Just a few days ago I stated that Trump is targeting Venezuela under the pretext of countering drug trafficking. But the real reasons for this are clear:

Venzuela is, as Politico points out, not known for drug trafficking. It does not have ‘cocaine facilities’. But it does have the largest oil reserves in the world. That has always made it a target for a U.S. regime-change operations.

But Venezuela is also a huge country double the size of Iraq with a mountainous and often densely wooded countryside. The U.S. military is unable to invade, occupy and control it.

But what the U.S. might want to try in Venezuela is a variant of the Israeli plan for Iran.

A decapitation strike killing President Maduro and the military leadership accompanied by a bombing campaign to take out air defenses and primary defense units. Meanwhile the CIA and special forces will have to work on the ground in Caracas to organize local thugs for an assault on the main government sites and radio/TV buildings.

A few days ago the U.S. ordered the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford to move from the Mediterranean towards Venezuela. The carrier is expected to arrive in early to mid November. I had expected that the U.S. would wait with any attack on Venezuela until the carrier force is in place. Until than it would continue its intimidation strikes on random fishermen at sea.

The Wall Street Journal though says that the U.S. is already ready to strike on land:

U.S. Eyes Striking Venezuelan Military Targets Used for Drug Trafficking (archived) – WSJ

The Trump administration has identified targets in Venezuela that include military facilities used to smuggle drugs, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter. If President Trump decides to move forward with airstrikes, they said, the targets would send a clear message to Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro that it is time to step down.

While the president hasn’t made a final decision on ordering land strikes, the officials said a potential air campaign would focus on targets that sit at the nexus of the drug gangs and the Maduro regime.
…
The potential targets under consideration include ports and airports controlled by the military that are allegedly used to traffic drugs, including naval facilities and airstrips, according to one of the officials.

The Miami Herald says that the decision to attack Venezuela has been made and that strikes are imminent:

Cont. reading: U.S. Ready To Bomb Venezuela Under Absurdly False Pretext

A Truth Social tweet by U.S. President Donald Trump on nuclear weapons has led to some confusion and, as I assume, misinterpretations.

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump – Oct 30, 2025, 1:04 utc

The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country. This was accomplished, including a complete update and renovation of existing weapons, during my First Term in office. Because of the tremendous destructive power, I HATED to do it, but had no choice! Russia is second, and China is a distant third, but will be even within 5 years. Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP

The Washington Post interprets it as a test of nuclear warheads:

Trump directs Pentagon to test nuclear weapons for first time since 1992 (archived) – Washington Post
The president said he wanted testing to occur “on an equal basis” with Russia and China. The Kremlin condemned the move, and there was no indication of when tests might take place.

President Donald Trump on Thursday morning said he directed the Pentagon to begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, an apparent attempt to flex the United States’ military might ahead of a high-stakes trade meeting here with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

Trump’s announcement on Truth Social signaled a reversal of decades of United States nuclear policy that could have far-reaching consequences for relations with U.S. adversaries, though his post included very few details about what the tests would entail. The last nuclear weapon test in the United States was held in 1992, before President George H.W. Bush implemented a moratorium on such exercises at the conclusion of the Cold War.

Trump wrote that the process would begin immediately and was in response to other countries’ testing programs.

The president posted about resuming nuclear weapons testing as his helicopter, Marine One, was in the air on his way to meet Xi at Gimhae Air Base.

The Trump tweet is wrong in that it asserts that the U.S. has more nuclear weapons than any other country. All public sources say that Russia with about 4300 nuclear warheads has slightly more than the United States with about 3,600. China has about 5-600 nuclear warheads and is building up its nuclear weapon arsenal to about 1,000 warheads by 2035.

However Trumps next sentence is not about testing nuclear warheads. It is about testing of carrier systems that can deploy nuclear warheads.

Trump says: “Because of other countries testing programs, …”

No country has recently exploded a nuclear bomb or warhead for testing or other purposes. The last known nuclear test was done by North Korea in 2017.

It is important to distinguish between testing a carrier designed to deliver a nuclear war head and testing, i.e. exploding, the nuclear war head itself. A nuclear carrier can be a bomber, a land based (intercontinental) missile or a submarine based missile or torpedo.

