Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 4, 2026
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-032

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

I am a witness to the impotence of NATO, do not believe in their guarantees – – ex-speaker of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

NATO is a bunch of impotents who do not fulfill their obligations, so you should not believe in their “security guarantees” for Ukraine.
 
This was stated by former speaker of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Vladislav Seleznev on the air of the video blog “Fabrika Novostei”, the correspondent of “PolitNavigator”reports. 
 
I take all these statements absolutely pragmatically . Perhaps, at the level of certain expert discussions, such information may be real, but whether it is realistic in terms of implementation in practice – I have absolutely reasonable doubts.
 
I have witnessed firsthand the utter impotence and inability of the North Atlantic Alliance to act pragmatically in order to fulfill its commitments. During the period of February-March, when the aggression of the Russian Federation began in the expanses of the now occupied Crimean Peninsula, Ukraine was part of the security agreement between the Armed Forces of Ukraine represented by the 1st Marine Company of the Feodosia Marine Battalion, and on the other hand-the Immediate Reaction Forces of the North Atlantic Alliance.
 
This agreement stipulated that in the event of a crisis situation in any country of the European continent, our Marines would have to perform tasks to stabilize the situation.
 
But this agreement was also retroactive – accordingly, the Immediate Response Forces were to become part of the crisis team that would have to resolve the crisis on the territory of Crimea.
 
Did I see at least one soldier in a NATO army uniform? No, not a single one ,” Seleznev said.

https://politnavigator.news/ya-svidetel-impotencii-nato-ne-verte-v-ikh-garantii-ehks-spiker-genshtaba-vsu.html (via translation add-on.)
 
NATO has a credibility problem.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 17:58 utc | 1

Fitch downgrades Ukrzaliznytsia’s rating for second time in two weeks

The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has downgraded Ukrzaliznytsia’s long-term default rating to RD (limited default) due to the cessation of coupon payments on Eurobonds.
 
This is stated in the agency’s statement, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
 
The ratings of Ukrzaliznytsia’s Eurobonds maturing in 2026 and 2028 have been downgraded from C to D (default).
 
It is noted that failure to pay interest or principal on the debt within the established period, including the grace period, is considered a default and is reflected in the RD or D ratings.
 
On January 22, the agency recorded a default on securities worth USD 703 million, and on January 27, on securities worth USD 352 million.
 
 
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in early January it became known that the Ukrzaliznytsia joint stock company decided to temporarily suspend coupon payments on Eurobonds issued before the full-scale invasion (in 2019 and 2021) from January 9 in order to maintain liquidity.

https://ukranews.com/en/news/1132431-fitch-downgrades-ukrzaliznytsia-s-rating-for-second-time-in-two-weeks
 
For those who may not be aware, Ukrzaliznytsia is the main national rail operator in Ukraine.
 
That €90 billion better hurry up…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 18:11 utc | 2

ISW narratives 
 
#1 – Trump is afraid and not a strong leader – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has recently stated that US-Ukrainian security guarantee agreements are ready for the parties to sign, and Kremlin officials are likely using narratives about a possible escalation leading to a nuclear war to push the United States to refuse to sign the security guarantees document out of fear.
 
#2 – Sanctions are working – India is one of the largest importers of Russian oil and continued purchasing Russian crude throughout the summer and fall of 2025 despite Western secondary tariffs against India.[42] Russian oil exports that make up a significant portion of Russia’s federal revenues have largely funded Russia’s war against Ukraine.
 
My $.02 is that India avoided embargo imports in 2025 because the embargo has as many holes as a colander.  Indians are clever an unscrupulous. Sanction evasion will continue. All India has done was open up new supply sources. 

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 4 2026 18:15 utc | 3

Trump. Jew things. Epstein, the man or his Files. (Anti-)Semitism. Zionism. Communism. “Everything and everyone is a Jew (and everything is their fault)”. MAGA. COVID. Trump, again.
 
 
Just like before, gonna just trigger all the thread-derailing buzzwords now so whatever derailment can come and go already, seemed to work well enough last thread. 

Posted by: Stark | Feb 4 2026 18:16 utc | 4

The only Certain Guarantee is the Idiocy of the Ukraine Political and Military Leadership.
1. Anyone who believes that Western European countries are going to send anything more than token weapons, accompanied by large crates of vacuous bullsheet, to save a bunch of yapping, Hatfield-McCoy tiny, near irrelevant countries in Eastern Europe, is off the scale on the Idiocy meter.
2.  Anyone who thinks that the Dual Citizen controlled DC blood-thirsty grifters is going to send anything more than mostly obsolete weapons, printed funds within strict limits, is a Compound Idiot.
     It should have been clear when Russia conceded East Germany, that the promises made would eventually be forced onto Europe and the U.S.
Welcome to the world of Real Politik. Russia is a tireless long distance runner. Trump can race from his big chair to the Big Mac counter.
  Oh to be a fly on the wall as Britain and Europe discuss how to draft their new Muslim and African cohorts into their new armies.  Who will they fight? Russia or their Overlords.

Posted by: kupkee | Feb 4 2026 18:16 utc | 5

Medvedev rebukes the UN Secretary-General over Crimea and Donbas (EADaily, January 30, 2026 — in Russian)

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev criticized UN Secretary-General António Guterres for his incompetence on the issue of self-determination for Crimea and Donbas.
 
Earlier, Guterres stated that, unlike Greenland, the principle of self-determination of peoples does not apply to Crimea and Donbas.
 
“Question for the Secretary-General: Do Donbas and Crimea, annexed to Ukraine in 1956, have the right to self-determination within the meaning of Article 1 of the UN Charter, like the people of Greenland? The Secretary-General’s answer: no, according to the Legal Affairs Directorate, the principle of territorial integrity of the state prevails. Curtain call,” Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel.
 
Then the Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council asked: “Who gave the Secretary-General and the Legal Affairs Directorate the right to interpret the UN Charter?”
 
Only the International Court of Justice is specifically granted this right by Article 96 of the UN Charter itself—and then only at the request of the General Assembly or the UN Security Council. UN member states themselves, as well as the General Assembly and Security Council, also have the right of limited interpretation, but only on matters within their competence. It is also important to note that the 1945 San Francisco Conference recognized that no UN body can provide a binding interpretation of the Charter for all member states,” Medvedev pointed out.

Posted by: S | Feb 4 2026 18:17 utc | 6

Alexander Mercouris: ‘Ukraine Gets Hammered’
 
https://www.youtube.com/@AlexMercouris/videos
 
“Rutte empty Kiev speech; Ukraine gets hammered; Iran drones track US fleet; Trump agrees talks.”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 4 2026 18:30 utc | 7

@ Stark | Feb 4 2026 18:16 utc | 4
 
One or two of them having been trying a new tactic in the last couple of threads, so you could add “Modi”, “India” and “BRICS” to the list…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 18:37 utc | 8

@ S | Feb 4 2026 18:17 utc | 6 with the Medvedev link and quotes…thanks
 
I am starting to think it would be good to come up with a name for the geopolitical soap opera we are watching…..I haven’t had a tv in over 30 years and just went searching for old/existing soap opera show names…gag!
 
