This war will be won on the battlefield. Ukraine will prevail and rise back even stronger – WeAreUkraine, Apr 10, 2022
“This war will be won on the battlefield,” said [EU foreign policy chief Josep] Borrell on Twitter. “Ukraine will prevail and rise back even stronger. And the EU will continue to stand by you, every step of the way.”
Speech by President [of the European Council] Charles Michel to the Verkhovna Rada in Kyiv – Consilium, Jan 19 2023
We are determined to help you win on the battlefield. When President Zelenskyy called me on February 24th, he said, “Charles, we need weapons, we need ammunition”. Three days later, we formally decided to provide lethal equipment to a third country for the first time in the history of the EU.
Boris Johnson vows Ukraine ‘will win’ as he visits Kyiv on two-year anniversary of war Independent, Feb 24 2024
Mr Johnson said: “On this grim second anniversary of Putin’s invasion I am honoured to be here in Ukraine. With their indomitable courage I have no doubt that the Ukrainians will win and expel Putin’s forces – provided we give them the military, political and economic help that they need.”
Ukraine Must Win, Regain Full Territory: Germany’s Merz – Kyiv Post, Jan 21 2025
Merz said he wants peace in Ukraine but not “at the price of submission to an imperialist power” and stressed that “Ukraine must win the war.”
“To me, winning means restoring territorial integrity,” said Merz, whose conservative CDU-CSU is leading in polls ahead of Germany’s Feb. 23 election. “Winning also means that Ukraine must have complete freedom to choose its political and, if necessary, military alliances.”
A few months later … and the delusion of ‘winning’ is gone …
Joint statement on Ukraine: 21 October 2025
Statement by President Zelenskyy, Prime Minister Starmer, Chancellor Merz, President Macron, Prime Minister Meloni, Prime Minister Tusk, President von der Leyen, President Costa, Prime Minister Støre, President Stubb, Prime Minister Frederiksen, Prime Minister Sánchez and Prime Minister Kristersson on Peace for Ukraine.
We strongly support President Trump’s position that the fighting should stop immediately, and that the current line of contact should be the starting point of negotiations.
…
Therefore we are clear that Ukraine must be in the strongest possible position – before, during, and after any ceasefire.
Russia will of course not agree to this ceasefire nonsense. During the Minsk agreement, which included a ceasefire in east Ukraine, the time was used to arm Ukraine and to prepare its army for further attacks. Russia wont fall for the same trick twice.
Lavrov Rejects Ceasefire: Russia Says Halting War Would ‘Preserve the Nazi Regime’ in Ukraine – Novinite, Oct 21 2025
Speaking to reporters, Lavrov criticized a joint statement by European leaders who reaffirmed their support for Ukraine and backed US President Donald Trump’s recent diplomatic efforts to stop the fighting. “A ceasefire now would mean only one thing – that a vast part of Ukraine remains under the control of a Nazi regime,” he said. “It would be the only place on Earth where an entire language is legally banned, not to mention that it is an official UN language and spoken by the majority of the population.”
Borell and Michel were right when they said that the war will be decided on the battlefield. But it wont be Ukraine that will be winning.
Russia has introduced a new version of the universal guidance kit attached to dumb bombs of previous ages. They now can reach up to 100 kilometer from their release point. Their precision is truly impressive (vid). Over the last week the Russian airforce dropped more than 250 of those per day!
Russian Geran drones have evolved further. The Geran-2 has a 90 kg warhead, night vision and some autonomous targeting capabilities. It can also be manually controlled via repeaters even over longer distances. The new Geran-3 with a jet engine is just coming in. It has a range of 700 km and carries a 250 kilogram warhead. It is cheaper than ballistic Iskander missiles while fulfilling a similar purpose.
After the Alaska summit between the Presidents Trump and Putin the Russian side had agreed to a ceasefire on long range infrastructure targets. Unfortunately Ukraine never held up to it. It continued to attack Russian refineries and electricity station. After a pause Russia countered with a major campaign against Ukraine’s energy and railway infrastructure. It will continue until Ukraine agrees to cease and desist from strikes on Russia.
Unless that happens Ukraine is in for a cold and very dark winter.