polish a turd but you can roll it in golden glitter eh?
 
I wonder if Trumpenstein will answer questions about this, by babbling in a senile manner about his f*cking precious ballroom floor.
 
Whilst Sloppy Pete tries ripping his shirt off Hulk Hogan style and Lil Mark tries remembering the lies he told yesterday so he can deny them.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Mar 6 2026 12:50 utc | 14

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Mar 6 2026 12:34 utc | 10
 
Part of the world praise the great world emperor for the gracious gift it is to allow India to buy their oil from Russia for a while.
 
The other part of the world is (hopefully) building BRICS.

Posted by: Avtonom | Mar 6 2026 12:53 utc | 15

TASS report covering the Russian Defence Ministry weekly summary: https://tass.com/politics/2097677

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 13:24 utc | 16

First nordstream, now threatening to target a leader in his country.  
Posted by: Newbie | Mar 6 2026 11:56 utc | 7
 
There’s more than those two:  “All of Putin’s friends are either already in heaven or in hell — probably in hell — or in prison. There are still some left: China, North Korea, and some others. But Putin’s authority is falling anyway,” the Estonian minister said, March 5. Sounds like a public threat to me for little Xi. 
Assassinations work very well for Natostan mostly because they’re combined with the money printer and their targets don’t have a system, their policy depends on a single person or small group. Remove that guy, give $5 to the next and the whole country is changed like Venezuela. It’s how EU works too. Bribe a few in each country and they vote anything Ursula says but no one elected her. Vicky said Maidan cost was only $5bn. That’s so cheap some may try it out of boredom. Maybe China is different, we’ll  see when they will receive an invitation to visit Anchorage

Posted by: rk | Mar 6 2026 13:30 utc | 17

I wonder if it will get as far as cross-border shelling, exchanges of fire? Opening a second front always works out so well…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 12:44 utc | 12
Maybe Ukraine will finally get what it wanted for the last 4 years – western soldiers in Ukraine. But something tells me that they will not be happy if those soldiers shoot them.

Posted by: Martina | Mar 6 2026 13:34 utc | 18

Posted by: Jan Sobieski | Mar 5 2026 8:09 utc | 184
 
Jan Sobieski – on the question of whether the UK has more influence on US and Western policy than it seems to us in the public, all I can say is that it doesn’t look like it to this outsider.   Hudson details the loss of UK power to the US in the 50’s.  That was no more than Churchill noted in the ’40’s:  in his writings he details his discomfort towards the end of WWII when the Big Three was becoming more and more obviously the Big Two.
 
And “Big Three” was pushing it rather well before that.  As argued before on “b’s” site, the British Empire was something of a string and sealing wax affair and nothing like as grand and powerful as popular myth has it.  Britain’s power in the nineteenth century  derived more from our head start in industrial production.
 
As for the closing days of that Empire, and bringing this comment up to modern times,  there’s a superb study of the loss of British power in the ME  by James Barr :- 
 
“Lords of the Desert: Britain’s Struggle with America to Dominate the Middle East”
 
Amazon has reviews of it, as of Barr’s preceding book:-
 
“A Line in the Sand: Britain, France and the struggle that shaped the Middle East”
 
The two need to be read together but briefly, very briefly, we and the French were cutting each others throats for power and influence in the ME before WWII.  During and after that time the US elbowed the old colonial powers out of the way.  Britain gradually being pushed back to its original foothold in the ME – the Gulf States – where we’re hung on more or less ever since. 
 
If Iran does manage to push the Western powers out of the ME then presumably we’ll be out of the Gulf as well,  together with the US and the other old colonial powers.   We still have 130,000 UK citizens over there, many trying to get out at the moment, a few of those not tourists or businessmen but shady characters of various sorts working for HMG in a variety of different capacities.
 
It’s those shady characters, thousands upon thousands of them not only in the Gulf but all over the place including Ukraine, whose activities give rise to the impression that we Brits are running the show.  Far as I can tell, not.  We like to think we’re working hand in hand with the US but in reality, we’re maid of all work for outfits like the CIA, kept on for the scrubbier work that they’re too grand to do.
 
Very scrubby work, some of it.  Not telling tales out of school but I know for a fact that many of our regular forces are as contemptuous of what those characters get up to as are you and I.    Sooner we and the other Europoodles give over that sort of work the better.
 
That’s all I can offer on that subject.  But shady characters doing scrubby work all over the place, though their activities certainly contribute greatly to the death and suffering we in the West are responsible for,  don’t to my mind add up to Britain running the show behind the scenes.

Posted by: English Outsider | Mar 6 2026 13:36 utc | 19

I bet the Europeans really want Nord Stream 2 back now
 
Too bad the gas pipeline sits under Ukranian house and Russia
 
Algeria can still provide them with Gas but Algeria will probably consider rising price 
 
Ukraine yeah only has EU backing now as US is zooming in West Asia.
 
The Ukrainian army is in bad shape but it won’t crack until another big mass casualties event as big as Bakmutt. 
 
Armed combatants are too spread out on both sides. They both need to concentrate in an area for a big battle to break eachother instead of doing skirmishes.

Posted by: KillerDoll | Mar 6 2026 13:51 utc | 20

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Mar 6 2026 12:34 utc | 10
 
######
 
Trump is doing his thing, trying to create leverage where none exists. He’s allowing the sale of Russian pirated oil to India and making it sound like economic progress.
 
The Pedophile Emperor’s benevolence.
 
Shifting his wallet from the right side of his jacket to the left, creating some headlines,and declaring it magnanimity.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 6 2026 14:05 utc | 21

There’s more than those two: “All of Putin’s friends are either already in heaven or in hell — probably in hell — or in prison. There are still some left: China, North Korea, and some others. But Putin’s authority is falling anyway,” the Estonian minister said, March 5. Sounds like a public threat to me for little Xi. 
Assassinations work very well for Natostan mostly because they’re combined with the money printer and their targets don’t have a system, their policy depends on a single person or small group. Remove that guy, give $5 to the next and the whole country is changed like Venezuela. It’s how EU works too. Bribe a few in each country and they vote anything Ursula says but no one elected her. Vicky said Maidan cost was only $5bn. That’s so cheap some may try it out of boredom. Maybe China is different, we’ll see when they will receive an invitation to visit Anchorage
 
Posted by: rk | Mar 6 2026 13:30 utc | 17
 
————
Cool story brah.
 
————-
 
Maybe Ukraine will finally get what it wanted for the last 4 years – western soldiers in Ukraine. But something tells me that they will not be happy if those soldiers shoot them.
Posted by: Martina | Mar 6 2026 13:34 utc | 18
—————
 
It’d be a sure sign of the end.
 
Ukraine doesn’t have troops to spare to confront even one Hungarian division now. Particularly given the territory Hungary would enter  has a supportive population.
 

Posted by: Urban Fox | Mar 6 2026 14:26 utc | 22

https://x.com/PeteLiquid/status/2029572338522493065?s=20
 
Excellent short article here about the “lessons” Russia should learn from the attack on Iran. Whether Putin, who is a judeophilic Europhile Yeltsin-lite, is capable of learning them is another question altogether. 

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | Mar 6 2026 15:23 utc | 23

Jams O’Donnell no 10:
 
Modi is totally compromised. He’s in the Epstein Files (part of his activities were disclosed, just enough to make him fall in line). His corporate owner Adani has legal problems in America. Modi is a total slave of Adani and will do anything for his owner, including making India an American colony, to make those problems go away. 

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | Mar 6 2026 15:26 utc | 24

Modi is a total slave of Adani
 
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | Mar 6 2026 15:26 utc | 25
 

 
Adani will not survive the repercussions arising from the wrath of Iran.
 

Posted by: too scents | Mar 6 2026 15:35 utc | 25

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 12:44 utc | 12
 
IIRC (I don’t very often cross borders with stacks of banknotes and heaps of precious metals) I think it’s illegal not to declare everything and secure a permit at the border. So the Ukrainian authorities don’t have a very good case. This is hilarious.

