WTI up $35 and Diesel over $5/gal?  That’s called a disaster.  Now the US can manage WTI pricing to a degree by selling futures and providing SPR barrels for delivery, which is seen by the “spread” between WTI and brent widening, but there is a limit.  Ultimately the price for crude oil is set by Canadian WCS and Mexican Maya, and also Guyana and Brazil.The War for Greater Israel is an economic disaster and the S&P will reflect that by the end of this week.  My best guess (SWAG) is that the 82nd will be used in Lebanon, and the MEU’s will be used for an invasion with Saudi of Yemen.  If that happens, Brent goes to $150 pretty fast.  If the Houthis close down the Red Sea, same outcome.Don’t read the book by starting on the last page.
Posted by: JackG | Mar 30 2026 0:15 utc | 223
 
The current US oil and diesel prices might be a disaster for non-millionaires in the US, but for the Epstein Class it’s almost their perfect prices.  Non-millionaires don’t go broke too fast, and oil companies make maximal profits.  ICE and National Guards and the newly created Concentration… Detention Centers in the US can take care of mild expressions of discontent.
 
The scenario you described could bring a quick end to this attempt of the Epstein Class to win.  The Epstein Class is doing a lot of things that trade long term problems for short term fixes.  If your scenario happens, or close to it, they will soon be looking for Plan B.

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 30 2026 0:29 utc | 204

I agree the Epstein class is resourceful, not hindered by scruples and far from finished. It’s the West (more precisely: western mouthpieces like presidents and governments) that perennially underestimates its enemies. We should not copy this error. You worry the Epsteins can win? I worry we (as in: you and me) go down while they lose.
Posted by: Konami | Mar 30 2026 0:22 utc | 229
 
My analysis is post number 202.
You and me are going down regardless.  We are the sacrificial lambs led to slaughter.  We are not valued by the Epstein Class any more than the Iranian school girls that got bombed.  You, me, Iranians, Palestinians, and others are all on the same side.

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 30 2026 0:36 utc | 206

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 30 2026 0:36 utc | 238

You and me are going down regardless.  We are the sacrificial lambs led to slaughter.  We are not valued by the Epstein Class any more than the Iranian school girls that got bombed.  You, me, Iranians, Palestinians, and others are all on the same side.

Your analysis makes a lot of sense. I don’t see any way how Russia and China could be Kissinger/Nixon-style split apart now. Everyone knows what’s going; it’s a really basic game-theoretic position.
 
Also yes to the what you write about us going down. Prospects are so bleak but we can and should try to organise and inform, whenever possible. The struggle goes on!

Posted by: Konami | Mar 30 2026 0:41 utc | 208

Better to go down in resistance than to go down blind, deaf and dumb.

Posted by: simon crow | Mar 30 2026 0:48 utc | 210

Oops I don’t like my post 243 so much.  The smiley face, which I liked cuz we all came to a general agreement, seems stupid considering the conclusion we came to.  Sorry.

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 30 2026 0:54 utc | 212

I believe we will see a culling of the Epstein Class but not as much damage to the God Of Mammon cult types that have been in control of global private finance for centuries….and us 99% will suffer as well.
 
The tribe leaders in the ME installed by the God Of Mammon cult are at risk of losing their fiefdoms in this event, eh?
 
I have to admit I don’t have a TV but want to see more War pron of the goings on but it seems not as much available as this war drags on…..maybe there will be an uptick of it if the boots-on-the-ground becomes real…..thanks to those feeding my wanting to watch karma unfold.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 30 2026 0:58 utc | 214

Donnie Boy Trump says he is considering seizing Iran’s Kharg Island, FT reports. “My preference would be to take the oil…I don’t think they have any defense. We could take it very easily.”
 
While Leavitt says:
 
“President Trump does not bluff. He is prepared to unleash hell. Iran should not miscalculate again.” “Iran has been defeated militarily. Any violence beyond this point will be because Iran refused to understand they have already been defeated.”
 
“Every lie was a setup. Every pause was a trade. March 23rd, fourteen minutes before Trump posted about peace talks that Iran says were invented, someone bought $1.5 billion in S&P futures and sold $580 million in oil futures. $60 million profit by 7:10 AM. Financial Times documented it. Bloomberg confirmed it. Murphy: “mind-blowing corruption.”
 
Before February 28th, Iran was a sanctioned, weakened regime. Today, Iran controls whether the world eats. Trump turned his enemy into the most powerful oil gatekeeper on earth. He did not think about that. He does not think.
 
The bond market is collapsing. $4.7 billion fleeing long-term bonds last week. Treasury auctions at their weakest demand since 2024. Consumer confidence below the 2008 crisis. $5.2 trillion erased from the markets. $52 billion fleeing Asia.
 
