Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 5, 2025
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-231

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

I’m going to keep repeating my fear here. Sure, Ukraine can never really win now – but Russia can lose. Too much of the ‘expert’ analysis of the war rests on ignoring the reality that Ukraine is entirely disposable but Russian lives aren’t.   Putin wisely keeps casualties low but Ukraine can sacrifice its entire population – and the EU will zealously back them up while pretending to care about their lives. A kill ratio of 5 or 3 to 1?  So what?  There’s millions more to sacrifice.
The world accepts and lives with open genocide now – and it’s no big deal.  This zeitgeist should be a warning that Russia is in danger from Ukraine’s eager suicide in fighting Russia at any cost. 
How does the war end?  Forget the daily loss of more towns and equipment, it doesn’t matter unless you can seriously imagine conquering the rest of Ukraine across, what? – another ten years or so?
The “collapse” hasn’t happened.  EU can supply small arms forever.   Can Russia maintain a war forever?   Please give me a detailed account of how this war can end.  Maybe with the total destruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure to the point of their starvation?

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 7 2025 13:14 utc | 201

In 2022 I predicted that if Russia can stand 5 years it has won, that is the West has lost. If it will take ten more years, so be it.

Posted by: Catilina | Oct 7 2025 14:23 utc | 202

Parts of this are according to Dima and his Military Channel, this is over the past week or so.
 
Russia has finally started its Shock and Awe attack on Ukraine. Every night (ok let’s call it 5 nights out of every 7), Russia sends hundreds of drones and some missiles to focus on Ukraine energy systems, ammo dumps, and factories that create military products.
 
Obviously, according to Ukrainian sources, Ukrainian anti-air defenses shoot down all but 2 of the drones in every target city. Those 2 drones cause fires all over the city, and heavily damage Ukrainian energy facilities.
 
Pro-Russian civilians in each city seem to be providing vital information about the locations and details of Ukrainian military industries, meetings of NATO Officials, Ukrainian troop concentrations, etc. Russia puts this information to good use.
 
The “SMO” is increasing in intensity. It is not quite an All Out War. But it is close. My preference is that the current intensity will not be increased. Making Russia Great Again requires Russia improving its economy, increasing its domestic production, and improving the lives of its citizens. Hopefully for Russia, the SMO will be mostly an annoyance for Russia as it continues its move toward Greatness.
 
For what it’s worth? My desired end is for Russia, Poland, Hungary, and Romania to split up Ukraine. That way the Belt and Row Initiative can allow for supplies and aid and eventually trade to rebuild what is now called Ukraine.

Posted by: Woke American | Oct 7 2025 15:11 utc | 203

A closing-down sale?
 

THE NATO LUNCHBOX ECONOMY
 
When the front collapses, the real battlefield becomes the resale app.
 
Latvian, Estonian, and American combat MREs, once part of NATO’s multi-billion-dollar lifeline to Kiev — are now being flipped on Ukrainian online marketplaces.
 
Latvian ration kits
 
Estonian pea porridge with pork
 
U.S. Maple Sausage MREs
 
Thermal drink pouches and heating kits
 
All repackaged… and quietly sold online.
 
Ukraine isn’t a “war for freedom.” It’s a liquidation of illusions, and the NATO lunchbox has become the last commodity still worth flipping.
 
Meanwhile, the empire wants you to believe this is the front line of democracy. But democracy isn’t served in reheated goulash from the Baltic states. It’s falling apart, one ration pack at a time.
 
This isn’t war. It’s a black market buffet. And NATO’s appetite for empire just got priced at 399 hryvnia per box.
 

