Trump’s South America policy is getting more ridiculous by the day.
Yesterday he announced a pardon for the former president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernández, who is serving a 45-year sentence for partnering with drug traffickers who had allegedly shipped 400 tons of cocaine to the United States. He also endorsed a right wing candidate Nasry “Tito” Asfura for Sunday’s election in Honduras. Asfura belongs to the same party as Hernández.
This is unlikely (archived) to have the effect that Trump desires:
The reaction to Mr. Trump’s pardon in Honduras was one of shock, and many wondered how it would play into the elections this weekend.
“It will obviously stir up the same powerful negative sentiment seen in the 2021 elections that pushed Juan Orlando out of power,” said Leonardo Pineda, a Honduran analyst, who said that by linking the conservative candidate, Mr. Asfura, with Mr. Hernández, Mr. Trump could actually hurt his chances of winning.
While pardoning a convicted drug smuggler on one day Trump uses the next one to threatening Venezuela for alleged drug smuggling for which there is no evidence.
A week ago the Federal Aviation Administration has issued a Notice To Air Man (NOTAM) for Venezuela:
The alert speaks of a ‘worsening security situation and heightened military activity in or around Venezuela.’
‘Threats could pose a potential risk to aircraft at all altitudes, including during overflight, the arrival and departure phases of flight, and/or airports and aircraft on the ground,’ the FAA notice states.
The warning is for the Maiquetía Flight Information Region which includes Venezuelan airspace and parts of the southern Caribbean – such as Colombia, Guyana, Brazil, and Trinidad.
Venezuela responded by revoking operation rights for airlines which were following that advice.
Today Trump made an explicit threat to all airplanes in Venezuelan airspace:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump – Nov 29, 2025, 12:43 UTC
To all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers, please consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY. Thank you for your attention to this matter! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
But is he going to do? Order the military to shoot down random passenger planes?
Before that Trump had announced land operations in Venezuela:
President Trump suggested Thursday the United States will “very soon” take action against alleged Venezuelan drug traffickers on land after weeks of repeated strikes in Caribbean waters.
“In recent weeks, you’ve been working to deter Venezuelan drug traffickers, of which there are many,” Trump told military personnel in remarks on Thanksgiving. “Of course, there aren’t too many coming in by sea anymore.”
“You probably noticed that people aren’t wanting to be delivering by sea, and we’ll be starting to stop them by land also,” he continued.
“The land is easier, but that’s going to start very soon. We warn them: Stop sending poison to our country,” Trump added.
The threat is empty. There is no real option for a military land operation in Venezuela.
All Trump assertions about Venezuela, its alleged ‘terrorist gangs’ and drug smuggling are completely bogus.
This is not at all about drugs but about stealing the huge oil reserve Venzuela has:
“[Oil] is at the heart of the matter,” Colombian President Gustavo Petro told CNN in an interview published Wednesday.
“So, that’s a negotiation about oil. I believe that is [President] Trump’s logic. He’s not thinking about the democratization of Venezuela, let alone the narco-trafficking,” added the South American president, who last month was sanctioned by the Trump administration.
Just a week ago Trump had a phone call (archived) with the Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in which he presumably tried to press him into resigning:
The United States has built up a substantial military presence in the Caribbean aimed at Venezuela. Administration officials have said their goal is to deter drug smuggling, but have also made clear that they want to see Mr. Maduro removed from power, possibly by force.
The New York Times reported in October that Mr. Maduro had offered the United States a significant stake in the country’s oil fields, along with a host of other opportunities for American companies, in an effort to defuse tensions. But Mr. Maduro sought to remain in power, and the U.S. officials cut off those discussions early last month.
The Trump administration has falsely claimed (archived) that two criminal organizations in Venezuela, Tren de Aragua and the Cartel de los Soles, are involved in drug trafficking while being controlled by President Maduro:
Henrique Capriles, an opposition figure, former governor and presidential candidate who has been marginalized in recent years, said in an interview that while Tren de Aragua is a dangerous gang, the idea that it was controlled by Mr. Maduro amounts to “science fiction.”
…
Regarding Tren de Aragua, drug trade experts point out that it originated in a prison in Venezuela’s Aragua state and American intelligence agencies circulated findings in February that the gang was not controlled by the Venezuelan government. Its leader is thought to be Hector Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, who escaped from the prison.
…
[N]o evidence has been found that Tren de Aragua is engaged in cross-border drug trafficking, according to Insight Crime, a research group focused on organized crime.
When real drug smuggling occurred in Venezuela it was directed and controlled by the CIA:
[E]xperts who have analyzed the Venezuelan drug trade for decades say the Cartel de los Soles is not a literal organization but shorthand for drug trafficking in the armed forces. That phenomenon is not unique to Venezuela, afflicting democratic and authoritarian countries alike in the Americas.
…
The origins of using the term Cartel de los Soles to describe illicit military activities stretch back to an era well before Mr. Maduro became president in 2013. The term gained traction after a 1993 scandal when the C.I.A. worked with the Venezuelan military to send a ton of cocaine to the United States in a bid to infiltrate Colombian cartels.
The whole Trump South America policy is not about drugs or Venezuela but about U.S. control over the whole continent with the help of right-wing proxy leaders.
Meanwhile the U.S. military continues to strike random fisherman near Venezuela (archived) with drones and missiles.
Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, has given verbal orders to kill anyone who survives a first strike (archived):
The longer the U.S. surveillance aircraft followed the boat, the more confident intelligence analysts watching from command centers became that the 11 people on board were ferrying drugs.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gave a spoken directive, according to two people with direct knowledge of the operation. “The order was to kill everybody,” one of them said.
…
Some current and former U.S. officials and law-of-war experts have said that the Pentagon’s lethal campaign — which has killed more than 80 people to date — is unlawful and may expose those most directly involved to future prosecution.
Hegseth had overruled the most senior military lawyer of the U.S. Southern Command who had called the strikes illegal:
The JAG at Southern Command specifically expressed concern that strikes against people on boats in the Caribbean Sea and the eastern Pacific Ocean, whom administration officials call “narco-terrorists,” could amount to extrajudicial killings, the six sources said, and therefore legally expose service members involved in the operations.
…
There have been other signs of disagreement within the administration over the strikes. The head of Southern Command, Adm. Alvin Holsey, plans to step down after less than a year in a job that typically lasts about three years.Holsey announced in October that he will depart next month.
Eleven people in a boat is by the way a sure sign that these were not drug smuggler but most likely illegal migrants:
Current and former officials within the U.S. military and DEA have expressed doubt that all 11 people aboard the first vessel were complicit in trafficking.
The boat in question, a go-fast vessel with four motors, is common in the region and would typically be manned by a small crew — perhaps one mechanic, a driver or two, and another person focused on security, one DEA official said.
More people on board means less room for drugs to sell, the official explained.
I still very much doubt that Trump will order military strikes on Venezuela. Chances are high that any such operation would end in a quagmire. It would lessen the chances of any other policy success he might want to have.