Posted by: Avtonom | Mar 6 2026 16:25 utc | 26

Re: Surovikin, from RotFuchs March 2026
“General Surovikin – new field commander – for the changing Russian Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine”
General S. Surovikin, who had successfully fulfilled a state mission for his homeland in Africa, returned to Russia at the end of the eight-day pause in the Ukraine conflict during a difficult phase.
His stay in Africa was not a punitive transfer because of his special connections to the Wagner group, but rather the assignment to avert Russia’s possible isolation by making several African states accessible again to the Russian Federation.
He succeeded in opening up important raw materials such as silver, gold and uranium for his country and in removing them from the influence of the USA and France.
As Russian media reported, President Putin received him during the night and, after a detailed and confidential conversation, appointed him field commander of all Russian troops in the Ukraine conflict, and thus the main military authority, even ahead of the bureaucratized General Staff.
His leadership, military and military-technical abilities are well known both to Russian military leaders and to Western militaries, who remember him from Syria as a successful hardliner.
The majority of the Russian population, and especially the patriotic soldiers who trust him, see him as a fighter who together with them will achieve victory over Ukraine and over NATO, and who will also combat corruption and negligence in the state and in the army.
He currently possesses the highest approval rating among Russia’s politicians and military leaders.
According to Surovikin’s plan, fundamental changes in Russian warfare are to take place.
The character of the Russian Federation’s troops operating in Ukraine is to be transformed from the defensive line created by Surovikin in 2022 into a dynamic and effective offensive line.
This means lifting all restrictions that led to serious impairment of military successes, especially in the initial phase of the SMO.
It cannot be, Surovikin explains, that after four years of the SMO a large part of the bridges over the Dnieper, which allow the Ukrainian armed forces to carry out logistics and supply across them, still exist.
It will not remain as before with the destruction of bridges, dams, reservoirs, and energy and transport centers.
The aim now is to destroy the enemy everywhere he is located.
This means that the character of the previous SMO will henceforth be subject to the rules of war.
Putin has given Surovikin a carte blanche (free hand) for this.Thus he is placed on the same level as Zhukov, who received such authority from Stalin.
This means limitations stemming from political, diplomatic and humanitarian considerations will be reduced.
In military terms this means that Surovikin can independently employ all conventional weapons currently available to the Russian Federation, especially guided glide bombs of the FAB type, hypersonic missiles and gliders, additional missile weapons, drones and electronic warfare systems—except nuclear weapons.
To cut Ukrainian troops off from their supplies and thus make military operations impossible, Ukraine’s logistical network is to be destroyed in the shortest possible time.
Russian assault troops are to be deployed only after FAB bombs, hypersonic and ballistic missiles, thermobaric systems and drones have prepared and secured the battlefield.
This would result in Russian losses being far lower than Ukrainian ones, since Ukraine does not possess such weapon systems in sufficient quantity.
Every attack or provocation against Russia’s state borders or surrounding seas by Ukrainian or NATO naval forces will be answered with retaliatory measures.
It also concerns ensuring protection of the rear regions of Russia, including reviving positive experiences from the Second World War.
Finally, it also concerns striking decision-making centers of the suppliers and commanders responsible for deploying offensive weapons and personnel.
According to Surovikin, the new conduct of war by the Russian armed forces is also a signal to the USA, NATO and the EU.

Posted by: V | Mar 6 2026 16:36 utc | 27

Poor Gehlenskyi … the corrupted hellhole he’s being elected in was never able to pay 800 handmade patriots … the charity ladies and gentlemen for a poor lonesome kokhol , in a long long way from peace ;( 
That kike is everyone’s useful idiot … best schadenfreude artist of the millennium.
On the front it’s rasputitza ; images of soldiers covered in mud are there again … spring will come soon. Im Osten nichts Neues.

Posted by: Savonarole | Mar 6 2026 16:40 utc | 28

Speaking of casualties , little over 1.200 AFU again (latest 1.245)
 
Something that might fit in the iran thread (but also here because quid pro quo, karma is a bitch and spirit of anchorage is a two way street)
 
“U.S. officials say Russia is giving Iran intelligence on the locations of American warships and aircraft in the Middle East, helping Tehran target U.S. forces – The Washington Post China does not appear to be providing similar assistance. Russia reportedly is giving the Iranians positions of ships, aircraft, radar systems. Officials say Russia is indirectly involved in the conflict.”
 
 

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 6 2026 17:00 utc | 29

Posted by: V | Mar 6 2026 16:36 utc | 28
 
The new general and overall new Russian battle strategy has been in place for several days.  Apparently they are still putting together their new battle tactics and detailed plans.  Also they would need to reposition their army.  Maybe 3 more days?  Might be longer to move their units to their new positions.
 
 
Plan first, act later.  But not too much later???  Apparently the Russians are stockpiling their missiles and drones – meaning they are no longer doing Shock and Awe attacks on Ukraine.  This is about the only sign we have the Russia REALLY IS making preparations for a large scale attack.  Military Channel mentions the “big Russian offensive by the end of March”.  Which is more like 3 weeks away.  Like anything like this, we won’t know for sure until after its started.

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 6 2026 17:04 utc | 30

V @28:
 
Surovikin unchained! That is cause for some celebration!
 
Time to revisit this oldie but goodie: THE SOUND OF SILENCE
 

Posted by: William Gruff | Mar 6 2026 17:22 utc | 31

Posted by: V | Mar 6 2026 16:36 utc | 28
 
Interesting info – something to look forwards to. Thanks.

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Mar 6 2026 17:24 utc | 32

🚨BREAKING NEWS
 

According to some reports, Russia is preparing to deploy Oreshnik missiles to the Finnish border.🇷🇺🚀🔥

 
https://x.com/aleksbrz11/status/2029967704828920294
 
I keep bringing up Finland for over a year. Finland would be an unresolved issue if Ukraine capitulated tomorrow. The war is with NATO. All of NATO.
 
All talk of negotiations were BS and remain impossible without the total collapse of America and/or Europe.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 6 2026 17:53 utc | 33

Dr. Vladimir Brovkin and ‘Rich does politics’. Dr. Brovkin’s analysis are always very well thought out.
 

Putin’s TOTAL VICTORY: Why Ukraine is FINISHED

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCj1mubL_L0

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 6 2026 18:51 utc | 34

“Apparently the Russians are stockpiling their missiles and drones – meaning they are no longer doing Shock and Awe attacks on Ukraine. ”  Presumably, unless Ukranian attacks on Russia are impacting weapons production. 

Posted by: schmoe | Mar 6 2026 19:05 utc | 35

The dear partners are still dear:
 
https://t.me/rezervsvo/156096
 

Zelenskyy was in Druzhkovka today, 15 kilometers from the front line. He was also in Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.He moved freely, apparently having received clear security guarantees, which is unfortunate.

Posted by: GM | Mar 6 2026 19:15 utc | 36

Posted by: GM | Mar 6 2026 19:15 utc | 37
 
Zelensky lives inside a green screen.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 6 2026 19:16 utc | 37

“Apparently the Russians are stockpiling their missiles and drones – meaning they are no longer doing Shock and Awe attacks on Ukraine. ”  Presumably, unless Ukranian attacks on Russia are impacting weapons production. 
Posted by: schmoe | Mar 6 2026 19:05 utc | 36

 
Noting much in the MIC has been hit inside Russia still. The Votkinks strike may have affected Iskander production, but the Geran production facilities have not been touched. 
 
The only explanation is a political decision to scaled down attacks.
 