Source: Telegram “TheIslanderNews”

 
https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/10/07/1753089.html

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 7 2025 17:06 utc | 204

Lengthy piece discussing Ukrainian troop numbers, mobilisations and losses since 2014 here: https://www.ir-press.ru/2025/10/02/ukraine-2014-2025-mobilizations-and-losses/
 
A snip:

Three partial mobilizations were declared in 2014, followed by three more in 2015. Ukraine called up a total of 210,000 men, a number almost equal to that of its regular army. While about 70,000 volunteers, including many Banderites, came forward, the others were conscripts and reservists. The mobilization was immediately plagued by population resistance. Depending on the region, up to 60% of those called up were draft dodgers. Men fled abroad, notably to Poland, Belarus, or Russia, others to Western Europe. Recruitment difficulties forced Ukraine to legislate severe prison sentences (2-5 years in prison). In the National Guard, volunteers not being numerous enough, conscripts also came to fill its ranks. The initial enthusiasm for enlistment at the start of the war soon began to erode. The series of military defeats (2014-2015), notably in the Battle of the Borders, Ilovaïsk, or Debaltseve, the losses, an unprepared army ravaged by corruption, war crimes, and indiscipline, did not encourage men from the rear to come and get bogged down in such a quagmire. On July 24, 2014, in the context of the Battle of the Borders about to be lost (July-September), a new wave of mobilization was decreed. It provoked the anger of the populations, political resistances quickly suppressed, but the war machine was in motion. In total, in 2014, 105,000 men were mobilized. In early 2015, 40,000 men replaced the volunteers from the previous year, who had signed up for one year. The most fanatical or the “pot-scrapers” agreed to sign up again. Ukraine then proceeded with amalgamation, namely the integration of irregular units into the army (with a few exceptions). Attractive contracts were offered to the men; those who refused could return home, though sometimes not without being subjected to harassment. To defend themselves, soldiers soon obtained a ministry for veterans, a status, and social benefits.

 
 

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 7 2025 17:19 utc | 205

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 7 2025 17:06 utc | 204


The amount of rations and weapons sold on the black market is another indicator of war progress. The more stuff hits the black market, the more sure it is war is being lost. Why? Because desperate people will cash in whatever they can from the war, with lower and lower inhibitions. Everyone is already thinking their future ‘after’ the war. The same with nazis stashing their gold and other valuables toward the end of the war.
 
And western stuff has been hitting black market for years but it just keeps increasing. 

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 7 2025 17:41 utc | 206

More than likely that Netanyahu has asked Putin – not to get involved when Israel and the US attack Iran, – and  to turn a blind eye to the US invasion of Venezuela, and in return Putin can continue to crush the Neo-Nazi dictatorship in Ukraine without much Israel/US interference, and Netanyahu/Trump will reel his EU puppets on supplying the Ukrainian regime.
 
With regards to the likes of Putin, Trump, Netanyahu etc – a Groucho Marx quote springs to mind.
“Here are my principles, and if you don’t like them – well I have others.”
 
“Russian President Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu had a phone call during which they discussed ‘the situation in the Middle East’ This marks the third phone call between the two since late July”

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 7 2025 18:32 utc | 207

@ unimperator | Oct 7 2025 17:41 utc | 206
 
In addition to your points, ration packs could well be being sold as “surplus” simply because there aren’t enough troops left in Ukraine to eat them all…
 
And just a side curiosity, the two named examples (pea/lentil and pork broth, and maple sausages) aren’t going to be kosher 

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 7 2025 19:48 utc | 208

In a fictionalised account set a little over two years from now, the city of Narva in Estonia wakes to explosions.
It’s being attacked by Russia – and is conquered in a matter of hours.
The same night, another city on the island of Hiiumaa is also taken – giving Russia the ability to impose a naval blockade of the Baltic states.
This is the basis of a future imagined by political scientist Dr Carlo Masala in his book ‘If Russia Wins: A scenario‘.
It’s predicated on what could happen, if the conflict in Ukraine is settled on terms advantageous to Russia. How far is NATO really prepared to go to defend one of its member states?
How sound is the commitment of the US, in particular? 
Carlo Masala is Professor for International Politics at the Bundeswehr University Munich.
He joins Kathryn to talk about his scenario and its relation to recent developments in the Ukraine conflict and within Europe.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2019007362/carlo-masala-what-happens-if-russia-succeeds-in-ukraine
It would seem the main fall back position is to get the Western MIC really cranking and profit from what will ensue.
I the interview the German author uses the phrase “a certain procedure”.  Thanks to MOA I know that “procedure”  has a special resonance for Germans  as in “Same procedure as every year” ..

