Russia’s ‘Collapsing’ Economy

February 12, 2026

The reports about Russia’s ‘collapsing’ economy seem to come in somewhat periodic batches.

Russia economy: What is the risk of meltdown? – BBC, Dec 17 2014
Russia’s Looming Economic Collapse – Atlantic, Mar 2 2022
What’s awaiting Russia may be much worse than the chaos of 1990s – Aljazeerah, Mar 4 2022
The Russian economy is headed for collapse – The Conversation, Mar 10 2022
Russia admits it faces economic collapse over Putin’s war – Telegraph, May 9 2022
‘Slower burn.’ Russia dodges economic collapse but the decline has started – CNN, Aug 29 2022
Russia admits it was on the verge of economic collapse – Business Insider, Nov 20 2023
Why the Russian Economy’s Luck is Running Out – Moscow Times, Nov 21 2023
Putin under pressure as Russian economy on verge of freefall after US ‘ultimatum’ – Express, May 4 2024
Russian Economy Faces ‘Creeping Crisis’, Economists Warn – Newsweek, Jul 8 2024
Russia’s weakened energy trade and lost access to the dollar will spark a severe recession within a year – Business Insider, Jul 13 2024
An economic catastrophe is lurking beneath Russia’s GDP growth as Putin ‘throws everything into the fireplace’ – Fortune, Aug 19 2024
The war in Ukraine is straining Russia’s economy and society – Economist, Nov 28 2024
Russia’s War Economy Shows New Cracks After the Ruble Plunges – WSJ, Nov 29 2024
How Russia’s economy reached breaking point – Telegraph, Dec 7 2024
Russia’s economy is entering a year of pain in 2025 – Business Insider, Dec 25 2024
Russian Economy is on the Brink of Collapse – Modern Diplomacy, Jan 3 2025
Russian Economy Time Bomb: Putin Warned of ‘Seismically Disruptive’ War Debt – Newsweek, Jan 13 2025
Addicted to War: Undermining Russia’s Economy – CEPA.org, Feb 5 2025
Russia’s economy is stagnating – but that won’t force it to end the war – The Conservation, Mar 10 2025
Russia needs monetary policy changes to avert a recession, says economy minister – Reuters, Jun 19 2025
The Russian economy is finally stagnating. What does it mean for the war – and for Putin? – Guardian, Feb 6 2026
Russia economy in meltdown as oil and gas revenues plummet to five-year low – Daily Express, Feb 6 2026
Putin’s war economy is on the verge of implosion – Telegraph, Feb 9 2026

Each batch smells of a covered Mighty Wurlitzer campaign. A batch is issued whenever it is politically ‘necessary’ to depict Russia as falling down.

Posted by b on February 12, 2026 at 17:32 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Consider that this is the same media that has failed to cover the biggest story of the last hundred years, the Epstein horror show in which thousands of kids were kidnapped, repeatedly raped, often tortured, and sometimes murdered and buried in unmarked graves….Any story they print has to be a lie, and one that’s convenient for the CIA or MIC….

Posted by: pyrrhus | Feb 12 2026 17:39 utc | 1

Just a few more sanctions should do the trick. I forget what number they are up to now but I think its getting up around the 19 or 20. 20th round of sanctions should do the trick. I think its the idiot Fin has said just a few more sanctions will do it.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 12 2026 17:44 utc | 2

That would be nice data for an AI query.
” Assume that the following new articles share a common source. Give date and content of the original article.”

Posted by: The Far Side | Feb 12 2026 17:50 utc | 3

It is actually the horribly antiquated US economy that is in deep trouble. Just like most things here i the Untied States, all of the major economic statistics are a lie – GDP, unemployment, inflation, etc. Functional unemployment is at least 25 percent. Our REGIME cares nothing about us. Most Americans suffer from debt and lack of healthcare, expensive housing, NO job security, and have, on average, no more than about $10,000 in savings and that is probably too high. But, yeah, Russia is in trouble. Laugh my ass off. The US is one big lie with perverts and criminals as oligarchs and “leaders”.

They were careless people, Tom and Daisy—they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness or whatever it was that kept them together and let other people clean up the mess they had made.

~ F. Scott Fitzgerald

Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Feb 12 2026 17:50 utc | 4

Ha ha, That is nothing! Try being a little person into bitcoin , and enduring years of libel and slander and accompanying social ostracism

Posted by: E | Feb 12 2026 17:57 utc | 5

They were careless people, Tom and Daisy—they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness or whatever it was that kept them together and let other people clean up the mess they had made. ~ F. Scott Fitzgerald

Thanks Saint Jimmy!

Posted by: pyrrhus | Feb 12 2026 18:00 utc | 6

It is actually the horribly antiquated US economy that is in deep trouble.

Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Feb 12 2026 17:50 utc | 4

—

How the NYT explains China’s “kill line” meme:

Why China Is Suddenly Obsessed With American Poverty

State media, embracing the gaming phrase “kill line,” is asserting China’s political superiority over the United States, deflecting focus on China’s own economic challenges.

Chinese commentators are talking a lot these days about poverty in the United States, claiming China’s superiority by appropriating an evocative phrase from video game culture.

The phrase, “kill line,” is used in gaming to mark the point where the condition of opposing players has so deteriorated that they can be killed by one shot. Now, it has become a persistent metaphor in Communist Party propaganda.

“Kill line” has been used repeatedly on social media and commentary sites, as well as news outlets linked to the state. It has gained traction in China to depict the horror of American poverty — a fatal threshold beyond which recovery to a better life becomes impossible. The phrase is used as a metaphor to encompass homelessness, debt, addiction and economic insecurity. In its official use, the “kill line” hovers over the heads of Americans but is something Chinese people don’t have to fear.

The depiction of the United States as a place where economic hardship is deep and widespread has been a go-to of official Chinese messaging for years. But the use of the “kill line” phrasing and imagery is new. The power is in the simplicity of what it describes: an abrupt threshold where misery begins and a happy life is irreversibly lost. The narrative is meant to offer China’s people emotional relief while attempting to deflect criticism of its leaders.