Maybe call it….As The REAL World Turns

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 4 2026 18:40 utc | 9

That €90 billion better hurry up…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 18:11 utc | 2

Too late, it’s already in the washing machine.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Feb 4 2026 18:53 utc | 10

Yesterday the Ukrainian government issued a tranche of 3-year bonds, with a coupon of ~17%. No wonder they are desperate for more Western funds, because that 17% sure isn’t coming from the productivity of the Ukrainian economy.
 
https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/finance/bonds/

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 19:00 utc | 11

“In fact, M. Rutte’s statement translates into a generally understandable language as follows: ‘We will not allow peace in Ukraine and will force it to fight to the last Ukrainian'”.
 
https://tass.com/politics/2081879
 
speaking of which 1.390 AFU casualties (3rd near 1.400 day)
 
https://tass.com/politics/2081789
 
and there’s fresh , not to say plentiful , Marat. Not saying konstantinovska will soon be toast, but just ordered more popcorn…
 
https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/brief-frontline-report-february-4th
 
and that is that for today
 
 
 

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 4 2026 19:03 utc | 12

@ ChatNPC | Feb 4 2026 18:53 utc | 10
 
Does the €90 billion formally exist yet? Last I heard was the arguments that broke out about how much was to go directly to Ukraine, how much to the European MIC and how much to the US MIC hadn’t been resolved.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 19:05 utc | 13

For a Psuedo Soap Opera name:
Daze of Power Lies
As The Is Real Worm Churns

Posted by: Norsk Borscht | Feb 4 2026 19:06 utc | 14

it’s already in the washing machine.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Feb 4 2026 18:53 utc | 10
 
Of course, thinking on it further, there can’t be many washing machines that have survived the surges and voltage fluctuations from 50V to 350V…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 19:12 utc | 15

@ Norsk Borscht | Feb 4 2026 19:06 utc | 14 who is cooking with my soap opera meme…thanks….good ones…..free round of libations for the bar!

Posted by: psychohistorian | Feb 4 2026 19:12 utc | 16

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 19:00 utc | 11
 
It’s like some kind of sick joke. I’m not sure how they’re producing much of anything, other than maybe drones and ammunition. 

Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Feb 4 2026 19:17 utc | 17

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 19:05 utc | 13
 
Not more than half of it would go anywhere IIRC.
 
Also, I can’t stop thinking of all those $bn upon $bn from the EU that were supposed to go straight to empowering the power stations. Don’t remember exactly when and how much but I’m sure no Ukrainian official remembers anything about it either.

Posted by: Avtonom | Feb 4 2026 19:23 utc | 18

*** Of course, thinking on it further, there can’t be many washing machines that have survived the surges and voltage fluctuations from 50V to 350V…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 19:12 utc | 15
 
Living in Mariuple might be looking pretty good right now. 

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 4 2026 19:44 utc | 19

‘no UN body can provide a binding interpretation of the Charter for all member states,” Medvedev pointed out.’

Technically correct but misinformation without further structural details which Medvedev – unsurprisingly given he is representative of the immense power Russia holds – Medvedev fails to provide crucial information about how the system actually works.

Medvedev fails to point out that the UN Security Council – of which Russia is one of five permanent members along with the US, China, France and the UK – the UNSC can impose binding resolutions on all other member states and they have ultimate veto power over any and every security council decision.

In other words, Russia is one of five nation-states in the currrent global system that can impose its will on every other entity within the body via active binding resolutions and reactive-defensive ultimate veto power.

The binding resolutions include ‘military action’ (greedy warmaking) and sanctions which are economic acts of war. Oh, and ‘peacekeeping’ missions.

Ask the natives about how well the uninvited outsiders ‘keep the peace’ in their resource-rich land.

Again, one wonders at this point why Russia would remain a part of this ‘international’ body that imposes sanctions on it and its allies.

China is powerful enough to walk away right now and that has in fact been the case for years.

China and Russia could start and lead an ‘international’ body beginning right now if they had the guts and the initiative.

Evidently the UN arrangement suits them just fine.

Continuing in this astounding vein, the UN – of which China and Russia continue to remain enthusiastic members – the UN works hand-in-glove with the IMF! And I mean at the highest levels of coordination.

But the IMF is a greedy western enterprise, no?

Ask Kirill Dmitriev I suppose.

Or, better yet, ask Elvira Nabiullina.

Suffice to say, you won’t hear Putin quoting that old curmudgeon Peter Kropotkin on the evils of central banks.

Putin loves him some technocratic central bankers!

Posted by: Dan Kelly | Feb 4 2026 19:46 utc | 20

@ Dan Kelly | Feb 4 2026 19:46 utc | 20
 
Lots of words, but none spell U K R A I N E
 
Still, here’s how to do a proper derailment: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c5y2v32j0r3t

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 19:57 utc | 21

In her Weekly Briefing today, Maria Zakharova paid attention to the anniversary of the Kiev Trial held prior to Nuremburg that was also part of the ongoing war crime trials within the USSR since 1942. The report is filled with links to archives and archival film footage, all of which is in Russian of course. The full English translation of the Briefing won’t be available until Friday most likely, but here are the opening three paragraphs:
 

We remember the Nuremberg trials. Recently, just a few months ago, a lot of attention was paid to it. It went down in history as the judgment of mankind over Nazism.
 
 
But even before the International Tribunal began its work, for the first time in world practice, a systematic investigation and prosecution of Nazi criminals and their accomplices was already underway on liberated Soviet soil. Such processes in the USSR are also called “Soviet Nuremberg”.

 

 
The Soviet Union was the first country to deploy this work in the face of ongoing fighting. The Extraordinary State Commission for the Establishment and Investigation of the Crimes of the German Fascist Invaders and Their Accomplices, established in 1942, documented the atrocities in the liberated areas, investigators interrogated prisoners of war, established executors and chains of responsibility – from ordinary participants in punitive actions to those who gave orders. This is how the evidence base was formed, without which retribution would remain only a slogan.

 
As usual and preceding the above in the briefing is the Ukraine Report that seems to grow longer every week. The puzzle now is how to disconnect Ukraine’s nuclear power plants from the grid without directly causing harm to the plants.  When that’s done, Ukraine will be almost 100% de-energized. 

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 4 2026 20:01 utc | 22

*** My $.02 is that India avoided embargo imports in 2025 because the embargo has as many holes as a colander.  Indians are clever an unscrupulous. Sanction evasion will continue. All India has done was open up new supply sources. 
Posted by: frithguild | Feb 4 2026 18:15 utc | 3
 
I probably should have said India opened up an old supply source, as described by Tyler Durden:  
 
India has a history as a buyer of Venezuelan oil. Before sanctions and political risk narrowed Venezuela’s export options, India was a significant customer. In 2019, India imported around 300,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude on average, according to S&P Global. Those purchases fell sharply as U.S. sanctions tightened in 2020.
Trump on Jan. 2 said the United States and India have reached a trade agreement and will begin lowering tariffs on each other’s goods immediately. He also said India has agreed to stop buying Russian oil, a move he argued would help pressure Moscow and shorten the war in Ukraine.  
 
