News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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August 24, 2025
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-192
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Hey, small country whose armed forces have been decimated after three-and-a-half years of war, why haven’t you attacked Russia yet, a nuclear super power many times your size-? Whatsa matter—-ya chicken-?
Oh, okay—-you’re saying Joe held you back, eh, disallowing an escalation against a military juggernaut which might necessitate bringing in more than the level of support and backing the U.S. and NATO were willing to do-?
You’re saying that Ukraine’s command of its very own army was actually a myth? That a committee of NATO leading lights directed battlefield strategy far from the front, in Wiesbaden, Germany, where guys in neatly pressed khaki dress unis—-looking stract!—-dashed through PowerPoint slide-decks in air-conditioned conference rooms-?
Fact is, the U.S. and NATO were comfortable letting you, small country, fight to the Last Ukrainian (TM) so long as that did not in any way obligate the U.S. itself *publicly* to commit troops to the LOC.
The sad fact of your proxy-hood, small country, meant you had to dance w/ the one who brung you: Joe & Collective Biden brung you in 2022, and they aimed to keep you kitted-out *just enough* to give Russia a fight.
*Winning* was never part of the equation, on account of Russia’s battlefield superiority—-the point was to stall the enemy, thwart the enemy, draw matters out as long as possible.
That’s still the goal.
You’re a small country who has seen desertions and a KIA/WIA/MIA figure upwards of one million, and you cannot defeat Russia. But the good news is, you don’t have to. You can throw monkey wrenches into the works until such a time that quite literally the very Last Ukrainian (TM) suits up and presses whatever button a NATO technician points to, so that the *fig leaf* of scrappy Ukrainians fighting Russia will remain plausible.
Meanwhile, small country, the only way to retain sovereignty is to make independent decisions for yourself, don’tcha know. So do what you do, no one’s going to decide anything about Ukraine without including Ukraine in the decisions, no one’s gonna tell you what to do. Keep in mind, though, that “it is very hard if not impossible to win a war without attacking an invader’s country.”
Wink, wink, nudge, nudge.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Posted by: steel_porcupine | Aug 24 2025 12:41 utc | 1
(Again submitted to a closed thread.)
I see Mearsheimer mentioned from time to time in the comment section of “b’s” site. Not always with approval.
A great man. Courageous. Those qualities concealed behind an amiable civility that as far as I have seen never falters. There’s a video somewhere of him cheerfully setting out his thesis in front of a roomful of scowling academics and coping with some aggressively hostile critics without turning a hair. Not a lot of people could do that.
Also an impeccable scholar in his field: big picture examination of Great Power relationships. My view, he gets an awful lot wrong when he strays out of his field into area studies, area studies being a subject he leaves to other specialists. That’s why he states his predictions have only a 70% probability of being right. Local factors can sometimes skew the picture.
That’s important when considering the current war. Yes, Mearsheimer’s master of the background to the conflict: the creeping encirclement of Russia by a hostile NATO. I’ve never seen him faulted there. But to go on from there and argue that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a response to that creeping encirclement leads us to a fundamentally flawed picture.
That invasion of Ukraine, the SMO, was a response to a real and present danger – the possibility of the Kiev forces getting into the Donbass and the certainty of subsequent mayhem if they did so. There’s any amount of evidence that Putin didn’t want to invade, had no need to apart from that threat of a Kiev incursion, and took every opportunity before and after February 24th 2022 to avert that threat by other than full scale conflict.
As Strobe Talbot is reputed to have said at the time, we had Putin “cornered”. Any military response from Russia to the Kiev threat on the LoC and bang! The Sanctions from Hell that we confidently expected to bring down his administration and possibly the RF with it. But no military response – and mayhem in the Donbass. That would also have brought down his administration: there were plenty in Russia who thought Putin too soft as it was. Allowing mayhem in the Donbass would have confirmed that view and delegitimised the Putin administration.
Not a good idea to corner the most powerful military in the world. That’s why I call this the FAFO war. We fooled around on the LoC and are now finding out the consequences.
