News & views related to the war in Palestine …
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November 30, 2025
Palestine Open Thread 2025-277
News & views related to the war in Palestine …
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-276
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2025-275
Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:
— November 29, 2025
Trump Pardons Drug Smuggler, Threatens Venezuela
Trump’s South America policy is getting more ridiculous by the day. Yesterday he announced a pardon for the former president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernández, who is serving a 45-year sentence for partnering with drug traffickers who had allegedly shipped 400 tons of cocaine to the United States. He also endorsed a right wing candidate Nasry “Tito” Asfura for Sunday’s election in Honduras. Asfura belongs to the same party as Hernández. This is unlikely (archived) to have the effect that Trump desires:
While pardoning a convicted drug smuggler on one day Trump uses the next one to threatening Venezuela for alleged drug smuggling for which there is no evidence. A week ago the Federal Aviation Administration has issued a Notice To Air Man (NOTAM) for Venezuela:
Venezuela responded by revoking operation rights for airlines which were following that advice. Today Trump made an explicit threat to all airplanes in Venezuelan airspace:
But is he going to do? Order the military to shoot down random passenger planes? Before that Trump had announced land operations in Venezuela:
The threat is empty. There is no real option for a military land operation in Venezuela. All Trump assertions about Venezuela, its alleged ‘terrorist gangs’ and drug smuggling are completely bogus. This is not at all about drugs but about stealing the huge oil reserve Venzuela has: Cont. reading: Trump Pardons Drug Smuggler, Threatens Venezuela November 28, 2025
Ukraine Rejects Trump’s Peace Plan – U.S. Reacts To Its Defiance
After rejecting a plan that would see Ukraine concede territory to Russia its leadership has come under new pressure. Trump’s 28-point Ukraine plan, leaked by former U.S. envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg, was an attempt to shut the war down – at least for now. The European dimwits, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Ukrainian ruler managed to sabotage it:
While the 28-point plan included several points Russia could not agree to (like a 600,000 strong Ukrainian army), it also included significant concession Ukraine would have to make. It could have been the base for further discussions with Russia. But Rubio allowed the Ukrainians to shrink the plan down to 19 points by taking out any Ukrainian concessions while adding erroneous demands (a 800,000 strong Ukrainian army) which are unacceptable to Russia. Trump is, as usual, behaving like a weathervane unable or unwilling to force his will on the opponents of his plan. The Ukrainian army is collapsing. Pokrovsk had been enveloped and occupied a week ago. But Zelenski and others kept claimed that the Ukrainian was winning that battle. As the army breaks down and its soldiers flee from their positions (in Russian) other cities, like Huleipole and Siversk, will soon fall too. There is no way for Ukraine to win the war. The longer the war takes the more will be lost for Ukraine. The utter delusion behind the rejection of Trump’s 28 point plan was demonstrated by the European High Representative for Foreign Affairs Katja Kallas:
Sure. And how are going to get there? After 19 rounds of EU sanction on Russia the 20th package will certainly take care of it? During the latest round of negotiations the acting president of Ukraine Vladimir Zelenski had named the chief of his office Andrei Yermak and the Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council Rustem Umerov as negotiators. Yermak admitted as much when he called up Simon Shuster at The Atlantic to put an end to the current round of negotiations:
Russia will ignore such nonsense and take by force whatever territory it thinks it needs. Further down Yermak explains to Shuster why he was tasked with negotiations:
Ukraine has now officially rejected the core element – land for peace – of Trump’s plan. The U.S. immediately responded to this open defiance. Today, by using its control over the Ukrainian National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and various ‘nationalist’ and fascist media in Ukraine, it hit back at Yermak:
The independent Ukrainian outlet Strana summarizes the political background of this action (machine translation):
I seriously doubt the second explanation though this is not a neither nor situation. NABU is unlikely to act on anything without having a green light from the U.S. ambassador in Kiev. Zelenski and Yermak will certainly hit back at NABU. A few month ago they had already tried to neuter it but had to retreat under pressure from Washington and Europe. They can use security services under their control -Ukraine’s FBI equivalent SBU – to arrest and indict NABU official. The race is on. Who will be the first to be arrested: Andrei Yermak or the chief investigators of NABU? November 27, 2025
