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Russia Is In A Security Dilemma – Europe Pretends To Be In One
Yesterday the President of the Russian Federation took part in an extended board meeting of the Ministry of Defense.
This is a yearly event meant to recap the developments in the military sphere over last year and to give a high level outlook of the future. This goes from strategic overview to details of operations. It touches on weapon supplies, technical development, medical, social and housing issues of the military. The addressee is mainly the Russian military but also the national and international public.
President Vladimir Putin spoke first, followed by a detailed presentation by Defense Minister Andrey Belousov followed by another Putin talk. Both Putin parts are available in English at the Kremlin site. Belousov’s presentation is only available in the Russian language transcript of the event. Karlof1 has put up an English machine translation of all parts at his website. There is also a video of the event available with English live translation.
The whole thing is lengthy.
The most important point, in my opinion, of Putin and Belausov said is about the potentially upcoming conflict with NATO. Russia feels threatened!
This from Putin’s first part [emph. add.]:
We are aware that that the Kiev regime is backed by the potential of the countries comprising the world’s largest military-political bloc, NATO. Large-scale military assistance is being continuously provided, with advisers, instructors, and mercenaries dispatched, and intelligence data shared.
…
Today, we can see that the geopolitical situation remains tense throughout the world, and even critical in some regions. NATO countries are actively building up and modernising their offensive forces, and creating and deploying new types of weapons, including in outer space.
Meanwhile, people in Europe are being indoctrinated with fears of an inevitable confrontation with Russia, with claims that preparations must be made for a major war. Various figures who have held or continue to hold positions of responsibility appear to have simply forgotten what that responsibility entails.
They are whipping up hysteria, guided by momentary, personal or group political interests rather than the interests of their people. I have said many times that this is a lie and an irrational narrative about an imaginary Russian threat to European countries. But they are doing this deliberately.
The truth is that Russia has always, until the last possible moment tried, even in the most complicated circumstances, to find diplomatic solutions to differences and conflicts. Responsibility for the failure to use these chances lies squarely with those who believe that they can use the language of force with us.
We continue to call for developing mutually beneficial and equal cooperation with the United States and European countries, and for creating a joint security system in the Eurasian region. We welcome nascent progress in our dialogue with the new US administration, which cannot be said of the current leaders of the majority of European countries.
At the same time, we realise that our Armed Forces remain the key guarantor of Russia’s sovereignty and independence in any international situation. As I have stated, we must work consistently to strengthen them.
Belousov echos this (machine translation, emph. add.):
Analysis of the military-political situation shows that threats to military security have changed significantly over the past three years. The North Atlantic Alliance continues to build up its coalition forces, actively preparing for the deployment of intermediate-range missiles, updating the range of nuclear weapons, modernizing air and missile defense, and changing the system of mobilization deployment. The efficiency of the transfer of alliance troops to the eastern flank is increasing, for which it is planned to introduce the so-called military “Schengen”.
Military spending is increasing significantly. Today, the alliance has an annual budget of $ 1.6 trillion. Taking into account its gradual increase to five percent of the national GDP, the NATO budget will grow by more than one and a half times – up to $ 2.7 trillion.
All this indicates that NATO is preparing for a military clash with Russia. The alliance plans to achieve readiness for such actions by the turn of the 2030s. This was repeatedly openly stated by official representatives of the NATO bloc. We don’t threaten – we are threatened.
In accordance with the significant threats to military security, the construction of modern and high-tech Armed Forces is being carried out. I will focus on the most important points. …
Followed by Putin in his second part with regards to Ukraine:
They engineered a coup, initiated military operations, and deliberately – I am convinced, deliberately – precipitated a war.
President Trump has said that had he been in office at the time, none of this would have happened. He may well be right. Because the previous administration deliberately brought matters to an armed conflict. And I think the reason is clear: they believed Russia could be swiftly broken up and dismantled. European “swine underlings”1 immediately joined the efforts of that previous American administration, hoping to profit from our country’s collapse: to reclaim what had been lost in earlier historical periods and to exact a form of revenge. As has now become evident to all, every one of those attempts, every destructive design against Russia, has ended in complete and total failure.
Russia has demonstrated its resilience in the economy, finance, domestic politics, the state of society, and, ultimately, in its defence capability.
…
And our Armed Forces are on the rise. I repeat, much remains to be done, but it will all be done. We have always stated – and I want to reaffirm this – that we remain ready for negotiations and ready to resolve all the problems that have arisen in recent years through peaceful means. The United States administration has demonstrated such readiness, and we are engaged in dialogue with it. I hope the same will eventually occur in Europe. It is unlikely with the current political elites, but it will be inevitable as we continue to strengthen, if not with the present politicians, then with a change of political elites in Europe.
