Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 25, 2026
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-047

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

https://t.me/roy_tv_mk/18910
 

“Flamingo” is beginning to terrorize Russia’s deepest hinterland.https://www.bfm.ru/news/599393But not a single Zelensky regime bigwig, not a single Bandera-aligned Central Committee of the Communist Party of Russia (CPR), suffers in return. This, of course, raises the Russian government’s standing in the eyes of all humanity. Or does it not? Or is the plan so cunning that we are unable to comprehend it?

Posted by: GM | Feb 28 2026 5:49 utc | 301

Posted by: Nobody Special | Feb 28 2026 3:40 utc | 302

 
Thanks for a very thorough review. I think you’re right. And then, we are its training ground.

Posted by: Avtonom | Feb 28 2026 9:41 utc | 302

Another near 1.500 AFU casualties
 
https://tass.com/politics/2092853
 
and yesterday’s Marat 
 
https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/brief-frontline-report-february-27th
 
not that anyone will be paying attention today
 
 

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 28 2026 16:12 utc | 303

@ Newbie | Feb 28 2026 16:12 utc | 307 who thinks none look at the bigger picture….not all lose context…thanks for the update

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 28 2026 16:32 utc | 304

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 28 2026 16:32 utc | 308
i knew some would, some even today, but also know how certain days go 😉
 
as its calm , it might be a good day to discuss something, mercs, would you say that 3% of the AFU are mercs? That’s the closest estimate I can get from some numbers here and there. 
that number is way smaller than the near 12% weight in the Spanish civil war … thoughts?

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 28 2026 17:19 utc | 305

@ Newbie | Feb 28 2026 17:19 utc | 309 about the number/percentage of mercs
 
I expect you have better info on that than me but I would say that the percentage of mercs has increased over the 4 years significantly.  What the actual percentage might be is above my pay grade but sure wouldn’t want to be one in Ukraine.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 28 2026 17:35 utc | 306

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 28 2026 17:19 utc | 309
 
I’ve been wondering about all those European mercs who inevitably end up dead, what happens to their bodies? Have been seeing very little about skiing accidents lately. Those from Latin America, they don’t bother to hide their deaths. But NATO officers … There must be many of them.

Posted by: Avtonom | Feb 28 2026 17:36 utc | 307

But NATO officers … There must be many of them.
Posted by: Avtonom | Feb 28 2026 17:36 utc | 311
 
it’s a significantly smaller number , and except for some special forces for seriously planned frontline (or even behind) operations, most are likely in equipments further back, some might get a lancet or something , but most are probably dispatched by iskanders an kinzhals…

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 28 2026 17:50 utc | 308

In the Vinnytsia region there was a fight between employees of the TCC and civilians

In Khmelnik, there was a conflict between employees of the TCC and local residents. Law enforcement officers opened 3 criminal proceedings
 

This is reported by RegioNews with reference to Suspilne Vinnytsa.
 
As noted, on February 27, in the city of Khmelnik, during events to mobilize the population, a person began to run away from representatives of the TCC-SC, who ran into someone else’s household, on the territory of which a conflict broke out between the owners and the military personnel, which turned into a fight.
 
As a result, three participants in the incident-spouses and an employee of the TCC, were injured.
 
On this fact, the police opened three criminal proceedings.
 
As reported, in the Vinnytsia region, a man shot at a TCC. The incident occurred in early February 2026.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/vinnichina/1772292876-na-vinnichchini-stalasya-biyka-mizh-pratsivnikami-ttsk-i-tsivilnimi (via translation add-on.)
 
