News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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September 21, 2025
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-216
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“Does this mean Germany is preparing for 250 to 500 dead per day in case of conflict with Russia?”
If they are, it seems like a large underestimate to me. If they do enter into a conflict with Russia, they don’t just have to count front-line fighters. They will be declaring war, and if they do that, the rest of the poodles are not obliged to bark.
If they do this all airbases (excluding perhaps, US facilities), manufacturing plants, power utilities, oil pipelines etc. will also be dealt with. Not to mention government buildings. It won’t be like Ukraine, where Russia is doing its best to avoid civillian deaths – a war with Germany would involve a very sharp, hard, deep and massive strike to discourage the rest. Oreshniks all over, and more.
Actually, although Merz likes to mouth off, I don’t think he is clinically insane, as he would have to be to do something so crazy.
Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Sep 23 2025 8:47 utc | 196
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Great comment!
Except that you didn’t mention the possibility that Merz isn’t acting according to his own knowledge and conscience.
Which is entirely possible if you view his life story neutrally. After Merkel politically shot him down, HE actually didn’t know what to do with Germany anymore. And only after she resigned did he reappear and try to stand out.
It’s entirely possible that he was “installed,” considering his 180-degree turn after the successful election regarding his promises and goals… not to mention his left-wing coalition partner.
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And will they manage to ban the AfD? Then new elections won’t be called in Germany! No, their seats in the Bundestag will simply be removed. The CDU (ergo Merz) will therefore immediately no longer have a majority in the Bundestag. On the contrary, from this day on, Red/Red/Green will determine what is and isn’t decided.
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Therefore, the CDU, which currently holds the chancellorship, is digging its own grave with the election of the judge candidate for the Supreme Court proposed by the Reds. Because this judge poses the danger that the AfD will actually disappear…and the CDU will then be the only remaining conservative party in the Bundestag.
Question:
What would prevent this…this political upheaval…TRUE “A war”? If so, what would a war do…Blackrock, the company where Merz made his millions…because there are reasons why he’s hiding his assets.
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As for the possible arrival of Orishnick on German soil, these elites have long since left the danger zone of Germany/France, etc., and therefore, perhaps precisely because of this, they are no longer 250 meters underground. They will cite the fact that this is no longer a safe haven for the government and the general staff as the reason for directing and monitoring everything from outside; the lower ranks are allowed to perish.
Posted by: Genesis | Sep 23 2025 13:09 utc | 201
@Barrel Brown | Tue, 23 Sep 2025 00:56:00 GMT | 187
If another Orishnick is furred then we may at least get some better ideas of its real nature and the type of warheads used- I very much doubt they rely on kinetic energy or “conventional” chemical explosives for their destructive power.
This wonderful and bold argument clearly wins you a MoA Prognostication Medal! The jury was unanimous about the ribbon, too.
Please consider to follow our invite to give a speech at the regular bi-annual meeting of the Jury after the next hazelnut strike, we would love to hear your story.
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He’s not entirely wrong.
The West provoked the deployment enough to get another opportunity to observe the measurements, etc.
And I believe some fake information must have flowed into the intelligence services that high-ranking officials were making plans in bunkers somewhere, or that secret weapons were being built 100 meters underground.
NATO was informed about the launch at the time, but, arrogant as they are, they laughed until they lost it.
There are still no pictures from either Russia or Ukraine, nor anything that has been leaked to the Western or Asian press…strange!
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For your information, I still have some contacts with old colleagues in Russia. But the Hazelnut weapon was never widely publicized even there; some have never heard of it, and the sons of two of them are serving on the front…even there, it was only heard via Telegram channels.
Feedback geben
Posted by: Genesis | Sep 23 2025 13:21 utc | 202
Germany will not go to war against Russia, this is neither realistically possible nor desired. [1] The plan is pretty clear by now:
1. Use the external enemy Russia to increase domestic pressure.
2. EU is in a position where the current leaders cannot change course (a new crop, assume Orbans all over the place, could perhaps but even then there’s the question how far they’d get — transatlanticism is deeply rooted in the entire super structure).