The worse things look across the Pacific, the logic of the propaganda goes, the more tolerable present struggles become.

It’s not a coincidence that there is a swell of these messages now. China’s economic growth is half what it once was. Youth unemployment is high. Familiar paths to security — stable jobs, rising property values, steady upward mobility — have become less predictable. For many families, the margin for error feels thinner than it once did.

full story ==> https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/business/china-american-poverty.html

Every accusation is a confession.

Posted by: too scents | Feb 12 2026 18:13 utc | 7

too scents | Feb 12 2026 18:13 utc | 7

Western propaganda is always projection. I used to think of it as a rule of thumb but instead it has become a mathematical certainty.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 12 2026 18:20 utc | 8

Re: Poverty in the US
Is shockingly pervasive. Since we drive everywhere, we tend to be isolated in our SUVs from the homeless encanpments that are everywhere. We simply don’t notice.

Posted by: Exile | Feb 12 2026 18:27 utc | 9

The strange part is the complete lack of interest in the state of our own economy. Which is arguably a lot more relevant.

Posted by: Marvin | Feb 12 2026 18:32 utc | 10

How about the USA’s collapsing military industrial complex?

“The U.S. military has begun accepting new F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters that are missing their most critical sensor: the radar. Since June 2025, production batches of the world’s most advanced jet have been rolling off the assembly line at Fort Worth with a simple ballast weight installed in the nose cone to keep the aircraft balanced, a stop-gap measure necessitated by chronic delays in the next-generation AN/APG-85 radar system.”
https://ragex.co/defense/f35-radar-delays-ballast-weights/

This is the norm now for US weapons systems – over-complicated, over-refined, over cost, and over time. Never mind – this is the “most successful fighter plane program in the history of the world” – or something like that.

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Feb 12 2026 18:32 utc | 11

Posted by: too scents | Feb 12 2026 18:13 utc | 7

That might be somewhat true about China but I know it’s mostly true now about the US. As critical resources dwindle, trade and certain economies will suffer.

Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Feb 12 2026 18:35 utc | 12

b: Nice flourish to bring all this to the “Mighty Wurlitzer” role in all this.

98% of the world population does not know enough about the SMO and the relative positions of the parties involved to even begin to question the veracity of plain old Google AI. They don’t really want to know because that would be difficult. 2 million dead soldiers does not matter. What matters is that they follow what is popular.
A human being is the sum total of all decisions about which they may be judged. If a person decides based upon what is popular they have made no decision at all. They are nobody. Being nobody prevents you from getting the tall weed treatment.

Posted by: frithguild | Feb 12 2026 18:40 utc | 13

@ 4
Hate to be the dissident here, but the bit I agree with is that GDP is a bad number to go by, because it is essentially meaningless. Something like 3% of US GDP is just Google and Facebook ad revenues, for example. Do those ads result in sales for the businesses buying them? Fuck no. But that money does move around. There is of course the joke about the economists paying each other the same $20 to eat a pile of shit, and thus increasing GDP by $40.

But the US economy is at worst okay, at least for the majority of Americans. Labor force participation rate is at a historically high level. The cost of living is increasing, but that can be changed by government action, if the government would get off its ass in ways that matter (building the fuck out of public housing and letting the landlord class eat shit). Inflation is higher than what the Fed would like it to be, but it’s manageable. Consumers continue to fork over dollars and haven’t shown signs of reducing their spending in spite of low savings rates (in fact a high savings rate would be worse for our ruling elite’s goal of never-ceasing economic growth, it is what the European economies have been dealing with for ages). The debt is serviceable as long as the US dollar remains the global reserve currency, the US runs a goods trade deficit, and foreigners keep buying (and inflating) US asset prices, the latter of which benefits the growing ranks of US retirees whose net worths are premised on inflated 401ks, wrought up as they are in the stock market.

Would love for some cold water to get splashed on my analysis.

Posted by: fnord | Feb 12 2026 18:45 utc | 14

fnord-14
dont need cold water.
“okay” is enough to debase your writing yourself – usa ecomedy and intendant wealth gap speaks against you …

Posted by: Dfnslblty | Feb 12 2026 18:59 utc | 15

lol… you don’t like the mighty wurlitzer b?? thanks for the post…

Posted by: james | Feb 12 2026 19:02 utc | 16

The important thing is that we all look over there, because “the walls are closing in” wish-casting evil eye upon ‘our enemies’ or something like that. 😉 It’s all so very serious, for so very serious people. You must agree because you are a serious person, aren’t you?! 😉

😀 Honestly, laugh at these ghouls. Then they just look pathetic, like withered elderly in rags feeding off carrion parading as fearsome. Mainstream media needs a good bath, comfy bathrobe, and a hot bowl of soup before shoved in front of their own TV reruns to yammer away into their good night.

Posted by: titmouse | Feb 12 2026 19:05 utc | 17

ot

@ E | Feb 12 2026 17:57 utc | 5

did you read this article i shared in the past week?? the hijacking of bitcoin.…

Posted by: james | Feb 12 2026 19:07 utc | 18

The “kill line” is actually an incredibly correct description of current American facts’o’life. So no surprise the MSM feel so insulted on behalf of their “there is no society” society.

If BRICS succeed we’ll see the dawn of a new world order where the US political system rightly dwindles away. What will happen to all the unlucky US citizens in or close to the kill line remains to be seen. I do feel for them. They have had, or have known, no means to change the system.

Posted by: Avtonom | Feb 12 2026 19:13 utc | 19

Well B, at least putin is not dying every week …

Wishful thinking got the west in this mess, why wouldn’t it get them out? /s

Posted by: Newbie | Feb 12 2026 19:24 utc | 20

too scents | Feb 12 2026 18:13 utc | 7—

Thanks for the excerpt. The term arose from China’s private–free–online media; and in the articles I’ve read and the few I’ve translated and republished, all the facts cited come from Western media and US government stats. I understand what the Killing Line means very well as my daughter and grandson are trapped in its matrix encountering conditions she’d never face if she lived in Russia or China.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 12 2026 19:26 utc | 21

WARRIOR UPDATE WITH SCOTT RITTER – EP 112 – ATTACK ON IRAN WILL GO BAD QUICKLY – UKRAINE COLLAPSING

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HvShNTx3wI

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 12 2026 19:31 utc | 22

James, why are you using the english language?! Did you know that epstein uses the english language!

