News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
Back to Main
January 8, 2026
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-008
Comments
NYT 11 minutes ago: Russia Appears to Use Nuclear Capable Missles in Ukraine
Posted by: frithguild | Jan 9 2026 3:18 utc | 101
We [Col. Cassad] explain. At a speed above Mach 5-6, the energy reserve in the piece of metal is greater than the energy reserve in the explosive that can be put into this warhead (for such a speed, this is no more than 25-30% of the total mass to withstand overloads). Therefore, it makes no sense to use explosives, plus the creation of a warhead is simplified. The warhead material heats up so much during sharp braking that it partially turns into plasma, from this stored energy. And accordingly, without any explosives, the effect of an explosion is obtained, a fragmentation field of very high-speed drops of material, which act as micro-cumulative jets directed in the direction of flight. And this gives a huge penetrating ability.
Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Jan 8 2026 23:24 utc | 48
*******************
Col. Cassad is correct, but a bit more information may clarify.
KE – 1/2.m.v^2 Mach 10 = 7,600 mph or 3.4 km/s or 3.4 x 10^3 m/s
Speculation:
Oreshnik is probably around 35 tonnes, solid-fuel rocket engine, fuel load 70% (say about 25 tonne), and warhead (if present) maybe 800Kg high explosive.
The explosive yield of TNT is 4.1MJ/Kg, so let’s assume a very good high explosive yield is 10MJ/Kg.
Energy yield of the fuel-empty Oreshnik, assuming it’s travelling at Mach 10 (with rough mental arithmetic):
KE = 1/2 x 2.5 x 10^4 Kg x (3.4 x10^3)^2
= 1.25 x 10^4 x 10^7 => say of the order of 10^11, or 100 Giga Joules.
Energy yield of 800Kg high explosive travelling at Mach 10:
Total Energy = KE + Explosive yield
= 1/2 x 800 x (3.4 x 10^3)^2 + 800 x 10 x 10^6
= 400 x 10^7 + 500 x 10^7 => say 9 Giga Joules
Source:
https://www.diploweb.com/Strategy-Possible-Portrait-of-the-Russian-Oreshnik-Missile-Fired-at-Ukraine-on-November-21st-2024.html
Comment:
This is a ‘back-of-the-envelope’ mental arithmetic calculation based on speculation and assumptions of ‘reasonable’ specs for the unknown Oreshnik. While it is not strictly correct to assume that KE translates directly equivalent to explosive detonation, with the speeds involved, and the directionality of energy deposition, it does provide a rough comparison. Although the energy yield of the rocket is 10 times greater than the warhead, it is also 30 times heavier. So, depending on the application, explosive warheads are not irrelevant or redundant.
A minor quibble – I don’t agree that the ‘warhead’ disintegrates into a ‘fragmentation field of very high-speed drops of material’. Think of the difference between being hit by a spray of water, compared with a water jet, compared with a rod of ice.
Posted by: General Factotum | Jan 9 2026 3:30 utc | 103
I will try to explain why I think that eventually this conflict becoming a frozen conflict is the most likely outcome. First you have to consider what either side would consider a victory, and what conditions that both countries are fighting under.
Ultimately Ukraine is simply fighting to continue existing as an independent country that can eventually join the EU and gain security guarantee’s through European partners, while Russia is fighting to reestablish itself as a great power that has hegemony over it’s near abroad. For this reason the Ukrainian economy is not a limiting factor on the Ukrainian war effort, because at the end of the day the EU will fund the Ukrainian government, pay for reconstruction, pay to help maintain the Ukrainian military etc. And the EU is a big enough economy, with a good enough credit rating, and enough manufacturing capacity to make good on this promise.
Russia on the other hand does not have an external backer that will underwrite it’s spending in the same capacity. Sure, it has China that will sell it war material and even let it issue Yuan denominated debt, but once the Russians have spent their liquid assets (which they largely have), then they need to start financing the war with debt which they are currently doing, essentially by directly the Russian state owned banks and companies (these are buying 80% of Russian issued debt, around 12-15% are Russian institutional investors and only around 3-4% is being bought by foreign entities (governments+companies)). This basically means no one wants to lend Russia money/buy their debt.
Let me ask you a question. Why wouldn’t you buy Russian state bonds that are offering you a return of 16%? That’s a great investment right? Well, no one seems to think so or the global market would be buying this debt. It’s a pretty strong sign that even Russian allies like China have no faith in the Russian economy long term. Either this debt will be defaulted on or it will be devalued by money printing/inflation.
At the end of the day the Russian government still has to pay for all of this. They have to pay the massive bonusses to attract volunteers, they have to pay for all the production of war material, and all of this is basically a completely unproductive investment. Until now the Russian government could sort of afford all of this because they had saved up a lot of money in the NWF and because the price of oil was very high for the first years of the war. The huge amount of defense spending also stimulated the economy considerably. Now they have spent the NWF, the price of oil is again historically low, and the economy is essentially flatlining at best, contracting at worse (a recessions amidst massive government stimulus as well). So now Russia is financing the war through debt that it is selling to its own state owned assets (who, like Gazprom are no longer producing profit) at a cripplingly high interest rate. This is essentially printing money by another name. And how will it pay the interest on it’s debt? It will sell more debt to it’s state owned companies at a ridiculously high interest rate. And it will have to keep doing this for however many years it will take to ‘win’ the war in Ukraine.
So even when Russia ‘wins’ the war in Ukraine, by capturing the rest of Donbas or whatever that Putin will be forced to accept as victory, it will be left with a massive pile of debt it can’t service, state owned companies up to their eyeballs in their own debt, and an economy in recession, and no room to conduct monetary policy to stimulate the economy because inflation will probably be higher than today. Honestly, even if Russia wins, it loses. The hope of the Russian military leadership is that the UAF collapses and then that Ukraine and the EU will be forced to accept its maximalist terms. This is something I would also be happy to discuss at length, but when you wrote that « Ukraine has less population, smaller army, smaller capability to mobilize, less military production », you must consider that Ukrainian military production is also European military production, and that this war is considered now an existential conflict to the EU (I listen to a lot of European defense related discourse, and this is a consensus across the continent). I would posit that the EU will deploy fighter jets to secure the skies of western Ukraine and also deploy rear area troops to Ukraine before they accept a Ukrainian surrender according to Russian demands. The EU would prefer to avoid doing that, and just have Russia wear itself out with no deployment of EU forces, but they will if it comes to that.
Ukrainian mobilization is problematic (largely problems of their own creation due to political ineptitude) but it continues to be sufficient to maintain the frontlines, keep the Russian advances to a snails pace (which allows continues fortification in the rear areas) and Ukrainian conscription is 25+. There are enough men in Ukraine to serve the army, but there is an issue of motivation. Increased payments, better more equitable mobilization, and also ultimately the more real threat the Russian army approaching areas like Zapo City where the lives of people who currently live ‘normal lives’ but would ultimately fight to defend their homes should it come to that, might increase mobilisation.
At the very least various military attachés and experts that travel to Ukraine and comment on the situation don’t see the UAF collapsing in the coming months of 2026. At the same time continued technological innovation of the UAF such as using UGVs for resupply, new types of defensive networks, and other elements such as now widescale deployment of interceptors drones are offsetting some Russian improved capabilities in drone attacks for instance. And as I mentioned, Ukraine continues to get newer and modern aircraft (Mirage, Gripen, F-16, Saab AWACS) which is set to scale up considerably in 2026 and 2027.
Both nations are entering the end phase of the war, I think that much is clear. And I will return to the original point that Ukraine is fighting to continue as an independent nation, and the EU is helping Ukraine to contain the Russian threat to it’s security.
Russia ultimately is fighting this war to bring Ukraine back into it’s sphere of influence, and reverse the trend of it’s former vassal states drifting away from it (almost happened to Belarus in 2018, Armenia is gone for sure after Russia failed to help it against Azerbaijan in), in other words to reassert its position as a great power that Putin and other Russian elites and nationalists feel that it deserves. This was only possible through military means because Russia is only 1.8% of global GDP, while Europe is 18.2%. So nations like Ukraine were always going to drift towards the Eu because that is where prosperity is, and Russia could only prevent it through political domination and failing that military domination. But Russia isn’t strong enough to achieve military domination, and the last four years prove that.
