In my last piece on Trump’s assault in Venezuela I pointed out that the plan was missing a piece :
One wonders what the next steps are the U.S. is planning to take. It does not have enough forces to invade Venezuela. Nor would a blockade of the country lead to a change of its government. An internal revolution is unlikely to succeed.
The U.S. gnomes managed to steal the underwear. Now comes step 2. Then profits. That sounds like a good plan.
But nobody seems to know so far what step 2 might entail.
It turns out that phase 2 of this underpants gnomes business plan is to do the same as before (archived):
When asked how the United States planned to govern Venezuela, Mr. Rubio did not lay out a plan for a U.S. occupation authority, like the one that the George W. Bush administration put in place in Baghdad during the Iraq War, but instead spoke of coercing a Venezuelan government run by allies of the jailed leader Nicolás Maduro to make policy changes.
U.S. forces will continue to prevent oil tankers on a U.S. sanctions list from entering and leaving the country until the government opens up the state-controlled oil industry to foreign investment — presumably giving priority to American companies — and makes other changes, he said on “Face the Nation” on CBS News.
“That remains in place, and that’s a tremendous amount of leverage that will continue to be in place until we see changes, not just to further the national interest of the United States, which is No. 1, but also that lead to a better future for the people of Venezuela,” he said.
Nothing changed. Venezuela continues to be governed by Chavistas who adhere to the Bolivarian revolution. It continues to be pressured to let U.S. companies explore its oil. The Chavistas, including Maduro, are willing to allow that but they have certain conditions. Those have not, and I believe will not, change.
The whole bombastic action was a virtual war:
The raid, which took place in what should have been highly contested airspace and was preceded by a minimal or borderline nonexistent SEAD campaign, would only have been possible if the Venezuelan military had received a stand-down order. Maduro, who has been in negotiations with the US for a controlled transition of power since 2024, was either betrayed by the entire Venezuelan power structure or gave himself up willingly, and doesn’t appear to have been in a “fortress” at all at the time of the raid.
What was the point then of the whole operation one might ask. Well, maybe there was none:
There are still many unanswered questions about “Absolute Resolve,” the Pentagon’s name for the operation. What was the precise nature of the deal the Venezuelans made with Trump? Is there cooperation between Rodriguez and the US? Was there any reality to Trump’s promises of a US oil industry takeover and “billions” of dollars of investments in Venezuela? If this event is as virtual as it appears based on the information we currently have, these questions may never be answered explicitly. Instead, the event will simply fade, remaining in a perpetual state of impenetrability, unfathomable and impossible to parse, until largely forgotten.
Or maybe the point was just to show off what the Trump administration might do to others:
In 1992, American conservative writer Michael Ledeen reportedly said: “Every 10 years or so, the United States needs to pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business.”
Actually, such gratuitous demonstrations of might betray the fear that American world power is slipping. Beating up a weaker opponent to prove your strength is the action of an insecure bully.
Venezuela is likely to welcome U.S. oil companies which are willing to invest in the country. But it will be nothing like the bonanza Trump seems to envision. Venezuelan oil is heavy and costly to retrieve. One needs dilution fluids or steam to bring it to surface and to transport it to markets. With global oil prices expected to stay around $50 per barrel there is little incentive for the necessary multi-billion investment.
I expect that after this weekend’s action nothing will change. The U.S. does not want to govern Venezuela. It doesn’t want to put boots on the ground. The blockade, an act of war, will continue for a while but at some point the ships will have to go back to their harbors. As there is nothing to win from this the Trump administration will move towards its next target.
Meanwhile Israel is getting ready for another strike on Iran. The U.S. is repositioning troops to the Middle East while Iran prepares to hit back with all its might.
In a week from now Venezuela will likely be out of the headlines while business as usual continues.