@ Jeremy Rhymings-Lang, I noticed, in Karlof1’s brilliant presentation of Putin’s speech  today, this snippet:
 

In 2021, the Black Sea Shipyard in Nikolayev went out of business. Its first docks date back to Catherine the Great. Antonov, the famous manufacturer, has not made a single commercial aircraft since 2016, while Yuzhmash, a factory specialising in missile and space equipment, is nearly bankrupt. The Kremenchug Steel Plant is in a similar situation. This sad list goes on and on.

 
It is not entirely clear whether Putin talks about present or past though he uses present tense. Later in his speech, he mentions that Ukraine has everything it needs to go nuclear with equipment and technology from USSR times.
 
It seems like there are more places like Yuzhmash in Ukraine and thus, things to expect in the future.

Posted by: Avtonom | Feb 22 2026 14:24 utc | 3

Media Manipulation in the Ukraine War: Glenn Diesen at the UN Security Councilhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTB_0TkJRlE
 
Glenn Diesen’s flight to New York was cancelled with no replacement, so his address had to be made over the internet.

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 22 2026 14:29 utc | 5

Damage to Votkinsk:
 
https://t.me/kiber_boroshno/12582
 

As a result of the damage to the Votkinsk plant by FP-5 “Flamingo” missiles, a gap of approximate dimensions of 30 × 24 m was recorded in the roof of one of the workshops. The height of the damage is uneven: about 24 m on one side and 18 m on the other. The nature of the destruction and the configuration of the collapse indicate that the epicenter of the explosion was inside the building, as a result of which the internal areas were probably completely burned out.The blow fell on building No. 19 – the galvanic stamping shop. Within this production area, the processes of stamping and forming metal, manufacturing of missile body elements, as well as galvanic treatment of parts (application of protective and functional coatings, preparation of surfaces for further assembly) are carried out.The damage to such a shop can have a critical impact on the production cycle, since it is here that the basic design of the product bodies is formed and their technological preparation for the final stages of assembly is carried out.

 
As a reminder once again, this is where solid-fuel ICBMs, SLBMs, and Oreshniks are made. 
 
It’s been two days, no response.

Posted by: GM | Feb 22 2026 14:50 utc | 7

A bit more here on the IED explosions in Lvov:

In Lviv region, a suspect in a night terrorist attack was detained: all the details

A woman who may be involved in the explosions in Lviv was detained in one of the regional centers of the region.
 

This is reported by Suspilne Lviv with reference to the Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klimenko, reports RegioNews .
According to him, the suspect was detained on February 22 at about 10: 20.
 

“We have done everything possible and impossible to identify those who committed this terrorist act,” Klimenko said.
 

Head of the Lviv Regional Prosecutor’s Office Mykola Meret noted that the suspect was detained in one of the cities of the Lviv region.
 

“In one of the cities of the Lviv region, a person was detained who may be involved in the commission of a criminal offense, namely, is the direct executor of this crime,” he said.
 

Meret added that law enforcement officers are now working to identify other persons involved in the crime.
 

“We still have a lot of procedural actions ahead of us to reproduce both the time before the crime was committed, and the time when the crime was committed, and after the crime was committed,” Nikolai Meret emphasized.
 

Vodnachas Interior Minister at a briefing also said that they are considering the possibility of involvement in the crime of the Russian special services.
 
Recall that in Lviv on the night of February 22 , a terrorist attack occurred , as a result of which a 23-year-old patrol police officer was killed. It is known about 24 victims. The explosions occurred after the arrival of patrol police crews on a call about breaking into a store on Danylyshyn Street at about 00: 30.
 
Later it became known that the deceased officer was Victoria Shpilka. The girl is originally from Volhynia, and later moved to Kherson with her parents.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/lvovshchina/1771751698-na-lvivshchini-zatrimali-pidozryuvanu-u-nichnomu-terakti-vsi-podrobitsi (via translation add-on.)
 
This was clearly an organised plan, not just spontaneous reaction to oppressive TCC of police actions, and is a new twist in the deteriorating social cohesion within Ukraine. At this stage I don’t think Russia was directly involved, although Ukraine will certainly try to play up that aspect, more as another symptom of increasing opposition to Kiev authoritarianism. The junta, and by implication its Western sponsors, risk losing control of events.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 22 2026 15:14 utc | 9

@ GM | Feb 22 2026 14:50 utc | 7
 
Do you know what? I’m going to dangle a big, fat, juicy bait in front of you, and tell you that attack is insignificant, and you should focus on the emergence of home-grown resistance capable of causing serious damage to the political power structures within Ukraine. That is far more significant; there will be more incidents like the IED explosions as the resistance grows more confident and bolder in its choice of targets. Attacks inside Russia won’t stop this process from snow-balling.
 
Check your priorities.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 22 2026 15:26 utc | 11

1.300 AFU casualties, yesterday also near, so not a weak weekend
 
A lot of intercepted UAVs (heavy days lately)
 
Latest Marat
 
https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/brief-frontline-report-february-21st
 
 

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 22 2026 16:59 utc | 13

Six diesel locomotives struck in Ukraine over last days attack. 
 
https://x.com/Karmabash/status/2025611613823529463

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 22 2026 17:04 utc | 15

Looks like there are far less drone strikes videos coming out from the Russia side, especially Rubicon compilations. Does it have to do with Starlink being down?

