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Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 30, 2025
Palestine Open Thread 2025-277

News & views related to the war in Palestine …

Ukraine Open Thread 2025-276

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

The MoA Week In Review – OT 2025-275

Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:

> Trump does not have the legal power to close the airspace over another country, even as he appeared to be threatening an attack or seeking to push Venezuela’s leaders to think he was contemplating one. <


Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2025-275

November 29, 2025
Trump Pardons Drug Smuggler, Threatens Venezuela

Trump’s South America policy is getting more ridiculous by the day.

Yesterday he announced a pardon for the former president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernández, who is serving a 45-year sentence for partnering with drug traffickers who had allegedly shipped 400 tons of cocaine to the United States. He also endorsed a right wing candidate Nasry “Tito” Asfura for Sunday’s election in Honduras. Asfura belongs to the same party as Hernández.

This is unlikely (archived) to have the effect that Trump desires:

The reaction to Mr. Trump’s pardon in Honduras was one of shock, and many wondered how it would play into the elections this weekend.

“It will obviously stir up the same powerful negative sentiment seen in the 2021 elections that pushed Juan Orlando out of power,” said Leonardo Pineda, a Honduran analyst, who said that by linking the conservative candidate, Mr. Asfura, with Mr. Hernández, Mr. Trump could actually hurt his chances of winning.

While pardoning a convicted drug smuggler on one day Trump uses the next one to threatening Venezuela for alleged drug smuggling for which there is no evidence.

A week ago the Federal Aviation Administration has issued a Notice To Air Man (NOTAM) for Venezuela:

The alert speaks of a ‘worsening security situation and heightened military activity in or around Venezuela.’

‘Threats could pose a potential risk to aircraft at all altitudes, including during overflight, the arrival and departure phases of flight, and/or airports and aircraft on the ground,’ the FAA notice states.

The warning is for the Maiquetía Flight Information Region which includes Venezuelan airspace and parts of the southern Caribbean – such as Colombia, Guyana, Brazil, and Trinidad.

Venezuela responded by revoking operation rights for airlines which were following that advice.

Today Trump made an explicit threat to all airplanes in Venezuelan airspace:

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump – Nov 29, 2025, 12:43 UTC

To all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers, please consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY. Thank you for your attention to this matter! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP

But is he going to do? Order the military to shoot down random passenger planes?

Before that Trump had announced land operations in Venezuela:

President Trump suggested Thursday the United States will “very soon” take action against alleged Venezuelan drug traffickers on land after weeks of repeated strikes in Caribbean waters.

“In recent weeks, you’ve been working to deter Venezuelan drug traffickers, of which there are many,” Trump told military personnel in remarks on Thanksgiving. “Of course, there aren’t too many coming in by sea anymore.”

“You probably noticed that people aren’t wanting to be delivering by sea, and we’ll be starting to stop them by land also,” he continued.

“The land is easier, but that’s going to start very soon. We warn them: Stop sending poison to our country,” Trump added.

The threat is empty. There is no real option for a military land operation in Venezuela.

All Trump assertions about Venezuela, its alleged ‘terrorist gangs’ and drug smuggling are completely bogus.

This is not at all about drugs but about stealing the huge oil reserve Venzuela has:

Cont. reading: Trump Pardons Drug Smuggler, Threatens Venezuela

November 28, 2025
Ukraine Rejects Trump’s Peace Plan – U.S. Reacts To Its Defiance

After rejecting a plan that would see Ukraine concede territory to Russia its leadership has come under new pressure.

Trump’s 28-point Ukraine plan, leaked by former U.S. envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg, was an attempt to shut the war down – at least for now. The European dimwits, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Ukrainian ruler managed to sabotage it:

One camp, including Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and other officials, views Ukraine as the primary obstacle to peace and favors using U.S. leverage to force Kyiv to make major compromises, according to multiple current and former officials.

The other camp, represented by Rubio and other officials, sees Russia as the culprit for having launched an unprovoked invasion of its neighbor and says Moscow will relent only if it pays a price for its aggression through sanctions and other pressure.

With his deputies vying for his attention along with Republican lawmakers and European leaders, President Donald Trump has veered back and forth on how to resolve the conflict.

While the 28-point plan included several points Russia could not agree to (like a 600,000 strong Ukrainian army), it also included significant concession Ukraine would have to make. It could have been the base for further discussions with Russia. But Rubio allowed the Ukrainians to shrink the plan down to 19 points by taking out any Ukrainian concessions while adding erroneous demands (a 800,000 strong Ukrainian army) which are unacceptable to Russia.