Posted by: E | Feb 12 2026 19:34 utc | 23

Speaking of a ‘collapsing economy’…

DW: Richard Wolff & Michael Hudson

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdZeQS6yW1c

“Is Trump killing American capitalism? The 2026 economic breakdown…”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Feb 12 2026 19:37 utc | 24

The only thing that has likely been hijacked is the price control of it by black rock e t c, since it remains tiny market cap in global terms, the conclusion of that article was complete shite , use a privacy coin?!?

Posted by: E | Feb 12 2026 19:49 utc | 25

On 3 February, Putin held the most recent meeting on the economy. Here’s a portion of what Putin said:

I would like to draw your attention to something that we always talk about: it is important to monitor not only the price dynamics, but also the overall picture and all macroeconomic indicators. In this regard, I would like to remind you of the tasks that were set for the Government and the Central Bank. These tasks were outlined at the meeting of the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects in December.

The task is clear: we need to restore the growth rate of the domestic economy, improve the business climate, and increase investment activity with a focus on increasing labor productivity. These measures are included in the Economic Structural Change Plan for 2030.

I ask you to perform it rhythmically, according to the planned schedule, so that the first significant results will be noticeable in the current year. I mean both an increase in economic growth and a decrease in inflation. Let me remind you that this Plan of Structural Changes, which I have just mentioned, was approved by the Government at the end of last year, in November-yes, Mikhail Vladimirovich [Mishustin]?

At the same time, I would like to emphasize once again that increasing labor productivity is a priority task in the face of a shortage of personnel in certain sectors and industries. In this regard, it is necessary to actively implement automatic systems and industrial robots, digital platforms, and artificial intelligence solutions.

I also ask my colleagues to pay increased attention to improving the employment structure in the economy. It is important for us to make it more efficient by creating modern, well-paid jobs in sectors with high labor productivity. This is significant for both those professionals who are already working in enterprises and companies, and those who are still choosing their future profession or studying at universities, colleges, and technical schools.

In short, we need to ensure a new level of high-quality, intensive economic development, and thus of the country as a whole. [My Emphasis]

I find it funny in a way that the last sentence is what always needs to happen on an ongoing basis for any healthy economy, but isn’t what’s happening in most Western economies, particularly the Outlaw US Empire where during Trump’s first year an additional 70,000 manufacturing jobs were offshored, which was part of the predicted results of his Trade War and Tariff policy. GM reported it lost $1 billion last year partly because of Trump’s 50% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. Ford has yet to report but it’s expected to be just as gloomy.

IMO, the media outlets publishing the presented narrative would regain some credibility of they reported on Western economic decline and why that’s the case.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 12 2026 19:54 utc | 26

The grift was , i like bitcoin buy my shitcoin, for many years… I guess the grift now is, i do not like bitcoin buy my shitcoin 🙂

Posted by: E | Feb 12 2026 19:55 utc | 27

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Feb 12 2026 18:20 utc | 8

Western projection and narrative has reached curious and critical point – it is so effective that their own leadership believes that nonsense, so decisions at the top are made using that instead of reality.

Which has fascinating effect: believing China/Russia/etc. has a weak point, and believing west is superior in that approach, they chose it to attack. But since it is projection, truth is reversed.

Or as Sun Tzu would say (paraphrasing): attack where enemy is weak with what you have strong. Only reality is reversed and west is exposing own weak hands attacking where enemy is superior.

The way of lemming.

Posted by: Abe | Feb 12 2026 19:55 utc | 28

E,, long but good article on ZH about bitcoin. I can’t put the link because the post is immediately deleted.

Modern Money Only Works By Cheating”: If You’re Long Bitcoin (Or Not Long Bitcoin),

Posted by: arby | Feb 12 2026 19:56 utc | 29

So the russian goal is to increase economic growth and decrease inflation, ?

Posted by: E | Feb 12 2026 20:05 utc | 30

So has any one here read, dergigi, bitcoin is time , here yet?

Posted by: E | Feb 12 2026 20:08 utc | 31

ot – e, you are posting all unrelated posts to this thread – ot – off topic… not sure how long you are going to last here at moa, doing this.. use the open forum instead if you only want to talk bitcoin..

Posted by: james | Feb 12 2026 20:11 utc | 32

The good thing is that most Russians don’t read the Western trash. So the West can continue its wet dream undisturbed. It is a coping mechanism, the rage of an impotent adversary. Especially since it is the West’s economy that is crating at high speed. Well, that is psychological projection for you.

Posted by: Steve | Feb 12 2026 20:15 utc | 33

Posted by: fnord | Feb 12 2026 18:45 utc | 14Would love for some cold water to get splashed on my analysis.
<= You mixed up the two different economies that exist in USA governed America..

The elite owned and too big to fail managed USA economy is doing well. The American economy is struggling from the up-draft that is dragging money, wealth and resources from the pockets of Americans into support for not only the USA economy but every westernized economy in the world.

Posted by: snake | Feb 12 2026 20:18 utc | 34

James, so i guess you feel that the real issue is not that a mighty wurlitzer exists… As long as it is pointed at the “right” target!

Posted by: E | Feb 12 2026 20:30 utc | 35

The Disappearance of Barbarians – by Evgenia

Posted by: e-dog | Feb 12 2026 20:45 utc | 36

At what Cost? was missing…..🙄🤫

Posted by: Nobody | Feb 12 2026 20:45 utc | 37

“Les gens que vous tuez se portent assez bien”
Just remember, if you win in the narrative, nothing else matters

Posted by: Fernando Castro | Feb 12 2026 20:48 utc | 38

Narrative has no say in guessing the next valid block of transactions and receiving the current block reward plus fees

Posted by: E | Feb 12 2026 20:59 utc | 39

Posted by: E | Feb 12 2026 19:55 utc | 27
The grift is that they are all shitcoin.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Feb 12 2026 21:07 utc | 40

“Western projection and narrative has reached curious and critical point – it is so effective that their own leadership believes that nonsense, so decisions at the top are made using that instead of reality.”
It is also possible that Western leaders do know the real truth, but are afraid to be the ones to point it out. They know they are doing things that won’t work, and they do them anyway out of pure cowardice and self-promotion.

