News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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October 5, 2025
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-231
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“Nuke them all”, they say. Yeah, wonderful.
Posted by: ThouShalt | Oct 6 2025 1:57 utc | 87
US, from another continent, did not nuke Russia and still managed to make Putin do unilateral ceasefires right on the phone, then made him come to US to make whatever deal Trumpy asked for. Now he even promised to unilaterally extend Start after it ends, thereby greatly increasing the chances to get himself and Europe nuked. Now that is “wonderful” indeed.
The “Putin must not do anything, Putin plays chess” story comes only from Natostani citizens who piss their pants in fear and pretend to be experts who understand everything. Looks like Putin had no strategy at all as he keeps saying that everyone tricked him. Probably because his advisors are a medieval artillery duelist, a tank biathlonist with no military training and a twitter influencer. The result was that Nato flourished like never before and now they are right at the borders with their nukes. Btw, how’s the US biolabs story these days? Did the chess player manage to remove them from all bordering countries or at least from Ukr, and forgot to tell or he just forgot about it as soon as Kirillov exploded?
Posted by: rk | Oct 6 2025 8:29 utc | 102
rk | Oct 6 2025 8:29 utc | 102
Take a look at where US empire is at. Take a look at where Russia is at. Putin has successfully separated US from Europe.
The European bankers or wankers or whatever they are looked crazy enough to charge the bear over the last few weeks, but Russia tested a new weapon in a bright blue flash and some semblance of sanity seems to have hit the Europeans.
Dnipro appears to be Russia’s weapons test ground.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 6 2025 9:00 utc | 103
More revelations from Merkel:
Merkel blames Poland and the Baltic states for the conflict in Ukraine (EADaily, October 6, 2025 — in Russian)
Poland and the Baltic republics thwarted attempts to find constructive dialogue with Russia in 2021 and provoked the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated this in an interview with the Hungarian publication Partizán.
According to her, the attempt at a settlement “was not supported by some countries.”
“It was mainly the Baltic states that opposed my initiative,” she said.
Merkel also explained that in 2021, she proposed a new format for dialogue between the European Union and Russian President Vladimir Putin, but Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland actively opposed the idea due to concerns that the EU would be unable to develop a common policy toward Russia.
“In any case, it did not come to fruition. Then I left my post, and then (the special military operation — EADaily) began,” the former chancellor said.
…
Posted by: S | Oct 6 2025 9:32 utc | 104
(Partizán is an influential Hungarian opposition YouTube channel. Here’s the video of Merkel’s interview.)
Posted by: S | Oct 6 2025 9:40 utc | 105
She can deflect all she likes.
The Frau was instrumental in the conflict going hot.
“In any case, it did not come to fruition. Then I left my post, and then (the special military operation — EADaily) began,” the former chancellor said.…
Posted by: S | Oct 6 2025 9:32 utc |
Posted by: jpc | Oct 6 2025 9:50 utc | 106
Posted by: ThouShalt | Oct 6 2025 5:11 utc | 94
Sounds like it was quite fun!
Posted by: jopalolive | Oct 6 2025 9:57 utc | 107
The sanctions were used to advantage. MRGA (Make Russia great again). Onshoring production, self suficiency.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 6 2025 8:29 utc | 101
Good observation. China helped.
Posted by: jopalolive | Oct 6 2025 10:00 utc | 108
Many of us were led to believe that Trump’s post of Sept. 23rd (where he states that Ukraine is in a position to reconquer all its lost territories if only helped sufficiently supported by Europe) was not to be taken seriously. Trump was just being sarcastic or ironic, they say, with the intention to publicly expose the bad advice he received from Gen. Kellog. Trump, so they say, does not himself believe in the contents of his post.
Others, like myself or like RT news, have taken the post at face value. Would America’s supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles make any sense if Ukraine was to lose this war? They are currently working hard on Trump to get his approval for the Tomahawk deliveries, which of course implies that he must be kept believing that Ukraine could win.
The Tomahawk cruise missile has been around for decades, at least since the days of the once German peace movement (that ceased to exist when the Greens switched sides). It can travel 1500 kilometers or more, which is enough to reach Moscow and St. Petersburg when fired from Ukrainian soil. It could be used to stage a real threat to Putin’s life when fired into the Kremlin, unlike the drones that have been used so far.
Worse even, the Tomahawks are nuclear capable, and there is no way for the Russian air defense of telling if an approaching Tomahawk carries a nuclear warhead.
Posted by: grunzt | Oct 6 2025 10:07 utc | 109
Worse even, the Tomahawks are nuclear capable, and there is no way for the Russian air defense of telling if an approaching Tomahawk carries a nuclear warhead.
Posted by: grunzt | Oct 6 2025 10:07 utc | 109
Exactly.
Posted by: S | Oct 6 2025 10:16 utc | 110
🚨MONDAY’S GOING UNDERGROUND:The Trump Administration’s plan to retain US🇺🇸 economic hegemony, as unipolarity increasingly crumbles to multipolarity.We’re joined by @RealJimRickards who will discuss the plan, as well as the continuing disastrous, lost proxy war againsr Russia
— Afshin Rattansi (@afshinrattansi
USA will never pay off its debts or improve the deficit, de dollarisation cost EU must bear, USA in ignorance -denial re Ukraine losing Russia winning
Oct 5, 2025
Posted by: Jo | Oct 6 2025 10:20 utc | 111
Posted by: English Outsider | Oct 5 2025 17:10 utc | 29
Understood. Apologies on my part as well. I very much respect your opinions and read your comments carefully.
In a sense it is a ‘formidable’ enterprise, like the Rio Carnival, quite formidable too 😀
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Oct 6 2025 10:44 utc | 112
Posted by: Urban Fox | Oct 5 2025 17:31 utc | 30
Yes. The West (including Japan and SK) are in worse shape than Russia wrt demographics.
Russia was going up steadily in fertility rate (FR) from 2000 to 2014, reaching as high as 1.8 (births per woman’s lifetime) in 2014.
Then the West started to push against that and succeeded. Russian FR dropped to 1.4 in 2023 (a matter of confidence of married couples).
Putin and Russian elites know this. They know they are fighting a West that very much fear Russia’s demographic and economic development.
From the POW of the West, the war has the purpose of depressing Russia’s growth by burning thru useless ukrop lives.