Which, a week into the aggression on Iran, is well beyond scandalous and into outright high treason terrtitory

Posted by: GM | Mar 6 2026 19:17 utc | 38

https://t.me/i_strelkov_2023/2566
 

Russia won’t be able to take advantage of rising oil and gas prices as a state, although some of our oligarchs , who are of so-called Russian origin but don’t live in Russia, will, of course.
As far as I know, we have long-term contracts with China at fixed prices. And all remaining gas and oil exports will be effectively completely blocked for us in the near future due to the actions of the so-called “coalition of the willing” and so-called Ukraine. As you probably know, just yesterday, as far as I understand, our gas tanker in the Mediterranean was destroyed by a Ukrainian naval drone.
Call this terrorism or piracy as you like, but it will continue, and at an increasing rate. And after some time, our oil and gas supplies by sea will be completely cut off. Therefore, other exporting countries outside the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, not us, will benefit the most from rising oil and gas prices.
For us, this will most likely be reflected in higher prices for gasoline and other fuels within the country for our own citizens. Why am I so confident in this? Because I predict the enemy blockade will tighten in the near future, and it will tighten significantly, if not by orders of magnitude. Therefore, under the blockade, we simply won’t be able to take advantage of this.

Posted by: GM | Mar 6 2026 19:18 utc | 39

https://t.me/i_strelkov_2023/2562
 

Igor Strelkov on the Russian elite
(excerpt from a letter to a comrade)
 
Regarding the “illogicality” in the behavior of our “elites” and the reasons for this “lack of logic.” Well, I’ve asked myself this question many (many!) times until I came to a rather banal answer, which easily explains all the past idiotic actions of representatives of the “elite” and allows me to predict their future actions and deeds with a fair degree of accuracy (though not without errors, of course).
 
And the answer is this: THEY (in the vast majority, including almost 100% of the “very best” and even the “very best”) ARE SIMPLY STUPID, POORLY EDUCATED (or completely uneducated), lacking any talents (except for their extraordinary vanity and greed), and completely UNBEATENED BY LIFE (i.e., inexperienced in the “struggle for survival”).
 
They didn’t attain power through a fierce inter- and intra-species struggle (like Lenin and Trotsky, and then Stalin), but rather “on a silver platter”—”a random gift to random people.”
 
This gift wasn’t made for any merits or talents, but based on the principle: someone needs to rule “this” country and maintain a status quo that meets our interests? So they were elected: Boris Abramovich and Sobchak were “led in by the hand”—all that was left was to “extend their palms”—and “it all fell into their laps.”
 
Look at their collective biographies: office clerks, for the most part. It doesn’t matter that their “offices” belonged to “high-powered” departments (usually one of them). It was believed that, by and large, they hired people who were intelligent to begin with, but “outward polish” and a genuine, agile mind are two very different things. I’ve met many such “old Chekists.” Some of them truly impressed (and sometimes still do) with the depth and diversity of their intellect. But far-fetchedly not all!
 
And almost all of them (almost without exception) bear the hallmark of “office life”—under Andropov (I think deliberately), any initiative became a career obstacle. And— finding themselves in unfamiliar situations (i.e., when they’re away from the comfort of their office with a ton of phones that “can solve all their problems”), the overwhelming majority of them “fall into a stupor,” losing even the intelligence with which nature endowed them .
 
So we are governed by far from the best representatives of this “Andropov office Chekism,” who, having acquired almost absolute power, managed to “squeeze the oligarchs out of it” (our “oligarchs,” after all, also got their exorbitant property and income “for free,” for the most part), but then began to “clone” around themselves increasingly pale copies of themselves, “trampling” (and even worse) everything that dared “to have its own opinion,” and then simply “not to show unbridled admiration for the leaders for any reason.”
 
Then (having mistaken a fortunate economic situation for a reward for their own genius and achievements) they became “bronzed” to the point of complete immobility—their heads grew so “crowns” that to behave in any way other than “singing incessant hosannas” (with or without reason) became not only indecent for their entourage and “intellectual servants” but—worse yet—disloyal.
 
Especially since by the end of the 2000s, each “humble member of the cooperative” had amassed their own vast “business empire,” and owned property in a small European state (also for each).
 
All of this had to be managed and “increased,” which (over time) completely excluded the “celestials” from the opportunity to independently understand the state issues assigned to them, and the performance of their duties was reduced to fiction: all the work began to be done (“as easy and convenient as possible,” or better yet, not at all) by “pale clones of the 2nd, 3rd, 4th (etc.) level,” also most interested in “achieving the national idea – well-being” and very poorly versed in the issues they were entrusted to deal with.
 
Thus, the notorious “Planet of Pink Ponies” was formed, “cocooned,” and “blocked all social elevators ,” where everything happens by itself.

 
Compare and contrast with Iran. Iran entered the 1990s following the revolution and the the Iran-Iraq war.
 
Russia entered the 1990s following the greatest act of treason in the history of mankind and in a completely degenerate state. Which it has still not recovered from. 

Posted by: GM | Mar 6 2026 19:22 utc | 40

https://t.me/roy_tv_mk/19138
 

The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ “Ptashka” drone, fiber optic, 50 km range. Already in service. Ukraine’s demilitarization was in its fifth year…

Posted by: GM | Mar 6 2026 19:26 utc | 41

https://t.me/roy_tv_mk/19071
 

The enemy: Russia has significantly increased the number of drone strikes against Ukrainian trains since early spring . This is according to Ukrzaliznytsia.
 
According to the company, an average of six attacks per day are currently being recorded on rail infrastructure.
 
Since the beginning of March , 41 objects have been damaged, including 17 units of rolling stock.
 
I’d like to believe this (the paralysis of the enemy’s rail transport wouldn’t hurt us), but our leadership hasn’t completed a single task in the war. They threatened to disrupt the TCC, but abandoned everything at the very beginning. They failed to suppress the enemy’s air defenses. They promised to cut off power to Ukraine’s military-industrial complex, but they failed to achieve this.
 
I fear that the current battle against the enemy’s rail service will also be unfinished. (Although the actions of Anglo-American fighters hunting German steam locomotives paralyzed the work of the Reich’s “Eisenbahnen” by the end of 1944.)
 
But in the Russian Federation, it’s a kind of “General Promise-Nedodelkin” vale of fate (similar to “General Frost”). Do I need to explain why this is dangerous?

Posted by: GM | Mar 6 2026 19:36 utc | 42

Beats me why @ GM doesn’t form his/her/its own political party in Russia, and stand as a candidate in the next presidential elections.
 
Bet he/she/it doesn’t though…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 19:40 utc | 43

Dr. Brovkin says Russia might start bombing the outsourced Ukrainian weapon factories and EU organic weapon factories in EU countries and UK.
 
But he says most likely they won’t, alternately they bomb mostly connections, rail lines, bridges and tunnels to Romania and Poland are destroyed, Odessa port is de-facto out of commission and Ukraine’s army is exhausted.
 
Dr. Brovkin says the west gave Ukraine 80 fighter jets, 1000 tanks (of which 800 Soviet era), 100 Abrams tanks, dozen Leopard 2 tanks, handful of British Challengers, million and a half drones.
 
Russia will take Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. After that Zaporozhye. Cross Dnieper. Then Kherson. Nikolaev. Odessa. Then there’s not much of Ukraine left (economically speaking).

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 6 2026 19:41 utc | 44

By the way, there is a serious chance that the EU will run out of fuel within a month, perhaps even weeks. 
 
If that happens the logistics to Ukraine will get crippled, especially in conjunction with destroyed railway lines and bridges and locomotives.
 
Gas prices are already going up significantly, shortages aren’t out of the question.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 6 2026 19:45 utc | 45

If that happens the logistics to Ukraine will get crippled, especially in conjunction with destroyed railway lines and bridges and locomotives. 
 
Posted by: unimperator | Mar 6 2026 19:45 utc | 46

 
Which is when Putin will end the war because god forbid something bad happens to the dear partners.
 
As we saw today in the Donbass
 
Video:
 
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/110549
 
 
Also:
 
 
https://x.com/vick55top/status/2029947051262251356
 

It does not seem that Russia intends to use the US distraction from Ukraine to the war in Iran to finally achieve its goals in Ukraine. What is Putin waiting for? Maybe the same thing that Iran was waiting for until recently? If Russia wants to win in Ukraine, it must do it now.