It raises cynical to a new level of evil. But then again, this is the Epstein class of leaders, from both parties, who were willing to do all of that and allow all of that. So this is not much different from what they’ve shown they are.

Posted by: Mark Thomason | Feb 12 2026 21:13 utc | 41

Okay chat , please send me part of a bitcoin for free

Posted by: E | Feb 12 2026 21:13 utc | 42

When challenged as to why nobody in the Epstein files has been indicted, Pam Bondi flames out.
Perhaps she thought she was interviewing for Commerce Secretary, apparently the Orange Golem might be hiring.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Feb 12 2026 21:14 utc | 43

Posted by: E | Feb 12 2026 21:13 utc | 42
10010111
There you go.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Feb 12 2026 21:16 utc | 44

Economy

Real GDP growth (ˆ2025)

Debt-to-GDP (public)

Benchmark policy rate

Inflation (latest yr avg)

GDP per head (PPP)

United States

2.0-2.5%

120%

5.25-5.50% (Fed funds upper range)

3.0%

$85k

Euro Area (EU core)

0.8-1.3%

90%

4.00% (ECB deposit rate)

2.5-3.0%

$60k

China

4.5-5.0%

80-85% (govt)

2.5-3.0% (PBoC policy rates)

0-1%

$23k

Russia

2-3%

20%

16%

7-8%

$35k

India

6-7%

82-85%

6.50% (RBI repo)

4-5%

Posted by: Ravi N Droolin | Feb 12 2026 21:19 utc | 45

Doesn’t really look like it’s Russia that has the problem…

Posted by: Ravi N Droolin | Feb 12 2026 21:19 utc | 46

Same as the usual botposters here predicting US economic collapse every day.

Posted by: catdog | Feb 12 2026 21:25 utc | 47

Sweet! The mighty w has arrived!

Posted by: E | Feb 12 2026 21:31 utc | 48

Do you mean like the 99 percent loss in the purchasing power of the us dollar over the last fifty odd years ? Despite the incredible technological industrial invention and capacity developed over the last century? Or are you referring to the fact of record us debt that is hard to pawn off around the world these days (apart from outright threats)

Posted by: E | Feb 12 2026 21:35 utc | 49

… Or is it the amazing trustworthiness of a system that will cancel three hundred billion one moment and then try to insert itself as the global middle man more and more?

Posted by: E | Feb 12 2026 21:45 utc | 50

Unfortunately it is partly true today. The Russian economy is shrinking and Russians are now feeling it. This is why Russia banned WhatsApp and a number of social interaction platforms. Banning Google is also on the cards.

This is because Russian oil and gas exports have reduced. NATO has disrupted it by sea piracy. NATO also destroyed a large number of petroleum facilities in Russia. There has been no military response from Russia. It affects the situation in 2 ways. NATO terrorists are getting bolder and locals are sensing weakness of the Russian government. Local Russians are also questioning the weakness of the RF after the collapse of Syria, taking over part of the Venezuelan fleet, Iran and soon Cuba.

Denying these facts only supports NATO. Putin must take decisive action against NATO terror and alternative petroleum suppliers to disrupt global oil and gas sales. Only that can force NATO to accept fair play.

Posted by: Jason | Feb 12 2026 21:49 utc | 51

Same with reports of Putin suffering from illnesses and being near incapacity and death. There has been 20 years of that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claims_of_Vladimir_Putin%27s_incapacity_and_death

Then we’ve had unending reports of Russia not having enough weapons. According to Simplicius yesterday Russia produced 3.7 million artillery shells last year. Production has increased 17 x since 2021. It can produce 152mm shells at 1/4 of the price as the Europeans can as well.

The West can fool itself with propaganda as much as it wants, but it is becoming increasing evident that it does not win wars.

The West and particularly the US is just wallowing in bovine excrement.

It’s time they read American analytical philosopher Harry Frankfurt’s treatise called “On Bullshit”. Some Americans have analyzed and know full well why the chronic lying culture approach does not work in the end with media and governments.

Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Feb 12 2026 21:56 utc | 52

Posted by: Jason | Feb 12 2026 21:49 utc | 51

Wonderful !

Why won’t you send those executives orders to the Kremlin for immediately fulfilling the related tasks.

No doubt they would be happy and thankful for the guidance.
What did I say ? The whole world will owe you a lot, for sure.

Posted by: Sebgo | Feb 12 2026 22:01 utc | 53

@ 49
The collapse in the value of the dollar doesn’t matter as long as wages increase at least in proportion with inflation, and that has been happening. The debt might matter in a few years, but as long as the US can simply print more dollars to make those payments (and thus also allow foreigners to buy US goods and assets with those dollars), it doesn’t matter at all.

I think the real threat for the US is if foreign capitalists no longer see the US as a safe haven for investment, but even four years of erratic and self-sabotaging domestic policy under the current guy might not be enough to convince foreign capitalists of that, at least not outside China and Russia. The big problem for the US is that China has cornered the world market on solar panel production, and solar panels are what the world is demanding in increasing quantities, while our greatest dollar value exports are demanded in fewer and fewer quantities. If a country can meet its electricity demand with Chinese-provided renewables, they don’t need US LNG and crude oil, and Chinese car manufacturers are at quality parity with US car manufacturers, ditto for other machinery, like construction equipment. The Europeans already have us beat on medical equipment, another high value export of the US.

Posted by: fnord | Feb 12 2026 22:04 utc | 54

As far as printing dollars causing inflation goes, that’s Friedmanite dogma that hasn’t held up. The big increase in inflation in the US wasn’t because of the money machine but because of oligopoly mechanics in US markets enabling big corporations to raise prices up until it caused too much pain for it to go on any further. In some core goods we’ve even seen deflation from the high price levels of the mid-Biden administration (and if Biden had been just a little more muscular on this front his girl Kamala might’ve won in 2024, not that it would have made much difference).

