Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 22, 2026
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-045

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

There is no “exchange rate” when Russia doesn’t have the economic problems and limitations of NATO.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 23 2026 4:08 utc | 101

And yes, the rest that you said about the “Ukrainian” counteroffensives is also valid. And extremely concerning. 
 
We don’t even see that many videos of busification. We do see some, but there is no evidence any large-scale mobilization is really ongoing in Ukraine. And then suddenly they launch these counterattacks.
 
And not only do they launch them, but they find thinly manned Russian lines that are then easily broken. 
 
Which indicates that Russian voluntary mobilization has not been going on well at all…

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 4:11 utc | 102

In Case You Didn’t Know…
 
https://x.com/anatoliisharii/status/2025560244869296308
 
“Some Ukrainian brigades at the front are staffed at 30 percent or less. Therefore, a serious counteroffensive is impossible. In case you didn’t know.”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 23 2026 4:25 utc | 103

“Some Ukrainian brigades at the front are staffed at 30 percent or less. Therefore, a serious counteroffensive is impossible. In case you didn’t know.”
 
Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 23 2026 4:25 utc | 103
 
Thanks for the reminder.  It’s sometimes hard to keep in mind everything that is important.

Posted by: Woke American | Feb 23 2026 4:31 utc | 104

Woke American @ 104: More…
 
Anatolii Sharii
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZ1rQ-9PgUg
 
“Oddities on the front in recent weeks…”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 23 2026 4:39 utc | 105

I thought that LD was a bot and That I was a subnormal, but this GM who promotes the propaganda against the facts is the best of the best in term of propaganda. And use the telegram to make the Russians bad.
 
In Russia, everyone is with Putin. In the hypothetical story that this gay is over all of the nazis gonna be very bad. Putin is a christian person whose purpose is evite a problem. All the people who think that the music deserve an Oreshnik, are not conscious that in the moment a Christian Putin go out  is the time the time when the Russian AFU gonna make, without tactical, a mess. 
 
Thank god , Putin is a Christian.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Posted by: ftprational | Feb 23 2026 6:00 utc | 107

Sources:
 
https://t.me/dva_majors/88628

#Summary for the morning of February 23, 2026▪️Belgorod was hit by another rocket attack overnight , causing serious damage to energy infrastructure and disruptions to power, water, and heat supplies to residents’ homes. Windows and roofs of apartment buildings and private homes, as well as equipment at a manufacturing plant, were damaged. The previous rocket attack occurred yesterday afternoon.▪️All day long, the enemy launched a convoy of UAVs in the direction of Moscow . The Ministry of Defense reported 320 [❗️] enemy aircraft-type drones. Air defense activity was reported overnight from Melitopol in the Zaporizhzhia region and Rostov Oblast . An air raid siren sounded in Sevastopol . Media outlets reported powerful explosions over Saratov and Engels in Tatarstan.

 
https://t.me/dva_majors/88629
 

152 Ukrainian fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were shot down overnight, the Russian Defense Ministry reports.
▫️65 UAVs – over the territory of the Belgorod region,▫️35 UAVs – over the territory of the Saratov region,▫️16 UAVs – over the territory of the Republic of Crimea,▫️8 UAVs – over the territory of the Voronezh region,▫️8 UAVs – over the territory of the Rostov region,▫️4 UAVs – over the territory of the Krasnodar region,▫️4 UAVs – over the waters of the Sea of ​​Azov,▫️3 UAVs – over the territory of the Volgograd region,▫️3 UAV – over the territory of the Republic of Tatarstan,▫️2 UAVs – over the territory of the Kursk region,▫️2 UAVs – over the territory of the Lipetsk region,▫️1 UAV – over the territory of the Tula region,▫️1 UAV – over the territory of the Tver region

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 6:04 utc | 108

Do you not understand that Putin is trying to make all those Ukrainians Russians ?
 
 
 

Posted by: ftprational | Feb 23 2026 6:06 utc | 109

https://scottritter.substack.com/p/the-flamingo-effect
Ukraine strikes at the heart of the Russian missile industry.
That is a very respectable achievement.

Posted by: guest from franconia | Feb 23 2026 6:15 utc | 110

In the Eyes of Truth Update 22.02.2026 Lights out for Zelensky. Its blackmail I tell you! Blackmail!

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSp9PbUHKmI

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 23 2026 6:22 utc | 111

@105 John Gilberts
 
I watched a couple of videos from him.  The presentations were disjointed.  The AI he uses to do the English narration is horrible.  Not clear if the confusion from the narration is due to the author or the translation or the AI narrative.
 
At any rate, let’s just say that he presents these days as not a good time to be Ukrainian.  This particular Ukrainian seems to be very anti-Zelensky.  He throws out a lot of statements that are not well connected with previous statements, and sometimes seem to contradict something he said just previously.
 
He consistently gets close to 1 million views.  This leads me to believe that he is just an MSM talking head acting like a low budget operation.  Well Ukrainian MSM.  Still, I subscribed to his channel and will watch for a bit.  Might learn something.  Or might not.
 
Final comment:  In one video he starts out making comments critical of Trump and especially of ICE.  Then, after “establishing” this as his position, he has a couple of statements that have the theme “but in this case, Trump is right, and so is ICE”.  Slick propaganda trying to act like a sincere amateur presenter?  I am amused by these videos if nothing else, so I’ll check out a few more episodes as they are released.

Posted by: Woke American | Feb 23 2026 6:29 utc | 112

Alexander Mercouris: ‘Coup Rumors in Ukraine’
 
https://www.youtube.com/@AlexMercouris/videos
 
“Zelensky coup fears; Kiev crisis restarts; Moscow blames UK for Alexeyev hit; Strikes Kiev; Blackout.”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 23 2026 6:39 utc | 113

Woke American@113:
 
Yes, the AI auto-dubbing is awkward. Youtube also carries his talks in the original Ukrainian, the audience it is obviously intended for, should you wish to try translating yourself. I don’t. Cheers.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 23 2026 6:45 utc | 114

Russia is at a crossroads.
In the short term, Russia needs to find a solution to the Flamingo threat to Votkinsk and other strategic defense industries located in the Ural regions that are now under threat of attack (a solid rocket motor production facility in Perm, for example.) Given the role played by Europe in designing, funding, and manufacturing the Flamingo, a response limited to striking targets inside Ukraine would achieve no fundamental change.
Quote from Scott Ritter Substack:Missiles would still be built, and these missiles would continue to be launched at strategic targets deep inside Russia.
If Europe is not deterred once and for all from delivering this kind of military assistance to Ukraine, then Russia will be at risk of dying a death by a thousand cuts.
But then there is the larger issue of what to do with Ukraine itself. Russia is currently engaged in a drawn out “peace” negotiation with Ukraine, overseen by the United States, which has now been exposed—thanks to the attack on Votkinsk—as little more than a cover for Ukraine to develop the military capacity to strike Russia’s strategic interior in an effort to pressure Russia into ending the conflict on terms less than those previously set forth by President Putin.
If the Russian-Ukrainian conflict ends on such terms, then Russia will have conceded the very thing it said was a red line back in December 2021—the deployment of NATO-affiliated intermediate-range missiles on the soil of Ukraine.
It will represent a strategic defeat for Russia in every sense of the term.—————————————————————————————-Here we see once again how misguided Vladimir Putin is.He continues to beg for negotiations.He wants Kushner (Trump) and Witkoff to “manage” the confiscated Russian state funds.He wants to do business with Trump / US in Russia, which could generate profits of up to $12 trillion for the US. That sounds like a sell-off of Russian resources.

Posted by: guest from franconia | Feb 23 2026 7:06 utc | 115

Posted by: ftprational | Feb 23 2026 6:00 utc | 108
 
#####
 
A bot that could make the posts that I do, simultaneously pulling from different sources and themes would be impressive.
 