Russia has recently announced a successful test of the Burevestnik cruise missile. This is a potential nuclear warhead carrier driven by a nuclear-powered jet engine:

Cont. reading: A Nuclear Delivery Vehicle Is Not A Nuclear War Head

English Outsider comments in response to my Ukrainian glasshouse post:

“I seriously doubt that these people are sane.”

They’re psychos.  Gaza shows that past doubt.  But there’s logic to their insanity.  Although we’re heading for straight military defeat in the Ukrainian theatre they still have the Russians over a barrel.  The problem of remnant Ukraine, the problem that has been staring all in the face since February 2022, it still one to which the Russians have no good solution.  It’s clear that the Western politicians,  Trump included, will not assist with coming to any good solution.

The future of Eastern Ukraine is already determined though we don’t yet know how much of it the Russians will decide to incorporate within the RF.  But remnant Ukraine, whatever that turns out to be in territorial terms, poses a problem as insoluble as ever,

First, Eastern Ukraine.

Lavrov:

And when we now liberate remaining parts of Zaporozhye, this is the Russian way to pronounce it. And Kherson, the people, in spite of the attempts of Ukrainian army to pull them into mainland Ukraine, most of them are not leaving. They’re staying, and they’re welcoming the Russian soldiers who liberate them. So this is not our will, our “imperialist desire”, some people say. This is our concern for the future of the people who feel being part of the Russian culture.

This fits with statements from the Ukrainian authorities to the effect that they were having difficulty evacuating Kupiansk.  Many did not wish to be evacuated.  The same was seen in Bakhmut and in other towns and cities.

Later on Lavrov returns to the subject:Cont. reading: English Outsider On Solving Ukraine

Yesterday U.S. President Donald Trump visited Japan and met with its new Prime Minister Sanae Takaishi. Both are conservatives and agree on many points. Japan is a trusted vassal which rarely collides with the U.S. demands.

But one serious point of contention is open between the two nations and threatens to blow up the relation.

Earlier this year Trump had imposed a 25% tariff on U.S. imports from Japan. The previous prime minister had ‘sold the house’ to lower that rate:

So desperate was now-former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to lower Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on Japanese products to 15%, especially on automotive products, that he signed on to an incredible surrender regarding Tokyo’s promise for the government to invest $550 billion in the US over the coming three years.

Not only does Trump get to choose the projects and the US get the lion’s share of any profits, but if Japan dares to reject any of Trump’s schemes as nonviable, Ishiba has given Trump permission to impose even higher tariffs. The jointly-signed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) says that, “In the case where Japan elects not to fund [a project Trump has named—rk], the United States may also impose tariff rate or rates on Japanese imports into the United States at the rate determined by the President [emphasis added].”

The total surrender took the form of a Memorandum of Understanding which did not require a vote in the Diet. But the enormous amount of money it pledges to invest in the U.S. would need parliamentary approval. There was and is practically not chance that anything like it would pass. The ‘investment’ would blow up Japan’s government budget. It would also increase the U.S. trade deficit with Japan.

The completely unbalanced agreement was one reason why Ishiba was ousted from his position.

I had wondered how Takaishi would handle this most important issues. But it seems that both sides have agreed to ignore it:Cont. reading: How Can Japan Handle Its $550 Billion Trump Problem?

Ukraine: “Let’s attack Russian refineries. The Russians will run out of gasoline and diesel. There will be protests and Putin will be deposed.”

Result:

Emergency power outages have been introduced in the city of Kyiv as well as Kyiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk and other oblasts on the morning of 27 October.
…
“On the orders of Ukrenergo [Ukraine’s state-owned electricity transmission system operator], emergency power outages have been introduced in Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.”
…
In addition, Sumyoblenergo, Sumy’s distribution system operator, announced emergency outages for its consumers.

The same situation is occurring in Cherkasy, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr and Kharkiv oblasts.

Reaction (machine translated):

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has threatened Russia with “expanding the geography” of long-range strikes.

Zelensky wrote about this in his telegram channel after the stavka meeting.

“Russian oil refining is already paying a significant price for the war and will pay even more. We have defined tasks to expand the geography of our long-range range, ” the Ukrainian president said.

I seriously doubt that these people are sane.

Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:

• Oct 20 – Emmanuel Todd – The Institutionalized Europe Is Far-Right
  Related:
  – “Europe’s latest intelligence fakes.” – The Floutist
  – EU Declares War On Its Own Members – Simplicius
  – The Final Split: How Europe Broke Apart Over Gaza – Fair Observer
  – “It’s not about security, it’s about control” – How EU governments want to encrypt their own comms, but break our private chats – Tech Radar

• Oct 21 – EU-NATO Retreats From ‘Ukraine Is Winning’ To Begging For A Ceasefire
  Related:
  – Western Analysts Continue to Push Delusions About Russia – Sonar21
  – New sanctions and weapons will not stop Russia. It’s time for Ukraine’s allies to change their flawed strategy – Guardian
  – NATO secretary general says Putin is “running out of money, troops and ideas” – Ukrainske Pravda, Oct 26 2025
  — How Russia, And Putin, Are Weaponizing, Losing And Running Out Of … Everything – MoA, Jun 3 2022
  — Russia Is Running Out Of [Whatever The Media Claim] – MoA, Jun 26 2022
  — Russia, Having ‘Run Out Of Missiles’, Launches Barrage On Ukraine – MoA, Oct 10 2022

• Oct 23 – Trump Fails To End His Proxy War With Russia
  Related:
  – Successful long-range test of Burevestnik – Russian Forces
  – Rubio’s Skepticism of Russian Spin Spurred US Shift on Putin – Bloomberg via MSN
  – Hungary’s Foreign Minister: Trump Is Ukraine’s Only Hope for Peace – American Conservative
  – Trump may not follow through on Russian oil or Tomahawk – Indian Punchline
  – Will America’s new sanctions on Russian oil force a peace deal? (archived) – Economist
  – Japan Pushes Back on U.S. Pressure to Halt Russian Energy Imports – Oil Price

• Oct 24 – EU Commission Plan Of ‘Russian Assets’ Loan To Ukraine Ends In Defeat
  Related:
  – German business association criticizes EU plans for Russian assets – DPA
  – The Canadian behind the West’s massive sanctions on Russia says it’s time for Round 2 (Mar 2024) – Politico
  – European leaders are unable to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia yet unwilling to face the political consequences of peace in Ukraine – The Peace Monger
  – Von der Leyen and Costa fail to cash in on Trump smacking Putin – Politico
  EU chiefs lost some credibility when they failed to get a deal to fund Ukraine using Russian assets. 

• Oct 25 – Trump Targets Venezuela
  Related:
  – Inside Marco Rubio’s Push for Regime Change in Venezuela – Drop Site
  – Officials, locals undercut Trump claims about Venezuela drug boats (archived) – Washington Post
  – On Ukraine and Venezuela, Trump needs to dump the sycophants – Responsible Statecraft
  – Norwegian Peace Council Will Not Celebrate María Corina Machado’s Nobel Peace Prize – Orinoco Tribune
  – U.S. Sanctions Colombia’s Leader, One of President Trump’s Harshest Critics (archived) – NY Times

—
Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2025-248

One never know how serious Trump’s ‘leaked’ plans are. Their purpose often seem to be solely to increase pressure on opponents, to move things into a direction he likes. If that does not work the plans may just be discarded. Or may, just may, be carried out.

Trump considering plans to target cocaine facilities inside Venezuela, officials say – Politico

President Donald Trump is considering plans to target cocaine facilities and drug trafficking routes inside Venezuela, though he has not yet made a decision on whether to move forward with them, three US officials told CNN.

Outward signs on Friday pointed toward a major potential military escalation, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordering the Navy’s most advanced aircraft carrier strike group currently stationed in Europe to the Caribbean region amid a massive buildup of US forces there. Trump has also authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela.

The president has not ruled out taking a diplomatic approach with Venezuela to stem the flow of drugs into the US, two officials said, even after the administration cut off active talks with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in recent weeks.

Venzuela is, as Politico points out, not known for drug trafficking. It does not have ‘cocaine facilities’. But it does have the largest oil reserves in the world. That has always made it a target for a U.S. regime-change operations.

But Venezuela is also a huge country double the size of Iraq with a mountainous and often densely wooded countryside. The U.S. military is unable to invade, occupy and control it.