Posted by: Primotalo | Feb 22 2026 17:10 utc | 17

German Civey poll
Should Germany supply Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine?
Strongly approve  38.8%
Strongly disappprove   34.7%
Seems linke with Friederich Merz, wie got what we deserve

Posted by: grunzt | Feb 22 2026 17:20 utc | 19

Just curious why Russia failed in 2022? There been alot debating, but i not sure which one to trust – some said Russia overextended, lack of manpower, too much gambling,…
Posted by: sonbinhd | Feb 22 2026 17:01 utc | 14

AFAIU:
Attack on Kiew was  intended to draw imminently set to advance UKR forces away from Donbass.
The stopped up “no fuel, haha” military caravane was parallel to the negotiations in Turkey.
(  A major misjudgement as to UKR intentions. The returning negotiator was murdered directly after arrival back home )
Lastly and again IMHO the “special op” was never intended to win fast.
It was intended to provide USA/NATO/TheWest with opportunity to show their true character to the global bystanders.  Putin is Judoka! Aid your opponent in loosing the match.

Posted by: MAKK | Feb 22 2026 17:40 utc | 21

 all the info about smo comes only from Ukr officials , which are interested in saying each night they down millions of drones and missiles. All attack maps come from Ukr official fantasy channels. 
Until effects are seen it’s just Ukr propaganda, at best numbers multiplied by 100.

Posted by: rk | Feb 22 2026 17:43 utc | 23

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 22 2026 16:59 utc | 13
 
Khairullin mentions an Azov unit (3rd Assault Brigade) deployed near Slavyansk.  Zaluzhnyi was earlier reputed to have kept the ultra units in reserve.  Presumably one of the Russian aims is to force these units into the fighting.  Might I ask, are you seeing evidence of the ultra units now being deployed regularly at the front?  
 
…………………….. 
 
“Just curious why Russia failed in 2022? There been alot debating, but i not sure which one to trust – some said Russia overextended, lack of manpower, too much gambling,…”
 
Posted by: sonbinhd | Feb 22 2026 17:01 utc | 14
 
I think you’d upset the Russian General Staff if you suggested they’d failed in ’22.  From their point of view what they were doing almost from the beginning was sitting around in the Donbass, good logistics and supportive population, waiting for the NATO forces and equipment to come to them to be destroyed.   
 
Still doing it, though now they’re bringing the enemy to battle rather than just waiting for the enemy to turn up to be disposed of.   This has been the pattern from the beginning apart from the first few days of Blitzkrieg.  That put paid to the first iteration of the proxy army and much of its original equipment and placed the Russians more or less where they wanted to be for the duration.
 
Now it’s just a matter of waiting for unconditional surrender.  That’s always been the inevitable outcome, or at least it has been since the failure of the Istanbul peace talks.  It’s unlikely they’ll get the demilitarisation and denazification they’re after without it. 
 
As Peter AU1 said a while back, we’re just watching disposal of enemy forces on an industrial scale.  Very ugly, very brutal, very repetitive for the Western spectator.  Unless, like me, you have respect and a certain affection for the proxies and consider the way we’ve used them to be, again borrowing “b’s” term, a crime.

Posted by: English Outsider | Feb 22 2026 18:25 utc | 25

@ English Outsider | Feb 22 2026 18:25 utc | 25 who wrote
”
Now it’s just a matter of waiting for unconditional surrender.  That’s always been the inevitable outcome, or at least it has been since the failure of the Istanbul peace talks.  It’s unlikely they’ll get the demilitarisation and denazification they’re after without it.
”
 
Thanks for your good words.
Who is that unconditional surrender coming from?
Ukraine is the likely victim but they exist as a proxy and I daresay there will not be unconditional surrender by Europe or totally MAD empire.
 
I continue to see humanity in a civilization war with lots of dominoes set to fall….what does the bully of empire look like going down in a MAD world?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 22 2026 19:07 utc | 27

Unless, like me, you have respect and a certain affection for the proxies and consider the way we’ve used them to be, again borrowing “b’s” term, a crime.
 
Posted by: English Outsider | Feb 22 2026 18:25 utc | 25
No criticism of the creation of proxies, but criticism of their use? Imitation of a gentleman with simulated integrity.
 
 
 

Posted by: BlindSpot | Feb 22 2026 19:19 utc | 29

Because the Russian invasion plan hinged on almost no resistance.
 
The FSB was supposed to do most of the work for the invasion to succeed, to use its network of spies to ensure the invasion went down without much resistance, cause chaos, issue conflicting orders, etc. Basically a repeat of Crimea 2014. We saw exactly what it was supposed to look like in Kherson Oblast, the one front where the Russian invasion plan largely went closer to the plan, initially, because the UA local govt there was filled with traitors who did their job according to the plan. But most of the spies that the FSB had recruited ended up not supporting the invasion, not doing their part, apparently having been spooked away from doing it when early morning tactical problems started popping up on social media.
 
And a lot of tactical problems started, because the Russian military weren’t ready for their own invasion and their plan was horrible unrealistic. To preserve OPSEC (which largely worked), nobody in the Russian military was told about the invasion until the last moment. The VKS got about two weeks to legitimately prep, the VDV got a week for their air assault, and the rest of the force structure got about 1-3 days. Previously, they were basically just camped out. Previous to the invasion orders, most of the forces were told that they would be doing a large scale exercise in a short time period but then that turned out to be the invasion. They got their orders, had a few days to get everything ready in terms of supplies, then got orders where to drive to, what routes to follow, what their timelines were, and where to stop. Then got told basically “Don’t worry about Ukrainian resistance, they will largely welcome you,” that sort of thing.
 
The Russians weren’t welcomed. The only reason the invasion didn’t go worse for the Russians was that the Ukrainians, thanks to Zelensky, were just as unprepared as the Russians were. It was touch and go, though. Many credible analysts who studied the invasion have said so, that if only a few decisions or meeting engagements went differently, the invasion would have done much better, though maybe its larger war aims probably wouldn’t have been met, as they required a total collapse of the UA govt and military.