Trump is, as usual, behaving like a weathervane unable or unwilling to force his will on the opponents of his plan.

The Ukrainian army is collapsing. Pokrovsk had been enveloped and occupied a week ago. But Zelenski and others kept claimed that the Ukrainian was winning that battle. As the army breaks down and its soldiers flee from their positions (in Russian) other cities, like Huleipole and Siversk, will soon fall too.

There is no way for Ukraine to win the war. The longer the war takes the more will be lost for Ukraine.

The utter delusion behind the rejection of Trump’s 28 point plan was demonstrated by the European High Representative for Foreign Affairs Katja Kallas:

“We still need to get from a situation where Russia pretends to negotiate to a situation where they need to negotiate”

Sure. And how are going to get there? After 19 rounds of EU sanction on Russia the 20th package will certainly take care of it?

During the latest round of negotiations the acting president of Ukraine Vladimir Zelenski had named the chief of his office Andrei Yermak and the Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council Rustem Umerov as negotiators.
This was widely seen as an attempt to protect both persons from prosecution for their involvement in a recent case of large scale corruption.

Yermak admitted as much when he called up Simon Shuster at The Atlantic to put an end to the current round of negotiations:

Volodymyr Zelensky, in the next phase of talks to end the war in Ukraine, intends to draw a red line at the most contentious issue on the table: the Russian demand for Ukraine’s sovereign territory. As long as he remains the nation’s president, Zelensky will not agree to give up land in exchange for peace, Ukraine’s chief negotiator, Andriy Yermak, told me today in an exclusive interview.

“Not a single sane person today would sign a document to give up territory,” said Yermak, who has served as Zelensky’s chief of staff, lead negotiator, and closest aide throughout the full-scale war with Russia.

“As long as Zelensky is president, no one should count on us giving up territory. He will not sign away territory,” he told me by telephone from Kyiv. “The constitution prohibits this. Nobody can do that unless they want to go against the Ukrainian constitution and the Ukrainian people.”

Russia will ignore such nonsense and take by force whatever territory it thinks it needs. Further down Yermak explains to Shuster why he was tasked with negotiations:

In our interview, Yermak responded at length for the first time to the investigation and the resulting calls for him to step aside. “The pressure is enormous,” he told me. “The case is fairly loud, and there needs to be an objective and independent investigation without political influence.”

By appointing him to lead Ukraine’s negotiating team despite the scandal, Zelensky made clear to the people of Ukraine that Yermak continues to enjoy his trust, he said. The people of Ukraine “see that I have been beside the president all these years during all the most difficult, tragic, and dangerous moments,” Yermak said. “He trusted me with these negotiations that will decide the fate of our country. And if people support the president, that should answer all their questions.”

Ukraine has now officially rejected the core element – land for peace – of Trump’s plan. The U.S. immediately responded to this open defiance. Today, by using its control over the Ukrainian National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and various ‘nationalist’ and fascist media in Ukraine, it hit back at Yermak:

The National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) are conducting searches at the office of Andrii Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, in the government district on the morning of 28 November.

Source: Ukrainska Pravda journalist at the scene

Details: Ukrainska Pravda journalists managed to record around 10 employees from NABU and SAPO entering the government district.

The independent Ukrainian outlet Strana summarizes the political background of this action (machine translation):

Observers drew attention to the fact that the searches began just before the visit of US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, a representative of Donald Trump, to Kiev. According to a popular version, he should put pressure on the Ukrainian authorities to agree to concessions under the Trump peace plan, including with regard to the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donbass.

And just yesterday, Yermak solemnly proclaimed that as long as Vladimir Zelensky is president, Ukraine will not make territorial concessions.

Therefore, many people in political circles associate the searches of Yermak’s apartment with these events. That is, according to this version, Washington, with the help of NABU, makes it clear to Zelensky that the situation is serious and it’s time to adjust the position on the peace plan.

According to another version, the searches are connected with the long-running line of the “anti-Green coalition” to deprive the president of real power and turn him into the “queen of England” by losing control of the parliamentary majority and the government. One of the central elements of this plan is the dismissal of Yermak, which Zelensky has so far refused to do. But now, apparently, they decided to present him with new arguments in favor of such a step.

I seriously doubt the second explanation though this is not a neither nor situation. NABU is unlikely to act on anything without having a green light from the U.S. ambassador in Kiev.

Zelenski and Yermak will certainly hit back at NABU. A few month ago they had already tried to neuter it but had to retreat under pressure from Washington and Europe. They can use security services under their control -Ukraine’s FBI equivalent SBU –  to arrest and indict NABU official.