Palestine Open Thread 2025-274
News & views related to the war in Palestine …
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-273
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2025-272
News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine … November 26, 2025
Navy Shows Why The U.S. Is Losing Its Relative Power
The defeat of the west is in part happening because its loss of the ability to sensibly analyze and manage things. A consequence is the relative loss of power. Here it is the U.S. Navy demonstrating the issue: Navy Cuts Constellation-Class Frigate Program Short as Shipbuilding Delays Mount – gCaptain
Over the last 20+ years the Navy ship building management has not delivered even one class of ships on time and within the projected price frame. Moreover none ever reached the desired and promised capabilities. Once there were to be 32 Zumwalt-class destroyers each with 16,000 tons of displacement. Only three were build and only two are active. The ships were supposed to carry new technologies which turned out to be too complicate and too expensive: Cont. reading: Navy Shows Why The U.S. Is Losing Its Relative Power November 25, 2025
Executive Order Provides For Bailout Of Overextended AI Companies
In December 2024 President Donald Trump named venture capitalist David O. Sacks as the “White House A.I. & Crypto Czar.”
AI-researcher Gary Markus is wondering how two recent tweets by Gary Sacks relate to each other:
The WSJ report Sacks mentions, archived here, is indeed gloomy: Cont. reading: Executive Order Provides For Bailout Of Overextended AI Companies November 24, 2025
The Current State Of The 28-Point Plan
My assessment of the Trump’s 28-Point Ukraine Plan was not correct:
Russia’s President has somewhat accepted the plan when he said that it could “serve as a foundation for a final peace settlement”. He complained however that no U.S. contact was willing to discuss the details with Russia:
The Europeans issued their own plan which is just a repeat of their old demand of a ceasefire without conceding any of Russia’s demand. They are obviously trying to prevent an agreement. But they have no place at the table. They are on the menu. Trump wants them to pay for HIS peace plan and, in the end, they will do so. The acting president of Ukraine Vladimir Zelenski knows that he can not outright reject Trump’s plan. He would be blamed for not wanting peace and U.S. support would be finished. He thus asks, prodded by the Europeans, for changes that Russia will surely reject. My understanding is that there will soon be another meeting (or phonecall) between Zelenski and Trump. If Trump accepts Zelenski’s changes to key points of the plan Russia will have to reject it even as a base for discussions. Trump will then be pressed to put more sanctions on Russia. The war will escalate and continue. If Trump rejects changes to key points in the plan then Zelenski will have to reject it. Trump will end U.S. intelligence and other support for Ukraine which will lead to a faster defeat of Ukraine and the end of the war. Russia, as Putin says, is fine with either decision. November 23, 2025
Palestine Open Thread 2025-271
News & views related to the war in Palestine …
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-270
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2025-269
Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:
— November 22, 2025
Kellogg Fired Over Leaking 28-Point Plan – Proposal Designed To Trap Putin
It seems that Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, got fired over leaking news of the 28-point ‘peace plan’. Let’s follow the traces. On Tuesday the 18th November someone ‘leaked’ to Axios reporter Barak Ravid who then wrote the first story of Trump’s new plan for Ukraine. Scoop: U.S. secretly drafting new plan to end Ukraine war
Shortly thereafter Steve Witkoff made a mistake on Twitter when he sent a response meant for a private direct message to the public side of his account. He soon deleted it but someone had already taken a screenshot. ![]() bigger Cont. reading: Kellogg Fired Over Leaking 28-Point Plan – Proposal Designed To Trap Putin November 21, 2025
Trump’s 28-Point Ukraine Plan
There seem to be several version or translation of Trump’s new ‘peace plan’ for Ukraine. I believe that the one below, originally published (archived) by the Financial Times, is the most accurate version. The plan as it is is dead in the water, stillborn or however you may want to characterize this collection of ill-defined, non-binding and ridiculous clauses. No one will ever accept it. But it includes a few U.S. concessions to Russia that will be taken and preserved for later negotiations. November 20, 2025