Posted by: Duncan M | Feb 22 2026 19:33 utc | 31

With respect the initial phase of the SMO in 2022, I’ll go out on a limb a say that it was a strategic (political) win.
Having the Ukrainians sign a peace agreement, that as it seems satisfied the main R.F. demands as well as the Ukrainian’s, shifted the responsibility for the war to Boris Johnson and the Ukrainian governmet.
While the war goes on, this past agreemnt sits at the background. Once the war will be over, probably in favour of the R.F. , the Russians will use that agreement to absolve themselves of any wrong doing – “See, we had the agreement already; it was the West that wanted us to kill each other”.
So, the initial military actions that facilitated the agreement can only be considered a clear victory. Obviously, in order to cash in this initial victory, the R.F. needs more of these, but they do not seem short of them either.

Posted by: RandomLurker | Feb 22 2026 19:37 utc | 33

Posted by: Simon | Feb 22 2026 19:24 utc | 30
 
Russian bloggers have responded. They say Votkinsk is large complex.  that just one building was hit.  They also suggest it was (only) where Iskander-Ms and Topol-Ms are made.  1,500 km from the Urkaine border is a long way, they wonder about that… 
 
My own thoughts are: I once heard an economist say that history shows that if a business loses a factory building (say to a fire) that is way worse than losing the employees. And: why should Russia ‘respond’ with some press statement since war is not fought with press releases, and the curiousity of spectators especially means nothing. 

Posted by: JustSomeOldGuy | Feb 22 2026 19:50 utc | 35

@Surefket 2
 
Quote ”
No worries nothing will happen to UK as Pootin can’t risk nuclear war. He’ll spank the Ukie puppets.”
https://sputnikglobe.com/20260222/
 
Why ?
Putin’s hesitation has boldend pirate country england to directly attack Russia so many times-broke new bridge, sank big war ships ,gave missiles to attack Russia etc.all because Putin is acting stupidly.
Easiest would be to send unarmed missiles to London and warn England about the reach of Russia. Missile.
But Putin is afraid of a 3td rate country england?
The same coward english who can never fight alone but only watch the scenes from sides to see two slabs fighting each other.
The involvement of a British private military company in the organization of secret prisons where Ukrainian nationalists detained, tortured, and killed political prisoners became public thanks to the efforts of the Russian Foreign Ministry. However, the very existence of such prisons and the lawlessness within them has been repeatedly acknowledged even in the West. For example, in 2016-2018, the non-pro-Russian NGO Amnesty International reported on “unofficial” facilities where Kiev detained those undesirable to the regime in Kharkov, Izyum, and in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) territories under its control,

Posted by: Sam | Feb 22 2026 20:21 utc | 37

Who is that unconditional surrender coming from?
 
Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 22 2026 19:07 utc | 27
 

No doubt at least a few people will still be alive in Kyiv when the Russians take control … they will find whoever has a clean suit and looks well fed and that’s likely to be an official of some sort. He will sign whatever because he won’t be given a choice and no one cares exactly what that says because it’s only a formality anyhow.
 
And yes, pockets of resistance might hang on but I very much doubt they will do well … even with bits of NATO and EU support trickling in. Once the main organizational structure collapses and the population is depleted and the people are scared and exhausted … it’s unlikely much strong resistance will form.

Posted by: Tel | Feb 22 2026 21:15 utc | 39

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 22 2026 21:25 utc | 40
 
It was mentioned on Ruslan Belov’s channel, latest video.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 22 2026 21:29 utc | 41

You beaut CNN 
 
CNN finally admitted that Ukraine is a country of orphans and widows.

Posted by: Jason | Feb 22 2026 21:38 utc | 43

Any timetable and directions? Seems a bit on the far away side…
Posted by: Newbie | Feb 22 2026 21:39 utc | 44
 
It might be the longer term plan. I don’t see Zaporozhye assaulted from directly south. It needs to be encircled from east as well.
 
From Orekhov continuing north along the highway. At that point they might blow the Zaporozhye bridges, rendering it moot and just keep going north. They would still need to encircle it sufficiently to block the road coming down from Dnepropetrovsk, so maybe it will continue being a thorn in the side unless completely blocked.
 
There’s just more synergy combining both axis of advance Orekhov-Pavlograd and Pokrovsk-Pavlograd.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 22 2026 21:46 utc | 45

Why is Russia not systematically bombing Ukro substations one by one until they are destroyed?
As it is now, they inflict damage to many substations or transformers but as it is not a concentrated attack, the power stations are easily repaired by Ukrainians. 

Posted by: Simon | Feb 22 2026 22:24 utc | 47

In a lengthy and polemical essay for the foreign-policy journal Russia in Global Affairs, Karaganov argues that Europe’s political “elites” are pushing the continent toward a nuclear confrontation.  He says the War in Ukraine has “dragged on longer than necessary” because of a “lack of determination to employ active nuclear deterrence.”  He argues that nuclear weapons represent the “only mechanism capable of resolving” the “European problem,” a problem that he describes as, “an existential threat to our country.”  Furthermore, “Targets should include places where elites gather, including in nuclear states.  Governments must feel personal risk.”

Posted by: Simon | Feb 22 2026 22:31 utc | 49

Posted by: BlindSpot | Feb 22 2026 19:19 utc | 29
 
“No criticism of the creation of proxies …”
 
BlindSpot – should say, this isn’t some  wet behind the ears English site where it’s necessary to explain about Pravy Sektor groupings and all the rest of it  before one can explain how they were used.  We’re not in Guardian/Daily Mail territory here.  I’d be very surprised if most on “b’s” site didn’t have the background to this war.  Suspect some of the people here have a deal more background than you and I, from what I read from time to time.
 
In essence what we did in Ukraine is standard operating procedure for the Western powers as we pursue our various foreign policy objectives.  Take a country with some serious internal splits.  Support and promote some of the more extreme factions.  Use those factions to destabilise the country.  Cookies optional.
 
