The MoA Week In Review – OT 2025-254

Back to Main

November 2, 2025

Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:

Oct 27 – Sitting In A Damaged Glasshouse Throwing More Stones
Related:
– Ukraine curbs power supplies after attack on energy facilities, Kyiv says – Reuters
– G7 ministers to discuss support for Ukraine amid energy crisis – UkrInform
– Entire Donetsk Oblast left without power – Ukrainske Pravda

Oct 28 – How Can Japan Handle Its $550 Billion Trump Problem?
Related:
– Trump aims to open Japan to U.S. autos with tariffs. It’s a tough sell – Detroit News
– Japan’s Central Bank Holds Fire as Tariffs, Politics Cloud Policy Target – WSJ via </>MSN
– Japan’s Takaichi and China’s Xi agree to pursue stable ties – Reuters

Oct 29 – English Outsider On Solving Ukraine
Related:
– A Few Thoughts About the Russian End Game in Ukraine and the Risk of Losing the Peace – Naked Capitalism
– Living Dangerously – Russo-Ukrainian War: Autumn 2025 – Big Serge <- Recommended
– I hate to say it, but Kyiv won’t last till spring (archived) – The Times
– The dark side of Zelenskyy’s rule – Politico
– Almost 100,000 young men flee Ukraine in two months – Telegraph
– Did Ukraine Just Quietly Attack Two European Countries? – American Conservative
– What will it cost to make Vladimir Putin stop? (archived) – Economist

> We calculate that Ukraine will need approximately $389bn in cash and arms over the four years from 2026 to 2029 (for consistency we are using dollars and constant prices throughout), mainly from Europe. That is almost double the roughly $206bn that Europe has supplied since just before the war started in February 2022. <

Oct 30 – A Nuclear Delivery Vehicle Is Not A Nuclear War Head
Related:
– Opinion: Why Trump’s talk about nuclear testing is dangerous – Salt Lake Tribune
– The experts respond to Trump’s proposal to “start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis” – The Bulletin
– Trump push to restart nuclear tests could take years, cost millions, experts say (archived) – Washington Post

Oct 31 – U.S. Ready To Bomb Venezuela Under Absurdly False Pretext
Related:
– Pentagon Tells Congress It Doesn’t Know Who It’s Killing in Latin American Boat Strikes – Scheerpost
– Trump administration tells Congress war law doesn’t apply to cartel strikes (archived) – Washington Post
– Russia Ready to Assist Venezuela in Response to Intervention Threats Orinoco Tribune
– How Miami hawks hijacked Trump’s foreign policy They’ve long dreamed of toppling Maduro – Unherd
– The Regime Change Temptation in Venezuela – To Overthrow Maduro Would Not End Well – Foreign Affairs
– ‘This is no drill’ – State One Alert Level – Trinidad Express

Nov 1 – Ukraine – Hail Mary Operation To Unblock Pokrovsk Has Failed
Related:
– Who will save Ukrainian troops in Pokrovsk? (archived) – Spectator
– Pokrovsk, Syrsky, and black hawks down – Events in Ukraine
– No encirclement of Pokrovsk: Armed Forces, Security Service and Defence Intelligence of Ukraine operating in city, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief says – Ukrainske Pravda
– Ukrainian troops have improved tactical position in several areas of Pokrovsk, Air Assault Forces say – video – Ukrainske Pravda

—
Other issues:

Gaza:

Israel blocks majority of Gaza aid despite ceasefire deal – MEE
Classified U.S. report finds backlog of ‘hundreds’ of possible Israeli human rights violations (archived) – Washington Post
‘No restrictions’ and a secret ‘wink’: Inside Israel’s deal with Google, Amazon – 972mag

AI-Financing:

Here’s How the AI Crash Happens – Atlantic
A closer look at the record-smashing ‘Hyperion’ corporate bond sale (archived) – Financial Times
How Bad Could the Private-Credit Crisis Get? Just Look at 1929. – Barrons

Tariffs:

How We Lost the Trade War – Paul Krugman
America’s Suez – When the Tariff Titan Blinked – Warwick Powell
GT Voice: Industrial damage of Dutch actions to Nexperia can’t be underestimated – Global Times
Netherlands faces pressure to surrender control of Nexperia after Xi-Trump summit – SCMP
Nexperia allowed to resume exports from China following Trump-Xi talks – Tom’s Hardware
China and ASEAN, hit by US tariffs, sign upgraded free trade pact – Yahoo
Trump’s unusual tariff strategy puts America’s allies in a near-impossible situation – CNN

The Fall of NASA:

NASA’s Orion Space Capsule Is Flaming Garbage (looong) – Casey Handmer

Use as open (not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine) thread …

Posted by b on November 2, 2025 at 14:45 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Further to the Barrons private credit link, search “Non Financial Depository Institution” posts made last month and recoil in horror.

https://www.google.com/search?q=non+depository+financial+institution&udm=14&tbs=qdr:m

Truly it is the season of the Witch.

Posted by: too scents | Nov 2 2025 14:55 utc | 1

“Non Financial Depository Institution”

—

“Non Depository Financial Institution”. Ooophf!

Posted by: too scents | Nov 2 2025 14:57 utc | 2

Thanks b.

I hadn’t seen the Unherd article yet when I noted that there was a reason the Miami Herald was the news outlet seemingly scooped on the Venezuela plans of the Trump Regime but herein is a good look at what I was trying to convey in my comments under the most recent Venezuela thread.

https://unherd.com/2025/10/how-miami-hawks-hijacked-trumps-foreign-policy/?

The USA will never allow the “threat of a good example” of socialism in its “back yard” which translates to Uncle Scam will do everything in his powers to destroy it. Miami is the hub of angry right wing Latin American antisocial (ism).

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Nov 2 2025 15:08 utc | 3

While the Barrons article b linked is backward looking the FT posted a forward looking piece this morning that included this data:

Eighty per cent of all private capital groups could be zombie firms within the next decade, according to one of the industry’s most senior executives, surviving only to manage existing investments because they cannot raise fresh capital.

Only about 5,000 of the 15,000 or more private capital firms that exist today had successfully raised funds in the past seven years, Per Franzén, chief executive of Sweden’s EQT, told the Financial Times.

“How many of these firms will have a successful fundraising also in the next five to 10 years? . . . Probably less than half,” he said. “The number of zombie firms will increase by an additional couple of thousand.”

Private equity groups have struggled to raise funds in recent years after finding it difficult to return cash to their backers because of a dealmaking drought.

Instead, private equity firms have sought to increase the amount of fees they can generate from existing funds, as well as leaning more heavily on continuation vehicles, a tool that buyout firms use to hang on to some assets by selling them to themselves.

Complete story ==> https://www.ft.com/content/49d2cb79-5e0b-4c71-9258-b3fea4ca70c4

The venue is closing on this charade.

Posted by: too scents | Nov 2 2025 15:16 utc | 4

Listening to Brian Berletec’s morning rant of savage realism on Geopolitics & US 40 mins

Fake Handshakes vs Continuity of Agenda: Trump Repeats 1st Term Bait & Switch on China Relations

Continuity of Agenda. Spot on. D.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Nov 2 2025 15:16 utc | 5

https://meaninginhistory.substack.com/p/the-trump-doctrine-if-we-dont-like

More continuity of agenda, Soleimani’s ghost. But Obama set the precedent.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Nov 2 2025 15:21 utc | 6

Every so often I check in on what Charles Hugh Smith ( http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/ ) has to say. His latest is a piece on how a deep chasm divides America’s top 10% from the bottom 50%, where for the elite, the past 16 years have been an “Everything Bubble” of wealth, a reality reflected in their control of media and focus on AI, space, and global travel. They have not experienced the economic crash that has defined life for the bottom half since 2009, whose reality, including homelessness and third-world-quality healthcare, remains largely invisible to them.