Posted by: fnord | Feb 12 2026 22:06 utc | 55

As of early 2026, the IMF ranks Russia as the world’s 4th largest economy by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), with an estimated $6.91T–$7.34T in 2025-2026, driven by high defense spending. However, in nominal GDP, Russia ranks 9th, with projected 2026 GDP at approximately $2.51 trillion. Growth is projected to slow to 0.8%–0.9% in 2026.

Key IMF Data Points (2025-2026 Outlook):

Ranking (PPP): 4th Largest (behind China, US, India).
Ranking (Nominal): 9th Largest (approx. $2.54T in 2025).
Growth Forecast (2026): 0.8% – 0.9%, down from 4.1%–4.3% in 2023-2024, indicating potential stagnation.
Key Drivers: High inflation (5.2% projected for 2026), labor shortages, and high interest rates are hindering growth.

Despite Western sanctions, Russia’s economy has shown resilience, largely due to strong domestic demand, increased military-industrial production, and trade redirected to China and India.

# Resilience …

Posted by: Don Firineach | Feb 12 2026 22:09 utc | 56

According to Simplicius yesterday Russia produced 3.7 million artillery shells last year. Production has increased 17 x since 2021. It can produce 152mm shells at 1/4 of the price as the Europeans can as well.Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Feb 12 2026 21:56 utc | 52

Russia is certainly strong in the production of military goods. But military goods do not generate prosperity. (European countries are now falling into this trap, spending all their money on war instead of investing domestically.)War brings profit to the few and impoverishes the masses.
As long as Europeans have not reached the point where they realize that, despite spending huge sums of money, they are not achieving their goal of plundering Russia, but still believe that increasing the funds will ultimately bring victory, the downward spiral will continue for everyone.

Posted by: smartfox | Feb 12 2026 22:10 utc | 57

…or was the us collapse already baked in a hundred years ago when they started seizing their citizens gold!?

Posted by: E | Feb 12 2026 22:16 utc | 58

The big increase in inflation in the US wasn’t because of the money machine but because of oligopoly mechanics in US markets enabling big corporations to raise prices up until it caused too much pain for it to go on any further.
Posted by: fnord | Feb 12 2026 22:06 utc | 55
My recollection is that prices spiked shortly after everyone in the US was mailed a big check, and people in “non-essential” jobs (not me!) were allowed to stay home watching netflix while collecting unemployment checks that were frequently higher than their regular income.

Posted by: catdog | Feb 12 2026 22:19 utc | 59

A very factual article, B lets the facts speak for themselves. Extensive source research over a period of more than 10 years – exemplary!

Regarding the last source, I asked the virtual gentlemen Data and Spock for their opinion.
Assuming the accuracy of the information mentioned in the article, the following conclusions can be drawn.

****

The following assessment is presented as a joint analytical report by Commander Spock (strategic-logical evaluation) and Lt. Commander Data (empirical and structural analysis).

Spock–Data Analytical Review

Article: “Putin’s war economy is on the verge of implosion”
Author: Samuel Ramani
Genre: Opinion

I. Data: Empirical and Structural Assessment
1. Core Thesis

The article asserts that Russia’s war economy is “on the verge of implosion.”

This is a strong predictive claim. An economic implosion would typically require evidence of:

Sustained negative GDP growth

Fiscal or monetary instability

Currency collapse

Severe balance-of-payments crisis

Breakdown of critical infrastructure

Political destabilization linked to economic stress

The article instead presents:

GDP growth slowdown (4.9% → 1%)

Inflation at 6.4%

Policy interest rate at 15%

Civilian budget cuts

Skilled emigration

These indicators suggest economic strain, not necessarily implosion.

2. GDP Slowdown

A decline from 4.9% growth to 1% indicates deceleration toward stagnation.
It does not indicate contraction.

Implosion typically involves negative growth and cascading financial instability.

Logical distinction:

Slowdown ≠ Collapse.

3. Inflation and Interest Rates

An inflation rate of 6.4% is elevated but not crisis-level.
A 15% interest rate is high, yet not unprecedented for wartime or emerging economies.

Historical comparison shows that many states operate for extended periods under similar or worse monetary conditions without systemic breakdown.

4. Military Casualties (1.2 million killed or wounded)

The number is substantial. However:

No sourcing is provided.

No demographic context is given.

No assessment of mobilization capacity is offered.

The figure strengthens rhetorical force but does not independently substantiate economic implosion.

5. Civilian Budget Cuts and Infrastructure Strain

The article cites:

Healthcare underfunding

Aviation parts cannibalization

Energy maintenance cuts

20% oil refining capacity damaged

These are plausible stressors.

However, missing variables include:

Time horizon

State compensatory mechanisms

Fiscal buffers

Adaptive capacity

Substitution effects

Causality is implied but not demonstrated.

II. Spock: Strategic and Logical Evaluation
1. Definition of “Implosion”

Implosion implies:

Internal systemic collapse

Self-reinforcing destabilization

Abrupt structural failure

The data presented describe:

Structural strain

Resource reallocation toward military production

Economic stagnation

This is characteristic of a wartime economy under pressure — not necessarily one in terminal collapse.

Historically, war economies collapse primarily due to:

Military defeat

Supply chain severance

Political fragmentation

None of these are conclusively demonstrated.

2. Emigration

An outflow of 500,000–1 million citizens is significant.
Relative to a population of approximately 140 million, it is not immediately destabilizing.

Long-term impact: potentially serious.
Short-term implosion trigger: uncertain.

3. Oil Revenue Pressures

The article argues:

Indian imports are declining.

“Shadow fleet” seizures are increasing.

Refinery damage reduces output.

These factors could constrain revenue.

However, absent are:

Current export volumes

Price adjustments

Reserve levels

Alternative trade routing strategies

A collapsing war economy would typically display currency collapse or sovereign default. These are not evidenced.