Instead, I am just a guy who went to Montessori school as a kid and bounced around a lot in different situations and environments.
 
Never had a chance (or desire) to be part of the herd. Much of my life has been spent outside of the paddock.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 23 2026 7:09 utc | 116

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 0:52 utc | 79

And as usual, no links to sources. Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 0:46 utc | 75 Get fucked. Russian MoD posts the numbers of shot down drones and missiles several times a day. You can go to the Telegram page and check them: https://t.me/s/mod_russia Other Telegram channels have been watching the numbers too, and noticing with increasing, but helpless concern how they have been rising. But being the fucking incontinent imbecile that you are, two important facts will surely escape your attention, so let me spell them out for the retards: 1) Russian MoD switched to first reporting shot down “drones” (i.e. light cruise missiles) twice a day, then it moved to reporting several times a day. This is in purpose — if you say that 250 drones were shot down today, that sounds scary. But if you say that 90 were shot down from 9pm to 7am, then report another 3-4 chunks of 40 during the day, that has a much less dramatic effect 2) Russian MoD only reports on what was shot down. It is left to the regional governors to report on what was not. Very convenient. And also a perfect recipe for creating regional discontent with the center. Precisely what you want in an existential war, right?

russian MOD reports ( also ! ) a daily summary and a weekly summary ( the CISPO idiot simply leaves that out )–> reports downed guided aerial bombs, MLRS rockets , cruise missles and similar + aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles significant fluctuations — between over 2000 and under 1000 weekly if anything, the numbers are declining ( last time over 2000 was 15.08.2025 )

Posted by: ghiwen | Feb 23 2026 7:36 utc | 117

Theti mapping:
AFU attack on Haichur river has stalled, RUAF is now pushing back and taking back the lost villages as their regrouping toward the west is becoming finalized. The AFU attack south of Vovcha river also seems to be losing momentum, but it’s too early to tell yet.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBZBkzlP0XA

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 23 2026 7:47 utc | 118

A Ukranian analyst was on BBC last week quoting 280000 Russians dead and it was confirmed with names of the dead.
Posted by: anon | Feb 23 2026 3:45 utc | 97

Can you tell the difference between Ukranian and Russian names?
This is as pathetic as Oryx quitting the visual verification game as soon as Ukraine started using tanks that werent the same as Russian tanks.
Try harder next time, you dont know where you are.
 

Posted by: eps | Feb 23 2026 8:42 utc | 119

The west and Russia both take hits (the west economically+their mercenaries in Ukraine) and it is beyond me to estimate any comparison so I assume Russias calm attitude is based on a sound estimate.
They are not insane so they are likely to have thought it through. While beginning to attack Nato targets beyond those inside Ukraine (that Russia already attacks killing Nato military there) changes things so the western propaganda may be ready for taking one big risk with uncertain outcome.
Nobody who writes comments here seem to have made a better estimate as I see it, but since the EU is mad and Russia isnt, I wonder if there is enough sanity in the US/UK? If not there is Russia having made a sound estimate versus the west probably gambling and not having any clear idea.
I am certain that those who keep claiming the mistakes they think Russia has made dont really have any idea what would have happened if Russia hadnt acted like that. Thanks to the calm, sanctions began rising much later. Presently the talk about a shift to nuclear indicates that again calm may be the way to go. The west is nervous including the US for sure. They are likely to be very desperate. So the west may be the side prone to go nuclear. I think the US is too scared to use anything except the weapons stored or perceived to be stored  in the EU? With the hope that the retaliation will not go to the US territory. I am not sure what Russia has said about that.

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Feb 23 2026 8:55 utc | 120

Posted by: eps | Feb 23 2026 8:42 utc | 121
 
Oryx was reported to sometimes (=often) being mixing up AFU tanks and RUAF tanks. Obviously in the first 18 months of the conflict they were mostly using same tanks (T-55/T-64, T-72, T-80). Oryx also reported one tank hit or damaged sometimes 4 or even more times, as one tank was filmed from 4 or more angles and reported as 4 different tanks.
 
Oryx suddenly stopped reporting imminently after the failure of AFU 2023 counter-offensive started becoming obvious to everyone (except brain damaged western ‘journos’).

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 23 2026 9:33 utc | 121

Anyway, GM is known for its pollution everywhere.
 
I so wish b would cleanse the bar …

Posted by: Avtonom | Feb 23 2026 10:01 utc | 122

Scott Ritter:
 

The Ukrainians struck Votkinsk.
 
They hit a metallurgical fabrication workshop. Votkinsk produces critical elements Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrence force. The intelligence that enabled this attack came from the CIA and MI-6.
 
Russia’s future is in its own hands. The ongoing US-brokered negotiations are simply a subterfuge to enable Ukraine to do the dirty work for Russia’s true enemies.
 
Stop negotiating with Ukraine. Eliminate Bankova. And put Europe on notice that next NATO-assisted attack on strategic Russian infrastructure will be the last.
 
The US withdrew from the INF and New START treaties. The US is building up its strategic nuclear capabilities while Ukraine destroys Russia’s.
 
It’s time for Russia to implement the Karaganov Doctrine. And to understand with Witkoff-Dmitriev economic cooperation fantasy is just cover for a hybrid war being waged by the US that seeks to develop a fifth column inside Russia the purpose of which is to collapse Russia from within. Votkinsk was attacked. Russia had better wake up. Or it may not be here tomorrow.
 

https://x.com/RealScottRitter/status/2025590060775604283

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 23 2026 10:10 utc | 123

1.355 AFU casualties is high for current phase
 
https://tass.com/defense/2090421

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 23 2026 10:22 utc | 124

Posted by: Avtonom | Feb 23 2026 10:01 utc | 124

Is Scott Ritter “polluting” too?

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 10:22 utc | 125

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 23 2026 10:10 utc | 125 “The US is building up its strategic nuclear capabilities while Ukraine destroys Russia’s.”
Scott Ritter panicked at the news of the first 100B (or was it 80B?) support package for the Ukraine back in 2022. I no longer follow him because he is too impressionable.

Posted by: Jan Sobieski | Feb 23 2026 10:32 utc | 126

Posted by: Jan Sobieski | Feb 23 2026 10:32 utc | 128
 
I agree changing the large Ukraine strategy because of this hit might be a bit hyperbole.
Nevertheless, the problem is EU/UK/CIA don’t have any limits what they can do from behind the Ukrainian meat shield. The Votkinsk plant hit (if it is true, not some doctored satellite picture) is very sensitive.
 
I don’t think EU/UK/CIA have a lot of capacity to escalate, they are already trying to hit sensitive targets in Russia to the extent of their drone capacity. But the problem and most annoying thing is they are not paying any price for it. At least disable some of the British Rolls Royce, BAE or drone manufacturing plants. Or disable one of their nuclear subs when it’s back in the Scottish harbor. Etc.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 23 2026 10:42 utc | 127

Ukraine and World Affairs; Weekly Update 20th Feb 2026: Ukraine and World Affairs: Weekly Update

Posted by: ffairs | Feb 23 2026 10:52 utc | 128

I wonder about internal terrorism in 404 ; why is it ever in the most western-404 ? The “living heart” of banderism …
Is it more a local tradition than an ideological one ?
Is someone targeting the banderist specifically or is it intra-banderist feud at play there ?

Posted by: Savonarole | Feb 23 2026 11:58 utc | 129

Posted by: anon | Feb 23 2026 3:45 utc | 97
“A Ukrainian analyst was on BBC last week quoting 280000 Russians dead and it was confirmed with names of the dead.”
 
And what this Ukrainian analyst said about Ukraine losses? That they amount to 55 000 ?
 
