Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 8, 2026
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-008

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

Even though the European Commission has published the plans for raising the 90b in various bond tranches and periods….is really really anyone going to buy into these?

Posted by: Jo | Jan 9 2026 18:24 utc | 201

Remote Page…
Ultimately Ukraine is simply fighting to continue existing as an independent country that can eventually join the EU and gain security guarantee’s through European partners…
 
 
But z “final answer” chose to reject the April2022 Draft Peace Agreement which 30 pages had signatures on from his team…

Posted by: Jo | Jan 9 2026 18:38 utc | 202

This time the media reaction is a lot faster. policy seems to have been set:
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/russland-oreschnik-ukraine-100.html
“workshop” bombed with training amunition. haha.

Posted by: MAKK | Jan 9 2026 19:00 utc | 204

If it really was a giant underground gas storage facility that was hit then it doesn’t seem like something that anyone will be able to hide no matter what the MSM says.
 
Has anyone checked that NASA space-based heat/fire surveillance map thing? Maybe censored. (This computer I use is probably not up to the task, it can barely browse).
 
What I have seen of Russian official comments has not gone into much detail on the targets and left out the specifics; they’re leaving plenty of rope for the MSM to trap themselves in.
 

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 9 2026 19:28 utc | 205

In terms of FPV usage, both sides are estimated to deploy around 4-5k daily sorties of FPV drones. Both armies continue to scale their production and use of them, but the difference is a matter of single digit %, it is not clear that either side is having a decisive advantage in overall production. Both sides produced around 2.5-3 millions FPV drones in 2025, and both are aiming to double that number in 2026. Largely on the battlefield it comes down to a choice of concentration of forces.

Posted by: Remote Page | Jan 9 2026 20:43 utc | 206

The purple glow in the sky near Lvov indicates that the entire underground gas storage facility is now alight.  And with it 30% of all EU gas storage capacity.  Please buy gas futures…………
Volo once again over played his hand in his UK RN sponsored assassination attempt on VVP.
Expect more Hazel strikes in the near future!
Targets please!

Posted by: tobias cole | Jan 9 2026 21:15 utc | 207

@ Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 9 2026 19:28 utc | 214
 
I don’t think we will be allowed to see any damage, indeed the earlier video clips of the ‘arrival’ that were available are now being blocked by various channels, though they are still up at the Simplicius Substack. Similar thing happened at Yuzhmash, early eye-witness reports and videos were quickly suppressed, with no satellite overflight videos or images ever making it into the public domain.
 
From some reason the PTB really don’t want information about the true capabilities of Oreshnik to be widely known.
 
Wonder what they are scared of? Surely it would be something to use to reinforce the “Putin man bad” propaganda, but no, they back away from that approach.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2026 21:20 utc | 208

Nobody Special 205 – thank you for this post.  Yes this is an existential war against the forces of evil…….evil emobodied in the form of Volo, Biden, Nuland, Blinkenskyy, Yermak, Budanov, Freeland, Sir Keir, Macron, Merz and company.  Atheistic fascists all, godless advocates for pure evil.
This is the group that has targeted Orthodox Christians murder and destruction.  Orthodox Churches dynamited, shrine desecrated, treasuries raided.
St. Sava save us!

Posted by: tobias cole | Jan 9 2026 21:24 utc | 209

Counted at least six strikes from the Hazel on the Lvov gas storage facility……….

Posted by: tobias cole | Jan 9 2026 21:25 utc | 210

Addendum: I’ve been having a look at the NASA FIRMS (Fire Information for Resource Management Service) website and it raise more questions than it answers; there is not one single hotspot across the entirety of Ukraine or Western Russia. It also shows a few puffs of high-level summer-type cloud which, considering the snowfall blanketing much of Europe in the last few days, doesn’t suggest the satellites have overflown recently.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2026 21:28 utc | 211

NATO membership is still envisioned ;Article 23 NATO Summit of Bucharest 2008 is still in force,you can look it up right now on the NATO website.