 I suppose Syria is the clearest example of the procedure but there are plenty of others.  What we did in Ukraine before and after 2014 was by no means unique.   It’s what we do.  In the Ukrainian case we didn’t do it to destroy the country itself, though that was the inevitable result.  We did it because the foreign policy objective in that case was to use Ukraine as an attack dog against Russia.
 
…………………………
 
And yes, barring the neo-Nazis, and there aren’t many of those, I do have a liking and often respect for the general run of Ukrainians.  They’ve a bit of go in them, my judgement, which we tend to lack in Western Europe these days.   It was, potentially, a great country and a great people.  If we’d left them alone it probably would have been, for all the splits and corruption they were plagued with.

Posted by: English Outsider | Feb 22 2026 22:42 utc | 51

@ karlof1 | Feb 22 2026 22:26 utc | 48 with the background to the Ukraine SMO..thx
 
Glenn Diesen was asked to speak at the UN and got snowed out but his speech and some follow up is on his Youtube site at link below.  He did a good job of laying out the history and good/evil contextualization madness.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTB_0TkJRlE

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 22 2026 22:48 utc | 53

psychohistorian | Feb 22 2026 22:48 utc | 53—
 
Thanks for the hat-tip! I haven’t visited his site yet today.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 22 2026 23:00 utc | 55

Each of us can start by communicating with our fellow citizens, especially the ones that are not in your immediate group. Talk about issues with others and we find we all really want the same. We all want a better life for our children. That should be the bottom line, not profit.
Posted by: Ross | Feb 22 2026 14:27 utc | 4
 
I agree and can imagine all that.  However, the question is now, how do we make that a reality?  

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Feb 22 2026 23:24 utc | 57

Just curious why Russia failed in 2022? There been alot debating, but i not sure which one to trust – some said Russia overextended, lack of manpower, too much gambling,…
Posted by: sonbinhd | Feb 22 2026 17:01 utc | 14

 
The following was written on the February 25 2022, the day after the war started (emphasis mine):
https://m-kalashnikov.livejournal.com/4207472.html
 