 
 

Posted by: GM | Mar 6 2026 19:55 utc | 46

 schmoe and GM allude to another scenario.
 
Russia has been weakened.  But the mighty Iranians (meant to be non-ironical, I am in AWE of what Iran has accomplished) are in the process of eliminating US AA defenses, are pushing away the US navy, are taking out US surveillance sites throughout West Asia, and have absorbed 2 HUGE waves of US missiles.  Iran has weakened US military assets so much that EVEN RUSSIA can dare to attempt an all out assault on NATO.
 
Thank you schmoe and GM.  You made me really contemplate and understand all that Iran has done IN ONE FUCKING WEEK.  The “Russia weak” narrative – I’m not buying it.  The “Iran strong” narrative has absolutely most definitely been proven.

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 6 2026 20:04 utc | 47

The “Russia weak” narrative – I’m not buying it

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 6 2026 20:04 utc | 48
 
You are correct not to buy into that narrative, but it is not strictly what @ GM is pushing. For whatever reason, known only to him/her/itself and a few sycophants, he/she/undecided pushes an anti-Putin agenda, regardless of whether Russia shows weakness or not.
 
In an earlier post, I suggested @ GM set up a political party within Russia, so that the issues raised can be debated in the environment where it truly matters. Bleating on an obscure Western fringe blog isn’t going to achieve the change looked for.
 
 

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 20:20 utc | 48

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 20:20 utc | 49
 
I reread carefully what GM wrote, and I agree with your narrative.  Schmoe was the one pushing Russian military weakness, with GM alluding to Russia being too diplomatically weak or cowardly or whatever to act on its strength.
 
So far the best defense of Putin is that his actions have led to good results for Russia.  Russia is strong, and the US is severely weakened.  So for now, I push back on the idea that Putin has been too passive.  But with all that has happened in the last week, let’s just say that “Putin Weak Putin SUCKS” narratives will prevail if Russia does not initiate something dramatic over the next few weeks.
 
 

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 6 2026 20:40 utc | 49

My position is in agreement with one of GMs snippets:
 
What is Putin waiting for? Maybe the same thing that Iran was waiting for until recently? If Russia wants to win in Ukraine, it must do it now.
Posted by: GM | Mar 6 2026 19:55 utc | 47
 

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 6 2026 20:45 utc | 50

Newbie:
 
Do you remember what you predicted and where you posted it, in terms of a city count for 2025?
 
I’m guessing (could be way off) that you predicted P&M (ok, give you those), Kosty (nope), one of Krama/Slavia (nope), Siversk (ok), Kupyansk (nope?  or do you want to claim it even though they lost it again…never had 100 % control).  I think you also said Hooli (OK) and Orikhiv (nope).  Overall, I think it was definitely less than you predicted, like 50% or so.  And definitely not more than you predicted.  So…Russia was slower than you forecast.

Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 6 2026 20:52 utc | 51

Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 6 2026 20:52 utc | 52
 
A week ago, this would have been interesting.  Today, the only question is:  what will Russia do.
 
And from the Rush song Free Will:  If you choose not to decide, YOU STILL HAVE MADE A CHOICE.

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 6 2026 20:56 utc | 52

@ Woke American | Mar 6 2026 20:45 utc | 51
 
I still really don’t get why the likes of @ GM and @ schmoe are in such a desperate hurry to see Russia/Iran/China finish things quickly. The positioning reeks of Western panic.
 
As a theoretical example, if Russia had succeeded with a massive “shock and awe” operation against Ukraine, four years ago, do you think we would be still discussing the oncoming financial collapse of the West? By biding time, things have been allowed to develop that were inconceivable four years ago, yet we now look at a conceivable scenario of the West being completely de-fanged and demilitarised, because they can’t afford to replace the expended inventory ?
 
The take-down of Empire is in progress, ably assisted by the Empire’s own foolish hurry to re-assert themselves; this is why the trolls bemoan what they see as sloth and slowness.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 21:02 utc | 53

As an example of how Russia is depleting US armaments/resources, see below. Probably this sort of thing happens on a pretty regular basis. Compare the costs/benefits on both sides.
 
“The U.S. Air Force on March 4 scrambled two F-35A and two F-22 fifth generation fighter aircraft to intercept two Russian Tu-142 anti-submarine warfare aircraft in the Alaskan and Canadian Air Defence identification zones, with the Russian aircraft being closely shadowed, and remaining in international airspace. The fighters were supported by four KC-135 tankers, and one E-3 airborne warning and control system (AWACS), while Canada deployed two F-18 fighters and a CC-150 tanker.
 
U.S. defences in Alaska have been hampered by the outstandingly low availability rates of both the F-22 and the F-35, as well as by the growing obsolescence of the E-3 AWACS fleet. The Department of War’s announcement of a decision in early June 2025 to cancel the planned procurement of replacement E-7 systems has faced significant domestic opposition in large part because it will leave Alaska increasingly vulnerable. 
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/us-f22-f35-sintercept-russian-antisubmarine
 
No one can say that the Russians don’t have a sense of humour.

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Mar 6 2026 21:30 utc | 54

V@28

Surovikin explains, that after four years of the SMO a large part of the bridges over the Dnieper, which allow the Ukrainian armed forces to carry out logistics and supply across them, still exist.
It will not remain as before with the destruction of bridges, dams, reservoirs, and energy and transport centers.

A Gnome round these parts used to say that all the time in the bar, got him kicked, booted and booed on many occasions…..
May the Shae be with you…..

Posted by: SenttoCoventry | Mar 6 2026 21:33 utc | 55

Coventry? Yeah, not too much to recommend there; the WW2 memorial stuff around the cathedral has its point, but then again,  having also travelled there via narrowboat along the Coventry Canal, the basin is not the most friendly place to spend a night moored up.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 21:49 utc | 56

in the Alaskan and Canadian Air Defence identification zones,
Jams O’Donnell | Mar 6 2026 21:30 utc | 55

So, a plane in international airspace.
Look it up.
I learnt about “air defence zones” when Nancy Pelosi went to Taiwan.
Taiwanese “air defence zones”  extend a significant way into mainland China.
which allowed the mockingbirds to shrill that the Chinese were “flying within the Taiwanese ADZ” while she was in Taiwan. 
The yanks draw some line and say “air defence zone” .
It means nothing.
Distance between Russia and Alaska is less than 90 kms.
So Russians flying in Russia are sometimes accused of flying “too close” to the US “air defence zones”.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Mar 6 2026 22:13 utc | 57

If the Indians have any sense (a debatable proposition) then they will avoid putting themselves into the same trap as the EU, who are now even more completely dependent on US whims than they were a few years ago. Having the US as their main oil supplier is to relinquish all freedom of political and economic choice. But so good of Trump to give them 30 days to choose – what a splendid guy!
 
WTF is Putin doing about Russian tankers being attacked and sunk all over the place? from what i have seen not much, and is he prepared to supply Cuba with oil because they are a target? 

Posted by: Englishman | Mar 6 2026 22:25 utc | 58

I still really don’t get why the likes of @ GM and @ schmoe are in such a desperate hurry to see Russia/Iran/China finish things quickly. The positioning reeks of Western panic. As a theoretical example, if Russia had succeeded with a massive “shock and awe” operation against Ukraine, four years ago, do you think we would be still discussing the oncoming financial collapse of the West? By biding time, things have been allowed to develop that were inconceivable four years ago, yet we now look at a conceivable scenario of the West being completely de-fanged and demilitarised, because they can’t afford to replace the expended inventory ? The take-down of Empire is in progress, ably assisted by the Empire’s own foolish hurry to re-assert themselves; this is why the trolls bemoan what they see as sloth and slowness.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 21:02 utc | 54
 
Had to step away a bit.  Seeing my country act so malevolently and stupidly gets me over emotional at times.
 