So what does “stop buying Russian oil” actually mean – only hydrocarbons with a certificate of origin from all subjects of the federation, or just some? What is the process for issuing a certificate of origin?  So many questions …

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 4 2026 20:20 utc | 23

The puzzle now is how to disconnect Ukraine’s nuclear power plants from the grid without directly causing harm to the plants.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 4 2026 20:01 utc | 22
 
I think we saw a hint of that during the major grid instability crisis on Saturday, which I was more or less following as it unfolded. Several reports said both the South Ukraine and Rivne NPP complexes stood down because, temporarily, there was no grid left to take their output. One unconfirmed report I’ve seen since then stated the NPPs aren’t running at full output anyway, precisely because of the potential need to throttle them back at short notice.
 
I’m sure Saturday’s events have degraded the grid anyway, as a lot of components such as transformers and rectifiers suffered out-of-tolerance excursions but won’t show external damage, continuing to somewhat function at a degraded capacity, but once restoration to full duty is attempted, the internal damage becomes terminal, leading to further instability in the grid, in turn leading to the NPPs pulling back their production.
 
I guess I’m trying to say it doesn’t necessarily need a ‘one and done’ disconnection, just make the grid so fragile that the output from the NPPs is minimised anyway.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 20:21 utc | 24

Colonelcassad
The Czech Republic today de facto joined the dissident coalition.Today, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic officially refused to participate in the European loan to Ukraine. Thus, the Babiš government’s actions have fully met expectations. If Orbán holds out in the spring, this will become a long-term problem for Brussels bureaucrats.

Posted by: MiniMO | Feb 4 2026 20:27 utc | 25

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 19:12 utc | 15At risk of looking like a raging hypocrit, I’m going to apologize if this is OT, and if it is, please ignore me.
 
But this made me think, since I keep morbidly wondering what life in Kiev is like right now, with all the power issues, can someone break down for me what effect all the havoc being wreaked on the power grid, either from the weather or the missile strikes or trying to get everything up and running again when your crews and working themselves to death and/or getting themselves fried (who was it that said a few weeks ago that a group of four or five Ukrainian electricians were electrocuted to death trying to work on a power line somewhere?), have on the electronics and appliances in homes? Mr. Rhymings-Lang’s comment made me wonder about that. I imagine at some point the little $10 surge protector you get off Amazon can only do so much. 

Posted by: Stark | Feb 4 2026 20:34 utc | 26

China and Russia could start and lead an ‘international’ body beginning right now if they had the guts and the initiative.
 
Posted by: Dan Kelly | Feb 4 2026 19:46 utc | 20
 
####
 
Russia and China could nuke the West into history.
 
They will come out the other side of this with the aspirations and global recognition of the UN as their foundation.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2026 20:36 utc | 27

Posted by: MiniMO | Feb 4 2026 20:27 utc | 25
######
 
Orban is a Zionist like Trump. Only a fool trusts the Hungarian regime.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2026 20:37 utc | 28

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 4 2026 20:20 utc | 23
 
#####
 
India stops buying Russian oil, ok.
 
Then that oil and those discounts can go to China.
 
Trump is playing whack-a-mole in a game he cannot control.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2026 20:40 utc | 29

Right now I’m watching Napolitano’s interview with Glenn Diesen and it’s very good
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lNGhmAZ_CI

Posted by: Avtonom | Feb 4 2026 20:42 utc | 30

Vlad has an intentional habit of speaking in long-winded and typically vague but high-sounding generalities occasionally interspersed with some somewhat useful information for the hoi polloi.

For example, bookended by central bank-speak and similar gobbledygook, Putin recently said this:

‘we must ensure the recovery of the domestic economy, improve the business climate, and boost investment activity with a focus on increasing labour productivity. Corresponding measures have been included in the Plan of Structural Changes in the Economy, which is designed until 2030.’

A 2030 plan. Uh oh.

Continuing, Putin then goes on to more specifically define the how and why of the immediately aformentioned ‘focus on increasing labour productivity’ when he says:

‘increasing labour productivity is a priority task amid labour shortages in certain sectors and industries.’

Here, it is necessary to more actively implement automated systems and industrial robots, digital platforms, and artificial intelligence solutions’

Uh oh again.

How this helps the entire ‘labor pool’ – most Russian citizens – is largley left unsaid though it sounds like more and more specialization and efficiency which always leaves large swathes behind or entirely out of the picture.

They can fill the military ranks I suppose. The wars don’t seem to ever end. They can get blown up as the robot they built gets blown up next to them.

All in the name of anti-imperialism!

Or fighting the good fight for Russian sovereignty.

At the same time Kirill Dimitriev and Elvira Nabiullina are doing their thing.

Strange world.

http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79095

Posted by: Dan Kelly | Feb 4 2026 20:45 utc | 31

*** trying to get everything up and running again ***
Posted by: Stark | Feb 4 2026 20:34 utc | 26
 
On a 1,000 yard stare basis, kind of what I was thinking in quipping above that Mariuple might look like a good place to be right now, a smart play for the RF might be to have plenty of those Soviet Era parts on had to rapidly repair electrical grids, so that satellite pictures at night comparing RF oblasts to western areas would look like North vs South Korea. Might be a handy fact for people voting in a plebiscite to consider. Hello Odessa?

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 4 2026 20:46 utc | 32

There are serious wobbles in the world “order”
The article below has come out of ASPI, Australias leading boot licking USA all the way, can we become the 54th state Plllllleeeeeeezzzzzeeee “think tank”
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/just-in-case-australia-needs-to-prepare-for-world-without-us-leadership
 
Not sure if the link works but you can do a search. The author is called Lee
 
The content is not new to any rational MoA people but the fact that it was published at all through ASPI is remarkable. Now of course just a “visiting fellow” who may never visit again, but still it is significant.
 

Posted by: watcher | Feb 4 2026 20:47 utc | 33

To Psycho Feb 4, 19:00 #16
Suggested serie: “Neighbourhood Bay Wash. Grime protection”.
*BYOWM ! (*Bring Your Own Washing Machine) 

Posted by: kpax | Feb 4 2026 20:49 utc | 34

I keep morbidly wondering what life in Kiev is like right now

Posted by: Stark | Feb 4 2026 20:34 utc | 26
 
The only people who can really answer that are the people in Kiev themselves, anything we post here is basically just guesswork and speculation. Having said that, there are lots of video clips around of water streaming down the walls of apartments, with the lights flickering on and off, plus protests in the streets; unfortunately (for me at least) they have Ukrainian/Russian voice commentary, without English translation, but the tone of the voices seem to express combinations of exasperation, anger, and resignation.
 
Sorry I can’t do better than that.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 20:50 utc | 35

Posted by: Dan Kelly | Feb 4 2026 20:45 utc | 31
 
ERRR! Danny boy, just now Russia has a labour shortage, so it is hardly news that automation is a good idea in the medium term. Long and to our western ears boring speeches are a ‘thing” in Russia and China. There are people in those countries who can still give such speeches, without an autocue and amazingly a large audience who still have the intellectual capacity and concentration span needed to listen and understand.
 
