Last night another large Russian missile and drone strike further degraded the already severely damaged electrical energy system of Ukraine.
The main targets were around Kiev and in western Ukraine. The attack, especially in western Ukraine, was mostly by drones and subsonic cruise missiles. Except for Kiev air defense seems to have been absent or out of munitions.
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Ukrenergo reported that due to strikes on the power system, emergency blackouts are introduced in most regions of Ukraine.
Ukrainian publics write that substations connected with the Rivne [Nuclear Power Plant] were attacked.
It is also stated that drones and missiles attacked the Burshtyn, Ladyzhyn, Dobrotvorskaya and Trypillya thermal power plants.
Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal said that the target of today’s strike was substations and overhead power lines with a voltage of 750 and 330 kV — the basis of the Ukrainian energy system.
According to him, the power units of Ukrainian nuclear power plants were unloaded (that is, urgently stopped – Ed. ).
The nuclear power plants (NPP) create the base load of the Ukrainian energy system. The thermal power plants and other sources usually balance the peak loads. But after several substations which connect the NPPs to the wider network were being hit the NPPs were forced to reduce power (machine translation):
Ukrenergo said that all power units of Ukrainian nuclear power plants in the controlled territory were “forced to be unloaded” due to strikes on substations of electricity transmission and distribution systems.
“This indicates a reduction in power. We are not talking about a complete shutdown,” said Yuriy Korolchuk, an analyst at the Institute for Strategic Studies.
One of the main reasons for unloading – during the attack, the largest 750 kV substation in the Lviv region was damaged, which “hooks” the branch line from both the Rivne and Khmelnitsky nuclear power plants and through which electricity is partially imported from Europe.
“If we focus on Ukrenergo’s data on the forced unloading of all units (and there are 9 of them at Ukrainian NPPs), and focus on the standard power reduction after the attacks (by 200-300 megawatts for each unit), it turns out that at one point the deficit in the system could have increased by 2.7 GW. Taking into account the previous missing 5 GW (the deficit in recent days has slightly decreased due to rising temperatures), the total shortage of electricity is up to 8 GW, or about 50% of the total estimated consumption,” says Korolchuk.
The unplanned ‘unloading’ of an NPP will inevitable degrade its systems. During the summer two of the nine available NPPs in Ukraine will need a multi-months shutdown for larger repair work. Two others are expected to shut down for several weeks.
Repair parts for transformers and network switching equipment are lacking while the lead time for new parts is exceeding six months.
For many months ahead Ukraine will have to live with just 50% or less of the needed electrical power. Further Russian attacks are likely to hinder repairs and may cause additional damage.
Due to the sever lack of power nearly all industrial production in Ukraine will come to a halt. Drone and ammunition supply for the frontline will further decrease.
Ukraine continues to wage its own energy war against Russia. Last night the Russian city of Belgorod experienced another blackout after its electricity network was hit by several HIMARS missiles. This is inconvenient for Russia but not comparable to the huge damage caused in Ukraine.
Meanwhile Reuters reports that the U.S. is in a hurry to push Ukraine towards a peace agreement:
U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators have discussed an ambitious March goal for Russia and Ukraine to agree on a peace deal, though that timeline is likely to slip given a lack of agreement on the key issue of territory, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
Under the framework being discussed by U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators, any deal would be submitted to a referendum by Ukrainian voters, who would simultaneously vote in national elections, according to five sources, who requested anonymity to discuss private deliberations.
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U.S. negotiators have said Trump is likely to focus more on domestic affairs as the November congressional midterms approach, meaning top U.S. officials will have less time and political capital to spend on sealing a peace accord, two sources said.
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But several sources with visibility into the negotiations described the U.S.-proposed timeline as fanciful.
For various reason the acting president of Ukraine and European leaders currently do not want a peace agreement in Ukraine. That the U.S. is in a hurry to conclude one plays in their favor. Unless the U.S. immediately starts to use very severe pressure there is not chance for coming close to ending the conflict.