The race is on.

Who will be the first to be arrested: Andrei Yermak or the chief investigators of NABU?

November 27, 2025
Palestine Open Thread 2025-274

News & views related to the war in Palestine …

Ukraine Open Thread 2025-273

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2025-272

News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine …

November 26, 2025
Navy Shows Why The U.S. Is Losing Its Relative Power

The defeat of the west is in part happening because its loss of the ability to sensibly analyze and manage things. A consequence is the relative loss of power.

Here it is the U.S. Navy demonstrating the issue:

Navy Cuts Constellation-Class Frigate Program Short as Shipbuilding Delays MountgCaptain

The U.S. Navy announced Tuesday it is terminating four ships from its troubled Constellation-class frigate program before construction begins, marking a significant strategic shift as the service grapples with mounting delays and seeks faster alternatives for fleet expansion.

Secretary of the Navy John Phelan revealed the decision on social media, stating that while the first two frigates—Constellation (FFG-62) and Congress (FFG-63)—will proceed to completion at Fincantieri Marinette Marine’s Wisconsin shipyard, the Navy has reached a “comprehensive framework” with the Italian-owned contractor to cancel the next four planned vessels in the class.

The announcement comes as the program faces severe schedule challenges. The lead ship, originally slated for delivery in April 2026, is now expected three years later in April 2029—a 36-month delay that has raised concerns about the Navy’s ability to execute its modernization plans.

Over the last 20+ years the Navy ship building management has not delivered even one class of ships on time and within the projected price frame. Moreover none ever reached the desired and promised capabilities.

Once there were to be 32 Zumwalt-class destroyers each with 16,000 tons of displacement. Only three were build and only two are active. The ships were supposed to carry new technologies which turned out to be too complicate and too expensive:

Cont. reading: Navy Shows Why The U.S. Is Losing Its Relative Power

November 25, 2025
Executive Order Provides For Bailout Of Overextended AI Companies

In December 2024 President Donald Trump named venture capitalist David O. Sacks as the “White House A.I. & Crypto Czar.”

Sacks is set to guide the administration’s policies for artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency.

AI-researcher Gary Markus is wondering how two recent tweets by Gary Sacks relate to each other:

One theory of capitalism holds that every company should be left to their own devices, with state intervention kept a minimum. This view was well articulated just a few weeks ago, by White House AI and Crypto Czar and well-known podcaster, David O. Sacks:

David Sacks @DavidSacks – 16:52 UTC · Nov 6, 2025

There will be no federal bailout for AI. The U.S. has at least 5 major frontier model companies. If one fails, others will take its place.

The other theory of capitalism, if we can indeed call it that, holds that we should bailout important companies or industries that might overextend themselves. Quite the opposite from the above.

This latter theory, almost a form of safety-net socialism for overextended companies, seemed to be implied today, in a tweet that seemed to be laying the groundwork for bailout, by none other than … White House AI and Crypto Czar and well-known podcaster, David O. Sacks:

David Sacks @DavidSacks – 17:34 UTC · Nov 24, 2025

According to today’s WSJ, AI-related investment accounts for half of GDP growth. A reversal would risk recession. We can’t afford to go backwards.

The WSJ report Sacks mentions, archived here, is indeed gloomy:

Cont. reading: Executive Order Provides For Bailout Of Overextended AI Companies

November 24, 2025
The Current State Of The 28-Point Plan

My assessment of the Trump’s 28-Point Ukraine Plan was not correct:

The plan as it is is dead in the water, stillborn or however you may want to characterize this collection of ill-defined, non-binding and ridiculous clauses. No one will ever accept it.

Russia’s President has somewhat accepted the plan when he said that it could “serve as a foundation for a final peace settlement”. He complained however that no U.S. contact was willing to discuss the details with Russia:

The reason, in my opinion, is the same: the US administration has so far been unable to secure consent from the Ukrainian side, as Ukraine is opposed to it. Apparently, Ukraine and its European allies continue to entertain the illusion that they can inflict a strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield. I believe this position is not so much the result of insufficient competence – I will not go into that now – but rather stems from an absence of objective information about the actual situation on the ground.

Either Kiev’s leadership lacks objective reporting about the developments on the front, or, even if they receive such information, they are unable to assess it objectively. If Kiev refuses to discuss President Trump’s proposals and declines to engage in dialogue, then both they and their European instigators must understand that what happened in Kupyansk will inevitably occur in other key areas of the front. Perhaps not as quickly as we would prefer, but inevitably.

