Mr. Crazy just issued another of his by now typical threats:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump – Jan 28, 2026, 12:12 UTC
A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela. Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary. Hopefully Iran will quickly “Come to the Table” and negotiate a fair and equitable deal – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS – one that is good for all parties. Time is running out, it is truly of the essence! As I told Iran once before, MAKE A DEAL! They didn’t, and there was “Operation Midnight Hammer,” a major destruction of Iran. The next attack will be far worse! Don’t make that happen again. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
It is well know Iran does not want to have nuclear weapons. There is even a religious edict that says so. Iran had negotiated a nuclear deal with the U.S. that made sure that Iran would not have the means to build nuclear weapons. It was Trump who killed that deal during his first administration.
We therefore know that anything nuclear is not the real issue that this is about. The issue is Iran’s general anti-colonial position and especially its steady resistance to the Zionist occupation of Palestine.
Any attempt to change that long held ideological position of Iran by force is likely to fail.
Over the last months the U.S. military has increased its forces in the Middle East. An aircraft carrier fleet is in position (archived), several squadrons of U.S. and British fighters have been deployed to Jordan and Qatar, THAAD and Patriot air defenses have been deployed to provide additional layers of air defenses. U.S. destroyers are in the Mediterranean to support Israel’s air defenses. An attack on Iran will mostly be by cruise missiles fired from outside Iran’s air space. It would also involve long range bombers flown from the U.S.
U.S. war exercises are ongoing.
Iran however is also ready. It has increased its missile forces. It has promised to use it against U.S. positions in the Middle East and against Israel in retaliation to any attack. It has also promised to close the Strait of Hormuz. A large part of the global oil supply is flowing through it. A selective closure, which would for example allow tankers destined for China to pass, is also a possibility. But even a partial prolonged closure would suddenly increase oil and gas prices all over the world. Republican chances to win in the mid-term elections would decrease.
Major Arab U.S. allies in the Middle East have rejected to take part in any adventure against Iran. Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Qatar have explicitly stated that they will not allow U.S. operations against Iran from or through their territory.
The last U.S. attack on Iran came as a surprise while negotiations were still ongoing. It was accompanied by an assassination campaign and local teams on the ground who sabotaged Iranian air defense equipment.
It is unlikely that such a surprise can be again achieved.
Iran retaliated for the attack by launching drones and missiles towards Israel. The first few salvos did little damage but during the last of the 12 days of war Iranian missile were steadily hitting sensitive targets within Israel. The U.S. and Israel were low on air defenses and needed to cease the conflict.
The Iranian response to another attack will be immediately, precise and effective. During the first few days U.S. air defense will help to avoid the biggest damage. But after a week or two concerns about ammunition availability will likely lead to a decrease of missile interceptions. Israel’s vulnerabilities – harbor installations, chemical industry etc – are well know and easy to hit. U.S. ships within range of Iran are likewise endangered.
The arising conflict is unlikely to be as short as the recent 12 day campaign. It could easily escalate into attritional warfare. Unlike Iran Israel has nukes and may be willing to use them. But given Iran’s size and large population it is likely to end up severely damaged, but as a winner.
What Trump wants is another symbolic victory. He has started, like usual, with a gigantic threat in the hope to receive a minor concession that will allow him to chicken out. I doubt that Iran is in the mood to give him whatever he is asking for.
That leaves him the choice to chicken out without winning or to bet the house and his presidency on escalation.
May he chose wisely.