What you wrote is a very solid defense of Putin’s actions.  VERY solid.  I watched a few current videos to see worldwide reaction to the crap going on.  A VERY VERY solid defense.  The US is destroying itself piecemeal.
 
It could be argued that:  if Russia does NOT escalate against NATO soon, it would be because Iran was on a roll and wanted to obliterate US / Israel a bit more first.  I have no idea who planned out the Iranian response to the assassination of Khamenei – but damn that guy is a GENIUS.
 
Russia has absorbed 4 years of NATO munitions and missiles, and an assassination attempt on Putin.  Iran has absorbed 12 days plus a week’s worth.  Plus a successful assassination.  Russia absorbed an attack into Kursk that lasted over 6 months.  So I guess they have to negotiate on who has to absorb what damage moving forward.
 
After reflection, I am less convinced that Russia has to act so decisively at this time.  However, Putin may have to act decisively, or at least fairly aggressively in some new way, to keep himself from being removed from power.  Social and political pressures and all that.  It would be very bad for the US if Putin were replaced.

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 6 2026 22:25 utc | 59

If the Indians have any sense
Posted by: Englishman | Mar 6 2026 22:25 utc | 59
 
Modi must have a lot of intense Epstein File entries.  What India is doing is very obviously bad for India.
 

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 6 2026 22:28 utc | 60

@ Woke American | Mar 6 2026 22:25 utc | 60
 
Nice response, thank you.
 
For this point though:

However, Putin may have to act decisively, or at least fairly aggressively in some new way, to keep himself from being removed from power. Social and political pressures and all that.

I look across the West, indeed the entire Northern Hemisphere, and President Putin of Russia doesn’t strike me as the most likely candidate for an internal toppling…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 22:42 utc | 61

Posted by: Melaleuca | Mar 6 2026 22:13 utc | 58
 
Look what up? I’m quoting an article, not delineating international laws. You seem to have missed the point completely.

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Mar 6 2026 22:45 utc | 62

The “Russia weak” narrative – I’m not buying it. The “Iran strong” narrative has absolutely most definitely been proven.
Posted by: Woke American | Mar 6 2026 20:04 utc | 48

Iran is much stronger than most people imagine. But still much weaker than the three main powers.
 
 
The one thing Iran has is more missiles than anyone else. The Chinese maybe have more. Certainly they can make more. But they don’t need them — China’s problem is a war with the US in the Pacific, and for that purpose they need about a thousand missiles of the SRBM/IRBM/MRBM type to take out everything that needs to be taken out and then the US is defeated. Then it goes nuclear and other missiles come into play, with the short/medium-range conventional ones becoming irrelevant.
 
 
Iran, on the other hand, had to prepare to fight a conventional war being completely surrounded, with no air force, because nobody would sell them planes. And learning how to build jets is much more difficult than learning how to make missiles. So they channeled all effort into making missiles. Cheap and plentiful. Thus my bet on who mas the most medium-range missiles is Iran. Not China.
 
 
This is where Russia’s real military weakness is. Only the Chinese have the capacity to produce more missiles than Russia, thanks to the Soviet legacy. Russia could be pumping out absolutely prodigious quantities of short- and medium-range missiles. But the INF treaty neutered them. So they didn’t have any when the war started. Even though the US exited the INF treaty back in 2017. They still haven’t made up for what they lost on, because of Putin not putting things in motion on time, hoping to make yet another deal where there was no deal to be made.
 
 
BTW, if I recall correctly when the INF treaty was signed several of the top people in the Russian missile program died of heart attacks and suicides. Because they knew what a catastrophe that was going to be, and that the country had been betrayed by its own leadership. They didn’t live to see the even bigger betrayal…
 
 
Still, you see what I ran is doing now.
 
 
Now imagine what Russia could have done with the resources at its disposal if it wanted to.
 
 
At the very least, Iran is taking out all the US ISR it can reach. Meanwhile Russia didn’t dare shoot down a single drone directing strikes on its own official territory in real time, for four years…
 
 
Iran is also striking all the US proxies. Russian never dared strike a single time at the supply lines. Even after the original agreement on the war, which was that the war was going to be fought with Ukraine, with the respective rears untouchable, was (who could have guessed) violated by the West, and the Russian rear began to be attacked in a large scale.
 
 
Right as we have this conversation, there was a Flamingo attack reaching into Kaluga, and air raid alarms are red in Yaroslavl and Chuvashia. A thousand kilometers deep. Violating official Russian nuclear doctrine. Every day. For two years now. No reaction.
 
 
This is all on one person in particular and the business circles that influence/control him.
 
 
Never in history has there been such a situation — so much real military power in the hands of someone so weak/compromised while his country is under direct existential attack. Absolutely unprecedented.

Posted by: GM | Mar 6 2026 22:53 utc | 63

Nice response, thank you. For this point though:

However, Putin may have to act decisively, or at least fairly aggressively in some new way, to keep himself from being removed from power. Social and political pressures and all that.

I look across the West, indeed the entire Northern Hemisphere, and President Putin of Russia doesn’t strike me as the most likely candidate for an internal toppling…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 22:42 utc | 62
 
In my mind it would be more a “changing of the guard”.  From the admittedly few Russian sources that I reference regularly, Russians have had enough.  The odds of a major escalation are high.  And President Putin essentially has no choice despite any reservations he might have.
 
I like the way you called him President Putin.  

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 6 2026 22:54 utc | 64

My position is in agreement with one of GMs snippets:
What is Putin waiting for? Maybe the same thing that Iran was waiting for until recently? If Russia wants to win in Ukraine, it must do it now.Posted by: GM | Mar 6 2026 19:55 utc | 47
Posted by: Woke American | Mar 6 2026 20:45 utc | 51

What happened a week ago is very significant in that it shows that the new Nazis know no limits.
Everyone knew that Iran is a tough nut to crack. It is also the largest country the US has ever attacked. Or fought a war with for other reasons — Japan and Germany were smaller in WWII.
You just don’t do this if you are not released from all restraints.
And we saw how they did it — decapitation strikes, massive bombardment, etc.
We have also seen them send heavy cruise missiles beyond the Urals, i.e. as deep into Russia as it gets.
This means that what was also unthinkable previously — direct war on Russia — is now almost a certainty. They have been talking about it for a long time, just as they talked about war on Iran, they will do it.
But it won’t be the same template, though it will feature of the same elements — there will be a massive attack with hundreds of jets to take out air defenses in Western Russia, but there also are likely to be nuclear strikes to take out Russian launch capabilities. Quite likely those will be done by operators on the ground, the way it was done in Iran in June 2025.
Russia is very vulnerable from a western direction, because it has no mountains to hide stuff in there, it’s all flat wide open plains, and the various arms control treaties and inspection regimes, plus the false sense of security that nobody will attack it, mean that it is not prepared to play the game Iran is playing now. In addition, NATO has now had four years to scout defense in great detail, with the 24/7 drone and missiles attacks.
Given that it is now certain the US will attack Russia eventually, I would not be waiting for that now. I would first defend Iran directly, i.e. flying sorties out of the many Russian bases in the northern Caucasus to shoot down US planes over western Iran, and I would be wiping out the NATO military infrastructure in Europe preemptively, daring them to go into an all-out exchange.
But Putin has done the exact opposite so far.
Worse, Bessent just said that sanctions on Russian oil might be temporarily lifted. Watch how Putin will now supply Europe and the US with oil as they attack his supposed oil. Because, in his immortal words from Valdai a few years ago, “we get money for it”…

Posted by: GM | Mar 6 2026 23:04 utc | 65

If it is indeed true that Surovkin has taken over command of Russian forces then I am sort of pleased but also very afraid.
 
What might it mean. I am speculating but here goes:
 

  1. Russia means to take advantage of the Iranian conflict, with a weakened USA, distracted Europe with economies in free fall, and Ukraine almost emptied of weapons. A no holds barred Surovkin may indeed take the conflict to Odessa and win.
  2. Russia is readying itself to take on the Turkified, Syria, Azerbaijan and Turkey itself, in large part to prevent defeat of Iran. Surovkin was the genius behind the 2015 Russian success in Syria and has the contacts etc. Might be a real winner.
  3. WWIII is about to start. It practically already has but I guess you need all three major players in the game to really call in WWIII. This may mean including the CSTO where Surovkin has been these last 3 years.