 
 

Posted by: scc | Feb 23 2026 11:59 utc | 130

That they amount to 55 000 ?

Posted by: scc | Feb 23 2026 11:59 utc | 132
 
The part missed out is “per month”…

US Press: Due to demographic problems, Ukraine is becoming a country of widows and orphans.

In the West, it is increasingly noted that Ukraine is unlikely to ever be able to restore its demographics and return to the figures of at least 2022, let alone restore the population to the level it had in 1991, when the former Ukrainian SSR became an “independent” state.
 
According to CNN, Ukraine is currently facing one of the world’s most severe demographic crises—it is rapidly turning into a country of widows and orphans. In addition to the heavy losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front and the mass exodus of citizens abroad, the birth rate is plummeting, and more and more people are experiencing fertility issues or postponing the decision to have children. Even according to the American publication’s most optimistic estimates for Ukraine, Ukraine has lost approximately 10 million people since the beginning of the armed conflict.
 
In addition to the millions of refugees who are unlikely to ever return to Ukraine, the birth rate in the former Ukrainian SSR has already fallen to near zero. Ukrainian demographers note that in Kyiv-controlled territories, women are finding it increasingly difficult to conceive and carry a child to term. Among other factors affecting fertility, constant stress reduces the quality and quantity of women’s eggs, making them less able to conceive and successfully carry a child to term.
 
However, despite the very bleak outlook for Ukraine, Zelensky still strives to continue fighting Russia for the interests of his Western “allies” literally “to the last Ukrainian.”

https://en.topwar.ru/278374-pressa-ssha-iz-za-problem-s-demografiej-ukraina-stanovitsja-stranoj-vdov-i-sirot.html

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 12:11 utc | 131

unimperator @ 129
 

At least disable some of the British Rolls Royce, BAE or drone manufacturing plants. Or disable one of their nuclear subs when it’s back in the Scottish harbor. Etc.

 
Or, use Iran as your proxy and start destroying high value UK and USA assets, subs ships, ports, in the Gulf. Tit for tat, and wink and let them know it was actually you like the UK/USA likes to do. Let’s see if Russia and China finally step up to the plate of the World Series or if they just keep sitting on the side lines.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 23 2026 12:19 utc | 132

Question…the electricity that Hungary and Slovakia supplies is payed for by Zukraine? Or on the never never?

Posted by: Jo | Feb 23 2026 12:41 utc | 133

So the attempted killing of a Russian General by Nato didn’t result in a Nuclear war why would a Russian action against a Nato/British General trigger one?

Posted by: Englishman | Feb 23 2026 13:06 utc | 134

@psychohistorian | Feb 22 2026 22:48 utc | 53

Glenn Diesen was asked to speak at the UN and got snowed out 

I live in the general area. This year the amount of snow has been very little, and  especially the last couple of weeks. Colder than usual, but much less snow (I bought a new snow blower this year and hardly used it).

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 23 2026 13:17 utc | 135

Good God, could we stop this counter attack bullsh*t?  It’s tiresome.  It’s battle of the Bulge stuff and it ends the same way.
Any Ukrainian couterattack is a waste of lives and resources and tends to shorten its existence as a nation.  Yes, they can organize such an attack but they have no staying power. They lack men. They lack equipment. They lack money.  There can’t be any meaningful follow through, no different from the last days of Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan.  They can grab a bit of territory and generate a headline or two for a while.  Sadly, that’s probably the goal.
Yeah, where’s general Steiner when you need him?
 

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 23 2026 13:20 utc | 136

Good God, could we stop this counter attack bullsh*t?  It’s tiresome.  It’s battle of the Bulge stuff and it ends the same way.

 
Some of us are old enough to remember the same being said about Balakleya, Izyum, Kupyansk, Volchansk, etc. in September 2022. 
 
Here we are 3.5 years later and that territory has still not been recovered, and the war is nowhere close to being won. In fact winning the war is no longer even an official objective…

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 13:35 utc | 137

They lack men. They lack equipment. They lack money. Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 23 2026 13:20 utc | 138

 
They lack motivation. More than half are russian-speaking. Probably very willing to finally be governed by a decent State (instead of by the shithole of corruption that is Kiev, where men are sent to the meatgrinder while daughters are sent to the meatlicking whorehouses of the “Garden”).

Posted by: Asian Frog | Feb 23 2026 13:35 utc | 138

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 23 2026 13:20 utc | 138
 
I think the headlines are their main point.

Posted by: Avtonom | Feb 23 2026 13:39 utc | 139

https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/69220
 

Nearly 600 Ukrainian attack drones were shot down by air defense forces in the past 24 hours.The airstrikes continue today, with the Belgorod and Krasnodar regions on alert since this morning.

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 13:48 utc | 140

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 1:02 utc | 81
 
Thank you for a most interesting and instructive reply.  On the events of February 24th 2022 yes, the ROE set by Putin were restrictive indeed.  Chirkin sounds almost indignant about it.  “This isn’t how were we taught  to do war in my day!” was his response.  And the resultant spike in Russian casualties was marked.  With those restrictions on returning fire, and given a fast moving series of incursions, those heavy casualties were the inevitable consequence.  
 
But that initial Blitzkrieg style attack did the job.  It averted the risk of invasion of the Donbass.  Destroyed the Ukrainian army, or so it is claimed, as a coherent fighting force.  (you might have more information on that.)  Gave the Russians a strong negotiating position in the peace negotiations that were running concurrently.  Positioned the Russian/LDNR forces where they needed to be for the coming years.
 
Couple of point there you might want to comment on.
 
 1, If they were realists I doubt the Russians put much hope in those early peace negotiations.  We do have to accept, though this is a site run by an expert  military analyst and there are valuable comments here from those who follow the fighting closely, that the military side of the conflict was a sideshow. 
 
Military defeat, that is, defeat on the battlefield for Ukraine and therefore NATO, was inevitable just as soon as the opening missile salvo was loosed off.  The sanctions war was the main event and in those early days the Western politicians still believed that the sanctions war was there to be won.  Given that from their point of view victory over Russia was assured, why would the Western politicians concede a peace?  And the ultras had the whip hand in Ukraine itself so the Ukrainians didn’t take much persuading to keep fighting.
 
So we do have to set the military conflict in the context of that sanctions war.  They were a good try, those peace negotiations.  They also gave the Russians much needed Brownie points with the Global South.  But I doubt the Russian General Staff paid much heed to them.  The  General Staff would have known they were in for the long haul and that opening Blitzkrieg offensive placed them just right for it.
 
2.  Always ignored is the part the LDNR forces played.  The Western cheerleader analysts – good examples are Kofman, Lee, the ISW –  always talk of the “Russian army”.  They ignore the fact that that army was by no means homogenous.  This further disables their analysis, in as far as that analysis wasn’t just cheerleading anyway.  I don’t see how those early days can be assessed unless we take account of the fact that the various components of the Russian and Allied forces on the LoC had markedly different strengths  and weaknesses that had to be taken into account by those responsible for allocating them their roles. 
 
In this connection, though it’s not really the same point, those Western analysts treat this war as if it were some board game, in which the perfect move is always expected and any deviation from the ideal is disaster.  That’s not how real war works.  “Shit happens”, the soldiers who’ve been in real action say.  It happens  inevitably, frequently, and often when it matters.  When it does happen the Western cheerleader analysts seize on it  as proof of failed strategy and portent of coming victory.  And the Russian milbloggers happily follow suit and cry “We are doomed!”  at every opportunity.   Or they used to.  They’ve settled down a bit now.
 
