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U.S.-Iran – A War Of Aggressions Which Aims Can Not Be Achieved
Yesterday the Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi, the mediator in talks between the U.S. and Iran, revealed that Iran had offered unprecedented restrictions of its nuclear program to prevent a war.
During a CBS interview he explained:
MINISTER ALBUSAIDI: I am confident, and in my assessment of the way the talks are going, I think there is, really I can see that the peace deal is within our reach.
MARGARET BRENNAN: A peace deal?
MINISTER ALBUSAIDI: Yes, is within our reach, if we just allow diplomacy the space it needs to get there. Because I don’t think any alternative to diplomacy is going to solve this problem.
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MINISTER ALBUSAIDI: The single most important achievement, I believe, is the agreement that Iran will never, ever have a nuclear material that will create a bomb. This is, I think, a big achievement. This is something that is not in the old deal that was negotiated during President Obama’s time. This is something completely new. It really makes the enrichment argument less relevant, because now we are talking about zero stockpiling. And that is very, very important, because if you cannot stockpile material that is enriched then there is no way you can actually create a bomb, whether you enrich or don’t enrich. And I think this is really something that has been missed a lot by the media, and I want to clarify that from the standpoint of a mediator.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So explain that. So the enriched material, things that could be used as nuclear fuel for a bomb, you’re saying Iran would not keep on their own soil?
MINISTER ALBUSAIDI: They would give it up.
To give up stockpiling enriched material of various grades is a concession that Iran has never before made. It would indeed make it impossible for it to create a nuclear bomb.
The U.S. however was not interested in a nuclear deal. Hours after Albusadi’s interview it joined Israel in a “pre-emptive” war on Iran.
jeremy scahill @jeremyscahill – 7:18 UTC · Feb 28, 2026
The term “preemptive” is pure propaganda. The U.S. once again used the veneer of negotiations as a cover to bomb Iran. Tehran had just offered terms that went far beyond the 2015 nuclear deal. What was preempted was diplomacy. The same propaganda tactics used in 2003 Iraq war.
Badral Abusaidi was left to expressed his disappointment:
Badr Albusaidi – بدر البوسعيدي @badralbusaidi – 12:04 UTC · Feb 28, 2026
I am dismayed. Active and serious negotiations have yet again been undermined. Neither the interests of the United States nor the cause of global peace are well served by this. And I pray for the innocents who will suffer. I urge the United States not to get sucked in further. This is not your war.
U.S. President Trump thought differently. In an 8 minutes long speech (vid) he announced several war aims like the destruction of Iran’s missiles, the destruction of its navy and to prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons it does not want. He called on the armed forces of Iran to lay down their weapons and for its people to overthrow its government.
For the Islamic Republic the war is thereby not about mere defense – but existential.
As none of Trump’s strategic objectives is likely to be achieved one might already argue that the U.S. has little chance but to lose this war.
So far the exchange of strikes has run along its predictable course.
Cont. reading: U.S.-Iran – A War Of Aggressions Which Aims Can Not Be Achieved
U.S., Israel Are Waging War On Iran
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U.S., Israel Strike Iran: Live Updates – WSJ
It will take a few days to gain a clear picture.
I expect a ‘limited’ attack until Iran starts to hit back – which it will. Then we are likely to see a full fledged U.S./Israeli air offensive. From thereon things will get murky.
U.S. Middle East Build Up Continues
U.S. preparations for an attack on Iran continue.
- On Tuesday U.S. embassy staff in Lebanon was told to leave the country.
- Additional U.S. tankers and fighter planes have landed in Israel.
- Today non-emergency U.S. embassy staff in Israel was told to leave.
- China has told its citizens to leave Iran as soon as possible.
- Britain has evacuated its embassy staff from Iran.
- U.S fighter and tanker airplanes have been removed from bases near Iran.
However
- No Notices To AirMan (NOTAMs) have been issued yet to warn of imminent danger around Iran.
- U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expect to visit Israel on Monday.
Thus the guessing of if or when an attack will happen continues.
Trump is in Zugzwang:
The administration’s initial assumption appeared straightforward: overwhelming force would compel compliance. Carrier strike groups, long-range bombers, and public warnings may have been meant less as preparation for war than as psychological pressure. Iran, facing sanctions and internal strain, was expected to conclude resistance was futile.
Instead, not surprisingly for anyone with even limited knowledge of Iran and the current situation, Tehran has drawn the opposite lesson.
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Iran’s leadership knows that conceding under pressure will only invite escalation. Does anyone doubt that giving ground now would simply lead to the next demand: missiles, proxies, enrichment, and eventually regime survival itself. America has backed Iran into an existential corner, and in that situation, intimidation loses its power.