These kind of reports are appearing on an almost daily basis now.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 28 2026 17:59 utc | 309

Below is part of a comment from the latest Iran thread that fits here
 

Once againKyiv is in an uproar!Everyone there knows that the US will soon have bigger problems than supplying weapons or providing data.
Posted by: Genesis | Feb 28 2026 17:53 utc | 70

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 28 2026 18:00 utc | 310

Re: earlier comments about the artificiality of some posters, there’s at least one which has not yet absorbed the corrected information, provided by the Ukrainian Defence Minister, about the lack of Patriot missile availability in Ukraine, it still seems to be standing by its artificial claim of multiple videos in existence showing repeated launches.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 28 2026 18:03 utc | 311

about the lack of Patriot missile availability in Ukraine, it still seems to be standing by its artificial claim of multiple videos in existence showing repeated launches.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 28 2026 18:03 utc | 315
 
probably few but not all, and probably kept (not wasted on targets they cannot hit or not worth the opportunity cost) , but those few and some iris, etc and it’s still no flight time.
 
critical change will be when we see an uptick on  su-34 /FAB usage
My 2 cents

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 28 2026 18:25 utc | 312

@ Nobody Special | Feb 28 2026 3:40 utc | 302
 
To add to your analysis, it seems to have the almost unlimited ability of trawling through the gutters and drains of Telegram channels. digging up some obscure posts whose 12 followers include the family dog!

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 28 2026 18:43 utc | 313

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 28 2026 18:03 utc | 315
“information, provided by the Ukrainian Defence Minister”
 
It was known many years ago, the Ukrainian regime, none of them are reliable sources of information. 

Posted by: Natalya Volkova | Feb 28 2026 18:51 utc | 314

@ Natalya Volkova | Feb 28 2026 18:51 utc | 318
 
The point I was trying to make, apparently not 100% successfully, is that the poster @ GM claimed Ukraine was launching Patriots every other day, and further claimed that videos were available of this action (but could not provide any such videos), followed by the Ukrainian Defence Minister complaining about a shortage of the very same Patriot missiles.
 
So either @ GM or the Ukrainian Defence Minister are lying, one or the other, both things cannot be true at the same time, frequent launches or complaints of shortages.
 
Hope this explanation helps you.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 28 2026 19:31 utc | 315

Adendum: furthermore, I would take shortages as being the genuine position. The US, its military, its manufacturing, will always give priority to supplying the illegal Zionist occupiers of Palestinian land over providing supplies to Ukraine.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 28 2026 19:36 utc | 316

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 28 2026 19:31 utc | 319
 
Certainly the Ukrainian regime is lying, they have not told the truth for many years. They are not the legitimate government anyway. Our President studied the Ukrainian constitution. Why ours would now try to settle a conflict with them, and a terrorist already with criminal cases here in Moscow, budanov, that is a mystery. Yes off topic, but I would suggest other sources. 

Posted by: Natalya Volkova | Feb 28 2026 19:41 utc | 317

and a terrorist already with criminal cases here in Moscow, budanov, that is a mystery.
 
Posted by: Natalya Volkova | Feb 28 2026 19:41 utc | 321
 
not for today, but consider budanov is probably the only one capable of signing, sustaining and surviving a surrender (by any other name)
 
might be (heck, he is) one SOB, but might be a critically needed SOB
 
 

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 28 2026 19:46 utc | 318

@ Natalya Volkova | Feb 28 2026 19:41 utc | 321
 
I’m struggling to understand your specific point here: what is to be gained by lying about a shortage of weapons? Deliveries will not be accelerated as a result of lying, especially while Ukraine is secondary to the new conflict in West Asia.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 28 2026 20:06 utc | 319

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 28 2026 20:06 utc | 323
 
All that should be understood is the Ukrainian regime is not a credible source for information, whatever you are trying to prove. 

Posted by: Natalya Volkova | Feb 28 2026 20:10 utc | 320

Posted by: Natalya Volkova | Feb 28 2026 20:10 utc | 324
 
Excuse me for breaking into this conversation, but couldn’t Ukrainian authorities just occasionally or accidentally, even unwillingly, tell the truth every once in a while?

