@JRL 101 – yes, very much so. I’ve been puzzled by this forever. And the Russkies do it. A prime example is the SU-27 supermaneuverable airframe, which has been continued in many variations since, including the much heavier side-by-side two-seater SU-34. Or the T-72 chassis. 

Posted by: persiflo | Nov 27 2025 21:02 utc | 103

Posted by: Micron | Nov 27 2025 20:58 utc | 102
 
#####
 
What has Putin retreated on?
 
Talking is not retreating unless we’re talking about Trump.
 
What territory has Ukraine taken back in 3 years with all of NATO behind them?
 
Nothing.
 
Ukraine hasn’t even managed to slow the bleeding after 3 years.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 27 2025 21:05 utc | 105

@ Micron | Nov 27 2025 20:58 utc | 102
 
Not sure what your reply had to do with the content of my post, but never mind, I’m sure it made you feel important anyway.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 27 2025 21:08 utc | 107

It’s not so much that one weapon is a failure – it’s that the ‘west’ is now incapable of producing effective weapons.  …
Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Nov 27 2025 19:56 utc | 92
 
A really interesting perspective. From a German perspective, I had previously thought that it made no sense to neglect the education system, the healthcare system and infrastructure, to put pension funds into the speculative market, to let cultural terrorists into the country and feed them, not to promote the development of the internal market, but to become the world champion of exports through low wages, supported by cheap Russian energy sources, which we are not only giving up, but also making Russia our mortal enemy, while at the same time renouncing nuclear power and losing ourselves in fantasies. …
But all that is missing, then, are the right weapons to outsource the consequences of the co-production of madmen and subjects.
 
Of course, the question remains: why do you need weapons when you can buy what you want completely risk-free?
The financial sector dominates democracies. This is also reflected in the arms industry. You earn more with what you promise than with what you deliver.
But why do you need weapons as long as adventurers don’t want to put themselves in danger?

Posted by: BlindSpot | Nov 27 2025 21:14 utc | 109

@ persiflo | Nov 27 2025 21:02 utc | 103
 
Indeed it was the T-72 that was at the front of my mind while writing my post.
 
I’m really not much of a military wonk, so I get completely lost in all the different suffixes and variants that have been developed on that chassis, both by the Soviet Union and latterly the Russian Federation, but clearly they understand that, if something works and works tolerably well, there is no need to completely throw it away just because it’s old, just upgrade and update as necessary.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 27 2025 21:28 utc | 111

Britain’s top military chiefs held a “very difficult” meeting this week over how to fund plans to rebuild the armed forces amid fears of further cuts, defence sources have said.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) played down a report in the Spectator magazine that the top brass, led by Air Chief Marshal Sir Rich Knighton, the chief of the defence staff, planned to write an extraordinary joint letter to John Healey, the defence secretary, to explain that his defence review published in June cannot be delivered without more cash.

“There is not a letter,” an MoD source said, adding that such a communication was not expected to be received either.
However, other sources from within the army, navy and air force confirmed to Sky News there is growing concern among the chiefs about a gap between the promises being made by Sir Keir Starmer’s government to fix the UK’s hollowed-out armed forces and the reality of the size of the defence budget, which is currently not seen as growing fast enough.
That means either billions of additional pounds must be found more quickly, or ambitions to modernise the armed forces might need to be curbed despite warnings of mounting threats from Russia and China and pressure from Donald Trump on the UK and the rest of Europe to spend more on their own defences.

Posted by: Jo | Nov 27 2025 21:49 utc | 113

@JRL 111 – counting all the variants of the T-72 which are around today would be a major intellligence effort probably best left to Jane’s Fighting Vehicles. I wrote as inconspicuously as I could about the chassis specifically, though I have no idea about the history of various additions such as engine, drivetrain or main gun over time. Anyway, we see the same thing. 

Posted by: persiflo | Nov 27 2025 22:05 utc | 115

Forgotten? But still valid: The Enemy States Clause = UN Charter 57, 77, 107
 
In all the discussions about the war in Ukraine, one thing seems to have been forgotten, whether intentionally or unintentionally: the so-called enemy state clause = UN Charter 57, 77, 107
 
China’s warning about Japan’s statement drew my attention to this today.
 
What does it say? See WIKI  https://unric.org/de/charta/The enemy states clause is a clause in Articles 53 and 107, as well as a half-sentence in Article 77 of the Charter (or Statute) of the United Nations (UN), according to which coercive measures could be imposed on so-called enemy states of the Second World War by the signatory states without special authorization by the UN Security Council if the enemy states were to pursue an aggressive policy again. The enemy state clauses were officially declared “obsolete” by Resolution 49/58 of the General Assembly on December 9, 1994, but the passage remains in the Charter. They also included military interventions. Article 53 defined “enemy states” as those states that were enemies of a signatory state to the UN Charter during the Second World War (i.e., primarily Germany and Japan, or the German Reich and the Japanese Empire, cf. Axis powers).
 
