U.S. President Donald Trump made a big mistake when he threatened war on Iran.

He was doing that to get concessions from Iran which the country is unable to make.

Trump asks for:

1. a complete de-nuclearization of Iran,
2. strong limits on its missile programs,
3. the abolishment of Iranian support for regional allies like Hizbullah, Hamas and Shia militia in Iraq and Yemen and
4. the recognition by Iran of Israel as a legitimate country.

Under the current system of Iran any politician who would argue for or agree to making any such concessions would immediately lose legitimacy.

Trump has made threats. He then set out conditions that guarantee that he will not get what he wants. He now has two choices:

• To attack Iran until it concedes something.
• To chicken out and recall his fleet from Iran.

Neither is a good choice:

Iran has announced to retaliate for any attack by massive missile launches against Israel and U.S. positions in the Middle East. Iran has also stated that it would close the Strait of Hormuz and thereby cause sky high global oil prices. This would likely lead to heavy losses for the Republicans in the mid term elections and would eventually end up with new impeachment procedures against Trump.

To chicken out would is also not be a good choice. By resisting a threat from Trump to then see the threat retracted without having made concessions Iran would have set an example that future targets of Trump’s extortion schemes would surely follow. It would make Iran look stronger and Trump look weaker.

I am by far not the only one who makes these points.

As Axios reports:

Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman (KBS) said in a private briefing on Friday in Washington that if President Trump doesn’t follow through on his threats against Iran, the regime will end up stronger, four sources in the room tell Axios.
…
“At this point, if this doesn’t happen, it will only embolden the regime,” KBS said, according to the sources in the room.
…
In a separate briefing on Friday, a Gulf official said the region was “stuck” in a position where the U.S. striking Iran risked “bad outcomes,” but not doing so would mean “Iran will come out of this stronger.”

Prince Khalid bin Salman has a realist’s view and is right with this analysis.

The Axios reporter though, Barak Ravid, – well known to be a Zionist asset -, is trying to turn that realist view KBS uttered into a Saudi argument for bombing Iran:
Cont. reading: Zionist Distorts Arab Analysis As Arguing For Attack On Iran

Anatol Lieven and Mark Episkopos are historians with expertise on Russia who work for the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. They just published a Policy Note which attempts to answer:

Frequently Asked Questions About the Russia–Ukraine Negotiations.

Unfortunately the answers given miss the mark. They are not founded in reality and do not reflect the positions of the negotiating parties.

The first question the policy note tries to answer is:

Has Russia made concessions in the negotiation process?

Its answer:

Yes. Russia has made significant concessions.

Russia has agreed to lift all objections to Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, marking a major shift from its position before and after the 2014 Euromaidan revolution.

Before the Euromaidan putsch the EU was offering an association agreement, not accession or membership, to Ukraine. This would have opened Ukrainian markets to tariff free EU products. At the same time Ukraine had a Free Trade agreement with the Commonwealth of Independent States, i.e. nine former Soviet republics including Russia. At that time some 60% of Ukraine’s foreign trade was with Russia and other CIS countries.

Russia opposed the EU Association Agreement for Ukraine because it would have exposed Russia to EU products without any tariff or custom barrier. It stated that it would have to close the open border with Ukraine if the agreement with the EU were signed. In consequence President Yanukovich of Ukraine had to reject the agreement:

[A] Ukrainian government decree suspended preparations for signing of the association agreement; instead it proposed the creation of a three-way trade commission between Ukraine, the European Union and Russia that would resolve trade issues between the sides. Prime Minister Mykola Azarov issued the decree in order to “ensure the national security of Ukraine” and in consideration of the possible ramifications of trade with Russia (and other CIS countries) if the agreement was signed on a 28–29 November summit in Vilnius. According to Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Yuriy Boyko Ukraine will resume preparing the agreement “when the drop in industrial production and our relations with CIS countries are compensated by the European market, otherwise our country’s economy will sustain serious damage”.

After the Ukraine government had paused the Association Agreement, the U.S. and EU activated their proxy forces to launch the Maidan coup to then impose the trade agreement. The violent putsch was successful. Russia closed its open border to Ukraine, the Ukrainian economy, especially its heavy industry, suffered immensely, but the association agreement was signed.

Russia thus did not make a “major shift from its position before and after the 2014 Euromaidan revolution.”

The circumstances on which the position was based have changed. Russia has adopted accordingly. A membership of Ukraine in the EU is by the way still not on offer. It will take a decade or longer after the war for Ukraine to even be marginally qualified.

