I can only speculate why Putin continues to try to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. But he does and at least some of us see it. 

Posted by: Maverick | Jan 22 2026 15:25 utc | 4

Posted by: too scents | Jan 22 2026 15:28 utc | 5
 
It is not clear to me if you understand the meaning of the word projection. 

Posted by: Maverick | Jan 22 2026 15:31 utc | 6

My take is Russia is a) tired of all the “protecting Ukr is protecting Europe & democracy” thing and simultaneously b) kind of content that the SMO has dragged so many billions out of the western economies. So, they start the beginning of the end. Not because they want to make the Ukr population so miserable but because they realize that’s the only possible end.
 
Whether – and/or when – the European leaders realize what’s going on, remains to be seen.

Posted by: Avtonom | Jan 22 2026 15:35 utc | 8

 Whether – and/or when – the European leaders realize what’s going on, remains to be seen.
Posted by: Avtonom | Jan 22 2026 15:35 utc | 8

 
Rutte and Stubb claim Ukraine is winning. Obviously they say all sorts of things – Stubb also said EU can defend itself without America only to refute he claiming it a few minutes later.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 22 2026 15:38 utc | 10

@ guest from franconia  seems to be having problems and is seeking direction from moa, lol.. 

Posted by: james | Jan 22 2026 15:47 utc | 12

French navy just seized a tanker transporting russian oil off the Spanish Mediterranean coast.

Posted by: robin | Jan 22 2026 15:51 utc | 14

Zelensky calls out EU hypocrisy about respecting Greenland sovereignty by not doing more to defend it from a Russian or Chinese invasion.

Posted by: Ludovic | Jan 22 2026 15:55 utc | 16

The US economy is failing. ukraine is a freezing wreck and there is no hope for a NATO victory. Pervert Trump makes the US look like an evil, violent buffoon on an international stage. Right wing war mongering imperialist trolls pop up everywhere to desperately distract anyone who wanders by from the ugly truth. 

Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Jan 22 2026 15:59 utc | 18

This is impossible now: DTEK responds to Kyiv residents’ calls to return to normal power outage schedules

At the moment, Kyiv is unable to resume electricity supply to consumers according to the usual schedules. Due to the consequences of the massive strikes of the aggressor country, the russian federation, a deep emergency mode continues to operate in the capital.
 
This is stated in a message that DTEK published in Threads on Wednesday, January 21.
 
The post was probably a response to numerous comments from Kyiv residents in the network, who demand that the power company return the power outage schedules to the capital.
 
“Now it won’t work. Although the critical infrastructure has been powered up, the city’s power system is still in a deep emergency mode. There is not enough electricity to meet the schedules,” DTEK said.
 
At the moment, the electricity supply is carried out manually. For this reason, blackouts are protracted.
 
 
The company also emphasized that what is happening in Ukraine, in particular in Kyiv, has never happened anywhere else in the world.
 
“Zero days without power outages for a month in a row. Power engineers are doing historic work to get us back on schedule,” the post says.
 
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, on January 21, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that as of the morning, more than half of Kyiv had been without electricity. There had been no heating in about 4,000 apartment buildings.
 
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said in an interview with The Times that since the beginning of January, about 600,000 people have left the capital because of the consequences of russian strikes on the energy sector.

https://ukranews.com/en/news/1129950-this-is-impossible-now-dtek-responds-to-kyiv-residents-calls-to-return-to-normal-power-outage

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 22 2026 16:01 utc | 20

Posted by: Exile | Jan 22 2026 15:59 utc | 19
 
Let’s see what that looks like after a few German bases and industrial facilities get levelled. 

Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Jan 22 2026 16:07 utc | 22

This is How The History of Now is Written With A Hammer (& vid)
 
https://johnhelmer.net/this-is-how-the-history-of-now-is-written-with-a-hammer/
 
“In all large criminal gangs – racketeer influenced and corrupt organizations (RICO) as they are termed in US law – There is always the mouth that talks tough; the pocket which collects the money; the gun that’s the enforcer. The mouth is the most expendable so long as the pocket keeps full and the gun stays loaded.
 
In President Donald Trump’s enterprise, he is the first; Steve Witkoff is the second; Stephen Miller is the third.
 
On the eve of Witkoff’s new meeting with President Vladimir Putin today (January 22), the Kremlin theory is, as it was in the talks with Witkoff last year, that Putin is moving Trump the mouth through Witkoff the pocket.
 
