Just two days ago I opined that the riots in Iran would lead nowhere.
Iran Shrugs Off Another Round Of U.S./Israel Sponsored Regime Change Riots – MoA, Jan 10 2026
I especially pointed out that the U.S. had delivered Starlink satellite terminals to organizers of the riots – 40,000 of them is a rumored number – but that the Iranian government had acquired the means to detect them and to shut down their traffic.
Just a day later Forbes reports that the government did indeed used its new tools:
‘Kill Switch’—Iran Shuts Down Starlink Internet For First Time – Forbes, Jan 11 2026
The Iranian government did not bother to track down single terminals but used the new Russian and Chinese equipment to shut down all Starlink traffic in Iran. Packet loss rates of 90% have made the connections unusable.
Today pro-government marches are held in all major cities of Iran. They are much bigger than anything the opposition could ever assemble. The Iranian system has again demonstrated that it is astonishingly stable. Not one official has changed side.
The riots are, for now, over. The streets tonight will likely be quiet. During the next weeks the riot leaders and instigators will be tracked down and punished – harshly one hopes in sight of the casualties on the government side.
The total blocking of Internet traffic and international phone communication in Iran was the decisive step taken to end the riots.
Without Internet access the CIA/Mossad agents directing the rioters were unable to command and control their on-the-ground forces. The lack of ‘horror’ propaganda videos from Iran, submitted via the Internet and used by the media to rake up support for western intervention, is also important. Color-revolutions à la CIA require these tools.
In 2022 the wave of U.S. induced protests in Iran took nearly three month before it subsided. This wave, started on December 28 by a massive short-selling attack on Iran’s currency, took just two weeks before it died down.
Trump, who had threatened to bomb Iran in support of the rioters, will have to pull back. The U.S. military says that it is not ready (archived) for the revenge Iran would unleash on it.
The failing of this regime change attempt shows that the methods used in it have become too obvious and can be countered. It will likely take a while before new methods are developed and new attempts will be launched.