Lieven and Episkopos continue:

Cont. reading: Ukraine – Quincy Paper Praises A Peace Agreement Which Isn’t On Offer

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Mr. Crazy just issued another of his by now typical threats:

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump – Jan 28, 2026, 12:12 UTC

A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela. Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary. Hopefully Iran will quickly “Come to the Table” and negotiate a fair and equitable deal – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS – one that is good for all parties. Time is running out, it is truly of the essence! As I told Iran once before, MAKE A DEAL! They didn’t, and there was “Operation Midnight Hammer,” a major destruction of Iran. The next attack will be far worse! Don’t make that happen again. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

It is well know Iran does not want to have nuclear weapons. There is even a religious edict that says so. Iran had negotiated a nuclear deal with the U.S. that made sure that Iran would not have the means to build nuclear weapons. It was Trump who killed that deal during his first administration.

We therefore know that anything nuclear is not the real issue that this is about. The issue is Iran’s general anti-colonial position and especially its steady resistance to the Zionist occupation of Palestine.

Any attempt to change that long held ideological position of Iran by force is likely to fail.

Over the last months the U.S. military has increased its forces in the Middle East. An aircraft carrier fleet is in position (archived), several squadrons of U.S. and British fighters have been deployed to Jordan and Qatar, THAAD and Patriot air defenses have been deployed to provide additional layers of air defenses.  U.S. destroyers are in the Mediterranean to support Israel’s air defenses. An attack on Iran will mostly be by cruise missiles fired from outside Iran’s air space. It would also involve long range bombers flown from the U.S.

U.S. war exercises are ongoing.

Iran however is also ready. It has increased its missile forces. It has promised to use it against U.S. positions in the Middle East and against Israel in retaliation to any attack. It has also promised to close the Strait of Hormuz. A large part of the global oil supply is flowing through it. A selective closure, which would for example allow tankers destined for China to pass, is also a possibility. But even a partial prolonged closure would suddenly increase oil and gas prices all over the world. Republican chances to win in the mid-term elections would decrease.

Major Arab U.S. allies in the Middle East have rejected to take part in any adventure against Iran. Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Qatar have explicitly stated that they will not allow U.S. operations against Iran from or through their territory.

The last U.S. attack on Iran came as a surprise while negotiations were still ongoing. It was accompanied by an assassination campaign and local teams on the ground who sabotaged Iranian air defense equipment.

It is unlikely that such a surprise can be again achieved.

Iran retaliated for the attack by launching drones and missiles towards Israel. The first few salvos did little damage but during the last of the 12 days of war Iranian missile were steadily hitting sensitive targets within Israel. The U.S. and Israel were low on air defenses and needed to cease the conflict.

The Iranian response to another attack will be immediately, precise and effective. During the first few days U.S. air defense will help to avoid the biggest damage. But after a week or two concerns about ammunition availability will likely lead to a decrease of missile interceptions. Israel’s vulnerabilities – harbor installations, chemical industry etc – are well know and easy to hit. U.S. ships within range of Iran are likewise endangered.

The arising conflict is unlikely to be as short as the recent 12 day campaign. It could easily escalate into attritional warfare.  Unlike Iran Israel has nukes and may be willing to use them. But given Iran’s size and large population it is likely to end up severely damaged, but as a winner.

What Trump wants is another symbolic victory. He has started, like usual, with a gigantic threat in the hope to receive a minor concession that will allow him to chicken out. I doubt that Iran is in the mood to give him whatever he is asking for.

That leaves him the choice to chicken out without winning or to bet the house and his presidency on escalation.

May he chose wisely.

Remember that crazy Venezuelan guy Nicolás Maduro?

He was the elected president with the somewhat crazy belief that the CIA was out to remove him.

As CNN writes:

It remains to be seen how the Venezuelan people will respond to a more overt CIA presence in the country post-Maduro. For years, Maduro cast the CIA as a convenient boogey man, repeatedly accusing the agency – without evidence – of attempting to topple his regime as he clung to power despite US opposition.

As CNN‘s language implies – the guy really was a bit crazy – unless that is you read the followup sentence of the CNN‘s report:

Now, the CIA has helped supplant Maduro and is poised to help actively manage the Trump administration’s dealings with Venezuela’s new leadership.

So the ‘boogeyman’, which was ‘accused’ ‘without evidence’. did what it was ‘cast’ as doing.

biggerDo these propagandist ever even notice what they write?

After the Immigration and Custom Enforcement goons executed an unarmed man in the streets of Minnesota the Trump administration did a full court press to claim the man was a terrorist, had intended to kill officers and had been illegally carrying a weapon.

Vice President Vance, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, Trump policy leader for immigration Stephen Miller, FBI chief Kash Patel, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and others all made false claims about the case.

Their words were an attack on constitutional rights under the 1st, 2nd and 4th amendment.

Multiple videos of the incident were out in the public and everyone was able to see that what really had happened were crimes committed by multiple ICE agents. Every newspaper and channel which discussed the video called out the lies by the Trump administration.