It has been the Iranian experience that this is a miscalculation – that the gun moves the mouth more directly, more often than the pocket.
 
In the podcast aired from Crimea with Regis Tremblay and Dimitri Lascaris on Tuesday evening, the aim is to predict the future form the Moscow perspective while anticipating the worst from the Montreal viewpoint.
 
It is also explained why, in order to keep the long war going against Russia, Denmark and the NATO allies will come to terms which will also save Trump the cost of bribing the Greenlanders for the deal.
 
This is how history is being written with the hammer…”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jan 22 2026 16:08 utc | 24

Any ukrainian with commen sence will be heading west for the border right now.  Before the rush starts. If the west wont come to ukraine,   ukranians will go to the west, land of shiney things, and influencers on the net.
Berlin, Paris , i recomend london and england generaily , we’ll give you a nice house or luxury hotel accomadation. Free money,  an an plenty of local girls.
 
We already have a lot of ukraians here at the momment none of them will ever go back, they say.
 
Karma, lap it up.

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 22 2026 16:11 utc | 26

Russia continues to highlight a big obstacle to any prospect of peace agreements being signed:

[…] who will sign any agreement with Russia and the United States on behalf of the Ukrainian state?
 
Let’s start with Zelenskyy, who hasn’t been president of Ukraine according to his own country’s constitution for two years now. It doesn’t matter that he’s recognized as such in the West, other countries, even the UN administration. The main thing is that he’s illegitimate for the Russian leadership, as has been stated repeatedly.

~~~

So, the Ukrainian delegation includes Secretary of the National Security Council (NSDC) Umerov, who could be subject to an anti-corruption investigation at any moment for his machinations while serving as Minister of Defense. The NSDC is a purely advisory body to the head of state (former President Zelenskyy) without any direct legal authority.
 
Zelenskyy’s head of his office, Budanov*, has absolutely no legal authority, and he’s also on Rosfinmonitoring’s list of terrorists and extremists. In our country, he faces only one fate: trial and prison, if he survives.
 
Arakhamia remains, leading the Servant of the People faction, which is still on the verge of collapse, in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. Outside the walls of parliament, his powers, already modest, become negligible.
 
Even if this entire gang, including the usurper Zelensky, reaches an agreement with Washington and signs documents, it would be legally easy to not only challenge such agreements, but even violate them without significant consequences.

https://en.topwar.ru/276774-ft-ssha-ne-podpishut-soglashenie-s-ukrainoj-do-vyjasnenija-pozicii-moskvy.html

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 22 2026 16:17 utc | 28

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 22 2026 16:11 utc | 26
 
You can’t get out unless you bribe someone. They will shoot you. 

Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Jan 22 2026 16:20 utc | 30

Another 750kV station near Kiev was attacked by Geran-3 drones (the jet engine variant).
 
https://x.com/AMK_Mapping_/status/2014353986573553853

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 22 2026 16:25 utc | 32

 The US nightmare: Russia’s Iskander smashes US Patriots in Ukraine Four years of Russia-West missile contest have pushed one question to the front: how fast the US can replace its air defense under constant strikes.
 
The answer depends on two factors:  US industry and political choices •
 
 
Air defense is treated as a BUSINESS model, not a wartime necessity • Patriot was designed for PEACETIME readiness and controlled conditions • Attrition breaks the math: ~$1B per battery, interceptor stocks worth HUNDREDS of millions •
 
 
Losses CAN’T be replaced at the pace REAL combat demands  Russian strike adaptation • US-made systems became the highest-value targets • Strike density increased accordingly • Weapon mixes expanded to OVERWHELM and EXHAUST defenses The outcome is stark: Most US air-defense systems lost in Ukraine were destroyed not by drones or rockets, but by Iskander and Kinzhal missiles.
 
 
For the first time in US history, flagship air-defense systems are being ELIMINATED AT SCALE in real combat. Ukraine conflict has exposed the combined industrial, military, and political limits of the US model. Can the US actually adapt under this kind of pressure, and if so, what would have to change first?

https://x.com/NewRulesGeo/status/2014001911104688185

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 22 2026 16:28 utc | 34

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 22 2026 16:30 utc | 35
 
Very possible. If I’m a ukrainian soldier right now, I’m looking for the very first opportunity to surrender. 

Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Jan 22 2026 16:35 utc | 36