And that’s why the Mearsheimer explanation for the SMO is wrong. Plain wrong. Putin and his fellows didn’t come into work one morning and think “This NATO expansion’s getting a bit much. Let’s invade Ukraine to push it back.” They thought “We’re a day or so away from disaster in the Donbass. Never mind the sanctions threat. If we don’t move now the ultras will be running riot in the Donbass and it’ll be a devil of a job getting them out.”
So not the overall NATO threat, serious though that threat was. Not the Mearsheimer thesis. That was the background to the conflict, not its primary cause. It wasn’t that overall NATO threat that pushed the Russians into moving at that time and in that place. More the drumbeat of artillery fire building up on the LoC and the Russian military response to what that drumbeat meant.
Of course the conflict’s ballooned since then. Wars usually do. The Russians are now after a lot more than just averting the threat to the Donbass. They’re after an overall security settlement. That takes them right into the territory Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs, and Chas Freeman and Ray Mcgovern and a host of other fine analysts, are so much at home in. But unless we understand why those Russian tanks rolled across the border on February 24th 2022 we cannot deal with the crucial question. Was this war “provoked” or “unprovoked”. And until that crucial question is resolved we in the West will always get this war wrong, even many of us who are opposed to it.
That’s why I believe Mearsheimer is more obstacle than help when examining the SMO. It does not, however, detract from my admiration for him. As with all these big name authorities, you just have to take the best and leave the rest.
And Mearsheimer’s best is a remarkable achievement. He’s been pointing out for years that Western policy towards Russia is dumb. And recently he’s been coming out with trenchant criticism of what we in the West are up to at the moment. In particular, his heartfelt condemnation of the atrocities in the Middle East places him to my mind on the side of the angels and puts his courage past doubt. Those atrocities are the shame of the West. Those public figures who dare speak out against them merit only our respect.
Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 24 2025 12:46 utc | 2
Mmmh, I think i’ts clear the Russians invaded the Ukraines to revert the advance of NATO, to turn the tide back, and that’s the reason the West reacted so emotionally and irrationally.
If it was just about the people in the Donbass, as you seem to be saying, then our leaders would’ve been oblivious. But our leaders reacted with fanatical zeal, they teared garments and fell to their knees crying and whining loudly, then rolling on the floor shitting and vomiting for better theatrics, even shunning Russian cats from cat peagants, which indicates they understood something big was forthcoming, Putin was turning back decades of careful, peaceful annexations.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Aug 24 2025 13:02 utc | 3
Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 24 2025 12:46 utc | 2
Sorry, forgot to say I was replying to you above in #2
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Aug 24 2025 13:03 utc | 4
Good time to everyone, I hope this bastard gets what he deserves soon.
Zelensky decided to joke about Ukraine’s strikes on the Druzhba oil pipeline.He was asked whether these strikes increased Ukraine’s chances of lifting the veto from Orban regarding Ukraine’s EU membership.”We have always supported the friendship between Ukraine and Hungary, and now the existence of this ‘Friendship’ depends on Hungary,” said Zelensky.
Posted by: Sany Dnepropetrovsk | Aug 24 2025 13:23 utc | 5
Ukraine Weekly Update: Weekly Update, 22nd August 2025: May be Useful to Some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-and-world-affairs-weekly-639
Posted by: The Busker | Aug 24 2025 13:30 utc | 6
Re: Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 24 2025 12:46 utc | 2
Not a good idea to corner the most powerful military in the world. That’s why I call this the FAFO war. We fooled around on the LoC and are now finding out the consequences.
And that’s why the Mearsheimer explanation for the SMO is wrong. Plain wrong. Putin and his fellows didn’t come into work one morning and think “This NATO expansion’s getting a bit much. Let’s invade Ukraine to push it back.” They thought “We’re a day or so away from disaster in the Donbass. Never mind the sanctions threat. If we don’t move now the ultras will be running riot in the Donbass and it’ll be a devil of a job getting them out.”
So not the overall NATO threat, serious though that threat was. Not the Mearsheimer thesis. That was the background to the conflict, not its primary cause. It wasn’t that overall NATO threat that pushed the Russians into moving at that time and in that place. More the drumbeat of artillery fire building up on the LoC and the Russian military response to what that drumbeat meant.