So most of the Western analysis and Western press commentary I’ve come across is superficial.  Sensationalised, unrealistic.   PR constructed, sometimes invented, for the purpose of keeping the Western electorates behind the team.  A retreat for the purpose of drawing the enemy into pre-registered fire becomes a famous victory for the other side.  The exploits of the “Ghost of Kiev” serve to draw our attention away from the real action.   A local setback or error becomes proof of general strategic incompetence.  That’s why, as said earlier,  we do need a root and branch reassessment of those early days of the SMO, uncontaminated by the PR “analysis” that we’ve been served up with in the West.
 
Those two points out of the way, and your comments on them would be welcome, we also need to get to the central question.  Why did the Russians attack Ukraine in the first place?
 
First step in the recovery of old empire?  Putin the monster felt like a bit of imperialism?  Last ditch attempt to roll back NATO expansion?  Or forced move.
 
I argue forced move.  A forced move deliberately provoked by us.  Provoked for the purpose of unleashing the sanctions war that was explicitly designed to severely weaken or fragment the RF.  I set out that argument in the first few “Outsider” comments here:-
 
https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/squaring-an-impossible-circle-of-peace-and-insecurity-in-ukraine
 
Rubbish or sound reasoning?  
 
It’s the central question, whether that Russian offensive was “provoked” or “unprovoked”.  We can’t look at any aspect of this conflict without settling that first.

Posted by: English Outsider | Feb 23 2026 13:53 utc | 141

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 13:48 utc | 142
 
######
 
To what end? Is Russia going to collapse from drone strikes to Belgorod?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 23 2026 13:57 utc | 142

Russia will not be defeated by drones anymore than Iran/Yemen will be conquered by bombing campaigns.
 
The inability to put boots on the ground is a critical limitation.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 23 2026 13:59 utc | 143

Why was Boris Johnson and the UK defense minister wheeled out to tell how UK is going to put boots on the ground? Smells a lot like desperation and dangling the carrot in front of the Ukrainian donkey, but at this point I really doubt many Ukrainians are buying British BS anymore – they know Britain has no army and a poor one at best, which they crushed in Nato’s own wargame, not to mention they said British training sucks, over a year ago.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 23 2026 14:10 utc | 144

I think that Ukraine is constantly escalating because they know that The collective west would soon attack Russia,m also with nuclear weapons.
Clearly, Ukraine can withstand everything and is afraid of nothing.

Posted by: Simon | Feb 23 2026 14:10 utc | 145

Putin Vows to Bolster Russia’s Nuclear Triad
 
https://www.rt.com/russia/632923-putin-bolster-russia-nuclear-weapons/
 
“The strategic arsenal ensures ‘deterrence and global balance of power,’ the president has said. Putin made the remarks on Monday in a video address marking Defender of the Fatherland Day as he praised service members for their dedication to defending the national sovereignty, particularly amid the military operations against Kiev.
 
The Russian president pledged to strengthen the army and navy using combat experience from the Ukraine conflict, and boost combat readiness across all military branches with the help of Russia’s science and high-tech industries.
 
‘The development of the nuclear triad, which guarantees Russia’s security and enables us to effectively ensure strategic deterrence and balance of power in the world, remains our unconditional priority,’ he said.
 
Russia Will Respond if Estonia Hosts NATO Nukes – Kremlin
 
https://www.rt.com/russia/632908-russia-estonia-nato-weapons/
 
“Russia will aim its nuclear weapons at Estonia if NATO nukes are deployed there, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has said, after the Baltic nation’s foreign minister stated that Tallinn would not be opposed to hosting nuclear weapons…”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 23 2026 14:12 utc | 146

“Russia will aim its nuclear weapons at Estonia if NATO nukes are deployed there, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has said, after the Baltic nation’s foreign minister stated that Tallinn would not be opposed to hosting nuclear weapons…”
Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 23 2026 14:12 utc | 148
This is so weak statement form the Russia’s perspective…. With this, the West has won the war, Talin is so close to Russia’s big cities…. 
 

Posted by: Simon | Feb 23 2026 14:15 utc | 147

unimperator @129: “Or disable one of their nuclear subs when it’s back in the Scottish harbor. Etc.”
 
 
My recommendation is to sneak a Poseidon with max warhead up into Gare Loch where the Faslane sub coop is and have it just bury itself in the mud on the bottom of the loch and wait until the right moment. That right moment would be when there are three of sLimeystan’s nuke boomers in Faslane for gay R&R and Russia (with China’s help, if necessary) locates the fourth one out on patrol and destroys it. BOOM! Reduce global nuclear proliferation by one country all in one grand stroke.

Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 23 2026 14:19 utc | 148

Posted by: Simon | Feb 23 2026 14:10 utc | 147
 
#####
 
Ukraine doesn’t actually exist except as an abstraction and proxy for NATO.
 
The economy is in shambles. Its demographic future is extinction. It is bankrupt and indebted to the hilt.
 
It has lost much of its most valuable land. Valuable for resources and industrial infrastructure.
 
They may lose Odessa soon, but right now, Odessa serves the purpose of funneling Western arms into missile range.
 
For the umpteenth time, Ukraine is dead. We keep talking about it like it is not, but when it dashed itself on Surovikin’s line, that was the beginning of the end, an end they have delayed (with help from the Russians), but an end nonetheless.
 
Nothing tangible or substantive has changed in Ukraine’s favor since this time last year.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 23 2026 14:30 utc | 149

Posted by: Woke American | Feb 23 2026 4:06 utc | 101
#####
 
There are no rules (never were), and desperate people do desperate things.
 
Couple that with a sense of invincibility/superiority, and all sorts of dumb ideas get oxygen.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 23 2026 14:32 utc | 150

Putin Vows to Bolster Russia’s Nuclear Triad

Doesn’t matter if the other side knows you’re not going to use it.

“Russia will aim its nuclear weapons at Estonia if NATO nukes are deployed there, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has said, after the Baltic nation’s foreign minister stated that Tallinn would not be opposed to hosting nuclear weapons…”

 
Pathetically weak response.
Nobody who will put nuclear weapons in Estonia cares about Estonia, it’s a fully disposable proxy.
The only adequate answer here is to make sure that there are no nuclear weapons in Estonia and no Estonia either, by kinetically removing the weapons from Estonia and then Estonia itself from the map.

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 14:33 utc | 151

To what end? Is Russia going to collapse from drone strikes to Belgorod?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 23 2026 13:57 utc | 144
 

 
1) They go much further than Belgorod. Air raid alarms have been sounding in the whole space to the Urals
 
2) They are no longer “drone strikes”, but feature very heavy intermediate-range missiles too
 
3) Yes, Russia will collapse if this continues indefinitely.

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 14:33 utc | 152

1) They go much further than Belgorod. Air raid alarms have been sounding in the whole space to the Urals
 
Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 14:33 utc | 154
 
####
 
And?
 
Countries collapse internally, not by drone strikes.
 
All these foreign strikes do is reinforce morale and government support.
 
F^&*king for virginity.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 23 2026 14:40 utc | 153

Must watch.

💥WHAT is Zelensky’s Plan for UKRAINE?!HOW will the Special Military Operation END?!🪖Dmitry Orlov

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWljfy82gI8

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 23 2026 14:42 utc | 154

Ukraine’s only effective strategy or weapon is national suicide.  Of course, that defines ‘effective’ or ‘victory’ as for the EU or Neo Cons weakening Russia, emphatically not the survival, much less prosperity of the Ukrainian nation.
Let’s repeat Ukraine’s goal – which is not victory – it’s ‘to the last Ukrainian’ – which is explicit suicide.  This means the Zelensky regime is the worst government on earth because no other government has the extinction of its people as a deliberate goal.  Not even North Korea. 
This also means that Ukraine’s goal is consistent with the goals of Russia because demilitarization, denazification and neutrality all arise with the extinction of Ukraine.  Counterattacks help towards those goals as does the treason of Zelensky and his friends who steal through corruption from the army and people of Ukraine.