1 ‘swine underlings’ is a verbal translation from the Russian [под-свинки] ‘under-pigs’. It means ‘small piglets’ who are completely depending on the mother sow.
Russia is much smaller than a united NATO. It has way less people and money. NATO countries are arming up. Their populations are actively manipulated into seeing Russia as THE enemy. Russia is in a security dilemma:
[A] security dilemma is when the increase in one state’s security leads other states to fear for their own security. Consequently, security-increasing measures can lead to tensions, escalation or conflict with one or more other parties, producing an outcome which no party truly desires; a political instance of the prisoner’s dilemma.
Europe pretends to be in a security dilemma. There is no way that Russia, with half the population size of the Soviet Union and without Warsaw Pact allies, could march to Berlin. It is completely unrealistic to say that Russia is a danger for the rest of Europe.
But when Belousov says “we are threatened” he is stating a fact.
Posted by: xor | Dec 18 2025 20:23 utc | 112
In regards to access to the Baltic Sea (Finland/Estonia) or Kaliningrad (Lithuania), I don’t see how Russia would fight a conventional war here because it would be outmatched by NATO as a whole. Even if you take the significant recent military experience and mobilized Russian society into account.
In February 2022, UAF vastly outnumbered Russian troops available. Didn’t help them. True, Russia did get the advantage of an unexpected attack (by forestalling the imminent UAF attack on Donbas) but the Russian Army has shown to be capable. Recall that UAF and the fortified cities have been prepared for this war over years, and Ukraine got support from all of NATO. Even all non-US NATO troops combined would perform on the level of the UAF, in my opinion (a big part is that Ukrainian brains have been prepared to kill Russians for decades).
I don’t think there will be classical “conventional wars” in the near future. We can have skirmishes between ships or, more likely, drone/missile attacks on ships, and we can have drone saturation in any particular place. EU is more vulnerable than Russia is. For example, what if EU/NATO decides to block off the Baltic Sea to Russia but then Russia announces that Skagerrak and/or Kattegat are no longer safe for civilian ships? Sweden, Finland, Poland, Germany, the Baltic statelets would be immediately heavily affected.
I think the only viable option for Russia here would be to level this insignificant NATO periphery with nuclear weapons and assume the rest of NATO will back off preferring there own lives instead of risking MAD.
Russia is, like China, the adult in the room, and will avoid use of nuclear weapons as long as possible (at least with the current government; Putin’s successor team may think differently). There is a reason Belarus showed pictures of Oreshnik missiles today.
One scenario I can see if push truly comes to shove: Russia reminds the world of the Enemy States Clause in the UN Charter, and that it considers Germany to be an enemy. This, followed by pre-announced, conventional missile strikes against German infrastructure is a rung on the escalation ladder that could happen, if Merz keeps impersonating the Evil German. Fun fact: mainstream rag Spiegel had this awesome headline today: “Wie Merz in Russland zur Hassfigure aufgebaut wird” (“How Merz is being set up as a figure of hate in Russia”); no link because paywall and 100% trash. It’s especially funny if you know how Spiegel and mainstream media in general has been reporting about Putin in the last, let’s say 15 years 🙂
I think Russia would be willing to sacrifice Moldova/Transnitria if need be but not Kaliningrad which is part of the RF. If it were at jeopardy and to save it, Russia can’t stroll through the 3 Baltic villages each having a population of medium cities, because NATO, then glazing those 3 barking villages would be the only remaining option.
I hope we don’t have to see it but are you sure that NATO states will go all in for Lithuania? “Mourir pour Dantzig?” –> “Mourir pour Vilnius?” The much-talked about Article 5 means *nothing*.
I am sure that Russia is able to secure Kaliningrad and Baltic seafare using only conventional means (including drones and missiles), if needed.
Posted by: Konami | Dec 18 2025 21:08 utc | 126
President Trump has said that had he been in office at the time, none of this would have happened. He may well be right. Because the previous administration deliberately brought matters to an armed conflict. And I think the reason is clear: they believed Russia could be swiftly broken up and dismantled. European “swine underlings”1 immediately joined the efforts of that previous American administration, hoping to profit from our country’s collapse: to reclaim what had been lost in earlier historical periods and to exact a form of revenge. As has now become evident to all, every one of those attempts, every destructive design against Russia, has ended in complete and total failure.
Posted by b on December 18, 2025 at 15:37 UTC | Permalink
Just because Putin endeavors to maintain a degree of diplomatic politeness to hopefully induce America and its vassals to cease their aggression towards Russia doesn’t mean that Putin believes Trump to be meaningfully different from previous American administrations, as our dear host b wants to imply judging by b’s decision to emphasize certain parts of Putin’s speech.