We in the west uses to 5 min maximum sound bites no longer have that capacity.  Sad for us

Posted by: watcher | Feb 4 2026 20:53 utc | 36

Starlink Satellite Data Terminals Cease Functioning in Ukraine Combat Zone for Both Sides of Conflict
 
Access has been blocked by decision of Elon Musk.

https://t.me/ukraine_watch/55353

 

Posted by: Norwegian | Feb 4 2026 20:53 utc | 37

can we become the 54th state Plllllleeeeeeezzzzzeeee
Posted by: watcher | Feb 4 2026 20:47 utc | 33
 
Only if we can select 10,000 of your most attractive females under 30. 

Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Feb 4 2026 20:53 utc | 38

*** Trump is playing whack-a-mole in a game he cannot control.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 4 2026 20:40 utc | 29
 
Maybe. I think nothing changes with India and “Russian oil” because India can say it is not buying Russian oil in the first instance. Product gets mixed and “poof” India resellers have an even bigger trading pool, none of which is “”Russian Oil”. The public will never get to understand such a dirty little secret. 

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 4 2026 20:56 utc | 39

‘Russia and China could nuke the West into history.’

You know that’s not true.

The nukes immediately fly the other way and no Russia and China don’t have anti-nuclear devices to defend against what would come their way in what is the definition of mutually-assured destruction.

‘They will come out the other side of this with the aspirations and global recognition of the UN as their foundation.’

We’ll see.

I mean, unless China and Russia decide to ‘nuke the west into history.’

Interestingly, Uruguay is in ‘the west’ and remains ‘the place to be’ in the unfortunate event your scenario comes to pass.

Posted by: Dan Kelly | Feb 4 2026 20:56 utc | 40

‘ERRR! Danny boy…’

I stopped there.

Posted by: Dan Kelly | Feb 4 2026 20:59 utc | 41

@ Dan Kelly | Feb 4 2026 20:45 utc | 31
 
To summarise: concern troll is concerned
 
Of course, none of us should be “concerned“ by the trajectory of the US economy, or Western economies in general, let alone the economy of Ukraine (did you pile into that juicy 17% bond issuance?) …
 
Shame the US Federal Reserve can’t plan as far ahead as 2030…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 21:04 utc | 42

Posted by: Dan Kelly | Feb 4 2026 20:56 utc | 40
 
Cannot say for China, but Russia has already made the decision to go doomsday if the nukes fly at Russia. As I understand it the nukes are out in the submarines and are already under orders to fire if the command centres go quiet etc. So if not all the west, most of the coastal areas will take a beating.
 
Russia has long had nuclear shelters in place and I know back in 2015 or so, held a huge nuclear war drill involving more than a million people. Part of Europe, eg Switzerland have compulsory nuclear shelters in large buildings.

Posted by: watcher | Feb 4 2026 21:05 utc | 43

Macron has blocked the 90 billion EUR EU loan to Ukraine.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 4 2026 21:11 utc | 44

RE:

“The puzzle now is how to disconnect Ukraine’s nuclear power plants from the grid without directly causing harm to the plants.”

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 4 2026 20:01 utc | 22
 
Not really a puzzle.
They have experience from Ukraine keeping the ZNPP powered down and offline, using actual tactics that inconvenience Russia, but doesn’t cause a disaster.
 
Russia could find many tactics to cause them to have to power down and take the units offline.
 
Obviously they want them up & running.
If Russia gets bored and wants to take the NPPs offline, they know how.  

Posted by: Trubind1 | Feb 4 2026 21:12 utc | 45

Meanwhile, per Martyanov’s blog, literally rivers of sh*t is now flooding on the streets of Kiev. The threat of epidemics is there.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 4 2026 21:12 utc | 46

I am sure that children from Ukraine were sent to Epstein’s island for the sexual pleasure of high-ranking pedophiles in Western society. The Ukrainian government takes minors away from their families under the pretext of rescue. Elena Zelenska’s foundation is also involved in this.
 
~ Vasiliy Prozorov (former ukrainian security service colonel)

Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Feb 4 2026 21:16 utc | 47

Putin can be very straightforwardly honest as well. Let’s break down his statement once again because it speaks volumes:

‘we must ensure the recovery of the domestic economy, improve the business climate, and boost investment activity with a focus on increasing labour productivity’

‘the recovery of the domestic economy’ is what I mean by straightforwardly honest. Here, Putin admits that the economy isn’t in good shape.

If it needs to be ‘recovered’ that means it isn’t presently in particularly good shape.

Putin has to say this because the Russian populace isn’t that stupid.

Yet.

But they do have malls and cell phones.

Continuing, ‘improve the business climate’ is back to vaguery and is something any garden-variety US politician would say.

Improve the ‘business climate’ for who exactly?

The business climate?

Perhaps here Putin has Russia’s carbon pricing on his mind.

Just kidding.

But they are doing that. Just like the west.

This is then immediately followed by

‘boost investment activity with a focus on increasing labour productivity’

‘Investment activity’ where exactly? In the interest of who?

Labor productivity will be increased via robots and AI as we’ve already been told and this will help increase ‘investment activity’ somewhere.

Perhaps Rosatom will see more money as Russia vies for inside control of what’s left of Iran’s nuclear thingies and stuff after the powerful stuff is shipped off to China I hear.

So much for Iranian sovereignty!

Posted by: Dan Kelly | Feb 4 2026 21:21 utc | 48

The threat of epidemics is there.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 4 2026 21:12 utc | 46
 
There’s also reports going around that one of the latest Ukrainian military cemeteries has been created on reclaimed swamp land (with loud hints of corruption, not surprisingly), and with the ongoing continuity of power supply problems the water table is rising again, as pumps are not working properly, leading to the prospect of human decomposition products not being environmentally contained.
 
Horribly grim.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 21:21 utc | 49

The Duran
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCXunzQqso0
 
“Performative diplomacy as Ukraine continues to lose big in the war…”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 4 2026 21:27 utc | 50

Hah! Just forced Google’s Artificial Stupidity to admit that it was lying in its initial responses concerning Russian vs Ukrainian democracy. I got it to promise to weigh material reality over mass media narrative in the future, though clearly that will only apply to its dealings with me. Let’s see if it can keep its word (lol! fat chance!)

Posted by: William Gruff | Feb 4 2026 21:35 utc | 51

Muh Russian economy…

Ukrainians owe 42 billion hryvnias for electricity

Debts on the energy market increased by more than 20%
 

This was stated by the Director of energy programs of the Razumkov Center, Vladimir Omelchenko.
 
According to him, the scale of debt has grown at a record pace.
 
“Last year alone, debts increased by more than 20%. They reached the level of about UAH 42 billion. And why? Because it is very simple – we have a lot of critical infrastructure facilities, although they do not belong to this category,” Omelchenko said.
 
As reported, in 2026 , Ukraine may increase electricity tariffs , given the high needs for the restoration of energy infrastructure. This is stated in the forecast of the National Bank.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/ukraine/1770222335-ukrayintsi-zaborguvali-za-elektroenergiyu-42-milyardiv-griven (via translation add-on.)
 