Insulated in their bubble, the top 10% point to soaring stocks and GDP as proof of national success, dismissing the struggles of the bottom 90% as personal failures. Meanwhile, the majority grapples with impossible choices, forced into side-hustles by soaring costs and exploited by systems like private equity.
Charles poses the question of when the organized refusal to participate in this broken system will begin, forcing the powerful to finally see the crisis they’ve ignored.

He links two articles on the harsh reality of being homeless in the US of A, both excellent reads.

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a62875397/homelessness-in-america/

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/11/realestate/colorado-homeless-parking-lot-affordable-housing.html

Have a great Sunday everyone.

Posted by: Juan Moment | Nov 2 2025 15:24 utc | 7

The Times’ piece on Kiev not lasting ’til spring a spot of near-realism in MSM.

appreciate the ‘archive’ b. D.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Nov 2 2025 15:30 utc | 8

Vis-a-vis the harsh reality of living in the USA

USA’s “Deaths of Despair” at all time high. 3x Great Depression rate ==> https://youtu.be/loxL6dyUvpk

11 minutes. Deaths of Despair is an actual economic measure of well being ==> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease_of_despair

Posted by: too scents | Nov 2 2025 15:33 utc | 9

I was going to post about Charlie Kirk, Tyler R. and Lance T. Very long, some analysis of the texts and so on. Ohh…yes, the Defense stands a good chance.. but conclusions are out of reach… so…

Side bar.

Let’s just note that Tyler Robinson was awarded the Presidential scholarship (to attend UVU, no link, but it is so.) Kirk was posthumously awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom. JD Vance owes his position to Charlie Kirk.

MSM Guardian 24 Oct 2025, award to Kirk.
https://tinyurl.com/4wm3kfkx

MSM BBC 12 Sep 2025, Kirk pushed Vance (article imho plays down the influence channels, and how he, Kirk, managed it.)
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c33r4kjez6no

The point is, the murder of Kirk is an event due to crashes, explosions (not literal) at ’top levels’ of various forces, groups, financial interests, lobbying, etc. in the USA. So how to make it all disappear, cover it all up, is badly coordinated.

Posted by: Noirette | Nov 2 2025 15:42 utc | 10

Since early September, U.S. forces have carried out 14 Reaper drone strikes on boats in the Caribbean and Pacific, killing at least 62 people. DJT says the strikes are legal, and that the boats were trafficking drugs. The Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel has deemed the strikes lawful.

The Office of Legal Counsel is a division of the Justice Department that interprets the law for the executive branch. It has played this role for decades, issuing opinions that bind federal agencies on matters ranging from Social Security to veterans’ affairs to immigrants’ rights.

After Sept. 11, the office was called on by both the shrub-Bush and Obama administrations to resolve questions relating to national security. It told shrub-Bush that the National Security Agency could listen to Americans’ phone calls without warrants, for instance, and that the Taliban were not entitled to the protections usually accorded prisoners of war. It assured the C.I.A. that it could lawfully torture prisoners overseas. Later, it concluded that the Constitution’s due process clause was no obstacle to the government’s summary execution of an American terrorism suspect.

The Office of Legal Counsel’s war-on-terror opinions might have provoked debate, and even popular fury, if they had been disclosed soon after they were written, but the Justice Department relied on national security justifications to keep them from the public for years. As a result, significant errors in the office’s legal analyses went unidentified and uncorrected, even as agencies relied on them to carry out policies that were deeply inconsistent with American law and democratic values. Public debate on matters of profound consequence unfolded in an information environment distorted by official secrecy, misdirection and selective disclosure.

Office of Legal Counsel memos related to drone strikes were also withheld from the public, with the Obama administration warning courts that their disclosure could cause grave harm. For instance, the memo authorizing the killing of Anwar al-Awlaki, an American accused of plotting against the United States, was withheld for four years, even as government officials freely leaked cherry-picked information about U.S. drone strikes to the press.American courts tend to be deferential to the executive branch in cases involving national security.

Both the shrub-Bush and Obama administrations repeatedly relied on that deference for their most consequential decisions & policies in the years after Sept. 11 in an effort to control what the public learned and believed about their policies

When the DJT administration’s OLC memo comes before the courts, as it almost certainly will, judges may in fact extend the same deference to his administration. It’s not as if the air strikes on alleged narco-terrorists falls uniquely outside the rule of law which presidents like shrub-Bush and Obama employed.

The War Powers Act of 1973 says presidents may deploy the military in hostile situations only with prior congressional authorization or if the country is under attack. Every subsequent president since Nixon has exceeded that limit, treating the provision as too narrow to be constitutional. Congress has acquiesced by not impeaching any president for doing so.

Another part of the law said Congress could order a president to immediately end an operation through a kind of resolution that presidents cannot veto. That clause was effectively struck down in 1983 when the Supreme Court ended so-called legislative vetoes of executive actions, saying that Congress could only legally act by passing measures that presidents could veto.

Clinton justified the bombardment of Kosovo in 1999 under the War Powers Act. Ditto w/ Obama and his air attack over Libya in 2011. Obama’s team argued that the Libya action did not violate the War Powers Act because the air strikes did not amount to “hostilities.” Obama’s team claimed that their reasoning was based more on the idea that there was little risk of U.S. casualties, because there were no ground troops and of course Libyans could not shoot back.

It is a hideous assessment, but this is the argument that passed muster w/ Obama’s team.By expanding on Obama’s precedent, DJT is more deeply entrenching the idea that the 60-day limit does not apply to air wars. That is an important development in the history of the War Powers Act for which presidents of both parties have found workarounds over the past half century.

In notable ways DJT’s actions are congruent w/ the liberties presidents before him have utilized. I do not endorse the air strikes on alleged narco-terrorists any more than I endorsed Obama’s drone assassinations each Tuesday during his war-on-terror(TM) or shrub-Bush’s torture/rendition program. We have a chronology of the executive branch engaging in such tactics, however. DJT does not stand alone in that chronology.

Let me repeat again: the Supreme Court during shrub-Bush concluded that the Constitution’s due process clause was no obstacle to the government’s summary execution of an American terrorism suspect. It is fine to decry summary execution from the sky without due process, but until the Supreme Court’s prior finding gets overturned summary-execution-from-the-sky without due process is how any given president may lawfully proceed.

What’s strange, though, is the hyperventilating over DJT’s actions as if they fall aberrantly out of the rationale other presidents have employed. It is safe to say that DJT and his admin receive singularly hyperbolic media coverage, unparalleled in the media coverage of prior administrations. On account of this media eccentricity, this unmatched perseveration, the propaganda saturation around DJT’s actions is particularly intense. The same words surface: authoritarian, dictatorial, tyrannical.

In an article criticizing DJT for building the new ballroom for 1600 Pennsylvania Ave, the author compared him to Orban and also to Erdogan. You know what the author was getting at: authoritarian, dictatorial, tyrannical.

The media applies these same words to articles covering the air strikes on alleged narco-terrorists as they do on articles covering the new ballroom for the White House. In fact, the Atlantic described DJT’s plans for the ballroom as “utterly abandoning the precedent established in 1900.” In other words, they have to tie themselves into pretzel knots to dredge up exactly how it is that the aberrant DJT is deviantly running roughshod over architecture & decency.