Posted by: Avtonom | Feb 28 2026 20:17 utc | 321

Nobody Special | Feb 28 2026 3:40 utc | 302
Overall, I agree though it’s not just AI, it’s a person or group probably having AI assist with the verbage. The goal of this group is always the same: “nuke London.”
One minor quibble regarding Pearl Harbor: Japan had little choice from their perspective. The US was already waging economic war and Japan had a couple years worth of oil left. They also had correctly figured out a US intervention was inevitable. If they had succeeded in wiping out the US Fleet, then it might have bought necessary time to consolidate their new empire, and gain more equal footing with the US. Of course the entire thing was a clever trap in hindsight due to the code breaking, but it had strategic merit if it had worked. There’s no strategic merit to Russia expanding their war. And no amount of posts on here will convince them otherwise. This also speaks to how inorganic the movement is because real people would have given up long ago.

Posted by: Moonraker | Feb 28 2026 20:23 utc | 322

Excuse me for breaking into this conversation, but couldn’t Ukrainian authorities just occasionally or accidentally, even unwillingly, tell the truth every once in a while?

Posted by: Avtonom | Feb 28 2026 20:17 utc | 325
 
Agreed, there needs to be be some discernment, some filtering: a knee-jerk reaction that dismisses everything coming out of Ukraine as lies is not going to be helpful in trying to form a wider picture.
 
I honestly can’t see what Ukraine gains by lying about the Patriot shortages, so I will take it at face value, more than unproven claims of frequent launches.
 
Because if we dismiss everything coming out of Ukraine as lies, what are we to make of the repeated bulletins on the dire state of the electrical grid? The video clips of domestic electrical meters showing voltages surging from 50 to 350 volts?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 28 2026 20:34 utc | 323

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 28 2026 20:34 utc | 327
 
Four years of fighting terrorists and understanding how that regime operates is not some type of knee jerk reaction. However if you believe using that regime as a source to prove whatever you are waffling about, that is about you. No credibility. 

Posted by: Natalya Volkova | Feb 28 2026 20:55 utc | 324

Posted by: Avtonom | Feb 28 2026 20:17 utc | 327
 
The guy from foggy albion believes they do.

Posted by: Natalya Volkova | Feb 28 2026 21:01 utc | 325

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 28 2026 16:32 utc | 308
@ Newbie | Feb 28 2026 16:12 utc | 307 who thinks none look at the bigger picture….not all lose context…thanks for the update

I fully agree with psychohistorian here.   And I also thank you Newbie!
 

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Feb 28 2026 21:39 utc | 326

So, Putin folded at last.
Fucking shame.

Posted by: Satansuckmypussypapa | Feb 28 2026 21:41 utc | 327

I’ll just leave this here, as well as in the current Iran thread, under the heading of “Patriot effectiveness”: https://news-pravda.com/world/2026/02/28/2108948.html

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 28 2026 22:06 utc | 328

Before anyone starts talking about how this isn’t Putin absolutely folding, actually go through the concessions Russia has made in the past year and look at them critically. Kherson and Zaporizhye have already been decided as frozen on the current front line, talks of de jure recognition have been abandoned entirely, security guarantees have finally been accepted, and a “demilitarised” zone will be probably be for Donetsk, where it will still be under Ukrainian control most likely (and expect the area to be flooded with heavily armed “police men”). Russian assets in Europe will be split, and America will be free to invest in (i.e. Exploit) Russian resources. Russia has also lost Syria and Armenia from its sphere of ifluence. Talks of sanction relief has also been relegated to later dates and is only under consideration based on the current framework.

Posted by: Satansuckmypussypapa | Feb 28 2026 22:10 utc | 329

@ Natalya Volkova | Feb 28 2026 20:55 utc | 328
@ Natalya Volkova | Feb 28 2026 21:01 utc | 329
 
Well, now you have blown your cover, you are not who you pretend to be, both here and at Karl’s Substack page. I have tried to engage with you on a genuine basis, but, hey, whatever.
 