So Putin and Russian elites respond by waging a war with minimal casualties on their part, so that the balance between people won (because of conquest) versus people lost (because of war) is positive.
That would be the total defeat of the Western project in the Ukraines.
That Russia would end up bigger and with a higher growth rate after the war’s conclusion.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Oct 6 2025 11:04 utc | 113
Posted by: rk | Oct 6 2025 8:29 utc | 102
The Globalists wanted Russia to overextend itself while simultaneously the ROTW complied with sanctions. That combination would have likely succeeded.
Neither happened. Russia continues to operate within a tight logistics pattern, and conducts the air war within it’s production capacity while holding sufficient reserves (air force) for a NATO sneak attack. Oreshnik is an example, they have used one! while building up a supply of dozens? even building up Belarus as a launch country. One would infer other types of reserves.
Russia will win the land war, barring new wunderweapons (WW). Anything openly made before 2010 would not qualify for that moniker. Starlink is a type of WW as it has allowed UKrain to fight above it’s abilities with arguably better secure high bandwidth comms and ISR. It has lengthened the war and raised the cost for Russia. It is of need rising to the challenge. It lost Syria after saving it. It doesn’t want to lose it’s own head, so to speak.
To the Starlink Hater/Deniers (either because of Musk or US connection) just look at the fact that Russia is planning on launching it’s own (limited) version of Starlink. Perhaps they have seen it’s value.
The US will be holding other WW back for a China confrontation, so unlikely to leash it in UKrain. Which is good for Russia.
UKrain morale and logistics are damaged, at some point they collapse. A country living in the cold with limited electricity focused on staying warm and getting something to eat has less time and effort to fight a fight.
Put another way, WeebUnion has a map of the UKrain defensive trenches/positions in yellow. You can see how much of that has been captured, the rate of loss and what is left. 5 medium cauldrons, 4 likely to collapse around the end of the year, with the potential to form 3 large cauldrons next year.
Posted by: jopalolive | Oct 6 2025 11:05 utc | 114
Posted by: jopalolive | Oct 6 2025 11:05 utc | 114
WeebUnion’s map with ukrop fortifications in yellow is indeed extremely informative.
When looking at it, one wonders, what will ukrop political and business elites do when all those yellow lines are behind the loc?
My guess that’d be the time when they call it a day and run to their chosen refuges and start spending bigly in security.
But they will never spend enough. Security is like love: one never has enough.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Oct 6 2025 11:19 utc | 115
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Oct 6 2025 11:04 utc | 113
Another way of looking at the war, yet an important aspect that has, so far, escaped my attention. I recall Russia has always had a birth rate of less than 2. And I wonder why this is the case in such a huge country full of resources.
Posted by: grunzt | Oct 6 2025 11:20 utc | 116
@ grunzt | Oct 6 2025 11:20 utc | 116
Just my suspicion, but: it’s the lasting effect of the Bolshevik liberation of women. Stalin’s policy was necessarily two-faced: He needed women in the workforce (female physicians, for instance) as part of the need for rapid industrialization, and working women tend to bear fewer children; on the other hand he attempted to promote a high birthrate by criminalizing abortion and homosexual acts (both decriminalized under Lenin) and handing out medals and subsidies to women who bore especially large families. This latte was successful only in part — and women are still in the workforce.
Posted by: malenkov | Oct 6 2025 11:42 utc | 117
Regarding Tomahawk cruise missiles, all the US land-based versions of the Tomahawk — such as the BGM-109G Gryphon ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM) — were destroyed under the terms of the (now defunct) INF Treaty.
Currently, only US planes, ships, and subs can launch existing versions of Tomahawks. The US cannot “supply Ukraine with Tomahawks”, as Ukraine has no means to deliver them. In other words, only the US military can fire Tomahawks into Russia. They would, of course, also be using US intel for targeting coordinates.
Thus, any attack on Russia using US Tomahawks would entirely be carried out by the US military and would mean the US would be at war with Russia.
Only B52-H strategic nuclear bombers carry nuclear-capable Tomahawks. AGM-86 Air-Launched Cruise Missiles (ALCMs) carried by B52s are armed with the variable yield W80 warhead (with the option of 5 or 150 kiloton yield). The Navy uses variants like the Block IV and Block V Tomahawk, which typically carry a 1,000-pound class conventional high-explosive unitary warhead (not capable of being armed with a nuclear warhead).
Unless Russia was confident that it knew or could view the location of every US B52-H bomber, it would have to assume that any Tomahawk entering Russian air space was carrying a nuclear warhead.
I don’t understand why the current debate does not underline the absence of US ground-launched cruise missiles from the US arsenal. Like most of the weapon systems that the US is saying it will supply to NATO, the ground-launched cruise missiles do not presently exist. Thus, the discussion is being misdirected.
I think the bigger immediate danger is that this nod towards delivering Tomahawks will be used to green-light the use of German Taurus cruise missiles, which probably have already been delivered to Ukraine.
Posted by: Perimetr | Oct 6 2025 11:46 utc | 118
Posted by: grunzt | Oct 6 2025 11:20 utc | 116
I recall Russia has always had a birth rate of less than 2.
Russia had FR > 2 for several decades after WWII. FR started to drop below 2 with the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Most recent data suggest that Russian FR is again turning up.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Oct 6 2025 11:59 utc | 119
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Oct 6 2025 11:19 utc | 115
Ukraine already built the west-east running defensive line with a lot of concrete to protect Zaporozhye. However, at the same time Russians are besieging and isolating Pokrovsk, they already flanked this expensive defense line from the side (east) and even now, from the rear.
This line is already flanked. There won’t be another coherent Ukrainian defensive line on the left bank of the Dniepr. There are simply no reserves to occupy/man them. I guess they could put something together in front of Dnepropetrovsk as the next proper line of defense, but by the time RUAF are at Dnepropetrovsk, they will have taken Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk, Gulyapole, Zaporozhye in isolation against river if not taken, all Russian forces will be able to concentrate most of their fire power on the front of Dnepropetrovsk at that point.
So the next line will crumble under concentrated fire regardless.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 6 2025 12:02 utc | 120
billy @93: “wouldnt it be ironic if all the new young recruits were of russian speaking population.”
And then they turn their weapons on their Nazi officers and blocking battalions and slaughter what’s left of the bandera scum! Wouldn’t that be ironic?
Just because they live in what was once called “the Ukraine” doesn’t mean they are completely stupid. Mostly stupid maybe, but not completely, so you might want to hope there are lots of rabid uke-speaking Nazis in their ranks.
Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 6 2025 12:04 utc | 121
Posted by: Perimetr | Oct 6 2025 11:46 utc | 118
Regarding Tomahawk cruise missiles, all the US land-based versions of the Tomahawk — such as the BGM-109G Gryphon ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM) — were destroyed under the terms of the (now defunct) INF Treaty…
Has there ever been non-US land-based versions that could make there way to Ukraine and how quickly can such versions and launchers be released now that the treaty is defunct?
… The US cannot “supply Ukraine with Tomahawks”, as Ukraine has no means to deliver them. In other words, only the US military can fire Tomahawks into Russia. They would, of course, also be using US intel for targeting coordinates. Thus, any attack on Russia using US Tomahawks would entirely be carried out by the US military and would mean the US would be at war with Russia…
This brings up an important question. Who is the arbiter here you are thinking of whose formal acknowledgement of US involvement could somehow change the course of the conflict? And what change in course are we talking about – Russian attacks on Western countries?
– Russia and allies? I think we agree that they have come to this conclusion a long time ago.
– The UN? Could there be some kind of international formal recognition of Western involvement? I can’t see that happening.
– World opinion? Would it have any incidence on the course of the war?
– The Western public? In my opinion, mitigating any opposition to the war is crucial for the Western belligerents. This explains why so much energy is expended in shaping the narrative.
What this comes down to is that if the use of tomahawks is percieved by the Western public as just another natural step in fending off Russian aggression, then there isn’t anything preventing its use.
Posted by: robin | Oct 6 2025 12:36 utc | 122
Sanctions have done for Russia what Trump is trying to do for the US. Of course, it is difficult to “sanction” oneself. That takes self-discipline and Americans have none (that’s why they are fat and cannot do the difficult stuff in their educations).
Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 6 2025 12:38 utc | 123
‼️BREAKING‼️🇷🇺 🇷🇺 Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation:🇷🇺👉🇬🇧🏴☠️🇪🇺🇺🇦 The Press Bureau of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) reportsAccording to the British plan, a group of Russian traitors fighting on the side of the Ukrainian army is to carry out an attack on one of the Ukrainian Navy’s vessels or on a civilian ship belonging to a foreign state in one of the European ports. As of now, the group’s members have already arrived in the UK for sabotage training.Once the group is “exposed”, British authorities will claim that it was acting under instructions from Moscow. London hopes that Europe’s Russophobia-obsessed establishment will unquestioningly accept the fabricated story of “malicious Kremlin agents” as justification for further arms deliveries to Ukraine and militarization of the so-called “united Europe” under the pretext of countering “Russian aggression”.It is noteworthy that the Ukrainian militants are to be supplied with underwater equipment of Chinese manufacture. The equipment “seized” during the “investigation” is intended to be presented as “hard proof” of China’s alleged support for Russia’s so-called armed aggression against Ukraine.
Posted by: Jo | Oct 6 2025 13:45 utc | 124
🇩🇪🏴☠️🇺🇦 Germans are saving on themselves to pay for someone else’s warThe government announced the largest cut in social spending since Schröder’s reforms — up to 100 billion euros by 2030.Main cuts:Bürgergeld (unemployment benefits) — –5 billion € per yearHousing and utility compensations — –3 billion € per yearSocial subsidies outside insurance contributions — –9.6 billion € (2022–2027)Non-indexation of payments — –2 billion € annuallyTotal: ≈20 billion € savings per year.
At the same time, according to BILD, since 2022 Germany has already allocated 50.5 billion euros to Ukraine and is preparing a new package — another 9 billion euros.
Posted by: Jo | Oct 6 2025 13:48 utc | 125
‼️Europe is preparing for war with Russia.🇷🇺 🇷🇺 Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Grushko stated that Europe is preparing for a military confrontation with our country.Active preparations are underway in Europe for a military clash with Russia, as evidenced by military activities and planning, as well as aggressive NATO exercises near our country’s borders.Europe continues to escalate the conflict in Ukraine by supplying long-range weapons, thereby involving itself in a direct conflict.
Posted by: Jo | Oct 6 2025 13:53 utc | 126
Russia tested a new weapon in a bright blue flash and some semblance of sanity seems to have hit the Europeans.Dnipro appears to be Russia’s weapons test ground.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 6 2025 9:00 utc | 103
Is there any further reports on the weapon or the damage it caused.
The drama never ends.
Zelensky sends Ukrainian drones operators to the frontline because one of them exposed the “Flamingo” cruise missile corrupt scheme (more US/EU taxpayer money straight into European leaders/Zelensky’s pocket,at the cost of Ukrainian civilian lives)
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 6 2025 14:45 utc | 128
Peter AU1 | Oct 6 2025 9:00 utc | 103
If you hit a substation with a warhead, the existing electrical potentials create a short circuit with an enormous blue-coloured electric arc.This has nothing to do with unknown phenomena.
Fg
Posted by: Oberbayer | Oct 6 2025 14:49 utc | 129
unimperator | Oct 6 2025 14:45 utc
This is the best place to die a hero. By a Russian drone, of course.
I love your comments. You are one of the best.
Fg
Posted by: Oberbayer | Oct 6 2025 14:54 utc | 130
Johan Kaspar @ 113
Any population RF gains will be aged and well beyond reproductive years. Ukrainian depopulation may well be approximately permanent.
Presumably RF will attempt to do some resettlement to exploit the more obvious natural resources. They may be in need of immigrants to accomplish much.
Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 6 2025 14:55 utc | 131
Yet the shelling of the Russian border regions continues unabated leaving many to flee or remain without power on an almost continuous basis.
Pfffff..’unabated shelling’ ..terrorism is a tool for the weak and desperate and the strikes would more accurately be called ‘sporadic and infrequent’.
Written in a bombastic way aggrandizing the literal pinprick of standoff weapons being used by spiteful Westerners. Those same Western architects of this war, unable to accept that the ‘wet pussy’ they jammed their limp financial dicks into is actually a steel-jawed bear trap. I used this imagery in my initial descriptions of the SMO and the quandary that the West got itself and the world into and it gets proven more true by the minute.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Oct 6 2025 15:01 utc | 132
unimperator @128:
In essence the little kosher Nazi got pissy and gave some of his more skilled assets a death sentence.
Way to go, Nazis!
Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 6 2025 15:06 utc | 133
@ 127 No “secret weapon” involved. The “blue flash,” called an Arc. Was simply the result of an electrical sub station being destroyed by conventional means. Similar to the blue flash an Arc welder makes. Only on a vastly larger scale.
Posted by: golddigger | Oct 6 2025 15:29 utc | 134
re: Oberbayer | Oct 6 2025 14:49 utc | 129
The videos available in Larry Johnson’s article that were taken from various dash cams show the entire sky lighting up with a brilliant blue flash, with a simultaneous outage of power in the city below. The scale of this flash and its location does not correspond with the explosion of a transformer,
Posted by: Perimetr | Oct 6 2025 15:30 utc | 135
The scale of this flash and its location does not correspond with the explosion of a transformer,
Posted by: Perimetr | Oct 6 2025 15:30 utc | 135
—
All the energy flowing through the transformers, enough to power a significant portion of a city, has to go somewhere instantly when the windings explode.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 6 2025 15:39 utc | 136
too scents @136:
All the energy flowing through the transformers, enough to power a significant portion of a city, has to go somewhere instantly when the windings explode.
I’ve seen smaller neighborhood-sized transformers explode before, and yes, the bright blue arcing lights up the sky and can be seen for many miles, and yes, the neighborhood goes dark right away.
I don’t see anything mysterious about the videos, and as I argued before I doubt a non-nuclear EMP device that can blackout an entire city can exist.
Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 6 2025 16:10 utc | 137
The more Gehlenskyi is loosing , the more “false flag & terrorism”, mostly in the EU, will happen. Don’t even try to understand what the Banderist will do when they will “loose” for good … the little green man with a white nose is already whining it’s all “western fault” (for once he says something partially true, it’s worth being related.).
Posted by: Savonarole | Oct 6 2025 16:13 utc | 138
Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 6 2025 14:55 utc | 131
Any population RF gains will be aged and well beyond reproductive years. Ukrainian depopulation may well be approximately permanent.Presumably RF will attempt to do some resettlement to exploit the more obvious natural resources. They may be in need of immigrants to accomplish much.
According to Russian sources, 4.8 million Ukrainians migrated to Russia after Freb. 2022.
Considering the demography of the Ukraines before 2014, close to 25% of that total are females between 15 and 45.
Adding females between 15 and 45 residing in the south and Kiev, and allowing a good part of them to move to the West, Russia may win at least 2.5 million females of reproductive age in total.
Add all the land and resources. Add the baby boom typical of post-war periods.
On the minus side of the ledger, count ~250k dead Russian soldiers.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Oct 6 2025 16:17 utc | 139
It’s time to listen to Pharaoh Trump and embrace peace. ZeroHedge reports of another massive drone attack into Russia:
Ukraine Mounts Major Drone Attack On Russian Ammo Plant, Oil Terminal & Arms Depot
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-mounts-major-drone-attack-russian-ammo-plant-oil-terminal-arms-depot
Both countries are being destroyed by this war. What advantage does Russia have in continuing the snail’s pace invasion?
Both sides are playing right into Obama Nixon and senile Biden’s desire for a forever war on Russia’s borders.
Posted by: Pharaoh Trump | Oct 6 2025 16:45 utc | 140
”
Quoted by Trubind1 @ 49:
“A unilateral ceasefire in the sky is quite possible,” –Rubber Boi
It will be a unilateral ceasefire only if Russia respects it, otherwise no ceasefire. Nazis are like zionists, they always lie.
Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 5 2025 20:57 utc | 51”
Let me translate ‘unilateral ceasefire’ for you – it maens ‘Aaargh, I have no air defense’ !
Posted by: Sarlat La Canéde | Oct 6 2025 16:45 utc | 141
Sarlat La Canéde @141:
Since there are those here who claim I am a Nazi, I guess that makes me qualified to judge the translation from Nazi to human, and I must say your translation is 100% spot on!
Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 6 2025 17:18 utc | 142
Posted by: Perimetr | Oct 6 2025 11:46 utc | 118 ‘No ground launched versions of Tomahawks and only US can fire them..’
A little googling will turn up that there is now a ground based launcher for the Tomahawks. The number of them in existence is small but more are being built. ‘containerized Mark 41 Vertical Launching System cells mounted on a tractor-trailer’
In addition the UK, Australia, Japan, and the Netherlands have bought them. The UK has used them in combat. Australia and the Netherlands has test fired them from their ships. Japan is getting them loaded on a destroyer this month.
Posted by: ed4 | Oct 6 2025 17:24 utc | 144
English Outsider: Comment 2
Good points there.
Let us also not forget that Russia has the ability to inflict horrible consequences on the Western world, in fact anywhere they please, should the tactics you describe are employed. I think it bears considering that Putin is all that stands in the way between NATO countries and Russian hardliners.
Posted by: Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh | Oct 6 2025 17:26 utc | 145
Posted by: Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh | Oct 6 2025 17:26 utc | 145 “Russia has the ability to inflict horrible consequences on the Western world”
Works the other way too.
Posted by: ed4 | Oct 6 2025 17:44 utc | 146
@26
Bibi went into Gaza to commit a genocide.
Putin went into Ukraine to stop one.
Posted by: Fred777 | Oct 6 2025 17:50 utc | 147
With ruthless precision and facts, Mike Mihajlovic from Black Mountain Analysis destroys the hopium dreams of neo-cons and Putin-hating shills. Tomahawk theater is just another in a long series of morale-boosting lies, meant to keep hope alive among the neo-cons:
<blockquote>In recent months, Ukrainian officials and sympathetic commentators have floated the possibility of Kiev acquiring U.S.-made BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missiles. The suggestion, circulated in political speeches, media soundbites, and social media campaigns, is meant to signal resolve and project the image of Ukraine entering the exclusive club of long-range precision-strike powers. Yet, for anyone with more than a cursory understanding of modern weapons integration, the idea is little more than a fantasy. Far from a credible option, it is a case study in how political actors and warmongering pundits co-opt the language of advanced weaponry for marketing purposes rather than serious military planning.</blockquote>
(3) Tomahawk for Ukraine: Never-ending Saga of the Wunderwaffe to Turn the Tide [i]
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 6 2025 18:08 utc | 149
Posted by: ed4 | Oct 6 2025 17:24 utc | 144
Here’s an article on the Tomahawk ground launch system that may be of interest to some: https://open.substack.com/pub/bmanalysis/p/tomahawk-for-ukraine-never-ending?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Oct 6 2025 18:08 utc | 150
Ukraine Has Just Generated Another Cash Sink For Western Taxpayers
https://www.rt.com/news/625899-canada-ukraine-freeland-taxpayer/
“The office of the ‘Special Representative for the Reconstruction of Ukraine’ has been created for Canada’s deputy prime minister [Chrystia Freeland].