Peculiarly, DJT gets Putinized by the U.S.’s own domestic media, that is: given the negatively biased treatment reserved in particular for VVP.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | Nov 2 2025 15:58 utc | 11

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Nov 2 2025 15:08 utc | 3
as soon as i got this big COOKIE warning, i immediately closed the site. US policy to VZ is longstanding. nothing to do with President Peace Prize.
Mystery Science Theater 3000: Assignment Venezuela-an “educational” piece from the Western disinfo mill promoting how awesome US management of VZ’s oil industry is, from 60 years ago or so!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVd6ZI-i8dM

Posted by: duck n cover | Nov 2 2025 16:01 utc | 12

thanks b, and tom collins for the link…

the fact is sometimes i find the news depressing.. most of the time i rise above it and go with the flow of wanting to understand it all better thru reading the articles and listening to what the moa posters have to say.. other times, not so much!! i drift off into astrological talks on ‘open’ threads in my moment of ruminating on other realities.. whether one believes or doesn’t believe in a particular outlook – it is all relevant in the greater picture as i see it.. some of it might not apply to one specifically, or can be easily ignored or skipped over… that’s life!

meanwhile it seems the baseball series is over… it was sort of a big thing here in canada with the thought of the blue jays winning.. on the gig i did last night, some folks were following it quite closely, in spite of the 90th birthday party celebrations we were a part of for this event up island… someone mentioned it didn’t matter which team one because neither one of them would be invited to the white house by trump, maybe for what they had said about him, or what – i don’t know… it was an interesting angle to highlight and one i hadn’t thought of, lol..

i am reading a david foster wallace book at the moment – the first one i have read.. the guy is a good writer and i am enjoying the book.. happy november everyone!

Posted by: james | Nov 2 2025 16:01 utc | 13

@ Juan Moment | Nov 2 2025 15:24 utc | 7

thanks juan.. that looks very interesting.. happy sunday to you as well!

Posted by: james | Nov 2 2025 16:03 utc | 14

Posted by: too scents | Nov 2 2025 15:16 utc | 4

I don’t know about that; we have had alot of interest in our niobium, rare earths, silver and gold properties by private capital.

A Swiss private capital group-a hedge fund-just raised $50 MM Euros by having clients sell in the US stock market and invest in private capital. The Western stock markets are being held up by the AI bubble and idiotic retail money. The smart money is selling , going into private capital, gold and bonds.

It took 3 months but we just did a deal for $20MM Canadian for a niobium and rare earths deal and three private capital groups were bidding.

Posted by: canuk | Nov 2 2025 16:15 utc | 15

Posted by: duck n cover | Nov 2 2025 16:01 utc

Yes I know the history. But Trump has fir whatever reason always had a tiny throbbing boner for Venezuela. Maximum pressure, Juan Random Guaido, Bay of Piglets, Elliott Abrams and now Little Marco and direct kinetic military strikes.

Miami is the home of virulent right wing antisocial/ism being my main point, though.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Nov 2 2025 16:15 utc | 16

@ james | Nov 2 2025 16:01 utc | 13 who reads more than I

I just finished a book called Breath by James Nestor.
It is a good read and about something very important to our species….anyone who is a mouth breather should read it as well as others.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 2 2025 16:16 utc | 17

we have had alot of interest in our niobium, rare earths, silver and gold properties by private capital.

Posted by: canuk | Nov 2 2025 16:15 utc | 15

—

I’d wager they have you running on a hamster wheel. If you’d have taken all the money you’ve spent chasing “minerals” and instead had straight up invested it all on gold how far ahead would you be?

Posted by: too scents | Nov 2 2025 16:22 utc | 18

BRICS who ?
-The US and India signed a ten-year defense agreement! – The comment of the US Defense Secretary –
https://www-pronews-gr.translate.goog/amyna-asfaleia/diethnis-asfaleia/oi-ipa-kai-oi-india-ypegrapsan-dekaeti-amyntiki-symfonia-to-sxolio-tou-amerikanou-ypam/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Posted by: The Painter | Nov 2 2025 16:28 utc | 19

@ psychohistorian | Nov 2 2025 16:16 utc | 17

thanks! this book you mention reminds me of a book that the naturopath was recommending about a year ago on breathing… we don’t pay very much attention to our breathing, do we?? we take a lot of things for granted which is a shame… i will see if it is at the library.. thanks.. it is! in fact, i think this might be the book the naturopath recommended – from 2020.. i take this as a sign i need to read the book!

Posted by: james | Nov 2 2025 16:50 utc | 20

Re: Private Equity:
Having been around the fringes of Private Equity (aka Buy-out shops) for 40 years; I can assure you they are all brutal crooks, swindlers, shysters, and flim-flam men. 1/2 of their time is spent massaging their investors (aka limited partners) who want their money back.
a typical example is this Riverstone Fund. The Private Equity shysters paid themselves lavish fees. Their investors will be luckey to get 4 cents on the dollar. We only know about this debacle because the Fund was public.

Rivestone liqudates fund

Posted by: Exile | Nov 2 2025 16:57 utc | 21

Posted by: too scents | Nov 2 2025 16:22 utc | 18

I bought the 10,000 acre niobium/rare earths property for $425,000 Canadian in 2008. The group are buying a 50% interest for $20 Million Canadian.

In 2008 gold was going for $880 per ounce today is is $4,000 per ounce ; if I bought $425,000 worth of gold then I would have $2.55 million; but getting I am getting $20 MM in the deal.

Nothwithstanding they are going to pay me $25k per month to manage the exploration on a guaranteed 5 year contract.

So no, I am much better off selling the property in 2025 the property than buying the gold in 2008..

Posted by: canuk | Nov 2 2025 17:02 utc | 22

“i am reading a david foster wallace book at the moment – the first one i have read.”

Posted by: james | Nov 2 2025 16:01 utc | 13

You are in for a treat-but, as you know, it is not light reading!!

Posted by: canuk | Nov 2 2025 17:09 utc | 23

Worth your attention Debt and the cockroaches – Michael Roberts Blog

But the only joker in the economic pack of cards, according to investors and corporate strategists, is the public sector. The US government is still running huge annual budget deficits and thus driving up the level of government debt, and so increasing the cost of servicing that debt.

Apparently, this is the reason for low investment in productive assets: government bond issuance is rising so fast that it is ‘crowding out’ credit for the private sector to invest in productive assets. This is nonsense. There are now many studies that show that interest costs are not the first worry for companies. The main question for firms is: what return in profits will there be from new investments?

Posted by: steven t johnson | Nov 2 2025 17:10 utc | 24

manage the exploration on a guaranteed 5 year contract.

Posted by: canuk | Nov 2 2025 17:02 utc | 22

—

A story made famous by Jack and his magic beanstock. When do exploration and guaranteed belong together? I have doubts that your partner’s promises will grow to the clouds. But what do I know? I’ve lost a shit ton of money by selling to soon. I have however always covered by markers and have something to show for it.

Posted by: too scents | Nov 2 2025 17:19 utc | 25

@canuk:
Good on you, Man! Glad to hear of your score.
Don’t get big-head; we’re still going to make fun of you, even if you’re rich.
🙂

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Nov 2 2025 17:36 utc | 26

It is a good read and about something very important to our species….anyone who is a mouth breather should read it as well as others.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 2 2025 16:16 utc | 17

As a mostly mouth-breather, multiple nose breaks from sports, I would be offended if I was capable of such a response. Only those who don’t exert themselves too much can afford to use the nose only. Congrats on attaining that status.

Posted by: Fool Me Twice | Nov 2 2025 17:57 utc | 27

The USA will never allow the “threat of a good example” of socialism in its “back yard” which translates to Uncle Scam will do everything in his powers to destroy it. Miami is the hub of angry right wing Latin American antisocial (ism).

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Nov 2 2025 15:08 utc | 3

No. It’s just about the oil. Poor Venezuela is “Socialist” in name only. In reality, it’s a a resource rich Capitalist country with very mild reforms to aid the most poor. It’s no “good example” in the region at all with huge numbers of poor and disempowered workers. I hope Imperialism is defeated in Venezuela, but pretending Venezuela is some workers paradise is ridiculous.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 2 2025 18:08 utc | 28

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 2 2025 18:10 utc | 29

Two articles that pair quite well together like bookends:

“The [opium] trade helped generate immense wealth for American merchants and contributed to the growth of American industry and infrastructure.”

https://huabinoliver.substack.com/p/two-hundred-years-of-us-trade-with

“Centuries of Western rule of the world are coming to an end, and the Middle Kingdom is resuming its accustomed role as the most important country in the world.”

https://www.ianwelsh.net/the-new-cold-war-is-taking-form

Posted by: Canadian Cents | Nov 2 2025 18:16 utc | 30

Posted by: Mark2 | Nov 2 2025 18:16 utc | 31

Leading OpenAI researcher announced a GPT-5 math breakthrough that never happened (THE DECODER, Matthias Bastian, October 18, 2025)

OpenAI researchers recently claimed a major math breakthrough on X, but quickly walked it back after criticism from the community, including Deepmind CEO Demis Hassabis, who called out the sloppy communication.