The false narrative coming from the White House turned out be a huge own-goal. It has become a complete unnecessary public relation disaster for the Trump administration.

It was why I asked Why Is Trump Causing His Own Downfall?

Republican representatives started to oppose the ICE operation. The National Rifle Association, and other pro-Trump gun lobbies, protested against the administration’s position:

“The FBI director needs to brush off that thing called the Constitution, because he clearly hasn’t read it,” National Association for Gun Rights President Dudley Brown told POLITICO. “I know of no more crucial place to carry a firearm for self defense than a protest.”

FBI Director Kash Patel said Sunday on Fox News that “You cannot bring a firearm, loaded, with multiple magazines to any sort of protest that you want. It’s that simple. You don’t have a right to break the law.” DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said Saturday that she didn’t “know of any peaceful protester that shows up with a gun and ammunition rather than a sign.” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Monday that “any gun owner knows” that carrying a gun raises “the assumption of risk and the risk of force being used against you,” during interactions with law enforcement.

Gun-rights groups rushed to push back on an administration that was breaking with conservative orthodoxy on the right to bear arms in public places.

Seasoned Homeland Security officers vented their frustration.

Alex Pretti, the victim of the ICE assault, was killed on Saturday. It took until noon of Monday for Trump to acknowledge the mess and to attempt to chicken out.

The FT headlines: Donald Trump signals shift on immigration crackdown as ICE backlash intensifies (archived):

Cont. reading: Immigration Enforcement – Trump Is Losing And Chickens Out

The White House seems to do everything possible to help the Republicans to lose their majorities in the midterm elections.

Trump’s tariff policies have guaranteed that prices for $3 Trillion in U.S. imports will rise by at least 10%. His energy policies have caused 6% price rises for electricity and gas.

His move against allies to grab Greenland is unpopular. Bombing Iran and abducting the President of Venezuela was not welcome.

Sending heavily armed Brownshirts into U.S. neighborhoods to apprehend or assassinate random people is likewise disliked.

Trump’s approval rating is sinking.

biggerOne would assume that Trump would notice the upcoming ballot disaster and change course. But instead of calming the waves he is pouring oil onto fire:

Cont. reading: Why Is Trump Causing His Own Downfall?

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Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:

• Jan 19 – Trump Will Take Greenland … And Then Go For More
  Related:
  – Trump at Least for Now TACOed Over Greenland at Davos in Rambling Speech as His Poll Ratings Continue to Fall – Naked Capitalism
  – Trump’s Turnabout on Greenland Shows the Limits of His Coercive Powers (archived) – NY Times
  – Was it never about Greenland and mainly about the Fed? – Adam Tooze
  – US must have rights to Greenland’s resources as it defends its territory — vice president – TASS

• Jan 20 – Ukraine – The Mood Is Changing – Pep Songs Are No Longer Welcome
  Related:
  – Mass attack that plunged Kyiv into darkness cost Russia over $130 million, Ukrainian intelligence says – Kyiv Independent
  – Zelenskyy: Repelling Russian attack cost €80m, Russia now has more missiles – Pravda.ua
  – 80% of Ukraine faces emergency power cuts following Russia’s overnight aerial attack, focused on Kyiv – Kyiv Independent
  – The Kremlin is weaponizing winter (archived) – Washington Post
  – Ukraine strikes oil depot in Russia’s Penza Oblast, other military sites, General Staff confirms – Kyiv Independent
  – Ukraine Hits Belgorod Thermal Plant in Possible HIMARS Strike – Kyiv Post
  – France seizes Russian tanker – Telegraph
  – Ukraine is on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe. DTEK declares need for energy truce (in Russian) – Strana

• Jan 21 – Carney Declares Death Of The ‘Rules-Based Order’
  Related:
  – We Are Witnessing the Self-Immolation of a Superpower – Wired
  – Pentagon’s new defense strategy pulls forces abroad to focus on homeland (archived) – Washington Post
  – A note on the ridiculous 2026 “National Defense Strategy” – Michael Tracey

• Jan 23 – A ‘Left’ Cover-Up Of Regime Change Failure
  Related:
  – The Hawks’ New Plans for Iran Are Disastrous – American Conservative
  – Iran’s Government Defends Its Crackdown (archived) – Seyed Abbas Araghchi / WSJ
  – Will He, Won’t He ‘TACO’ on Iran? Conflicts Forum

—
Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-022

Today’s daily Links page at Yves’ Naked Capitalism pointed to a piece about Iran published by Sidecar, the blog-site of the New Left Review.

Neither NLR nor Sidecar are on my daily reading list though I have linked to several Sidecar piece in my Week-In-Review collection.

