Yesterday U.S. President Donald Trump was ready and willing to bomb Iran. The most important target would have been the Supreme Leader, Ajatollah Khamenei.
But Iran was ready and Khamenei safe. The U.S. military, in contrast, was not ready to defend against the inevitable retaliation that would have come out of Iran. There are only three destroyers with air-defenses in the area that could offer protection against a ballistic missile onslaught. A few minutes after the first strikes their arsenals would have been empty.
Before the last bombing of Iran THAAD and Patriot air defenses from the U.S. and South Korea had been flown to the Middle East. A U.S. carrier group was stationed nearby and U.S. bases had been depopulated. The military was able to provide Trump with somewhat reasonable options.
U.S. allies, most importantly Israel but also some Gulf countries, were fully on board.
This round was way different.
The military was unable to give any good options for strikes. It had to ask Trump to stand down.
The Gulf countries were anxious and did not want to be part of a campaign:
“Bombing Iran goes against the calculus and interests of the Arab Gulf States,” said Bader al-Saif, an assistant history professor at Kuwait University. “Neutralizing the current regime, whether through regime change or internal leadership reconfiguration, can potentially translate into the unparalleled hegemony of Israel, which won’t serve the Gulf States.”
Even Israel suggested to wait until the ‘regime’ breaks down.
That is not going to happen.
The internal configuration of the Islamic Republic has made ‘regime change’ nearly impossible. A majority of the country and the security forces support the country’s political structure. No bunch of paid terrorists, who shoot at random people as well as security forces, can break that connection.
In consequence, at least for now, Trump chickened out.