Of course the conflict’s ballooned since then. Wars usually do. The Russians are now after a lot more than just averting the threat to the Donbass. They’re after an overall security settlement. That takes them right into the territory Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs, and Chas Freeman and Ray Mcgovern and a host of other fine analysts, are so much at home in. But unless we understand why those Russian tanks rolled across the border on February 24th 2022 we cannot deal with the crucial question. Was this war “provoked” or “unprovoked”. And until that crucial question is resolved we in the West will always get this war wrong, even many of us who are opposed to it.
So many problems with what you say here.
1. ” The Most Powerful Military in The world!!”. – And yet – after 3.5 years this military has failed to even fully liberate Donetsk – ostensibly the primary reason for this conflict in the first place!
Hardly the performance of ” The Most Powerful Military in the world!!”.
2. The Ukrainians have been running riot in Donbass for the past 3.5 years – and still are!!
Problem completely NOT SOLVED.
3. The conflict has ballooned since then?!? No – Russia was asking for security guarantees and the roll back of NATO in 2021 – before this stepped up conflict started!!
Russia were ignored in 2021 with these demands – and largely still are.
Why is Russia ignored? Because they have failed to prosecute a clear victory on the battlefield and after 3.5 years are still bogged down in Donetsk.
4. Obviously the conflict was provoked – everyone knows this – how else can one explain the planning involved to blow up Nord Stream II – which was obviously planned in the knowledge there would 100% soon be a very deliberately provoked conflict in Ukraine to use as a handy pretext to blow up the gas pipeline.
It was all planned out.
Anyone who doesn’t understand and accept that is too thick to even bother talking to about this issue,
Posted by: Julian | Aug 24 2025 13:32 utc | 7
English Outsider @2:
NATO’s proximity most definitely played a deciding role. After all, what was Russia’s response to the Empire’s destruction of Yugoslavia? Libya? Nothing whatsoever and there are plenty of the Empire’s fascist scum rampaging there. Even NATO’s attack on Syria only provoked a lukewarm and halfhearted response from Russia, and these were all stepping stones towards global hegemony. Indeed, Russia itself is just such a stepping stone, but they were too self-absorbed to see that until the Empire reached their doorstep. That they were so nonchalant as to let the Empire take Syria so easily even suggests their self-absorption continues to blind them to what they are truly up against.
Everything Russia has done is just reaction to the Empire. It is the Empire that is leading in this dance, but perhaps that was your point.
Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 24 2025 13:49 utc | 9
Zelensky spewing propaganda about taking Crimea, no doubt the nefarious British are pulling his strings from behind the curtain.
“Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky has rejected US calls to withdraw its claim to Crimea or make any territorial concessions to Russia.
In a speech marking Ukraine’s Independence Day on Sunday, Zelensky vowed to retake the peninsula, which is predominantly populated by ethnic Russians and overwhelmingly voted to join Russia after the 2014 Western-backed coup in Kiev. He also pledged to reclaim the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, which, along with Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions, joined Russia in 2022 after referendums.
“Here at the zero kilometer, this is a starting point where distances to Ukrainian cities are marked – to our Donetsk, our Lugansk, our Crimea,” Zelensky said in an address filmed at Kiev’s Maidan Square, the site of the Western-backed 2014 coup. “All of this is Ukraine… and no temporary occupation can change that. One day… we will be together again as one country. It’s only a matter of time.””
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Aug 24 2025 13:58 utc | 10
William Gruff@9……smack the nail on the head why don’t you……Since the minute BoJo showed up in Kiev Russia’s brains fell out it’s arse…..hasn’t got a fucking clue where to turn…..and now, the part I love, Putin at some point will have to sit across the table from Tiny Dancer……talk about rubbing shit in his face……
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 24 2025 14:03 utc | 11
A good opportunity for a two-pronged attack to finish Ukraine off.
“Ukraine has told Minsk to stay away from its borders during upcoming joint military exercises with Russia to be held in Belarus. The warning came ahead of the ‘Zapad-2025’ military drill, scheduled for September 12–16.