Posted by: tucenz | Oct 7 2025 20:17 utc | 209

re: tucenz | Oct 7 2025 20:17 utc | 209
2nd last line should start with In.
I wish there was still a preview function for comments.

Posted by: tucenz | Oct 7 2025 20:23 utc | 210

There are times when I have respect for some of the Ukrainian parliamentarians who bravely call things out:

“Where are the billions spent on shelters, we are sitting without electricity!” – hysteria in the Parliament due to constant raids
 
Ukrainian corrupt officials spent billions building shelters that didn’t protect the infrastructure from Russian attacks.
 
This was stated at a meeting of the Verkhovna Rada by a former accomplice of the dictator Dmitry Razumkov, the correspondent of PolitNavigator reports.
 

“Every day the enemy destroys our critical infrastructure. And everyone was well aware that a terrorist state would carry out terrorist acts, destroying our energy sector.
 
But I have a question for the same ignoramuses and accomplices of terrorists who spent billions of hryvnias on shelters of critical infrastructure: gas, electric substations.
 
I remember these statements of Nayyem and Kubrakov when they wrote that the Tripoli thermal power plant is one hundred percent protected. Less than a month passes – and the same mouths are telling that the Trypillya TPP has been destroyed by one hundred percent, ” Razumkov was angry.
 

“Please tell me, who will be responsible for this? Who will be responsible for Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Poltava, which are being carried by Russian missiles and drones today?
 
Where are the shelters? Where are the billions of hryvnias that were spent on this? Where is the responsibility of people who, most likely, just stole it and put it in their pockets, and then quietly went into the woods?
 
Will they bear personal responsibility for the fact that there is no electricity in parts of Ukraine , that there may be large interruptions in gas supply? ” -the ukro-MP retorted.

https://politnavigator.news/gde-potrachennye-na-ukrytiya-milliardy-sidim-bez-sveta-v-rade-isterika-iz-za-postoyannykh-naljotov.html (via translation add-on.)
 
With the West relying on smoke and mirrors for its Ukraine policy it probably helps to have plenty of smoke from sub-station fires…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 7 2025 20:32 utc | 211

Hmm 
Seems to be resurfacing
CIA director John Ratcliffe declassified a stunning memo on Wednesday after a review of historical records from Biden’s tenure as vice-president.
The ‘top secret’ document, filled with redactions, also highlights how Ukrainian government officials were uneasy about Biden’s visits to the country during the Obama administration.
The dossier details how officials in Kyiv privately raged at Biden for coming to their nation to lecture them about corruption while his son Hunter was sitting on the board of a Ukrainian gas company.
The officials believed that the position held by the VP’s son showed that there was ‘a double-standard’ in the US government regarding corruption in politics.
Included in Ratcliffe’s release is a portion of an email sent which states that then-vice president Biden ‘would strongly prefer the report not/not be disseminated’.
The email was signed ‘PDB Briefer.’ PDB stands for the presidential daily briefing, a daily intelligence report regularly compiled by US intelligence agencies.
The memo states: ‘As of mid-December 2015, [redacted] officials within the administration of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko expressed bewilderment and disappointment at the 7-8 December 2015 visit of the Vice President of the United States to KyivUkraine.—-

Biden’s request, the file was never circulated outside of the CIA.
The House Oversight Committee has concluded that Biden’s family and associates have taken more than $20 million from foreign entities since the Democrat became vice-president in 2008
 
Full article at UK Daily Mail
 
 

Posted by: Jo | Oct 7 2025 21:52 utc | 212

An Ukro-Nazi’s Grand-daughter: Carney’s Special Envoy For Ukraine Hard at Work
 
https://x.com/cafreeland/status/1974186158134616537
 
“Great to meet with Yannis Stournoras, Governor of the Bank of Greece. We talked about the importance of supporting Ukraine, global trade and Canada’s special partnership with Europe.”
 