First. The air and missile “overture” had not yet ended when the Russian Ground Forces rushed into a ground operation. The enemy’s Air Force and Air Defense have not yet been completely suppressed, and command and control of its troops and television and radio broadcasting remains intact. The centers of state and military command and control in Kyiv have not been knocked out.During Operation Desert Storm against Iraq in January-February 1991, the Yankees and their allies spent a month engaging the enemy from the air, using Air Force forces and cruise missiles. And only then did they begin the ground rout of the Iraqis (4 days). During NATO’s air war against Yugoslavia, air and cruise missile raids lasted from March 24 to June 10, 1999: 2.5 months. In both cases, the target country’s television and radio broadcasts were disrupted.Why did the Russian leadership decide to rush into ground operations when the air offensive hadn’t really concluded? They could have at least spent a week targeting the targets, demoralizing and disorganizing the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They could have destroyed the capital’s headquarters and the tele-brainwashing system, not just the military infrastructure. No, they decided to do everything at once – and they’ve already miscalculated. They seemed to have targeted the Ukrainian Air Force airbase command centers, hit the targets, but didn’t disable the runways. They should have been destroying military targets more with missile, air, and artillery strikes! And here Zelensky is broadcasting freely on TV. The enemy was not demoralized.An obvious and very serious miscalculation, fraught with dire consequences.***Second. Having extremely limited forces for the operation in Ukraine (only 200,000), without committing the Russian National Guard (Internal Troops) to the battle or mobilizing reservists, Moscow initially had only enough forces for two operations on terra firma.– Encirclement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ siege force blocking the LPR and DPR, which had been routed from the air.A thrust from Crimea to the south of the Kherson region (to Northern Tavria) to provide water via the Crimean Canal to the peninsula, reaching the Dnieper and Kakhovka.Instead, the small ground forces were literally dispersed and smeared, rushing toward Kharkiv and Sumy, which they failed to take immediately. Chasing three birds with one stone? And there are all the signs of the Russian Armed Forces getting bogged down in the battle for these cities. But the destruction of civilian objects and the loss of large numbers of civilian lives must be avoided. Only one success was achieved – the advance from Crimea to Kherson and the Dnieper.The helicopter landing near Kyiv (Gostomel) – deep behind enemy lines – looks like a gamble. Why would it be necessary if we were stalled near Kharkiv and Sumy? A land attack on Kyiv is definitely not on the cards. And that was precisely what the landing at Gostomel was for. Why the hell were the troops sent behind enemy lines – to certain death? Under fire from the Ukrainian National Guard? The last thing we needed was our own Arnhem…Usually, if a paratrooper captures an airfield, planes (and previously, gliders) carrying soldiers and weapons land there. With strong air support. Like in Fornebu (Norway, April 1940). And what’s going on here?For some reason, without waiting for the Ukrainian ground force besieging the LDNR to collapse due to air strikes, the People’s Corps of both republics launched an offensive from deep within the LDNR against the triple line of defense. Don’t you feel sorry for the Russians of the Donbas Ridge? What’s the point? The besieging force still needs to be pounded from the skies, knocking out its headquarters, warehouses, artillery, and tanks, its command staff, and volunteer battalions of hardened Banderites. Turning the ATO forces into a demoralized, commandless mass.The Russian Armed Forces’ lack of hundreds of Orion attack drones, an alternative to the Bayraktars, is also having a significant impact. Unfortunately, a comparison of Moscow’s actions with the operations of Turkish-Azerbaijani forces in Karabakh in the fall of 2020 is not in our favor. The dispersion of limited forces is obvious, as is the lack of modern means of waging local wars (including attack drones).And the absence of a fully-fledged branch of the armed forces in Russia—Special Operations Forces—is also very noticeable. The very same forces that Colonel Kvachkov was never allowed to create, having been locked away. And right now, disrupting the enemy’s rear and recruiting local supporters would be extremely beneficial. Let’s recall how, in 1941, the newly created Separate Special Purpose Motorized Rifle Brigade (OMSBON) created groups for insertion into the enemy’s rear, which were then recruited by local partisans. And a “small war” was unfolding behind the front lines. The partisans, after all, are special forces too!In 1941, small airborne units operated behind German lines near Moscow, specifically as special forces sabotage and reconnaissance groups. Read Major Starchak’s memoirs, “From the Sky to Battle!” Was this experience put to use? After all, during Desert Storm in 1991, the Americans and British successfully used sabotage and reconnaissance groups to disrupt Iraqi troops. The same thing happened in 2003, also in Iraq. And in Libya in 2011. And during the 1999 war with Yugoslavia, Albanian separatist units successfully fulfilled the role of sabotage and reconnaissance groups behind Serbian lines. The Yankees provided them with air cover.***It seems to me that they simply decided to play some kind of “Storm for the poor.” They hoped to take the Ukrainian Armed Forces by storm, or, as they used to say in the old days, by raid. A daring raid. They say that after the very first air strikes, the enemy’s army will collapse like a house of cards, and the enemy will begin surrendering en masse and throwing down their weapons.Are they trying to save on cruise missiles and expensive precision-guided munitions? Or have they fired too many “calibers” in Syria?Iran is replacing cruise missiles with much cheaper attack UAVs and loitering drone bombs. And where are they in our case?We’ve been told a lot about the incredible power of domestic electronic warfare systems. But for now, the Ukrainian Armed Forces aren’t cut off from communications, and Bandera-controlled TV is successfully keeping the local population in its psyche. So why not suppress them, since the TV towers can’t be physically demolished?***And here’s the real question: what is the goal of the operation? Well, the Bandera-Maidan regime will be militarily defeated. And then what? What should the result be? An allied Ukraine plus Novorossiya? Or simply a new Ukraine? Or several states within that territory? How will Transnistria be unblocked, where over 180,000 Russian citizens live?If things get bogged down in Ukraine, how do you plan to get out of it?How will Russia emerge from the economic crisis and build a new industrial power?If there are no clear answers, there is no future.I would very much like to be wrong in my conclusions. Very…***The Yankees and the EU, by advising President Zelenskyy to take refuge in Lviv, were essentially saying: “We are not going to fight the Russians directly, risking a nuclear war over Ukraine. Even if Kyiv is captured!”But!The threat of crushing, crippling Western sanctions is growing: a blow to Russia’s fragile economic rear. Unlike the Armed Forces, the Kremlin has failed to prepare the economy for war. It is extremely open and vulnerable to “non-military” sanctions. Dependence on imports and dollar transactions, a highly dependent banking system, a failed industrialization program, the threat of rapidly burning through foreign exchange reserves in the fight against ruble devaluation, and the savage rise in prices in Russia—the list goes on and on. Everything that has been undone and missed since 2000. But if we simultaneously become bogged down in a military operation and experience economic chaos in the rear, the consequences could be dire. The disruption of dollar transactions is a very serious blow for the Russian Federation! Sanctions against Sberbank and VTB will be extremely painful for everyone.***Moscow began the operation without clearing out the “fifth column” in its rear. We’re not talking about small fry like Navalny, and they’ll get their hands on him. No, I’m talking about the very big shots who run Russia’s finances and macroeconomics. For some reason, they’re completely unafraid of the FSB or the Investigative Committee.But Russia has practically no “fifth column” of its own in Ukraine. No structures have yet been formed to work with the local population. The rudiments of a Russian underground that existed in 2014 have now been suppressed and destroyed. There’s no new, pro-Russian government in Ukraine yet. Yanukovych has emerged, but he’s literally making everyone in Ukraine sick. He’s odious to the point of being terrifying.Let me remind you of the experience of the German blitzes of 1940: they have strong supporters in France, Norway, and the Benelux countries. When the USSR was rapidly entering Bessarabia and the “Kress Wschodnie” of Poland in 1939-1940, it also had its own “fifth column” there.And now, in Ukraine… Hmmm…***I’m deciding for myself this way. I don’t participate in pacifist actions. I wouldn’t want to support Bandera’s ideology! But the current situation is very reminiscent of the start of the Russo-Japanese War in 1904. No, back then, the samurai were the first to attack our squadron in Port Arthur, using destroyers—anticipating the air attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941. In our case, Moscow launched a large-scale operation first, seemingly seizing the strategic initiative.But in another sense, the historical situation is similar. Either a country achieves a swift and decisive victory over the enemy, or unrest and disintegration set in within. In 1904-1905, Tsarist Russia squandered countless opportunities to quickly put an end to Japan and suffered the unrest of 1905-1907. The Russian leadership finds itself in a similar position today. It seems they’ve taken off their pants—and now they can either screw everyone or publicly shit their pants.If the worst-case scenario unfolds, Russia’s integrity will have to be desperately defended. This will be amid economic chaos and the capitulation of some of the “elite.” And amid a terrible global recession that will hit the raw materials-producing periphery of the developed world hard.

Posted by: GM | Feb 22 2026 23:26 utc | 59

English Outsider | 22. Feb. 2026, 22:42 UTC | 51
 
 
 
 
Thank you, no, I don’t think you need to mention that MOA is not a beginner’s site; after all, the comments speak for themselves.
 
 
 
 
Your previous statement requires no explanation, because it explains you. You accept and seek positive perception. You stand on the privileged side of injustice, without any achievement of your own. Your view of world events ties in with this.
 
An addiction that you treat like a status symbol rather than scientific analysis.
 
At the same time, you attach a value to your statements that makes communication difficult, because it is about defending status, not content.
 
You are welcome to continue to perceive both Ukraine and yourself selectively in order to satisfy ideals of humanism in your own eyes.
 