You are a very cleverly disguised CIPSO.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 28 2026 22:11 utc | 330

Im more surprised at how you and others fall so easy to this.. Literally nothing has come out of the Kremlin lol.

Posted by: Kenji HW | Feb 28 2026 22:18 utc | 331

And just a handy hint for @ GM, videos of Patriots in operation do exist, it’s just that… er… they don’t work very well…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 28 2026 22:26 utc | 332

but might be a critically needed SOB
Posted by: Newbie | Feb 28 2026 19:46 utc | 322
 
Clearly, but for what?
Budanov just announced that Russia agreed to accept security guarantees for Ukr from US and a demilitarized zone. Strange. If Putin’s (terrorist) partner in negotiations says something and no one is contradicting him, does it mean is true? Maybe it’s just because is weekend

Posted by: rk | Feb 28 2026 22:36 utc | 333

From r1a1c1 on Larry Johnson’s site:-
 

“Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky has cheered the strikes on Iran, urging US President Donald Trump to take decisive action against the country and bring down its government.
 
*********************************
 
“If that aint the kiss of death nothing is, for some reason it reminded me of this, had to look it up…
 
It was an evening in November,As I very well remember,I was strolling down the street in drunken pride,But my knees were all a-flutter,And I landed in the gutterAnd a pig came up and lay down by my side.
 
Yes, I lay there in the gutterThinking thoughts I could not utter,When a colleen passing by did softly say‘You can tell a man who boozesBy the company he chooses’—And the pig got up and slowly walked away.
 

………………………
 
Sad times for erstwhile Trump supporters, when a sour joke like that one on LJ’s site rings all too true.  For those of us who closed our eyes to a few, er, blemishes in the very stable genius – “Biden’s worse, take what you can get!” was the mood  –  and confidently expected Trump to stride into the White House, put a stop to Gaza, call the troops back home and set about getting that murderous war in Ukraine ended.  Doing a bit of swamp draining as an encore.
 
Since then, plans for luxury condos built on the Gaza graves and a million more proxy casualties in Ukraine.   And sour jokes all that’s left of MAGA.    

Posted by: English Outsider | Feb 28 2026 22:59 utc | 334

Budanov just announced that Russia agreed to accept security guarantees for Ukr from US and a demilitarized zone.

Posted by: rk | Feb 28 2026 22:36 utc | 337
 
But, but… according to some hereabouts, everything that comes from Ukraine is lies, because they always lie, yet you seem to trust the output from Budanov…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 28 2026 23:11 utc | 335

They’re a strange lot, these trolls, they can’t even keep the story straight between themselves…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 28 2026 23:14 utc | 336

Witkoff announced the same “security guarantees for Ukraine” agreement last year. This is in exchange if Kyiv agrees to new elections and forever relinquishing claims to substantial territory … which so far has been a major sticking point.

Posted by: Tel | Feb 28 2026 23:25 utc | 337

I heard the excuses made the last time: There is no way that Russia will accept anything less than 100% control of the four oblasts it officially adopted as Russian territory.
 
This became: it will accept de jure recognition in exchange for freezing the line along the dniepr and getting the entirely of the Donbas.
 
Only for this to turn into: we are fine with de facto recognisition, but no security guarantees.
 
And now: we open our market, allow security guarantees, only want the rest of donetsk, we don’t want our money back, we have no problem with EU entry for Ukraine, no major limitation on UA troops, no sanction relief. We don’t even talk about denazification anymore and we definitely don’t talk about why all our allies either got assfucked (Syria), are getting assfucked currently (Iran) or are turning away from openly helping us (China, India, Armenia, etc.)
 
A nation which holds all the cards doesn’t behave like this. A nation which is assured of its own power doesn’t behave like this. A strong nation lays down demands and any concessions made are merely symbolic or mutual. The USSR belonged to this group, the US belongs to this group.
 
I see Russia to not belong to this group.
 
I have been Pro-Russian for four years now, since the very first day of the war. But come the fuck on.