In the meantime, Canadian cash for weapons, ‘for Ukraine‘ is sure pumping up the integrated US/Canada military-industrial complex, which seems to be the go-to Western strategy for boosting their GDP these days amid their tanking economies.
Anyway, Freeland has just used her new Canadian taxpayer-funded role to plead Ukraine’s case in the pages of the Financial Times. She wrote that ‘The fact is we need Ukraine to save us,’ presumably from the other side of the world, in Ottawa…”
Posted by: John Gilberts | Oct 6 2025 18:17 utc | 151
re: ed4 | Oct 6 2025 17:24 utc | 144
Thanks, I didn’t see that, I stand corrected.
IMHO this significantly increases the chances of real escalation.
Posted by: Perimetr | Oct 6 2025 18:29 utc | 152
Dnipro. New weapon or supermassive electrical arc?
No prior explosion/s before blue flash. I believe in one video there’s 2 blue flashes.
Loads of footage showing drone and missile arrivals in most cities except Dnipro.
If EMP, wouldn’t car electrics dash cam fry too?
Posted by: Suresh | Oct 6 2025 18:31 utc | 153
Ukrainians are stealing EU money hands over fist. Perhaps, because Ukrainian suppliers know much better what’s going on in the war, no chance to win, so lets take as much as possible.
After all it’s not by accident thousands of new millionaires have been created in Ukraine during SMO.
Hello to European suckers
NYT: Ukraine’s spending on secret weapons raises questions after internal audit …billions of dollars coming from the Ukrainian army to domestic weapons manufacturers with the support of European donors remain largely shrouded in military secrecy.
This causes concern among analysts and activists, who believe that Ukraine has achieved only small progress in combating longstanding corruption in the sphere of military procurement. One of the objects of attention for government auditors checking military expenses is the repeated awarding by Kyiv of contracts to companies offering higher prices, without explaining the reasons. Internal government audits, studied by The New York Times, show dozens of such contracts signed in just a little over a year, as well as cases of delays or incomplete deliveries and advance payments for weapons that were never delivered. …the audit showed that dozens of contracts for artillery shells, drones, and other weapons were not awarded to the lowest bidder. The difference between the low offers and the contracts actually concluded amounted to at least 5.4 billion hryvnias (about 129 million dollars). …Sometimes low offers are rejected for inexplicable reasons… …dubious expenses, including huge overpayments for eggs for soldiers’ rations and winter jackets. These scandals led to the resignation of Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. As part of a program initiated by Denmark, European countries promised more than 1.6 billion dollars for the purchase of weapons from domestic industry. …As of last year, most procurement was carried out through intermediaries, who received a markup of about 3 percent, a separate audit of procurement up to July of last year showed. The agency involved intermediaries in 83 percent of contracts instead of direct procurement from suppliers. …of 35 types of surface and underwater drones produced by 26 Ukrainian companies, only three models actually sank Russian ships… Audits recorded numerous contracts that led to delays or incomplete deliveries, as well as cases of advance payments for weapons that companies did not deliver. Contracts were identified with companies without verification of the existence of production facilities, for example suitable workshops…
https://x.com/anatoliisharii/status/1975261628120600657
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 6 2025 18:34 utc | 154
re: Suresh | Oct 6 2025 18:31 utc | 153
you ask: “If EMP, wouldn’t car electrics dash cam fry too?”
Not if the E1 wave is not powerful enough to disable or damage their solid-state circuits (the cars kept running, too). Probably was centered/targeted above a substation or generation unit.
As someone else mentioned, only the EMP produced by an exoatmospheric nuclear detonation is going to have enough power to fry solid-state electronics over a large area.
Posted by: Perimetr | Oct 6 2025 18:43 utc | 155
@144
The tomahawk/SM 6 canister is integral to ship launched aegis systems.
Please provide links to anyone other than US Army buying the containers and independent Mission Control equipment for Typhon systems.
Posted by: paddy | Oct 6 2025 18:58 utc | 156
re: paddy | Oct 6 2025 18:58 utc | 156
I think Ed was referring to this:
USMC’s Tomahawk Cruise Missile Launching Drone Truck Eyed By Army
Posted by: Perimetr | Oct 6 2025 19:18 utc | 157
Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 6 2025 16:10 utc | 137- ref. also @134, @135
@137 W.Gruff:You’re right, pls. note also :
The last dash-cam video (ref. in @135) shows the Fail-Safe systems are still working properly after blackout (Traffic-Lights control, some windows, dash-cam itself).It’s definitely NOT a big EMP weapon. (may be a ‘small one’ locally effective only on some 100 m ? – No: that wouldn’t cause such a big ‘plasma ionisation’ of > 1000 m height seen on sky .. never.)Forget Russian EMP wonderweapon here – thank you all.___
Posted by: spare_truth_03 | Oct 6 2025 19:58 utc | 158
Merz assumes Russia was behind the incursion of ‘reconnaissance drones’ that sparked chaos at Munich Airport and left over 10,000 passengers stranded this weekend.
He added that the frequency of the incursions in Europe’s airspace was unprecedented even compared with Cold War times.
Merz noted that all the drones responsible for the disruption had been on reconnaissance flights.
‘Our assumption is that Russia is behind most of these drone flights,’ he said.
Munich Airport, one of Germany‘s biggest, was forced to cancel flights late on Thursday and Friday, before reopening from 7.00am local time.
Is this paranoid megalomaniac trying to justify Taurus or worse???.
Posted by: Jo | Oct 6 2025 19:59 utc | 159
‼️🇷🇺 Russian UVB-76, also known as the “Doomsday Radio Station” or the “Buzzing”, came on airMessage for today06.10.25 10:58 MSKNZHTI 59400 OREHOBRUS 2456 1459Your cipher versions 😀
Posted by: Jo | Oct 6 2025 20:26 utc | 160
Scott Ritter and Judge Napolitano: Nato collapsing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b28JrBj8CrI
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 6 2025 20:33 utc | 161
❗️🇪🇺🏴☠️🇩🇪👉🇷🇺 European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius:
I trust the intelligence services. And the German intelligence claims to have evidence that the Kremlin is discussing an attack on NATO. And if they are discussing it, doesn’t that mean they are planning an attack?