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If Trump backs down, critics will (perhaps correctly) say the build up was a bluff. Escalate, and the administration risks entering a conflict that will expose American limits.
That is the essence of the zugzwang. Iran does not need to checkmate the United States. It merely needs to keep moving pieces until Washington runs out of viable moves.
Thus Trump’s zugzwang in Iran: TACO or an escalation where all bets are off.
Iran – U.S. Negotiators Block Progress With Unreasonable Demands
Today the third round of the current negotiations between the U.S. and Iran is taking place in Geneva. After three hours the talks were paused to allow the negotiators to communicate with their governments. They are supposed to continue later today.
Iran continues to offer reductions in its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei insists on tangible outcomes:
“Today’s discussions were very serious, and we hope that in the talks taking place tonight, we will see a continuation of the dialogue on the lifting of sanctions and nuclear issues—this time in a more operational manner, with practical proposals and executable initiatives,” Baghaei said.
Baghaei insisting on those is a sign that the conditions the U.S. delegation has offered were vague and lacking specifics.
Before today’s round started the Wall Street Journal published a list (archived) of ‘tough’ demands the U.S. is making to Iran. These are:
- dismantling its three main nuclear sites—at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan
- delivering all of its remaining enriched uranium to the U.S.
- accepting permanent restrictions with no sunset clauses
- zero enrichment, with potential allowance of low enrichment for medical purposes
In exchange for that the U.S. would offer … nothing tangible:
Cont. reading: Iran – U.S. Negotiators Block Progress With Unreasonable Demands
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-047
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
Open (Not Ukraine) Thread 2026-046
News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine …
Despite Four Weeks Of Build-Up Trump’s Choices On Iran Are Still The Same
Four week ago U.S. President Donald Trump threatened the Islamic Republic of Iran with another attack over its nuclear program.
It was a mistake because, as I explained, Iran is no easy target:
Iran however is also ready. It has increased its missile forces. It has promised to use it against U.S. positions in the Middle East and against Israel in retaliation to any attack. It has also promised to close the Strait of Hormuz. A large part of the global oil supply is flowing through it. A selective closure, which would for example allow tankers destined for China to pass, is also a possibility. But even a partial prolonged closure would suddenly increase oil and gas prices all over the world. Republican chances to win in the mid-term elections would decrease.
Major Arab U.S. allies in the Middle East have rejected to take part in any adventure against Iran. Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Qatar have explicitly stated that they will not allow U.S. operations against Iran from or through their territory.
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The arising conflict is unlikely to be as short as the recent 12 day campaign. It could easily escalate into attritional warfare. …
What Trump wants is another symbolic victory. He has started, like usual, with a gigantic threat in the hope to receive a minor concession that will allow him to chicken out. I doubt that Iran is in the mood to give him whatever he is asking for.
Since then the U.S. has beefed up its air defenses in the area and doubled the number of air-attack forces in the Middle East.
But this is still, says a U.S. military think-tank, far from enough to sustain a campaign:
The force is capable of punitive strikes on Iran and protection of U.S. allies and partners in the region. However, it lacks Marines, special operations forces (SOF) for raids or ground operations, and the logistics for an extended air campaign.
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- The current force level is comparable to that used in Operation Desert Fox, which entailed four days of long-range punitive strikes. …
- The large number of cargo aircraft (C-17s and C-5Ms) and tankers (KC-135s and KC-46As) moving to the Middle East does not indicate any deployment of ground forces. …
- U.S. forces lack special operations and ground units needed to conduct raids or operations ashore. …
- The available forces are also insufficient for regime change beyond limited targeted strikes. …
- Finally, there are not enough forces for an extended, multi-week air campaign. That would require a substantial logistical buildup, which is possible but would take additional time. …
Cont. reading: Despite Four Weeks Of Build-Up Trump’s Choices On Iran Are Still The Same
Lunatic Voice Of The Day
The prize for the most lunatic, unhinged voice of the day was awarded to Simon Tisdall’s Guardian column:
Little Marco (as Trump calls him) is confused. Trumpism is all about recreating yesterday, about fantasies of “the good old days”. Putin suffers similar delusions. The war is part of his revanchist project to make Russia great again, to rebuild the Soviet sphere. Likewise, Xi Jinping, China’s leader, is attempting his own great leap backwards, by accumulating dictatorial powers to an extent unseen since Mao Zedong.
The open-minded, freedom-loving rainbow Europe of democracy and the rule of law is a living rebuke to these lumbering Frankenstein’s retro-monsters and their hard-right emulators. They revile and fear it. Like Ukraine, it stands in their way.