Posted by: Satansuckmypussypapa | Feb 28 2026 23:45 utc | 338

Clearly, but for what?
Posted by: rk | Feb 28 2026 22:36 utc | 33
 
as per original post ” budanov is probably the only one capable of signing, sustaining and surviving a surrender (by any other name)”

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 1 2026 0:29 utc | 339

All that should be understood is the Ukrainian regime is not a credible source for information, whatever you are trying to prove. 
 
Posted by: Natalya Volkova | Feb 28 2026 20:10 utc | 324
 
 
this is what arguing with 41 looks like.
 
Also, 41 will assume mostly male demographic of non Russians will react most positively to female Russian name 4gent.

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 1 2026 1:26 utc | 340

well AFu causlties back to a lower 1.330 and some fresh marat
 
https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/brief-frontline-report-february-28th
 
from north to south
 
 

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 1 2026 1:33 utc | 341

It was inevitable from the day he invaded Ukraine. Putin’s running the country like it’s a super power instead of the waning middle power it actually is. He bit off way more than he could handle and maybe he’s finally coming to terms with it. The best thing he can do for the country is end this war and stop antagonizing the West, it’s not doing his people any good.

Posted by: Beneneb | Mar 1 2026 7:42 utc | 342

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 28 2026 22:11 utc | 334
 
You beat me to it. Funny how amateurish some of them are.

Posted by: Avtonom | Mar 1 2026 8:11 utc | 343

AFU defensive line between Gulyapole and Verkhnia Tersa has collapsed, RUAF has pushed a large wedge west of Gulyapole. Verkhnia Tersa, an AFU strong point is meanwhile caught in cauldron.
 
The AFU attack in the northern sector (Pokrovske) has grinded to a halt, RUAF is keeping them at bay while striking continuously with drones.
 
RUAF making more breakthroughs in the south part of Konstantinovka. AFU is also losing the eastern stronghold salient controlled by AFU near Chervone. That will create an unobstructed path to the very NE parts of Konstantinovka and potentially accelerate capture of the city.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPuKW8BXmcU

Posted by: unimperator | Mar 1 2026 9:57 utc | 344

I am wondering: Does the US-Isr-Zio war against Iran affect the SMO or the Ukraine situation in any way, at all? 

Posted by: Avtonom | Mar 1 2026 11:36 utc | 345

Mentioned in the new thread, the attack on Putin’s home during negotiations now looks more and more a bona fide decapitation strike…
 
add the systematic attempts against generals and scientists and a new world might be rearing its ugly head

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 1 2026 12:24 utc | 346

add the systematic attempts against generals and scientists and a new world might be rearing its ugly head
 
Posted by: Newbie | Mar 1 2026 12:24 utc | 350
 
ugly, or wonderful?
 
Imagine a world where the leaders are literally the first to doe in conflicts, instead of a bunch of poor men.

Posted by: UWDude | Mar 1 2026 12:28 utc | 347

ugly, or wonderful? Imagine a world where the leaders are literally the first to doe in conflicts, instead of a bunch of poor men.
Posted by: UWDude | Mar 1 2026 12:28 utc | 351
 
It might if it was from the people, by the people, top organized is scary

Posted by: Newbie | Mar 1 2026 12:46 utc | 348

Can Putin at least start a VERBAL war against Trump, instead of the pathetic dicksucking comments of the last 10 years?
I am not talking about puppet tramp Zelensky behaviour, but justified criticism.
Is Putin that much of a stupid idiot he can’t even attempt to dispel the myth from Trump that “the war wouldn’t have started if I were President” when in fact he is the President who made it inevitable by not putting Ukraine under any pressure for Minsk agreements,  military training and no effort to open the canal providing water to Crimea?
Trump says this all the time at every rally and the limpdicked President of Russia says nothing in public against these lies

Posted by: Winston | Mar 1 2026 12:51 utc | 349

Can somebody give me accurate information on the state of the electric grid in Belgorod Oblast ?
Ukraine is about 60% capacity as a whole, how many in Belgorod without electricity?

