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When The Pentagon Shifts Its Priorities Will U.S. Strategy Follow?
Is this a sign of a shift in the global U.S. strategy?
Politico reports:
Pentagon plan prioritizes homeland over China threat This marks a major departure from the first Trump administration, which emphasized deterring Beijing.
Pentagon officials are proposing the department prioritize protecting the homeland and Western Hemisphere, a striking reversal from the military’s yearslong mandate to focus on the threat from China.
A draft of the newest National Defense Strategy, which landed on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s desk last week, places domestic and regional missions above countering adversaries such as Beijing and Moscow, according to three people briefed on early versions of the report.
The move would mark a major shift from recent Democrat and Republican administrations, including President Donald Trump’s first term in office, when he referred to Beijing as America’s greatest rival. And it would likely inflame China hawks in both parties who view the country’s leadership as a danger to U.S. security.
“This is going to be a major shift for the U.S. and its allies on multiple continents,” said one of the people briefed on the draft document. “The old, trusted U.S. promises are being questioned.”
The National Defense Strategy (NDS) is written by the office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy which currently is held by arch-Realist Elbridge Colby.
The draft of the new NDS seems to be a contradiction of his previous believes:
Identifying as a realist, Colby believes China is the principal threat faced by the United States. He believes the US should shift its military resources to Asia to prevent a Chinese takeover of Taiwan. Colby supports reducing military aid to Ukraine. During the AUKUS review in 2025, Elbridge pressured Australia to confirm what role it would play in a war with China over Taiwan.
Colby wants to change U.S. defense policy from concentrating on China, as he had previously argued, to the Western Hemisphere. He may have seen new facts that have moved his opinion.
The failed attempt by the U.S. Navy to secure shipping through the Red Sea against attacks by Houthi in Yemen may have caused such rethink. As may have the loss of the US/NATO's proxy war against Russia in Ukraine.
Or did he compare videos of the 'woke' U.S. military parade in Washington DC (vid) earlier this year with the recent flawless one in China (vid)? The difference was indeed glaring. It demonstrated that the U.S. has no chance of winning in a war against China.
Trump seems to concede that China is winning:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump – Sep 04, 2025, 22:14 UTC
Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China. May they have a long and prosperous future together! President Donald J. Trump
It is difficult to believe though that the Trump administration will be able to change U.S. grand strategy. Any change will typically happen only at a snail's pace. It would need all party support over multiple administrations. The pivot to Asia was launched by the Obama administration in 2010 and has since has been followed by all later ones.
More from Politico:
Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s policy chief, is leading the strategy. He played a key role in writing the 2018 version during Trump’s first term and has been a staunch supporter of a more isolationist American policy. Despite his long track record as a China hawk, Colby aligns with Vice President JD Vance on the desire to disentangle the U.S. from foreign commitments.
Colby’s policy team is also responsible for a forthcoming global posture review, which outlines where U.S. forces are stationed around the globe, and a theater air and missile defense review, which takes stock of U.S. and allies’ air defenses and makes recommendations for where to locate American systems. The Pentagon is expected to release both reviews as soon as next month.
It is expected that the new global posture review will move U.S. military resources from Europe, and probably also from Asia, back to the States.
But a shift in resources may well be all that there is.
Over the last year the U.S. has urged its 'allies' to invest more in defense than previously. Moving U.S. resources away from where allies take over is not a real change of strategy.
The U.S. pulls back from Ukraine but pushes the Europeans to continue the war against Russia. The general aim of 'weakening Russia', thus stays the same.
So while U.S. military resources are shrinking or shifting to geographically more nearby issues the overarching grand strategy aim, the achievement of global U.S. primacy, may well stay the same. It is just that other are pushed to carry a bigger burden for it. Colby's pressure on Australia and Japan is pointing that way.
@c1ue, replies interleaved.
c1ue: The explicit bargain between the Chinese government/CPC and the population is that life will keep getting better in return for said government staying in power.
Western people seem to think mainland Chinese are like the overseas Chinese immigrants from the previous waves: they totally are not.