High Noon In Kiev
The ‘new’ Trump plan to end the war in Ukraine, mentioned here yesterday, is unlikely to come to fruition. Russia has said that it does not have any official knowledge of the plan or its content. But there are several reasons for it to reject it. The Telegraph claims that the plan does not acknowledge that the Donbas and Luhansk are part of Russia but only allows for Russia to ‘lease’ the territory:
There is also the role of NATO which the Trump administration’s plan does not mention:
Those European allies who reject the peace plan and are concerned about precedent should look up ‘Kosovo’ and how that came into being. The prospect of NATO membership of Ukraine was one of the main reasons for starting the war. Russia will not allow NATO, or any other military ‘security guarantee’ for Ukraine, along its western borders. Ukraine’s explicit rejection of entering NATO will have to be part of any acceptable peace agreement. Ukraine’s acting President is not willing to agree to the plan. He now sees the recent revealing of the corruption scandal involving his friend Mindich as part of an operation to press him to fire his chief of office Andrei Yermak and to accept Trump’s peace plan. He will argue that Russia is pulling the strings on each of these issues: November 19, 2025
Ukraine SitRep – Power Play In Kiev And Chaos At The Front
The situation in Ukraine is becoming even more complicate. The war on the frontline is going bad for Ukraine as is the war on infrastructure deep behind the contact line. A corruption scandal is used to neuter President Zelenski. New power structures are set to evolve to further the execution of the war. President Trump is attempting to impose another peace effort while Europe finds that it lacks the money to finance Ukraine and the war. There are at least seven cities which are falling or are destined to fall within the next few month. ![]() bigger The Ukrainian command had thrown in all its reserves to prevent the taking of Prokovsk and Kupiyansk. It was to no avail. All regular Ukrainian brigades lack infantry. The constant Russian drone attacks have also taken a large toll on the logistic elements of those units. General Syrski, the Ukrainian commander in chief, had set his bet on newly developed assault units to allow for offensive action while neglecting the general brigades which have to hold the lines. The weakened lines broke down when the Russian infiltrate them. Assault units were sent in and wasted on counterattacks that were supposed to stop further Russian breakthroughs but failed to have significant effects. Defense fortifications and buildings can no longer protect the soldiers. Each day Russia is using 200 or more glide bombs to demolish them. Drones and artillery strikes follow. Russian infantry sneaks in to mop up remaining resistance. It is a fairly slow process but it works for the Russians and is causing them a minimum of casualties. The war on infrastructure far behind the line of contact is also preceding at a high pace. Ukraine had rejected the ceasefire on infrastructure previously agreed to by President Trump and President Putin. It has continued attacks on Russian oil refineries and other energy facilities with drones and missiles. They have so far done too little damage to slow down the Russian economy. Russia has responded to those strikes by launching thousands of drones and missile against Ukrainian electricity and heating facilities causing up to 18 hours of blackout per day even in large Ukrainian cities. Another Russian target are railway depots where locomotives are maintained. Hundreds of them have been destroyed in such strikes. The lack of electricity and mass transport have all but stopped large scale production of industrial goods. The economy suffers. Tax income decreases. Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep – Power Play In Kiev And Chaos At The Front November 18, 2025
The Defeat Of The West And Europe’s Bleak Future
No post today, sorry, but two good talks to listen to:
November 17, 2025
Ukraine Is Buying Fighter Jets With Money It Does Not Have?
Over the next two years Ukraine plans to spend some €140 billion ($162b) it does not have to continue its war with Russia. There is serious doubt that the European Union, which has already shuffled €180 billion ($216b) to Ukraine, will be able to pay even a fraction of that. Despite Ukraine’s lack of money it acting president Vladimir Zelenski is announcing deals to procure expensive military aircraft at an unprecedented scale. In late October he went to Sweden to buy JAS 39 Gripen-E multi-role fighter jets build by Saab: Ukraine could get 150 advanced Swedish fighter jets under just-signed deal – CNN, Oct 23 2025
The planes ain’t cheap: |
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