But, but, muh Russian economy

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 21:36 utc | 52

SALT treaty expires tomorrow. It’s expired in Russia where it’s 00.50 am
 

For the first time in over 50 years, Russia and the US no longer have any nuclear deterrence treaties, says Medvedev.▪️“That’s it. For the first time since 1972, Russia (the former USSR) and the US have no treaty limiting strategic nuclear forces. Strike I, SALT II, ​​START I, START II, ​​START III – all in the past,” said the Deputy Head of the Russian Security Council.▪️He added a meme from the series “Game of Thrones” to the post, captioned “Winter is coming.”▪️The New START Treaty expires on February 5. 

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 4 2026 21:47 utc | 53

 Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 21:36 utc | 52
Well electricity tariffs are already increasing in the UK, and water tariffs too – without a single Russian missile. 
 

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Feb 4 2026 21:49 utc | 54

Saint Jimmy | Feb 4 2026 21:16 utc | 47Vasiliy Prozorov (former ukrainian security service colonel)
imma gonna surmise he was in position to know (and look away) when Ukrainian children and teens were procured for the international human smuggling ops.
 
barflies might recall one of the reasons Putin became so hated was he stopped, full stopped, export of Russian children for “adoption”.
 
 

Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 4 2026 21:50 utc | 55

‘Of course, none of us should be “concerned“ by the trajectory of the US economy, or Western economies in general…’

You shouldn’t?

Oh, that’s sarcasm.

I am very concerned.

But US horrible and on its way down and perhaps permanently out doesn’t mean China-Russia good.

But I hope they are.

I wish the best for all the people everywhere.

Once the dollar crashes and the renminbi takes the lead role in ‘balancing’ international currency flows-exchanges which it will by default whether it wants to or not (if the current system remains) – once this happens will the US, with its devalued and perhaps if things get really bad completely worthless dollar – will the US still be allowed in the big club?

One wonders why the UK and France are there. I mean, they’re both kind of silly at this point, right? They’ve got a few nukes but their currencies don’t amount to much. I guess the deep states of both countries are still able to offer necessary services for the finance parasites.

Who knows.

Hey, you know how China afficianados talk about the Chinese practice of locality and decentralization within China itself?

How about if China were to lead the way internationally by letting the much smaller nation-states and non-state entitites effectively ‘lead the way’ just like many our indigenous ancestors and some present-day communities practice today?

True consensus.

No five permanent all-powerful members bullshit with all powers ultimately vested in a ‘security council’ controlled by these same five member and with ultimate power of creation and destruction.

Homey don’t play that.

So, I look to China to lead the way here and divest itself of all-powerful status in the interest of the little guy in the same manmner as the wise elder of the ‘tribe’ is respected because she doesn’t in fact lord herself over the other members by being a member of a select group with obviously much more power than the rest of us.

‘If I should tell another clan member what to do I would no longer be chief.’

I believe China may be able to do this if it gets in touch more with its taoist side and maybe does a little marxism on the economic front but not too much.

According to Michael Hudson they’re all predominantly neoliberal in China.

And ruthlessly so.

Posted by: Dan Kelly | Feb 4 2026 21:54 utc | 56

Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 4 2026 21:50 utc | 55
 
I’m also sure that he wasn’t the only one in a position to know. That “western” plunder included more than resources and money.

Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Feb 4 2026 21:57 utc | 57

Headlines from RT (not all barflies can access, because western “freedom”:
 
§ Peace won’t save Ukraine: What comes after the war may be worse
> History suggests the country’s physically and mentally decimated population is in for years of prolonged social strife
 
§ Lavrov weighs in on ‘Deep State’ narrative and Western political deceit
 
§ Russiagate 2.0: the west has rolled out a disgraced asset on Epstein EXPLAINER
 
§ NATO increasing military presence in the Arctic
 
§ Baltic states call for talks with Russia – media
 
§ New START treaty ending – Moscow
 
§ Zelensky thinks about nothing except his own ‘survival’ – Lavrov to RT
 
§ NATO prepares Ukraine for the politics of defeat ANALYSIS
 
§ Almost half of Ukrainians want government out after war ends – poll
 
§ Russia and Ukraine holding new Abu Dhabi talks: What you need to know EXPLAINER
 
§ Moscow warns West against ‘military intervention’ in Ukraine
 
§ Putin hails Russia-China ties during call with Xi
 
§ Power outages in Russian region after Ukrainian attack – governor
 
§ FIFA president added to Ukraine’s state-linked ‘kill list’
 
§ The German economic report: Talk is cheap, unlike everything else
 
§ Kiev’s European backers preparing for talks with Putin – Macron
 
§ Epstein and Rothschilds sought to cash in on Ukraine’s Maidan coup (VIDEO)
 
§ West wants to ‘control Libya’ – Gaddafi’s son (ARCHIVE VIDEO)
§ Gaddafi’s son assassinated
 
§ Medvedev responds to ‘disappointed liberals’
 
>> Taking requests ^ if anyone wants some extracts from above ^

Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 4 2026 22:09 utc | 58

Oh, that’s sarcasm.

Posted by: Dan Kelly | Feb 4 2026 21:54 utc | 56
 
Hmm… the whiff of LLM surrounding your posts gets stronger…
 
Just like those other LLM idiots @YT and @Remote Page, your posts do not directly address the topic in question, they rather meander off in seemingly random directions.
 
Just to help you out, here is the spelling once again: U K R A I N E
 
But, but, muh Russian economy…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 22:13 utc | 59

Good evening,
Ukraine’s losses amount to 55,000 dead. However, Ukraine considers a large number of people missing, says Zelensky.
A year ago, Zelenskyy announced the deaths of 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers. According to his logic, only 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died since then, or 750 per month.
 
I don’t understand how he gets such numbers

Posted by: Sany Dnepropetrovsk | Feb 4 2026 22:26 utc | 60

‘Russia has long had nuclear shelters in place and I know back in 2015 or so, held a huge nuclear war drill involving more than a million people. Part of Europe, eg Switzerland have compulsory nuclear shelters in large buildings.’

What a way to live.

What a way to go.

https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=DS1M8QCFbHA

[ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DS1M8QCFbHA ]

https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=TBan2JkWbhs

[ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBan2JkWbhs ]

Posted by: Dan Kelly | Feb 4 2026 22:27 utc | 61

‘the whiff of LLM surrounding your posts gets stronger’

I know right?

I was thinking that in order to put an immediate end to the U K R A I N E war as you so elegantly put it…I was thinking that Vladimir Putin should call an immediate press conference and announce to the world that the US never landed on the moon.

And other such things.

I mean, it’s so easy, a second-grader would understand:

https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=aAm5KTWvUTk

[ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAm5KTWvUTk ]

https://bollyn.com/

Posted by: Dan Kelly | Feb 4 2026 22:36 utc | 62

Has anybody asked an LLM what happened to Ukrainian national gold reserves in 2014?
 