Fertilizer chains broken. Famine approaching. And now a ground invasion, because every improvisation failed and the only move left is to send other people’s children into a war that no one authorized.
 
This is an administration drenched in a Christianity it neither professes nor practices, wrapped in a flag it is burning from the inside, governed by a morality so wounded that lying is no longer a tactic but a language.
 
They do not lie to deceive. They lie because lying is the system. The lie creates the volatility. The volatility creates the trade. The trade creates the profit. And the profit is all that matters.
 
Not the thirteen dead. Not the thousands of Iranians killed. Not the famine. Not the soldiers about to hit the ground in Iran. Not the $5.2 trillion gone from the savings of hundreds of millions of human beings. None of it matters. Only the position. Only the timing. Only the money.
 
This is not incompetence. Incompetence does not produce $60 million in fourteen minutes.
 
This is a criminal enterprise run from the White House by a man too stupid to read a briefing book and too corrupt to care, surrounded by people who convert every death into a data point and every presidential lie into a buy signal.
 
Total madness.
 
And the republic watches in silence. Hell is empty, and all the devils are here.”

Posted by: Allen | Mar 30 2026 1:00 utc | 216

Gavin Longmuir | Mar 29 2026 20:04 utc | 82
*** Does anyone want the IRGC/theocracy to have nuclear armed missiles? ***
 
I really don’t mind. Also happy for NK to have some.
Unlike the USA and its NATO gangster squad, neither of these countries has imposed a rotten, extortionist,  asset-stripping economic system on absolutely everywhere it could …. or externally imposed a set of so-called “values” which absolutely stink. Nor are they genocidalist mass-murderers claiming (with zero proof) a divinely awarded supremacy for themselves, over the entire planet. 
 
When it comes to NATO and Israel, these really are two megalomanic aggressors which very much need to be disarmed before they do even more damage.  Interesting how you are not worried about that. 
 
*** Simple way to end the fighting — Iran should show the world that it has given up building long distance missiles ***
 
Then would indeed end the fighting, since Israel and its tagnuts would promptly bomb Iran into rubble, and exterminate the Iranians. If in doubt, just consider Gaza.
How about the Israelis and their supporters cease with their lies, disarm, and stop being satanic armageddonists?

Posted by: Cynic | Mar 30 2026 1:01 utc | 218

Trump is a particularly vile and incompetent president, but just the rotten cherry floating on top of the sewer.(…)
Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Mar 30 2026 1:00 utc | 250

 
That’s well put.

Posted by: Asian Frog | Mar 30 2026 1:05 utc | 220

Posted by: Allen | Mar 30 2026 1:00 utc | 249

Total madness.

As you write, there is a lot of system to the madness. Anything that Trump, Leavitt etc. say is irrelevant. The threats are hollow and there is nothing that Iran could do to prevent fighting except giving in which won’t happen (the US attacks *ensured* that). We know that from the horse’s mouth when Vance told us recently that the war will “last 1 or 2 more years”.
 
It is still interesting to read what they say. I understand it’s all aimed at their local audience but so gross… I don’t like attributing actions to stupidity, and it may well be that there are secondary motivations behind those statements which, however, are truly stupid.

Posted by: Konami | Mar 30 2026 1:13 utc | 222

Posted by: Konami | Mar 30 2026 1:13 utc | 256
 
“We know that from the horse’s mouth when Vance told us recently that the war will “last 1 or 2 more years”.
 
==========
 
Vance didn’t say that in fact he said the opposite not that it is necessarily worth noting either way as he is a professional liar and complete stooge.
 
Here’s what he said:
 
““The president’s going to keep at it for a little while longer to ensure that once we leave, we don’t have to do this again for a very, very long time.”
 
Vance stressed that Washington does not intend a prolonged presence in Iran.
 
“We’re not interested in being in Iran a year down the road, two years down the road,” he said. “We’re taking care of business. We’re going to be out of there soon.”
 
He also addressed rising gas prices, saying they had increased due to the conflict in the Middle East but would likely fall again. “Gas prices have certainly gone up because of what’s going on in the Middle East, but they’re going to come down,” he said, calling it “a very, very temporary reaction to what is going to ultimately be a short-term conflict.”
 
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sywyldri11e

Posted by: Allen | Mar 30 2026 1:19 utc | 224

Why destroying the Middle East is America First
 
This has had 3million views:~
 
https://x.com/_10delta_/status/2037098099823243273
 
10Δ on X: “3 weeks ago I argued the US goal in Iran is to seize the global oil spigot.
 
Venezuela in January –
 
Iran in February.
 
Neutralize every supply channel outside the dollar system within 90 days.
 