One of Freeland’s tasks is working on securing/leveraging ‘frozen’ Russian assets, an idea she developed while Canadian foreign minister, for her pals in the kleptocracy of NATO-Nazi Ukraine.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Oct 7 2025 22:29 utc | 213

Nice to see you join the world of reality we all actually live in – rather than the land of delusion and illusion often talked about on here.
Posted by: Julian | Oct 7 2025 6:54 utc | 195
 
If you had waited You wouldn’t be so happy
Listening to Putin in detail I think I know what he was trying to say , but let us start with the opposition
“Ukraine’s military now totals 880,000 soldiers, facing 600,000 Russian troops, Zelensky says

January 15, 2025 7:11 pm”
 

(Removed link in case reason for not posting)

 
Now let’s see if this pastes well, it’s a 2025 reconstruction with next months as last (october seems in line to mirror september)
 
 
Basically I took the numbers in the video and made them work for what was known in 2025 (MoD numbers or close)
 
(Removed link in case reason for not posting)
 
Then I took the AFU tabl,  the grunts vs marines model and
 

  1. Applied the exact KIA and Maimed I had previously used
  2. Ignored difference between hospital and returning, my killed and maimed ratios included those
  3. Applied the same engagement ratio that I used in the model, 1 RF soldier hit for each 3 AFU
  4. Ignored minimal desertion

 
Lo and behold, knowing there is delay I just confirmed january and february 2025  and the values are very close to the “Confirmed Russian losses in Ukraine per week” that you can check in the Merdiazona site (changed name in case it blocked posting). 7 months should be enough for them to find news of a deceased (and january and february were close enough to model for any additional month changing significantly the values).
Before it becomes a probable (formatting)  mess, let’s say Z will be complaining january 2025 that it’s

  • 920.000 RF soldiers against
  • 540.000 AFU soldiers

 
Why? because RF will increase by 320.000 bayonets their army, and AFU will see a net total reduction of 340.000 soldiers during 2025
First section is an attempt to reconstruct from Putin+MoD numbers the AFU losses, second section are the modeled RF numbers (If anyone with access to real information can check, at least it would be fun, not that I’d count on any acknowledgement)
 
(Removed table in case it was blocking post)
 