 
 

Posted by: watcher | Mar 6 2026 23:07 utc | 66

@ GM | Mar 6 2026 22:53 utc | 64
 
But you still need to take your points into Russia, for debating and discussion where it could make a difference and achieve the outcome you seek.
 
Lengthy bloviating at MoA will not make one jot of difference to political opinion within Russia. If you wish to seek change, do so where it has a chance; stand up for your beliefs and opinions in the place where it really matters, very few, if any, of us here can bring about political change in Russia.
 
Think about your manifesto, how you can make it appealing to the majority of Russian citizens; if you don’t do that, you will fail.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 23:09 utc | 67

For this point though:

However, Putin may have to act decisively, or at least fairly aggressively in some new way, to keep himself from being removed from power. Social and political pressures and all that.

I look across the West, indeed the entire Northern Hemisphere, and President Putin of Russia doesn’t strike me as the most likely candidate for an internal toppling…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 22:42 utc | 62

 
That is Russia’s tragedy though. 
 
Russia could not have boild like the proverbial frog to the point where heavy potentially nuclear armed missiles are launched towards Moscow as happened two hours ago, and there is absolutely no response to it, under any other Russian president.
 
Nobody else could have had the political capital to allow that. 
 
This is a problem, not a good thing.
 
Also, Putin gets too much credit for stuff he didn’t really do himself. There was a stabilization of the country in the 00s, and the Chechen problem was resolved. But the 2000s coincided with oil reaching $147, and it was on the back of that price surge that the Russian economy was stabilized. It’s hard to give Putin credit for peak oil. And after 2008 things stagnated. 
 
You also can’t give him credit for the reindustrialization, because:
 
1) that was forced by sanctions, not initiated by him
 
2) started 15 years into his rule, i.e. way, way too late
 
3) still not done properly
 
So you have someone whose objective record is much worse than the mythology around him and who is in the same time politically untouchable.
 
And who is now behaving like Velcy Putriguez, but that is a taboo subject in the country’s media.
 
Not a good situation to be in…

Posted by: GM | Mar 6 2026 23:14 utc | 68

If it is indeed true that Surovkin has taken over command of Russian forces then I am sort of pleased but also very afraid. 
Posted by: watcher | Mar 6 2026 23:07 utc | 67

 
Where do you get this information from? I see a catastrophic situation with the quality of sources here.
 
I saw this floating from absolute BS sources. 
 
And then this:
 

Dr. Brovkin says Russia might start bombing the outsourced Ukrainian weapon factories and EU organic weapon factories in EU countries and UK.

 
Brovkin? Really? The guy in an absolute lunatic. It’s clear just looking at him. But you have also had years now to listen to him and evaluate the quality of the information provided. And disregard him accordingly. And yet. But what can you expect from people who still think Putin is their savior and refuse to see he is a traitor.

Posted by: GM | Mar 6 2026 23:17 utc | 69

@ GM | Mar 6 2026 23:14 utc | 69
 
Then debate it in Russian forums and media platforms. Whinge-ing about it on MoA will not progress your aims and goals.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 23:18 utc | 70

You know, it is difficult to work why someone so obsessed with getting rid of VVP wastes their energy here.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 23:21 utc | 71

Think about your manifesto, how you can make it appealing to the majority of Russian citizens; if you don’t do that, you will fail.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 23:09 utc | 68

You address this gay clown as if he is a Russian and if he had previously gave this pretense, then he was lying. He does not know Russia, he does not understand her, he is just a TSIPSO plant, one of many.

Posted by: Poslan | Mar 6 2026 23:43 utc | 72

Posted by: GM | Mar 6 2026 23:17 utc | 70
 
NOTE WELL
I said IF true. Get it IF, IF, IF, IF.
 
However any blind idiot can see that the world situation is precarious.  There is conflict between a loose alliance of  Russian allies and the west. It is not quite full on WWIII but bloody close!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Putin and Xi have been trying hard to avoid WWIII which might so easily become nuclear. Somehow I think this may be a lost cause. If I am right then recalling the tainted but brilliant Surovkin, a real hardliner and tough nut makes sense.

Posted by: watcher | Mar 6 2026 23:44 utc | 73

As a theoretical example, if Russia had succeeded with a massive “shock and awe” operation against Ukraine, four years ago, do you think we would be still discussing the oncoming financial collapse of the West?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 21:02 utc | 54

 
Sigh…
Absolute idiocy here.
You clearly have no idea what is happening.
But worse than that, you also have no idea what **has happened** in the last four years. Even though you spent them reading and posting here.
If Russia had taken all of Ukraine in a couple weeks, as it should have, it would have accelerated the Western collapse. Russia not doing it allowed what happened in the last four years to happen.
Brief history lesson.
First, the West was already bankrupt and on a collapse trajectory in the 1970s. Because it started to run out of real resources. Conventional oil in the US peaked in the early 1970s. Thus the move away from the gold standard, the stagflation in the 1970s, the beginning of offshoring and deindustrialization. All the USSR had to be was wait it out.
What saved the system? Partly North Sea, Alaska, offshore, and more Middle Eastern oil coming online. But especially the late Soviet elites deciding to do the greatest act of treason in the history of this planet and hand over everything to their ideological competitors, in exchange for the vague promise of being admitted in the club, and the more tangible conversion of their political power into oligarchic ownership of the commons. The resulting largest ever in history theft of real wealth, going East to West, enabled the prosperity of the 1990s in the West.
Second, why the aggression towards Russia now? Because nothing has fundamentally changed — you have a system relying on perpetual growth running against the limits of finite nonrenewable resources.
Enter the second bankruptcy crisis — the 2008 GFC. Which coincided with oil rising from $30 to $150 after 9/11. But this time it was due to the global peak of conventional oil, not the local one in the CONUS.
What saved the system that time? Well, nothing. It never recovered. Fracking papered over the conventional oil peak, but overall the system did not recover back to what it was. It just kept degrading further and further.
So now Russia has to be taken over and looted thoroughly to buy another few decades. Much more thoroughly than it was in the 90s.
Thus the war.
Now had Russia taken over Ukraine in two weeks, what would have happened? No drones and missiles would be flying into Russia, its economy would be booming, with the addition of 40M ethnic Russians and the most productive farmland on the planet, its major geostrategic problem would be solved.
But the cost of doing that would be to hurt the Russian oligarchy’s interests. So it wasn’t done. And then other things happened. Russia is being hit 24/7 through the proxy. And pinned down, which allowed the West to advance even further.
In case you have been living under a rock, while Russia was “exhausting and defeating” the combined West, and making it “weaker than even”, the empire genocided Gaza, eliminated the most import Russian ally in the Middle East (Syria), flipped Armenia (Armenia of all places, one of the only two genuinely pro-Russian countries together with Bulgaria), Azerbaijan became openly hostile, Central Asia was launched on a the same trajectory Ukraine was in the 00s, Sweden and Finland entered NATO and are now talking about putting nukes there. Then Venezuela was attacked and easily flipped too, with Cuba on the menu next, and now a major war on Iran. This is a catastrophic series of major geostrategic defeats, all stemming from the failure to solve the Ukrainian problem on time.
What makes this so fucked up is that the Ukrainian problem was not solved for purely internal Russian reasons — the banking and resource extraction oligarchy would have had to concede some of its power in order to save the country. And Putin refuses to force it to do so. Even though he has the power to do it.
Notice the fundamental contradiction here. Putin is not untying the hands of the military, decapitating Kiev, doing major offensives, cutting off all ties with West, and nuking Europe, even though these things would all greatly help Russia, not because he can’t do them, but because they would collapse the internal position of the Russian oligarchy (run through the consequences, and you will see why).
But if he was to do them, then the internal position of the Russian oligarchy would collapse, wouldn’t it?
So this too is a problem he can solve — he just does all of those things, the Russian oligarchy collapses, and then that political constraint is removed.
It’s all on him.
This is the reason for the criticism towards Putin. I would be the first to sing his praises if he was behaving as someone working in the interests of Russia. In the first weeks of the SMO I did that, before the truth about the shit show unfolding truly came out. But four years later nobody can still be so blinded…

Posted by: GM | Mar 6 2026 23:48 utc | 74

We could even go as far as suggesting @ GM is a LLM bot, after all, answering he/she/it directly doesn’t bring a direct response.
 