The alternative would be to satisfy those ideals in reality. 
 
Your factual contributions do not stir any memories in me. Your analytical skills seem modest to me, and your personal statement is a verbal attempt to conceal your own doubts, just as perfume conceals sweat.
 
 
 
 
But I am not sitting at your table for a reason. Although “we” seem to share some views, I can understand your feelings about ‘beginners’. Believe me!
 
That is why I am sparing you and myself further reactions that come to
nothing and cost me time.
 
 

Posted by: BlindSpot | Feb 22 2026 23:30 utc | 61

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Feb 22 2026 23:15 utc | 56
I’m a constant reader, very rare comentator.
BB’s comment absolutely  hits the spot with me.
Johnson’s  latest remarks on the need to place ‘non-combtant’ British and EU troops  on Ukraine soil to just underline his complicity in the continuimg attempt to turn the Ukraine operation into a forever war. After all the greedy, selfish disgrace he made for himself at home, he continues to be reported on the world stage as if he were worth listening to. Why do we listen to the words of a self seeking nincompoop in public media? Who are his masters? How can they be stopped?

Posted by: Old Badger | Feb 22 2026 23:37 utc | 63

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Feb 22 2026 23:15 utc | 56
Putin failed to prepare for the war strategically, i.e. over the previous eight years, and more generally over the previous two decades.
Then he also failed to prepare tactically and operationally.
But those are symptoms of a more general problem, which is the Perestroika.
There was no way for Russia to solve its Ukrainian problem that does not involve severance of all ties with the West and a proper mobilization for war, which cannot happen without a counter-Perestroika internally.
On top of that, this is a continuation of the Great Patriotic War, but with the US and the UK officially aligning back with the Nazis, just as they did in practice already in late 1944/early 1945, but could not acknowledge at the time because of the need to ideologically justify the victory in the war (though real plans were made in mid-1945 for a real war in which the US, the UK and all of Europe they occupied would attack the USSR). But if you associate the current war with the GPW, then you cannot avoid acknowledging that Stalin was the good guy and that the Perestroika was a catastrophic mistake that has to be reversed.
But the positions of the current Russians elite derive from the Perestroika and the defeat in the Cold War!
And that is Russia’s tragedy — in order for Russian elites to fight this war effectively and with real victory as the goal, they would have to destroy the very structure that put them in their current privileged positions. Structure that was created at the cost of already destroying the country once.
Why would they not do it again?
 

Posted by: GM | Feb 22 2026 23:54 utc | 65

Posted by: GM | Feb 22 2026 23:26 utc | 59
Posted by: GM | Feb 22 2026 23:28 utc | 60
Posted by: GM | Feb 22 2026 23:54 utc | 65
 
“Never, in the field of human history, have so many words owed so few paragraph breaks to so many readers”, or something like that.
 
Anyway, none of what you posted has explained how you think the outcome of the SMO is going to be changed. Maybe that is because you can’t, because it won’t, the outcome is already set in stone, it is inevitable. Ukraine is doomed, sadly, but it is their and NATO’s fault.
 
Your fear of NATO losing is palpable.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 0:16 utc | 67

 At this point numerically the long-range strike power is starting to even out.
Posted by: GM | Feb 22 2026 23:28 utc | 60
What is the current numbers for drones and missiles going into Ukraine and drones and missiles going into Russia?

Posted by: Cheney | Feb 23 2026 0:29 utc | 69

What is the current numbers for drones and missiles going into Ukraine and drones and missiles going into Russia?

Posted by: Cheney | Feb 23 2026 0:29 utc | 69
 
Don’t hold your hopes out for a direct answer from @ GM, just prevarication and waffle.
 
But to help, the figures quoted by Zelensky for Russian arrivals were posted earlier:

According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, during the week, the Russian Federation launched more than 1,300 attack UAVs , more than 1,400 KAB and 96 different types of missiles at Ukraine.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/ukraine/1771771413-rf-vdarila-po-zaliznichniy-infrastrukturi-u-chotiroh-oblastyah (via translation add-on.)

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 0:36 utc | 71

What is the current numbers for drones and missiles going into Ukraine and drones and missiles going into Russia?Posted by: Cheney | Feb 23 2026 0:29 utc | 69

 Technically it is ~300 vs ~200 a day
 
In reality Russia is not firing a single shot while 200 a day are going its way.
 
Because those drones and missiles are not made in Russia, these are at this point all NATO strikes just launched from Ukraine. And now they are targeting Russian infrastructure and weapons production. 
 
This is a one-way road to guaranteed total defeat unless Russia starts striking NATO directly.

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 0:40 utc | 73

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 0:37 utc | 72
Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 0:40 utc | 73
 
And as usual, no links to sources. 
 
Dude, you need to remember, this isn’t Simp’s place, where you could stomp all over everywhere and no-one really challenged you, you face a much tougher audience here.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 0:46 utc | 75

@ GM | Feb 23 2026 0:47 utc | 76
 
Links to sources, please.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 0:50 utc | 77

And as usual, no links to sources. 
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 0:46 utc | 75

 
Get fucked.
 
Russian MoD posts the numbers of shot down drones and missiles several times a day. You can go to the Telegram page and check them:
 
https://t.me/s/mod_russia
 
Other Telegram channels have been watching the numbers too, and noticing with increasing, but helpless concern how they have been rising. 
 
But being the fucking incontinent imbecile that you are, two important facts will surely escape your attention, so let me spell them out for the retards:
 
1) Russian MoD switched to first reporting shot down “drones” (i.e. light cruise missiles) twice a day, then it moved to reporting several times a day. This is in purpose — if you say that 250 drones were shot down today, that sounds scary. But if you say that 90 were shot down from 9pm to 7am, then report another 3-4 chunks of 40 during the day, that has a much less dramatic effect
 
2) Russian MoD only reports on what was shot down. It is left to the regional governors to report on what was not. Very convenient. 
 