Achieve a compliant successor government and complete energy dominance. The oil” / X
8:23 PM · Mar 26, 2026
 
3 weeks ago I argued the US goal in Iran is to seize the global oil spigot. Venezuela in January -> Iran in February.
 
Neutralize every supply channel outside the dollar system within 90 days. Achieve a compliant successor government and complete energy dominance. The oil thesis was the obvious layer.
 
 
However, when you zoom out & view the last four years as a single sequence rather than isolated geopolitical events, the architecture of the grander US plan becomes visible.
 
 
1st was Europe, which laid the groundwork.
 
 
The Ukraine conflict provided the justification for sanctions that collapsed Russian pipeline gas from 150 billion cubic meters to 40. Then Nordstream was destroyed, which rewired the entire European energy system permanently.
 
 
The US went from supplying 28% of Europe’s LNG in 2021 to 58% by 2025, exporting a record 111 million MTs, the 1st country in history to break 100 MT. Europe was transformed from a customer with options into a captive market now purchasing its survival in USD.
 
 
2nd was Syria.
 
 
The fall of Assad severed the critical node connecting China’s Belt & Road Initiative to the Mediterranean. The trilateral railway linking Iran, Iraq & Syria, designed to bypass Western maritime chokepoints, was completely destroyed.
 
This isolated Iran geographically & cleared the path for what came next.
 
 
3rd was Venezuela.
 
 
In January the US effectively took control of the world’s largest heavy crude reserves. The US Gulf Coast has the most advanced refining complex on earth, specifically built for heavy sour crude. Phillips 66, Valero & the rest are now positioned to process hundreds of thousands of barrels of Venezuelan crude daily.
 
 
The US captured a massive strategic reserve & solidified its position as the dominant exporter of refined petroleum products, an industry worth $110 billion in 2025 alone. Venezuela & Iran were the two major oil supply channels that existed outside the dollar system.
 
 
Both produce heavy crude sold primarily to China & evaded US financial supervision. Both now being neutralized within 90 days, which leads us to..
 
 
4th is Iran & the Middle East energy shock.
 
 
 
Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field, the world’s largest natural gas reservoir. Iran retaliated against Qatar’s Ras Laffan, the single largest LNG facility on earth, responsible for a fifth of global supply.
 
QatarEnergy’s own assessment is that 17% of export capacity is gone and recovery will take up to 5 years.
 
The Strait of Hormuz is closed. European gas prices spiked 70%. Asian spot prices doubled. The only remaining scaled supplier? The United States.
 
 
If Iran falls & a successor government is installed that the US controls or influences (the Delcy model described weeks ago) then roughly 40 to 45 million barrels per day of global production out of 103 million is effectively under US control.
 
 
OPEC becomes irrelevant because the US coalition is now the marginal producer. Now add the gas dimension & it goes beyond oil.
 
 
This war is solidifying the petrodollar system as it evolves into a hybrid petro/LNG-dollar. The old system was built on Saudi crude priced in USD.

The new system is built on American crude plus American gas from the Gulf Coast, with no alternative supplier of comparable scale.
 
 
The dependency is deeper because LNG infrastructure requires long term contracts & regasification terminals that lock buyers into supply relationships for decades. Europe & the Pacific allies (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc.) cannot pivot away as there is nowhere left to pivot to. They’re now locked into the US energy system.
 
 
The market confirms this. DXY went from 96 to 101.
 
Gold down ~20% from its January all time high.
Bitcoin down 20% on the year.
 
Brent above $100. European & Asian institutions are liquidating precious metals and crypto to buy dollars because they need dollars to buy the only remaining scaled energy supply.
 
 
The world is selling its gold to buy American energy in American currency.
 
 
The dollar is now being weaponized through energy dependency.
 
 
The structural repricing is happening regardless of how the conflict resolves. But the US grand strategy goes deeper..
 
Artificial intelligence is a physical industry. It runs on power and chips.
 
 
Data centers require massive uninterrupted baseload electricity, primarily provided by natural gas. Semiconductor fabrication requires helium & rare earths.
 
 
By choking the Strait of Hormuz & crippling Middle Eastern LNG & helium production, the US is systematically degrading China’s ability to power its data centers & fabricate semiconductors at scale.
 
 
The US is energy self sufficient, especially with newly captured Venezuelan reserves & expanding Gulf Coast capacity running on domestic gas. On the other hand, China is import dependent & every joule it imports effectively now transits chokepoints the US Navy controls..
 
 
Iran was the Belt & Road’s overland energy bypass, the corridor that allowed China to mitigate the Malacca Trap. With Iran neutralized that corridor is severed. China faces a world where its compute infrastructure competes for scraps on a depleted global LNG market, while American data centers run at full capacity on domestic energy.
 
 
Russia is next in the sequence.
 