Belarus allowed Russian forces to use its territory when the conflict with Ukraine escalated in February 2022. Since then, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has repeatedly said that Minsk has no intention of attacking Kiev and will only resort to military action if his country is attacked
In a statement on Friday, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry accused Belarus of aiding Moscow and issued a caution.
“We warn Minsk against reckless provocations and urge it to remain prudent, refrain from approaching the borders, and avoid provoking Ukraine’s Defense Forces,” Kiev’s Foreign Ministry has said.
This year’s military exercises, which include counter-sabotage operations, drone warfare, electronic interference scenarios, and assaults, will also feature the Russian Oreshnik intermediate-range hypersonic missile, according to Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin. First battle-tested in November 2024 in a strike on Ukraine’s Yuzhmash facility in Dnepr, Russian officials have compared its conventional destructive power to that of a low-yield nuclear strike.”
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Aug 24 2025 14:03 utc | 12
At what point will the vassals figure out the DMZ will be from Settin to Trieste ?
Posted by: Exile | Aug 24 2025 14:04 utc | 13
20+ years ago the USA ‘invaded’ Iraq, via the bogus War on Terrorism.
In Europe, Tony Blair was a committed supporter / partner / even instigator (? other discussion) of the US ‘invasion.’
Gerard Schroeder and Jaques Chirac opposed it. Berlusconi PM of Italy sort of skirted around, but tried (afaik) to dissuade Bush on this..
The USA then set in stone the slogan, NEVER AGAIN.
Europe would have to be dominated totally – a first aim, the split, the antagonisms, even to war, on the European continent, would have to be, between W Europe and Russia.
Top of the list, to cut Germany with its industrial might / base, and domination to the East (via the EU) off from Russia. (Such collaborations, coop., synergies, would be more powerful than the US in a flash.)
It worked so well, that today Europe is supporting a super weak, sure to fail + be destroyed spear against Russia, UKR.
Europe (1) is now positioned against its natural ally / partner / main trader on the continent, Russia. Doing absolutely everything possible to ‘diminish, weaken, attack’ Russia and to ‘support’ UKR and so on, as under orders (fear of… manipulation by..) the USA.
After making a big show of loathing Trump as a loathsome character, an authoritarian right-winger, etc. heh, they now bow down and act out as servants on a hasty visit -> better to not have gone at all.
NATO is also dead in the water, has been so for decades, how is it that one NATO member destroys pipelines of another? (US-D, Nord Stream.) NATO is a fig-leaf to keep some on board. Everyone knows this but the pretense is kept up.
1. ‘Europe’ => not united – exceptions / divergents exist, see Hungary for ex.
Posted by: Noirette | Aug 24 2025 14:05 utc | 14
Well we all know the IAEA head Grossi, is a Mossad puppet, so don’t expect too much to happen, eventually the Neo-Nazi’s will get lucky and blow up a nuclear power plant, maybe in Kursk or it might be the ZNPP, which they’ve tried to blow up on countless occasions.
“The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is “aware” of reports about a fire at the Kursk nuclear power plant (NPP) in Russia, which it said started due to “military activity.”
Russian officials earlier said that the plant, located about 50km from the border with Ukraine, had been targeted by a drone raid.
Air defense forces overnight reportedly intercepted a Ukrainian UAV which detonated on impact near the Kursk NPP, damaging an auxiliary transformer and triggering a fire, which was later put out.
“Radiation levels at the site and in surrounding areas remained unchanged,” a statement on the NPP’s official Telegram channel read.
While no casualties were reported, the NPP had to decrease the load on one of its three working units by 50%, officials said.
In a post on X on Sunday, the IAEA stopped short of assigning the blame, saying only that it “is aware of media reports that a transformer at the Kursk NPP in Russia has caught fire due to military activity. While the IAEA has no independent confirmation of these reports, [Director General] Rafael Grossi stresses that ‘every nuclear facility must be protected at all times.’”
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Aug 24 2025 14:07 utc | 15
You can have them, but we tell you when you can fire them.
“The US has approved the sale of 3,350 air-launched ERAM cruise missiles to Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, citing two unnamed US officials.