2026 is going to be a difficult year for Russia. They can’t increase their war production significantly, in fact it will probably decrease, they are now running on debt, and their military strategy/capacity seems only able to push back Ukraine slowly.
I will make a prediction, which is that Russia will spend most of 2026 taking the Donbas, and some modest gains on other parts of the front, but no collapse of the UAF, with EU and their increased war production and financing behind Ukraine, and then they will be looking into a 2027 where their production and debt issues are becoming even more acute. At some point Russia will simply have to scale down their commitments which essentially means allowing the conflict to drift towards becoming frozen. Less pressure on Ukraine is very bad for Russia, which is why Russia has pursued a strategy of maximum pressure since the beginning, because taking the foot of the pedal reduces the chance of the mythical collapse of the UAF.
Posted by: Remote Page | Jan 9 2026 3:31 utc | 104
Sanctions and Counter-Sanctions
The U.S. seizure of a Russian flagged oil tanker was notionally based on the U.S. declaring sanctions on Venezuelan oil. Let’s put that into plain English. The U.S. has declared they now own Venezuela’s oil and they are allowed to seize any ship which carries, or may possibly carry, Venezuelan oil. It is an interesting concept. The U.S. sanctions another country’s property and that property now belongs to the U.S.
Up to now only China has begun playing the sanction game against the U.S. I get the feeling the Russians are now tired of the U.S. The Maduro raid, the seizing of a Russian flagged oil tanker, the CIA’s attempt to assassinate Putin, have begun to crack the barriers in the Russian restraint. You can see it in the attacks on U.S. owned company facilities located in Ukraine as well as the extensive energy attacks across the country.
What I wonder is, when Russia will enter the sanctions game. Will they sanction U.S. LNG? Will they sanction U.S. weapons? Would they declare all U.S. LNG and weapons located anywhere in the world to now belong to Russia? Would they begin seizing ships carrying U.S. LNG and weapons?
Russian navy ships would not be needed. Russia could begin issuing Letters of Marque and Reprisal? The United States recognizes the legitimacy of Letters of Marque and Reprisal in its Constitution. The U.S. Congress has recently debated authorizing the President to issue such letters against cartels. So, it is very much a living issue. The U.S. could not complain, but I’m sure it would, if it was on the receiving end of such efforts.
If the Russians pursued this path, the U.S. Navy would no longer need to guard ships carrying LNG against the Russian Navy, but against privately outfitted military ships (privateers). For those of you who did not read the Wikipedia article I linked to, you missed the motivation for private individuals taking these risks. According to the accepted practice for Letters of Marques, you get to keep any ship you capture. So, if some Russian ship owner managed to get a Letter of Marque, he could go out, capture ships carrying U.S. LNG or weapons. If he got that ship into a Russian port, or a port of an allied nation – such as China, the ownership of the ship, and its entire cargo gets transferred to the guy who captured it. Typically, the crew of the privateer ship gets a cut of the profits. If you go to this movie scene you will hear a British Navy captain explain the wealth he gained by capturing privateers. Traditionally, when a navy crew captures a privateer, they get to sell it for profit. It was a way the British had to motivate their officers to beat down the privateers which tended to tear into British commercial shipping of the time.
It’s fun time. It looks like everything old will be new again and we will see privateers seizing merchant ships, navy captains getting rich capturing privateers, and pirates (non-licensed privateers) hanging.
Honestly, I think it all go this way eventually. The Russians will not attempt to use their Navy to fight the U.S. Privateers are a fantastic cost-effective method of destroying U.S. oceanic trade. Oh yeah, fishing vessels are also fair game. That means all those ships on the TV show, The Deadliest Catch, could be captured by privateers holding Russian Letters of Marque and Reprisal.
Posted by: Nobody Special | Jan 9 2026 3:31 utc | 105
Ultimately Ukraine is simply fighting to continue existing as an independent country that can eventually join the EU and gain security guarantee’s through European partners, while Russia is fighting to reestablish itself as a great power that has hegemony over it’s near abroad. For this reason the Ukrainian economy is not a limiting factor on the Ukrainian war effort, because at the end of the day the EU will fund the Ukrainian government, pay for reconstruction, pay to help maintain the Ukrainian military etc. And the EU is a big enough economy, with a good enough credit rating, and enough manufacturing capacity to make good on this promise.
When the basis of your arguement is this flawed, there is no point in trying to correct you. Great regurgitation of the Propaganda though, 8/10.
Ever had a thought that wasnt either given to you or you were paid for?
Posted by: eps | Jan 9 2026 3:46 utc | 106
AI is changing the answers – I posted this AI answer, left the page open and now have the new answer below:
is the oreshnik missle nuclear capable? AI Overview: Yes, Russia’s Oreshnik (also known as “Hazelnut”) missile is explicitly nuclear-capable, designed to carry nuclear warheads, though it’s also noted for its powerful conventional kinetic strike capability and ability to deliver multiple submunitions, making its exact payload ambiguous in some deployments. Russian officials announced the deployment of these nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles in late 2025, reinforcing its strategic threat.
Posted by: frithguild | Jan 9 2026 1:00 utc | 76
AI Overview: Yes, the
Russian Oreshnik hypersonic missile (part of the Sarmat system) is widely believed to be nuclear-capable, with its accuracy suggesting it’s designed to carry nuclear warheads, though some suggest its precision could also suit conventional submunitions, but its primary intent seems strategic and potentially nuclear.
Posted by: frithguild | Jan 9 2026 3:55 utc | 107
Apparently the pink glow in Kiev has something to do with methane dissociating to carbon and hydrogen, and heat turning into plasma. Hydrogen glows red/pink and carbon green.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 9 2026 0:57 utc | 72
*****************
A quick BOTE:
The energy of dissociation of methane is 360 KJ/mol. One mole of methane weighs 16 grams. The molecular weight of methane is 16, and a mole is defined as the molecular weight in grams. A mole of ideal gas occupies 22.4 litres at STP (Standard temperature and pressure [STP] is 0C and 1 atmosphere by definition) so the density of methane at STP is 0.67 Kg/m^3 at STP. So there are bout 45 moles of methane in one cubic metre of methane at STP, requiring about 16 MJ to dissociate. Hydrogen (atomic or molecular) is also more combustible or explosive than methane.
It may be profitable to explore other options to explain the red glow?
Posted by: General Factotum | Jan 9 2026 3:55 utc | 108
Colonelcassad
The enemy claims that the speed of the “Hazel” during the strikes on Lviv was more than 13,000 km / h. Thereare no air defense systems to combat missiles of this type in Ukraine.
Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Jan 9 2026 4:09 utc | 109
From Al Manar
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has strongly criticized the US foreign policy under President Donald Trump and urged the world not to let the world order disintegrate into a “den of robbers” where the unscrupulous take what they want.
In unusually strong remarks, which appeared to refer to actions such as the kidnapping of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro at the weekend, the former foreign minister said global democracy was being attacked as never before.
Although the German president’s role is largely ceremonial, his words carry some weight and he has more freedom to express views than politicians.
Describing Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine as a watershed, Steinmeier said the US behavior represented a second historic rupture.
“Then there is the breakdown of values by our most important partner, the USA, which helped build this world order,” Steinmeier said in remarks at a symposium late on Wednesday.
“It is about preventing the world from turning into a den of robbers, where the most unscrupulous take whatever they want, where regions or entire countries are treated as the property of a few great powers,” he said.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 9 2026 4:09 utc | 110
Posted by: Remote Page | Jan 9 2026 3:31 utc | 107
Delusion 2 Russia is simply expansionist
Truly what an outdated view. Russia sees the conflict as existential to its survival. This has been made clear time and time again, but fools do not listen. Russia wants NATO away from its borders, just as Trump wants Russia and China away from its borders hence Venezuela. NATO is Russias enemy
Delusion 3:
The EU is strong. This might have been true in 2022, but is now essentially a joke. There were just a few donor nations. No 1 Germany, No 2 UK, 3 France with much smaller amounts from Italy, Spain etc. Major recipient Poland. UK is gone. Germany is in probably terminal manufacturing decline. Do you really think France and Italy have the resources to keep Poland and the babies afloat? Forget about Ukraine. In fact what if Poland because of its size and economy becomes a DONOR nation. Get out of the way of the rush to Polexit.