Germany is reportedly starting to build gas power plants. They have only one source of gas right now, US LNG which may be quite expensive and unreliable.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 22 2026 16:43 utc | 38

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 22 2026 16:44 utc | 39
 
Certainly logical for a retreating army to take out bridges. The Russians might take out a bridge to trap ukrainian forces, though. 

Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Jan 22 2026 16:49 utc | 40

ukraine is a freezing wreck and there is no hope for a NATO victory. 
Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Jan 22 2026 15:59 utc | 18
The war could not be going better for “NATO”. An endless quagmire for Russia, sucking up Russian resources and attention while Russia’s allies get rolled up everywhere else. Venezuela, Iran, Syria, Africa. The way things are going, Russia could very well end up “winning” in Ukraine and yet suffer a collapse worse than the USSR.
Trump’s annexation of Greenland shows what a non-threat the US considers Russia at this point.

Posted by: catdog | Jan 22 2026 16:50 utc | 42

If the blackouts get any worse Ukrenergo may have to rebrand as Ukrenegro.

Posted by: Truthsayer | Jan 22 2026 16:51 utc | 44

Saint jimmy @  40
Disagree ,  prisoners  are a liabilty and would slow and take up available resourses. Bettter to encourage a rout. That would hav a desired pyscholical effect on communeities  they past heading west.
 
A bit like herding cattle, get the tail end of the hered moveing the one’s at the front will move even if they dont know the threat from behind

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 22 2026 16:58 utc | 46

Within a month, more than 1,000 Ukrainians were hospitalized due to hypothermia and frostbite

In the period from December 20 to January 18, 1103 Ukrainians applied for emergency medical care due to frostbite and hypothermia. Of these, 1,016 patients were hospitalized
 

This was reported by the Ministry of Health, reports RegioNews .
 
The ministry notes that now the situation with cold injuries in Ukraine is controlled, but it may worsen with a strong cold snap or worsening weather conditions.
 
During this period, emergency services processed 544,404 calls and made 364,849 trips, an average of more than 18,000 per day.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/ukraine/1769083300-uprodovzh-misyatsya-ponad-1000-ukrayintsiv-potrapili-do-likaren-cherez-pereoholodzhennya-ta-obmorozhennya (via translation add-on.)

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 22 2026 17:03 utc | 48

Posted by: c1ue | Jan 22 2026 16:50 utc | 41
Yes, you are correct that the attrition strategy minimizes the risk for a the strong power in a conflict against a weaker power. But the attrition strategy was not adopted until after the Ukrainian summer 2022 offensives. By that time, it should have been very obvious how far the west was willing to go in support of Ukraine, and how durable Ukraine is. It has been years now- why hasn’t Russian leadership switched to a winning strategy? You can whine about Strelkov but he was right, and if Russian leadership had listened to him and mobilized more and sooner, Kherson and Kharkov would be in Russian hands.

Posted by: catdog | Jan 22 2026 17:05 utc | 50

The French, German, UK and other nation militaries are tiny================not quite sccurate – while the active duty military in the EU is indeed tiny – the ready reserve is substantial. For example, Germany alone has around 1,000,000 in its ready reserve.    
Posted by: Exile | Jan 22 2026 15:59 utc | 19..
Since when has Germany almost stopped training new soldiers (conscription suspended)?
Where are these reservists supposed to come from?
Most of the really well-trained soldiers from back then are probably in their late 50s today. Go to a reservist meeting sometime; you’d think you were at a retiree event. They have absolutely no clue about current technology.
And new volunteers and former volunteer soldiers aren’t prepared for drone warfare, let alone trained in it.
Just like drones aren’t a training topic to this day, by whom, when the highest-ranking officers are still trained according to Wehrmacht strategies. Even in the USA, about 75% of all active officers have never been in combat, let alone in modern drone warfare where trenches no longer offer protection. Combat units consist of 3 to 4 soldiers instead of platoons or companies.

Posted by: Genesis | Jan 22 2026 17:09 utc | 52

the wise ones will flee East towards Mother Russia.
 
1/2 of Ukrainians who have left the place since 2014 went east

Posted by: exile | Jan 22 2026 17:19 utc | 54

Zelensky talked to Trump in Davos: “Security agreement for Ukraine has been completed. the agreement can now be signed” (?????????????????????????????????????)
 
Don’t believe a word of it. Zelensky can make agreements until he is dead. IF (a very big IF) there is an agreement then did Russia agree with that and is Russia willing to sign it ? My current bet is that Russia won’t sign anything before its goals are met.