It started with a now-deleted tweet from OpenAI manager Kevin Weil, who wrote that GPT-5 had “found solutions to 10 (!) previously unsolved Erdős problems” and made progress on eleven more. He described these problems as “open for decades.” Other OpenAI researchers echoed the claim.

The wording made it sound like GPT-5 had independently produced mathematical proofs for tough number theory questions – a potential scientific breakthrough and a sign that generative AI could uncover unknown solutions, showing its ability to drive novel research and open the door to major advances.

Mathematician Thomas Bloom, who runs erdosproblems.com, pushed back right away. He called the statements “a dramatic misinterpretation,” clarifying that “open” on his site just means he personally doesn’t know the solution – not that the problem is actually unsolved. GPT-5 had only surfaced existing research that Bloom had missed.

Deepmind-CEO Demis Hassabis called the episode “embarrassing”, and Meta AI chief Yann LeCun pointed out that OpenAI had basically bought into its own hype (“Hoisted by their own GPTards”).

The original tweets were mostly deleted, and the researchers admitted their mistake. Still, the incident adds to the perception that OpenAI is an organization under pressure and careless in its approach. It raises questions about why leading AI researchers would share such dramatic claims without verifying the facts, especially in a field already awash in hype, with billions at stake. Bubeck knew what GPT-5 actually contributed, but still used the ambiguous phrase “found solutions.”

GPT-5 is proving useful as a literature review assistant

The real story here is getting overshadowed: GPT-5 actually proved useful as a research tool for tracking down relevant academic papers. This is especially valuable for problems where the literature is scattered or the terminology isn’t consistent.

Mathematician Terence Tao sees this as the most immediate potential for AI in math—not solving the toughest open problems, but speeding up tedious tasks like literature searches. While there have been some “isolated examples of progress” on difficult questions, Tao says AI is most valuable as a time-saving assistant. He has also said that generative AI could help “industrialize” mathematics and accelerate progress in the field. Still, human expertise is crucial for reviewing, classifying, and safely integrating AI-generated results into real research.

Posted by: S | Nov 2 2025 18:19 utc | 32

In the Czech Republic, Russophobes secured a conviction for a teacher who told the truth about Ukraine (EADaily, October 23, 2025 — in Russian)

The Czech Court of Appeal upheld the conviction of teacher Martina Bednářová for “justifying Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine,” local media reported.

The teacher received a suspended sentence of seven months. The final verdict also includes a three-year ban on teaching, working in education, and working with children. Bednářová is also required to complete a “media literacy course.”

As a reminder, in early April 2022, Bednářová raised the topic of Ukraine during a class, noting that Russia’s actions were a “fair solution to a problematic situation.” She also claimed that since 2014, Ukrainian Nazi groups in the Donbas had been “systematically exterminating Russians, including children.” Following the incident, the teacher, who had 30 years of experience, was fired, and criminal proceedings were initiated against her. This was the third time the Prague City Court had heard Bednářová’s case. The court had previously acquitted the teacher, citing a lack of criminal liability for such actions. However, following an appeal by the Prosecutor General, the Supreme Court overturned the verdict and remanded the case for a new trial.

So much for the Western “democracy” and “freedom of speech.”

Posted by: S | Nov 2 2025 18:28 utc | 33

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Nov 2 2025 17:36 utc | 26

Ha.

I will try to keep level headed-I’ve been a entrepreneur all my life been way up and way down , it comes with the territory.

However, unlike those episodes I’m 63- this time I will take the money and not start any new projects.

Even with the added liquidity I am quite confident I will produce enough written foibles for you guys to make fun of me with…..

Posted by: canuk | Nov 2 2025 19:14 utc | 34

No. It’s just about the oil. Poor Venezuela is “Socialist” in name only. In reality, it’s a a resource rich Capitalist country with very mild reforms to aid the most poor. It’s no “good example” in the region at all with huge numbers of poor and disempowered workers. I hope Imperialism is defeated in Venezuela, but pretending Venezuela is some workers paradise is ridiculous.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 2 2025 18:08 utc | 28

Don’t forget that most of Venezuelan problems stem from the anti-human actions of the us and Venezuela’s own comprador class.
Just like its inaccurate to suggest socialism failed Cuba, imo its inaccurate in Venezuela’s case as well.

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Nov 2 2025 19:23 utc | 35

@ Fool Me Twice | Nov 2 2025 17:57 utc | 27 who is displaying their ignorance about breath with their slam on my comment to james.

What I have learned in my life is that if you are mouth breathing you are out of shape and exerting too hard for long term exertion like bicycle riding….dial it back to what you can handle with nose breathing.

I encourage you to get and read the book….$10-12. Given your response to my comment to james I know you would learn something new about your body and your breath.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 2 2025 19:24 utc | 36

“No. It’s just about the oil. Poor Venezuela is “Socialist” in name only. In reality, it’s a a resource rich Capitalist country with very mild reforms to aid the most poor. It’s no “good example” in the region at all with huge numbers of poor and disempowered workers. I hope Imperialism is defeated in Venezuela, but pretending Venezuela is some workers paradise is ridiculous. ”

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 2 2025 18:08 utc | 28

Best paragraph I have read today , thanks.

Posted by: canuk | Nov 2 2025 19:27 utc | 37

/alights back upon the pillow supporting the crazy crown of MoA
🙂 After seeing the poor All Saints Day brawl over the last article, I’m going to say I am merely interested in this pillow. There’s no fight in me for the crown. Besides, such bustling in the hedgerows leaves an untidy bar. Let’s keep MoA tidy!
/birdsings “Stairway to Heaven” by Led Zeppelin

Posted by: titmouse | Nov 2 2025 19:30 utc | 38

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 2 2025 18:08 utc | 28

######

I keep forgetting about all of your experience in Venezuela.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 2 2025 19:38 utc | 39

Nigeria – I was thinking Niger the other day as the headchoppers have been holding a large area centered on the border area where those three countries meet. Nigeria is just to the south and known for the oil production. I believe China buys a lot of the Nigerian oil.
Nigeria has oil – not sure of reserves – and the three countries to the north have gold, Uranium ect, A rich area for the Americans to grab as well.

Canuk, congrats on the rare earth prospect working out for you.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 2 2025 19:40 utc | 40

“Don’t forget that most of Venezuelan problems stem from the anti-human actions of the us and Venezuela’s own comprador class. Just like its inaccurate to suggest socialism failed Cuba, imo its inaccurate in Venezuela’s case as well.”

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Nov 2 2025 19:23 utc | 35

I second that motion, Tannenhouser.

Posted by: canuk | Nov 2 2025 19:57 utc | 41

Thiel/Karp tool J Vance engaged in a hug with C Kirk’s widow at CPAC. She placed a hand on the back of his head while he placed both hands on her waist

The suggestive clinch has lead to speculation that this widow has her sights set on the Oval Office, hoping to wrest control of Vance from Thiel and friends.
Thiel and Karp front Palantire, an outfit dedicated to enslaving the US population and indeed the rest of world using AI, autonomous robots and drone technology while at the same time delivering “value” to their shareholders. Their aim is to make the Oligarchy untouchable

Posted by: will moon | Nov 2 2025 19:57 utc | 42

The socialism of today that is working well is a mix of socialism and private enterprise. Communism – the commune system – does not suit most countries and peoples.