If true that Oreshnik’s (nuclear capable) were utilized, did the Russians “notify” the US?If not, I would think that would be the most “important “message in itself.
Posted by: TheTurk | Jan 9 2026 4:22 utc | 112
Tit for Tat…
Ukrainian overnight strikes have caused massive power outages in the western Russian city of Belgorod.
Posted by: TheTurk | Jan 9 2026 4:40 utc | 113
Lots of talk about energy beams, steering, bending, massive power… When speculating it is important to keep both feet on the ground (we live in a real world) and understand a little about how and why things work.
Electromagnetic radiation (EMR) travels in straight lines. It can be bent at an interface between materials with two differing refractive indexes. Think of a lens – the light travels in a straight line within the lens. It can be bent within a material where there is a refractive index gradient. Think of GRIN (GRaded INdex) optical fibres, where the refractive index is a cylindrically symmetrical gradient transverse to the fibre axis. EMR energy distribution can be controlled to an extent by managed interference. Think of a phased array radar produces linear beam patterns emerging from the array by controlling the phase of the signal from separate antennae. Same idea with ‘beam control’ from mobile phone (cell) towers. (Ever wondered why there are two antennae in each of the four ‘NSEW’ directions?). The beam is not ‘bent’ as such, but rather the energy distribution is managed using the principle of constructive and destructive interference so maximal energy is directed (in a straight line) to the region of communication, rather than being broadcast isotropic. There is no physical mechanism for bending an EMR beam remotely once it has been launched.
Very high power EMR beams rapidly disperse because they ionise the air. Plasma can have (and usually does) a negative refractive index, so the beam disperses in an uncontrollable way until the energy density is too low to ionise the air (and probably to do too much damage). There are atmospheric wavelength ‘windows’ that minimize this effect, but Murphy’s Law usually dictates that these are also more difficult to tune lasers to.
A quick BOTE. Let’s assume that you want to boil and explode a nasty Russky soldier. He’s ten kilometres away. He has a half square metre cross-section to absorb the energy. He weighs 100Kg (plenty of Borscht), and he is so dark and sinful that he absorbs all the radiation (just accept it – no reflection required…). There is 70Kg of water, (not counting alcohol) in his body. The latent heat of vaporisation of water is 2.26 MJ/Kg. Say 158MJ required to boil the man. You have to be quick, or he may feel the heat and move… so you have 2 seconds?. Then the beam energy for the man’s cross-section needs to be 80MW. But there is more! at that distance, the beam has dispersed to say a 10 metre radius, or around 80 m^2 cross-section. The Russky is half a square metre cross-section, so you need 160 x 80MW, or 12.8 GW for two seconds. Your laser is really, really good and has a 10% efficiency, so your energy source has to provide 120 GW…
Of course, this is only for illustration, and maybe a tiny whiff of humor. You can focus the beam, you can track the man, and you don’t need to boil the entire mass of flesh and alcohol to kill the poor unfortunate fellow.
PS. I love Russians, but no other nationality is allowed to be picked on in Australia at present. Our hate speech laws exempt attacks on Russia (I think).
Posted by: General Factotum | Jan 9 2026 5:05 utc | 114
Pure speculation from me.
Oreshnik does not have a warhead. Possibly it was planned to have both conventional and/or nuclear warheads. Reality is the plasma cone and whatever state the “cone” turns into meant warheads would not survive terminal velocity.
Since the destruction wrought the weapon without a warhead is so complete, why complicate matters by trying to achieve the impossible?
Turk’s question, was the US alerted to an IRBM use, wins this thread.
Wisco or not, someone is clearly batting for the Dark Side.
Posted by: Suresh | Jan 9 2026 5:08 utc | 115
@Posted by: Remote Page | Jan 9 2026 3:31 utc | 107
This has to rate as one of the most embarrassing posts I have seen on MOA. A quick google search of Russian govt debt as % of GDP, Russian govt debt as a % of GDP could have saved you such embarrassment. Then more google searches of European govt debt and deficits will show their utter inability to continue funding Ukraine and even more its reconstruction. Russia is also taking all the most valuable parts of Ukraine, with the mineral and industrial wealth. Western Ukraine is not that valuable.
Russia can keep grinding along (and the advances are increasing) as long as it takes, and has recently taken the gloves off with respect to destroying the Ukrainian infrastructure that supports the war. At the same time it is actually destroying European industrial competitiveness and unity. It will take the East bank of the Dniepr and Odessa because that’s what it needs for its most basic security needs. It has nothing to do with fictitious Russian expansionism.
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Jan 9 2026 5:10 utc | 116
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 8 2026 15:25 utc | 7
The little cowardly Neo-Nazi dictator Zelensky wants Trump to kidnap Ramzan Kadyrov.
What’s the most defenseless next target in the middle east?
Posted by: Laurence | Jan 9 2026 5:31 utc | 117
snake@1:
“The real problem for the east is to accelerate dedollarization.”
Yes, but the surgery must be done and the sooner the better.
And delicately. The death throes of an empire like this can be the most dangerous and protracted time of all.
Posted by: John Gilberts | Jan 9 2026 5:36 utc | 118
(topwar.ru)Russia conducted the second combat test of a ballistic missile missiles The Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) was launched. This time, the military assessed the missile’s ability to strike specific targets, striking an underground gas storage facility in Western Ukraine.
According to Ukrainian sources, Russia used an Oreshek missile to strike the Bilche-Volytsko-Uherske underground gas storage facility in the Lviv region—the largest gas storage facility in Europe. This facility was presumably chosen for a reason, as it is considered one of the most difficult targets to reach, and Russian military forces used it to test the missile’s capabilities.
Ukrainian media outlets haven’t reported any consequences, but judging by the information that emerged immediately after the strike on the gas storage facility, the impacts were severe—the explosions were so loud that they were heard even in neighboring regions. There are also reports of problems with gas supplies to homes.
As the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ West Air Command admitted, the Russian missile’s speed was approximately 13k km/h, and there was no question of interception, as Ukraine lacks the means missile defense systems capable of intercepting such targets. And the Oreshnik strike only became known after it struck a “critical infrastructure facility.”
According to some Ukrainian sources, Zelensky was in his bunker overnight, calling his European partners and complaining about Russia. So, today we expect more statements from Macron and others like him about the inadmissibility of such strikes.
Posted by: TheTurk | Jan 9 2026 5:50 utc | 119
If current reports are correct then it was an Oreshnik. Apparently Russia advised the US that an attack with a nuclear capable missile (not armed) would be coming, in compliance with treaty “obligations.”
watcher | Jan 9 2026 6:03 utc | 130
https://www.rt.com/russia/630746-suspected-oreshnik-strikes-video/
Posted by: arby | Jan 9 2026 0:11 utc | 56
No doubt.
Posted by: Laurence | Jan 9 2026 6:07 utc | 121
Posted by: Remote Page | Jan 9 2026 3:31 utc | 107
ridiculous post, the war can only end once Ukraine is demilitarized otherwise they’ll just keep attacking the newly acquire territories and no doubt continue to drone Russia.
your frozen conflict fantasy I notice doesn’t involve a reduction in military support from the west or the size of the Ukro army.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Jan 9 2026 6:07 utc | 122
JRL, if you haven’t seen it, the newest Simplicius has some video of Oreshnik use.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/swift-retaliation-putin-launches
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 9 2026 6:15 utc | 123
Larry Johnson and Simplicius both confirm Oreshniks were used again in Ukraine, perhaps for multiple reasons, some not necessarily to do with Ukraine.
Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Jan 9 2026 6:18 utc | 124
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 9 2026 6:15 utc | 133
Seems I was posting a similar confirmation at the same time.
Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Jan 9 2026 6:22 utc | 125
From the nato-nazi north the crimes of Queen Chrystia are finally being exposed to a wider public: But of course Ottawa Citizen Defence Reporter David Pugliese isn’t a ‘Russian asset’ he’s a Canadian one. He is also the survivor of a vicious and powerful Freeland attack for publishing stories exposing her family’s nazi past after John Helmer first broke the full story internationally in his blog.