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 23 2026 14:47 utc | 155

Posted by: Englishman | Feb 23 2026 13:06 utc | 136
—————————————–
Russia is not Israel, nor the US. It is a civilized nation.

Posted by: scc | Feb 23 2026 14:48 utc | 156

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 14:33 utc | 154

1) They go much further than Belgorod. Air raid alarms have been sounding in the whole space to the Urals

Links?

2) They are no longer “drone strikes”, but feature very heavy intermediate-range missiles too

Links?

3) … if this continues indefinitely.

And you don’t see a flaw there?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 14:49 utc | 157

Couple of point there you might want to comment on.
1, If they were realists I doubt the Russians put much hope in those early peace negotiations. We do have to accept, though this is a site run by an expert military analyst and there are valuable comments here from those who follow the fighting closely, that the military side of the conflict was a sideshow.
Posted by: English Outsider | Feb 23 2026 13:53 utc | 143
 
Anyone who really believed in resolving this through negotiations is absolutely unfit to be in any position of power in Russia.
Anybody who understood anything about the situation knew that the moment the border was crossed, whether in 2014, when it should have been, but especially in 2022, when it was already too late, that the very act of invasion was a bifurcation point that was going to be resolved in one of only two ways — either the existence of Ukraine was going to end, together with the existence of a Ukrainian identity on that territory, of if that outcome was not secured, then Russia would eventually be destroyed through Ukraine.
There never were and still aren’t any other options.
The whole territory (i.e. Lvov, Lutsk, Rovno, Ternopol, Ivano-Frankovsk, etc. included) had to be, and still must be taken, then thoroughly de-Ukrainized. Because Ukraine and Nazism are so fundamentally and irreversibly fused into one inseparable whole that the only way to de-Nazify the place is to erase Ukrainian identity altogether. There is no other way. No matter what violations of human rights that entails. Meaning you line up the whole population, strip them naked, and everyone with Nazi tattoos is shot on the spot; ten you also thoroughly scan everybody’s social media and everyone glorifying Bandera is shot too; the remainder are given the option of being dumped over the Polish border or becoming Russian. And you have absolutely no qualms about doing this, nor do you care about what the rest of the world thinks about it. If anyone dares object, you show them the videos and pictures of what Banderites did during WWII, of which there are plenty (and Putin did show them once at the SPIEF; but that was the only time he did it) and the videos and pictures of what they did since 2014 till now. There is no other option.
Because whatever territory is left in the hands of Banderites was and is going to be used as a platform to launch constant strikes deep into Russia, because there is nothing else to Ukrainian identity than psychopathic pathological (self-)hatred of everything Russian, nor would the West let the opportunity to strike at Russia through a proxy go to waste.
As it is, Putin not only decided not to take all of Ukraine, but he retreated for no reason even from the modest buffer he had secured. And refused to mobilize. Thus ensuring that the war would then move onto official Russian territory. Which is exactly what happened.
Now why did Putin do that? There are three options:
1) Putin is an absolute imbecile and does not understand the above.
2) Putin knows what has to be done and wants to do it, but there are greater powers than him that control the country and make the decisions
3) Putin knows what has to be done but does not work in Russia’s interest even in his heart.
I don’t see other possibilities.
In all three scenarios Russia is doomed with such leadership and elites.

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 14:52 utc | 158

It’s the central question, whether that Russian offensive was “provoked” or “unprovoked”.  We can’t look at any aspect of this conflict without settling that first.
Posted by: English Outsider | Feb 23 2026 13:53 utc | 143
 
The historical record shows provocation for approximately 8-10 years before the Russians crossed the border.  Any honest  patron of the bar knows this IMO.

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Feb 23 2026 14:52 utc | 159

@ William Gruff | Feb 23 2026 14:19 utc | 150
 
I wouldn’t worry to much, the British Navy is perfectly capable of disabling its own fleet with shoddy maintenance and low-grade components.
 
Unofficially, on of the submarines has been renamed as HMS Superglue…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 14:55 utc | 160

My recommendation is to sneak a Poseidon with max warhead up into Gare Loch where the Faslane sub coop is and have it just bury itself in the mud on the bottom of the loch and wait until the right moment. That right moment would be when there are three of sLimeystan’s nuke boomers in Faslane for gay R&R and Russia (with China’s help, if necessary) locates the fourth one out on patrol and destroys it. BOOM! Reduce global nuclear proliferation by one country all in one grand stroke.
Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 23 2026 14:19 utc | 150

 
There is only one SSBN on patrol usually anyway. The three others are there and on the surface. Zircons fired from a Russian ship or sub will do the job. Then the question is tailing the SSBN on patrol, which I suspect is in fact what Poseidons truly are for. 
 
But the real big problem here is decision making. Russian elites have real estate, children, wives and mistresses in the UK. Which are still there. And they value those much more than Votkinsk. So the UK is free to do whatever it wants, making a safe bit it will not be touched. 

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 14:56 utc | 161

…   It’s the central question, whether that Russian offensive was “provoked” or “unprovoked”.  We can’t look at any aspect of this conflict without settling that first.
 
Posted by: English Outsider | Feb 23 2026 13:53 utc | 143

 
It seems to me we already settled that, EO.  At least on this forum.   At the time of the Ukranian attacks on their own people,  b was following the action as it happened.  And so were we.  There are still commenters here who can verify this.  The attacks by Ukrainian forces in the Donbass citizens were increasing to the point where soon they would be worse than unbearable.    They had already done the latter. 
 
As karlof1 has reminded us,  the necessary steps were taken in preparation for the return of the area to federation with Russia, as well as the preparation for a limited (SMO) operation to protect Novorussia, which operation could have achieved its goal very early on, were it not for the refusal of Ukrainian allies to allow it to happen. 
 
And none of the above needed to happen,  had not these events first developed in Ukraine itself.  In fact, I remember clearly how even western media was reporting on the rise of the Nazi component even before the initial conflict.  They also reported the difficulties Putin was pointing out between Russia and Ukraine as far as the transit of gas across Ukraine was being undermined by Ukraine itself, long before events at the Maidan had brought about a western orchestrated coup.  b has covered this in real time as it was happening.
 
We have known all of this for a long time, any of us,  even not on this forum,  who were paying attention to world affairs.  And I repeat,  even the western media was reporting these facts well before the initial coup took place.  Ukraine was not a smoothly functioning, honor based,  state for as long as I have been aware of the problems there, and I am just an ordinary citizen, if an oldie now.  In my memory, there have always been  negative aspects to their relationships with the mother country Russia that were reported on even back in more peaceful times.  I remember when it was surprising that financial aid was being accorded to them  from the international body regulating such things — that they did not qualify for such assistance, but had been given it nonethe less.  I apologize for my own inability to support this, but surely it is in the historical record.  And we here did follow the initial coup and the hostilities thereafter.

Posted by: juliania | Feb 23 2026 15:02 utc | 162

The attacks by Ukrainian forces in the Donbass citizens were increasing to the point where soon they would be worse than unbearable.
Posted by: juliania | Feb 23 2026 15:02 utc | 164
 

Oh, it was much worse than that. And it forced Putin’s hand. But not for the reasons most people would think about.
 
Оnce again it was all about protecting the existing Russian political system, not about protecting the Russian people. There is a very big difference.
 
The West had pumped the Ukrainian with weapons and hatred and had them ready to invade the LNR and DNR. The DNR and LNR were in turn about to begin evacuation towards Russia. That is when the SMO began, and it preempted the Ukro-NATO-Nazi attack.
 
Now what would have happened had there been no such preemption? The DNR and LRN would have been crushed, and four million people would have been either killed off (probably a few hundred thousands) or become refugees into Russia (the other several million). Which alone would have been a total catastrophe for Putin, because that would be extremely destabilizing internally, both because of having to take care of that many people, and because everybody would be calling for his head for having allowed this to happen, and rightfully so.
 