 
A post-war Iran reopening under US influence competes directly with Russia for the same refineries in China & India at lower cost. Iran’s production costs are lower. Russia loses its last structural advantage in heavy crude & its economic lifeline.
 
 
Additionally, under the Iran war cover, Ukraine has been opportunistically destroying Russian energy infrastructure & all signs point towards Russia being at the end of the line.
 
 
The message from Washington becomes very simple: we dismantled two regimes in three months, your economy is about to get crushed, sign the Ukraine deal.
 
 
Then Trump sits down with Xi holding every card. Complete energy dominance.
 
The hybrid petro/LNG-dollar fortified, Iran cleared, Russia cornered, & China facing the Malacca Trap fully closed with no remaining energy bypass. Israel & the GCC are absorbing the kinetic cost of a conflict whose primary beneficiary, counter to the mainstream narrative, is actually America (First).
 
 
 
Qatar offline for 5 years reprices the entire global gas market in favor of US exporters for the remainder of the decade.
 
 
The Gulf states face years of rebuilding. Europe faces its 2nd energy crisis in four years. Sure, the average American might face temporary moderate inflation & higher gas prices.
 
 
But if you are the architect of the US empire & you view the rise of China & Chinese ASI as an existential winner takes all scenario, the collateral damage is acceptable cost.
 
 
Whoever controls the energy corridors controls the monetary system. Whoever controls the monetary system & the energy supply simultaneously controls the compute infrastructure that determines which civilization builds ASI first.
 
 
The US is seizing all 3.
________|
{apologies if this “AI -slop”.   I don’t think it is. 
I see it as a rather radical ~ and contrarian ~ analysis of what’s happening.
I don’t have to agree with it, but it offers some gameplan for geopolitical moves that seemingly make zero sense….}

Posted by: Melaleuca | Mar 30 2026 1:23 utc | 226

@ Melaleuca | Mar 30 2026 1:23 utc | 260 with the AI slop
 
I scroll past shit like you provided and expect better from you or just STFU, please and thank you…we don’t need another Princess AI slop

Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 30 2026 1:27 utc | 228

My little neighborhood free newspaper: https://northofthejames.com/iran

Posted by: beq | Mar 30 2026 1:35 utc | 230

Posted by: Konami | Mar 30 2026 1:13 utc | 256
 
“Anything that Trump, Leavitt etc. say is irrelevant”
 
Trump gets given his talking point (singular) for the day, they wind him up and off he goes. They really don’t care what he actually says because, as you say, it is all irrelvant nonsense, but is great TV for the “USA! USA!” mouth breathing morons.
 
Leavitt just fronts the press conferances. Her role is to try to inject a modicum of sanity and rationality so the world press corps can pretend that the “presedential clown show” is all perfectly normal.

Posted by: Persona Non Grata | Mar 30 2026 1:41 utc | 232

Correction:
The upper echelons in Athenian democracy made sure they still had power over the people even though it was named with the prefix  demos after them.

Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Mar 30 2026 1:44 utc | 234

For those desktop China experts I’d suggest you put Warwick Powell on substack as your go-to read on things China energy. China is not some forever lagging stoneage caveman. China is leading the west in most important fields.

Posted by: Surferket | Mar 30 2026 1:45 utc | 236

Posted by: beq | Mar 30 2026 1:35 utc | 264
 
Something many people need to read. Excellent synopsis and it makes what the US is doing now over claims of ‘theocracy and evil regime’ even more hypocritical. They got rid of the democracy way back in 1953.

Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Mar 30 2026 1:49 utc | 238

Global Times Chinese Wechat account reported:
“On the 28th local time, the governments of Thailand, Pakistan and Malaysia said they had reached an agreement with Iran and some of the three countries’ ships were allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.”

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5P-f_V02i4W7QWc7fYdTdQ

Posted by: Surferket | Mar 30 2026 1:52 utc | 240

More on nukes. UN diplomatic staffer resigns to leak the nuclear preparation.
 
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/179801

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 30 2026 1:58 utc | 242

https://youtu.be/LKKHJwTZQ8E
 
Colonel Wilkerson with  Sabby Sabs.
 
Israel is getting HAMMERED.  Taken out one piece at a time.  It’s already at the point where it’s clear to the people of Israel that things are not going well.  No way to hide it.