Canadian Armed Forces Spy Scandal Exposes Covert Campaign to Smear and Silence Critics of Ottawa’s Role in Ukraine War
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/01/09/dviq-j09.html
“Espionage allegations against a Canadian Armed Fores (CAF) military intelligence officer accused of acting on behalf of Ukrainian intelligence have exposed a campaign waged by elements within the Canadian military to smear veteran Ottawa Citizen reporter David Pugliese as a ‘Russian asset’…
He was one of a tiny number of mainstream journalists who challenged the attempts by the Canadian political establishment to dismiss the revelation that former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland’s ‘beloved grandfather’ was a prominent Nazi collaborator as Russian ‘disinformation’ and of no consequence…”
I think the Freeland legacy may finally get the examination it most certainly deserves. She’s quite a piece of work alright. A true Canadian villain. So here’s hoping her story has legs that go far. Chrystia, Carney and Zelenkyy, with cameos by Larry Summers, Justin Trudeau, George Soros. What a bad movie it would make.
Posted by: John Gilberts | Jan 9 2026 6:25 utc | 126
Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Jan 9 2026 6:22 utc | 137
####
Jeremy is very interested in the Oreshnik. I wanted to make sure he could see it in use again.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 9 2026 6:25 utc | 127
Posted by: watcher | Jan 9 2026 6:03 utc | 132
#####
Because the Oreshnik is an ICBM, they notified the Americans that it was not a nuclear launch to avoid an awkward escalation.
I assume that the Yanks immediately informed the Nazis. But the Oreshnik hit a velocity of Mach 10+, which makes it impossible to calculate what the target was.
Man, it is crazy that Obama let the Russians steal the hypersonic technology… 😂😂😂
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 9 2026 6:31 utc | 128
Oreshnik on Lvov!
Whatever it hit (Lvov mayor said “critical infrastructure”) was still burning at least 3 hours later.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | Jan 9 2026 7:17 utc | 129
@Love Donbass 132
Wow, those Russian hypersonic shovels dig into bunkers pretty quickly, don’t they?
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | Jan 9 2026 7:19 utc | 130
“I will make a prediction, which is that Russia will spend most of 2026 taking the Donbas, and some modest gains on other parts of the front, but no collapse of the UAF.”
Remote Page | Jan 9 2026 3:31 utc | 108
Mr Page, your so-called predictions, which basically reflect those of the Russophobic west, are one of the reasons Ukraine is losing this war. I do remember your ilk telling us 2 yrs ago that Russia was running out of missiles and that chips were being extracted from washing machines and Russian soldiers were fighting with spades. You will remember, Im sure you do Mr Page.
And the thing is, you and your ilk, judging by your posts on here, are still making the same mistake….wishful thinking, making things up, because you are living in a narrative, not the real world.
But do continue in your dreams, Mr Page.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jan 9 2026 7:23 utc | 131
Posted by: Suresh | Jan 8 2026 23:00 utc | 41
I remember watching a video in simplicious substtack where the RF general admitted that 84 soldiers took Siversk, not 150. 28 units of 3 men each.
Posted by: 667 | Jan 9 2026 7:43 utc | 132
Reality is the plasma cone and whatever state the “cone” turns into meant warheads would not survive terminal velocity.
Posted by: Suresh | Jan 9 2026 5:08 utc | 119
***************
Re-entry vehicles (REV’s) from manned space flights exceed the speed of Oreshnik, and travel similar distances, if not considerably further. The heat-shield and REV cone arrive on Earth’s surface intact, and the human inhabitants occupying same are uncooked.
Care to ‘speculate’ on that?
Posted by: General Factotum | Jan 9 2026 7:45 utc | 133
Official statement:
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that in response to the attack on Vladimir Putin’s residence, Russian troops launched a massive strike on critical targets in Ukraine using the Oreshnik missile system.
https://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2026/01/09/22307755.shtml
Posted by: sh0tek | Jan 9 2026 7:46 utc | 134
Posted by: Remote Page | Jan 9 2026 3:31 utc | 108
Russia’s debt to GDP ratio is under 20% while the USA is well over 100% and most of Europe is at the high side of that range. The EU cannot direct significant amounts of money, for either war materials or reconstruction … all they can do is pressure the EU member states to send money. At some point those taxpayers will give up on Ukraine, although it’s tragic but they just won’t allow themselves to be bled. The EU can say what they want but they can’t actually make anyone pay.
Russia has significant Gold and Silver reserves as well, although so far they have been reluctant to dip into that, for whatever reason. They have valuable reserves of other stuff like Uranium, Tungsten, etc. The Russian people are fairly much determined to finish this … and that is exactly what they will do. The Western half of Ukraine is gonna be left in tatters. After that I suppose the finger pointing and blame game continues for quite some time, and the rift between East and West will harden.
Russia’s stated aim is to keep NATO and the EU out of Ukraine, forever. Now France and the UK say they will bring in troops right after there’s a ceasefire … but Russia will never voluntarily agree to that. Therefore there won’t be a ceasefire officially, although fighting might simmer down. The first batch of UK or French troops marching in there will take a missile to the chops … and then what happens?!? Western Ukraine needs to eventually come to terms with the idea that Europe won’t rescue them.
Posted by: Tel | Jan 9 2026 7:53 utc | 135
At some point those taxpayers will give up on Ukraine,
Posted by: Tel | Jan 9 2026 7:53 utc | 142
—
For many giving up on Ukraine will be trigger the revelation that causes them to give up on the EU.
Posted by: too scents | Jan 9 2026 7:59 utc | 136
Care to ‘speculate’ on that?
Posted by: General Factotum | Jan 9 2026 7:45 utc | 140
—
Please don’t encourage ignorant speculation. There is no point to it, and there is too much of it already.
Posted by: too scents | Jan 9 2026 8:00 utc | 137
It’s better to do “something” than to do nothing and maybe it’s still the right thing. The Oreshnik in Lviv was an unveiled warning to the EUnichs, one of the hands in the Ukrainian glove. But it will not sink in. It might sink in with the Ukrainian regime but they are dispensable meat who will keep following orders to the last Ukrainian. Apart from energy and some defense infrastructure hit in Kiev, it currently seems no “message” was sent to the UK or US.
Posted by: xor | Jan 9 2026 8:02 utc | 138
Please don’t encourage ignorant speculation. There is no point to it, and there is too much of it already.
Posted by: too scents | Jan 9 2026 8:00 utc | 144
********
All too true!! In my weak defense, I wasn’t looking for further speculation, but hoping a (slightly) light-hearted throw away line may encourage some thought before speculation, analysis during the process, and perhaps even some review/reflection afterwards – before pressing the Post Comment button…
On the other hand, if every reader had already mentally binned the speculation then my comment is redundant and I will cheerfully retire!
Posted by: General Factotum | Jan 9 2026 8:19 utc | 139
At some point those taxpayers will give up on Ukraine, Posted by: Tel
Right. That’s why their warmongering overlords Starmer, Macron, Merz etc. will declare state of war, and there won’t be any elections during that time.
Posted by: Apollyon | Jan 9 2026 8:23 utc | 140
The slowdown in the Russian economic growth is controlled, aimed at lowering inflation and enabling a lower interest rate, both of which are happening right now. There is no apparent structural failure in the Russian economy which could threaten their military campaign in the short term.
Ukraine has been facing a manpower shortage most of 2025, but seems able to continue to stabalise the frontline.
The opposite has been true in many fronts in 2025. In the Hulyaipole front the Russians have made rapid advancements this past year; they were also able to successfully flank Pokrovsk from the east/north-east; they were able to advance to the outskirts of Lyman from two directions and lately also take Siversk.
All of those large scale advancements, and also Russia’s continued infiltration operations, paint a clear picture of a weakening Ukrainian frontline due to a lack of manpower, and the qualitative assessments made by Ukrainians themselves confirm that picture.
Russia has increased its production of drones and has reached parity with Ukraine in this area.
Russia has surpassed Ukraine in terms of drones, that much is extremely clear. In terms of long range drones, we see that Russia today conducts almost daily drone strikes with hundreds of drones against Ukraine, while Ukraine can only do the same sporadically.