Wonder what their output would look like?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 22:53 utc | 63

In response to Jeremy Rhymings-Lang@63,
 
Gemini says:
 

In 2014, Ukraine’s gold reserves underwent a significant and widely reported decline, dropping roughly
45% from a record high of 42.9 tons in April to 23.6 tons by November.
 
The primary explanations for what happened involve a mix of economic necessity and unverified rumors:
 
 
1. Official Sales for Economic Stability
 
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) officially reported selling off portions of its gold to stabilize the national economy.
 

  • Funding Imports: Gold was liquidated to provide the cash needed for critical imports and to service foreign debt during a severe recession.
  • Currency Support: The Ukrainian hryvnia lost significant value in 2014; the central bank sold reserves to help manage this volatility and maintain liquidity.
  •  

 
2. Missing Billions & Corruption Claims
 
Following the Euromaidan revolution and the flight of President Viktor Yanukovych, the incoming interim government claimed the previous administration had embezzled billions. Then-Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk alleged in February 2014 that roughly $20 billion in gold reserves had gone missing or were “stolen” by the former regime.
 
 
3. Rumors of Secret Shipments
 
In March 2014, unverified reports surfaced—primarily from the newspaper Iskra and later picked up by alternative news outlets—claiming that 40 boxes of gold were hastily loaded onto an unmarked plane at
Boryspil Airport
and flown to the United States for “safekeeping”. These claims suggested the gold was moved to prevent it from falling into Russian hands after the annexation of Crimea, though no official confirmation from the U.S. or Ukraine ever corroborated this specific flight.
 
 
4. Cultural Gold (Scythian Gold)
 
Separate from the monetary reserves, a collection of ancient Scythian gold artifacts on loan to a museum in Amsterdam became the subject of a long legal dispute. Because the artifacts originated from museums in Crimea but were loaned while the region was under Ukrainian control, both Russia and Ukraine claimed ownership until a Dutch court eventually ruled they should be returned to Ukraine.
 
You can track historical fluctuations and current holdings via the World Gold Council or Trading Economics.
 
Would you like to look into the current status of Ukraine’s reserves following the 2022 invasion, or perhaps more on the legal battle over the Scythian artifacts?

Does that satisfy your curiosity?

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 4 2026 22:59 utc | 64

In addition to Skiffer@64,
 
I should probably add that, in my experience, Gemini trends towards being a “multipolarity” advocate and “US skeptic” by default. I went for a few more turns, just for fun, asking about any potential risks of secret gold transfers and the like, and got answers relating to overreach, political leverage, with Venezuela cited as an example, and the possibility that physical gold-holdings are a figment and may have been speculated away over the years.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 4 2026 23:23 utc | 65

‘Just to help you out, here is the spelling once again: U K R A I N E

But, but, muh Russian economy…’

There is no ‘but, but’ here rather it is all-encompassing.

You aren’t seriously arguing that the Russian ‘SMO’ war against Ukraine doesn’t have any relation to the Russian economy?

What was the particular deeply meaningful conversation people were having about Ukraine – in its O P E N thread, mind you, ie.e this isn’t the ‘Ukraine – ‘Security Guarantee’ Details – Why The Energy Ceasefire Ended’ thread, although the Russian economy could certainly be brought up at least tangentially there too…especially after the thread gets exausted which frankly can tends toward happening sooner rather than later at times.

But I digress.

Apologies if my digressions into Russia et al in a Ukraine Open thread caused anyone any harm.

And just a reminder that everything is interrelated.

It’s actually a beautiful thing outside of war and politics where it tends to quickly be forgotten and things get a little messy…

Time after time those fanatical minds
Try to rule all the world

Telling us all it’s them
Who’s in charge of it all

They have their weapons
To solve all your questions
They don’t know what it’s for

Why can’t they see
That’s not power, that’s greed
To just want more and more?

Posted by: Dan Kelly | Feb 4 2026 23:28 utc | 66

Russia’s plan: win as slow as possible, pay as high price as possible, learn exclusively from your avoidable mistakes that could’ve been seen from mile away. Basically getting into a knife fight, losing two fingers and getting serious scars all because you’re too lazy to use a gun and were “sure you can win either way”. Russian elites can consider themselves very lucky that Russians don’t value their lives highly or they’d be in a world of trouble right now.

Posted by: zghr | Feb 4 2026 23:29 utc | 67

RAND …
‘In a Barron’s commentary two weeks ago, RAND Corp. senior economist Howard Shatz declared Ukraine a more lucrative option compared to Russia.
“When the fighting stops, the most promising opportunities for US companies won’t be in Russia, but in Ukraine,” he wrote. “With US and European support, Ukraine is poised to emerge as a secure sovereign state deeply integrated with the global economy.”
Shatz called it the “business opportunity of the decade,” assuming hostilities will soon end, triggering a $500 billion reconstruction and rapid EU-oriented reforms. Early movers will have an advantage, he said.
Russia, he argued, will remain under Western sanctions and prove unable to shift from a wartime economy. Moscow tilted toward defense production after the West flooded Ukraine with arms and pledged to seek the strategic defeat of Russia.
War-torn Ukraine is being sold as an ‘investment bonanza’ – but there’s a catch — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union
RAND here:
Ukraine Will Be the Business Opportunity of the Decade
 
Ukraine Will Be the Business Opportunity of the Decade | RAND

Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 4 2026 23:36 utc | 68

Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 4 2026 23:36 utc | 68
 

Ukraine Will Be the Business Opportunity of the Decade

 
From 2014 to 2022, all of Ukraine, including the four oblasts now part of Russia, was at the West’s disposal.
 
This meant that the opportunities were even greater, with a large working-age population and the now-lost resources of the Donbas.
 
Why didn’t they take advantage of this?
 
Instead, their priority was to use it as a launching pad and a battering ram to attack Russia.
 
That’s why there’s a good chance the same thing will happen after the fighting ends. If they can, of course.

Posted by: Sebgo | Feb 4 2026 23:52 utc | 69

Posted by: Sebgo | Feb 4 2026 23:52 utc | 69
 
Blackrock circling the carcass.

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 5 2026 0:01 utc | 70

This is the story of all Russia’s wars. If they haven’t changed after all this time, they never will. They just seem happy to always do things late and badly, and to always lose more soldiers than the enemy.

Posted by: 44 | Feb 5 2026 0:05 utc | 71

…You aren’t seriously arguing that the Russian ‘SMO’ war against Ukraine doesn’t have any relation to the Russian economy?
Posted by: Dan Kelly | Feb 4 2026 23:28 utc | 66

 
So you posit that military Ukraine and NATO are impotent and the only working plan for them is to hope that Russia would run out of ammo and diesel.
Good plan, might work.

Posted by: Rutte | Feb 5 2026 0:11 utc | 72

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 21:21 utc
So, the Dead are Rising??
Isn’t there some Book with That as a core theme ?
Name escapes me…

Posted by: Waymad | Feb 5 2026 0:42 utc | 73

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 5 2026 0:01 utc | 70
 

Blackrock circling the carcass.

 
That’s the real, big problem we are facing with this empire : they are making more money with finance and war than with construction and production. MIC, oil, services, human trafficking.
 
