My assessment of the Trump’s 28-Point Ukraine Plan was not correct:
The plan as it is is dead in the water, stillborn or however you may want to characterize this collection of ill-defined, non-binding and ridiculous clauses. No one will ever accept it.
Russia’s President has somewhat accepted the plan when he said that it could “serve as a foundation for a final peace settlement”. He complained however that no U.S. contact was willing to discuss the details with Russia:
The reason, in my opinion, is the same: the US administration has so far been unable to secure consent from the Ukrainian side, as Ukraine is opposed to it. Apparently, Ukraine and its European allies continue to entertain the illusion that they can inflict a strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield. I believe this position is not so much the result of insufficient competence – I will not go into that now – but rather stems from an absence of objective information about the actual situation on the ground.
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Either Kiev’s leadership lacks objective reporting about the developments on the front, or, even if they receive such information, they are unable to assess it objectively. If Kiev refuses to discuss President Trump’s proposals and declines to engage in dialogue, then both they and their European instigators must understand that what happened in Kupyansk will inevitably occur in other key areas of the front. Perhaps not as quickly as we would prefer, but inevitably.And overall, this development suits us, as it leads to achieving the goals of the special military operation by force, through armed confrontation. However, as I have repeatedly stated, we remain ready for peace negotiations and for resolving issues through peaceful means. However, this, of course, requires substantive and meaningful discussion of all aspects of the proposed plan. We are prepared for this.
The Europeans issued their own plan which is just a repeat of their old demand of a ceasefire without conceding any of Russia’s demand. They are obviously trying to prevent an agreement.
But they have no place at the table. They are on the menu. Trump wants them to pay for HIS peace plan and, in the end, they will do so.
The acting president of Ukraine Vladimir Zelenski knows that he can not outright reject Trump’s plan. He would be blamed for not wanting peace and U.S. support would be finished. He thus asks, prodded by the Europeans, for changes that Russia will surely reject.
My understanding is that there will soon be another meeting (or phonecall) between Zelenski and Trump.
If Trump accepts Zelenski’s changes to key points of the plan Russia will have to reject it even as a base for discussions. Trump will then be pressed to put more sanctions on Russia. The war will escalate and continue.
If Trump rejects changes to key points in the plan then Zelenski will have to reject it. Trump will end U.S. intelligence and other support for Ukraine which will lead to a faster defeat of Ukraine and the end of the war.
Russia, as Putin says, is fine with either decision.