Russian interests are being attacked right now by America under the auspices of Trump, though these attacks are far likelier to be outright direct dictates from the president himself.
Russia Issues ‘Fatal Mistake’ Warning to Trump Admin Over Venezuela, Newsweek, By Dan Gooding and Jason Lemon, Dec 18, 2025 at 10:05 AM EST
Russia’s Foreign Ministry issued a new warning to the Trump administration on Thursday amid escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela.
“We note continuous and deliberate attempts to escalate tensions with our ally Venezuela. Unilateral decisions creating a threat to international shipping are particularly alarming,” the ministry said in a statement, per Russia’s Tass news agency.
“Hopefully, the Trump administration, known for pursuing a rational and practical policy course, will stop short of making a fatal mistake and refrain from escalating things down a path that may cause unpredictable consequences for the entire Western Hemisphere.”
Rising Russian naphtha exports to Venezuela at risk after Trump orders blockade of sanctioned tankers, Reuters, December 17, 2025 5:29 AM EST
Because Russia uses sanctioned vessels to deliver its naphtha cargoes to Venezuela, traders warn these ships could be redirected to other destinations in search of new buyers.At least one vessel, Benin-flagged tanker Boltaris, which was carrying around 32,000 metric tons of Russian naphtha bound for Venezuela, made a U-turn late last week and is now heading for Europe without having discharged, LSEG data showed.
After the U.S. on Russia’s largest oil companies in October, however, and pressured India to reduce Russian oil imports, naphtha loadings from Russian ports to Asian destinations fell by about 15% last month to around 800,000 tons, LSEG and market sources data showed.
In contrast, shipments to Latin America surged. According to the data, naphtha export loadings from Russian ports to Venezuela jumped in November to 190,000 metric tons from 35,000 tons in the previous month.
U.S. Weighs New Oil Sanctions on Russia if Putin Rejects Peace Deal, OilPrice.com, By Charles Kennedy – Dec 17, 2025, 10:30 AM CST
Now the U.S. is already considering how to escalate the sanctions. The Treasury could target additional vessels of the Russian shadow fleet transporting oil, as well as traders found to have facilitated such transactions, according to Bloomberg’s sources.
The sanctions could be announced later this week, some of these sources told Bloomberg.
The previous round of U.S. sanctions – the Trump Administration’s first against Russia – are still reverberating through the global oil markets as they upended trade flows. The sanctions designated Russia’s top two producers and exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil, and sent Indian buyers scrambling for non-sanctioned crude and Lukoil’s international assets fighting for U.S. waivers to continue normal operations and negotiate asset sales.
Sanctioned Tanker Reaches Venezuela After Being Tracked by US Destroyer, The Maritime Executive, Published Nov 24, 2025 3:31 PM
A sanctioned tanker reached the anchorage in Venezuela on Sunday, November 23, after having turned away several times when a U.S. destroyer appeared on its route. Maritime AI data analytics firm Windward reports it is part of a continuing growth in Russian imports supporting Venezuela’s oil operations.
The ship followed a second sanctioned tanker that also arrived in Venezuela over the weekend. The Russian-flagged product tanker Vasily Lanovoy (49,999 dwt) had departed Russia’s Ust Luga on October 28 and arrived at Venezuela’s Jose Terminal on November 23 without incident. The vessel, which was built in 2016, has been in the Russian registry since 2023 and is reported to be owned by the Russian construction company TransStory and managed by Gazprom. It was sanctioned by the U.S. in May 2024 and in the third quarter of 2025 by both the EU and the UK. It was also transporting a Russian light oil to be used as a distillate.
Russian Oil Risks Being Stuck at Sea Amid US Sanctions, Bloomberg, By Weilun Soon and Yongchang Chin, Updated on November 21, 2025 at 1:49 PM UTC
US sanctions that came into force on Friday are set to leave almost 48 million barrels of Russian crude stranded on the water, pushing dozens of tankers to scramble for alternative destinations in the latest overhaul of the global oil trade.
Trump says Putin talks ‘don’t go anywhere’ as he imposes new sanctions, BBC, Bernd Debusmann Jr at the White House, Max Matza and Ian Aikman, 23 October 2025
The US has announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s two largest oil companies in an effort to pressure Moscow to negotiate a peace deal in Ukraine.
The announcement came one day after US President Donald Trump said a planned meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Budapest would be shelved indefinitely.
“Every time I speak to Vladimir, I have good conversations and then they don’t go anywhere,” Trump said.