So the socialism is in infrastructure building, building housing if required, aged pensions, cheap energy ect.
The Russian government has the monopoly on gas and a major part of the oil. The export revenue that generates allow the government to keep income tax very low, and supply domestic energy at virtually cost.

Here in Australia, we don’t have much in the way of oil reserves but stacks of gas. Most of it exported and Australian domestic gas prices are according to export prices. If it was government owned, it could be piped the length of the east coast were the main population density lives, supplied at cost or just above, then the remainder exported to bring in revenue for the government. Something like that boosts the economy as well as giving the government extra funds for other infrastructure building, pensions or whatever.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 2 2025 20:01 utc | 43

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 2 2025 19:40 utc | 40

Thanks.

On this 16 year project I and my partner were nearly bankrupt 7 years ago when some American financiers in a thugeish took over the board and tried to steal the property.

6 years and $750 k Can. in lawyers fees (still owe a Nevada Law firm-45k but they have been good not charging interest but they made a ton of dough) we managed to get a shareholders meeting and since we had more shares we got the company back last year.

But having no liquidity , wife having to get a job, a schizophrenic son who still lives with us at the house , paying for the taxes and maintenance of the property it has not been an easy path. And, as you well know, even though one may have a mineral deposit there is no cash flow-its like making a drug no cash until you sell the pill/ore-so debt and equity are the only tools.

And, you need to be lucky. This recent rare earth craze (I fucked up with the Lithium craze, got greedy) we managed to get multiple bidders and make a decent deal

Posted by: canuk | Nov 2 2025 20:07 utc | 44

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 2 2025 20:01 utc | 43

On energy. In my white supremacist pedo supporting hitlerian stupor. I believe private interests have ZERO place in the public commons. Zero will seem harsh to some. I am of the oppinion this is the best place to start.

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Nov 2 2025 20:11 utc | 45

@12 duck n’ cover

Thx! I am a big Misty and their new stuff is equally amazing. They are getting long in the tooth but their corpus will live on forever.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Nov 2 2025 20:36 utc | 46

I encourage you to get and read the book….$10-12.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 2 2025 19:24 utc | 36

Save the money. The book is available at Int. Archive. Breath
I’ve read the intro and skimmed thru it and am impressed.
Hope is renewed for hiking in the mountains of Norway post 80.
Thanks much PH!

Posted by: waynorinorway | Nov 2 2025 20:40 utc | 47

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 2 2025 18:08 utc | 28

######

I keep forgetting about all of your experience in Venezuela.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Nov 2 2025 19:38 utc | 39

I’ll bet you didn’t know I lived in Latin America for years. Love, I dare say you’d be quite surprised by just home much you don’t know about me.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 2 2025 20:43 utc | 48

Ahenobarbus @ 28
Did’nt the england and america steal all their gold reserves, and how about sanctions,

Dont you think that may have something to do with their povity ?

Not forgetting the prolonged regeme chainge attempts.

Sounds like your victem blaming, it’s getting habitual

Posted by: Mark2 | Nov 2 2025 18:16 utc | 31.

It certainly does have a lot to do with it. But, that’s why since 1917 Socialism has been internationalist. There is no hope for Socialism in one country. That said, Stalin as conservative as he was, is far to the left of the Maduro regime. The thing is, they never had a revolution. There was military coup that consolidated power in a well intentioned military figure who declared himself a Socialist. Contrast this with the French Revolution or even the American Civil War and it becomes obvious, Venezuela is just another reformist Capitalist military regime.

Again, I hope they whip the Imperialists, but I’m not going to blind myself to its political and economic weakness.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 2 2025 20:50 utc | 49

Anyone fancy some prince ?

Prince ‘while my gutar gently weeps’ live remastered. Youtube.

Posted by: Mark2 | Nov 2 2025 20:57 utc | 50

Ahenobarbus | Nov 2 2025 20:50 utc | 49

The socialist government of Venezuela nationalized the oil industry which brought in government revenue and built housing. US sanctioned Venezuela oil to keep Venezuela in poverty.

It is very much a socialist government. Many seem to confuse the commune system with socialism. Two different things.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 2 2025 21:04 utc | 51

Thought I’d give a shout-out on the open thread to a new Substack: Exit From Affco – Smith K. Stead

The author takes his nom de plume from the novel Smith’s Dream by C.K. Stead, which follows a recently divorced man’s attempts to be left alone in the midst of a US-backed coup and counterinsurgency in New Zealand. It was made into a film under the title Sleeping Dogs, the big screen debut for director Roger Donaldson (Cocktail, Species, Dante’s Peak) and leading man Sam Neill (Jurassic Park, Dead Calm, Event Horizon). Best line, upon the main character encountering his ex-wife’s previously conservative new beau: “You’re a guerrilla, you right wing prick!”

The Substack explores similar themes of western intelligence shenanigans and subversion in New Zealand, such the Mossad operation to aquire NZ passports, or police spies implanted in leftist groups. May be of interest to Kiwi barflies or anyone interested in Five Eyes machinations.

Posted by: S.P. Korolev | Nov 2 2025 21:05 utc | 52

I bought the 10,000 acre niobium/rare earths property for $425,000 Canadian in 2008. The group are buying a 50% interest for $20 Million Canadian.

Posted by: canuk | Nov 2 2025 17:02 utc | 22

***************

Is your statement strictly correct?

The “purchase” of this property amounts to $42.50 per acre, if my mental arithmetic is correct. The number seems familiar…

I guess what you really meant to say was that you made a payment which gave you some rights and which also imposed some obligations on you?

Posted by: General Factotum | Nov 2 2025 21:18 utc | 53

Venezuela?
spent a lot of time in Colombia, but never made it next door

Posted by: hightrekker | Nov 2 2025 21:19 utc | 54

So no, I am much better off selling the property in 2025 the property than buying the gold in 2008..Posted by: canuk | Nov 2 2025 17:02 utc | 22It’s out of the bag now, rich uncle skeleton. B and the gang expect a big donation this year!
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Nov 2 2025 18:10 utc | 29

*****************

Don’t be disrespectful, Mr. Barbus. This is just an appetizer!

Remember the ‘other’ Niobium and Gold site that was recently valued at $10,000,000,000 ?? When Mr. Canuk realises on that the whole bar will be awash. Yukon days merely a pale fleeting memory.

Heck, Mr. Canuk may even shout a round. Hope I don’t miss out – it’s been a long trot between watering holes.

Posted by: General Factotum | Nov 2 2025 21:25 utc | 55

“built housing.”
Peter AU

Yeah Peter that is what I read. When the first tranche of housing was built there were complaints from representatives of the Oligarchy ie World Bank, IMF etc, who warned that such “non-market solutions” meant Venezuela would be treated as an outcast by the Western financial community

Building homes for the poor and homeless is a big no-no for oligarchs.

Posted by: will moon | Nov 2 2025 21:30 utc | 56

Tom_Q_Collins@3…….nothing to do with isms, Canada by definition is a Socialist state…….whose hydro carbons are controled by the USA, Venezuela would differ how?

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Nov 2 2025 21:31 utc | 57

IMO, barflies will find this bringing forth a wide spectrum of emotions, Tulsi Gabbard’s Speech at the Manama Dialogue.

Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 2 2025 21:34 utc | 58

Mark2@50…….the Harrison Memorial? Where he literally blew the pants off everyone, a huge FU to the producers, one of those priceless moments in live music history with a back story worth just as much…….by far the funkiest assed dude to wear long boots , play guitar and rip rock the planet……

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Nov 2 2025 21:41 utc | 59

If confirmed this is the best case of F35 being useless beyond belief

Japan Has Been Operating F-35 Stealth Fighters ‘Missile Free’ For Eight Years – Reports

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/japan-operating-f35-missile-free

P.S.: Small table test below, maybe it works now?

a1
b1

a2
b2

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 2 2025 21:41 utc | 60

Posted by: steel_porcupine | Nov 2 2025 15:58 utc | 11

What’s strange, though, is the hyperventilating over DJT’s actions as if they fall aberrantly out of the rationale other presidents have employed. It is safe to say that DJT and his admin receive sin1gularly hyperbolic media coverage, unparalleled in the media coverage of prior administrations. On account of this media eccentricity, this unmatched perseveration, the propaganda saturation around DJT’s actions is particularly intense. The same words surface: authoritarian, dictatorial, tyrannical.