Now, WKI states, “In today’s international politics, the enemy state clause no longer plays a role. According to the prevailing opinion in international law, it has (long since) become obsolete.”
But that is not the case. China expressly points out that it remains valid as far as the US, Russia, and China are concerned, but also for the other victorious powers.
This applies to the war in Ukraine and the Western warmongers, especially Germany. So be sure to read up on it!  – Red also https://www.rt.com/news/628592-why-chinas-warning-matters/ Why China’s warning matters more than any UN reform debate
Translated by Deep L and Google
 
 
 

Posted by: smartfox | Nov 27 2025 22:07 utc | 117

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 27 2025 21:05 utc | 105
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 27 2025 21:08 utc | 107
 
Please, do not reply to that very stupid fucking liar. He is an agent provocateur not worth a reply, imho.
 
What could be interesting though would be to save his brillant forecasts. And to publish them again some time in the future. On internet nothing gets lost if we care about it.

Posted by: Naive | Nov 27 2025 22:16 utc | 119

❗️🇷🇺👉🏁🏴‍☠️ NATO and the European Union, as crazy as it may seem, have begun preparing for a major war with Russia, said the Russian ambassador to Belgium, Denis Gonchar.
 
🇷🇺👉🇪🇪🏴‍☠️🇪🇺 Maria Zakharova advised calling the paramedics from the psychiatric hospital for Kaja Kallas after her words that Russia has attacked 19 countries in the last 100 years:

“Now I understand why journalists at the briefing today asked me to comment on the US Secretary of State [Marco] Rubio’s refusal to meet with her — it’s unsafe.”

Z and V:🇷🇺 🇷🇺 👉🇪🇺🏴‍☠️🇺🇦 Russia does not see Europe at the negotiating table on Ukraine, Grushko said. He noted that the EU leadership is doing everything to prevent a peaceful solution on Ukraine.The EU is excluding itself from the peace process; its current position contradicts the goals of achieving peace.‼️🇷🇺 🇷🇺 👉🇪🇺🏴‍☠️🏁 The EU is preparing for direct military confrontation with Russia, said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko:

“The main content of the military construction policy of NATO countries and the European Union subordinated to it consists in preparing the economy, infrastructure, logistics, society, and military organization for direct armed conflict with Russia.”

🤡🇪🇺🏴‍☠️👉🇷🇺 The European Union will begin developing the 20th package of sanctions against Russia in early 2026, reports Politico.

❗️🇵🇱🏴‍☠️ Poland plans to increase the production of 155mm caliber artillery shells by 30 (!) times in the coming yearsThis was stated by the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense of Poland, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz.

❗️🇷🇺 Putin proposed launching a large-scale program to equip the CSTO forces with Russian weapons that have proven effective in combat.

Hmm a slightly to different perspective

In the West, the peaceful deal on Ukraine has turned into a pie that everyone is trying to divide‘Any agreement with Russia on Ukraine must protect American security interests, and I feel that this is not even being discussed. 80,000 American soldiers in Europe, and we are witnessing an increase in Russian attacks in Europe. Sabotage in Poland, Russian drones over American military facilities in Europe. The Russians are helping Maduro in Venezuela, there are Iranians, there are North Koreans. This is more important. We must ensure that this agreement protects the USA. This is not a deal for the sake of a deal’ — former US State Department official Heather Conley.@Slavyangrad

The most interesting thing is that the Americans intensified peace talks exactly at the moment they realized how much the situation on the front line was playing into Russia’s hands.
The line of combat contact has been stable for a long time, Russia’s advance is methodical, in most cases without excesses, yes, with losses and difficulties (there are no wars without them at all), but the initiative has long been on the Russian side. There is no urgent need for Russia to change anything drastically — everything is going according to plan and generally at the right pace. Maybe not as fast as desired, but tolerable.
Let’s take Guliaipole as an example. This node is the key to the southern direction. As soon as the city is taken (and it is a matter of time), the Ukrainians will have to retreat to the next more or less fortified defensive line. And this line, considering the pressure on Orekhov and Pokrovskoe in the Dnepropetrovsk region, may be significantly further west than commonly thought.
By winter, the process will accelerate. Strikes on energy infrastructure, increasing Russian attention to the logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and in the future should provoke Syrskyi to reconsider the defensive strategy. He will be forced to save the remnants of the front by surrendering cities rather than holding territory. Plus, by spring 2026, the consequences of reduced Western aid will begin to show — without supplies, the Ukrainian army will lose its main trump card — high mobility, which was provided by equipment deliveries from overseas.
Washington clearly feels the approaching limit. The fuss around the “peace plan” reveals the fear that Kiev’s reserves are dwindling, and all incoming equipment is burning out faster than it arrives. The Americans understand that if Russia breaks the Ukrainian defense now, the meaning of negotiations for Russia disappears, and reaching the Dnepr and Zaporozhye will not be such a fantastic task (currently, Zaporozhye is only 25 km from Stepnogorsk and 55 km from Mala Tokmachka). This can only be stopped by direct NATO intervention with all the consequences, so they will try to persuade Moscow by all means right now.
“Military Chronicle”
@Slavyangrad

Posted by: Jo | Nov 27 2025 22:24 utc | 121

I want to do some brillant forecasts:
1) The ukronazis will not take back Krasnoarmeisk.
2) The ukronazis in the Dimitrov cauldron (it is said some 2000 of the best trained ukronazis) will be captured or exterminated. I prefer they will not surrender like the cowards azovites in Mariupol.
3) All attempts to send reserves to Kupiansk will fail.
4) All attempst by the ukronazis to take back Volchansk will fail.
5) Guliaipolie will be liberated.
6) The two famous euronazis will not stop posting their lies on MoA.