3. More precisely, almost all EU member states and EU itself is fragile, unpopular and weak. If you assume (as I do) that the main goal of any (sufficiently large) institution is to survive then the current hysteria is part of a desperate plan to keep EU from blowing apart. An actual war does not help this purpose; permanent war propaganda does.
I believe we’ll see the EU dismantling soon (talking years here). It doesn’t have to be catastrophic but it could. Props go to Russia and China, acting like adult, as ever.
[1] I’ve said before that a party may start a losing war, and that can indeed happen. It’s also true that the destruction following a war is a good thing for certain capital and policy factions. But a “small war” a la the Israel-Iran 12 days conflict is too small. And a big war is just not possible: not enough soldiers.
Posted by: Konami | Sep 23 2025 13:23 utc | 203
[1] I’ve said before that a party may start a losing war, and that can indeed happen. It’s also true that the destruction following a war is a good thing for certain capital and policy factions. But a “small war” a la the Israel-Iran 12 days conflict is too small. And a big war is just not possible: not enough soldiers.
Posted by: Konami | Sep 23 2025 13:23 utc | 203
Believe me, more than the absolutely necessary number of soldiers is no longer necessary in today’s wars.
In special cases, a single decision is enough to at least trigger a chain reaction.
A downed jet, regardless of which side.
A tanker caught on fire.
A crashed ICE train with Russian passports found.
An exploding truck in Moscow.
Not to mention Sylenski attacking the nuclear defense program again; the last time alone would have been enough.
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One missile is enough. The hardliners in the Kremlin are getting louder, as are the calls from the people on the streets in Russia. One reason why the Russian leadership isn’t making the drone attacks on the St. Petersburg airfield (small drones) a headline.
Röber from Anti-Spiegel reports that the Russian leadership is keeping this out of the headlines… after all, how far is Estonia from St. Petersburg, about 85 km as the crow flies?
Let’s hope Russia continues to react prudently, but beware if something happens that hurts the public.
It “ALMOST” doesn’t need soldiers; one missile is enough for the global economy to stagnate; two and it collapses. The result will be unrest, hunger, a lack of medicine, etc., and millions, if not billions, of deaths outside of Europe. Europe itself is of little interest; the rest of the world’s population can happily do without Europe (Western Europe). Western Europe alone accounts for less than 6% of the world’s population, and Western Europe grows NOTHING or produces NOTHING that humanity needs.
It just occurred to me, the rest of life experience; I’m old enough now. But you never stop learning.
Thanks for your explanation.
Feedback geben
Posted by: Genesis | Sep 23 2025 13:49 utc | 204
Sheikh Tamir 23.Sebtemper .25
Official statement from the Ministry of Defense on the progress of the liberation of the city of Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region:
– 5,667 of 8,667 buildings have been brought under control;
– Currently, Russian troops have blocked a large enemy group from the north and west sides, capturing it in a semicircle;
– Among those blocked are nationalists from the Freikorps, terrorists from the so-called “Russian Volunteer Corps,” and soldiers from the GUR special forces;
– A total of up to 700 people have been blocked, 250 of whom have already been killed;
– Last month, the Ukrainian armed forces lost over 1,800 soldiers, 36 tanks and other armored vehicles, two rocket launchers, and 137 field artillery pieces and mortars in the capture of Kupyansk;
– During the offensive, the tactic of “underground landing” via supply lines was used;
– Kupyansk is a key logistics hub where numerous railway lines and roads intersect, and supply routes for the entire Group of Ukrainian Forces run along the eastern bank of the Oskol River.
– The city also enjoys an advantageous defensive position on both banks of the Oskol River, one of which is located on a hill, and the river itself and its floodplain represent an additional barrier to advancing troops.