Sorry, no, I think it is just flat out falsifying the situation. And that’s not just because anyone who still pretends Fox News and the whole right-wing MSM are neither MSM nor propaganda is either a fool or a liar. In particular, I don’t think the liberal MSM is very much into denouncing Trump’s actions in the Caribbean as “authoritarian, dictatorial, tyrannical” when they do speak negatively. Why are the nebulous they missing the chance to compare Duterte and Trump if that were true? But most of all I most object to the moral imbecility of confusing what is superficially legal—supposedly approved by a Supreme Court decision—with what is democratic, authorized and just.

The whining of the Trump cultists about how their God is so, so unfairly persecuted, whipped, crowned with thorns, crucified and stabbed with a spear inspires zero sympathy from me. People like this were greatly offended at how the mass media mocked LBJ, then Nixon. They too sneered at the unpatriotic rabble for their madness and injustice and hated them for their Maoist Cultural Revolutionary witch hunts. I remember those assholes well….and I can tell you one asshole looks very much like another. [And it is perversely amusing to realize those assholes’ hysteria over long hair is matched by another set’s hysteria over trans.]

Posted by: steven t johnson | Nov 2 2025 21:45 utc | 61

PS @11 may be right about the ball room argument. But chances are good @11 is simply misrepresenting an argument about taking big money from big donors for officially public projects. I would follow links either to confirm or refute @11 on this…but I don’t care enough about the bloody ball room to spend the time.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Nov 2 2025 21:48 utc | 62

Please B
Get some help on posting tables OR allowing us to choose font for comments (and make a monospace available please)

In visual (before posting), tables work fine, they just don’t get posted as we see them (couple of weeks ago tried even simpler cases, it just ignores the td /collumns of tr’s

a1
b1

a2
b2

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 2 2025 21:50 utc | 63

Canada by definition is a Socialist state…….whose hydro carbons are controled by the USA, Venezuela would differ how?
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Nov Cheers M2 2025 21:31 utc | 57

———-
Canada is hybrid capitalist/socialist, like every other developed country in the world. The variation is in who benefits the most from the socialist side.

Posted by: Fool Me Twice | Nov 2 2025 21:57 utc | 64

‘Die Drohne Antiradar – the original Shahed drone’:

https://www.suasnews.com/2025/07/die-drohne-antiradar-the-original-shahed-drone/

Copied down to the truck launchers. German engineering is as always fantastic. Equally ‘fantastic’ is the b.s. of IRI’s cyber drones.

Posted by: public_service | Nov 2 2025 22:02 utc | 65

So much for the Western “democracy” and “freedom of speech.”

Posted by: S | Nov 2 2025 18:28 utc | 33

We are agreement that this is against the character of Western nations and a disturbing trend of becoming more like the authoritarian regimes. Possibly the Czech, having been under Russian (“Soviet”) occupation for so long were infected by the governance disease that continually plagues such countries.

It is not acceptable for the West to descend to the level of backward nations. It would be a tragedy for Humanity.

Posted by: public_service | Nov 2 2025 22:06 utc | 66

The variation is in who benefits the most from the socialist side.
Posted by: Fool Me Twice | Nov 2 2025 21:57 utc | 64

A better question for canadians might be. Who ISN’T benefiting from the socialist side? In canada cost has been socialized and profit privatized. Like every other developed country in the western world.

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Nov 2 2025 22:07 utc | 67

Posted by: steel_porcupine | Nov 2 2025 15:58 utc | 11 This anti-Communist clown, whose real politics are far right, likes to abuse Marxist terminology. But in this case, there is a gross abuse of the term real. It’s pretty clear that the usage here is supposed to mean, matching the ideal. Obviously insisting on this is confused, bordering on insane.

There is nothing that says history repeats itself, so that a Venezuelan revolution has to resemble either the French Revolution or the American Revolution. In fact, since neither of those were socialist revolutions, holding them up as the required models for a socialist revolution is also confused, bordering on insane. Even worse for the Marxist pretensions, historical materialism says that history isn’t cyclical, doesn’t repeat, and maybe doesn’t even rhyme. Really it implies that even if Venezuela were just another bourgeois democratic government, nothing says the Venezuela revolution has to resemble the Mexican revolution, much less the trajectory of Peronism, the APRISTAs in Peru or the Cuban revolution. (Which by the way the more committed Trotskyite wreckers still have trouble reconciling with their perverse so-called theory of permanent revolution.)

Given that a direct path to socialism is a direct path to war with the US, subterfuges and disguises are to be expected. The grain of truth is that much of the Venezuelan bourgeoisie was not directly expropriated nor is their a socialist war economy in place. But then, we can say the same of PRC, and we should know what to think of the so-called Marxists who think capitalism works. The Trotskyite wreckers I think believe there hasn’t been a truly socialist country since 1924, when Trotsky was defeated in the Politburo. (I confess I am always puzzled as to why they don’t place the counterrevolution in 1920, what with Kronstadt and the NEP.) In regards to Venezuela, the revisions to the constitutional order, the changes in the officer corps, the role of mass mobilizations in the entire proces but especially in the great rising that restored Chavez….all of these directly reworked the foundations of the bourgeois state in Venezuela. Was the old state vaporized? No….but is that a requirement, especially without losing WWI or WWII to smash the old state into rubble?

In any event, the notion that Venezuela now is the same as a post-Bolivarian Venezuela will be is preposterous. One might as well claim that the Weimar republic in Germany wasn’t a real bourgeois democracy because the Junkers weren’t run out of the officer corps and the landed estates weren’t expropriated. Or that New Deal America was just another capitalist reformist regime. Or for that matter that the American Civil War wasn’t a great revolution because it merely left in place a capitalist regime. Misunderstood words, however Marx flavored, mean nothing. On purpose I suspect.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Nov 2 2025 22:11 utc | 68

will moon | Nov 2 2025 21:30 utc | 56

Prior to the eighties, Australia used have a lot of public housing for low income families. Virtually every town had them. Low rents, and secure long term stability. I think that was virtually all privatized in the eighties, sold of quite cheap, but mostly to investors big and small. This house I bought to renovate, it was a housing commission house back them.

Nearly all western governments like to see the cost of housing and realestate driven up as they then say, look the economy is doing great, if real estate keeps going up. But it drives the cost of housing out of the reach of many. More and more rent, less and less own their own home. A continuing trend.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 2 2025 22:14 utc | 69

My @68 was directed against @28, Nero’s favorite living descendant.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Nov 2 2025 22:14 utc | 70

As this is also the open thread I’ll ask a provocative question

All good (lemons excluded) gen 3 and gen 4 jets from say, mid 1970’s to mid 1980’s, with up-rated avionics and modern missiles are still “par for the course” in a serious exchange.

If newly made, composites-heavy and new engines (apart from avionics and missiles already mentioned above for reconditioned old planes) , they are more than a reasonable beast to fly.

Apart from stealth (that can be mitigated, or suddenly nullified by some discovery or even just some things becoming practical ) , much of the last 40 years was hype.

Thoughts and critics welcome

P.S. RF has been pumping up production , I assume also pilot training, won’t the total number of available pilots a critical variable in any high attrition exchange?

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 2 2025 22:16 utc | 71

Newbie | Nov 2 2025 22:16 utc | 71

I believe I read some time back, the Pentagon cancelled its order of F-35’s and ordered more F-15’s.

As to high attrition, that would be against Russian, Chinese, Iranian defenses. Russia and China, not so much Iran have an airforce and I assume they would mostly work within the cover of their ground based defenses. I guess it would be more if Russia or China sent aircraft to help defend another country that something more akin to an air war might occur. As far as I know the last was Korea, when the Soviet Union fielded it first good fighter jet.