Moreover, in terms of FPV drones, Russia has dashed ahead through the use of cable controlled drones, which are impervious to EW, while Ukraine seemingly is still struggling to widely adopt that technique.
Posted by: Leoraig | Jan 9 2026 8:36 utc | 141
There is no physical mechanism for bending an EMR beam remotely once it has been launched.
Posted by: General Factotum | Jan 9 2026 5:05 utc | 11
There’s a well known physical mechanism going by the name “gravity” which does the job … although I’m half way expecting some wag to point out the impracticality of keeping a neutron star in your trousers pocket.
Seriously though, you don’t need to go around boiling enemy soldiers … besides the difficulties in doing this, we aren’t in the Middle Ages!
A dose of the 95 GHz skin burner tends to get people running away, which is potentially a way to gain territory at least. Cheaper, more portable and if you believe the rumours worked on protestors during the COVID luckdowns.
Then there’s whatever contraptions China tests on Indian troops up in the mountains … as they say in Tibet: keep em occupied.
Posted by: Tel | Jan 9 2026 8:40 utc | 142
so many trolls today. very depressing
Posted by: James | Jan 9 2026 6:55 utc | 134
Agree. And I wish people would stop feeding them. They are too well-fed, sickeningly obese.
Posted by: Avtonom | Jan 9 2026 9:19 utc | 143
97.6% of all incoming Russian missiles have been destroyed. It is so simple to accomplished because the Russian military uses only washing machine microchips chips. After this salvo, Russia will be completely out of missiles. Sources say …
Posted by: frithguild | Jan 9 2026 3:11 utc | 104
Don’t be absurd. Of course not 97.6% of incoming missiles have been destroyed.100% have been destroyed. Missiles are destroyed even if hitting a target, after all.
(Well, except for that S300 missile that landed on a Polish barn roof a couple of years back. It would seem that only an extremely minuscule fraction of missiles manages to land intact. Must be a design flaw.)
=============================================
Use of Oreshnik is not going to scare the USA, not to mention Ukraine. The west will escalate again, very soon.
Posted by: Simon | Jan 9 2026 8:51 utc | 150
I don’t think the Oreshniks were meant to scare anyone this time around. They were meant to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure. And they did.
Posted by: Martina | Jan 9 2026 9:30 utc | 144
Well if the Natzios incited the second outing for oreshnik so they could gather the telemetrjcs by attacking vvp directly – their cunning ‘baldrickian’ plan worked!
(reference to comedy Blackadder for anyone wishing to look up the lumpen character Baldrick)
Hope it was worth it! Th ‘provoked’ full scale attack on whatever bunkers.
In response Ukrops gave a power cut to a city of half million.
in a response to the response – ukropia lost its steelmaking plant!
Yurp lost that steel, lost or came close to losing the ‘largest gas storage in Yurp’ and perhaps lost a v.deep miltary bunker and likely picked up some high value casualties …
Soviet era infrastructure undergoing decommunisation – Yurp can have the rump ukropia without Soviet jewels.
So how’s the denazification coming along ?
Meanwhile starlink has been nullified – in Iran as in Ukropia – Elon has made the users stand out and glow – and battlefield innovation swats them like flies.
The new war is changing much.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Jan 9 2026 9:30 utc | 145
@107
Mr BlackMountainAnalysis (an engineer from the ex-Serbian AA battery that shot down the F117-A) has a wonderfully in-depth analysis of what a Hazel might be and what and how the damage from the weapon happens. A jolly good read, what.
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/oreshnik-against-zelenskys-bunker
Posted by: AleaJactaEst | Jan 9 2026 9:39 utc | 146
Posted by: General Factotum | Jan 9 2026 7:45 utc | 140
But they are slowed down with Parachutes and not slammed into the Ground at Max Speed…🤦🏾♀️
Posted by: Nobody | Jan 9 2026 9:42 utc | 147
Posted by: Nobody | Jan 9 2026 9:42 utc | 157
I take the 🤦🏾♀️ back, you answered another one..Well, better be silent now till i have my 2 Coffees….
Posted by: Nobody | Jan 9 2026 9:44 utc | 148
Posted by: Simon | Jan 9 2026 9:38 utc | 155
What an idiotic take, Russia didn’t use “nuclear weapons”…
But soon….
And they won’t be aimed at a stupid gas line.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Jan 9 2026 10:26 utc | 149
“Meanwhile starlink has been nullified – in Iran as in Ukropia – Elon has made the users stand out and glow – and battlefield innovation swats them like flies.” The new war is changing much.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Jan 9 2026 9:30 utc | 153
Interesting…. How does that work?
With Starlink I mean…seriously never thought about it.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Jan 9 2026 10:31 utc | 150
It wasn’t just the Oreshniks…
🇺🇦 Vitali Klitschko tells the Kiev residents to leave if they can
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/169848
🇺🇦🥶 Utility services were ordered to drain water from in-house systems to prevent freezing – MP Kucherenko
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/169849
It is -8C in Kiev right now ( ref. windy.com )
Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 9 2026 10:52 utc | 151
Posted by: Trubind1 | Jan 9 2026 10:31 utc | 155
About the Russian Kalinka system for Starlink signal finding :
https://en.iz.ru/en/1807283/2024-12-14/russia-has-developed-kalinka-system-calculating-starlink-signals
https://orbitaltoday.com/2025/04/09/russia-china-escalate-threats-against-starlink-with-kalinka-system/
Posted by: Sebgo | Jan 9 2026 11:03 utc | 152
Vitali Klitschko tells the Kiev residents to leave if they can
Optimist ‘Remote Page’ will probably even spin empty Kiev as advantage that will guarantee Ukraine’s winning in 2026.
P.S. While on that subject, he also forgot that ‘footnote’ by the Chinese about a year ago which stated that they simply cannot afford Russia losing this conflict and it would already be over if they really helped militarily.
Posted by: tuf | Jan 9 2026 11:05 utc | 153
But they are slowed down with Parachutes and not slammed into the Ground at Max Speed…
Posted by: Nobody | Jan 9 2026 9:42 utc | 151
***************
True dat! And can you tell me how fast they are going when the parachutes deploy? And how fast and far they have travelled through the atmosphere before parachute deployment?
Posted by: General Factotum | Jan 9 2026 11:06 utc | 154
Zakharova now ‘thanking’ the US for releasing 2 Russian servicemen.
What gratitude should be shown to a country that seized Russian citizens in an act of piracy on the high seas ?
Posted by: Night Tripper | Jan 9 2026 11:37 utc | 155
There’s a well known physical mechanism going by the name “gravity” which does the job … although I’m half way expecting some wag to point out the impracticality of keeping a neutron star in your trousers pocket.
Posted by: Tel | Jan 9 2026 8:40 utc | 146
****************
Hey – you know that is classified information? The new US wonderwaffen.
Deploy the neutron star and suck up all those suckers, along with trees and rocks – the entire Earth vacuumed up in one mighty puff suck. You must promise me that you won’t disclose the secret of holding the neutron star in place!
“And the Spirit of Trump moved upon the Wonderful newly created Void, and He pronounced it ‘Beautiful, the most Beautiful, Magnificent void in the Entire Cosmos. A Void so clean- nay, Cleaner than Clean. Cleaner than the Entire Western Hemisphere. The United States of America claims this Void. We will Manage it for Eternity. Thank you for your Attention to this Matter.'”
I think I need sleep to rearrange my neutrons neurons. Must check tomorrow to see whether the fuse is completely blown…
Posted by: General Factotum | Jan 9 2026 11:42 utc | 156
Posted by: frithguild | Jan 9 2026 3:55 utc | 110
AI is a false God.
Why ChatGPT can’t be trusted with breaking news:
https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/why-chatgpt-cant-be-trusted-with
Don’t trust anything it tells you.
Posted by: ChatNPC | Jan 9 2026 11:44 utc | 157
Klitschko is advising everyone to leave Kiev.
To those who said Russia needs Kiev – no they don’t – they can just depopulate it. It will be part of the future non-populated demilitarized zone.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 9 2026 11:48 utc | 158
<blockquote>
Russia’s stated aim is to keep NATO and the EU out of Ukraine, forever. Now France and the UK say they will bring in troops right after there’s a ceasefire … but Russia will never voluntarily agree to that. Therefore there won’t be a ceasefire officially, although fighting might simmer down. The first batch of UK or French troops marching in there will take a missile to the chops … and then what happens?!? Western Ukraine needs to eventually come to terms with the idea that Europe won’t rescue them.