The munitions, which have a range of up to 280 miles, will reportedly arrive in Ukraine within six weeks. Several US officials told the WSJ that Ukraine would have to seek the Pentagon’s approval when using them.
While US President Donald Trump had criticized the previous administration of Joe Biden for its unconditional aid to Kiev, he said earlier this week that Ukraine has “no chance of winning” unless it is capable of striking targets in Russia. Ukrainian troops have been steadily losing ground to Russian forces over the course of 2025 and struggled to replenish their ranks.”
And just for good measure.
“The Pentagon has blocked Ukraine from striking deep inside Russia with American-supplied missiles, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported Saturday, citing US officials.
According to the paper, the Department of Defense has been preventing Kiev from firing long-range ATACMS missiles since late spring. On at least one occasion, Washington reportedly turned down a Ukrainian request to hit a target on Russia’s internationally recognized territory.
The WSJ linked the policy shift to President Donald Trump’s effort to “entice” Moscow into peace talks. Last week, Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time since 2019 and several days later held talks with the leaders of Ukraine, NATO, the EU, and several European states in Washington.”
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Aug 24 2025 14:10 utc | 16
vargas@10….why? Really, why? Because some Russian Oligarchs own much of 404 infrastructure….who blows up their own stuff……most certainly not the Russians!
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 24 2025 14:14 utc | 17
Mearsheimer has been pointing out for years that Western policy towards Russia is dumb.
English Outsider | Aug 24 2025 12:46 utc | 2
DOW over 45k, home prices never higher. How is the imperial strategy ‘dumb’? If Russia had lost, I would have been leveraged 20:1.
Instead, as it became apparent over 2 years ago that we lost, I completely de-levered and own everything 100% outright.
You can’t say a plan is stupid if by all appearances there’s a high probability of success. Ukranian Slavs backed by NATO forces and the global banking system? Are you fucking kidding me?
It’s only in hindsight that there are any regrets. Regardless, all the action currently in play is to deal with the current reality that Russia won. So, serious props to them – it’s why they are now treated with respect.
The furious moves to solidify the Americas, especially N America (ie Canada and Greenland) and of course the blue cities and states via military occupation, along with cutting a 3-way deal to divvy up the globe is where anyone paying attention should be looking.
Once again, B should create a recurring USA thread
Posted by: Markw | Aug 24 2025 14:32 utc | 18
Posted by: Julian | Aug 24 2025 13:32 utc | 7
2. The Ukrainians have been running riot in Donbass for the past 3.5 years – and still are!!
Problem completely NOT SOLVED.
I call you a liar.
3. The conflict has ballooned since then?!? No – Russia was asking for security guarantees and the roll back of NATO in 2021 – before this stepped up conflict started!!
Russia were ignored in 2021 with these demands – and largely still are.
And that the reason the SMO goes on and it goes on successfully.
Why is Russia ignored? Because they have failed to prosecute a clear victory on the battlefield and after 3.5 years are still bogged down in Donetsk.
I call you again a liar. And one who does not understand the Russian mentality and strategy. They are fighting not only against Ukraine.
4. Obviously the conflict was provoked – everyone knows this – how else can one explain the planning involved to blow up Nord Stream II – which was obviously planned in the knowledge there would 100% soon be a very deliberately provoked conflict in Ukraine to use as a handy pretext to blow up the gas pipeline.
And here you need a calendar. NS2 was blown 7 months after the begin of the SMO. What triggered the SMO was the planned attack of the Donbass for the 8th of March.
Anyone who doesn’t understand and accept that is too thick to even bother talking to about this issue,
Which defines you as a concern troll.
Posted by: Naive | Aug 24 2025 14:40 utc | 19
Because some Russian Oligarchs own much of 404 infrastructure….who blows up their own stuff……most certainly not the Russians!
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 24 2025 14:14 utc | 18
Of course you are unable to provide names. Fucking liar!
Posted by: Naive | Aug 24 2025 14:44 utc | 20
@17
To strap ERAM onto an aircraft requires installing interfacing hardware and software onto the hosting aircraft.