So, let’s see what happens when posting a reply to a post it didn’t make:

Putin is the biggest disaster ever to face Russia, as we face an invasion of the Mongols. Stalin, even Yeltsin would not have allowed this to happen. It’s an absolute catastrophe, it means no more McDonalds available in my liberal Moscow enclave, I can’t get The Guardian online any more, and the metro system gets me around faster than my oligarch-sponsored Lamborghini.
 
Utter chaos and irresponsibility by Putin, my morning latte has gone up by 0.01 rubles, total economic mismanagement

Posted by GM | Mar 66 2026 25:66 utc |

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 23:51 utc | 75

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 23:51 utc | 76

 
Do I sound like a liberal who cares about the prioce of lattes?

Posted by: GM | Mar 7 2026 0:29 utc | 76

Do I sound like a liberal who cares about the prioce of lattes?

Posted by: GM | Mar 7 2026 0:29 utc | 77
 
Yes.
 
Next question?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 7 2026 0:36 utc | 77

In response to

Do I sound like a liberal who cares about the prioce of lattes?
Posted by: GM | Mar 7 2026 0:29 utc | 77

 
LOL!
What you do sound like is someone who is paid to ignore the larger picture of our civilization war going on and instead throw anti Putin shit at the wall so you can buy your latte.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 7 2026 0:46 utc | 78

If the Indians have any sense (a debatable proposition) then they will avoid putting themselves into the same trap as the EU, who are now even more completely dependent on US whims than they were a few years ago. Having the US as their main oil supplier is to relinquish all freedom of political and economic choice.

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Mar 6 2026 12:34 utc | 10
It’s disheartening enough that the US created a conflict in Ukraine to drive a wedge between Russia and the rest of Europe so as to deprive the latter of reliable hydrocarbon supplies. Is Russia acquiescing to the USA’s goal and handing it this undeserved victory? Is collective punishment being foisted on 450 million taxpaying citizens all part of the plan, or “collateral damage”?

Posted by: joey_n | Mar 7 2026 0:48 utc | 79

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Mar 6 2026 23:51 utc | 76
Posted by: GM | Mar 7 2026 0:29 utc | 77Do I sound like a liberal who cares about the prioce of lattes?
Of course not GM.  JRL has not understood your very insightful posts nd profound knowledge of Russia and he SMO.

To me GM you read like a disturbed gay LLM bot very concerned about the current availability of compatible AI rent boys.  

 I hope this comment helps keep your spirits up.
 

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Mar 7 2026 0:50 utc | 80

And kind of fresh marat (concerning near 1.250 day)
 
https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/brief-frontline-report-march-5th
 
Have a go!

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 7 2026 1:39 utc | 81

Is collective punishment being foisted on 450 million taxpaying citizens all part of the plan, or “collateral damage”?
 
Posted by: joey_n | Mar 7 2026 0:48 utc | 80

 
If only those 450 million Europeans were putting up much resistance. A few are — don’t get me wrong — but most are not.

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 7 2026 1:55 utc | 82

Hungary releases a video about stopping Ukraine from looting them.
 
https://odysee.com/@Velyaminov:a/Hungarian-special-forces-intercepts-a-convoy-of-illegally-laundered-funds:b

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 7 2026 3:15 utc | 83

Picture of Hungarian loot recovered:
 
https://gab.com/Vorontzov/posts/116185298133640621

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 7 2026 3:18 utc | 84

🚨BREAKING NEWS
 
The Russian army struck Kiev with Iskander ballistic missiles.🚀🔥

 
video . 
https://x.com/aleksbrz11/status/2030113392065696129
 

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 7 2026 3:29 utc | 85

The effectiveness of Russia’s and Ukraine’s approach to their war has been difficult to assess.  I’m mostly interested in Russia, largely because of the NAFO trolls, Shadowbanned / GM AI, and concern trolls tend to mock and criticize Russia.  According to them, Russia is uniquely incompetent.  They are unable to protect their oil industry from drone attacks.  They shoot down their own aircraft.  Their aerial attacks have failed to destroy Ukraine’s resistance, and on and on.
 
Is Russia uniquely incompetent, or do they face the exact same challenges as other, supposedly more capable, countries such as the U.S.?  We can now answer that question.  In six days of fairly low intensity air combat, and I use that term to include all aerial munitions including drones, aircraft, and missiles, the U.S. has shown it has NO ability to protect critical oil infrastructure.  The U.S. and its allies have, according to their own accounts whether they are true or not, shot down several U.S. aircraft.  The U.S. is slowly draining its stocks of aerial weapons and have failed to stop Iranian attacks.  U.S. aerial bombing appears to have made the Iranian people even more defiant.  Have you noticed the ever expanding U.S. timeline?  The Russians never said they would win the war in 3 days.  The U.S. national leadership, on the other hand, did.  Then it became four to six days, or maybe seven days.  Then it became two to three weeks.  Then two months.  The latest I read is the U.S. will win by some time in September.  That’s six months.  Apparently, fighting a well prepared and resolute military which has major power providing backing, including real time ISR, is a tough nut to crack. 
 
We are only a week into the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran and Iran has done more damage to oil infrastructure, and Israeli cities than Ukraine has managed to do to Russia in four years.
 
I have a bad feeling that as U.S. and Israeli defensive weapons become depleted, Iran’s attacks will become even more destructive and damaging.  I’m not talking about Iran’s high end missiles.  I’m talking about barrages of ten, twenty, or more low end ballistic missiles saturating U.S. and Israeli bases without any real anti-missile opposition.  I also foresee the introduction of advanced Shaheed drones in the class.of the jet powered Russian Geran drones moving across Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, attacking U.S. targets.  I see ISR driven hypersonic missile attacks on high value U.S. targets of opportunity.  I also see the expansion of FPV drones hunting U.S. troops in Iraq.  That last one has already started with the FPV drones attack on a U.S. comm / surveillance antenna tower in Iraq.  I’m also wondering how long before FPV drones become active in Lebanon and among local anti-U.S. forces in Iraq.
 
As those begin to occur, it will let us make even more comparisons between Russia’s performance in Ukraine and the U.S.-Israel’s performance against Iran.  I have a feeling Russia will come out well in that comparison.

Posted by: Nobody Special | Mar 7 2026 4:27 utc | 86

On March 6, Russia and Ukraine conducted another prisoner of war exchange. According to a statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense, 300 Russian servicemen were released from Ukrainian captivity, and in exchange, the Russian side handed over 300 prisoners of war from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.According to the ministry, the released Russian servicemen were initially transported to Belarus. There, they are receiving medical and psychological assistance, after which they will be sent to Russia for treatment and rehabilitation.This exchange was the second stage of a larger agreement, according to which the parties planned to exchange a total of 500 prisoners of war each within two days. The previous day, on March 5, the first stage of the exchange, based on the 200-for-200 formula, had already taken place.