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Here’s what must be done: deploy troops from a European “coalition of the willing” to secure and defend Kyiv and other unoccupied cities; Russia cannot be allowed a veto. Enforce a no-fly exclusion zone, as I have repeatedly urged. Surge defensive missiles and drones. Beach Russia’s shadow fleet. Step up covert “active measures”, including cyber and sabotage, to counter Kremlin hybrid warfare. Seize assets, expel spies, expose lies, change the narrative. Europe must demand an immediate ceasefire, followed by phased Russian withdrawals, and assume a lead role in any final settlement talks.
Short question on your plan of action, Simon. With what?
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-045
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-044
Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-044
Energy Glasshouse – Ukraine Attempts To Blackmail Hungary, Slovakia Destined To Fail
Hungary and Slovakia oppose the war in western proxy war Ukraine. Both countries have continued to receive Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline via Ukraine. Both countries oppose EU membership for Ukraine.
The acting Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski is trying to use a Russian attack in January on energy infrastructure in Ukraine, which he alleged damaged the Druzhba pipeline, to block further transfer of Russian crude oil to Hungary and Slovakia. It is an obvious attempt to blackmail those countries. In August 2025 Ukraine had tried a similar scheme after itself had damaged a Durzhba oil pumping station in Russia.
But, energy wise, Ukraine is sitting in a glasshouse. It is receiving much needed diesel fuel from Hungary and Slovakia. A large part of its electricity imports, more needed now than ever, comes from those countries.
In mid February U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Hungary and Slovakia. He greenlighted their reprisal for Ukrainian blackmail attempts and prevented the EU from intervening in the case. The situation has escalated from there.
Let’s follow the dateline of the story …
Ukraine’s Naftogaz says Russia struck its facility in western Ukraine – Reuters, Jan 27 2026
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Russia attack knocked out pipeline carrying its own oil to Europe, Ukraine says – Reuters, Feb 12 2026
Last month’s Russian attack on the Ukrainian branch of the Soviet-built Druzhba oil pipeline halted the transit of Russian oil to Eastern Europe, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on Thursday.
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Rubio visits Slovakia and Hungary to bolster ties with pro-Trump leaders – France24, Feb 15 2026
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio vowed to deepen cooperation with central Europe on Sunday as he kicked off a trip to Slovakia and Hungary, whose conservative leaders have warm ties with President Donald Trump.
In Slovakia, which, like Hungary, relies on Russian oil and gas and has uneasy relations with the rest of the EU, Rubio discussed energy and defence with Prime Minister Robert Fico and President Peter Pellegrini.
—Cont. reading: Energy Glasshouse – Ukraine Attempts To Blackmail Hungary, Slovakia Destined To Fail
Ukraine Is Exhausted But Plans For More Years Of War
The war mongers in the U.S., in the European Union and in Ukraine have decided to ditch U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace attempts and to prolong the war until he leaves office.
Today’s headlines at the Ukrainian outlet Strana include (machine translation):
From the last link:
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky instructed his closest advisers to prepare to fight for another three years.
This was stated in a podcast on Spotify by The Wall Street Journal journalist Bojan Panchevsky.
According to Panchevsky, the conversation that shocked the president’s entourage took place last Thursday.
“He said it directly. Everyone was in shock. No one, of course, wants another three years of war. Until then, they had essentially been working on a plan to call elections and referendums in late spring or early summer to put a possible agreement to the vote, whatever it might be, and see if voters would accept it. And suddenly Zelensky makes an internal 180-degree U-turn and says: all this is nonsense, we must prepare for a long war. This makes me even more skeptical, because it seems that for some reason he is no longer really in the mood for negotiations. I do not know what the reason is. I know three of his closest advisers, they didn’t know it themselves or, if they did, they didn’t tell me why he changed his position,” Panchevsky said.
In his opinion, Zelensky found unsatisfactory the current proposal of US President Donald Trump to end the war, so he decided to continue fighting.
In three years, the Trump cadence will just end.
Zelenski’s position is bolstered by various international pro-war outlets who depict Ukraine as not winning the war but also as not losing it. Their arguments are based on faulty estimates of Russian casualties and a misinterpretation of Russia economic potential.
One examples is the latest piece by Michel Kofman in Foreign Affairs:
Cont. reading: Ukraine Is Exhausted But Plans For More Years Of War
U.S. – Israel Ready To Strike At Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump has managed to maneuver himself into a position that makes a long war on Iran all but inevitable.
About two days ago I was still betting on Trump to chicken out of a war with Iran. The military buildup in the Middle East was insufficient but for a short in-out air campaign on Iran with no discernible value.