– Almost every building in the city is a well-equipped and protected long-range firing range, and the city itself has been transformed into a “fortress” using reinforced concrete structures and minefields.
– Control of Kupyansk by the Russian Armed Forces will enable the further development of an offensive deep into the Kharkiv region, including towards Izyum and Chuguyev.
– Furthermore, the capture of Kupyansk will open a direct route from the south to Vovchansk, enabling the troops of the “North” Group advancing from the north to counter the attack.
– Furthermore, the capture of Kupyansk will accelerate the establishment of control over Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, key defensive positions of the Ukrainian armed forces in Donbas.
Posted by: Genesis | Sep 23 2025 13:55 utc | 205
Posted by: Paranaense | Sep 23 2025 11:51 utc | 200
Well, I agree with you there. Quantum theory is just a bunch of symbols which co-relate to a bunch of observations. But it is not a mode of reality, as practised by physical creatures.
Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Sep 23 2025 19:12 utc | 206
Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Sep 23 2025 19:12 utc | 206
“Well, I agree with you there. Quantum theory is just a bunch of symbols which co-relate to a bunch of observations. But it is not a mode of reality, as practised by physical creatures.”
Without hard data it’s all just theory. That’s why Schrödinger’s cat seems like such a great metaphor.
Posted by: Paranaense | Sep 23 2025 19:25 utc | 207
What could be more terrifying than the President of Russia, in the midst of a war in Ukraine against the US, NATO, and the entire Western sphere, acting sweet and nice, talking about wanting to be friends and partners again, and suggesting cooperation and compromises?
Posted by: Sam | Sep 23 2025 1:37 utc | 190
He also wants to unilaterally extend Start one more year after it expires, a gesture of goodwill to make it easier for Us to strike first.
These all suggest to me the losses are well above 100k and he can’t justify them with anything, there is no safety, no liberated areas, nothing. and the budget must be tortured as well. Looking at the new Ukr terrorist attack a few days ago it seems there was no lesson learned from the cluster beach event, and no punishment again. it looks like classic behavior from a politician when internal support is low, that’s all. The population won’t comment, they’re not stupid to want to die for Gerasy in artillery duels and door to door fights with zero results.
Another cringe moment at Trumpy’s speech, where he said that bioweapons are bad and wants US to control them everywhere with ai, or something like that. This is cringe because Putin completely forgot about his previous US biolab problem, exactly since Kirillov was killed, while no Us biolab was closed, at least not publicly. When you cry every day about something, woukd you not announce if the problem was solved? He did another nato expansion trick here, where he only complains but that’s all. The pressure to quit from Chinese side must be high too, US and China have the world to split now, Russia only moved from a provider of free energy to Nato, to a provider of free energy to China, so the smo really has no reason to continue. If he doesn’t quit soon, there is no problem for US to wait just a few years until elections come and Putin is “naturally” removed. By that time Putin would have annoyed his fans for not winning and his haters for not quitting faster, a win-win option for nato.
Posted by: rk | Sep 23 2025 19:54 utc | 208
Posted by: Paranaense | Sep 23 2025 19:25 utc | 207
Jams is a classic neoliberal MSM-television watcher who supports all the stupid stuff that the old-fashioned “real” leftists never supported. Things like one-way open immigration for the cheap labor, trannies, and Rainbow flags, etc etc. He is, to my eyes, just another caricature. That’s ok.
Posted by: ThouShalt | Sep 24 2025 3:37 utc | 209
We have to acknowledge that a lot of people from across the political spectrum recognize the giant Elephant in the Room. The clearly visible continuity of imperial agenda and lust for war. What I never see, much to my consternation, is any kind of effort to reconcile these differences and to try to create an effective coalition of action.
Posted by: ThouShalt | Sep 24 2025 4:05 utc | 210
Russia is doomed. Trump has just declared 200％ war support for Ukraine until Russia is overthrown.
Posted by: Surferket | Sep 24 2025 6:13 utc | 211