Posted by: WMG | Jan 22 2026 17:22 utc | 56

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 22 2026 17:13 utc | 53
 
They’ll be appearing here all week. 

Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Jan 22 2026 17:25 utc | 58

Posted by: c1ue | Jan 22 2026 16:50 utc | 41
 
Yes, your points about the necessity of a prudent approach are absolutely valid. I mentioned the international opinion as factor, but all that was really only of significance until Gaza etc. Today, the US is hated so much in BRICS world, and the western duplicity is recognized by everyone who could be of importance to Russia. Today, the global south is not looking for moderation, they are looking for someone to finally stand up to the Überbully USA. They are looking for a palpable victory. Not trade surplus or GDP growth or alternative payment systems. The whole world is eager to see the US put into place. Everyone is waiting for a signal.
Minimizing losses is exactly what motivates the idea to take down the bridges. The moment those bridges are gone (and subsequently the dams) the war is over. No more deaths. Of course, it would have to be done in two stages to give everyone, including the military, time to move to a preferred side of the river.
 
The moment for Ukraine to take down those bridges themselves is decades away. The frontline still moves at snail pace. For years people have fantasized about the imminent collapse of the Ukraine military. But it has infinite money and still lots of weapons, including stuff that destroys Russian ships and infrastructure. If people are honst with themselves, they believed that Ukraine would be finished after the fall of Bakhmut. But here we are, years later, young guys dying.
So the question remains open, at least to me: why? Why not end all this today?

Posted by: Hamburger | Jan 22 2026 17:33 utc | 60

Hamburger.
At the very very begining of this conflict against Russia a person i know well told me (bragged) “Russia wont last 3 months” . I raised one eyebrow,  he stuttered and said ..  “we’v got the eurofighter,”  i speak to him every week never about Ukraine.  I dont have the hart to remind him of his error .
 
Your glass, hamburger is half empty not half full,   sorry.

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 22 2026 17:43 utc | 62

Posted by: Exile | Jan 22 2026 15:59 utc | 19
 
As reported by the Bundestag:
Germany aims to build a reserve of around 200,000 by 2035, complementing an active force of over 260,000.
 
Coming up short on your 1.000.000 man army – it is not 1941 you know – additionally EU militaries as a part of NATO, are dependent on US logistics.
 
Just my €0.02…

Posted by: Richard Head | Jan 22 2026 17:47 utc | 64

And  i’l just add…..
No doubt zelensky thought exactly the same as the person i mention.
 
Both becouse they were lied to by the westetn leaders.
 
Moral of the tale is…
If you want to be loyal to your own country, oppose your lying curupt leaders.

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 22 2026 17:50 utc | 66

None of us here have access to their information inputs that they base their calculations on, so who are we to judge whether it is right or wrong? 
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 22 2026 17:49 utc | 64
Their failure to win the war is a pretty strong metric. I have a contractor working on my new house right now. He put up some new walls in a day’s work. I wasn’t there supervising him. I don’t know what “inputs he bases his calculations on”. But I know that the wall is done. Now, it took him four years, and the wall still wasn’t done, would you say that he’s doing a good job?

Posted by: catdog | Jan 22 2026 17:56 utc | 68

Catdog @  62
 
Honestly ?
 
Apart from the odd natral momment of impatients ,  i always had total  faith in the great Vladimir Putin. Slow or fast it dosent matter.
 
You should be thankfull to him and only him. That the world was’nt so far subjected to a devestating nucular war.
 
Whilst at any time during the last 4 years,  the west could  of,  should of packed their shit up and gone home.  Yes ?

Posted by: Mark2 | Jan 22 2026 18:01 utc | 70

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 22 2026 16:17 utc | 28

 
Interesting article. Lucid. In the commentary field I particulary noticed this:
 

Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Libya have been reduced to rubble, and no one has any plans for their restoration.

 
So true. All those attempts to extract hundreds of millions from Russia for a restoration that never is going to happen. Or, if it happens, it will be on Russia’s terms and will be ridiculed by the West, like Mariupol.

Posted by: Avtonom | Jan 22 2026 18:05 utc | 72

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 22 2026 17:58 utc | 68
 
🙂 They couldn’t afford some people. 

Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Jan 22 2026 18:17 utc | 74

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 22 2026 18:04 utc | 70
 
Thanks – you have saved a few thousand of my pixels – if I can call ‘b’s pixels mine 😳.

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Jan 22 2026 18:22 utc | 76

@ Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 22 2026 18:04 utc | 71
 
Don’t be so hard on catdog. I imagine he’s frustrated by Russia’s slow, methodical elimination of NATO’s ability to wage all but nuclear war and — maybe — long-distance bombing  campaigns. 😁
The more Russia wins, the more shrill such types become.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 22 2026 18:25 utc | 78

“Comprehension fail. Bone up on your English grammar.”
This coming from a guy named “Jams”.

Posted by: catdog | Jan 22 2026 18:27 utc | 80

The more Russia wins, the more shrill such types become.
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 22 2026 18:25 utc | 77
That tracks, since I’m not shrill at all.

Posted by: catdog | Jan 22 2026 18:29 utc | 82

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 22 2026 18:29 utc | 80
“The first U.S. sale of Venezuelan oil, valued at approximately $500 million, was completed last week, a U.S. official told CBS News.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-seizes-seventh-venezuelan-linked-oil-tanker-caribbean/

Posted by: catdog | Jan 22 2026 18:31 utc | 84

Posted by: catdog | Jan 22 2026 18:31 utc | 83
 
#####
 
So, unrelated to Maduro and just regular old piracy.
 
My point stands. Trump has accomplished NOTHING positive for America this year.
 
Aren’t those tariffs grand? Now Americans don’t have to pay income tax. It is great how the Inuit of Greenland will be getting free healthcare and education… 😂😂😂
 
But do continue. This is how hegemony unravels.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 22 2026 18:34 utc | 86

Are “US Officials” a valid source?
 
I get it, people don’t like certain narratives. I am not immune to that, but it is really grasping at straws to believe anything the WH says.
 
Remember when Trump called Modi, except Modi never talked to him?
 
Remember when the DOJ released the Epstein Files, except it was stuff already in the public domain years ago?
 
Remember when Trump said he would do any of the things he TACO’d over?
 
Remember when the US made it government policy that Taiwan was a part of China, and supplied weapons to Taiwan anyway?
 
I do.
 
The ROW does.
 
“Agreement incapable” is not a meme.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 22 2026 18:42 utc | 88

This coming from a guy named “Jams”.
 
Posted by: catdog | Jan 22 2026 18:27 utc | 80

 
I don’t know whether to be amused or alarmed that you seem to think this is an argument.

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 22 2026 18:44 utc | 90

On the other hand, they’ll need some home improvement in Ukraine when it’s all over. 

Posted by: Avtonom | Jan 22 2026 18:54 utc | 92

Posted by: scc | Jan 22 2026 18:44 utc | 90
“Nobody sold Ukraine to Russia”
I agree with you. The US can buy whatever it wants. And Russia can’t. The US can even buy whatever it wants with Russia’s own money: “Russia is discussing with the US the use of frozen Russian assets to rebuild territories damaged during the fighting following the conclusion of a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine, – Putin said”
 

Posted by: catdog | Jan 22 2026 18:58 utc | 94

@ Avtonom | Jan 22 2026 18:54 utc | 91
 
Perhaps @ catdog will offer his supervisory skills, he seems to like getting things done in a ruddy blush…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 22 2026 18:58 utc | 96

Although it looks like it’s a bit more than just home improvements:

Power outage schedules will disappear only in 2-3 years – Director of the Energy Research Center

In Ukraine, emergency power outages last for almost two weeks, and many regions remain without a stable electricity supply schedule.
 

This forecast was provided by the director of the Center for Energy Research Alexander Kharchenko, reports RegioNews .
 
He explains that the return of stable schedules in Kiev is expected no earlier than in 5-7 days, while the full completion of schedules across the country may take 2-3 years.
 
The reason for the instability is damage to local generation capacities and distribution networks, which is why the capital now receives electricity completely from outside. Because of this, consumption in homes has become unpredictable: previous schedules no longer work, and consumption statistics need to be recalculated in order to make new electricity supply plans.
 
The government and energy companies are trying to stabilize the situation. At the same time, gas-piston installations are being launched, critical infrastructure is being restored, and electricity distribution is being optimized in metropolitan areas.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/ukraine/1769096480-grafiki-vidklyuchen-svitla-zniknut-tilki-cherez-2-3-roki-direktor-tsentru-doslidzhen-energetiki (via translation add-on.)

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 22 2026 19:04 utc | 98

Posted by: Paranaense | Jan 22 2026 18:58 utc | 94
 
I have not seen that movie. I wonder how many they have shot or arrested…

Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Jan 22 2026 19:08 utc | 100