Nearly two weeks ago I wrote about the four Ukrainian cities which are about to fall to the Russian forces:
The political chaos in Kiev is reinforced by the catastrophic situation on the battle field. There are four significant population centers which are likely to fall under Russian control within the next month.
bigger1. Kupiansk …
2. Siversk …
3. Konstantinivka …
4. Prokovsk (pre-war population 85,000) – Ukrainian defense lines around and within the city have broken down. Russian forces are already in the city. Supply and exit routes to the north and west are barely passable.
The Ukrainian forces lack infantry. Some Ukrainian brigades have less than 100 people to man several miles long defense lines. There is a severe lack of mortar and artillery ammunition. The Russian side has more and better drones available in higher numbers. The recent re-organization of the Ukrainian army into corps sized structures has only increase the organizational chaos.
The Ukrainian army, like the Ukrainian state, is in the process of falling apart.
Recent developments confirm that take.
During the last three days Russian forces achieved a major breakthrough. After the heavy bombardment of Ukrainian positions with over 1,300 FAB bombs Russian detachments moved north of the salient (green) they had built between the semi-encircled cities Pokrovsk and Konstantinivka.
They have reached and breached the well built second Donbas fortification line (in yellow) which had been dug over the last year.
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The Ukrainian supply line along the T-05-14 road between Dobropilla and Kramatorsk has been cut. Beyond that line is open space.
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Ukrainian sources confirm the breakthrough (machine translation):
Yesterday, Ukrainian military telegram channels, as well as AFU fighters, began to write massively about the Russian breakthrough to the north of the Pokrovskaya agglomeration – in the direction of Dobropillia.
As a result of an 11-kilometer (according to Ukrainian data) dash, the Russians came out to the northeast of Dobropillya, cutting the road to Kramatorsk and Konstantinovka.
Judging by the reports of Ukrainian publics, the problem is the lack of personnel and "false reports" to the top about the state of defense near Dobropillya. Russian military telegram channels write that this area was covered by [territorial forces] – since more experienced units are holding the front near Pokrovsk.
At the same time, the battles are already taking place in a fairly deep rear, where there is no organized line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It should actually be built "from the wheels", transferring reserves. There are already predictions in the Ukrainian public that if the situation is not urgently corrected, the Russians will be able to break through the front and enter the operational space. And Ukraine will lose hundreds of square kilometers of territory a day, as it did in the first weeks of the invasion.
This was the inevitable consequence of the war of attrition waged by the Russian forces. Ukrainian brigades, which nominally had some 3,000 soldiers, are down to 10-20% of their original strength. Many men have died or were wounded. A significant number, reportedly more than 100,000 since the start of the year, have simply gone home or fled.
Newly arriving mercenaries are get killed (archived) before they arrive on the battlefield:
At least a dozen foreign volunteers in Ukraine’s military were killed late last month when a Russian missile struck a training camp’s mess hall during lunchtime, in one of the deadliest attacks on foreign fighters of the war, according to soldiers with knowledge of the incident.
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After the explosion, dead and dismembered bodies and gravely wounded soldiers were lying on the ground near the mess hall, he said. He saw at least 15 dead soldiers and more than 100 others who were wounded, he added.
Prepared ditches and other positions are no longer manned. Russian troops can infiltrate through the thinly manned lines. Ukrainian drone units, which are supposed to cover the holes in the frontline, are getting suppressed by Russian bombing and counter drone forces. Confusion sets in once Russian diversion teams appear in the rear.
The Ukrainian army has ordered parts of its 'elite' Azov forces from Izyum in the north towards the Pokrovsk area to counter the Russian breakthrough. They will be too little too late to make a difference.
The only Hail-Mary move that could still makes sense is a full 20 kilometer deep retreat from both cities to behind the second defense line. This would shorten the front and allow for a more densely manned defense line.
The Ukrainian command is unlikely to order that move.