Mig 15? I forget the number but it ran rings around the American fighter of the day in Korea.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 2 2025 22:25 utc | 72

@71 Newbie

The older ones were too aggressive looking, so they had to pad them out a bit and that meant stealth was needed, which fitted with the new strategy of subjectivity and plausible deniability in various fields, found particularly in politics and media.

Basically most people are unarmed and don’t have air defense systems, so whatever.

Posted by: Ornot | Nov 2 2025 22:29 utc | 73

As per b’s article the other day on Trump’s nuclear testing….

Reuters – “The nuclear weapons testing ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump will not involve nuclear explosions at this time, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Sunday.”

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 2 2025 22:32 utc | 74

Posted by: steven t johnson | Nov 2 2025 22:11 utc | 68
I rarely agree with what you have to say, but today is an exception – that was a top post.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Nov 2 2025 22:41 utc | 75

@ Peter AU1 | Nov 2 2025 22:25 utc | 72

The MiG-15 was a nasty surprise for Western air forces still basking in the afterglow of WW2 air superiority over the Germans and Japanese.

Faster and more manoeuvrable than any of the propeller-driven aircraft available to the West at the time, it caused a flurry of ‘catch-up’ activity, leading to a new ladder of escalatory capabilities between the antagonists.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 2 2025 22:47 utc | 76

MOATS with George Galloway: ‘Haunted House’

https://www.youtube.com/GeorgeGallowayOfficial

With Chris Hedges and Sudanese analyst Mosaab Baba

Posted by: John Gilberts | Nov 2 2025 22:48 utc | 77

The MiG-15 was a nasty surprise for Western air forces still basking in the afterglow of WW2 air superiority over the Germans and Japanese.

Faster and more manoeuvrable than any of the propeller-driven aircraft available to the West at the time, it caused a flurry of ‘catch-up’ activity, leading to a new ladder of escalatory capabilities between the antagonists.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 2 2025 22:47 utc | 76

“In 1946, the British Labour government, led by Prime Minister Clement Attlee, authorized the sale of 40 Rolls-Royce Nene engines to the Soviet Union. This decision was made before the full onset of the Cold War, during a brief period of postwar diplomacy. The engines were sold under a commercial agreement with the condition that they would not be used for military purposes. A total of 55 Nene engines were ultimately delivered by 1947, along with technical documentation and blueprints.

“Seventeen Soviet engineers were even trained at the Rolls-Royce factory in Derby to maintain and repair the engines, facilitating deep technical understanding”

Posted by: public_service | Nov 2 2025 22:56 utc | 78

Addendum: the history of MiG aircraft can be a fascinating topic; apologies for Wikipedia but this seems fairly neutral: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Mikoyan_and_MiG_aircraft

I remember reading something fairly recently that suggested the Sukhoi Su-57 originally started as a MiG project.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 2 2025 22:56 utc | 79

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 2 2025 22:47 utc | 76

It was only a few years back I first read about the Mig-15 in Korea and it was a bit of a surprise to me just how far it outstripped the American planes of the day. Through WWII, I believe the Soviets produced the best ground attack plane of the era but did not field a good fighter aircraft. They seriously lacked in that area.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 2 2025 22:56 utc | 80

@ public_service | Nov 2 2025 22:56 utc | 78

Indeed, talk about the capitalists selling the rope to be used to hang them with…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 2 2025 22:58 utc | 81

One version of the story is that the Brits sold the jet engine because of a wager over a pool game. When Yakovlev suggested to Stalin that the Soviet get the technlogy for jet engines, which they couldn’t manage on their own :(, Stalin famously had asked “What fool would sell us his secrets?”

Now some conspiracy minded people point to episodes like this to support the idea that the entire Cold War and the continuing saga of West vs East is just a show for the unwashed masses. I mean, pretty much everything that got the Russians off the wheat fields and into the factories was either gifted to, sold to, or stolen by, the Soviets from the West.

Posted by: public_service | Nov 2 2025 23:05 utc | 82

Posted by: public_service | Nov 2 2025 22:56 utc | 78
.
.

Pretty much this. Sov jet and all aviation technology was deficient, but the bongs gave them their jet engine technology, and they reverse engineered the US B-29 heavy bomber, so they scabbled along until their own own houses could finally produce quality eqpt.

Posted by: seer | Nov 2 2025 23:15 utc | 83

Posted by: Newbie | Nov 2 2025 22:16 utc | 71
Interesting topic. If we think about the history of air power, we see that it isn’t very long and tremendous advances have been made. From barely airworthy stringbag biplanes circa 1910 to all metal monoplanes and the early jet age in 1950. From 1950 to circa 1990 with supersonic flight.
All of the easy/obvious advances that were there to be made have been made.
Since then each incremental improvement comes at exponentionally higher cost, increasing complexity of the airframe (and corresponding cost per unit, servicing times and extra pilot training) I think the days of massed aerial dogfights are long gone. The last time that happened was Korea and maybe Vietnam.
During the last Indo-Pakistan conflict the dogfights consisted of two jets manoeuvering at great distance hoping to catch the other within the firing range of their AAMs, whilst not getting taken out by enemy SAMS. Not really sustainable and to what end anyway.
Things seem to be moving on, rather like the way armoured battleships were once the leading edge of naval warfare, they were rendered obsolete by aircraft carriers.
These days, drones, stand-off weapons and advanced missilery look like being far more important forms of airpower than those old style flying machines.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Nov 2 2025 23:16 utc | 84

public_service | Nov 2 2025 23:05 utc | 82

Its been pretty much the same throughout history, a technology developed somewhere ends up migrating or spreading. Now Russian and Chinese tech in so many areas is ahead of the west. History has never stood still, always changing.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 2 2025 23:18 utc | 85

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 2 2025 22:58 utc | 81
Well, there may have been a bit of realpolitik going on. Britain was totally bankrupt by then with an unsustainable and undefendable empire.
Exports were needed (the Soviets paid in gold too) and there was a quiet school of thought that said it was not good for one group (e.g. the Yanks) to have all the power.
Sadly Churchill and Montgomery did not agree so we ended up with Cold War I on top of the crushing multi-generational war debts.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Nov 2 2025 23:25 utc | 86

ChatNPC | Nov 2 2025 23:16 utc | 84

When I was flying, I had a rotax four stroke. It was very reliable. When I looked up the power to weight ratios of WWII piston aircraft engines, by the end of WWII, aircraft piston engines had not changed in power to weight since then. The only change was less maintenance hours due to more modern metallurgy and lubricants.

In auto engines though there is a great difference, especially with the introduction of electronic fuel injection variable cams and so forth. In this, I’m only looking at regular engines with long service life rather than race engines.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 2 2025 23:30 utc | 87

Now Russian and Chinese tech in so many areas is ahead of the west. History has never stood still, always changing.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 2 2025 23:18 utc | 85

No evidence of any advanced by Russians as far leading edge technology is concerned. Semiconductors? Nyet. AI? Nyet. After all, they reportedly gave a ton of gold to IRI to get license of their copycat of the German Die Drohne :)) Auch. They could have googled it 🙂 No wonder they got pissed and publicly announced “we are getting arms from IRI” so IRI got sanctioned for it. Oy vey. What they do excel at is jumbo sized devil’s devices designed to “doomsday” the planet. Because ya know, if Mother Russia can’t thrive we all must die.

The Chinese, in contrast, have always been an innovative people modulo a few eras of stagnation. No one can deny this. It is however also true that it is only since Deng went to Washington, cowboy hat in hand, and the Western “leaders” decided to give them everything that they have arrived at their current state of development. Another key factor was ditching ideology and adopting Western tendencies.

The West can trivially recover given its historic record of deveopment and innovation in (every?) field known to mankind.