Posted by: Jo | Oct 6 2025 20:35 utc | 162
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Oct 6 2025 18:08 utc | 150
Posted by: paddy | Oct 6 2025 18:58 utc | 156
Posted by: Perimetr | Oct 6 2025 19:18 utc | 157
I give it a very low probability that Ukraine gets the TLAMs. But they are not as tied into the US as that Substack article claims. I also understand there are only 8 ground based launchers in existence as of a month or two ago.
Posted by: ed4 | Oct 6 2025 20:38 utc | 163
Posted by: Jo | Oct 6 2025 19:59 utc | 159<blockquote>… Is this paranoid megalomaniac trying to justify Taurus or worse???.</blockquote>
Trivial answer :
Yes it is – it’s still a somehow very dangereous approach of ALL German’s Gov. members ongoing in its daily PR-Media News/Shows trying to provoke RF-Gov’s reaction or counter-action as most aggressive as possible. That’s to ‘convince’ the latest sheep in DE being obsessed by R-Phobia going “War-Capable” NOW …(yet laughing hereto why?: there is only a still remaining folks in DE (incl. children > 10y old!) of 26 % (latest polls) that looks against Russians as a “Big Threat” for themselfes.)
Pls. wait 2 months, then RF may have captured another several more strategical “UKR”-cities back to the “Russian by polls declared provinces” LVR,DVR,Sap..,Odes..).
NATO’s (even Trump clown’s) current Pentagon plannings is still going ahead to “prepare” for that on the up-coming ‘status-quo’ when UAF has totally lost on ground the DVR,LVR,Sapar.,Odessa provinces and remains in blackouts ..
NAhTOT has also already planned something new OPs for Moldavia & Georgia & Hungary via the ‘3-char Intel’ agencies.. Goog Luck Mr. Trump clown & JD.Vance – go ahead.. waiting for what happens next future .. !
Posted by: spare_truth_03 | Oct 6 2025 20:57 utc | 164
🇺🇦🏴☠️👉🇷🇺 Ukraine is preparing new sanctions against those who help Russia, – Zelensky
“We have submitted proposals to restrict supply schemes. The relevant data for each company and each product is with our partners, and they know what and how exactly to respond. This week there will be a meeting of the sanctions coordinators of the Group of Seven (G7), and we expect a systematic solution to ensure the effectiveness of the sanctions. It is important to stop all schemes to circumvent sanctions because Russia uses each such scheme to continue killings. The world has the power to stop this,”Bit optimistic methinks
Posted by: Jo | Oct 6 2025 20:58 utc | 165
Hi Jo,
If you’re reporting from Telegram, can you provide links to the Telegram posts themselves?
Thanks.
Posted by: joey_n | Oct 6 2025 21:00 utc | 166
Jo, I appreciate your posts and updates, even if they scare the beejesus out of me.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Oct 6 2025 21:08 utc | 167
FAQ: Sorry MoA prof guys: How does the ‘blockquote’ html5 element will further be applied ..?
Thanks for a hint ..
Posted by: spare_truth_03 | Oct 6 2025 21:13 utc | 168
what will ukrop political and business elites do when all those yellow lines are behind the loc?My guess that’d be the time when they call it a day and run.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Oct 6 2025 11:19 utc | 115
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 6 2025 12:02 utc | 120
One of the large (moving) cauldrons next year would be the whole of the Zaporhziye front line, if UKrain does not capitulate.
Posted by: jopalolive | Oct 6 2025 21:33 utc | 169
From the latest s article Mr Putin confirms what I have said all along it’s a SlogMow he called it “trickle warfare” two or three guys at a time attacking, no, not tickle warfare, but trickle…..fuck, gonna be a long haul at this rate……looks like, according to him, neither side is going anywhere fast……..some drone issue, whoda think it…..
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 6 2025 21:33 utc | 170
Response to Mail @ Mom of Elendsky, the answer firstly published/whisteled here by a Russian IT-phone cell speciaclist on phone call tracking .. :
“Yes, dear Wladimir, my son Wladi, all of this is truly very unfortunate for you at the moment and all the corrupt members of your military government. But, be glad that this will end soon, by the end of 2025 at the latest, and that you will hopefully come home safely to my house in Miami. Love You – Your mom.
Posted by: spare_truth_03 | Oct 6 2025 21:35 utc | 171
Mr Putin also throws out some not so favourable numbers for either side, regarding KIA WIA MIA……apparently both sides have issues and the numbers may not be as lop sided as some suspect.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 6 2025 21:39 utc | 172
🇺🇦Zelensky called on allies to pay for American weapons before winter.
At the same time, he singled out only five countries that paid the first part of the armament and criticized the rest, who, according to him, show no desire to pay.
🇷🇺🇺🇦Zelensky stated that Russia is trying to destroy Ukraine’s gas production, and also predicts an increase in the number of strikes on this infrastructure.
“It will be difficult to protect all of this. But we are preparing reserves so that people have gas and electricity. We will fight and gradually increase our own production step by step.”
I seem to recall previous concerns that stocks were low and very unlikely to be sufficient.And
In two years, the protection of Naftogaz facilities has not been established.This was stated by Mikhail Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, commenting on recent Russian strikes on gas infrastructure.According to him, if Ukrenergo’s facilities with the new level of protection can withstand 5–6 drones and the equipment is operational again within a few hours, the situation at compressor stations and gas treatment plants is different — there is simply no protection there.@Slavyangrad
Ukrainian resources, citing developers, continue to claim that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have acquired their own weapon, capable of striking up to 1000 km away. This involves a modernized RK360L rocket system from the Neptune complex. Some sources call it the “Long Neptune” or “Long-Range Neptune.” A very high percentage of components is from external suppliers, eg technology from USA UK. Zaluzny says Ukraine needs an oreshnik.
The delusional continues
Zelensky is rude to Orban and disputes the results of the referendum in Hungary.
‘Ukraine will be in the European Union — with Orban or without him. Because this is the choice of the Ukrainian people. I am sure that the people of Hungary support Ukraine in any case. I am sure of that.’