4. Political Stability

The article itself concedes that economic anxiety is unlikely to produce unrest.

This admission materially weakens the implosion thesis.

Economic hardship without political destabilization indicates adaptation rather than collapse.

III. Rhetorical Pattern Analysis

Data identifies the following rhetorical devices:

Dramatic framing (“perfect storm,” “implosion”)

Historical analogy (Somme comparison)

Stacked negative indicators without counterbalancing factors

Emphasis on moral and humanitarian dimensions

Spock observes:

The argument is directionally linear — it extrapolates negative trends without evaluating stabilizing mechanisms such as:

Capital controls

State-directed industrial production

Currency management

War-driven demand stimulus

Balanced modeling would require inclusion of these variables.

IV. Probabilistic Assessment

Data:
High probability of continued economic strain and stagnation.
Insufficient evidence for imminent systemic implosion.

Spock:
The article is politically coherent but analytically overstated.
It extrapolates linear deterioration into abrupt collapse without demonstrating nonlinear destabilization mechanisms.

V. Joint Conclusion of the Spock–Data Team

The article successfully identifies:

Structural weaknesses

Resource distortions

Long-term demographic and fiscal stress

However, it overextends its conclusion.

It describes a strained wartime economy, not conclusively an economy on the verge of implosion.

Final Assessment

Probability of prolonged stagnation: High.
Probability of near-term economic implosion: Not sufficiently substantiated by the evidence presented.

The scenario is possible.
It is not logically compelled.

Posted by: BlindSpot | Feb 12 2026 22:21 utc | 60

Posted by: smartfox | Feb 12 2026 22:10 utc | 57

Your analysis would be correct in the West. It is not for Russia.

In the West, the military-industrial complex is privately owned, whereas in Russia it is public.
Furthermore, many companies that produce military equipment also manufacture civilian products. This balance allows for a shift from military to civilian production, or vice versa, as needed.

The majority of war profits, whether at the level of banks, exporters, or industrial companies, are redistributed through simple mechanisms.
This ranges from price reductions, which lower the cost of war, to exceptional taxes, which allow the state to allocate funds where needed.
This allocation is used for import substitution, support for the most vulnerable, and innovation.

The current period is a practical demonstration of the flaws of deregulated capitalism, which carries within itself the seeds of its own downfall.
I think someone wrote about this sometimes ago.

Posted by: Sebgo | Feb 12 2026 22:33 utc | 61

@ 59
The stimulus checks were measly. A couple thousand to each citizen in a one time payment is nothing. Much of it was gambled away on cryptocurrency and small time stock market speculation. The unemployment benefits simply kept consumption at a pre-covid level. The majority of the inflation we experienced was due to corporate price-gouging, the Biden admin was right about that much, they just didn’t have the testicular fortitude to really impose consequences on corporations that pulled that shit. Some liberals also mumbled some stuff about supply chain disruptions.

I would be more critical of the PPP “loans”, which were essentially big grants to capital, as virtually none of them were paid back before they were forgiven by the Biden administration. In any case the big increase in inflation happened after these payments had ceased.

Posted by: fnord | Feb 12 2026 22:43 utc | 62

Giving control of the US economy to religious fanatics like Bush II or to senile madmen like Trump isn’t doing the US economy any goo., either.

Posted by: lester | Feb 12 2026 22:43 utc | 63

Again on inflation, the Friedmanite dogma model supposes a casual relationship between money supply and price levels, but are prices set auto-magically? No, of course not, there’s people who set prices, either by running bespoke economic models, or on a whim, based on how much they think they can get away with squeezing out of buyers. When there’s only a handful of sellers, it’s even easier to raise prices, or even to collude in raising them (which is illegal, but when’s the last time anyone actually was held accountable for that?) The fact that corporate profits increased from 2022-2023 suggests that these corporations were not simply passing on higher costs of production, but were in fact seeing how much of a price increase they could get away with before running into diminishing marginal returns.
Here’s an academic article on it: https://scholarworks.law.ubalt.edu/all_fac/1137/

Posted by: fnord | Feb 12 2026 22:52 utc | 64

Posted by: Sebgo | Feb 12 2026 22:33 utc | 61

I think the only smartness ever seen on a Smartfox propaganda comment is his deliberately chosen egotistical profile name.

Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Feb 12 2026 22:57 utc | 65

I imagine countries are queueing up to fail big time just like China and Russia.

Funny old world, words no longer use to mean what it used to.

Thanks b

Posted by: Suresh | Feb 12 2026 23:31 utc | 66

Anthony Scaramucci — the former White House communications director and founder of SkyBridge Capital — has argued that years of deficit-financed spending, particularly military commitments funded without raising taxes and effectively monetized through money creation, are a root cause of today’s crisis of confidence, because inflation operates as a regressive squeeze on wage earners while asset holders are insulated. Giving him credit, that’s a plausible macroeconomic critique rather than partisan rhetoric. From a Marxist perspective, it dovetails with the concept of alienation: ordinary people experience declining real purchasing power and diminished control over their material conditions while fiscal and monetary decisions are made far above them, reinforcing the sense that the system serves capital more reliably than labor — and that widening disconnect is what now feels like it’s boiling over.

Posted by: Princess Bodica | Feb 12 2026 23:35 utc | 67

The fall in the value of the dollar probably has something to do with inflation but it has more to do with its use as a weapon. Now that it has been used as a weapon that cannot be unseen by the ROW.

Posted by: arby | Feb 12 2026 23:40 utc | 68

The reason the dollar does not fallen faster is because so far there is no alternative

Posted by: arby | Feb 12 2026 23:43 utc | 69

fall faster

Central banks have chosen gold as an alternative but a bancor is needed. BITCOIN???

Posted by: arby | Feb 12 2026 23:57 utc | 70

I wonder how long all the addicts can stay away?

After the crazy splurge of revulsion and anger and KARENing.

Posted by: arby | Feb 13 2026 0:00 utc | 71

Oh, and since this is a thread on the crumbling of Russia —

That crazy evil cat Putin dumped all his US dollar junk and bought Gold. about 4 years ago. I think he has done very well on that trade.