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 7 2026 4:59 utc | 87

You can’t make this up-
 
Blow up their pipeline, sanction their imports, bomb and seize Russian tankers-
 
Then- Its all Putins fault. 🤡

 
screenshot of article . 
https://x.com/BowesChay/status/2029869004253261962

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Mar 7 2026 6:18 utc | 88

video:
 
https://t-me.translate.goog/wargonzo/32753?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en
 
 
 
Strikes on the Ladyzhenskaya Thermal Power Plant and the Dniester Hydroelectric Power Plant: A Night Attack on Ukraine’s Power Grid. On the night of March 7, Russian forces launched a combined strike on Ukrainian territory. The attack utilized Geranium missiles, as well as cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic missiles.The primary targets were energy infrastructure and military installations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in several regions of the country. Explosions rocked Kyiv and the surrounding region, Kharkiv and the Kharkiv region, and Odesa. Reports of strikes came in from the Chernihiv, Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zaporizhia, and Chernivtsi regions.According to sources, strikes in Kyiv targeted energy infrastructure, causing power outages. In the Vinnytsia region, the Ladyzhenskaya Thermal Power Plant was hit by a missile strike. In the Chernihiv region, hits were recorded on the Dniester Hydroelectric Power Plant. In addition, the night attack damaged the railway infrastructure.
 
 
 
 

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 7 2026 7:00 utc | 89

https://www.bitchute.com/video/UfzRInNHN1Xk
 
TCC kidnaps man walking two little dogs… the two little guys put up quite a fight.

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 7 2026 8:03 utc | 90

Hungary confiscated 90 million euros worth of corrupted money. The whole thing could be related to EU politician and official kickbacks, which explains why Brussels is silent, or even called the confiscation of this money ‘state terrorism’.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 7 2026 9:08 utc | 91

Posted by: English Outsider | Mar 6 2026 13:36 utc | 19
Thank you for your thoughtful response, with which I mostly agree. 
“on the question of whether the UK has more influence on US and Western policy than it seems to us in the public, all I can say is that it doesn’t look like it to this outsider. ”
Note that Quigley, whose book I was referencing, is not making that claim. Agency lies with a Secret Elite, not with the UK (or any individual country).
 
“But shady characters doing scrubby work all over the place, though their activities certainly contribute greatly to the death and suffering we in the West are responsible for,  don’t to my mind add up to Britain running the show behind the scenes.”
 
That’s spot on. Thanks again.
 

Posted by: Jan Sobieski | Mar 7 2026 9:31 utc | 92

“Note that Quigley, whose book I was referencing, is not making that claim. Agency lies with a Secret Elite, not with the UK (or any individual country).”
@Jan Sobieski | Mar 7 2026 9:31 utc | 92
But that secret elite was the organisation that built the power of the angloamerican Empire. Where Cecil Rhodes planned to let anglosaxons populate all inhabitable parts of the world. Most UK politicians were under them but some were intertwined with them. That elite caused Germany to be drawn into a malicious conspiracy with the purpose of destroying it. And that elite caused communism. And very important that elite created the central bank system intending to make all democracies subordinates.
Another important aspect concerns how they organised all opinionmaking. And how the journalists were immediately recruited to their intelligence agencies. A full spectrum dominance and the associated thinktanks  became important and have been behind many examples of foreign interference. That elite organised the modern worlds power structure. It is a bit lame to not associate it with the UK.

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Mar 7 2026 10:33 utc | 93

Russia is uniquely incompetent.  They are unable to protect their oil industry from drone attacks.  They shoot down their own aircraft.  Their aerial attacks have failed to destroy Ukraine’s resistance, and on and on.
 
Posted by: Nobody Special | Mar 7 2026 4:27 utc | 86

 
Do not put words in people’s mouths that they never said.
 
Russia is not incompetent, quite the opposite. The problem is political leadership is compromised to the point that even technically legally they should all have been put on trial and shot for high treason. I am not exxagerating in the slightest. Putin signed is death sentence in Istanbul in 2022 already, and with what he did in the last year he signed it several times more. He has absolutely no right to surrender constitutionally Russian land, but that is exactly what he did. 
 
We are not talking about the conduct of the war, not going for all of Ukraine, or allowing strikes into Russia to go unanswered and making a mockery of the nuclear doctrine — yes, both of those are high treason too by any reasonable definition (Ukraine is Russian land too, strikes into Russia are completely unacceptable), but there is some legal wiggle room on those matters.
 
There is none on the issue of surrendering multiple regional capitals of the Russian Federation, or even whole region (Crimea was on the table in Istanbul). It’s an open and immediately shut case. 
 
There is also another clear count of high treason — Putin is working for another country and puts its interests above those of Russia. That country is Israel, and you can be sure that the SVR/GRU have all the evidence to issue another death sentence for the damage he has done to Russia that way too. Entirely separately from the Ukraine catastrophe.
 
So you have Putin who should have multiple death sentences issued for being a traitor, and you also have Ushakov, Dmitriev, Lavrov, and several others involved in giving Russian land away to the enemy without a fight. 
 
Then there is your other fallacy about not being able to protect facilities in Russia. That is complete bullshit. Russian AD shoots down 99% of the drones launched into Russia. That is better than anyone else on this planet can achieve over such a territory. Vastly better. But there is no such thing as 100% successful AD. And the effectiveness of AD is not the issue here, it is the volume of launches. When you allow 200-300 fixed-wing drones to be launched at you every day, of course there will be hits. But who is it that allowed that to happen? Well, we go back to the question of leadership…
 
You see that Iran is striking all the countries around it that are facilitating attacks on Iran. Immediately and without hesitation. Russia, a vastly more powerful country, is behaving like a giant version of whatever helpless victim the Americans chimped out on in the past that you want to bring up as an example. 

Posted by: GM | Mar 7 2026 10:51 utc | 94

https://t.me/dva_majors/89289
 

🏴‍☠🚩Baltic Sea Piracy
🇸🇪The Swedish Coast Guard and police in the Baltic Sea off the coast of Trelleborg in southern Sweden detained the bulk carrier Caffa (flag🇬🇼Guinea). For the operation, idiotic as it was called , “Black Coffee,” helicopters were again deployed, and troops landed from one of them.
Investigative actions are underway on board. The formal reason is suspicion of violating the Maritime Law (the ship is unseaworthy), lack of insurance, and a false flag; the real reason is the vessel’s inclusion on the sanctions list.🇺🇦Ukraine (⁉️).
Unfortunately, our predictions about the intensification of piracy by NATO countries against ships carrying Russian cargo are coming true .
The reason is the lack of timely, adequate response measures .

Posted by: GM | Mar 7 2026 10:51 utc | 95

Russia/Iran:
Which is the best approach?
The Russians have not been bombed, only targeted by drones.
After the war, they will not be poor, so yes, they are doing well.
Even if we may regret their lack of enthusiasm in taking Odessa, but everything comes to those who wait!

Posted by: O R | Mar 7 2026 11:03 utc | 96

https://t.me/CIG_telegram/70754
 
The Russian Embassy in South Africa wrote on X/Twitter:

Russian companies will soon REDIRECT part of LNG exports from Europe to friendly countries — Deputy PM NovakNo more waiting for further Brussels’ restrictionsSuch countries include China, India, Thailand and the Philippines

 
The EU wanted to stop all imports of Russian gas on January 1st 2027 anyway, thinking they could rely on the U.S. and Qatar while continuing to electrify as many vehicles as they can.
With Qatari LNG gone, the cessation of LNG deliveries from Russia could push the EU into an industrial crisis and curtail munitions productions harming the Ukrainian war effort.

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 7 2026 11:32 utc | 97

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 7 2026 11:32 utc | 97
 
After the khabuki theater of Indian ‘ending’ buying Russian oil, India is now ‘restarting’ buying Russian oil after ‘permission’ from the US.
 
The difference is this time Russia set terms from a clean slate – no more DISCOUNTS for oil. Effectively like a force majeure, reset of pricing conditions to accommodate current market pricing.
 
Russia will get massive boon in revenues soon.

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 7 2026 11:36 utc | 98

New poster GM is some kind off pych operative

Posted by: steve | Mar 7 2026 13:14 utc | 99

GM, Got Milk is an AI troublemaker !
 

Posted by: O R | Mar 7 2026 13:20 utc | 100