Posted by: Tel | Jan 9 2026 7:53 utc | 139
</blockquote>
Well, Britain can bring whatever it wants, 8 British officers were killed in Odessa in last few days.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 9 2026 11:52 utc | 159
There are reports that train lines west of Kiev have been left without electricity. Trains have been left stranded on the lines.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 9 2026 12:17 utc | 160
Re: Posted by: Remote Page | Jan 9 2026 3:31 utc | 108
2026 is going to be a difficult year for Russia. They can’t increase their war production significantly, in fact it will probably decrease, they are now running on debt, and their military strategy/capacity seems only able to push back Ukraine slowly. I will make a prediction, which is that Russia will spend most of 2026 taking the Donbas, and some modest gains on other parts of the front, but no collapse of the UAF, with EU and their increased war production and financing behind Ukraine, and then they will be looking into a 2027 where their production and debt issues are becoming even more acute. At some point Russia will simply have to scale down their commitments which essentially means allowing the conflict to drift towards becoming frozen. Less pressure on Ukraine is very bad for Russia, which is why Russia has pursued a strategy of maximum pressure since the beginning, because taking the foot of the pedal reduces the chance of the mythical collapse of the UAF.
Very good analysis and I tend to agree.
There is big change coming to the EU in 2027 with a new French President – President Bardella or Le Pen or Melenchon – all will likely run on on anti-war platform, one of whom will come to power in May 2027 and rip apart the EU consensus on Ukraine and Russia and push for a settlement.
Finally, Russia could have someone to talk to in mid-2027 in Europe.
The other thing going on in 2027 will be the third impeachment and trial of President Trump assuming the Democrats win the House (likely) and Senate (certainly possible), which will have huge political implications – including for Ukraine and Russia.
The other big election this year is the Hungarian Election – can Orban survive as Hungarian Prime Minister?
2026-27 likely presents the last chance for an off ramp of a wider conflict, and I bet Putin is aware of this and knowing him, definitely willing to give it a chance – at least for the next 12-18 months.
Putin is nothing if not cautious.
Posted by: Julian | Jan 9 2026 12:24 utc | 161
Zakharova now ‘thanking’ the US for releasing 2 Russian servicemen.What gratitude should be shown to a country that seized Russian citizens in an act of piracy on the high seas ? Posted by: Night Tripper | Jan 9 2026 11:37 utc | 160
That’s ok. You know that you respect yourself when you say thanks to a monkey, which is what happened there.
What Zakharova did today and yesterday was actually useful. Yesterday she explained ( tass.com/politics/2069243 ) that it was a Russian ship according to the law, which canceled the theory from the youtube talking heads like Marty from Amerika, that US has all the legal rights to board and capture stateless ships and today we learned that there were Russians on that ship, which the same talking heads denied.
Trumpy has also lied again, said the ship was full of oil that he is taking now, billions of dollars but all photos show the ship fully raised above the water level, that wasn’t a full ship. He also said that the Russian navy ran scared when his ship arrived to pirate the tanker.
Posted by: rk | Jan 9 2026 12:33 utc | 162
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 9 2026 11:48 utc | 163
[…]
Yup, as I’ve said a few times here: the Grozny show is coming to town!
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Jan 9 2026 12:37 utc | 163
Posted by: rk | Jan 9 2026 12:33 utc | 167
There were two Russian crewmembers – 17 were Ukrainian.
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 9 2026 12:41 utc | 164
I can’t copy & paste the links for some reason but there is a fascinating article on imperialism in Ukraine, written 1920 but only recently translated into English, on wsws.org as of this morning…
Posted by: Pete | Jan 9 2026 12:59 utc | 165
Some sage and wise “prognostications” from one or two NAFOistas, who conveniently overlook Ukraine’s looming sovereign debt servicing crisis.
Remember, the much-trumpeted €90 billion from the EU hasn’t been structured yet, never mind approved, but some recent reports from international financial bodies suggest the Kiev junta will run out of cash resources as early as next month. The AFU won’t be fighting until 2027 if they aren’t getting paid, or the vig isn’t flowing through the accustomed channels.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2026 13:01 utc | 166
Ukraine’s largest steelmaker Zaporizhstal halted production after losing gas and energy supply – in 2025 it made 3.2 million tons of steel.
https://x.com/KShevchenkoReal/status/2009521269255860625
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 9 2026 13:03 utc | 167
Posted by: General Factotum | Jan 9 2026 11:06 utc | 159
I cant. I am a Chef. I can tell you Stuff about Fermentation, Cooking Time/Points, Brines, Temp Regulation, Hygiene/Sanitation, Logistics for Meals/Restaurants etc….🙋♀️
Posted by: Nobody | Jan 9 2026 13:04 utc | 168
Ukraine and World Affairs: Weekly Update 9th January 2026: May be Useful to Some: Ukraine and World Affairs: Weekly Update
Posted by: The Busker | Jan 9 2026 13:10 utc | 169
Posted by: General Factotum | Jan 9 2026 3:30 utc | 106
I can see that your calculation, like many estimates seen here and elsewhere, don’t take into account the heat energy of a hypersonic missile warhead.
According to Putin’s statement after the first missile hit at Dinipro, the temperature exceeds 4,000 degrees Celsius.
At this temperature, even if the warheads represent only a fraction of the missile’s total mass, it still posses significant energy, especially if the material has a high heat capacity.
This is without even considering the role that temperature can play in the target penetration or the destruction by heat in absence of explosive.
There is still a lot of things to understand about hypersonic projectiles.
Posted by: Sebgo | Jan 9 2026 13:19 utc | 170
psychohistorian | Jan 9 2026 4:09 utc | 113
The Germans should have protested about an unscrupulous den of robbers blowing up NS2, instead of letting the US get away with it. Bit late now to start moaning.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jan 9 2026 13:36 utc | 171
Re: Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2026 13:01 utc | 171
Some sage and wise “prognostications” from one or two NAFOistas, who conveniently overlook Ukraine’s looming sovereign debt servicing crisis. Remember, the much-trumpeted €90 billion from the EU hasn’t been structured yet, never mind approved, but some recent reports from international financial bodies suggest the Kiev junta will run out of cash resources as early as next month. The AFU won’t be fighting until 2027 if they aren’t getting paid, or the vig isn’t flowing through the accustomed channels.
You keep going on about “Ukraine’s debt” – that won’t be a problem until the war is over.
The West is not going to let Ukraine lose this war because of a lack of funding.
The fact you still don’t appear to understand this is mystifying.
Posted by: Julian | Jan 9 2026 13:54 utc | 172
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Jan 9 2026 13:36 utc | 176
There where a lot of Protests…But they got the Way of “Occupy Wall Street”…🤔
Posted by: Nobody | Jan 9 2026 14:25 utc | 173
General Factotum @ 106
Coulomb Effect.
No one is engaging with reality. It is going to take quite a few Oreshnik strikes before anyone even begins to view anything but their own internal mental landscape.
Posted by: oldhippie | Jan 9 2026 14:28 utc | 174
Brief video clip of the fireball over the gas storage facility: https://news-pravda.com/world/2026/01/09/1986484.html
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2026 14:33 utc | 175
Oreshnik Strikes Again: Russia’s Hypersonic Strike on Europe’s Largest Gas Hub Last night, Russia executed a precision Mach 10+ hypersonic strike with the Oreshnik missile on the Bilche-Volytsko-Ugerske underground gas storage (UGS) near Lvov—Europe’s largest gas reservoir.
Immediate Consequences: Critical Infrastructure Crippled: Major fire, sharp pressure drop, and loss of communications at the facility.
Energy Grid Pressure: Combined with strikes on Kiev’s CHP plants, this pushes Ukraine’s already fragile winter energy system toward potential collapse.
European Energy Security Breached: The facility stored gas for European traders. Damage could lead to supply instability and price volatility.
Strategic Consequences: Escalation Signal: Striking a target ~150km from NATO’s key hub in Rzeszow, Poland, demonstrates reach and willingness to escalate near alliance borders.