Posted by: George Kennan disciple | Jan 9 2026 21:37 utc | 212

Posted by: Nobody Special | Jan 9 2026 18:02 utc | 205
 
Why don’t you take your religious lunacy and FO to somewhere where people care about it?
 
There is ZERO evidence for the existence of a “Lord”, otherwise known’ as The Gaseous Vertebrate Up In The Sky’

Posted by: acementhead | Jan 9 2026 23:19 utc | 213

Posted by: tobias cole | Jan 9 2026 21:15 utc | 216
 
All these EU ventures are and have been bullish for LNG and tanker shipping companies, for sure.

Posted by: unimperator | Jan 9 2026 23:21 utc | 214

What stops Ukrainians from rebelling? 
Posted by: Fredrick | Jan 9 2026 18:20 utc | 209
 
Answer: At least the total destruction of their lives right here right now, and quite likely death right here right now.
 
How many people rebelled against the Covid crime against humanity? The vast majority of people can simply not afford to rebel at all. ‘They’ won, we lost.
 

Posted by: acementhead | Jan 9 2026 23:30 utc | 215

‘They’ won, we lost. 
Posted by: acementhead | Jan 9 2026 23:30 utc | 224
 
 I was around in the days of Haight Ashbury and draft card burning.
The night Bush Senior started dropping bombs on Iraq I started to tear up.
 
 That’s was the moment It became clear. We Lost.

Posted by: arby | Jan 9 2026 23:41 utc | 216

 ho ho ho– 
 
Kyle Rittenhouse – who shot three people during unrest in Kenosha, Wisconsin – offered to travel to Minnesota amid unrest after ICE fatally shot a woman. 

Posted by: arby | Jan 10 2026 0:03 utc | 217

What’s your point? The primary objective of Ukraine is to continue existing as an independent country where they can be free to integrate with the EU.
 
Of course Ukraine would also like to join NATO since this is the best way to guarantee it’s security from future Russian aggression.

Posted by: Remote Page | Jan 10 2026 0:14 utc | 218

Remote Page | Jan 10 2026 0:14 utc | 227
*** Of course Ukraine would also like to join NATO since this is the best way to guarantee it’s security from future Russian aggression. ***
 
 
But what would guarantee its security against American aggression?
 

Posted by: Cynic | Jan 10 2026 0:59 utc | 219

The primary objective of Ukraine is to continue existing as an independent country where they can be free to integrate with the EU.
remote planet
 
 If that is all they wanted then why did they start killing Russian Speaking Ukranians and banning their language?

Posted by: arby | Jan 10 2026 1:02 utc | 220

Also IIRC Putin said that Russia did not care if Ukraine joined the EU. 
 
NATO was a no no for blatantly obvious reasons.

Posted by: arby | Jan 10 2026 1:06 utc | 221

The Russians don’t want NATO in Ukraine,just as the US didn’t want Soviet missile bases in Cuba in 1962.
 
Ukraine stopped being an independant country in 2004 when USAID,The NED,Freedom House ,The George Soros Foundation etc. started pouring money into Ukraine to foment Coup d’états.
 
Forced conscription,the Ukrainians hate it,it can’t last,Ukraine is a NATO sacrifice.
 
You say “future Russian aggression” if NATO had not have wanted to move into Ukraine,then Ukraine would be in peace.
 
I read books on history and Geopolitics,if you want to reduce it all to Putin wants Europe,then I’m not interested in discussing it.
 
Are you American? do you know what the Monroe Doctrine is ?
 
it’s alive and well,so be it,rules for thee but not for me.Russia has security concerns too.
 
I can’t stand the Normie viewpoint that it’s all just Putins Russia’s agression.
 