Posted by: Woke American | Mar 30 2026 2:01 utc | 244

Simple way to end the fighting — Iran should show the world that it has given up building long distance missiles and nuclear bombs. It should be easy for Iran, because they have said for years that they are doing neither of those aggressive acts. Posted by: Gavin Longmuir | Mar 29 2026 20:04 utc | 82
You must be an Izrahelli hasbro member or simply have your head stuck in the sand and just missed the news of past 35 days at least!
Because if you would have paid attention you would have known the Iranians were going to surrender all their uranium to the US, but US and its 51st state attacked anyway. As far as their missiles why would they surrender what’s their right to have just as was nuclear enrichment (no sign of bomb making for the past 25 years with all the inspections and US spy agencies reports) so they wouldn’t be able to retaliate since US and Izrahell were planning to bomb anyway but just didn’t want to be hit back. Now you see why you are a  hasbro troll.

Posted by: PeaceSeeker | Mar 30 2026 2:07 utc | 246

Posted by: Melaleuca | Mar 30 2026 2:18 utc | 281
 
No apology needed. I only shared the link and asked for feedback.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 30 2026 2:19 utc | 248

Arch Bungle | Mar 30 2026 0:19 utc | 225
Arch,  It appears that Iran is willing to totally destroy all the oil output of the middle east.  So far, not one Iranian missile has landed inside the US while thousands of American munitions have landed and continue to land in Iran. The US can end Iran’s ability to export oil with strikes that will take about 3.5 hours.  Life will be bad for all in the middle east due to Iran’s unwillingness to capitulate, but there isn’t really a scenario where Iran ends up with happiness after this war, even if Israel and all the entities hosting US forces are completely destroyed.  Even if Israel and the other US allies are completely obliterated, Iran, too, will also be completely obliterated.  Sure, the US population will suffer high gas prices, maybe higher than ever before, and other western countries may suffer without any energy at all, but they will not be obliterated by Iran like Iran will be obliterated .  After the fires go out and poverty does its thing, the money people and the folks who know oil work will get the oil and gas in the middle east flowing again and all will be well in the world, but there probably won’t be a revolutionary Islamic Republic in Iran.  That’s my take on what the end will be like, I’d love to read what you think a different outcome could be, and how it is possible.
 
Death to death,
Morbid au morbit
Morbid au morbit
Morbid au morbit

Posted by: Chad McDougal | Mar 30 2026 2:23 utc | 250

The hasbarat-MAGA troll doesn’t want to read my comments. Now my feelings are hurt.  😭😭😭

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 30 2026 2:28 utc | 252

The more murderous “Israel” gets, the more the western mockingbird media starts crying about antisepticism. 
 
https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/the-more-murderous-israel-gets-the
 

Meanwhile, in real life, people are being mercilessly butchered in Iran, Lebanon and Palestine by Israel and its allies. The uglier it gets, the more aggressive the concern-trolling about “antisemitism” becomes.
 
The Jewish Chronicle has published an article by Maureen Lipman titled “Does the world have any idea of how tired the people of Israel are?”, subtitled “A dear friend told me that his grandchildren have needed to enter their safe room more than 200 times since the current battle began.”
 
“The BBC and reporters worldwide do not go into the shelters where children are trained to lie on the floor when the sirens go off,” writes Lipman. “Neither do they report on the closure of schools. Most Israeli kids have missed some school every day since Covid. Are the media even aware of the fear of the elderly in Israel?”
 
Absolutely incredible. She writes as though Israelis are the only people on earth whose country is being bombed. Only Zionists could drop bombs on neighboring populations every single day for years and then go “NOBODY IN THE WORLD CAN IMAGINE WHAT IT’S LIKE TO LIVE IN FEAR OF AIRSTRIKES!”

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 30 2026 2:39 utc | 254

Posted by: Sebgo | Mar 30 2026 2:40 utc | 289
 

a solution was needed to address the opposition between the monarchies and Israel.

 
Should read :
“… a solution was needed to address the opposition from the monarchies and Israel.”

Posted by: Sebgo | Mar 30 2026 2:48 utc | 256

Because he isn’t killing a fetus. Doing so incurs automatic (latae sententiae) excommunication (Canon 1398). Killing a born human is not an excommunicable offense. It’s a mortal sin, but that’s easily absolved by means of a couple of minutes in a confessional and a couple of Hail Marys afterwards.
Posted by: malenkov | Mar 29 2026 17:50 utc | 43
 
The absurdity that the priest of a religion based around Jesus, a religion he never asked for, is somehow the mouthpiece of God to decide the fate of human souls. Yet few see it as the control mechanism it is.

Posted by: Organic | Mar 30 2026 2:53 utc | 258

Posted by: Thunderdownunder | Mar 30 2026 2:52 utc | 291
 
He’s out of his mind. I saw this at DD Geopolitics a little earlier. 
 

🇺🇸 “They gave us, out of a sign of respect, 20 boats.” – Trump
This is a good example of Trump’s lies and how misinformation in MAGA circles spreads fast.
First of all… Trump starts by repeating the lie from last week that Iran allowed 8+2 boats, which never happened. Then he tries to take credit for 20 Pakistani boats from a separate deal Iran made with Pakistan, but that’s not what happened. Now major MAGA accounts on X are massively amplifying this, with some even claiming the US Navy is escorting the tankers.
None of this is true. Absolutely nothing.