 
In case it doesn’t work, maybe someone can use this in a CSV
OP Loss,-14 477,43,-14 085,-6 208,-7 029,-7 392,-5 403,-7 123,-11 434,-9 729,-9 730,-9 730,totalFull LOSS,-39 677,-17 508,-35 235,-25 108,-25 479,-25 842,-22 953,-25 123,-31 549,-29 844,-29 846,-29 847,-338 008,,,,,,,,,,,,,HOSPITAL GOOD ,22 715,20 328,14 157,17 061,15 246,14 883,14 883,14 157,14 520,16 226,16 226,16 227,RECRUIT (20k less fail),18 500,18 500,18 500,18 500,18 500,18 500,18 500,18 500,18 500,18 500,18 500,18 500,TOTAL POS ,41 215,38 828,32 657,35 561,33 746,33 383,33 383,32 657,33 020,34 726,34 726,34 727,,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,,56 000,39 000,47 000,42 000,41 000,41 000,39 000,40 000,44 700,44 701,44 702,44 703,KIA,12 600,8 775,10 575,9 450,9 225,9 225,8 775,9 000,10 058,10 058,10 058,10 058,MAIMED,12 600,8 775,10 575,9 450,9 225,9 225,8 775,9 000,10 058,10 058,10 058,10 058,HOSPITAL BAD,10 164,7 079,8 531,7 623,7 442,7 442,7 079,7 260,8 113,8 113,8 113,8 114,Other deserters,25 200,17 550,21 150,18 900,18 450,18 450,17 550,18 000,20 115,20 115,20 116,20 116,HOSPITAL GOOD ,20 328,14 157,17 061,15 246,14 883,14 883,14 157,14 520,16 226,16 226,16 227,16 227,TOTAL NEGATIVE,-80 892,-56 336,-67 892,-60 669,-59 225,-59 225,-56 336,-57 780,-64 569,-64 571,-64 572,-64 573,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,OP win,26 590,30 869,23 992,27 640,26 735,26 488,27 154,26 326,25 007,26 171,26 172,26 173,totalFull win,26 590,30 869,23 992,27 640,26 735,26 488,27 154,26 326,25 007,26 171,26 172,26 173,319 318,,,,,,,,,,,,,HOSPITAL GOOD ,15 256,13 869,9 659,11 640,10 402,10 154,10 154,9 659,9 907,11 071,11 071,11 071,RECRUIT (35k less fail),30 000,30 000,30 000,30 000,30 000,30 000,30 000,30 000,30 000,30 001,30 002,30 003,TOTAL POS ,45 256,43 869,39 659,41 640,40 402,40 154,40 154,39 659,39 907,41 072,41 073,41 074,,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,,18 667,13 000,15 667,14 000,13 667,13 667,13 000,13 333,14 900,14 900,14 901,14 901,KIA,2 399,1 670,2 013,1 799,1 756,1 756,1 670,1 713,1 915,1 915,1 915,1 915,MAIMED,2 399,1 670,2 013,1 799,1 756,1 756,1 670,1 713,1 915,1 915,1 915,1 915,HOSPITAL BAD,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,Other deserters,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,HOSPITAL GOOD ,13 869,9 659,11 640,10 402,10 154,10 154,9 659,9 907,11 071,11 071,11 071,11 071,TOTAL NEGATIVE,-18 667,-13 000,-15 667,-14 000,-13 667,-13 667,-13 000,-13 333,-14 900,-14 900,-14 901,-14 901,
 
 

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 7 2025 23:37 utc | 214

Trying shorter, just the army size variation through 2025
AFU 2025
 

 
total

Full LOSS
-338 008

 
P.S. B if there are a lot in your moderation, sorry, but tables are often critical for what I want to show

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 8 2025 0:03 utc | 215

That massive listing of numbers isn’t really very effective, Newbie.  

Posted by: ThouShalt | Oct 8 2025 4:05 utc | 216

Did Mark Carney and Donald Trump’s Oval Office discussion today include Canada arming Ukraine with Tomahawk Missiles?
 
Ukraine, Tariffs to Dominate White House Meeting with Canadian PM Today
 
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/61557
 
“Mark Carney arrives in Washington under dual pressure to resolve steel and aluminum tariffs while Ottawa weighs crucial Tomahawk missile commitment to Kyiv…By leveraging the economic crisis to compel a major Canadian arms commitment – specifically to high-end long-range naval strike missiles – the US is effectively ensuring that its northern ally contribute the exact strategic capability most needed by Ukraine…The cost of trade peace may be measured in the price of advanced missiles…”
 
Fortunately, by all accounts production and delivery of  any Tomahawk missiles for this purpose is unlikely before 2028, hopefully too late for Ukraine,  the RCN and Carney’s  pro-Banderite warparty, to so recklessly and dangerously put clueless Canadians even more surely into the cross-hairs of a Russian retaliatory attack should they  foolishly decide to proceed with such a scheme.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Oct 8 2025 5:44 utc | 217

Posted by: ThouShalt | Oct 8 2025 4:05 utc | 216
“That massive listing of numbers isn’t really very effective, Newbie. ”
For a clear and thorough discussion of casualty/fatality statistics, see Jacques Baud: L’art de la guerre russe, Max Milo, 2024, chapter 7.3. For a recent update (as of  5 June 2025), check out the presentation “LA VÉRITÉ SUR LES PERTES HUMAINES EN UKRAINE” on the YouTube channel “TheSwissBox”. The headline figure is a fatality ratio of about 1 to 7 in favour of Russia. FWIW I believe that this is credible.
 