If you’re interested in the big picture,every war has a prelude, 30 million views,this guy explains why Ukraine is NATO’s fault.
https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4

Posted by: George Kennan disciple | Jan 10 2026 1:07 utc | 222

“All of these ‘rapid advancements’ that you mention still amount to taking only 0.8% of Ukraine in 2025. That’s not very much at all, and basically allows Ukraine plenty of time to fortify the rear to further make Russian advances slow.”
Posted by: Remote Page (Anonymous) | Jan 9 2026 18:03 utc | 206
 
 
This analysis is only relevant if Russia’s goals include taking all of Ukraine, which they certainly do not. They don’t even want Odessa. The Donbass region is the main objective and has almost been secured. Once Kramtorsk/Slovyansk are taken, probably another year, then Ukraine will likely cut a deal, or at least accept the peace deal Russia imposes on it.

Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2026 2:10 utc | 223

Of course Ukraine would also like to join NATO since this is the best way to guarantee it’s security from future Russian aggression.
Posted by: Remote Page | Jan 10 2026 0:14 utc | 227
 
No, it’s not. The best way for Ukraine to guarantee its security from future Russian aggression is to join the CSTO.

Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2026 2:15 utc | 224

Why don’t you take your religious lunacy and FO to somewhere where people care about it? There is ZERO evidence for the existence of a “Lord”, otherwise known’ as The Gaseous Vertebrate Up In The Sky’
Posted by: acementhead | Jan 9 2026 23:19 utc | 222
 
One might say the same for you. I didn’t know you were the arbiter of this blog; B might be surprised. If you don’t like what he says, you are free to ignore it. Otherwise, it seems you protest too loudly.

Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2026 2:19 utc | 225

Lmao, Soros, CIA, Colour Revolutions, you name it. You know millions of Ukranians protested in 2014 and 2004 right? Also Belarus would have overthrown it’s dictator if Russia didn’t send it its police forces to repress the population in 2018. Is it any wonder that people don’t want to live under the kleptocratic pro-Russian regimes but would rather join Europe?
 
So Russia wants to play a great power and have a sphere of influence, but Russia is only 1.8% of the global economy while the EU is 19% of the global economy. It has 4 times as any people and 10 times as much money. The only way Russia can maintain its sphere of influence is political repression and military aggression, because its economy is ultimately too small. So they tried to do it with the army, but it turns out they aren’t strong enough militarily either, hence we are not heading into the 5th year of their failed invasion.
 
Guess what, Ukraine and EU doesn’t want Russia in Ukraine either. Maybe as a a bloc that is literally 10 times richer it should actually have a bigger sphere of influence than Russia, which is ultimately a declining regional power at best. This is also what you see. Ukraine, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, all the former Russian satalite states are drifting away and Russia simply isn’t strong enough to stop this process.
 
Also, this security argument is stupid on its face. Russia has enough nuclear weapons to ensure its territorial integrity. It could be safe and rich, selling resources to Europe and China. Europe was in a long process of disarnament ffs, and Russia singlehandedly reversed that trend and now the EU has a miltiary budget that is three times larger than Russia. Great job Putin.
 
TLDR: Russia started a war to maintain its sphere of influence because it is too economically to keep countries aligned with it, and now it is discovering that it is also too weak militarily. It is a declining power that doesn’t deserve the sphere of influence that it claims and that is what this war has become about. Once it ends up not being able to force Ukranian capitulation it will have to settle for the 20-22% that it conquered, the rest will join the EU, and Russia will have to deal with the disaster of an economy afterwards. FAFO.

Posted by: Remote Page | Jan 10 2026 2:34 utc | 226

Ref. Remote Page
You are so ignorant, yet full of yourself – been literally swimming in the Kool-Aid – that you are a waste of space on this forum.
Thankfully I can exclude your posts from my view – just inflated hot air, that contribute nothing. To try and correct you is time I would never get back.
Don’t let facts get in your way, and jog on tosser…

Posted by: Richard Hrad | Jan 10 2026 6:51 utc | 227

 Russia wants to play a great power and have a sphere of influence, but Russia is only 1.8% of the global economy while the EU is 19% of the global economy. 
Posted by: Remote Page (Clown) | Jan 10 2026 2:34 utc | 235
 
Russia has 4,800 nuclear weapons. It is a great power with a sphere of influence. ‘Nuff said. 