New Warfare Paradigm: The use of a kinetic hypersonic weapon (Mach 10+) that converts to plasma on impact showcases a shift toward high-tech, long-range precision strikes against economic infrastructure. Long-Term Implications: Restoration could take months and cost billions, directly impacting European energy markets and financing Ukraine’s war effort.
https://x.com/NewRulesGeo/status/2009610781294579826
Posted by: unimperator | Jan 9 2026 14:34 utc | 176
Posted by: ChatNPC | Jan 9 2026 11:44 utc | 162
I posted the same AI answer to a search literally from a the same open refreshed page 2.5 hours apart with differing answers to show how the results are not reliable. It hold my interest to guess why certain answers emerge and how the perception of the reader’s reality may be manipulated by a narrative.
Posted by: frithguild | Jan 9 2026 14:35 utc | 177
“Something is very wrong in our region right now. It’s really bad.
Zelensky, come on, give up.
We need to hand the country over to Putin.
We want to go to Russia.
We are a Russian region.”
https://news-pravda.com/world/2026/01/09/1988042.html
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2026 14:39 utc | 178
The Oreshnik “nuclear capable” narrative seems to have been spiked. It is nowhere in MSM news headlines. Rather this narrative is buried in the body of the reports. Interesting …
Posted by: frithguild | Jan 9 2026 14:42 utc | 179
Posted by: Julian | Jan 9 2026 13:54 utc | 177
Passed some point of economic destruction, printed fiat becomes useless.
You can’t print natural gas. Or generators. Or electricity. Or food. Or workers. Ukraine’s debt is a problem for its creditors, which are primarily the IMF and EU banks. Papering it over with more debt doesn’t help a UAF soldier. And fiat is useless if you can’t buy anything useful with it.
Maybe a shivering, cold Ukrainian soldier can keep warm by burning dollars or euro notes in a trench?
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 9 2026 14:45 utc | 180
Posted by: frithguild | Jan 9 2026 14:42 utc | 185
I noticed the same. Nothing in the MSM. Just like the other one.
When (if?) they finally find an angle it will probably be in line with our Brigitte troll above.
Posted by: Avtonom | Jan 9 2026 14:47 utc | 181
@ Ghost of Zanon | Jan 9 2026 14:45 utc | 186
Some people just get more bitter with each Ukronazi setback. One might, in one’s more charitable moods, pity them.
Posted by: malenkov | Jan 9 2026 14:50 utc | 182
Russia Goes Oreshnik Again – by Larry C Johnson
I don’t know if this is Russia’s promised retaliation for the failed 91-drone attack on December 28, 2025, but the Oreshnik was unleashed for the first time since its debut in 2024, and with devastating effect. Preliminary reports state that the Oreshnik hit the Bilche-Volitsko-Uhersky underground gas storage facility, which has a storage capacity of 17.05 billion cubic meters, which is more than 50% of the total capacity of all storage facilities in Ukraine.
Lvov deputy Igor Zinkevich reported that in the Lvov region, the stoves in the kitchen are barely burning, the boilers have gone out and won’t light up – there’s no gas pressure.
Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Jan 9 2026 15:18 utc | 183
Putin retaliates by attacking something that should have been attacked years ago, as usual. Hardly an act of deterrence. He should have saved that Oreshnik because his flaccid approach to western aggression almost assures he’s gonna need it and a lot more.
Posted by: Maverick | Jan 9 2026 15:28 utc | 184
Re: Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jan 9 2026 14:45 utc | 186
Passed some point of economic destruction, printed fiat becomes useless. You can’t print natural gas. Or generators. Or electricity. Or food. Or workers. Ukraine’s debt is a problem for its creditors, which are primarily the IMF and EU banks. Papering it over with more debt doesn’t help a UAF soldier. And fiat is useless if you can’t buy anything useful with it. Maybe a shivering, cold Ukrainian soldier can keep warm by burning dollars or euro notes in a trench?
Sure, at some point that will become a problem, but it won’t be this decade – maybe in the 2030s.
It is not imminent as in during the course of this war – but maybe in it’s aftermath, but maybe not.
Posted by: Julian | Jan 9 2026 15:46 utc | 185
Putin retaliates by attacking something that should have been attacked years ago, as usual. Hardly an act of deterrence. He should have saved that Oreshnik because his flaccid approach to western aggression almost assures he’s gonna need it and a lot more.
Posted by: Maverick | Jan 9 2026 15:28 utc | 192
Agreed. Western Ukraine should have been the primary target from the start (and I said so at the time), rather than destroying the Ukrainian held parts of Donbas (full of Russians!)
Attack and destroy (non-Russian) Western Ukraine and weaken the resolve for the war far more rapidly than we’ve seen.
Russia might already occupy Odessa and Kiev by now if they’d done this in 2022.
Posted by: Julian | Jan 9 2026 15:49 utc | 186
Interesting stuff.
SlavicFreeSpirit (@SlavFreeSpirit): “Regarding why the Oreshnik doesn’t use explosives, and the Ukrainians are worried about it. Let’s explain. At speeds above 5-6 Mach, the energy reserve in the warhead is greater than the energy reserve in the explosives that can be stuffed into this warhead (for such speeds, it’s no more than 25-30% of the total mass to withstand the overloads). Therefore, there’s no point in using explosives, plus it simplifies the creation of the warhead. The warhead material heats up so much during sudden braking that it partially turns into plasma from this stored energy. And accordingly, without any explosives, an explosion effect is achieved, a fragmentation field from very high-speed droplets of material, which act as micro-cumulative jets directed towards the direction of flight. And this gives a huge penetrating ability.” | nitter.poast.org
Ritter on the latest use of these supersonic missiles.
Ritter thinks it was a warning that the West must heed.
Scott Ritter (@RealScottRitter): “The Camel’s Bloody Nose The other day I wrote a post which made use of an analogy involving a camel and a tent—in short, to keep the camel from entering the tent once it stuck its nose under the tent, one needed to smack it on its nose. Last night Russia punched the camel in the nose. The use of the Oreshnik missile against strategic energy targets located near the western Ukrainian city of Lvov, combined with a massive strike on energy infrastructure targets in Kiev, represents a crystal clear response to the west’s ongoing targeting of Russian energy infrastructure, including CIA-backed drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and US Naval seizures of Russian-flagged oil tankers. The Russian Ministry of Defense likewise linked the Russian attacks to the Ukrainian drone strike that targeted President Putin’s residence late last month. The use of the Oreshnik is always a major escalation not fully appreciated by those who casually encourage its employment. It is only the second time in history that an intermediate range nuclear-capable strategic missile has been used in combat (the first was the initial use of Oreshnik back on November 21, 2024.) This time, the Oreshnik struck a target close to the Ukrainian-Polish border. The signal this attack sent to NATO nations is clear—Russia has the ability to strike NATO nations with impunity using non-nuclear conventional weaponry. NATO has no ability to defend against such an attack. It was interesting that Russia opted to fire the Oreshnik from the Kaputin Yar missile test facility. Russia and Belarus recently announced that an Oreshnik-equipped brigade was put on combat duty at a base in Belarus. But the attack did not originate from this unit. Russia has indicated that it is fielding additional Oreshnik-equipped brigades. Kapustin Yar is a location where the combat equipment of the Oreshnik missile system is married with the personnel operating it for the final training and technical preparation necessary before a unit can be deemed combat ready. The recent Oreshnik launch on Lvov may have been an operational training event repurposed for the purpose of sending a message to the west. This was not a launch from a strategic asset that has been placed on combat duty. This was an operational training event. There is a difference. Russia once again appears to be sending a message to the west that it seeks to limit escalation. This time the camel got a bloody nose. The next time—if there is a next time—the camel may not survive. Let’s hope the west is sophisticated enough to comprehend the message Russia appears to be sending.” | nitter.poast.org
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jan 9 2026 15:53 utc | 187
Posted by: Pete | Jan 9 2026 12:59 utc | 170
This link seems to work:-
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/01/09/mgcr-j09.html
No mention of Makhno? Lenin didn’t have much time for Makhno. Nor Pavlovich, if one can judge from the article. But Makhno was important at the time on the military side.