And overall, this development suits us, as it leads to achieving the goals of the special military operation by force, through armed confrontation. However, as I have repeatedly stated, we remain ready for peace negotiations and for resolving issues through peaceful means. However, this, of course, requires substantive and meaningful discussion of all aspects of the proposed plan. We are prepared for this.

The Europeans issued their own plan which is just a repeat of their old demand of a ceasefire without conceding any of Russia’s demand. They are obviously trying to prevent an agreement.

But they have no place at the table. They are on the menu. Trump wants them to pay for HIS peace plan and, in the end, they will do so.

The acting president of Ukraine Vladimir Zelenski knows that he can not outright reject Trump’s plan. He would be blamed for not wanting peace and U.S. support would be finished. He thus asks, prodded by the Europeans, for changes that Russia will surely reject.

My understanding is that there will soon be another meeting (or phonecall) between Zelenski and Trump.

If Trump accepts Zelenski’s changes to key points of the plan Russia will have to reject it even as a base for discussions. Trump will then be pressed to put more sanctions on Russia. The war will escalate and continue.

If Trump rejects changes to key points in the plan then Zelenski will have to reject it. Trump will end U.S. intelligence and other support for Ukraine which will lead to a faster defeat of Ukraine and the end of the war.

Russia, as Putin says, is fine with either decision.

November 23, 2025
Palestine Open Thread 2025-271

News & views related to the war in Palestine …

Ukraine Open Thread 2025-270

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

The MoA Week In Review – OT 2025-269

Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:


Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2025-269

November 22, 2025
Kellogg Fired Over Leaking 28-Point Plan – Proposal Designed To Trap Putin

It seems that Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, got fired over leaking news of the 28-point ‘peace plan’. Let’s follow the traces.

On Tuesday the 18th November someone ‘leaked’ to Axios reporter Barak Ravid who then wrote the first story of Trump’s new plan for Ukraine.

Scoop: U.S. secretly drafting new plan to end Ukraine war

The plan’s 28 points fall into four general buckets, sources tell Axios: peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, security in Europe, and future U.S. relations with Russia and Ukraine.

Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff is leading the drafting of the plan and has discussed it extensively with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, a U.S. official said.

Shortly thereafter Steve Witkoff made a mistake on Twitter when he sent a response meant for a private direct message to the public side of his account. He soon deleted it but someone had already taken a screenshot.


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On Thursday, the 20th of November, the New York Post mentioned it:

Cont. reading: Kellogg Fired Over Leaking 28-Point Plan – Proposal Designed To Trap Putin

November 21, 2025
Trump’s 28-Point Ukraine Plan

There seem to be several version or translation of Trump’s new ‘peace plan’ for Ukraine.

I believe that the one below, originally published (archived) by the Financial Times, is the most accurate version.

The plan as it is is dead in the water, stillborn or however you may want to characterize this collection of ill-defined, non-binding and ridiculous clauses. No one will ever accept it.

But it includes a few U.S. concessions to Russia that will be taken and preserved for later negotiations.

Cont. reading: Trump’s 28-Point Ukraine Plan

November 20, 2025
High Noon In Kiev

The ‘new’ Trump plan to end the war in Ukraine, mentioned here yesterday, is unlikely to come to fruition.

Russia has said that it does not have any official knowledge of the plan or its content. But there are several reasons for it to reject it.

The Telegraph claims that the plan does not acknowledge that the Donbas and Luhansk are part of Russia but only allows for Russia to ‘lease’ the territory:

The Trump administration deal would see Kyiv cede control of the eastern Donbas region, but maintain legal ownership. Russia would pay an undisclosed rental fee for de facto control of the region, officials familiar with the deal told The Telegraph.

There is also the role of NATO which the Trump administration’s plan does not mention:

As European and U.S. officials alike sought clarity, they said many aspects of the plan remained in flux, including the role of NATO and any Ukrainian territorial concessions to Russia.

One aspect U.S. officials are still pondering is whether and how to mention NATO, the person said. The discussion of NATO has not been previously reported.

Ukraine has sought NATO membership as a security guarantee against a future Russian invasion. While some European countries support that, the U.S. has rejected it and Moscow has long demanded Kyiv not join the defensive alliance, viewing that as a threat. The European allies also worry about granting Russia territorial concessions, which they see as rewarding Moscow’s aggression and setting a concerning precedent.

Those European allies who reject the peace plan and are concerned about precedent should look up ‘Kosovo’ and how that came into being.