According to its About page:

The criteria for publication on Sidecar will be saying something – about persons, processes, events, structures – that is not being said elsewhere, but deserves to be.

The Sidecar piece linked via Naked Capitalism, Scylla and Charybdis by Eskandar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi, certainly does NOT match that criteria.

The piece is about the recent regime change protest in Iran and the government reaction to it. Its take on the course of action by either side reads like a direct copy from a CIA controlled main stream outlet.

There is little mentioning of rioters or violent protesting in it:

Cont. reading: A ‘Left’ Cover-Up Of Regime Change Failure

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Yesterday Mark Carney, a former central banker and now Prime Minister of Canada, gave a remarkable speech (video, transcript) at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

It is an attack on the ‘international rules-based order’, the concept that the imperial Western nations have promoted and used to justify their myriad deviations from, and abuses of international law:

For decades, countries like Canada prospered under what we called the rules-based international order. We joined its institutions, praised its principles, and benefited from its predictability. We could pursue values-based foreign policies under its protection.

We knew the story of the international rules-based order was partially false. That the strongest would exempt themselves when convenient. That trade rules were enforced asymmetrically. And that international law applied with varying rigour depending on the identity of the accused or the victim.

This fiction was useful, and American hegemony, in particular, helped provide public goods: open sea lanes, a stable financial system, collective security, and support for frameworks for resolving disputes.

So, we placed the sign in the window. We participated in the rituals. And largely avoided calling out the gaps between rhetoric and reality.

This bargain no longer works.

Let me be direct: we are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.

The concept of the rules based order, a lie in itself, was useful for the proxy forces and vassals of the global hegemon as long as they themselves were not threatened by its consequences.

But as that hegemon has turned on those vassals who supported it, the concept has become dangerous and must be discarded:

Cont. reading: Carney Declares Death Of The ‘Rules-Based Order’

There are first signs that the people of Ukraine are changing their attitude towards the war.

In Winter Strikes Kiev I explored how Russian strikes against infrastructure in Ukraine would change the mood of the population:

During the war the parts of the Ukrainian population that were not directly involved in fighting seemed to have little interest in what was happening. There was still a lot of nightlife in Kiev, all goods were available and even the few short interruptions of electricity were not much to bother with.

This will now change. Electricity is off for most of the time. Shops are closing because running business on generators is unprofitable. Local public transport is mostly down. Longer range tail transport is interrupted. Apartments are unlivable. The consequences of the war have become personal.

This will change the mood even of those who want to prolong the war. The numbers of those willing to accept the loss of territory in exchange for peace will rise.

After a while a change of policies will follow from this.

Last night another wave of missile and drone strikes hit electricity and heating infrastructure in Kiev and other Ukrainian cities. It caused sever additional damage:

The strike on energy infrastructure left consumers in Kyiv and the surrounding region, as well as in Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Rivne, and Kharkiv oblasts, without power, the Energy Ministry said.

Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, said that more than 335,000 people lost electricity in Kyiv. At around 10 a.m. local time, power had been restored to 162,000 homes, while about 173,000 remained without service.

In Kyiv, 5,635 buildings remain without heating, or about 46% of the city’s housing stock.
…
The right bank of Kyiv, the western part of the city, is receiving water at reduced pressure, while about 3,500 homes on the left bank remain completely without water, according to the deputy minister.

Heat has been restored to about 1,600 buildings. The other 4,000 will have to freeze at least through the night.

The people in Ukraine are now changing their mood and attitude towards the war. Until recently many were still optimistic hoping that the war would have some positive outcome. It was patriotic (and did not cost anything) to have a positive attitude. Ukrainian media, largely under censorship, and Ukrainian artist supported this.

One such artist is the famous pop singer Tina Karol (Wiki, website, Youtube, TikTok, Instagram, Twitter).

Cont. reading: Ukraine – The Mood Is Changing – Pep Songs Are No Longer Welcome

U.S. President Donald Trump wrote a letter the Prime Minister of Norway, Jonas Gahr Støre. Staff at the National Security Council delivered copies of the letter to European ambassadors in Washington DC.

A copy was provided to a Newshour journalist:

Dear Ambassador:

President Trump has asked that the following message, shared with Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, be forwarded to your [named head of government/state]

“Dear Jonas: Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America. Denmark cannot protect that land from Russia or China, and why do they have a “right of ownership” anyway? There are no written documents, it’s only that a boat landed there hundreds of years ago, but we had boats landing there, also. I have done more for NATO than any other person since its founding, and now, NATO should do something for the United States. The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland. Thank you! President DJT”

Trump will continue to demand Greenland until something is done by Europe to decisively stop him.

Cont. reading: Trump Will Take Greenland … And Then Go For More

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