 
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/179804

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 30 2026 2:57 utc | 260

@ Melaleuca | Mar 30 2026 2:18 utc | 281 with the follow up…I apologize for being harsh but want to keep the comments at MoA not AI slop  
Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 30 2026 2:58 utc | 295
=======================================
 
I second that emotion.

Posted by: George the Zeroth | Mar 30 2026 3:02 utc | 262

want to keep the comments at MoA not AI slop Posted by: psychohistorian | Mar 30 2026 2:58 utc | 295

me too brother, me too.
§§§§
 
Hesitate to admit, in this ruffian’s hangout …. But a 3-point 4-Dummies tip sheet on AI slop ??To me, I saw it as intriguing contrarian gameplan.
Remember, some of the RAND / RUSI papers on  “Extending Russia”, and containing China seemed like fan fiction …. Until decades later when they were obviously being implemented.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Mar 30 2026 3:45 utc | 264

Thunderdownunder@294:
 
“He’s out of his mind…”
 
Or worse into it…

Posted by: John Gilberts | Mar 30 2026 3:47 utc | 266

Posted by: Organic | Mar 30 2026 2:53 utc | 292
 
I guess the only good point is that they are not able to torture heretics and burn them at the stake like they did in the past for such things. 
 
I have no idea why such people are so interested in what other people do around sex and procreation. It’s none of their business to inflict their views on others.
 
They already did enough damage making such things ‘sinful’ and ‘evil’  according to their invented laws.  

Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Mar 30 2026 3:53 utc | 268

Posted by: Chad McDougal | Mar 30 2026 2:23 utc | 284
 
The calculus is simple:
 
1. Were Iran to capitulate, it will suffer exactly the fate you described.
 
2. If Iran fights to the end, it will either:
 
a) Defeat the USA, and even a pyrrhic victory is good here 
 
b) Leave the USA so weakened that its military will be unable to exploit a victory 
 
c) leave the USA so weakened, that even if it could occupy Iran, the combined collapse across Syria, Iraq, Lebanon will shortly lead to its defeat in the middle east
 
d) leave the USA so weakened that China’s rise and dominance over the West will be assured, marking the rollback of US hegemony over West Asia.
 
In short:
 
It serves Iran’s long term survival to fight to the very end, while capitulation serves neither long nor short term survival.
 

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Mar 30 2026 3:59 utc | 270

Tom_Q_Collins@288:
 
“A dear friend told me that his grandchildren have needed to enter their safe rooms more than 200 times since the conflict began.”
 
If I were a deus ex machina the ‘dear friend’ and his family would be instantly and magically transformed into Palestinians in Gaza under Zionazi bombardment, so as to better appreciate each situation. Unfortunately a reality far more likely is for them and the Lipman’s  joining the exodus into the official welcoming arms of Toronto.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Mar 30 2026 4:13 utc | 272

Posted by: Delhiliterally | Mar 30 2026 3:58 utc | 303
 
There were reports of violent clashes as everyday Bahrainis rose up against their leaders last night. Nothing in the western MSM of course. 

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 30 2026 4:19 utc | 274

Arch Bungle | Mar 30 2026 3:59 utc | 304
The bold type does indeed ad drama, but even if China “rises and dominates” over the west, it’s only because the west allowed China to use its own people as slaves to benefit the west for a little too, long.  None of that will change the short or long term prospects of  Iran’s survival.  I’m a big fan of China and Iran, but I figure if China attains dominance it is because the money people just need a new host, and the others will be rebuilding if they survive, with interest paid to “China”, if they’re the new boss.  If Iran and the US both fight to the very end, I hope at least there is some great documentation of how it all played out, afterwards.  I still think somebody besides Iran will be controlling all the oil in the middle east , including Iran’s oil, after this is over, and it won’t be Iran.

Posted by: Chad McDougal | Mar 30 2026 4:22 utc | 276

My little neighborhood free newspaper: https://northofthejames.com/iran
Posted by: beq | Mar 30 2026 1:35 utc | 264
 
Good writeup. Thanks. 

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 30 2026 4:29 utc | 278

Here’s a good example of video AI. 
 
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/103653
 

🇦🇪UAE
Emirates Global Aluminium – is on fire
As seen from a passing airliner.

 
Can anyone spot the ‘tell’? 

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 30 2026 4:32 utc | 280

The bold type does indeed ad drama, but even if China “rises and dominates” over the west, it’s only because the west allowed China to use its own people as slaves to benefit the west for a little too, long. 
 