Trump cultists will undoubtedly blame all these actions on the shadowy Deep State. The devil made me do it! An unseen entity controlling your every action—what a convenient tool for shifting blame. Trump is forced to become yet another Biden by continuing Biden’s policies against Russia. Trump is powerless against the machinations of the Deep State, just like how the American voters who brought Trump into power are simultaneously powerless to remove the ineffectual leader that is Trump from power.
Incidentally, for the deluded fools who believe that America has finally given up on being the global hegemon who dictates how everyone else should run their affairs or that America’s recent tactical retreat from Iran means that America has given up its nefarious imperial designs on Iran, here’s some fresh news to prove those fools wrong:
US imposes sanctions on 29 ‘shadow fleet’ tankers carrying Iranian oil, Reuters, By Timothy Gardner and Doina Chiacu, December 18, 2025 4:55 PM UTC
The United States imposed sanctions on Thursday on 29 vessels and their management firms as Washington targeted Tehran’s “shadow fleet”, which it says exports Iranian petroleum and petroleum products.
Treasury will “continue to deprive the regime of the petroleum revenue it uses to fund its military and weapons programs,” John Hurley, the department’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said in a release.
The U.S. seized a tanker known as Skipper on December 10 off the coast of Venezuela that had been carrying crude from the South American country, a move that sharply escalated tensions between Washington and Caracas.
The administration of former President Joe Biden imposed sanctions on the tanker in 2022 for what it says was involvement in trading Iranian oil when the ship was called the Adisa.
Death to America
Marg bar Âmrikâ
Marg bar Âmrikâ
Marg bar Âmrikâ
Posted by: All Under Heaven | Dec 18 2025 22:09 utc | 169
President Trump has said that had he been in office at the time, none of this would have happened. He may well be right. Because the previous administration deliberately brought matters to an armed conflict. And I think the reason is clear: they believed Russia could be swiftly broken up and dismantled. European “swine underlings”1 immediately joined the efforts of that previous American administration, hoping to profit from our country’s collapse: to reclaim what had been lost in earlier historical periods and to exact a form of revenge. As has now become evident to all, every one of those attempts, every destructive design against Russia, has ended in complete and total failure.
Posted by b on December 18, 2025 at 15:37 UTC | Permalink
Just because Putin endeavors to maintain a degree of diplomatic politeness to hopefully induce America and its vassals to cease their aggression towards Russia doesn’t mean that Putin believes Trump to be meaningfully different from previous American administrations, as our dear host b wants to imply judging by b’s decision to emphasize certain parts of Putin’s speech.
Russian interests are being attacked right now by America under the auspices of Trump, though these attacks are far likelier to be outright direct dictates from the president himself.
Russia Issues ‘Fatal Mistake’ Warning to Trump Admin Over Venezuela, Newsweek, By Dan Gooding and Jason Lemon, Dec 18, 2025 at 10:05 AM EST
Russia’s Foreign Ministry issued a new warning to the Trump administration on Thursday amid escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela.
“We note continuous and deliberate attempts to escalate tensions with our ally Venezuela. Unilateral decisions creating a threat to international shipping are particularly alarming,” the ministry said in a statement, per Russia’s Tass news agency.
“Hopefully, the Trump administration, known for pursuing a rational and practical policy course, will stop short of making a fatal mistake and refrain from escalating things down a path that may cause unpredictable consequences for the entire Western Hemisphere.”
Rising Russian naphtha exports to Venezuela at risk after Trump orders blockade of sanctioned tankers, Reuters, December 17, 2025 5:29 AM EST
Because Russia uses sanctioned vessels to deliver its naphtha cargoes to Venezuela, traders warn these ships could be redirected to other destinations in search of new buyers.At least one vessel, Benin-flagged tanker Boltaris, which was carrying around 32,000 metric tons of Russian naphtha bound for Venezuela, made a U-turn late last week and is now heading for Europe without having discharged, LSEG data showed.
After the U.S. on Russia’s largest oil companies in October, however, and pressured India to reduce Russian oil imports, naphtha loadings from Russian ports to Asian destinations fell by about 15% last month to around 800,000 tons, LSEG and market sources data showed.
In contrast, shipments to Latin America surged. According to the data, naphtha export loadings from Russian ports to Venezuela jumped in November to 190,000 metric tons from 35,000 tons in the previous month.
U.S. Weighs New Oil Sanctions on Russia if Putin Rejects Peace Deal, OilPrice.com, By Charles Kennedy – Dec 17, 2025, 10:30 AM CST
Now the U.S. is already considering how to escalate the sanctions. The Treasury could target additional vessels of the Russian shadow fleet transporting oil, as well as traders found to have facilitated such transactions, according to Bloomberg’s sources.