And also a perfect recipe for creating regional discontent with the center. Precisely what you want in an existential war, right?

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 0:52 utc | 79

Late and I see I’m submitting too many comments.  Could I just remark that that entire early period of the post ’22 phase of the war needs a complete reassessment.  The Russian military operation in that early period is still regarded as some sort of makeshift failure.  In fact it was one of the most brilliant operations of modern times and set the scene correctly for the years of conflict that were to come. Posted by: English Outsider | Feb 23 2026 0:50 utc | 78

 
It does need a reassessment, and it was brilliant, but not in the way you think.
 
The reassessment that is needed is to get to the bottom of why Putin sabotaged the operation by explicitly forbidding the military from striking anything that really mattered and that would have won the war.
 
Given that severe handicap imposed on it, the military performed brilliantly indeed.
 
But that doesn’t change the fact of the gigantic overall strategic failure.
 
Which continues to this day. Victory is not even an objective now. 
 
https://m-kalashnikov.livejournal.com/4758164.html
 

Without unnecessary publicity and in the silence of the officialdom, the goals of the so-called SVO are changing. Which confirms my 2014 prediction: “Crimea is ours” set in motion a chain of events leading directly to an attempt at the Second (after Gorbachev) Perestroika. I will present my conclusions briefly and without emotion.
***
– The goals of the SVO declared in February 2022 have been consigned to the archives. What has disappeared?
1. There is no longer any talk of disarming Ukraine and its denazification. The Russian leadership agrees to Kiev’s 600,000-strong army and the preservation of pro-Bandera forces in power. Well, if Zelets is removed in the upcoming elections, a new pro-Banderite will come to power.
2. There’s no longer any talk from the Kremlin about us being one people. Although we truly are branches of a single Russian people (consisting of Great Russians, Little Russian Ukrainians, and Belarusians). Which, in general, pleases those who remember Brzezinski’s advice: under no circumstances should the reunification of Great Russians and Little Russians (and White Russians) be allowed. And the freezing of ordinary citizens in Odessa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kyiv (while not attacking the top brass of the Zelensky regime and the Central Powers of the Red Army) buries the idea of ​​a Russian world.
The slogan “We need all of Ukraine” is forgotten. The end of the SVO (war) has been reduced to the seizure of the remainder of the Donetsk Oblast. Which fundamentally changes nothing: Russia’s enormous human, economic, and geopolitical losses are not compensated for. And both sides (Russia and Ukraine) will be able to claim victory. However, Finnish President Stubb is quite frank about the outcome of the war: https://vk.com/roytv?w=wall711300862_46429I conclude: the Russian Federation’s supreme power has no hope of a military victory and is trying (like Gorbachev 40 years ago) to reach an agreement with America. It cannot change the course of the war (decapitating the enemy, launching an air offensive), nor break the deadlocked “Chicken by grain” stance and the senseless extermination of the common people in the cities of the former Ukrainian SSR—it must be reached through an agreement.
***
The same is evident in the clear rejection of the “holy war” against neocolonialism, of attempts to unite and lead the Global South in this struggle and break the hegemony of the dollar. Now (we know from Bloomberg) the proposals of Kirill Dmitriev (the Russian President’s special representative for the economy) in negotiations with Trump. As you recall, these include allowing American capital to develop Russia’s natural resources, helping the Yankees service imported airliners (since the government cannot produce its own), and also returning Russia to dollar settlements for exported raw materials. In other words, a rejection of the “crusade” for settlements in national currencies, for the creation of a common means of payment in BRICS. And these leaks from Bloomberg were confirmed by Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian president.
“MOSCOW, February 13, 2026 – RIA Novosti. No one has refused to use the dollar; the US has restricted a number of countries in this right,” said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian president.”As for the dollar, well, no one actually refused to use the dollar. It is the issuing country – that is, the United States of America – that has restricted a number of countries’ right to use the dollar – and these countries, naturally, are using alternative payments, alternative forms,” ​​he told reporters, answering a question on the matter.Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia did not refuse the dollar, but was denied its use…” – https://ria.ru/20260213/peskov-2074145154.html
***
Conclusion: the Russian elite has abandoned plans to create a Global South front. As well as the opportunity to build a Moscow-Tehran-Delhi geopolitical axis. (Trump practically managed to drive out Iran, and he also managed to drive out India, which needed access to the American market much more than cheap oil from Russia and the joint fight against neocolonialism.)
 
 
This is very reminiscent of Gorbachev’s policy with his concessions to the US in 1987-1991, with his abandonment of the USSR’s geopolitical position and his desire to receive Western economic aid amid the crisis in the Union. Only now, the anti-alcohol campaign, the costs of the war in Afghanistan, and the “black hole” of aid to Poland are being replaced by a protracted position in Ukraine and a general economic crisis. Now I see a clear correlation between the successful “Trump war” on our tankers and the reduction of Russia’s oil and gas revenues with the policy of “lowering the goals of the Central Military District” and increasing concessions to Washington.
 