But that quite likely wasn’t the whole plan. I have not seen hard evidence for it in terms of leaked documented plans, but the claim has persisted and it is an absolutely logical thing to do anyway — the intention was to not just crush and massacre the Donbass but to continue into Rostov and possibly Voronezh too. With the Russian army totally unprepared, such an invasion could have gotten quite deep.
 
Now imagine how destabilizing that would have been for Putin.
 
So he launched the SMO, and maybe he thought that once that particular calamitous prospect was eliminated, the problem would somehow be solved and he could make another shitty Minsk-3 deal. Wrong. Because see my post above…

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 15:13 utc | 163

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Feb 23 2026 14:52 utc | 161
 
######
 
Very few contemporary commentators know who Givi or Motorola were.
 
The period in the Donbass post Maidan is a gap in time, and many believe this all started in ’22, ignoring Putin’s much earlier speech in Munich (2007?) about NATO and the attempts to form better security arrangements.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 23 2026 15:18 utc | 164

https://cepa.org/article/how-to-fix-ukraines-people-shortage/
From a credible source:  as of 2024, Ukraine has the world’s lowest birthrate.
So, the extinction of Ukraine is not some wartime hyperbole. It’s a real outcome, baring a miracle.  Russia can wait them out because it has a larger population and  – a poor – but higher birthrate.  Russia can achieve its aims by pushing Ukraine towards extinction but Ukraine apologists keep rambling on about territory or other traditional measures of war. The majority (as polled) of Ukr refugees don’t want to return and are likely to feel that refusal more intensely as Ukraine loses electricity and infrastructure, lasting for years to come (as with the construction time of transformers).
I have not the slightest doubt that fanatics in Ukraine will insist on fighting even after abject defeat – which will further push them towards national suicide because male refugees will be all the more opposed to returning to ‘busification’ as a de facto death sentence.

Posted by: Eighthman | Feb 23 2026 15:23 utc | 165

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 15:13 utc | 165
Now what would have happened had there been no such preemption? The DNR and LRN would have been crushed, and four million people would have been either killed off (probably a few hundred thousands) or become refugees into Russia (the other several million). Which alone would have been a total catastrophe for Putin, because that would be extremely destabilizing internally, both because of having to take care of that many people, and because everybody would be calling for his head for having allowed this to happen, and rightfully so.
————————-
So here you rant about VVP and Russian army for something that could have happened if the SMO had not been started? Do you believe Russian army wasn’t aware of anything?
 
 

Posted by: as | Feb 23 2026 15:36 utc | 166

Let’s test GM’s assumptions from 165
 
GM wrote regarding the 2022 Russian pre-emptive attack on Ukraine, “Now what would have happened had there been no such preemption? The DNR and LRN would have been crushed, and four million people would have been either killed off (probably a few hundred thousands) or become refugees into Russia (the other several million). Which alone would have been a total catastrophe for Putin, because that would be extremely destabilizing internally, both because of having to take care of that many people, and because everybody would be calling for his head for having allowed this to happen, and rightfully so.”
 
Let’s test the main assumption:  Four million ethnic Russians moving to Russia would destabilize Russia.  By “destabilize” GM means to weaken the government of Russia to the point it either became too weak to defend itself or the entire country descends into anarchy.
 
If tens of millions of Africans and Asians “refugees” moved to Germany, would it destabilize Germany?
If tens of millions of Africans and Asians “refugees” moved to France, would it destabilize France?
If tens of millions of Africans and Asians “refugees” moved to the UK, would it destabilize the UK?
Now do the same anaylsis for Ireland, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, and Italy.
Now explain why four million Russians moving to Russia is worse for Russia than tens of millions of Africans and Asians moving to Germany, France, the UK, etc., is not a destabilizing event.
 
GM wrote, “Having to take care of that many people [four million Russians moving to Russia], and because everybody would be calling for his [Putin’s} head for having allowed this to happen [four million Russians moving to Russia], and rightfully so.”
 
Are the French calling for Macron’s head, the Brits calling for Starmer’s head, etc.,  because tens of millions of Africans and Asians have moved to their countries?  Even if the French and Brits called for their ruler’s heads, would anyone anywhere give a flat flying fuck? 
 
GM has two assumptions.  His two assumptions rest on one major assumption: Russia is completely different from any other country in Europe.  It has less social stability than France, Germany, the UK, etc.  Its people are more divided and on the brink of revolt than the people of France, Germany, the UK, etc.  Is this assumption correct?  Based on what?
 
It’s this sloppy and ridiculous excuse for reasoning that makes commenters like GM so pathetic.

Posted by: Nobody Special | Feb 23 2026 15:47 utc | 167

Posted by: as | Feb 23 2026 15:36 utc | 168

 
You have to somehow explain why the SMO was started yet for four long years of war Putin has shown an absolutely astonishing total lack of concern for the lives and wellbeing of Russian people. 
 
It simply logically cannot be that the SMO was started in order to preserve the lives and wellbeing of Russian people given what happened after that.
 
I am providing a simple and very logical such explanation

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 15:50 utc | 168

Posted by: Nobody Special | Feb 23 2026 15:47 utc | 169

 
False analogies completely divorced from the historical, both recent and deeper, context of the situation in Ukraine and Russia.

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 15:52 utc | 169

Posted by: Nobody Special | Feb 23 2026 15:47 utc | 169
——————-
No, GM assumes that Russia was, is and will be a derelict state with no power, no competent army and no ressources.  Especially he believes he knows more than the SBU, MoD et al.

Posted by: as | Feb 23 2026 15:54 utc | 170

Sorry, I messed with the pseudo (as –> scc)

Posted by: scc | Feb 23 2026 15:55 utc | 171

In 2025, Ukraine received 61% of imported electricity from Hungary and Slovakia

In 2025, Ukraine received 42% and 19% of imported electricity from Hungary and Slovakia respectively.
 
The ExPro publication writes about this, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
 
According to the results of 2025, Ukraine imported 3.3 million MWh of electricity, which is 24% less than in 2024.
 
The report says that the structure of imports in 2025 looked like this: Hungary – 42%, Slovakia – 19%, Poland – 18%, Romania – 17%, and the rest – Moldova.
 
The largest import volumes in 2025 were in December – almost 640,000 MWh, and the average price of imported electricity at the end of the year reached almost EUR 200/MWh.
 
 
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened to stop emergency electricity supply on Monday, if Ukraine does not resume oil supplies to Slovakia.
 
On February 18, Hungary and Slovakia announced the possibility of cutting off electricity supplies to Ukraine amid a conflict over the transit of russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline.

https://ukranews.com/en/news/1136168-in-2025-ukraine-received-61-of-imported-electricity-from-hungary-and-slovakia
 
Notable that the imports are 24% less than 2024. Did Ukraine add 24% to its own capacity? Seems unlikely, I certainly don’t recall any announcements or press releases about this.
 
So we are left with the following contributory factors:

  • a decline in the electricity-consuming population
  • industrial process consumption has fallen
  • the grid is physically only capable of handling 24% less imported electricity

None of which bodes well for an economically productive future for Ukraine.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 16:05 utc | 172

@ Nobody Special | Feb 23 2026 15:47 utc | 169
 
Yes, it’s strange how 4 million ethnic Russian people moving back to their motherland could possibly be seen as politically destabilising. It‘s a feeble premise on which to base an entire argument.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 16:10 utc | 173

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 14:52 utc | 160
 
“Putin not only decided not to take all of Ukraine, but he retreated for no reason even from the modest buffer he had secured.”
 