Makhno also sent grain to Russia but he and Lenin didn’t see eye to eye on the terms. Those Ukrainian resources! Not just grain but everything else. Curse of the country. Oh to live in a country so poor no one wants to grab their stuff! Though, come to think of it, suppose I’m now in that fortunate position, being English.
Enough lamentation. Back to the topic. Petliura also tried to send grain, in his case to Germany under the terms of the treaty, but couldn’t so was replaced by Skoropadskyi. So Petliura ended up fighting the Germans.
Much the same as with Bandera later. Not sending grain but supporting the Germans until he fell out with them. We might see history repeat itself a third time. Today’s Ukrainian ultra-nationalist don’t much like the Europeans – reckon they’re a degenerate lot – but have thrown in their lot with them as a matter of convenience. Now that hasn’t worked out we may well see them doing a Petliura and turning against them.
What the Ukrainians are now recognising is that the Europeans have used them and then betrayed them. The Ukrainians started to pick that up around the time of Vilnius. Statements like “We are not Amazon” were a slap in the face for them after the limitless promises of ’22. Dolchstoß time. The ultras, like most of us, don’t forget grudges. After the war most of them will actually be living in the countries that betrayed them. Expect ructions.
,
,
Posted by: English Outsider | Jan 9 2026 16:05 utc | 188
Posted by: English Outsider | Jan 9 2026 16:05 utc | 196
The “ultra-ukrainian nationalists” (Just call them what they are – Nazis) do not like the Germans or English. Awwww…. poor things. They let the Germans and English and Americans completely brainwash them, corrupt their leaders, and lead them into a horrible nightmare with fantasies and promises of the circa 1950s US good life. They were complete fools.
Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Jan 9 2026 16:14 utc | 189
It is not imminent
Posted by: Julian | Jan 9 2026 15:46 utc | 193
It’s already bubbling away underneath the surface, 3-year bonds issued in 2022 and were due to rollover last year expired without being replaced with new issuance, so that funding no longer exists. There’s also a big pile of 5-year bonds due to mature by the end of Q2/2026, going to need rolling over, at a much higher coupon than pre-SMO 2021 rates, junk rates effectively, with a limited market of potential purchasers.
Don’t forget, it was widely-reported at the time that at least half of the EU-proposed €90 billion bail-out was earmarked to pay off existing outstanding debt. That bail-out only exists in theory at the moment.
There are no other mechanisms for delivering €45 billion to Kiev before the end of Q2/2026.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2026 16:23 utc | 190
@ MAKK | Jan 9 2026 16:32 utc | 199
Yes, all that needs to happen is to shatter the rock structure used to store the gas, sandstone I’m led to believe. Plus, it’s not just the impact, as with Yuzhmash it’s the sheer amount of heat carried by Oreshnik that is extremely damaging.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2026 16:42 utc | 191
The slowdown in the Russian economy is absolutely not ‘controlled’, that is the neccesary official explanation for why the economy is flatlining despite the government literally going into debt doing what is in effect fiscal stimulus. Consider just these production declines (according to Rosstat) :
Sector / Product
Year-over-Year (YoY) Change
Tractor Production
–61.6%
Bulldozer Production
–53.7%
Trucks (Heavy Vehicles)
–53.0%
Elevator Production
–37.2%
Automobile Production
–34.1%
Grain Rail Loading
–33.0%
Construction Materials (Rail Loading)
–21.0%
Ferrous Metals (Rail Loading)
–14.0%
Woodworking Industry
–9.1%
Ans besides that new housing construction is down 19%, titanium production is down over 50% etc and the list goes on. Basically every sector in Russia is currently in a contraction. At the same time most state owned and private companies also have record high debt levels just like the government, and a backlog of investments that are necessary to remain competitive in a global market. This is a compound recipe for economic disaster.
Also consider what the ‘controlled slowdown’ is having the effect of still producing an inflation rate which in reality is probably 20%+ and an interest rate of 16%. This is one of the biggest stagflation events we will see in modern history.
Posted by: Remote Page | Jan 9 2026 17:47 utc | 193
“Care to ‘speculate’ on that?” — Posted by: General Factotum | Jan 9 2026 7:45 utc | 137
REVs shed all their velocity before entering the lower atmosphere.
Posted by: David G Horsman | Jan 9 2026 17:52 utc | 194
@ Remote Page | Jan 9 2026 17:47 utc | 202
Direct link to Rosstat please, not just some LLM copypasta, thank you.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jan 9 2026 17:52 utc | 195
lemozi // 201
Many commenters here won’t have a clue where that quote comes from. Nor will they understand its relevance.
President Putin of Russia has made it clear he thinks that when fighting a group who worshiped Baal in the past, who worships Baal or similar things today in America and also in modern Israel, it is best to enlist the assistance of other, more powerful, entities.
As a personal point of reference, I first bumped into the occult while attending a federal university in Colorado Springs in the state of Colorado. Manitou Springs, not far from Colorado Springs, was an occult center. It may still be for all I know. Living in that area allowed me to meet a handful of people who had left the occult. Typically they would say something like, “I’m not involved with that anymore. I’m not going to talk about it.” I eventually met a man did explain why he left the occult. He had been confronted by something in his apartment. This thing threw him across the room. Not like he stumbled and tripped. He flew through the air and hit the wall on the other side of the room near the ceiling. That was when he realized he had gotten himself involved in something beyond his ability to handle. He gathered up all his occult related material and burned it. His advice? “Don’t touch that stuff.” Over the years since then, I’ve had a few personal experiences myself. Seeing a man’s face briefly transform to reveal something else looking out at me. It didn’t frighten me, but I stood there and thought, “Yep, there it is. I’ve heard about this and now I’ve seen it.”
The reason commenters here do not understand Putin’s approach to the war is because they are ignorant of any larger realities. They have no idea what it means when the Chinese speak of the Mandate of Heaven. The Chinese aren’t Christian. Nor are the Iranians. But they understand why Putin acts the way he does. He is extending peace and mercy to his enemies for the Lord does not want the death of the sinner, but that he should repent and turn from his sins and live. But while the Lord is patient, but his patience will not last forever, and then vengeance and the sword.
Putin knows the powers and principalities which oversee human actions and he treats them with respect. He knows his enemies have powerful allies. By his patience and mercy, Putin seeks to enlist his own allies in the spiritual realm.
You may mock Putin. Fair enough. But you need to understand his worldview, a worldview I share, to understand his actions.
Posted by: Nobody Special | Jan 9 2026 18:02 utc | 196
All of these ‘rapid advancements’ that you mention still amount to taking only 0.8% of Ukraine in 2025. That’s not very much at all, and basically allows Ukraine plenty of time to fortify the rear to further make Russian advances slow. It took Russia over a year to approach and take Pokrovsk, and even then was there a breakthrough? No, they have been fighting on the northern part of the city for the last three months now. You also didn’t mention Kupyansk where Ukraine rolled up a year of Russian advancements in a handful of weeks. Yet you call 0.8% of Ukraine in a year “large scale advancements” its kind of ridiculous. I am almost tempted to use the word cope.
Posted by: Remote Page | Jan 9 2026 18:03 utc | 197
Well attacking the gas storage now when the worst of winter is about to arrive is more strategic than say attacking earlier when alternative arrangements might have been possible. Especially just after the coalition of the willing meeting and final statement…..
Posted by: Jo | Jan 9 2026 18:09 utc | 198
In terms of long range drone attacks, Ukrainian interceptions reached their low point in the summer and have actually increased again as the deployment of drone interceptors is being scaled up and are back up to 80%+ in the most recent attacks (average, various attacks will have variation). There is also the increased deployment of the Ukrainian airforce which will progess. At the same time we have basically not seen an increase in the numbers of drones or missiles used in attacks, which basically high their peak/plateau since the summer as well. And considering the throttle to the Russian economy it will probably not scale much more. I also didn’t mention the USV situation where Ukraine continues to punish the Russian black sea fleet and shipping.
Posted by: Remote Page | Jan 9 2026 18:11 utc | 199
Maybe many Ukrainians understand Europe/America betrayed them?
Maybe Ukrainian understand that their lives would improve if they were part of Russia?
What stops Ukrainians from rebelling?
Posted by: Fredrick | Jan 9 2026 18:20 utc | 200