 
For me, a second-year history student in 1985 and the son of a nomenklatura official in the CPSU Central Committee, the parallels between the events of forty years ago and today are obvious. Back then, the CPSU leadership had completely lost faith in the Red (communist) project, in the USSR’s ability to improve the economy, and in its own ability to achieve a breakthrough in labor productivity and scientific and technological advancement. Then the CPSU bigwigs decided to seek reconciliation with the West at the expense of the Soviet Union’s positions, hoping to receive Western technology and economic aid in return.
Today, I see something similar, but in much more difficult circumstances for us. The fact that the Russian Federation is preparing to block Telegram (even at the cost of disrupting communications at the front) suggests that:
– military failures are not as scary for the Russian elite as the prospect of the collapse of the country’s power system due to an acute systemic crisis and grassroots unrest;
– a Transition is clearly being prepared, with a change in the central figure of power, and the outgoing figure will bear full responsibility for the current situation;
– a decision has been made to end the campaign in Ukraine with far from triumphant results.
Thus, a new Perestroika lies ahead. With unpredictable consequences. The refusal to send troops to Donbass and Odessa in 2014 led to this outcome…
ORIGINAL MATERIALS
Maxim Kalashnikov
FROM THE SVO TO “NEW THINKING”…
What is happening now merely illustrates my long-standing thesis: the SVO could end in Gorbachevism 2. Or – at best – an attempt at a Second Perestroika. However, current events speak in favor of Gorbachevism 2.
– The official goals of the SVO are already being reduced (which I will write about separately). They are far from what they were in February 2022 – huge concessions to the United States are evident. As we’ve already seen from Geneva 1985, Reykjavik 1986, and Malta 1989.
While the new predators (the elven technofascists Til, Karp-palantir, Musk, Lucky-andurilets, and others) are rapidly creating weapons, technologies, and instruments of power for the new era, leaving the Russian Federation far behind, our government is endlessly preoccupied with history, history, and history. Thevery selection of the current delegation in Geneva is a complete mess! A picture in oils. On one hand, the odious “historian” and former PR man for MMM Medinsky. On the other, an open lobbyist for US interests, Kirill Dmitriev, whose personality was formed in the US from the age of 14. In college, then at two universities (Stanford and Harvard). And I have no illusions about WHY this is being done.

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 1:02 utc | 81

Posted by: Old Badger | Feb 22 2026 23:37 utc | 63
BB’s comment absolutely hits the spot with me.
Thank you for your support on this -my post @56.

Also in regard to the latest remarks from Boris in regard to Western “peace keepers” in Ukraine, after watching that Boris drivel on TV, some (retired?) UK military pongo stated something like- “Russia is weak, and the UK is a nuclear power with the US and Europe in support.”
Oh dear  where the hell do they dredge these drongos from?  I am reticent to speculate.

I agree with you on the UK complicity in Ukraine, and suspect it is all part of a well developed long term effort to destroy the RF.  But I think the RF (and PRC) have twigged to this which may explain the recent spate of bloviating from Western wing-nuts.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Feb 23 2026 1:09 utc | 83

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 0:16 utc | 67
Your fear of NATO losing is palpable.

Absolutely!  The AI chips in the GM entity are Shadow banned vintage, and are clearly over heating.
 
 
 

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Feb 23 2026 1:22 utc | 85

And just a tweak or two as an addendum: let’s just suppose the ructions within Ukraine spill over the border into Poland; there have been regular accounts of friction between native Poles and the Ukrainian diaspora already, with fights and disturbances breaking out.
 
If we should happen to see IEDs start exploding in Warsaw or Gdansk, where does Article #5 of the NATO treaty stand?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 1:30 utc | 87

@ Barrel Brown | Feb 23 2026 1:09 utc | 83
@ psychohistorian | Feb 23 2026 1:28 utc | 86
 
Heh, I reckon he has got a pension fund full of Ukrainian government bonds, and is hoping against hope to get out at somewhere near par value.
 
Anyway, I am retirung for the night now, Mrs. R-L didn’t appreciate me playing Gregory Isaacs Night Nurse at a loud volume
 
[cough, wheeze, sneeze] I hate having a cold.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 23 2026 1:40 utc | 89

https://scottritter.substack.com/p/the-flamingo-effect
 
 

Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 2:54 utc | 91

Posted by: Woke American | Feb 23 2026 3:27 utc | 91
 
#####
 
France, Canada, Poland, and the UK have been placing sheep-dipped troops into Ukraine for years now.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 23 2026 3:30 utc | 93

Posted by: Woke American | Feb 23 2026 3:35 utc | 93
 
#####
Bingo. There have been reports of Polish comms for years, also fights between Nazi and Polish troops getting into firefights with each other behind the LOC.
 
The Russians regularly kill British and French officers around Odessa. Pretty much every month now.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 23 2026 3:41 utc | 95

BBC interview with Zelensky today, he quotes 55000 dead ukrainians and the attitude is he will not let up or surrender. A Ukranian analyst was on BBC last week quoting 280000 Russians dead and it was confirmed with names of the dead.
 
One gets the feeling that Russia are in a quagmire and they are stuck. The western support finacially and militarily in ukraine will eventually subjugate Russia. That is the reality.
 
Seems the Russians don’t know what to do, noone is listening to them.

Posted by: anon | Feb 23 2026 3:45 utc | 97

That’s the wrong way of looking at the situation Ukraine is just a platform for the West to fire into Russia. A fully disposable and expendable one The exchange ratio that matters is how much stuff is flying ftom Russia into NATO (zero) versus how much NATO is launching from Ukraine into Russia (a lot and constantly increasing)
Posted by: GM | Feb 23 2026 3:43 utc | 95
 
I agree with all 3 paragraphs you wrote.  First paragraph:  The presentation of Military Summary Channel is only a partial truth.  To be fair, if Military Channel presented it in accordance with our narrative, Youtube would demonetize or possibly even ban it.
 
Second and third paragraphs – a good summary of what I wrote, though I expanded your narrative to include troops on the ground.
 
The Russian reaction (assuming our narrative is correct):  In the past, I think that Russia was ok with bleeding the US.  I do not think they are very ok with these drones and missiles.  I do not think they are ok with their tankers being pirated.  Russia has a habit of delaying their retaliations.  Their most recent retaliations are what is happening to the Ukrainian power grid.  I am expecting the next escalation to be something more retaliatory than that, and not necessarily restricted to Ukraine.

Posted by: Woke American | Feb 23 2026 4:00 utc | 99