I am not saying that revolution occurs overnight if China gets blockaded, but I am also not saying it is impossible. The CPC has massive food stocks for a reason…
tom: the link I included few posts up pointed out the (few) areas where China’s domestic food production has gaps .vs. consumption. They are few; veg seeds, sorghum (used to sweeten (add carbs) to animal feed, and for sugar) and soybeans. Soy is used mainly for animal feed, and can be fed directly to humans (tofu, etc.). If you feed soy to humans .vs. animals, you get a 3:1 (pigs) or 6:1 (beef) increase in direct-to-humans nutrition. There’s room to reduce consumption of soy a lot. Point: China’s food-import needs are not that big a deal. They produce a lot of food now, and what they don’t product they can substitute-around. Contrast: UK, for ex.
c1ue: As for your comments on blockades: If the Houthis could effectively blockade the Suez Canal and the Red Sea using drones, US submarines would do far, far worse.
tom: Yes, subs can do a lot of damage, of course. But with underwater drones, and ship-lanes concentrated (they are), the subs start taking a lot of risk. If you can saturate the ship-lanes with drones that can sense for subs … there aren’t that many subs, and drones are (relatively) cheap to produce. Imagine that undersea drones do what air-based drones and missiles do: they vastly reduce the efficacy of “big hardware”. My point there is that China has a lot of engineers and mfg’g cpy; they’re likely to take the lead in undersea drone innovation. Repeat: there aren’t _that_ many subs in U.S. fleet. Dozens, not hundreds or thousands.
So what about land-based anti-ships? Well, will the BRI players around China’s major ship-lanes let locals launch ship-killers? Likely not; that’s their commerce getting sunk.
Next up: the U.S.’ Pacific fleet is based in Philippines and Japan. Bases well-known. Drones. So, taking out a few subs, taking out a few ship-based anti-shiping platforms, and the game changes considerably.
This is not a slam-dunk for the U.S. to interfere with China shipping. Now add in Russia. Are they going to stand idly by and let all that happen? Likely not.
Next: as another poster upstream commented, the interior BRI routes are designed from the git-go to bypass / supplement sea commerce. Another wrinkle.
One more: Most U.S. west-coast commerce comes out of LA, Portland, and Seattle. What works for the goose (U.S. interfere with China shipping) can be readily applied by China to U.S. How’s the hinterland going to respond to no export revenue for wheat, soy, corn? How about a few LNG fireworks in the Atlantic? Good for goose…
I grant the points others have made re: U.S. mostly self-sufficient for food, energy, materials. Big advantage. But this is why the West tried so hard to separate China and Russia. Now there’s Russia-China .vs. U.S. parity on mat’ls, energy, and food (remember, Russia produces a lot of food!).
Where’s the frontier of the game? Innovation. Who’s innovating, and likely to innovate more? I bet China and Russia .vs. U.S. so long as U.S. stays fixated on financialization and oligarchy/concentration of wealth, and the “prevent others from being successful” .vs. “make yourself successful” strategy.
And the U.S. / West still has not made the turn from the interference game to the innovation/creation game. Got many more years to go, and we’re still stifling dissent and doing major resource mis-alloc.
c1ue: And they don’t need to focus on a specific area – the US has massive space, air, sea and land surveillance capability such that anti-shipping submarine warfare would be absolutely devastating.
China does not have a comparable global or even regional capability outside of their immediate neighborhood.
Europe would be screwed by a blockade, so would Walmart but the US overall? Not clear at all.
Tom: Agree that at the moment, China can’t project much outside immed. But ask yourself: how much addn’l gear do they need to do undersea drone warfare? I say “not that much beyond what they already know; add in Russia, and probably got all they need right now”. It’s a “how fast can you produce” issue. China can innovate and produce pretty fast.
Meantime, the U.S. has its own problems: MAGA is also about “feeding the middle class”. How are we doing, c1ue? This is the core motivation for MAGA, and as we often discuss, this “has a ways to go”. And it’s not off to all that great a start at the moment. But like to you said, and I agree, it’s “not clear at all” how this will play out.
I say it comes down to how fast the respective cultures adapt to circumstance, and on that dimension, I vote China. Remember, I vote China only because I think they’ve got their act together better than U.S., and certainly _not_ because that’s what I want. What I want is for our leadership to get the ()&*&) out of the way, and for the _people_ to bust out of their lethargy, and decide to actually _be somebody useful_.
Then I’ll be waving the U.S. flag again. Right now … not so much.
=== Separately … in the brief moment that seer wasn’t giving himself whiplash with self-congratulatory bows, he did accidentally make a useful point: China has a water shortage in the north and western segs of their country. Guess what? They’re addressing it. The U.S. has the same problem (southwest, northern plains) and _isn’t addressing it_. Do your research before you respond, seer.
OK, c1ue, your serve. Looking forward to the rebuttal.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Sep 7 2025 1:06 utc | 198
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