The prospect of NATO membership of Ukraine was one of the main reasons for starting the war. Russia will not allow NATO, or any other military ‘security guarantee’ for Ukraine, along its western borders. Ukraine’s explicit rejection of entering NATO will have to be part of any acceptable peace agreement.

Ukraine’s acting President is not willing to agree to the plan. He now sees the recent revealing of the corruption scandal involving his friend Mindich as part of an operation to press him to fire his chief of office Andrei Yermak and to accept Trump’s peace plan. He will argue that Russia is pulling the strings on each of these issues:

Cont. reading: High Noon In Kiev

November 19, 2025
Ukraine SitRep – Power Play In Kiev And Chaos At The Front

The situation in Ukraine is becoming even more complicate.

The war on the frontline is going bad for Ukraine as is the war on infrastructure deep behind the contact line.

A corruption scandal is used to neuter President Zelenski. New power structures are set to evolve to further the execution of the war. President Trump is attempting to impose another peace effort while Europe finds that it lacks the money to finance Ukraine and the war.

There are at least seven cities which are falling or are destined to fall within the next few month.


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Kupyansk is largely under Russian control. During the last days Russian forces took some 25% of Siversk. Pokrovsk is to 95% in Russian hands. Fighting in its encircled sister city Mirnograd is slowly coming to an end. The road between Pokrovske and Guliaipole has been taken. The later city is thus cut off from its main supply line and will soon be encircled.

The Ukrainian command had thrown in all its reserves to prevent the taking of Prokovsk and Kupiyansk. It was to no avail.

All regular Ukrainian brigades lack infantry. The constant Russian drone attacks have also taken a large toll on the logistic elements of those units.

General Syrski, the Ukrainian commander in chief, had set his bet on newly developed assault units to allow for offensive action while neglecting the general brigades which have to hold the lines. The weakened lines broke down when the Russian infiltrate them. Assault units were sent in and wasted on counterattacks that were supposed to stop further Russian breakthroughs but failed to have significant effects.

Defense fortifications and buildings can no longer protect the soldiers. Each day Russia is using 200 or more glide bombs to demolish them. Drones and artillery strikes follow. Russian infantry sneaks in to mop up remaining resistance.

It is a fairly slow process but it works for the Russians and is causing them a minimum of casualties.

The war on infrastructure far behind the line of contact is also preceding at a high pace. Ukraine had rejected the ceasefire on infrastructure previously agreed to by President Trump and President Putin. It has continued attacks on Russian oil refineries and other energy facilities with drones and missiles. They have so far done too little damage to slow down the Russian economy.

Russia has responded to those strikes by launching thousands of drones and missile against Ukrainian electricity and heating facilities causing up to 18 hours of blackout per day even in large Ukrainian cities. Another Russian target are railway depots where locomotives are maintained. Hundreds of them have been destroyed in such strikes.

The lack of electricity and mass transport have all but stopped large scale production of industrial goods. The economy suffers. Tax income decreases.

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep – Power Play In Kiev And Chaos At The Front

November 18, 2025
The Defeat Of The West And Europe’s Bleak Future

No post today, sorry, but two good talks to listen to:

November 17, 2025
Ukraine Is Buying Fighter Jets With Money It Does Not Have?

Over the next two years Ukraine plans to spend some €140 billion ($162b) it does not have to continue its war with Russia. There is serious doubt that the European Union, which has already shuffled €180 billion ($216b) to Ukraine, will be able to pay even a fraction of that.

Despite Ukraine’s lack of money it acting president Vladimir Zelenski is announcing deals to procure expensive military aircraft at an unprecedented scale.

In late October he went to Sweden to buy JAS 39 Gripen-E multi-role fighter jets build by Saab:

Ukraine could get 150 advanced Swedish fighter jets under just-signed dealCNN, Oct 23 2025

New NATO member Sweden has said it is willing to sell Ukraine up to 150 of its most advanced fighter jets, the first offer from a member of the alliance to supply significant numbers of jets to Kyiv, which is seeking to upgrade its small and ageing air force.

The deal signed on Wednesday by Volodymyr Zelensky and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is a letter of understanding, meaning exact terms, costs and delivery dates for 100 to 150 Saab Gripen-E jets are yet to be determined.

But both leaders said it has the potential to be a game changer, not only for Ukraine – which desperately needs more air combat capabilities in its fight against Russia – but for NATO and European security overall.

The planes ain’t cheap:
Cont. reading: Ukraine Is Buying Fighter Jets With Money It Does Not Have?