Posted by: Naive | Nov 27 2025 22:30 utc | 123

Posted by: smartfox | Nov 27 2025 22:07 utc | 117

Oh, Wikipedia!  Of course the Enemy State clause is “obsolete” according to the “prevailing opinion”, the exact opinion which also just so happens to back the “rules-based order”.  If it’s still in the Charter, it’s not obsolete.  For reasons.  Who would have thought it might come in handy again some 80 years later?

Posted by: Nervous German | Nov 27 2025 22:32 utc | 125

Posted by: smartfox | Nov 27 2025 22:07 utc | 117

Oh, Wikipedia!  Of course the Enemy State clause is “obsolete” according to the “prevailing opinion”, the exact opinion which also just so happens to back the “rules-based order”.  If it’s still in the Charter, it’s not obsolete.  For reasons.  Who would have thought it might come in handy again some 80 years later?
Posted by: Nervous German | Nov 27 2025 22:32 utc | 125
 
And of course the clauses of unification
 
Article 5, Paragraph 3 of the treaty, signed in September 1990 by the two Germanys and the four Allied powers (US, UK, France, and the Soviet Union), contains the following conditions: 
 

• No Foreign NATO Forces or Nuclear Weapons: “Foreign armed forces and nuclear weapons or their carriers will not be stationed in that part of Germany or deployed there” (the territory of the former German Democratic Republic and Berlin).
• German Forces Only: After the withdrawal of all Soviet forces (completed by August 1994), only German armed forces assigned to NATO structures could be stationed in the former East Germany.
• Conventional Role: These German forces could not have nuclear weapon carriers and any conventional weapon systems with non-conventional capabilities had to be equipped only for a conventional role in that area.
• Sovereignty Context: The treaty did, however, affirm the united Germany’s right to belong to alliances like NATO, which meant the territory of the former GDR was covered by NATO’s security guarantees (like Article 5). 

So we’re talking of charter free strikes and cause for retaking (at least eastern part) of germany. The polish should be very careful on not giving reasons for a kalingrad -DDR corridor through gdansk, landlocked poland would be an expensive price for playing dumb and dumber
 
Meanwhile fresh Marat
https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/brief-frontline-report-november-27th
As I mentioned earlier, encirclements and penetrations underway (sounds dirtier than it should)
 
 

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 27 2025 23:03 utc | 127

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 27 2025 23:03 utc | 127

While I personally would love to agree, there will be no symbolic GA resolution nor a UNSC vote to allow Russia to do whatever is implied by your analysis.

Posted by: Nervous German | Nov 27 2025 23:05 utc | 129

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 27 2025 22:08 utc | 118
 
False premise.
 
This is not a fanboy game. 
 
The immediate premise is that you have the Donbast Oblast under attack. In January, 2022, There were 200.000 Ucrania Army ready to obliterate the Lonbas and Lugants oblasts, had not the RF Army would take the decision to defend the basic spots. 
 
Which are the basic spots?
 
First, and for all, the Nuclear centers. Chernóbil was taken in the first week, but then was clear of the the something.
 
One of the first intention from the UE and the USA is to touch the Zaporicha Nuclear Power Plant. This is one of the best soviet nuclear plant who is able to make, with its thermal capacity, the amount of electricity to make 6 x 3000 MW of capacity.
 
Make the sum, and be humil and make the sum: Yes. This monster is not operating at his best, but the thing is this monster, able to produce, 1,8 GW, without money. This a NNP that at 10% of capacity is running the lights of Kiev. Hey! The lights of Kiev and not the Moscaw’s lights. 
 
If the RF’staff would want to destroy Ucranie, They only have to destroy the energetic pool. That’s why Surovikin was made diluid to Africa. Now, the every christian VV, permits, in this particular circumstance, make a choice to the other side.
 
We are clear: make the things right, Mr. President. we know you are, more or less, submitted, but you have a the chance to be the most astounding nobel president to make from this mess, a real fact.
 
Gonna say:
 
Thank you, Mr. President.
 

Posted by: Zamn | Nov 27 2025 23:08 utc | 131

Posted by: Nervous German | Nov 27 2025 23:05 utc | 129
Incidentally, the Chinese see things differently in relation to Japan. The interpretation that is widespread here is only a Western one, once again depending on who has the authority to interpret it, and this no longer the west.