Posted by: James M. | Jan 10 2026 8:40 utc | 228

In regards to the economy, you bring data to the conversation, however you make no analysis on what that data means, or why the data is like it is.
Yes, production is lower YoY, the GDP growth is slowing down as well, but why is that? What are the government’s actions in regards to the economy, and what are their impacts, that’s the key question that you seemingly choose to ignore.

Why the economy is flatlining despite the government literally going into debt doing what is in effect fiscal stimulus.

Russia’s government spending has been frozen since Q4 2024, which accounting for inflation, effectively means they are lowering the stimulus to the economy. That joined together by the high interest rates, which have just recently been going down, means that the Russian government has been purposefully cooling down the economy. The corporate tax rate increase is also another tool used to cool down the economy.
In that context, it is clear that there are plenty of signs showing that the Russian government is in fact directing their economy down this path.

Also consider what the ‘controlled slowdown’ is having the effect of still producing an inflation rate which in reality is probably 20%+ and an interest rate of 16%. This is one of the biggest stagflation events we will see in modern history.

This is kind of hilarious honestly. You do realize that a >20 % inflation rate together with an interest rate of 16 % would mean that the government is basically lowering their real debt by selling bonds?
How can you argue that the high interest rates are a problem for the government’s ability to pay the debt, while at the same time believing that inflation is basically cutting the real value of the debt? How does that make any sense?

All of these ‘rapid advancements’ that you mention still amount to taking only 0.8% of Ukraine in 2025.

Real cope is hiding behind a fraction, while ignoring the underlying trend that is developing. You affirmed that Ukrainians were able to stabilize the frontline, but the examples i provided prove that they are in fact not able to do that in many situations.

At the same time we have basically not seen an increase in the numbers of drones or missiles used in attacks, which basically high their peak/plateau since the summer as well.

Yes, the number of drones used in Russian attacks seem to have plateaued, but it has plateaued at a number way higher than what Ukraine can muster, which confirms that Russia is not pear to Ukraine in this aspect, but far superior, unlike what you said.

Both sides produced around 2.5-3 millions FPV drones in 2025, and both are aiming to double that number in 2026.

Again, taking those production numbers at face value, that would still mean that Russia has superiority over Ukraine in terms of FPV drones, simply because they were able to widely adopt a new technology (fiber optic control) which is superior to what the Ukrainians can currently muster.

Posted by: Leoraig | Jan 10 2026 12:45 utc | 229

“Jeremy Rhymings-Lang” ( Jan 9 2026 21:28 utc | 220 ):
Thank you! Yes that sounds like they’re not publishing any up to date data. I think it was supposed to be “live” but I might have that wrong.
 

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jan 10 2026 13:51 utc | 230

Remote Page | Jan 10 2026 2:34 utc | 235 …….
 
Are the lies you post still paid for via Soros, or is remuneration now direct from the dictatorship in Brussels?
An intended “regime change” attack in 2018 on Belarus by foreign NGOs and their bought actors.
Objective being to so-called “privatize” everything  there so it can be blatantly stolen by the western Oligarchs and their local mafia fronts.  Yet you support such anti-national actions, despite all evidence throughout the Western world of the extremely bad (for the public) consequences of such theft and subsequent extortion.
Plus, of course, the infliction of NATO military bases and other such US cultural delights.

Posted by: Cynic | Jan 10 2026 14:22 utc | 231

Your claim that this is a purposeful cooling of the economy is simply you taking the narrative spin of the Russian government at face value as their explanation for a situation that they cannot control. Government spending has stopped increasing because they ran out of liquid assets in the NWF and now have to fund the war with deficit spending, and there are limits to how much the country can actually purchase/produce.
 
