Yesterday’s negotiations between U.S. President Donald Trump and the acting President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelenski about a peace agreement with Russia went nowhere (archived):
A new round of peace talks between President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and President Trump seem to have produced little beyond a promise to meet again next month and a reminder of how distant a peace deal remains.
…
After the meeting on Sunday, Mr. Trump signaled that he would remain engaged in the negotiations — a win for Ukraine given his repeated threats to walk away. Mr. Trump also backed away from setting another deadline to reach a peace deal, after having previously floated Thanksgiving and Christmas as target dates.“I don’t have deadlines,” Mr. Trump told reporters as he greeted Mr. Zelensky at Mar-a-Lago in Florida for the talks. “You know what my deadline is? Getting the war ended.”
Two weeks ago we were expecting this outcome:
The current negotiated parameters can not lead to a peace agreement with Russia.
The Trump administration needs to take a step back. It can deliver the currently negotiated package to Russia which will study it and ask for negotiations of ‘details’ that will take several years to find some end point. Or it can put the whole issue aside for now and go for a retry in six to twelve months.
…
By then resistance to a peace agreement, be it by Ukraine or Europe, will have decreased. Only then will peace in Ukraine and Europe become a real possibility.
A big win for Russia during this round of negotiations is that Trump has rejected the ceasefire which Zelenski and his European supporters have tried to impose to then prepare for a new round of fighting:
WASHINGTON, December 29. /TASS/. US President Donald Trump said he agreed with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, that a ceasefire amid arrangements for holding a referendum in Ukraine would not work.
Reporters asked the US leader to share the details of his phone call with Putin regarding whether Russia had agreed to a ceasefire for the period of holding a referendum in Ukraine. “Not a ceasefire, and that’s one of the points that we’re working on right now. No, not a ceasefire. He (Putin – TASS) feels that. Look, you know, they’re fighting, and to stop, and then if they have to start again, which is a possibility. He doesn’t want to be in that position. I understand that position,” Trump said at a joint press conference with Vladimir Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida on December 28.
The speed of progress Russian troops are making has increased. During the last weeks several significant Ukrainian cities – Kupiansk, Siversk, Pokrovsk, Myronograd, Huleipole – have fallen into Russian hands. The Ukrainian command seems to ignore this reality. It took weeks to admit that Siverks had fallen. It still claims to hold ground in Myrnograd and Huleipole. It loudly claims a successful counteroffensive in Kupiansk while its troops there get bombed to smithereens.
Meanwhile Russia has widely succeeded in de-energizing Ukraine. Electricity in Ukraine’s big cities is limited to less than 12 hours per day. The countryside has largely been turned off completely. Central heating and water supply barely function.
The Russian side keeps emphasizing that its attacks on infrastructure in Ukraine are in retaliation for Ukrainian drone attacks on oil processing facilities in Russia. Russia has a significant overcapacity in the refining business. It can afford the losses the Ukrainian side is able to inflict. Ukraine however can not afford a total blackout. Nevertheless it continues its self-destructive efforts.
The war has gone on much longer than I had expected nearly four years ago. The reasons were a very careful Russian campaign that had tried to avoid civilian casualties and damage on one side and, on the other side, an immense amount of support Ukraine has received from its allies.
Both parameters are changing. The campaign to de-energize Ukraine is hurting those civilians who so far could avoid to be impacted by the war. The U.S. has largely stopped its delivery of weapons to Ukraine. The Europeans are cutting back their provisions of arms and money.
In the new year we can expect that the Ukrainian public willingness to continue the war will break down. At the same time the Ukrainian army efforts to defend against Russian onslaughts will falter. Troops will revolt, commanders will leave their positions.
But when, where and how this will end are still open questions.