But over the last days the U.S. military has sent many more air refueling tankers, dozens of more fighter planes and – most importantly – command and control elements to the Middle East. The force is sufficient for a large air campaign that could be sustained for at least two weeks. An additional carrier strike force has entered the Mediterranean and will be positioned west of Israel by the end of the week. A second carrier strike group is deployed in the Arabian Sea.
Deploying such a large force is extremely costly. Pressure will increase quickly to use it or to stand down.
The last negotiations between The U.S. and Iran went well but ended without any results. Iran promised to come back in maybe two week with a detailed plan on how to proceed:
“We were able to reach a general agreement on a set of guiding principles, based on which we will proceed from now on, and move toward drafting a potential agreement,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state TV after talks with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in Geneva.
The two sides will each draft and exchange texts for a deal before setting a date for a third round of talks, he said, cautioning that the next stage would be “more difficult and detailed.”
Two weeks is a long time and the military clock is now ticking faster than the diplomatic one.
The U.S. military is reported to have told Trump that it will be ready to strike by this weekend:
Cont. reading: U.S. – Israel Ready To Strike At Iran
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-043
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
Open (Not Ukraine) Thread 2026-042
News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine …
Duplicate Propaganda For War On Iran
Propaganda usually works in a drip-drip-drip fashion. Small stories are launched each other day spreading the similar talking points over and over again
But today, due to some mix up, two of the major propaganda outlets, the New York Times and the Washington Post, launched very similar propaganda stories on the very same day.
Rage. Grief. Anxiety. The New Mood in Iran. – NY Times
Popular anger burns in Iran after crackdown, as Trump turns up pressure – Washington Post
 The first story ( archived), was written in New York. The second story ( archived), was reported from Dubai.
The stories are about the aftermath of the recent CIA sponsored riots in Iran.
Both stories quote the same U.S. government financed Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) in Fairfax, VA, with unverifiable numbers of alleged casualties.
Cont. reading: Duplicate Propaganda For War On Iran
U.S. Calls For New Colonial Era
In a speech held at the Munich Security Conference Secretary of State Marco Rubio called for a renewal of the colonial age:
In a perfect world, all of these problems and more would be solved by diplomats and strongly worded resolutions. But we do not live in a perfect world, and we cannot continue to allow those who blatantly and openly threaten our citizens and endanger our global stability to shield themselves behind abstractions of international law which they themselves routinely violate.
This is the path that President Trump and the United States has embarked upon. It is the path we ask you here in Europe to join us on. It is a path we have walked together before and hope to walk together again. For five centuries, before the end of the Second World War, the West had been expanding – its missionaries, its pilgrims, its soldiers, its explorers pouring out from its shores to cross oceans, settle new continents, build vast empires extending out across the globe.
But in 1945, for the first time since the age of Columbus, it was contracting. Europe was in ruins. Half of it lived behind an Iron Curtain and the rest looked like it would soon follow. The great Western empires had entered into terminal decline, accelerated by godless communist revolutions and by anti-colonial uprisings that would transform the world and drape the red hammer and sickle across vast swaths of the map in the years to come.
Against that backdrop, then, as now, many came to believe that the West’s age of dominance had come to an end and that our future was destined to be a faint and feeble echo of our past. But together, our predecessors recognized that decline was a choice, and it was a choice they refused to make. This is what we did together once before, and this is what President Trump and the United States want to do again now, together with you.
Arnaud Bertrand summarizes:
The man literally laments the outcome of WW2 because it marked the end of the era during which “the West had been expanding”, a “path” he “hopes [the US and Europe] walk together again.”
And just to ensure you’re clear about what he means: he wants to restore the building of “vast empires extending across the globe” and blames “anti-colonial uprisings” for what they did to “the great Western empires.”
He also says that “we cannot continue” to allow “abstractions of international law” get in the way of US interests.
Basically the man is openly saying that the whole post-colonial order was a mistake and he’s calling on Europe to share the spoils of building a new one.
Some of the dimwits in the room did applaud that revisionist nonsense.
Bertrand cautiones:
Cont. reading: U.S. Calls For New Colonial Era
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-041
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-040
Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-040
Poison Dart Frogs Killer
Believe Us Media is spreading another Skripal affair like story to again tell its audience to hate Russia (archived):
Aleksei A. Navalny, the Russian opposition leader who died in prison two years ago, was most likely poisoned by a toxin found in a South American frog, the Foreign Ministries of Britain, France, Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands said on Saturday in a joint statement.
Samples taken from Mr. Navalny’s body showed the presence of a toxic substance, epibatidine, the statement said.
“Epibatidine is a toxin found in poison dart frogs in South America. It is not found naturally in Russia,” the statement said.
Well informed sources contacted Moon of Alabama to provide it with an exclusive picture of the FSB killer suspected of committing the crime.
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