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Ukraine’s Victory Redefined
In November 2022 the (former) President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelenski published a 10 point 'peace plan'.
It included:
5. Restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity and Russia reaffirming it according the U.N. Charter, which Zelenskiy said is "not up to negotiations".
6. Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities, restoration of Ukraine's state borders with Russia. … 10. Confirmation of the war's end, including a document signed by the involved parties.
In September 2024 Zelenski raised the curtain of his Victory Plan for Ukraine. As I wrote at that time:
The 'victory plan' is not about a real plan for Ukraine's action but a list of demands towards the 'western' supporters of Ukraine.
The theory in Kiev is that a fulfillment of these demands will allow Ukraine to win the war and to press Russian into accepting Ukraine's 10 point 'peace plan'.
As explained by a Zelinski advisor:
A source close to Zelensky told the Kyiv Independent that the "victory plan" aims "to create such conditions and such an atmosphere that Russia will no longer be able to ignore the peace formula and the peace summit." … "The problem is, to get to that point where we have any sort of peace negotiations, Russia must feel like they're going to lose, and we are not there yet," Rep. Jimmy Panetta, a Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee in Congress, told the Kyiv Independent.
"I hope part of this victory plan is how we can shape battlefield conditions to reach that point," said Panetta, who met Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials in Kyiv last weekend.
I commented that:
The 'victory plan' requests are of course outrageous and delusional and have little to no chance to be fulfilled.
Nearly a year later the delusional demands of the 10 points 'peace plan' and the Victory Plan have made room for more realistic expectations. There will be no NATO or EU membership for Ukraine. It will lose a significant part of its land to Russia and will have to settle the war under Russian conditions.
Zelenski seems to now acknowledge that when he redefines what victory means:
Zelenskyy spoke to ABC News Chief Global Affairs Correspondent Martha Raddatz Friday in an interview that aired on ABC News' "This Week" on Sunday. … Asked by Raddatz what victory looks like for his embattled country, Zelenskyy said the survival of Ukraine.
"Putin's goal is to occupy Ukraine," Zelenskyy said.
"[Putin] wants, of course, to occupy us totally. For him, this [is] victory. And until he can do it, the victory is on our side," he said. "So that's why for us to survive is a victory. Because we are surviving with our identity, with our country, with our independence."
There is zero evidence that Putin's, or -more correct- Russia's goal was or is to occupy Ukraine.Russia wants to liberate the Russian population that, since the 1990s, was trapped in east Ukraine. He wants to prevent that Ukraine joins NATO. Neither requires the Russian army to move into the feverish anti-Russia center and western parts of Ukraine.
But it is of course convenient to claim that and to declare victory even after the government has moved to Lviv (aka Lvov, Lemberg) near the Polish border and called it a day.
I just wonder how the population there would react if Zelenski or his successor were then to arrange a well deserved Victory parade.
Yes, well, what Zelensky thinks is of some interest, but his opinion is not very important overall.
The situation is this, WWIII, the redivision of the world, has begun. The US is the declining power whose relative industrial position no longer is sufficient to support its hegemony. It’s primary foe, socialism, seemingly suffered a conclusive defeat with the fall of the USSR. But the US has still lost ground, particularly to PRC. (The US ruling class overall is not deceived by propaganda about how PRC is just another capitalist, even imperialist country, even when it spews out that nonsense itself.) The restoration of empire is being pursued by novel means, hybrid warfare, not least because it is an effort financia and economic warfare, subversion and assassination, and novel political/diplomatic means, with indispensable military force judiciously applied on local scales so as to avoid a general war—which its relative decline makes ever more unsustainable.
What this means in this case, is Ukraine is a local hotspot, a mere proxy war, against Russia, which is itself a target for even more exploitative reign of capital, but as the strategic rear for PRC. (Ideological claptrap about the heartland or other geopolitical superstitions may play a role in the deranged thinking of the chieftains of the empire. A crazy system drives the leaders crazy too.) A so-called peace in Ukraine is not a peace with Russia. What Zelensky says must be weighed in relation to the overall hybrid WWIII and it current expression in war against Russia (and ultimately PRC, DPRK, Cuba, Venezuela and so on, not to mention the class war against the American people as a whole.) Our host likes to support Trump in less obviously servile ways. At this point, there is no genuine evidence suggesting that Trump is seriously pursuing peace with Russia. Nor is there any genuine evidence to believe the Russians, or Putin if you insist on personalizing, are intent on some sort of parody of the 1939 Non-Aggression Pact, where it suddenly switches sides, but this time against socialism (aka PRC.) Putin making a deal with the West would be much more like Vichy France. I will say I believe that the notion that Trump is making peace if he doesn’t directly offer massive sums to the Ukrainians or offer direct US military guarantees somehow counts as a peace program is merely apologetics. Trump shoving the burden to allies he openly treats as the vassals they have been, is not peace.
As for the matter being arbitrated by arms? So far as I can tell, the Russians still do not have the numbers sufficient for massive rapid offensives. The Ukrainians still have no path to victory and are suffering significant attrition, but given the relative lack of Russian numbers and the importance of tactical air (primarily drones) as the decisive arm, rather than infantry much less armor, the inevitable collapse of Ukrainian lines can be whole years in the future. It’s not likely to be tomorrow. Possibility is not probability. There are inevitable distortions in the Russian economy due to the war. As the economic and political pressures induced by these distortions continue, the likelihood of sudden political change in Russia does increase. The oligarchs supposedly tamed by Putin for one will be driven back into the dangers of political intervention I think.
Despite our host’s optimism, I think Zelensky’s words are not even a swallow, much less a spring.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Sep 8 2025 19:12 utc | 90
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