Posted by: smartfox | Nov 27 2025 23:15 utc | 133

depending on who has the authority to interpret it, and this no longer the west.
Posted by: smartfox | Nov 27 2025 23:15 utc | 133

I fully agree.

Posted by: Nervous German | Nov 27 2025 23:17 utc | 135

Anatoly Shariji: ‘The documents and evidence of theft is accumulating, accumulating, accumulating’
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mXqzrcnyNA
 
“The documents and evidence of theft is accumulating, accumulating, accumulating. This is very serious, painstaking work that will ultimately lead to the end of these devils…”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Nov 27 2025 23:34 utc | 137

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 27 2025 21:31 utc | 112
Mark Sleboda also restrained from calling it a collapse, but things usually crumble for a while before collapsing. Next up is the collapse of north-south river bank north of Gulyapole and road to Zaporozhye is open. 
As an addendum to Unimperator I would like to offer the following which seems to be related to the general battlefield situation.
I began writing this post in regard to the Trumpian Peace Pan, but that seems to be no longer of any real importance.  Nerveless, as an addendum to
From what I can glean from Western MSM and from the more informed comments here on MoA there are now three peace plans to be considered by the various involved nations and entities.

• The Trump Peace Pan (TPP) which was viewed by Ukraine and Europe as being far to favourable to Russia. Accordingly, it has undergone some serious modifications, but any details of this new plan (TPP-2) have yet to be revealed.

• The European/Coalition of the Willing (COW) Peace Plan (EU-COW PP), which seems to require the RF relinquish all its recent battlefield gains and probably Crimea as well. Presumably this plan will-in consultation with Ukraine and the US partners also undergo some minor alterations before being finalised.

• The Putin Peace Plan (PPP). The guts of this have been articulated since the start of the SMO, and in fact well before that when the RF tried (but failed) so get a sensible western response to its diplomatic overtures in 2021. Tw PPP comprises the following crucial elements-

• The four predominantly Russian oriented oblasts in east Ujraine plus Crimea revert totally to the RF;

• Ukraine must remove nazi influence from its political processes;

• Ukraine must adopt a government which is not overtly hostile to the RF or discriminatory towards its Russian speaking population;

• There must be substantial reduction in the size and offensive potential of the Ukrainian armed forces;

• Ukraine must abandon any aspirations to join NATO.

This plan has not substantially changed over the course of the SMO.
 
At present there appears to be no end to the discussions between various western countries and Ukraine on how to agree on some plan that they can present to the RF.  Apparently, the basic points of the PPP. have escaped the esteemed western leaders and “diplomats”, but without seriously addressing these issues they will have zero chance of engaging the RF in meaningful negotiation-whether to establish a real framework for peace or to continue the war.  I strongly suspect that these western diplomatic blather merchants have wasted their own time and that of a god number of others with a real interest in the Ukraine situation.
As I type this (28 Nov. 2025) the RF army is slowly and methodically demolishing the Ukrainian/NATO fortress belt built over the last decade, and it seems only a matter of time till the UAF (or its remnants) is forced to the river where I imagine the COW countries hope to “freeze the conflict. They are dreaming-there is no way the RF will fall for that BS again so that Ukraine and the COW’s gain time to re=arm the UAF.
No, before long the Russian army will cross the Dnieper in force (probably at three or more places) and force the Ukrainian army -and their European backers- into some decisive engagements. In SW Ukraine. Obviously Odessa and the Black Sea coast would be the primary RF object, but that as may be, the substantial weakening of the Ukraine army will be a prerequisite for the removal of nazi influence and demilitarization.  Establishment of a Russo-tolerant government and pledge to abandon NATO aspirations can come later. After some sensible peace deal has been reached.

Just how involved the U, and more specifically the COW countries become involved in truly kinetic activity will be crucial to how the conflict ends. It would be hoped that the RF would do its best to prevent a wider European war. But I fear that elements in the EU have been heavily infected with a MAD COW disease of some type so I will make no predictions.

To end here, the only viable peace plan is the PPP which the Russian armed forces appear to be implementing forcibly.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Nov 27 2025 23:48 utc | 139

Alexander Mercouris: ‘No More Concessions’
 
https://www.youtube.com/@AlexMercouris/videos
 
“Moscow says NO concessions for Ukraine peace; No agreement with US on any plan; Siversk about to fall.”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Nov 27 2025 23:58 utc | 141

Showing continued delusion from the EU
 
NATO Chief Rules Out Russian Veto On Ukraine Joining Alliance, Erecting Barrier Toward Peace
 

“Russia has neither a vote nor a veto over who can be a member of NATO,” Rutte said in an interview with El País and German outlet RND.

 
Give Rutte a gun and send him to the front line

Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 28 2025 0:13 utc | 143

Please pray the peace process is successful.  We desperately need this.  Russia does not.  If this is not ended now, Russia will force even worse terms on us.  We are in dire straits here. Russia may not even allow us to survive.  Prayer is needed. God help us!!