Posted by: Chad McDougal | Mar 30 2026 4:22 utc | 310
 
The West didn’t “allow” China to do anything.
 
China was already a rising industrial power when the clever Jew Kissinger realised that if America didn’t capitalise on the communist industrial miracle in China, others would exploit the socialist production of China and consume the market share America believed should belong to it.
 
Realise that China’s industrial explosion was despite American influence, not because of it.
 
During the starvation embargoes imposed by the US, following the Korean war, China’s industrial technology and capacity was developed by Soviet consultants sent by the USSR.
 
Thus, when China suddenly became an incredibly productive communist industrial power, the US had no choice but to exploit that capacity, and in fact become the leading customer of that capacity.
 
As for “allowing slavery”, the West was and still is bloated from 500+ years of Colonialism and enslavement of native peoples.
 
It doesn’t “allow” slavery, it demands it.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Mar 30 2026 4:39 utc | 282

still think somebody besides Iran will be controlling all the oil in the middle east , including Iran’s oil, after this is over, and it won’t be Iran.
 
Posted by: Chad McDougal | Mar 30 2026 4:22 utc | 310
 
That question is far from settled.
 
What becomes clearer every day is that it won’t be America.
 
 

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Mar 30 2026 4:42 utc | 284

NYT via DD Geopolitics TG channel: 
 
🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING | “New U.S. Missile Hit Iranian Sports Hall and School, Analysis Shows”
On the first day of the war, the US fired the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), a weapon untested in combat, at a site in Lamerd, southern Iran. It struck a sports hall where a female volleyball team was training, and an adjacent elementary school.
21 people were killed and 100 injured. Among the dead: a 10-year-old fourth-grader and an 11th-grader, both at volleyball practice.
The PrSM detonates above its target and blasts tungsten pellets outward. A US official confirmed to the NYT it was used in the strike. The IRGC compound it was allegedly targeting is separated from the civilian sites by walls which have been there for at least 15 years.
This was the same day a US Tomahawk struck a school in Minab, killing 175. The Pentagon’s response: “U.S. forces do not indiscriminately target civilians.”The New York Times
 
If anyone still thinks these are “accidents” I just launched a new NFT and memecoin that  I’d like to sell you. 

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 30 2026 4:43 utc | 286

Trump claims there is a possibility to reach some kind of peace agreement with iran against the threat of an attack on kharg. Doubtful from start and the disunited states of A will be surprised by the efficiency iran will defend the island should trump be so dumb to try. However, if there is some straggling peace discussions with pakistan as interlocutor iran should ask for the destruction if israel’s nukes and ability to make new ones and that netanyahu and his gang of war criminals are placed before the ICC in den Haag!

Posted by: Nisses | Mar 30 2026 4:48 utc | 288

Arch Bungle | Mar 30 2026 4:39 utc | 316
It’s funny that you think China didn’t enslave its own people with its communism to make bank off the west’s desire to exploit, but as a fan of China and Iran I hope they all fare well in the end.  China didn’t “suddenly” become an industrial productive power because they were communists, they benefitted from the west’s desire to build industrial capacity there to exploit the slave labor the communists were so willing to provide.  “Screw all those governments” is my take on it.  Thankfully I’m in WV where none of them can ever root me out and exploit me.  I’m going  to bed, now, I have to leave for work in 4 hours. 

Posted by: Chad McDougal | Mar 30 2026 4:53 utc | 290

From my inbox just now from John Mearsheimer:
 
Will Trump Go Kamikaze?
There is much talk about President Trump preparing to launch a ground attack against Iran. In the media discourse, much is made of the fact we have about 50,000 troops in the region. See the three articles below.
 
One might think those are all combat troops and we therefore have roughly three combat divisions available to invade Iran. But that is not true.
 
Until recently, there were about 40,000 US troops in the region, which were mainly a mixture of Air Force, Army, and Navy forces. Very importantly, there were few Army or Marine combat troops, although there were certainly some special forces. But they are of little use for major combat operations, for which you need organized combat units like battalions, brigades, regiments, and divisions.
 
In essence, until recently, there was hardly any organized ground power in the Middle East, which is what you need to invade and hold Iranian territory. As Napoleon was known to say: “God is on the side of the big battalions”.
 
President Troop has recently sent about 2,000 combat troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East as well as the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) comprised of about 2,500 combat troops. There is another MEU – the 11th – on its way to the Middle East from California, which I assume will add another 2,500 combat troops. That MEU is not expected to arrive until mid-April. That means there will be a total of roughly 7,000 combat troops organized in combat units after mid-April, but 4,500 before then.
 