GM – that was when NATO was wrong footed.  We had expected a rapid Russian victory followed by a gruelling occupation.  The weapons supplied to the Ukrainians were suitable for guerrilla warfare.  As Borrell remarked, the training we’d given was small unit training.  We had expected the Russians to get bogged down in an “Afghanistan” scenario – that term was used at the time.
 
Instead, as said,  the Russians sat more or less where they wanted to be and allowed the enemy to come to them to be disposed of.   Attrition war was the intention well before Surovikin and Progozhin spoke of that intention.  It was always the intention, failing a settlement.
 
With that and the loss of the sanctions war it was game over.  The hundreds of thousands of subsequent deaths – maybe a million or more – were a direct result of our politicians’ refusal to accept that.
 
The position’s a little similar right now.  The Russians have to stop the drones coming over from remnant Ukraine.  Also to stop the assassination and sabotage missions mounted out of remnant Ukraine.  But they don’t want to occupy that remnant.  Western Ukraine in particular is gut anti-Russian.  It’d be a nightmare of secret police work, informers and internecine conflict.  With the West running Gehlen style operations in again if they could.
 
Occupy remnant Ukraine and it’s a mess.  Don’t occupy and remnant Ukraine remains a running sore.  That’s why the Russians need an agreement that avoids both scenarios.  Trump could have helped with that.  But he dithers around so much he probably won’t.  He’s not an honest broker anyway and I doubt the Russians are fooled by his posing as such.
 
…………………….
 
Posted by: BlindSpot | Feb 22 2026 23:30 utc | 61
 
Apologies.  I looked over the offending comment and can see “- than  you and I” could cause offence.  Assure you, it wasn’t intended to.
 
 
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 1:40 utc | 89
 
Get well soon.  My sympathy to Mrs R-L.  With that song echoing round the house I’d find it difficult to get to sleep too.  Try Dvorak’s Moon Song instead?  More soporific.

Posted by: English Outsider | Feb 23 2026 16:10 utc | 174

“Prigozhin.”

Posted by: English Outsider | Feb 23 2026 16:18 utc | 175

@169 Nobody Special
‘GM wrote, “Having to take care of that many people [four million Russians moving to Russia], and because everybody would be calling for his [Putin’s} head for having allowed this to happen [four million Russians moving to Russia], and rightfully so.” ‘
It would be untenable for Putin to sit there and watch 4M ethnic Russians get killed and/or chased out of a neighboring country, and also watch Crimea be overrun by Banderites.   This would have left Russia with a tiny sliver on the Black Sea taht would be far too tempting for NATO not to attack.  Ukraine, as a proxy, was putting Putin in  a classic lose / lose. 
I posted a week or two ago that I believe the end game sought by the West is to poke at Russia until Russia has no choice but to use nuclear weapons. on Ukraine.  We are not there yet, but the trend is not promising. 

Posted by: schmoe | Feb 23 2026 16:18 utc | 176

@unimperator | Feb 23 2026 14:42 utc | 156
Orlow said Zelensky is a russian jew and hates Ukrainains. 
I am not disputing it I just like to illustrate Orlow’s very outgoing personality.

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Feb 23 2026 16:21 utc | 177

@ Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 16:05 utc | 174
 
Lemon, honey, and your favorite spirit. The lemon and honey are optional.

Posted by: malenkov | Feb 23 2026 16:22 utc | 178

re malenkov | Feb 23 2026 16:22 utc | 180
 
Oops, posted to wrong thread. But J. R.-L. will know what it’s about.

Posted by: malenkov | Feb 23 2026 16:24 utc | 179

Rule 14 guys, rule 14… 
Remember : it means they are “winning” :p

Posted by: Savonarole | Feb 23 2026 16:31 utc | 180

CNN finally admitted that Ukraine is a country of orphans and widows.
Posted by: Jason | Feb 22 2026 21:38 utc | 43
 
The “orphans” and their mothers sit comfy in Germany “wined and dined”.
( visiting home every couple of weeks )

Posted by: MAKK | Feb 23 2026 16:46 utc | 181

The only adequate answer here is to make sure that there are no nuclear weapons in Estonia and no Estonia either, by kinetically removing the weapons from Estonia and then Estonia itself from the map.
 
Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 14:33 utc | 153
 
Do you think they are after your precious and holy bodily fluids? I hope you aren’t an airforce General. Geesh your adequate isn’t even close. Its anti human. Imo anyways. I did like the account you made about refugees from ex ukranian oblast as additional reasoning for russia’s smo. 

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Feb 23 2026 16:57 utc | 182

In response to

The “orphans” and their mothers sit comfy in Germany “wined and dined”.( visiting home every couple of weeks )
Posted by: MAKK | Feb 23 2026 16:46 utc | 183

 
There are a couple of “orphans” with new cars in my neighborhood [Corvallis, Oregon] and they have the yard signs showing their “support” from afar.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 23 2026 17:00 utc | 183

Notable that the imports are 24% less than 2024. Did Ukraine add 24% to its own capacity? Seems unlikely, I certainly don’t recall any announcements or press releases about this. So we are left with the following contributory factors:

  • a decline in the electricity-consuming population
  • industrial process consumption has fallen
  • the grid is physically only capable of handling 24% less imported electricity

None of which bodes well for an economically productive future for Ukraine.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 16:05 utc | 174
 
I think that these types of statistics and facts are more important and relevant than many of the headline stories.  
Russia and China are working with many other nations to build up a new economic order that will allow nations to prosper without the US destroying them, like we did to Libya.  Or at least that is the idea.  The US pushed and pushed and pushed and finally got Russia to act militarily against Ukraine.  Now we are doing everything we can to use the Ukraine conflict to bleed Russia.  These were the exact words of the Blinken Administration and Lindsey Graham and also other leading US politicians.
 
The current US bleed Russia idea is to send daily drones and missiles into Russia from Ukraine.  The US also has a lot of military assets around Iran.  Israel is talking about taking over “Greater Israel” when the US attacks Iran.  We are attempting to control Venezuelan oil trade, and starve Cuba.  All combined, these are signs of desperation.  The US is in a bad place, and all the US can hope for is that all this military action will somehow turn out well for the US.
 
The electricity numbers for Ukraine that you have posted are the relevant pieces of reality.  These realities are why the US is acting so desperately.  Judging from Russian, Chinese, and Iranian actions, they are aware of these realities.  They are making an attempt to create a new world for after the US implodes.  Europe and Canada seem to see the writing on the wall, and APPARENTLY are taking actions to be a part of this new world.
 
Iran / Russia / China / other nations have their battle plans ready.  We will only know what they are (or possibly are not) once the US pulls the trigger.  I should say IF the US pulls the trigger, but my personal opinion is that we are past the point of no return. 

Posted by: Woke American | Feb 23 2026 17:00 utc | 184

I went looking and sure enough Slovakia has halted “emergency” energy going to Ukraine because Ukraine has stopped the flow of oil to them and Hungary through a line that has been damaged and repaired.
 
And the worm turns……..

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 23 2026 17:20 utc | 185

Occupy remnant Ukraine and it’s a mess. Don’t occupy and remnant Ukraine remains a running sore… Posted by: English Outsider | Feb 23 2026 16:10 utc | 176

 
The solution I see is for Russia to leave some nominally independant  enclave at the East, name it Free Ukraine and lob rockets out of it into the UK and EU if they persist in turning the West Ukraine into a sore against Russia.

Posted by: Rutte | Feb 23 2026 17:32 utc | 186

@ psychohistorian | Feb 23 2026 17:20 utc | 187
 
More proof that Fico, not Orbán, is the real deal.

Posted by: malenkov | Feb 23 2026 18:12 utc | 187

Gotta remember that Ukraine is going to be a failed state even if the SMO ends tomorrow.
 
Russia would much rather invest in Madgascar infrastructure than in Ukraine. Madagascar has a demographic future and is geographically important.
 