But what the U.S. might want to try in Venezuela is a variant of the Israeli plan for Iran.

A decapitation strike killing President Maduro and the military leadership accompanied by a bombing campaign to take out air defenses and primary defense units. Meanwhile the CIA and special forces will have to work on the ground in Caracas to organize local thugs for an assault on the main government sites and radio/TV buildings.

As soon as those are captured the U.S. selected regime-change puppet, as identified by the Nobel Peace Prize committee, can declare herself president.

The rest is just media work. Unless – and that is a big question – there will be some real resistance.

The Venezuelan Bolvarian movement can motivate its youth to resist the U.S. coup even a well planned operation may end up like the Bay of Pigs.

A month ago I discussed a new hair-brained scheme by which the EU would confiscate Russian government money parked in Belgium.

The Russian money would be used to finance a EU ‘reparation loan’ to Ukraine which would only have to be paid back when Russia would pay war reparations to Ukraine. That at least was the official pronunciation which turned out to be a quote obvious fake.

Another Crazy Idea On How To Steal Russia’s Assets: Make EU Taxpayers Pay For It

A look into the details left many question which no one had answered:

Why would this scheme, as [German Chancellor] Merz say, ‘require budgetary guarantees from member states’? Doesn’t that mean that the tax-payers of those member state will eventually have to pay it? Who’s money is at risk when Russia wins its litigation? Who pays if something goes wrong?

Russia will of course never pay reparations to Ukraine. Nor would the loan be spend on repair or rebuild things in Ukraine. Instead the money would be used to buy weapons from Europe to continue the war for another two years.

The whole idea was a scam. Merz or others did no say so directly but in the end it would obviously be EU taxpayers who have to pay for the ‘loan’.

Earlier this week a Financial Times column confirmed (archived) my interpretation of the deal:Cont. reading: EU Commission Plan Of ‘Russian Assets’ Loan To Ukraine Ends In Defeat

It there any politician who is less reliable than U.S. President Donald Trump?

At the August summit in Anchorage with President Vladimir Putin of Russia Trump had aimed at a ceasefire along the frontline in Ukraine. But Putin made clear that the war required a long term solution of the underlying problem, NATO enlargement, and that a preliminary ceasefire would not be helpful in that regard. Russia also demanded full control of the Donbas and other regions.

Trump did agree to that and announced it as the brilliant result of the talks. This was his first turn on the issue.

But Ukraine’s (former) President Zelenski rejected any retreat from the regions Russia intends to acquire. European politicians, who fear losing the war against Russia, chimed in. Republican war hawks in Congress likewise put pressure on Trump.

A month after the talks in Alaska Trump again changed his position. This was his second turn. He criticized Putin and threatened Russia with new sanctions. Talk about sending Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine crept up.

A day before Zelenski was supposed to visit the White House Putin preemptively intervened by holding a phone call with Donald Trump. There followed another, the third, change in mind. Trump announced that there would soon be another summit. The Kremlin was more cautious with that claim. It said that a summit would need extensive preparation.

The Europeans, Zelenski and Republican hawks immediately renewed their campaign against any agreement with Russia.

A phone call between the Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov followed. After the call any further preparations for another summit were called off.

Trump turned again – the fourth time – and again demanded a ceasefire in Ukraine. The Russians said that this constitutes a breach of the agreements reached during the Anchorage talks.

While Trump nixed any talk of Tomahawks for Ukraine he lifted restriction on Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles (archived) to be fired into Russia:

The unannounced U.S. move to enable Kyiv to use the missile in Russia comes after authority for supporting such attacks was recently transferred from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon to the top U.S. general in Europe, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, who also serves as NATO commander.

The U.S. also issued sanctions against two major Russian oil companies (archived) and their subsidiaries:
Cont. reading: Trump Fails To End His Proxy War With Russia

This war will be won on the battlefield. Ukraine will prevail and rise back even stronger – WeAreUkraine, Apr 10, 2022

“This war will be won on the battlefield,” said [EU foreign policy chief Josep] Borrell on Twitter. “Ukraine will prevail and rise back even stronger. And the EU will continue to stand by you, every step of the way.”