Posted by: public_service | Nov 2 2025 23:35 utc | 88

A clip showing the evolution of Soviet then Russian MiG fighters from 1940 to today.

https://x.com/juan_moment/status/1985128391876772345

Posted by: Juan Moment | Nov 2 2025 23:39 utc | 89

The West can trivially recover given its historic record of deveopment and innovation in (every?) field known to mankind.

Posted by: public_service | Nov 2 2025 23:35 utc | 88

Of course they can, though they might need to focus on reducing their indebtedness first…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 2 2025 23:42 utc | 90

public_service | Nov 2 2025 23:35 utc | 88

hypersonics that run in plasma? Miniature nuclear engines with exceptionally high power density. Much more.

Chips. China is taking the lead in that area. Silica chips have virtually reached apex and can not be developed much more. China has developed a number of new technologies far faster than silica. A number of these will be coming online (production) in the next decade.

As for stealing, selling technologies, electrical and chemical deposition was developed and first used in the Soviet Union. It was somewhat late getting to the west but now virtually all carbide cutting tools, apart from cutters for aluminium, have an exceptionally hard wearing coating over the tungsten carbide substrate.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 2 2025 23:47 utc | 91

Posted by: steven t johnson | Nov 2 2025 21:45 utc | 61

RE: “most of all I most object to the moral imbecility of confusing what is superficially legal—supposedly approved by a Supreme Court decision—with what is democratic, authorized and just”

<<

Dude, it is not just that these legalities were “supposedly approved by a Supreme Court decision.” The high court quite literally weighed in. The Supreme Court is part of the U.S. system. Deal with it.

Let’s certainly pit what is democratic, authorized and just against what is superficially legal according to the U.S. Supreme Court, however. But we would have to do it somewhere other than in the U.S.

This is the U.S. system, man.

Conjure up an idealized country, let alone a hegemonic empire, where these sorts of things would not take place—but given all the variables such a country (or empire) will not & does not exist.

Given the precedents set by other Executive Branches from at least shrub-Bush through Obama, the U.S. finds itself at this particular point in time. Inconveniently, DJT seems fully prepared to capitalize on what was bequeathed to him by prior admins.

I’m not saying I endorse his actions.

I’m saying that a chronology has led us (in the U.S.) to this moment.

I get it that they, the Dems & the media & other Permanent Washington types, don’t like it, chiefly because DJT is helming the current initiative. They were mum, however, when favored executives like shrub-Bush and Obama helmed quite similar efforts.

I think it is okay to note the hypocrisies. And to interrogate them.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | Nov 3 2025 0:04 utc | 92

“Faster and more manoeuvrable than any of the propeller-driven aircraft available to the West at the time, it caused a flurry of ‘catch-up’ activity, leading to a new ladder of escalatory capabilities between the antagonists. ”

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang@22:47

Not sure about the above Jeremy. North American F86 Sabres fought in Korea. These jet air superiority fighters owed a considerable debt to the Messerschmitt 262, a German jet aeroplane produced at the end of WW2. Hitler ordered a fighter-bomber version of the ME 262 even though the jet fighter model was superior to all allied models, including the then dominant P-51 North American Mustang. A considerable number of air combat wonks suggest if the Me 262 fighter had been produced in sufficient numbers, the aerial bombardment of Germany could have been halted – diverting effort to make the machine a fighter-bomber as well as a fighter was disastrous. It was the best fighter of WW2 by quite some distance

“F-86, U.S. single-seat, single-engine jet fighter built by North American Aviation, Inc., the first jet fighter in the West to exploit aerodynamic principles learned from German engineering at the close of World War II. The F-86 was built with the wings swept back in order to reduce transonic drag rise as flight speed approached the sound barrier, and it was capable of exceeding the speed of sound in a dive. A prototype was first flown in October 1947, and the first squadron became operational in 1949. In December 1950, U.S. pilots flying F-86s began history’s first large-scale jet fighter combat against Soviet-built MiG-15s in Korea. Though inferior to the MiG-15 in weight of armament, turn radius, and maximum speed at combat altitude, the F-86 quickly established supremacy over its Soviet adversary, in part because of its superior handling characteristics. In September 1958, Sabres flown by Chinese Nationalists (also against MiG-15s) became the first jets to fire guided air-to-air missiles in combat.” excerpt from Britanica dot com

There was a serious problem with the F86’s hi tech gunsight when it first entered combat against the MIG’s – it didn’t work! Pilots learnt to turn it off and stick a blob of chewing gum on the windscreen where the tracer lines of the aircraft’s cannon met! It became known as, of course, “The Gumsight”. I think by the start of 51 the problem was resolved

ps My dad was conscripted into the RAF in 1949 becoming a pilot and flew a De Haviland Vampire, the second jet aircraft the RAF fielded. The machine was used in a ground attack role in Korea and he flew many combat missions before his National Service came to end

Posted by: will moon | Nov 3 2025 0:07 utc | 93

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 2 2025 23:47 utc | 91

Look Peter, we simply look at the historic flow of technology and know how. We consider where various nations send their students to learn. I realize this is upsetting in some quarters but the facts are crystal clear. No one is saying that Russians are stupid, they too have their brains but their historic problem is cultural. The Period Table was dreamed up by a Russian but it was the Germans who were pushing the envelope in Chemistry. The Russians still haven’t debugged their cultural issues. Historic pattern will repeat until they change.

As I said, China has always been innovative but even the Chinese will openly admit that they have hugely benefited from the access given to them by the West. West has practically given them various keys to the kingdom. The honest Chinese scientist and technologists (like the creator of DeepSeek) openly admit this. I feel this is because Chinese do not suffer from an inferiority complex given their substantial historic record (as in tens of hundreds of years) of being a world class civilization.

// so you are back to your whisperings from Lookout Mountain again you ^spook^. it won’t work //

Posted by: public_service | Nov 3 2025 0:10 utc | 94

will moon | Nov 3 2025 0:07 utc | 93

Yeah, my understanding was that the Sabre was a jet and that’s the one the Migs flew rings around. My understanding was the Americans had to quickly develop a new aircraft, I assume the F-86 you mention.
My understanding is it still did not match up to the Mig but it put the Americans closer to an equal footing.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 3 2025 0:13 utc | 95

Posted by: Mark2 | Nov 2 2025 20:57 utc | 50

RE: anyone fancy some Prince-?

<<

Remembering “Little Red Corvette” quite fondly: youth & wisdom collide.

Posted by: steel_porcupine | Nov 3 2025 0:16 utc | 96

Posted by: titmouse | Nov 2 2025 19:30 utc | 38

RE: if there’s a bustle in the hedgerow

<<

It’s just a spring clean for the May Queen

Posted by: steel_porcupine | Nov 3 2025 0:21 utc | 97

public_service | Nov 3 2025 0:10 utc | 94

Cut the “Look Peter” crap. I have zero time for fantasies about the anglo European world being the leader in everything, always has been and always will.

The emerging next gen technologies are now centered on Russia and China. The US has built some good stuff in its day as have many western countries but that day is over. A collapsing education system and culture and US especially can build nothing that works anymore. Apart from social media algorithms.

When it comes to miltech, the SR-71 blackbird was the absolute pinnacle of western expertise. An incredible aircraft, but the US has to get its titanium from the Soviet union as it could not make the shit. US has only gone downhill since then.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 3 2025 0:29 utc | 98

…some gentle music to see through to next page…

https://www.foxsoundi.com/track/498772285/nights-on-caledonia-terrace

Posted by: Ornot | Nov 3 2025 0:31 utc | 99

public_service | Nov 3 2025 0:10 utc | 94

Things like the closed cycle rocket engine.The Americans couldn’t build them. They found them just laying in a warehouse after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Why do you think the pentagon was buying its rocket engines from Russia? Musks rocket STEM. Where did that come from? The old Soviet design bureau in Dnipro Ukraine.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 3 2025 1:00 utc | 100

Back to Main

Leave a Comment