Posted by: B.Poster | Nov 28 2025 0:20 utc | 145

You haven’t been around for long here, have you? MoA is  a bit more cultured, we go full Thucydides “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must” 
Posted by: Newbie | Nov 27 2025 23:20 utc | 136

 
Oh, I’ve been around here some time.  And this discussion is recurring like mosquitoes on a muggy summer night.  Have you not yet reached the conclusion that the only language the so-called cultivated, civilized West understands is that of power politics, the normative power of the factual (Jellinek)?  Has Putin not shown utmost restraint and repeatedly sought every single avenue of diplomacy possible until the very eve of the SMO?  Is not China trying to tell the collective West and its east Asian satellites to back off in the starkest diplomatic ways imaginable, yet there is NATO all over the Strait of Taiwan?
 
At the end of the day, it always comes full circle Clausewitz:  War is policy by other means.

Posted by: Nervous German | Nov 28 2025 0:39 utc | 147

Has Putin not shown utmost restraint and repeatedly sought every single avenue of diplomacy possible until the very eve of the SMO?  Is not China trying to tell the collective West and its east Asian satellites to back off in the starkest diplomatic ways imaginable, yet there is NATO all over the Strait of Taiwan? At the end of the day, it always comes full circle Clausewitz:  War is policy by other means.
Posted by: Nervous German | Nov 28 2025 0:39 utc | 147
 
I’d go for a james bond moment, “Do you expect me to talk?” “No, Mr. Bond, I expect you to die”
 
All western countries are well past their “best before” date (freshest being the us and this is just a pause for them IMHO) , the difficult part is to manage the wait until they have to take it fully in without things going Big Bada Boom
 
You can’t shoot grandpa just because he’s senile and rude, particularly if grandpa is holding some TNT sticks
 
But every once in a while you must remind him , no soup if you don’t calm down.
 
Most people at MoA (and ROW) would rather not get a “I went to thermonuclear war and all I got was this lousy T-Shirt (and enough radiation to die in a few hours)” , that’s why we just say calm down (as RF and china do so often to the west)
 
Lately we have fewer (thank god) trigger happy “nuke them all” posters, but we’d gladly have them here if we got kallas and other crazy euros away from serious decisions.
 
You mentioned Clausewitz, but he knew a government can set wise or foolish objectives – these are matters for policy. But whatever their goals they should constantly seek to understand what war can and cannot achieve and the costs and risks involved.
 
China, RF, know the risks of ww3, the west (particularly euros) seem to just ignore it.
 
China, RF, know what they can, and can’t do at a given moment and situation, the west (particularly euros) seem to just ignore facts and just grab the pipe.
 
Clear?
 
 
 
 

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 28 2025 1:09 utc | 149

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 28 2025 1:09 utc | 149

No, not clear… lol.  What I wrote does not contradict your claim of RF/China knowing their capabilities and limits while the West doesn’t, because I never brought that up nor does it invalidate my thesis that might makes right and the Russian elite is slowly getting comfortable with the idea.  Then you point at the trigger-happy posts here, but they come in 57 varieties and only very few reflect the thermo-nuclear keyboard warrior.
 

But whatever their goals they should constantly seek to understand what war can and cannot achieve and the costs and risks involved.  …  China, RF, know what they can, and can’t do

Now it gets interesting.  We haven’t seen China in action yet, though whatever Taiwan scenario would be a much easier home game to China than Ukraine is to Russia.
 
We’ve seen Russia in action, and while you may agree to the notion that the rationale of the slow-motion character of the SMO is  (a) to save men and materiel,  and (b) to bleed the EU dry (since every day of supporting “Kyiv” costs them billions of sunken euros and wasted economic potential),  and (c) to buy China time for its potential standoff against Taiwan and a floating Western logistics nightmare,  and (d) to build a standing Russian army the world has never seen, some decisions are questionable — there are dozens of more or less qualified experts in this forum alone on the matter, and with all due rage against Western leaders’ incompetency, all of them are still just talking (while sinking money and weaponry in Ukraine).  Of course they are overstating their abilities.  Of course they are wishful-thinking-out-loud.  Of course they are desperate, since they are cornered, even more so with every new sunrise, especially if a second front opens in the Strait of Taiwan; or a third in the Strait of Hormuz.
 
So, please tell me where I was ignoring facts…

Posted by: Nervous German | Nov 28 2025 1:37 utc | 151

Posted by: Nervous German | Nov 28 2025 1:37 utc | 151

“China time for its potential standoff against Taiwan ”

Shows you don’t know much about China then. It’s not about Taiwan against China but western and their doggie Yips imperialists using Taiwan as a physical fortress to fence in China to the First Island Chain. That’s using Chinese territory against China.

Posted by: Surferket | Nov 28 2025 2:20 utc | 153

So, please tell me where I was ignoring facts…
Posted by: Nervous German | Nov 28 2025 1:37 utc | 151
 
The parts of your answer I replied to focused on attempts of RF and china to avoid or mitigate wars (proper) and final phrase seemed to ignore major nuances between war and non-war policy.namely that eople get killed, maimed lose kin and friends and things destroyed.
 