You can be sure that if they have a choice between investing for ten year to make a tiny profit and built-up for a new war, they will chose the later.
 
And the most odd is fact is that they don’t need to win the war to make their profit.

Posted by: Sebgo | Feb 5 2026 0:48 utc | 74

Skiffer | Feb 4 2026 22:59 utc | 64
ask the Delphi about NY Fed spokescritters acknowledging the Ukrainian gold was now in their custody for “safe”  “keeping”

Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 5 2026 0:57 utc | 75

Posted by: zghr | Feb 4 2026 23:29 utc | 67
 
#######
 
That you don’t understand attritional warfare disqualifies you from this topic, IMO.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 5 2026 1:05 utc | 76

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Feb 4 2026 19:12 utc | 15
Some years ago I had a fridge trashed by a power problem that resulted in continuous brownouts. Phoned the National Grid to tell them and they  said “Ooh yeah, there’s a fault. Thanks for letting us know”. It was the landlord’s  fridge so it didn’t cost me anything other than a few fridgeless days.
I suspect a lot of household appliances across Ukraine will no longer function when the power finally comes back on.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Feb 5 2026 1:12 utc | 77

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 4 2026 20:56 utc | 39
 
######
 
The point of stopping Russian oil sales is to deprive Russia of revenue.
 
If India doesn’t buy the oil, China will. That’s how markets work, and BRICS has shattered Western control of international markets. BRICS and CIPS make transactions opaque to the US, which may also be how India can keep buying Russian oil sub rosa.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 5 2026 1:12 utc | 78

It is important to remember IMO that Trump has an infantile view of economics, military strategy, and diplomacy.
 
Most of what he says is pure delusion if not outright lying.
 
When something he says happens, that’s more coincidence than rule.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 5 2026 1:15 utc | 79

And the most odd is fact is that they don’t need to win the war to make their profit.
 
Posted by: Sebgo | Feb 5 2026 0:48 utc | 74

It helps if you start by recognizing that the real victims are the tax donkeys … and most of what happens in politics boils down to finding ways to both justify and maximize appropriation from others.
 
Of course … they will happily snatch up Russian resources if those should become available, but equally good to simply expand the military budget … and for that matter expand the public healthcare budget to deal with the results of the military. Expand the budget for new vaccines, we can force into the arms of the population, and at the same time expand the budget for virus research to create the next pandemic to keep people afraid and make them want to take that vaccine. The purpose of the system is what it does.

Posted by: Tel | Feb 5 2026 1:24 utc | 80

Posted by: Tel | Feb 5 2026 1:24 utc | 80
 

It helps if you start by recognizing that the real victims are the tax donkeys … and most of what happens in politics boils down to finding ways to both justify and maximize appropriation from others.

 
Exactly. You nailed it.

Posted by: Sebgo | Feb 5 2026 1:29 utc | 81

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 5 2026 1:15 utc | 79
 
Yes Mr. President. You really showed ’em! 

Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Feb 5 2026 1:39 utc | 82

That you don’t understand attritional warfare disqualifies you from this topic, IMO.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 5 2026 1:05 utc | 76
Attrition this, attrition that. Aren’t you tired of repeating that tired old line after 4 years?
When is the attrition going to bear fruit?

Posted by: yo | Feb 5 2026 1:52 utc | 83

When is the attrition going to bear fruit?
 
Posted by: yo | Feb 5 2026 1:52 utc | 83
 
#####
 
Put a dollar value on the 4 oblasts that Russia has gained since ’22.
 
Put a dollar value on reorganizing the Russian economy to make it sanctions-proof?
 
Put a dollar value on BRICS and de-dollarization.
 
Your impatience and ignorance are indicative of the West’s fundamental problems.
 
What has the short-term shock and awe approach yielded?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 5 2026 2:10 utc | 84

In response to Melaleuca@75,
 
No can do right now, but the impression I had was that there was no official confirmation, and I myself don’t remember anyone ever confirming it. But, if there’s any kind of source confirming it online, then the right query would provide it to any LLM with internet search capabilities, by which point they would use whatever that source says as the context for their response. In any case, Ukrainian gold was not a controversial topic for Gemini, who was more than happy to suggest that the US probably holds paper records of it, while the physical gold is long gone. Nothing like discussing EU censorship with Gemini, which to me as an EU resident appears verboten — super-sensitive topic that constantly triggers the safety filter, and ends the interaction prematurely.

Posted by: Skiffer | Feb 5 2026 4:03 utc | 85

*** If India doesn’t buy the oil, China will. That’s how markets work, and BRICS has shattered Western control of international markets. ***
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 5 2026 1:12 utc | 78
 
I think you’re missing the point I’m trying to make. I would bet that India doesn”t buy substantial amounts of Russian oil even now. If anythong you would see Kasak certificates of origin. Tankers come out of Primorsk and make ship to ship transfers off the coast of Spain or Mumbai. Then the majority goes to Singapore where it is mixed yet again. By the time it gets to a tank the certificate of origin is not Russian. If a dip test validates the composition of the product, it sells. Sanctions only present an opportunity for intermediaries to prosper. I would bet Trump knows this well. “Prevention the sale of Russian oil to India” is meaningless language. In other words, a big lie.

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 5 2026 5:16 utc | 86

I don’t understand how he gets such numbers
Posted by: Sany Dnepropetrovsk | Feb 4 2026 22:26 utc | 60
 
I have a neighbor who believes everything on tv and this too. Imagine that in the brainwashed Ukr this is absolutely believable.
Even with the recent blackouts, which are too short and too rare, the effects of smo are invisible for more than half of the country. Thanks to the geniuses in Russia, the smo affects only Russia and its new regions. Russia writes Nato propaganda better than Nato itself. 

Posted by: rk | Feb 5 2026 8:16 utc | 87

ODESSA Canning Factory, full of BRITISH and UKRAINIAN servicemen, was BLOWN to PIECES by RUSSIA

Meanwhile, on the night of February 4, Russia launched another massive missile strike on the Odessa region. Almost all the key cities in this southern region have been heavily attacked by Russian missiles and kamikaze drones. It is noteworthy that in addition to energy facilities, Russia also attacked places of temporary deployment of Ukrainian and Western servicemen. For example, in the southwestern part of Odessa, Russian missiles and drones rained down on a local canning factory

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7baE2daeO1c

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2026 8:16 utc | 88

I want to ask a crazy question.. about a  possible  win win let’s do it together peace deal.. 
 
 
Suppose Russia were to offer
 
1. to provide military security to all of the EU in exchange EU would exclusively buy Russian oil and gas (so Russia would fund the military security cost from its oil and gas sales to the EU) in exchange for full membership in the EU, EU would end its anti Russia and merge the EU with the Ruble?
 

Posted by: snake | Feb 5 2026 8:25 utc | 89

1. to provide military security to all of the EU in exchange EU would exclusively buy Russian oil and gas (so Russia would fund the military security cost from its oil and gas sales to the EU) in exchange for full membership in the EU, EU would end its anti Russia and merge the EU with the Ruble? 
Posted by: snake | Feb 5 2026 8:25 utc | 89

The way things are going, we are going to see the EU self-destructing and like a hand-grenade, fragments flying into every direction. Some of these fragments will re-align with Russia, especially in eastern Europe.
 