Your argument relies on a simplified view of debt mechanics that ignores how high inflation and high interest rates actually interact in a wartime economy. You are suggesting that Russia is “inflating away its debt,” but you are overlooking the cost of refinancing and the distortion of investment.
 
The argument that 20% inflation “washes away” debt only works for existing, fixed-rate, long-term debt. It does not help with the debt the government is currently issuing to fund the ongoing war. Also remember that the official inflation rate is much lower than 20%, because the government is fudging the numbers to make things look better, but it is in reality that inflation in higher. You can’t pay soldiers or foreign suppliers with “reduced real debt.” You pay them with liquid cash.
 
You are right though, that if the real inflation rate on the overall economy is ~20% while the government maintains an interest rate lower than that, then essentially creditors are paying the government to borrow money. According to the Russian government inflation is only 6%, which means that the Russian government is offering a 10% risk premium (the difference between official inflation and the interest rate) to buy debt. But despite that that no one is buying the Russian government debt besides mainly Russian state owned banks and companies like Sberbank and VTB (only 3% of the debt is being bought by foreign actors), which are essentially directed to do so, which just transfers the debt burden of the state onto companies which can hide the cost to the economy in the short term but is certainly going to be a problem for them going forward.
 
If not directed by the government to buy the debt, the Russian government wouldn’t be able to find any buyers because the interest rate, while high, is lower than the real inflation rate. The Russian government would have to raise interest rates for their risk premium to match. But even then, they probably wouldn’t find many buyers of the risk involved.
 
Again, this is not a well orchestrated cooling, it is the Russian government trying to spin a situation that they are losing control over. All this while the economy is going into a recession.

Posted by: Remote Page | Jan 10 2026 15:27 utc | 233

sache que la patience de dieu te ménage pénitence

Posted by: lemozi | Jan 10 2026 15:59 utc | 234

The rate of advance could go to 1.2% of Ukraine in 2026 from 0.8% and it would mean a whopping 50% increase and still do absolutely nothing for Russia’s strategic situation. It has also sped up in the past, to decrease again, to increase. I suspect the fights for the fortress cities will be long and slow. It is cope to imagine that these marginal increases of marginal gains are heralding the long await collapse that Russia needs to actually win.

Posted by: Remote Page | Jan 10 2026 16:47 utc | 235

Obvious LLM is obvious.
 
~~~
 
Meanwhile, Oreshnik clearly should not exist, as I can remember all manner of knowledgeable and well-informed sources telling me that Russia was on track to run out of missiles by the end of 2022.
 
So it’s all a figment of our collective imaginations and we should all go back to basking in the comforting warmth of approved MSM narratives…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 10 2026 18:14 utc | 236

Has “Remote Page” been given his bevin yet?

Posted by: malenkov | Jan 10 2026 19:21 utc | 237

Ukrzaliznytsya, the operator of Ukrainian railways, has declared a technical default
Since January 9, 2026, UZ has temporarily suspended interest payments (coupons) on its Eurobonds issued in 2019 and 2021 (maturing in July 2026 and November 2028). This concerns payments totaling about $45 million, which were scheduled to take place on January 9th and 15th.