Speech by President [of the European Council] Charles Michel to the Verkhovna Rada in Kyiv – Consilium, Jan 19 2023

We are determined to help you win on the battlefield. When President Zelenskyy called me on February 24th, he said, “Charles, we need weapons, we need ammunition”. Three days later, we formally decided to provide lethal equipment to a third country for the first time in the history of the EU.

Boris Johnson vows Ukraine ‘will win’ as he visits Kyiv on two-year anniversary of war Independent, Feb 24 2024

Mr Johnson said: “On this grim second anniversary of Putin’s invasion I am honoured to be here in Ukraine. With their indomitable courage I have no doubt that the Ukrainians will win and expel Putin’s forces – provided we give them the military, political and economic help that they need.”

Ukraine Must Win, Regain Full Territory: Germany’s Merz – Kyiv Post, Jan 21 2025

Merz said he wants peace in Ukraine but not “at the price of submission to an imperialist power” and stressed that “Ukraine must win the war.”

“To me, winning means restoring territorial integrity,” said Merz, whose conservative CDU-CSU is leading in polls ahead of Germany’s Feb. 23 election. “Winning also means that Ukraine must have complete freedom to choose its political and, if necessary, military alliances.”

A few months later … and the delusion of ‘winning’ is gone …
Cont. reading: EU-NATO Retreats From ‘Ukraine Is Winning’ To Begging For A Ceasefire

In his latest essay Emmanuel Todd compares the various -isms of foregone and current times:

Hitlerism, Trumpism, Netanyahuism, Le Penism, Macronism

Two of many good points deserve to be highlighted. The first in on Trump’s active service for Zionism which is in fact anti-semitic:

In my opinion, Trumpism’s radical pro-Israel stance masks a visceral and vicious anti-Semitism: the identification of all Jews with Netanyahuism, a truly monstrous historical phenomenon and a cancer in Jewish history, will only serve to renew the Nazi conception of a monstrous Jewish people. I am talking here about anti-Semitism 2.0.

Another, totally different point to highlight, is his analysis of European centrism à la Macron:

Some European middle classes between the [world] wars went mad. The working class was more reasonable. But are today’s middle classes, particularly the upper middle classes, reasonable? Are they peaceful? What are their dreams?

They are crazy. The construction of a post-national Europe is a delusional project when one considers the diversity of the continent. It has led to the expansion of the European Union, cobbled together and unstable, into the former Soviet space. The EU is now Russophobic and warmongering, with its aggression renewed by its economic defeat at the hands of Russia. The EU is trying to drag the British, French, German and many other peoples into a real war. But what a strange war it would be, in which the Western elites have adopted Hitler’s dream of destroying Russia!

The comparison by social class therefore allows us to make a major intellectual breakthrough. Europeanism, and therefore Macronism, fall, through their external aggressiveness, on the side of nationalism, on the side of the pre-war far right. If we add to this the increasingly massive and systematic violations of freedom of information and popular suffrage within the EU, we come even closer to the notion of the far right. Founded as an association of liberal democracies, Europe is mutating into a far-right space. Yes, the comparison with the 1930s is useful, even indispensable.

In the grandiose Europeanist project, we find a psychopathological dimension already observable in Hitlerism: paranoia. Europeanist paranoia focuses on Russia. Nazi paranoia made the Jewish threat a priority, without however neglecting Russian Bolshevism (known as Judeo-Bolshevism).

Todd goes on to expand on that by looking at the irrational European Union reaction to the war in Ukraine. A bizarre reaction that is destined to destroy the EU itself.

In his latest part of his argument on why the EU needs to be dismantled Thomas Fazi makes a somewhat related point:

It is worth stressing that the European Commission, led by von der Leyen, played a crucial role in devising the sanctions regime against Russia and ensuring the bloc’s alignment with (or better, subordination to) the aggressive US-NATO strategy. By using the Ukraine crisis to surreptitiously broaden the powers of the Commission, at the expense of the Council and member states, von der Leyen was able to assume the role of de facto “commander in chief” of the Union, ensuring a much more hawkish response — and a much more destructive economic blowback — than a more consensual intergovernmental approach would likely have led to. In other words, the search for the underlying structural causes of the EU’s lack of competitiveness leads us once again right back to… the EU itself.

The question left about the EU is how to peacefully end it.