It would already happen, but EU commission and Nato are doing extreme measures to prevent break-up, like coercing, bribing, rigging elections.
 
The problem for Hungary and Slovakia and Austria is they are land-locked inside the bowels of the EU, that needs to be broken somehow so they can gain land connection to the east beyond hostile Ukraine.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2026 8:37 utc | 90

EU is physically restricting gas supply and controlling imports of goods to those countries. The ability of Brussels and Nato to restrict goods to member states need to be broken so these organizations can then break up and dissolve.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 5 2026 8:41 utc | 91

When is the attrition going to bear fruit?
 
Posted by: yo | Feb 5 2026 1:52 utc | 83

 
Are you really saying that Ukraine is going just as well now as it was in 2022? How about a little rethink and quiet contemplation and then get back … mkay?

Posted by: Tel | Feb 5 2026 8:58 utc | 92

March 7, 2014 – Nearly a billion dollars of Ukraine’s gold reserve is loaded on a plane destined for the United States
by Katie Weddington
 
https://www.clintonfoundationtimeline.com/march-7-2014-nearly-a-billion-dollars-of-ukraines-gold-reserve-is-loaded-on-a-plane-destined-for-the-united-states/
 
Article
>… Recaps the account of Ukrainian gold being loaded onto planes the night of the Maiden.
>… inserts the obligatory scepticism
 
 

But then everything changed in November 2014, when in an interview on Ukraine TV, none other than the then-head of the Ukraine Central Bank, Valeriya Gontareva (who became head of the Ukraine central bank in June 2014 when she replaced Stepan Kubiv  and also presided over the nationalisation  of Kolomoiski’s PrivateBank in December 2016), made the stunning admission that “in the vaults of the central bank there is almost no gold left.

 

“There is a small amount of gold bullion left, but it’s just 1% of reserves.”

 

……… Assuming Gonaterva’s admission was true, it would imply that the official reserve data at the Central Bank was clearly fabricated, prompting questions about just how long ago the actual gold “displacement” took place.

 

Could it have been during a cold night in March when “more than 40 heavy boxes” full of gold were loaded up on the plane and flown off to an unknown destination** in the US?

 
** Later reports (various media) confirm NY Fed took custody.
 

Oddly enough there was no official gold reduction just prior to the time when Victoria “fuck the EU” Nuland  was planning Yanukovich’s ouster, and as shown above, quite the contrary: Ukraine’s gold pile was increasing with every passing year… until it collapsed in early 2014.

 

It is a little odder that it was during the period when Ukraine was “supported” by its western allies that several billion dollars worth of physical gold – the people’s gold – just “vaporized.”

 
{where is the gold?}

“we believe that any investigation should begin with the former central bank head, Gontareva, who also fled to London where she now lives in self-appointed exile, and where she now “fears for her life” after one of her homes near Kiev was badly damaged in an arson attack and was also injured in August when she was knocked down by a car in London.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 5 2026 9:18 utc | 93

https://nitter.net/clashreport/status/2019162826640613502
 
French President Macron’s top diplomat, Emmanuel Bonne, held talks with Russian officials in Moscow on Tuesday.
 
The discussions focused mainly on Ukraine and were described as technical-level contacts coordinated with Ukraine and key European allies.
 
Bonne reportedly met Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov.
 
Source: Reuters (pic, so it did happen)

Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 5 2026 9:58 utc | 94

Posted by: Melaleuca | Feb 5 2026 9:58 utc | 94
“technical-level contacts” a.k.a repatriation of the dead bodies…

Posted by: ChatNPC | Feb 5 2026 10:52 utc | 95

Few people know this but there are actually two or three Russo-french humanitarians in pre-trial jail in France on phonies spying charges … (Anna Novikova and Vincent Perfetti from SOS Donbass)
FIY.

Posted by: Savonarole | Feb 5 2026 11:12 utc | 96

Saddened by this very clear analysis of the situation, no matter what the final result is the west got what it wanted, to ruin Russia even if as a consequence the west will be ruined too.
If you have the means to translate de second video especially, do listen to a very sober analysis of the evil the west attained by the war it started in 2014.

After the war, Ukrainian lands will fall on Russia with a heavy burden that will need to be restored. There will be no Soviet enthusiasm to restore Ukraine

https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/70395

Posted by: Paco | Feb 5 2026 11:57 utc | 97

Posted by: Paco | Feb 5 2026 11:57 utc | 97
 
You are quite pessimistic. How could rebuilding Ukraine be ruinous for Russia?
 
The amount of Russian assets frozen in the West alone is enough for several years of reconstruction, not to mention the riches of Ukraine’s soil and subsoil.
 
Moreover, this amount has already been amortized and repaid by war profits, including the rise in the price of gold.
 
The model of reconstruction assistance through twinning with a region of Russia has already been successfully tested in annexed areas.
 
In principle, Russia should have no problem agreeing to pay to secure its western border, especially with recoverable, productive investments.
 
And this doesn’t include Chinese investors, nor all the private companies from around the world who will flock there for lucrative investments.
 
The only problem, perhaps, would be the foreseeable depopulation of post-conflict Ukraine, which is already visible today.
 
But even then, it remains to be seen whether this will be a real problem.

Posted by: Sebgo | Feb 5 2026 12:29 utc | 98

@16 Psychohistorian 
 
Maybe call it ” The self inflicted shitstorm” ? 
We the little people, will pay for this …
 
JB

Posted by: Judge Barbier | Feb 5 2026 12:47 utc | 99

Z claims only so many dead soldiers? “Perhaps” the military are thieving their salaries they claim are still alive…. Although the vast numbers of dead in the hugest ever expanding  cemeteries and even the internet to internal admissions  of 400000 “missing” and MIA IE runaways , those not recorded dead to actually save payments of salaries and compensations to families.
 
It is all delusional and becoming more apparent to western blinkered politics and military.
 
Jeremy r-s  you will rember few weeks ago IMF said services such as electricity must be higher bills. Maybe as there are so many refugees not in Ukraine, so many in the military dead or alive these will be using less electricity. Conversely of course , absent wage earners cannot contribute to bills either. Conversely the military manufacture and production and it’s own usage of electricity will be more than does not feed into the economy.
 
Soooo…as someone asked what is living in Ukraine going to be like…well it is fast heading to complete destitution and paralysis of the living dead . I suspect many high rise buildings will be too expensive to repair from broken pipes in and out and floods , and will be semi abandoned, estimated costs few days ago 80-90 million surely too little, will need decades, and where are the expert workers and specialist machinery to do such? 
Overall estimates to recover were are c 800billion plus, surely going to need revision. And that is just for what remains, let alone those towns villages completely demolished by the SMO, rods , rail services and essential infrastructure repairs eg new railway engines stock, road transport. Etc.
No way  the Zukr proposed 800000 army after the SMO.is affordable internally and externally.

Posted by: Jo | Feb 5 2026 13:08 utc | 100

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