He expects the EU to devise mechanisms to speed up entry, avoid or disregard any no votes, even to remove Orban altogether. Time for Hungary Sleep vakia and now Check Rep to act together. Seems as if still trouble and Serbia maybe they can sort it out and join in too?@Slavyangrad
Partizan on slavyangrad hAs full details re Russia drone missile attacks.
hmm
All those who left their units without permission will eventually be granted amnesty: no one intends to imprison them, if only because of their large numbers, says Third Army Corps commander Andriy Biletsky.@ukr_leaks_eng@Slavyangrad
Posted by: Jo | Oct 6 2025 21:46 utc | 173
uh, err, um
Trump on Tomahawks
RT on X:
https://x.com/i/status/1975303427803783345
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-says-he-would-want-know-ukraines-plans-tomahawk-missiles-2025-10-06/
Not sure if it means more likely…
Posted by: ed4 | Oct 6 2025 21:54 utc | 174
Hands up those who knew Russia could shut down airports with 🎈🎈 🎈
Where’s my copy of “99 Red Balloons”?
Posted by: Suresh | Oct 6 2025 22:25 utc | 175
Posted by: Perimetr | Oct 6 2025 19:18 utc | 157
please read my post @149
Tomahawks ain’t happening… Trumps cryptic statement points to a big, beautiful bluff as well.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 6 2025 22:31 utc | 176
Thanks Perimetr, so EMP only needs to be big to disable a switching station/ transformer to cause what I assume is cascading overload effect shutting off mains power to the grid? That could explain the electrical arcs.
Posted by: Suresh | Oct 6 2025 22:42 utc | 177
From Mike Mihajlovic:
In recent months, Ukrainian officials and sympathetic commentators have floated the possibility of Kiev acquiring U.S.-made BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missiles. The suggestion, circulated in political speeches, media soundbites, and social media campaigns, is meant to signal resolve and project the image of Ukraine entering the exclusive club of long-range precision-strike powers. Yet, for anyone with more than a cursory understanding of modern weapons integration, the idea is little more than a fantasy. Far from a credible option, it is a case study in how political actors and warmongering pundits co-opt the language of advanced weaponry for marketing purposes rather than serious military planning.
THE REALITY
Ukraine cannot realistically operate the BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missile under any practical military conditions. Even in a hypothetical scenario where the United States provided the missiles (as mentioned previously with the Typhon system), their employment would remain wholly dependent on U.S. military infrastructure, personnel, and systems. This dependency is not merely a matter of policy or diplomatic caution; it is built into the fundamental architecture of the Tomahawk system, its integration requirements, and the operational doctrine that governs its operation. The Tomahawk is not a plug-and-play munition that can be launched from an improvised platform with manually entered coordinates. It is a deeply embedded component of U.S. naval strike warfare, requiring a sophisticated ecosystem of platforms, command systems, data links, cryptographic authentication, and mission planning tools that exist only within the U.S. Navy—and, to a limited degree, the Royal Navy.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 6 2025 22:44 utc | 178
Posted by: ed4 | Oct 6 2025 21:54 utc | 174Probally having understood you well on your question and an open answers, relying to your 2nd referred URL in your post:”Not sure if it means more likely…?”
“WASHINGTON, Oct 6 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he would want to know what Ukraine planned to do with U.S.-made Tomahawk missiles before agreeing to supply them because he does not want to escalate Russia’s war against Ukraine.” – I think as follows:
So at the moment today obviously, Mr. Trump aka puppet of US-Gov still must have to respond clearly & will say only to ‘consider/approve’ about any Tomahawk deliveries to UKR attacking deeply into Russian territory. Today, nothing is clarified ..
I think, US-Pentagon’s commanders are still waiting for US-Pres. allowance, but actually they’re still waiting for any ‘False-flag OPs’ in EU Baltic Seas or elsewhere having occured, but then to start that “Tomahawk project” asap. … That’s only the first planned OP/strike against RF after UAF forces would have surrendered at all ..?
Posted by: spare_truth_03 | Oct 6 2025 23:04 utc | 179
@178
A clever realistic technical issues referred here and imo today’s best reality-based statement acc.to the so-called “Tomahawks planned or PR-announced OP’s” by the EU/US think tanks Media for next future.
Thanks.
Posted by: spare_truth_03 | Oct 6 2025 23:24 utc | 180
@157
USMC mk 41 canister on a truck was cancelled in July 2025.
USMC said it was not suitable in austere expeditionary use.
Posted by: paddy | Oct 6 2025 23:33 utc | 181
it appears all my post regarding EMP have been deleted. That seems unfortunate to me, will be signing off now
Posted by: Perimetr | Oct 7 2025 0:00 utc | 183
Well, S has just posted something that invalidates any and all times putin mentioneod 5 and even 7 kill ratios
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/putin-reveals-new-casualty-insights
I can readily addapt my second grunt vs marine model but
- The kill ratio will barely be 3:1
- will have to remodel everything and AFU has still a lot to throw itrno the fray
- Mediazona , even BBC porvbate estimate , are conservative on RF casualtier
A small correction if S reads it.
Wounded permanent losses are seldom amputees, 1 in 10 is already huge and unlikely.
Cannot fix it with 2022/2023 amputation numbers.
With these corrections 2027 is a bare minimum for taking east of dniepre…
Unless S retracts snail military operation is optimistic…
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 7 2025 0:45 utc | 184
Why do you think these so-called leaders flash their mafia gang signs especially with their hands in the shape of an oval?
They’re rebirthing a new world order. In order for the ritual they have Isis in mind, a god woman who conceived from the parts of Seth except his dick and they made it artificially with an obelisk then was born Horus. That’s why you see obelisks everywhere around the world especially in major cities. They’re throwing up and puking in our faces.
That’s why they call it the Horus maxtrix
Posted by: dobby | Oct 7 2025 1:03 utc | 185
Acc.to EMP comments above, my final comment :
@Suresh : @153 (not proofed), @175 (only spam filling), @177 (confused AI-logic)
@Perimetr: @155 (like AI-Nonsense: the “E1 wave” what’s that?), @182 (nothing deleted, AI-Fatamorgana)
So, finally worth to read on the EMP issue (Russian ‘EMP wonderweapon’) is : @137, @178 only, plus my comments here – Cheers !
Posted by: spare_truth_03 | Oct 7 2025 1:29 utc | 186
Oh I forgot, the three Abrahamic religions are based on this concept that I wrote above.