Western Ukrainians are generally irredeemable with their worship of all that is American and degenerate.
 
Let the failed state be the EU’s problem. France and Germany are wealthy industrial powers that can totally afford to carry it. 😂😂😂

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 23 2026 18:12 utc | 188

Western Ukrainians are generally irredeemable with their worship of all that is American and degenerate.
 
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 23 2026 18:12 utc | 190

 
More to the point is their worship of themselves.

Posted by: malenkov | Feb 23 2026 18:14 utc | 189

Yeah, so it’s even worse than what I thought. Ukraine/NATO have been launching more stuff into Russia this week than Russia has launched into Ukraine. 
Posted by GM Feb 23 2026 0:47 utc 76
 You said “Technically it is ~300 vs ~200 a day”
 So approximately 2100 for Russia and 1400 for Ukraine per week. The Ukrainians gave a week drone/missile total of 1,396 for Russia, which is under your estimate. But the Ukrainians also said there were 1,400 guided bombs dropped on Ukraine by Russia. I don’t believe that Ukraine drops any guided bombs on Russia so it seems it is better than you thought for that week when comparing “things that explode and destroy”.

Posted by: Cheney | Feb 23 2026 18:16 utc | 190

malenkov | Feb 23 2026 16:22 utc | 180
Lemon, honey, and your favorite spirit. The lemon and honey are optional.
 
At last, some good advice !
 

Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Feb 23 2026 18:36 utc | 191

Slovakia suspends emergency power supplies to Ukraine, says Fico.
 
The decision comes into effect today. Fico described it as the “first countermeasure” in response to the halt of Russian oil transit through the Druzhba pipeline.
 
He stated that Bratislava would not provide Ukraine with any assistance in stabilizing its energy system if the latter were to request support.
 
Fico also warned that Slovakia would take further measures, including reviewing its support for Ukraine’s EU accession, if the oil supplies were not restored:
 
“Slovakia has a right to oil supplies … we reserve the right to take further steps.”
 
https://t.me/neuesausrussland/29008

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Feb 23 2026 18:43 utc | 192

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 1:40 utc | 89
 
This one is perhaps more agreeable. Calm and nice for a cold.
 
Jah Lion’s Colombia Colly

Posted by: Avtonom | Feb 23 2026 18:46 utc | 193

So which eu state bribed Orbán to pull the plug on the 90bn?
perm any one from 10?

Posted by: Night Tripper | Feb 23 2026 19:03 utc | 194

Gathering momentum:

In Nikolaev there was an explosion, seven policemen were injured

On Monday evening in Nikolaev there was an explosion in the territory of the out of use gas station. As a result, seven patrol police officers who parked their cars there were injured.
 

This is reported by RegioNews with reference to the head of the National Police Ivan Vygovsky.
 
According to him, two injured law enforcement officers are in serious condition.
 
“The enemy is deliberately trying to kill Ukrainian policemen, who are defending people and the state every day. We regard these events as a targeted attack on the system of law and order and destabilization of the situation inside the country, ” Vygovsky said.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/nikolaevshchina/1771868112-u-mikolaevi-stavsya-vibuh-postrazhdali-semero-politseyskih (via translation add-on.)

President Zelensky reported that the explosion in Mykolaiv is being investigated as a possible terrorist attack.

https://news-pravda.com/world/2026/02/23/2092015.html

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 19:17 utc | 195

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 19:17 utc | 197
The “ATO” aged like milk …

Posted by: Hiro Masamune | Feb 23 2026 20:13 utc | 196

The “ATO” aged like milk …

Posted by: Hiro Masamune | Feb 23 2026 20:13 utc | 198
 
It seems so, news of another incident is breaking:

In Dnipro, an explosion occurred in the regional police department

A powerful explosion occurred on the left bank of the Dnieper River
 

This is reported by RegioNews with reference to local telegram channels.
 
Emergency services are being sent to the scene. What exactly exploded is still unknown. Previously without victims.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/dnepropetrovshchina/1771874954-u-dnipri-stavsya-vibuh-u-rayviddili-politsiyi (via translation add-on.)

The second terrorist attack in one evening.

https://news-pravda.com/world/2026/02/23/2092298.html

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 21:00 utc | 197

I posted a week or two ago that I believe the end game sought by the West is to poke at Russia until Russia has no choice but to use nuclear weapons. on Ukraine.  We are not there yet, but the trend is not promising. 
Posted by: schmoe | Feb 23 2026 16:18 utc | 178

 
That is correct, because then the West’s own hands are untied to use nukes to settles its scores elsewhere around the globe. 
 
So either they destroy Russia and gain or they gain in other way. And using nukes does run the risk of putting Russia in a situation that eventually still destroys it. But what option is there left?
 
This is what happens when you have leadership that is asleep at the wheel while your enemies are actively and constantly plotting against you — they create crisis after crisis for you until you are exhausted from dealing with them and collapse.
 
The solution is to switch to playing proactive strategic offense yourself. 

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 21:21 utc | 198

Comments from today’s Military Channel report.
 
The US sent drones from Ukraine into Russia.  Many were decoys meant to deplete Russian AA missiles.  Even if they landed somewhere – that was not the point of it.  They also provide intelligence for the US on the state of the Russian AA defenses.  A strong drone and missile force was sent to take out a gas industrial facility which Russia used to send gas to Europe through the Friendship Pipeline.  The explosion shown was huge.  The US is working hard to make sure that Europe has no ability to get energy from Russia.
 
It appears that the forces that were counter attacking Kupiansk and Lyman have been removed from those areas (static areas, with smallish Russian gains), and all sent to their one big counter offensive a bit further south.  The US seems to have one nice counter offensive force, which is moved around as needed, sometimes in smaller groups.  US intelligence does its analysis and figures out the best targets for this force.  Previously it sent counter offensive forces to Kupiansk and Lyman, and got modest results.  Russia sent enough forces to stalemate both counter-offensives, so these forces were retreated from those fronts, leaving behind decent defensive forces, and sent the regrouped and rebuilt counter offensive force south for the current counter offensive.  The US claims they took some town, forget the name, but when I found where it was on the map it was pretty deep into what is now considered Russian held territory.
 
The strategy the US is using makes sense, seems competent, and definitely provides the US with media victory after media victory.  The overall trend is still that Russia is taking Ukrainian territory faster than they are losing it.  Meanwhile, the US focuses its media on the parts of the line where they are winning.
 
The US seems to be going all in on Ukrainian rare earths, mineral deposits, and farmlands.  The US is also attempting to get partial control of the energy of the ZNPP, especially if Russians are the ones paying operating expenses.  The other big goal for the US is to maintain European dependence on the US for its very existence.  Cutting off energy resources to Europe that are not controlled by the US is a high priority goal.  Finally, Zelensky is more an employee of the US than a representative of Ukraine.  His statements are very way more consistent with US goals than Ukrainian ones.

Posted by: Woke American | Feb 23 2026 21:36 utc | 199

Posted by: Woke American | Feb 23 2026 21:36 utc | 201
 
Yes, from what I see there are two ‘fronts’, or two ‘wars’. 
 
One is the static AFU street fodder holding static positions on the front. The other war is the US or Nato equipped force, which are specially used in areas where they detect weaknesses, or to blunt an attack with a counter-attack.
 
I think this Nato’s offensive force was most recently used along the Haichur and Vovcha rivers. But that force is only there, not somewhere else.
 
Meanwhile the main RUAF effort seems to be actually around Konstantinovka and toward Slavyansk, where they are surprisingly making the most critical gains. Despite this, the AFU offensive along the Haichur river has been blunted, and RUAF seems to be resuming to take back those lost villages + moving to encircle Orekhov afterward.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 23 2026 21:45 utc | 200