Posted by: arby | Feb 13 2026 0:03 utc | 72

Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Feb 12 2026 22:57 utc | 65

Thank you. You will spare me time.

Posted by: Sebgo | Feb 13 2026 0:05 utc | 73

The original writer of “kill line” is a Chinese doctoral student in US working in removing bodies of dead homeless people. So he wrote what he saw with his own eyes. But since that tag went viral and China started rubbing it in, pro west Chinese people dug him out and send death threats to him. He has returned to China to stay alive.

Posted by: Surferket | Feb 13 2026 0:32 utc | 74

Posted by: fnord | Feb 12 2026 18:45 utc | 14 Compulsive nitpicking on the old pension fund socialism argument, a large proportion of current retirees are fortunate enough to be in defined benefit plans. Plus, a large proportion of retirees are mainly dependent on the Social Security, not private pensions, even though the claim was supposed to be Social Security was basically a subsidy to businesses so their pension plans didn’t have to be large enough to live on. As far as defined contribution plans go, the temptation is supposed to be for ordinary wage workers to become amateur day traders, or maybe pay some brokerage firm to churn their account. Given the incredible amount of so-called free enterprise propaganda shelled out daily, starting in elementary school (yes, that early) coupled with the intense campaign to claim socialism doesn’t work, no doubt some people with a little luck in the market are convinced their good fortune is their own doing…and anybody else who fails is a loser who should be punished for folly and lack of character. The notion that the world is divine justice, whether of God or market, has been a staple of religious dogma long before capitalism. And it hangs on, as when a socialist whines about people not working/students not learning. The truth is that most people are average, most seeming exceptions are limited to one area, that over time families and even individual performance tends to regress to the mean. Displeasing to the vanity (well, it is to mine at least) but…still true.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Feb 13 2026 0:36 utc | 75

Military production does not foster human welfare in the long run. There is a toll to the war on Russia and the people of Russia will be paying it in the end. There is a strong tendency for people who are convinced of the invincibility of money and the magic of the market to imagine some sort of financial/monetary apocalypse, I think. Most of them are imaginative projections of discontent I suspect, rather than grounded in reality. In history, true hyperinflation strikes states that have lost the war, or weak states targeted by international finance.

Our host is correct I think that the propaganda mills work some topics on a timer.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Feb 13 2026 0:40 utc | 76

The story of the originator of “Kill line”.

https://open.substack.com/pub/arnaudbertrand/p/the-incredible-story-of-alex-forced

Posted by: Surferket | Feb 13 2026 0:42 utc | 77

Where’s the “Save the Pigeons from Russian’s” campaign …?

Posted by: Trubind1 | Feb 13 2026 1:09 utc | 78

Well , I say writing about the collapse of the Russia economy is somewhere of a cash cow for western journalists. It’s a sure sell to dozens of news outlets and it doesn’t matter how often the story gets repeated.

Posted by: Cheryl | Feb 13 2026 2:16 utc | 79

“The stimulus checks were measly. A couple thousand to each citizen in a one time payment is nothing. ”

nobody got that.
you dont know what youre opining.

Posted by: Not Ewe | Feb 13 2026 2:43 utc | 80

The current period is a practical demonstration of the flaws of deregulated capitalism, which carries within itself the seeds of its own downfall.I think someone wrote about this sometimes ago.
Posted by: Sebgo | Feb 12 2026 22:33 utc | 61

**************

Thanks Sebgo. The war industry in the west is highly profitable. Weapons ‘research’ permeates almost every facet of research in the west. By the end of my research, it was getting quite difficult to find projects that were not related to, or in some way funded by, ‘defense’ budgets. Armaments manufacturing is a significant component of most western manufacturing.

It is quite different in Russia and China.

** I remember reading some time ago that armaments manufacturers in Russia are not allowed to profit from their defense-related activity. Something even less than “cost plus”, but I can’t find the reference now. Can any barfly help me out?? TIA…

Posted by: General Factotum | Feb 13 2026 3:21 utc | 81

Those are feel-good articles. “We are in deep shit but the Russians also, and since we are exceptionnal westerners from the Garden, at least our deep shit smells of roses and hummingbirds”…

This hopefully bring some relief to our sans-dents (“without teeth”, the poor according to ex-french president Hollande).

Posted by: Asian Frog | Feb 13 2026 3:43 utc | 82

“There is a toll to the war on Russia and the people of Russia will be paying it in the end. / Posted by: steven t johnson | Feb 13 2026 0:40 utc | 76″

When you run from a lion, you don’t need to run faster than the lion. You need to run faster than your obese “friend”.

Posted by: Asian Frog | Feb 13 2026 3:47 utc | 83

Posted by: steven t johnson | Feb 13 2026 0:40 utc | 76

Have you got any idea of the huge profits Russia made from only the surge in the price of non precious metals?
And it’s still going on.

I don’t have data, but I am sure that a lot of people will be stunned when the moment will come to make the balance of costs and benefits for each actor of this conflict.

Posted by: Sebgo | Feb 13 2026 4:18 utc | 84

Posted by: steven t johnson | Feb 13 2026 0:40 utc | 76

Of course, the human cost can’t be balanced by anything.

Posted by: Sebgo | Feb 13 2026 4:19 utc | 85

That crazy evil cat Putin dumped all his US dollar junk and bought Gold. about 4 years ago. I think he has done very well on that trade.
Posted by: arby | Feb 13 2026 0:03 utc | 72

Yeah … if Russia was really hurting they would be drawing down their Gold reserves and using it to shore up the budget. So far that hasn’t happened … meaning that either they aren’t feeling much pressure yet, or perhaps they are planning for a very long and hard war, going way beyond what’s happened so far.

Posted by: Tel | Feb 13 2026 4:28 utc | 86

Posted by: Tel | Feb 13 2026 4:28 utc | 86

Russia have also continued to export military equipment and to increase both it’s foreign reserves fund and it’s sovereign fund.

And they took investment commitments I projects in Russia, in China, in Iran, in Turkey, and so on.