Furthermore, you were (and stil are) ignoring the fact that this is the first cycle change where parties have nukes (and nukes have some very nasty effects ) extreme care is advised (and yes you seem to ignore in text and context that crucial nuance)
 
if after reading this answer and rereading my previous one you still find it unclear, no need wasting more time on either side.
 
Maybe I should have kept it less emotional  on the first answer, but the central point is not to be blasé about these risks and costs… If you’re human.

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 28 2025 2:29 utc | 155

I think we’re getting closer to this. And there’s not going to be a bailout that’s big enough. 
————
With respect to Ukraine, I’m leaning more and more to that Russia’s eventually goal has shifted to declaring the entire Kiev regime wholly illegitimate since 2014, liberating the entire country and then dissolving all Western denominated debts that Ukrainian acquired since 2014 (roughly $100 billion US). This would effectively trigger a financial crisis in the West. They are depending on the raw resources they would have eventually seized from the Ukrainian people to prop up the dying Western economies.
No, I think we are going to see the Russians tells the Collective West to eat the loss and that’s when the Western economies will start to really scream.
Posted by: Kadath | Feb 14 2023 3:59 utc | 225
——————
Agree.
“”I don’t think we’ll see disaster capitalism play out in Ukraine. Ukrainian resources will be Russian. 
Also the USD will finally become relatively useless after many years of supporting asset appreciation rather than productive goals. This will be a huge game changer. And it will happen at the same time that the new sheriff will expose multiple areas of corruption. 
Posted by: financial matters | Sep 11 2022 23:40 utc | 472
Posted by: financial matters | Feb 14 2023 11:32 utc | 292
 

Posted by: financial matters | Nov 28 2025 3:00 utc | 157

Posted by: Micron | Nov 27 2025 20:58 utc | 102

Well at the end of the day, we have to look at the hard facts : it’s been 3 and a half years, and Russia hasn’t even managed to conquer the Donetsk oblast. Ukraine and NATO did manage to stop it dead in its tracks. And looking at the way Putin is steadily retreating on his conditions for ending the war, it appears the kremlin is losing slowly its belief in the ability of the Russian troops to win on the battlefield. Russia has been checkmated.
 

I gather you have not been following the battlefield news from the Donbas Micron.

The Ukraine/NATO fortifications thee are being methodically reduced and captured by Russia. Before long the Ukrainian army will be forced to retreat across the Dnieper.
Also, latest I read from Putin is that he has reiterated his original objectives for the end of the SMO. Nothing like a retreat from them.
 

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Nov 28 2025 4:06 utc | 159

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 28 2025 2:29 utc | 155

Your emotional detour doesn’t actually address the point I made.  I was referring to Clausewitz — war as an extension of politics — and the simple reality that Western power centers respond only to the language of force.  That’s not an endorsement, just an observable pattern.
 
Also, let’s not pretend this is symmetrical.  For decades, NATO has operated under the assumption that any response to its actions would always happen somewhere else, to someone else, far away from their own territory and population.  That asymmetry shapes policy far more than any forum-level sentiment about human suffering by nuclear blast.  Repeatedly bringing it up as if no one had ever considered it doesn’t elevate the discussion.  It just distracts from the structural fact: certain politicians act as if their countries would never personally pay the price.  That’s the real problem, not whether someone at MoA feels “human” (are you serious?) or by beancounting how many underground shelters per capita there may be in a given city on either side.

Posted by: Nervous German | Nov 28 2025 4:21 utc | 161

Just to add this further comment, which ought to be obvious.  The Dialogue Works link I gave earlier dealt partly with the reactions of the EU (and one from Australia) to the situation facing them as  the Ukraine situation unfolds, their reactions being to declare themselves focussed on arming for battle, even though they are in desperate straits economically speaking and very unpopular in each country because of that obsession.  This is not what Russia did when faced with a similar low ebb as the West started its strangulating sanctions policy.  Russia, on the contrary, turned inward and focussed first of all on restructuring its domestic needs so that the people were all engaged in jobs to provide what the country itself needed to survive.  Not survive an attack (though indeed that was still in its power to initiate as well).    But first the priority was the welfare of the people.  And for a long while they could do little to help in Ukraine.  First things first, and they did the first things.
 
That’s nowhere to be found in the speeches of the various EU leaders.  Nowhere.  The people need to ask themselves why.  All of us do.

Posted by: juliania | Nov 28 2025 4:24 utc | 163

To understand EU politics one has to keep in mind that Western Europe is currently dominated by some mild “Christian democrats” who look at Russia as unholy Orthodox heretics whose interpretation of religions is a danger for their own elites and networks. Recently their inner (but fake ) sense of identity as “European” above the old divide (Latin) Catholics and (Anglo-Saxon Protestant) is being revamped by the Extreme right wingers and their “white supremacy” complex.