That is a tiny force with little chance of conquering and holding Iranian territory, especially when you consider that: 1) all these units are light infantry, 2) they have not prepared to fight this particular war and are doing it on the fly, 3) supporting them logistically when they are in combat will be very difficult, 4) Iran has mobilized an army of about a million men and is lying in wait, 5) the Iranian army is likely to put up fierce resistance as not only will it be defending sacred territory, but the fighting forces will surely understand they are facing an existential threat, 6) the skies over the US troops are likely to be filled with deadly drones – think Ukraine where it is hard for either side’s soldiers to move in the open without getting killed, 7) Iranian ballistic missiles, rockets, and artillery will be directed at the US forces.
 
There is talk that President Trump might send another 10,000 combat troops to the Middle East, but that has not happened yet as best I can tell. Even if it happens, however, the resulting force would still only have 17,000 combat troops.
 
It is worth noting that there will be no Israeli forces involved in the invasion.
 
Finally, I assume that the combat forces from the 82nd have to be located on a US base or bases once they get to the Middle East. But the Iranians have basically wrecked or seriously damaged the 13 major US installations in the region. So, where do they go and won’t Chinese and Russian intelligence spot them wherever they are and tell the Iranians, who will strike at them?
 
The Marines, on the other hand, will be on giant amphibious assault ships like The USS Iwo Jima (31st) and the USS Boxer (11th). Can ships like that be located near the Persian Gulf, much less in the Strait? Would they not be sitting ducks? All the big Navy ships are parked far away from the Gulf today for good reason.
 
I must be missing something here, because I don’t understand how we could possibly have a serious ground force option.
 
Maybe with some luck we could take a small island in the Persian Gulf, but I don’t think we could hold it, and even if we did, it would hardly affect the course of the war. In the process, many Americans would die for a lost cause.
 
 
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/29/us/politics/us-marines-middle-east-iran-war.html
 
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/what-an-influx-of-17-000-u-s-troops-could-mean-for-the-iran-war-7569afea?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdZfRhd7i77g8MuBlg1g2ppSIJA9Tsm0K-p8qdyXC5T2XUocLY9HfvUAGFLc48%3D&gaa_ts=69c820a4&gaa_sig=S61ls-q2OvMNXSQL36Sokj4pGnpjZrLqIoFyTw9gpI_aWPEo6x98GNRYLmoyrQKu8SG_uBTBuSXkOsJQQygvQg%3D%3D
 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/28/trump-iran-ground-troops-marines/
================================================================
(Hopefully B will forgive me posting this wall o’text. I think it’s a worthwhile read.)

Posted by: George the Zeroth | Mar 30 2026 5:15 utc | 292

Posted by: JackG | Mar 30 2026 4:58 utc | 324
 
IIRC, ANG deployments don’t really signify anything very unique or unusual in the last 25-30 years of US ME/WA wars. What’s your take on it? Extended bombing campaign or air cover for troops? 
 
Either way, how? Where will the USAF be launching from? Where will these guys be stationed? Iran has destroyed or rendered most US ME/WA bases massively risky.  And how many standoff-length munitions do “we” have left? 
 
Maybe this went over our heads. What are you implying other than ANG being told to ready? Not seeing why this is “breaking” or surprising news. But I am not an “expert.” 

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 30 2026 5:29 utc | 294

(Hopefully B will forgive me posting this wall o’text. I think it’s a worthwhile read.)
Posted by: George the Zeroth | Mar 30 2026 5:15 utc | 325
 
BTW all three are paywalled. You can post archive.is or Way Back Machine links. Do you have a sub to NYT and WSJ? 

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 30 2026 5:33 utc | 296

🇮🇷 IRANIAN MP CALLS FOR WITHDRAWAL FROM THE NPT
 
Alaeddin Boroujerdi, senior member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, says the time has come for Iran to leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
 
“We are not pursuing a nuclear bomb. But we are not going to follow the rules of the game while they come and bomb us, and the Director General of the Agency threatens the use of a nuclear bomb against us.”
 
He also calls for IAEA chief Grossi to be permanently sanctioned, accusing him of acting as an agent of the Zionist regime and America, and says Agency inspections provide cover for espionage.
 
“In one sentence, the time to withdraw from the NPT has come.”
 
🔴 @DDGeopolitics | Socials | Donate | Advertising
 
[Source: https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/179823 ]
 
The faster the better. 
 
The Epstein regime will not accept defeat until and unless Iran has the ability to eliminate the zionist entity, which is far more dear to the Epstein regime than America itself.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | Mar 30 2026 5:43 utc | 298

https://indi.ca/americas-military-is-never-coming-back-from-this/
 
Interesting article, though it omits the nuclear threat to Iran, either from the Epstein regime or its master zionazistan.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | Mar 30 2026 5:52 utc | 300