That’s not signs of a country on his last legs.

Posted by: Sebgo | Feb 13 2026 4:55 utc | 87

Posted by: Tel | Feb 13 2026 4:28 utc | 86

That’s not western partners will tell you.

Russia sold more than 70% of its gold federal reserves because of the war with Ukraine

https://factually.co/topics/economic-crisis-in-russia

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA3200/RRA3230-1/RAND_RRA3230-1.pdf

etc..etc.

Posted by: CrazyCanuck | Feb 13 2026 5:14 utc | 88

Note: the Russian Federation produces around 330 tonnes of Gold annually. Second biggest producer on Earth

list of producers
https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-production-by-country

Posted by: Exile | Feb 13 2026 5:47 utc | 89

Posted by: CrazyCanuck | Feb 13 2026 5:14 utc | 88

The national wealth fund sold some, but it’s a fraction of what the central bank holds and has accumulated over years, which hasn’t sold any (currently reported around 2330 tons, no drawdowns). So what NSF sold is almost completely made up by the central bank when it comes to net flows.

Posted by: unimperator | Feb 13 2026 6:20 utc | 90

I have heard that China has been lying about its gold purchases and may actually be 10x what is reported.

BRICS will be built on gold, and there is nothing the West can do about it, as Russia and China continue to flip African gold-producing nations into their sphere of influence by freeing them from neo-colonialism.

Gold, Uranium, Lithium, oil, that is the basis of BRICS going forward.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Feb 13 2026 6:28 utc | 91

Every accusation is a confession. Posted by: too scents | Feb 12 2026 18:13 utc | 7
Growing up in Yugoslavia … the media would almost never lie but the truth was hard to find. Yet journalists had ways of communicating their points, and we all understood these between the lines messages. The quoted article would be a classical example of projecting to inferior others (in our case that would be either decadent West or revisionist East) our own situation.
I wonder if these NYT journalists (and their likes) are simply careerist (plausible) or are they playing around the corporate censorship. “The worse things look across the Pacific, the logic of the propaganda goes, the more tolerable present struggles become.” – you can hardly take this at a face value.

Posted by: jekleni | Feb 13 2026 7:14 utc | 92

I searched the stuff about Russia’s National Wealth Fund selling off their Gold and it comes from Kyrylo Shevchenko and Ukrainian intelligence operations. I might take that with a grain of salt.

Russia holds massive amounts of Gold, and the price is sky high right now. If Russia really was dumping hundreds of tonnes into the market then I kinda think the price would be a lot lower. I guess at least they got a better deal than Gordon Brown got when he gave away the Gold of the UK.

Posted by: Tel | Feb 13 2026 7:34 utc | 93

The claim “Russia sold more than 70% of its state gold reserves due to the war with Ukraine” is misleading and lacks important context.

What is true
A large reduction did occur — but it concerns gold held in Russia’s National Wealth Fund (NWF), not the country’s total official gold reserves.

The National Wealth Fund, managed by Russia’s Ministry of Finance, is a sovereign fund used to support the federal budget and stabilize the economy. Since 2022, the amount of gold held in the NWF has reportedly declined by roughly 65–70%, as gold was converted to help cover growing budget deficits amid war spending and sanctions pressure.

What is not true
This reduction does not apply to Russia’s total official gold reserves held by the Central Bank of Russia.

Russia’s central bank gold reserves — part of its international reserves — have remained broadly stable at around 2,300+ metric tons since 2020. There has been no evidence that Russia sold anywhere near 70% of its total national gold holdings.

Physical changes: Russia’s central bank purchased large amounts of gold during the 2010s, but partially suspended or scaled back this strategy from spring 2020 onward. Since then, the physical volume of its gold reserves has remained largely stable.

Increase in value: The sharp rise in global gold prices (for example due to geopolitical uncertainty and investors shifting into safe-haven assets) has significantly increased the USD value of Russia’s reserves — nearly tripling between 2020 and 2026.

Posted by: BlindSpot | Feb 13 2026 8:03 utc | 94

“George Friedman: Why Putin Has Lost the War in Ukraine”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksfn_7H92tc (length: 35 minutes, posted: march 6, 2025)

Posted by: WMG | Feb 13 2026 8:11 utc | 95

Posted by: Sebgo | Feb 13 2026 4:55 utc | 87

Besides the finances, and Russia has shown remarkable resistance with all that has been thrown its way to impede its economy, I think it is completely crazy for any country to underestimate the resilience and determination of its people when they are backed into a corner by a potential aggressor. If Napoleon and Hitler couldn’t do it then there is little chance that anyone else could. Even the country’s landscape and climate bites back.

Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Feb 13 2026 8:12 utc | 96

Describing Russia’s economy as collapsing is like calling yourself a billionaire with a fortune of $50,000 just because you write it as 0.00005 billion.

Posted by: BlindSpot | Feb 13 2026 8:14 utc | 97

In just 48 hours I have learned two new phrases to avoid the algorithm. “Mighty Wurlitzer” and “Chickenswingers”.

Posted by: John Q. Publike | Feb 13 2026 8:41 utc | 98

A large reduction did occur — but it concerns gold held in Russia’s National Wealth Fund (NWF), not the country’s total official gold reserves.

Posted by: BlindSpot | Feb 13 2026 8:03 utc | 94

Interesting information … but who did they sell it to? Anyone in the West going via the LME or Comex would be forbidden from buying sanctioned Gold … that leaves China, India, Turkey, or perhaps they sold directly to Russian citizens. It might leak to the West by indirect means.

Best guess would be that it quietly went to China to encourage more war materials … drone parts, batteries, radios, electronics, etc.

Posted by: Tel | Feb 13 2026 8:42 utc | 99

Everyone is collapsing and everyone is still functioning. Killing 300,000 in Gaza … and that in Uke … is the yeast to your Pension fund stimulus package . When Ai kills accountants , lawyers and Political drones …as a career option , and Public servants become serfs … they can eat the gold in vaults shaped as grain storage .

Posted by: Ban- An – Another | Feb 13 2026 8:53 utc | 100

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