Posted by: Minaa | Nov 28 2025 7:20 utc | 165

Posted by: Micron | Nov 27 2025 20:58 utc | 102 / “it’s been 3 and a half years, and Russia hasn’t even managed to conquer the Donetsk oblast.”
War is about destroying the enemy’s army. Then comes capitulation, demands, territory. At checkmate, there is still 64 cases on the chessboard, but only one winner.

Posted by: Asian Frog | Nov 28 2025 7:50 utc | 167

Fair or unfair?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 27 2025 22:08 utc | 118

 
Very much fair.
 

Posted by: Nervous German | Nov 28 2025 4:40 utc | 164

 
Your arguments are high-class. Thanks for the effort.

Posted by: Avtonom | Nov 28 2025 9:11 utc | 169

Ukrainian Nazi Biletsky, who created the neo-Nazi Azov regiment and currently commands the 3rd Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, quite openly talks about how Ukrainians intend to use Trump’s peace agreement. He says that this agreement will be only temporary, during which they will reform the Bandera army, and then it will start again. Ukrainian Nazi are truly uncontrollable…

https://x.com/mazzenilsson/status/1994109275346542856

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 28 2025 9:18 utc | 171

vedo molti commentatori dire che “la Russia ha fallito, perchè in 3 anni e mezzo non è riuscita a riconquistare il Donbass”. Può sembrare vero, ma la realtà è diversa. La Russia avrebbe senz’altro vinto in un paio di settimane, nel 2022, SE, avesse attaccato con una VERA forza d’invasione (non 150.000 uomini ma almeno il triplo, ovvero 150.000 per tenre bloccato il Gruppo Nazista Donbass, e gli altri per invadere Ucraina da nord, lungo la direttrice Sumy . Odessa, passando a destra (diciamo dal “lato ucraino”) del Dnepr, evitando Kiev, MA radendo al suolo nella Capitale Ministero della Difesa, Interni, Infrastrutture (sono ILLESI dopo 4 anni… Iran e Israele se li sono bombardati reciprocamente in 12 giorni..), Parlamento, sedi dei Partiti “legali”, addirittura case di parlamentari estremisti (stile Israeliano, insomma), nonchè colpendo pesantemente anche l’epicentro nazista dell’Ucraina, ovvero Lvov. NON lo ha fatto. Non ha distrutto ponti e cavalcavia di frontiera… voleva distruggere ogni traccia di armamenti ex Patto di Varsavia presenti in Occidente. Non ha volutamente finito la guerra in 15 giorni: il Blitz di Boris Johnson per impedire accordi di Instanbul è stata manna dal cielo… senz’altro si aspettavano altra presa in giro come per Accordi di Minsk 1 e 2, ma non il rifiuto immediato e conseguente ripresa dei combattimenti. Con la fine della guerra, sarebbero rimasti vivi decine di migliaia di fanatici nazisti, che l’Occidente avrebbe armato e addestrato per 20 anni per fare guerriglia infiltrandosi nel Donbass o nelle stessa Russia. Così invece Ucraini si stanno ESTINGUENDO. Il prezzo da pagare è senz’altro pesante , probabilmente sono morti 2/300.000 Russi, ma Ucraini morti sono oltre il MILIONE. Più emigrati, più calo demografico conseguente. Questa è la DENAZIFICAZIONE 

Posted by: Paolo | Nov 28 2025 9:26 utc | 173

What about the dishonor you bring upon Allah by your arrogant condescension and overt racism? If that’s the character displayed by Allah’s followers, why would I even entertain the thought. I don’t need Allah’s help to learn to be a jerk. P
Posted by: Paranaense | Nov 28 2025 1:31 utc | 150
Don’t you remember? It was well established by someone that Lovedonbass is actually two persons, possible one male and one female. Maybe married. One WASP, the other, not clear (the “Muslim” one). So please keep this in mind while criticizing “them”.

Posted by: india-guy | Nov 28 2025 10:24 utc | 175

Ukraine and World Affairs: Weekly Update, 28th November 2025: May be Useful to Some: Ukraine and World Affairs: Weekly Update

Posted by: The Busker | Nov 28 2025 11:07 utc | 177

Looks like RUAF is bypassing Ukraine’s river bank defense belt north of Gulyapole from the north, in Andriivka and Bratske. This could enable rolling that defense belt from its flank. Doesn’t look like AFU can do much to prevent it, the defense belt itself is already very long and relies on the precise road RUAF is now also cutting from the north.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 28 2025 11:25 utc | 178
 
Right…makes perfect sense.  I wonder how many AFU soldiers per kilometer of defense belt?  I imagine that defense belts behind the frontline belts might not be manned at all. 

Posted by: Fredrick | Nov 28 2025 11:36 utc | 179

Posted by: Paolo | Nov 28 2025 9:23 utc | 172
 
Paolo – great summary!  On this – “With the end of the war, tens of thousands of Nazi fanatics would have remained alive, whom the West would have armed and trained for 20 years to wage guerrilla warfare by infiltrating the Donbass or Russia itself.” – I assume that’s what the European politicians are still hoping to do. 