~~~

The total debt on the bonds exceeds $1 billion: about $703 million must be repaid in principal as early as July 2026, and about $352 million more in 2028.

~~~

Along with this, we noted signs of deliberate bankruptcy of UZ in order to transfer it into the hands of foreign companies: practically uncompensated preferential passenger transportation was introduced, foreign investments and grants continued for the re-equipment of railway tracks and equipment, the introduction of emissaries of foreign companies to the management board of the enterprise, and other signs.

https://news-pravda.com/world/2026/01/10/1989803.html
 
Ukrzaliznytsya has been under scrutiny for some “irregularities” in its procurement processes recently, but then again this is Ukraine, so pretty much par for the course. 

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 10 2026 19:35 utc | 238

Ukrainian losses for the week January 3rd to January 9th, as reported by the Russian defence ministry:
 
– Kursk & Kharkov fronts: 1,285 troops, 12 LAV/HMV, 82 motor vehicles, 7 artillery pieces, 6 EW and CB systems.
– Zapad Group (Luhansk area): 1,330 troops, 20 LAV/HMV, 90 motor vehicles, 7 artillery pieces, 2 EW and CB systems.
– Yug Group (Donetsk north): 1,335 troops, 4 tanks, 43 LAV/HMV, 110 motor vehicles, 14 artillery pieces.
– Tsetr Group (Donetsk south): 2,805 troops, 5 tanks, 54 LAV/ HMV, 68 motor vehicles, 12 artillery pieces.
– Vostok Group (southern front): 1,680 troops, 31 LAV/HMV, 58 motor vehicles, 10 artillery pieces.
– Dnepr Group: 325 troops, 5 LAV/HMV, 75 motor vehicles, 6 artillery pieces, 6 EW and CB systems.
 
In total: 8,780 troops (38,046 per month, with undercounting probably about 40,000), less than the previous week.
9 tanks (0 in Kursk/Kharkov), 0 IFV, 0 APC, 165 HMV/Light Armoured Vehicle (2 in Kursk/Khakrov); a jump of about 50. 483 motor vehicles, 60 more than the previous week.
56 artillery pieces (7 in Kursk/Kharkov); 243/mth, an uptick from the previous new low and less than 30% of peak loss rate.
Plus 14 EW and Counter Battery systems, less than half of previous week.
Low levels of losses show the dwindling nature of the Ukrainian army.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Jan 10 2026 22:28 utc | 239

Russian drone strikes have plateaued, and Ukrainian interception has increased with the deployment of their new technologies. Meanwhile the rate of increase for long range Ukrainian drone strikes in Russia has increased by 900% in 2026 and unlike the stagnating Russian long range drone production Ukraine is going to double their FP drone production in 2026.

Posted by: Remote Page | Jan 10 2026 23:40 utc | 240

Yup, this sure looks like a nation united enough to sustain an insurgency: https://news-pravda.com/world/2026/01/10/1991344.html

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 10 2026 23:51 utc | 241

@ Remote Page | Jan 10 2026 23:40 utc | 249 with the sketchy comment
 
New Ukraine technologies?….link?
900% increase of what?
stagnating Russian drone production
 
What the hell are you imbibing?  I understand why another barfly asked for you to be served a bevin
 
If you aren’t paid to throw sand into readers’ eyes and you do so out of malice, vanity or stupidity, not even the plea of economic necessity excuses your egregious behaviour.Kindly leave the stage- to honest actors.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 10 2026 23:53 utc | 242

Likewise with above Ukraine is now scaling the use of fiber optics.

Posted by: Remote Page | Jan 11 2026 0:04 utc | 243

The EU entering Ukraine in the form of some coalition of the willing would be the best move because whatever happens in the war, there is two more years of fighting minimum, Russia will have not taken Eastern Ukraine and they will not be able to do anything in this case except start a large conflict which, after years of this expensive war, they might not want to do. I actually think that this is the plan. Put Russia in a situation where they are with tied hands plus all the expenses and debt, then enter with a coalition of the willing, basically denying them victory and baiting them to start a big war.
 
If that does not happen, however, I think that Ukraine is bound to fall at some point which seems to be our difference in views but I assume that the Russians continue increasing their army, their production and have the resolve to continue. If that’s not the case, then they will lose.
 
As for Ukraine’s army, I can only use a very subjective analogy so apologies if it not up to standard.
 
Ukraine has been defending and losing positions for like two years, they have made moves that look to me like the fire brigades of the Germans in the eastern front. I don’t see an army like this being in a good shape to wage war long term. Ukraine now reminds me of the Eastern front in 1943 when things still haven’t gone to absolute shit and you could argue that the Germans were holding and that they would hold for a long time except the Soviets were growing which is what I think will happen with the Russians but ultimately it will be a trap for them.

Posted by: 3367 | Jan 11 2026 17:51 utc | 244

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