The sanctions could be announced later this week, some of these sources told Bloomberg.
The previous round of U.S. sanctions – the Trump Administration’s first against Russia – are still reverberating through the global oil markets as they upended trade flows. The sanctions designated Russia’s top two producers and exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil, and sent Indian buyers scrambling for non-sanctioned crude and Lukoil’s international assets fighting for U.S. waivers to continue normal operations and negotiate asset sales.
Sanctioned Tanker Reaches Venezuela After Being Tracked by US Destroyer, The Maritime Executive, Published Nov 24, 2025 3:31 PM
A sanctioned tanker reached the anchorage in Venezuela on Sunday, November 23, after having turned away several times when a U.S. destroyer appeared on its route. Maritime AI data analytics firm Windward reports it is part of a continuing growth in Russian imports supporting Venezuela’s oil operations.
The ship followed a second sanctioned tanker that also arrived in Venezuela over the weekend. The Russian-flagged product tanker Vasily Lanovoy (49,999 dwt) had departed Russia’s Ust Luga on October 28 and arrived at Venezuela’s Jose Terminal on November 23 without incident. The vessel, which was built in 2016, has been in the Russian registry since 2023 and is reported to be owned by the Russian construction company TransStory and managed by Gazprom. It was sanctioned by the U.S. in May 2024 and in the third quarter of 2025 by both the EU and the UK. It was also transporting a Russian light oil to be used as a distillate.
Russian Oil Risks Being Stuck at Sea Amid US Sanctions, Bloomberg, By Weilun Soon and Yongchang Chin, Updated on November 21, 2025 at 1:49 PM UTC
US sanctions that came into force on Friday are set to leave almost 48 million barrels of Russian crude stranded on the water, pushing dozens of tankers to scramble for alternative destinations in the latest overhaul of the global oil trade.
Trump says Putin talks ‘don’t go anywhere’ as he imposes new sanctions, BBC, Bernd Debusmann Jr at the White House, Max Matza and Ian Aikman, 23 October 2025
The US has announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s two largest oil companies in an effort to pressure Moscow to negotiate a peace deal in Ukraine.
The announcement came one day after US President Donald Trump said a planned meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Budapest would be shelved indefinitely.
“Every time I speak to Vladimir, I have good conversations and then they don’t go anywhere,” Trump said.
Trump cultists will undoubtedly blame all these actions on the shadowy Deep State. The devil made me do it! An unseen entity controlling your every action—what a convenient tool for shifting blame. Trump is forced to become yet another Biden by continuing Biden’s policies against Russia. Trump is powerless against the machinations of the Deep State, just like how the American voters who brought Trump into power are simultaneously powerless to remove the ineffectual leader that is Trump from power.
Pay attention to the dates of the news reports and the causality chain as well. America chokes off the India market for Russian oil, forcing Russia to turn to Venezuela. Then, by choking off Russian naphtha import that’s needed to process Venezuelan crude, America is not only killing Venezuela’s economy but also Russia’s, killing two birds with one stone.
Incidentally, for the deluded fools who believe that America has finally given up on being the global hegemon who dictates how everyone else should run their affairs or that America’s recent tactical retreat from Iran means that America has given up its nefarious imperial designs on Iran, here’s some fresh news to prove those fools wrong:
US imposes sanctions on 29 ‘shadow fleet’ tankers carrying Iranian oil, Reuters, By Timothy Gardner and Doina Chiacu, December 18, 2025 4:55 PM UTC
The United States imposed sanctions on Thursday on 29 vessels and their management firms as Washington targeted Tehran’s “shadow fleet”, which it says exports Iranian petroleum and petroleum products.
Treasury will “continue to deprive the regime of the petroleum revenue it uses to fund its military and weapons programs,” John Hurley, the department’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said in a release.
The U.S. seized a tanker known as Skipper on December 10 off the coast of Venezuela that had been carrying crude from the South American country, a move that sharply escalated tensions between Washington and Caracas.
The administration of former President Joe Biden imposed sanctions on the tanker in 2022 for what it says was involvement in trading Iranian oil when the ship was called the Adisa.
Death to America
Marg bar Âmrikâ
Marg bar Âmrikâ
Marg bar Âmrikâ
Side note: Redid my comment as it has been hidden, probably because it has too many links. It’s interesting that b will make it appear that my comment has been successfully posted, although checking with another device will reveal that it’s not the case.
Posted by: All Under Heaven | Dec 18 2025 23:13 utc | 196
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