Besides, how does god write a book after creating such a beautiful planet then inserting villains in?
Posted by: dobby | Oct 7 2025 1:46 utc | 187
“Ukraine Abandons Pokrovsk – Half the City Lost as Chaos Erupts Among Soldiers” ?????
—
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvSUdRHSa1c (length: 15 minutes).
Posted by: WMG | Oct 7 2025 3:36 utc | 188
Mark Sleboda | Stunning Retaliation: Russia Shatters Kiev’s Energy Sector – Zelensky Cries For Truce
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XD7nJAomkhQ
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 7 2025 4:27 utc | 189
Martyanov posted a strike in Kharkov that shows 2 blue flashes after an explosion and lights going out. Sigh! No EMP 🙁
Happy birthday Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.
Posted by: Suresh | Oct 7 2025 4:57 utc | 190
How Russia’s No Fly Zone Is Crushing European Airlines
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Europe has led to the implementation of a no fly zone, significantly impacting the aviation industry, particularly European airlines such as Lufthansa, Swiss Airlines, and Finnair. This restriction on Russian airspace has resulted in longer flight routes and increased fuel costs for airlines, ultimately affecting the economy and finance of countries like Germany and Italy. The Lufthansa airline group is suffering from severe economic turbulence with rising costs and loss of its most profitable routes. Meanwhile airlines like Air India and Chinese airlines are benefiting from Europe’s exclusion from Russian airspace. As the situation continues to unfold, it is essential to understand the geopolitics at play and how they are influencing the airline industry, including companies like Lufthansa Group, and the broader travel and tourism sector in Europe. With the German economy and European economy heavily reliant on air travel, the no fly zone over Russian airspace is crushing European airlines, making it difficult for them to maintain profitability and competitiveness in the global market, including against airlines from countries like China. The effects of this no fly zone are being felt across the continent, from Germany flights to European travel, and it is crucial to stay informed about the latest developments in this critical aspect of international relations and their impact on the aviation and travel industries. Join in to learn more as Rhod Mackenzie looks at how Lufthansa, Finnair and others have suffered from Russia’s ban on airlines from unfriendly countries using is airspace
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPfSLukssCc
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 7 2025 5:06 utc | 191
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 7 2025 5:06 utc | 191
How sad
Poor iccle diddums
Posted by: watcher | Oct 7 2025 5:42 utc | 192
The FT reports:
US to provide intel to guide Ukrainian long-range missile attacks on Russia
Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he has discussed Tomahawk cruise missiles with Donald Trump
Oct 2 2025, 20:59
The US will provide Ukraine with new intelligence to help guide long-range missile and drone strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure, a move that marks an escalation in Washington’s role in the war.
Washington already provides intelligence support to Ukraine, but the new measures could help Kyiv to better map Russian air defences and plot strike routes, bolstering the effectiveness of its existing long-range drones and missiles, said people familiar with the discussions.
Such support would also aid any new long-range weapons that Washington may approve for sale to Nato allies on the basis they would be given to Ukraine.
While no final decision has been made public, President Donald Trump had told agencies to prepare to share intelligence, the people said.
One of the people familiar with White House discussions described “a seismic shift in attitude” inside Trump’s inner circle. But the person cautioned the president remained opposed to using US taxpayer funds to help Ukraine, preferring Nato allies purchase weapons from Washington and then supply them to Kyiv.
continues ==> https://www.ft.com/content/1417049a-5a1c-4fcb-8370-2341b164b2a1
I missed this very significant reporting from last week, maybe because of the shutdown mess.
Also the formatting seems fine in the TinyMCE editor window, lets see what the “Post Comment” button does.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 7 2025 6:21 utc | 193
lets see what the “Post Comment” button does.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 7 2025 6:21 utc | 193
—
The line breaks (and more) were destroyed.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 7 2025 6:22 utc | 194
Well hello.
Re: Posted by: Newbie | Oct 7 2025 0:45 utc |
A small correction if S reads it. Wounded permanent losses are seldom amputees, 1 in 10 is already huge and unlikely.Cannot fix it with 2022/2023 amputation numbers. With these corrections 2027 is a bare minimum for taking east of dniepre…Unless S retracts snail military operation is optimistic…
Nice to see you join the world of reality we all actually live in – rather than the land of delusion and illusion often talked about on here.
Posted by: Julian | Oct 7 2025 6:54 utc | 195
Nice to see you join the world of reality we all actually live in – rather than the land of delusion and illusion often talked about on here.
Posted by: Julian | Oct 7 2025 6:54 utc | 195
hardly, I just said simplicius interpretation of numbers numbers would not be compatible with several tangential analysis I did in the past e.g. sociology institute and later polls on killed and maimed by person, announced number of amputees by official sources , et (and absolutely off in the amputees vs unable to fight, invalids is a group at least 20x the amputees)
Furthermore it would mean Putin would have lied in kill ratios.
Also that Trump would have lied mentioning millions killed.
also that AFU should still be able to recruit enough to cover losses (and do it for some time to come)
but on one thing you can rest assured , I present the corollaries of what is stated as close to consequences as my extrapolations go.
if S (or other previously credible sources) says something I will say what it means if taken at face value. I try to be as honest and direct as I can. (And I think a lot o people here know that)
also I model , project and discuss, always clarifying any reasonable doubts posed by anyone.
but as a final note thank you for a “nice” answer. Civility is always welcome (particularly gloating 🙂 )
Now, does anyone know why a couple of days ago AFU casualties were only 800ish?
Posted by: Newbie | Oct 7 2025 8:45 utc | 196
When the tactical engagements at the front become less decisive because FPV drones suffocate any large movements, the momentum of the war will change towards the “strategic” level, which they call air or energy war.
Posted by: persiflo | Oct 7 2025 10:02 utc | 197
Drones don’t do well in bad weather. I expect something is going to move.
Posted by: Catilina | Oct 7 2025 11:43 utc | 198
More Nato winning – Pokrovsk on verge of collapse, likewise Ukrainian energy system on verge of collapse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0-C9YV1H6o
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 7 2025 11:56 utc | 199
Ukrainian fortified agglomeration Poltavka-Okhotnyche collapsing. RUAF taking Novohryrorivka. RUAF took Oleksiivka after massive MLRS bombardment, pushing very close to the Vovcha river, further isolating Orestopil fortified agglomeration.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 7 2025 12:06 utc | 200