Posted by: Jan Sobieski | Oct 8 2025 8:29 utc | 218

That massive listing of numbers isn’t really very effective, Newbie.  
Posted by: ThouShalt | Oct 8 2025 4:05 utc | 216
copy paste to notepad, save as .csv and open in excel
if you use comma for decimal , replace comma with ;
tables are not posting well (no column creation)
 
 

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 8 2025 11:52 utc | 219

@ Newbie | Oct 8 2025 11:52 utc | 219
 
I think it needs the newlines to be defined. I tried saving as a .csv and importing into LibreOffice Calc (no Microsoft here), and it just formed one humongously long row, no columns would form, no matter what I tried out. 

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2025 17:36 utc | 220

Putin missed an opportunity. They were handed an olive branch and tried to take the whole tree. Now we are back to square one. In the meantime refineries will keep burning and young men will keep being killed and maimed in the name of Russia’s “interests”.

Posted by: Effektiewe Effie | Oct 8 2025 18:08 utc | 221

@ Effektiewe Effie | Oct 8 2025 18:08 utc | 221
 
Don’t forget to put your money where your mouth is…

On October 7, the Ministry of Finance placed domestic government loan bonds for UAH 14.9 billion and USD 203 million.
 
This is stated in the notification of the Ministry of Finance, the Ukrainian News Agency reports.
 
Securities with a maturity of 1.1 years for UAH 5.3 billion at 16.35% per annum were placed, 1.8 years – for UAH 5.2 billion at 17.10% per annum and 3 years – for UAH 4.4 billion at 17.8% per annum.
 
 
Dollar-denominated securities have a maturity of 1.5 years and a yield of 4.09% per annum.
 
In September 2025, the Ministry of Finance attracted UAH 52.5 billion to the budget in the equivalent of: UAH 33.9 billion – hryvnia securities (16.97% per annum), USD 357 million – foreign currency government bonds (4.09% per annum), EUR 81 million – Eurobonds (3.19% per annum).
 
The Ministry of Finance holds auctions every Tuesday.

Some nice juicy interest rates there, if you’re confident of Ukraine winning…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2025 18:28 utc | 222

Concentrating on the new posting format, so overlooked the link: https://ukranews.com/en/news/1109931-finance-ministry-places-government-bonds-for-uah-14-9-billion-and-usd-203-million

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2025 18:32 utc | 223

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2025 18:28 utc | 222

They are desperate to join the Euro because the Hryvnia is crashing.
Newsflash: Ukraine will never join the Euro zone.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 8 2025 18:33 utc | 224

Republicofscotland | Oct 7 2025 18:32 utc | 207
 
Putin talks to everybody. The CIA proxies in Chechnya. There were a number of bad killings. The perpetrators were hunted down and killed. There was one in Turkey and one in Germany. There will be many more we don’t know about. They also will have been killed. A russian agent was jailed in Turkey and another in Germany – that is why we know about those two. When he got them released, Putin was personally there to greet them when they stepped off the plane. Best not to fuck with Putin.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 8 2025 18:36 utc | 225

Newsflash: Ukraine will never join the Euro zone.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 8 2025 18:33 utc | 224
 
Correct, not a snowball in hell’s chance of that happening.
 
Got to admire their chutzpah though, issuing 3-year bonds, maturing  October 2028! Wonder what the price of gold will be by then? Will Ukraine even exist ?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 8 2025 18:50 utc | 226

Why is Putin asking for negotiations with the USA for  the second time?

Posted by: Ezop | Oct 16 2025 19:06 utc | 227