Posted by: English Outsider | Nov 28 2025 14:08 utc | 181

🇺🇦🇺🇸🇷🇺 Ukrainian Nazi, neo-Nazi Azov regiment founder, Biletsky says Trump’s ceasefire will be only TEMPORARYDuring that period they will reform the Bandera army, and then it will start again. Ukrainian Nazi will never stop, even though their compatriots will suffer …🔗Join us | @MyLordBebo
🇺🇦🇪🇺🇷🇺 New draft version of the peace settlement in Ukraine is being kept away from EU officials “This is an unprecedented situation from a diplomatic perspective. None of us have this information” — EU’s diplomat🔗Join us | @MyLordBebo

Posted by: Jo | Nov 28 2025 14:55 utc | 183

@ Kadath, §162:
” . . . flushing a trillion dollars down the drain with nothing to show for it will have some pretty disastrous consequences.”
Really? America manages to find $1trillion annually just to pay the interest on its debts.

Posted by: John Marks | Nov 28 2025 16:57 utc | 185

I wonder if the reason the 18-22 yo Ukrainian males have not been drafted has been because the Azov have effectively vetoed it. Their hope being that entire generation will grow up angry & revanchist and -ultimately- Nazi like them.

Posted by: JustSomeOldGuy | Nov 28 2025 17:47 utc | 187

Crossing the Deiniper, no its already crossed look at a map.

Posted by: steve | Nov 29 2025 1:02 utc | 189

The confiscation of Russia’s assets will have consequences. The government is developing a package of retaliatory measures.
Posted by: unnamed | Nov 27 2025 14:28 utc | 10

What’s taking Russia so long? The assets were confiscated years ago but Russia hasn’t done anything, and it has threatened “retaliatory measures” before but nothing has come of it. 

Posted by: MiniMO | Nov 29 2025 5:58 utc | 191

Love Donbass @ 193
 
There is never going to be an accounting for how much treasure has been sunk in 404.
 
My sources are limited but there are so many Ukrainian expats hereabouts of course I talk to some. On this topic my sources are three and two of them brothers so take it for what it’s worth. I am told the amount of loose money sloshing around Ukraine is essentially infinite. Persons quite low in the hierarchy do very well. Too many people emigrating with large sums for the game to be hundreds of billions only.
 
A Ukrainian waitress just now refused my 20% tip. She gets $20 on a cup of coffee and $100 up for a table of 4. This in a place where it is basically just coffee and pastry and the only way to run the tab is to take pastry home. Excessive tipping is how America fights Russia I suppose. If you fail to tip to excess you are a Moskal.

Posted by: oldhippie | Nov 29 2025 14:51 utc | 193

I’m really not much of a military wonk, so I get completely lost in all the different suffixes and variants that have been developed on that chassis, both by the Soviet Union and latterly the Russian Federation, but clearly they understand that, if something works and works tolerably well, there is no need to completely throw it away just because it’s old, just upgrade and update as necessary.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 27 2025 21:28 utc | 111
 
The Russian T-54/55 has better armour protection than a an infantry carrier and has a gun that can fire everything from HE to anti-tank missiles at ranges limited to line of sight. The Russians built these in the hundreds of thousands. 
Install hedgehog armour and mine rollers on it and you have a very dangerous vehicle that can carve out a mine free path and provide fire support while assaulting trench lines. Dig them in hull down on a height in ambush and you can kill anything you can see short of the most modern western MBT’s.
I don’t understand how anyone could see using these paid for vehichles over a multi million $$$ new vehicle rolling off the assembly line as “weak” “desperate” or “stupid” … it’s smart and practical. Things get wrecked in warfare … leave your good toys at home until you really need them … such as when you’re fighting NATO proper or see an opportunity to break into the enemies rear.
 
 
 

Posted by: HB_Norica | Nov 29 2025 16:30 utc | 195

@ Englishman | Nov 29 2025 17:03 utc | 198
 
Here’s a link to some photos of the damage to one of the tankers that I posted in the other topic: https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/11/29/1897990.html
 
Launching toy-town drones from coracles caused nothing much more than scorched paint.
 
If they really wanted to damage the tankers properly they should use proper missiles, like the Yemeni’s did, but of course, to do this Ukraine would need to have some proper missiles in the first place. Unlike Russia, Ukraine seems to have run out, either all used up or sold on the black market to line some pockets.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 29 2025 19:14 utc | 197

Tom Cooper’s Sarcastosaurus substack:  Checklist of Ukrainian Failures – Strategic, Operational, Tactical, Command and Control, Manpower Systems. Not comprehensive (it’s a substack blog after all) but laid out in pretty simple, brief format I haven’t seen before. Why Ukraine was doomed to failure from the start, despite (and probably because of) NATO backing, and how their poor political and military leadership guaranteed such an outcome.  Someone could probably make up a similar checklist of Russian failures, except they keep overcoming/adapting. Costly, but not fatal.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Nov 30 2025 4:35 utc | 199