Posted by: Winston | Mar 1 2026 12:54 utc | 350

@ Winston | Mar 1 2026 12:54 utc | 354
 
How curious that you equate one mid-sized Russian city with the entirety of the Ukraine.
 
Smacks of CIPSO desperation.

Posted by: malenkov | Mar 1 2026 13:48 utc | 351

Posted by: Winston | Mar 1 2026 12:51 utc | 353
 
Impossible for us Westerners to assess Putin, his strengths and weaknesses.  Certainly Russia’s been pulled back from the ’90’s in his time as President – an extraordinary turnaround – and he’s fearsomely competent.  The only leaders I’ve heard of in the West who can operate at that level were a British PM you might not have heard of, Harold Wilson, and Bill Clinton.  Wilson had an extraordinary memory and could marshal facts like lightning and Clinton, when he put his mind to it, could do the same.  But both were pretty rubbish as leaders so Putin’s abilities in that line might not go for much either.  Don’t know.
 
We can’t know, anyway, because Russian politics are a closed book to most of us.  So too their  administrative and political system.  I can at least pretend to a “feel” for British politics when evaluating, say, Starmer or Johnson.  I can put them into some sort of context.  I expect you can with American politicians.  But we don’t have the background to do the same in Putin’s case.   All we’re doing when we say he’s a great leader, or when we say he’s incompetent, is projecting  our own prejudices onto a blank canvass.
 
What we can say with confidence is that Putin, or someone if it wasn’t him, played a blinder in Ukraine.  But to arrive at that assessment we do have to abandon the tunnel vision that afflicts most when looking at Russian strategy. 
 
We think in terms of “the plan” when we’re looking at that.  We expect one move to follow the previous one as if, sometime back in 2014 or before, some Russian sat down and planned the sequence of events that led to the present day.  But that’s not how real life works.  In real life there are always a multiplicity of plans and you can never be sure which is the one that’s going to be needed.  
 
So it’s not inconsistent to see in Russian policy from before 2014 a determined drive to get the Russian military up to speed, whilst at the same time going all out to ensure it’ll not need to be used.  Then, according to how things turn out, you’re prepared both ways.   Looking at the remarkable Russian military operation in the first few days of the SMO it’s clear that that operation wasn’t improvised on the spot.  They’d probably been mulling it over and tinkering with it for years.  But they’d also worked hard on getting some compromise agreement hammered out.  So they were ready whichever way the cat jumped.  If Putin had managed to get Minsk 2 over the line we’d now be saying that it was obvious that was “the plan” all along.  But he didn’t so we now say the invasion was “the plan” all along.
 
So a multiplicity of contingency plans, not just two, and those plans needing rejigging as the situation evolved.  That’s not quantum physics.  It’s how we operate in normal life when we undertake some project.  That’s how the Russians operate.  That’s how they’re operating in the example you’re instancing.
 
So in that case you’re mentioning they know Trump’s a blowhard.  They know it’s most unlikely he’ll come up with anything constructive to resolve the Ukrainian problem.  Unless they’re asleep – doubt it – they know very well that Trump’s authorising or going along with some most aggressive actions against them.   So on the one had they’ll carry on with business as usual until they’ve got the demilitarisation and denazification sorted out.  On the other hand, no harm in humouring him – throwing him a bone or two to keep him happy – on the admittedly remote chance he’ll come up with something useful.
 
Mix that with the good cop bad cop routine we’re seeing them engaging in at the moment and we might start to understand why the Russians are playing it as they are.
 
 Or we might not – I don’t think, at this late stage in the game, that the Russians are too bothered whether we in the West are reading them right or not.  Far as I can see, when it comes to serious diplomacy at our end, we’re putting on a clown show that scarcely merits serious attention.

Posted by: English Outsider | Mar 1 2026 14:30 utc | 352