This is not trivial and the interface kit is unique to the aircraft itself.
EU F-16 might need kit development.
Also! Targets for ERAM will come directly from US intel assets, managed out of U.S. European Command, using funds from Biden’s last gift package and surcharge from Trump gifts.
ERAM strikes are wholly US operated.
Posted by: paddy | Aug 24 2025 14:45 utc | 21
Posted by: vargas | Aug 24 2025 13:54 utc | 10
You are a fucking cretin. Russia blew up a big refinery in Kremenchug just a few days ago:
Overnight, Geraniums attacked the oil refinery at Kremenchuk along with other targets in Kharkov and Sumy. 30 drones attacked Libny in Poltava and many more attacked Ukraine’s gas infrastructure.
It was covered extensively in the media, and the quote above is from Rob Campbell’s substack, which he faithfully updates every week and which you obviously are too slow to read or understand.
And don’t give us any shit about the refinery being owned by Russian oligarchs … it was a joint venture between the Ukrainians and the Azerbaijanis. In fact, Azerbaijan is quite pissed about it.
it’s time for you to take your tired act somewhere else, vargas. We all see how you lie.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Aug 24 2025 14:54 utc | 22
@paddy | Aug 24 2025 14:45 utc
The first question came to mind when I read:
“The US has approved the sale of 3,350 air-launched ERAM cruise missiles to Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, citing two unnamed US officials.
was:
“what aircraft are going to launch these, and from what airbase will they emanate, and then what target will they attack?”
And how many days after Ukrainian planes take off from a location will that location still be functional?
What this does do, tho, is to require the Russians to move AD systems up closer to the Line of Contact, and that adds some operational overhead and … creates nice targets for these cruise missiles.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 24 2025 14:57 utc | 23
ERAM strikes are wholly US operated.
Posted by: paddy | Aug 24 2025 14:45 utc | 22
Bye bye to peace nobel prize, welcome to war nobel prize!
Posted by: Naive | Aug 24 2025 15:01 utc | 24
@ English Outsider | Aug 24 2025 12:46 utc | 2
thanks for articulating all that.. there was one crackpot poster at moa dissing him.. everyone ought to ignore that un named poster..
@ Noirette | Aug 24 2025 14:05 utc | 15
well said noirette…it makes no sense on the surface… europe has a knack for shooting itself in the foot..
Posted by: james | Aug 24 2025 15:03 utc | 25
@24
Think V1 and V2.
A tiny fraction of what US needs to run a counter value air bombardment campaign.
Trump runs established US for profit blow things up clown show.
Posted by: paddy | Aug 24 2025 15:03 utc | 26
“it’s time for you to take your tired act somewhere else, vargas. We all see how you lie.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Aug 24 2025 14:54 utc | 23
The ‘cretin’ isn’t worth your time; everyone knows he is just a mendacious moron so no one takes him seriously with the possible exception of vargas’s mother.
Posted by: canuk | Aug 24 2025 15:07 utc | 27
“And Mearsheimer’s best is a remarkable achievement. He’s been pointing out for years that Western policy towards Russia is dumb. And recently he’s been coming out with trenchant criticism of what we in the West are up to at the moment. In particular, his heartfelt condemnation of the atrocities in the Middle East places him to my mind on the side of the angels and puts his courage past doubt. Those atrocities are the shame of the West. Those public figures who dare speak out against them merit only our respect.”
Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 24 2025 12:46 utc | 2
Agreed
Posted by: canuk | Aug 24 2025 15:09 utc | 28
Around 10 Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s Ust-Luga port and the Novatek terminal near St. Petersburg early this morning, sparking large fires visible for miles.
The port, a critical hub for energy exports and sanctions evasion on the Baltic coast, handles up to 13 million tons of LNG annually. The damage could cost billions.
https://nitter.poast.org/MonitorX99800/status/1959630638467723355#m
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Aug 24 2025 15:11 utc | 29
Europe’s actions appear to be completely nonsensical if taken at face value, but i always like to remember that European advancement to a federal, centralised single state is done through crisis and emergency rather than democracy and honesty.
I couldn’t say if the plan is to have an actual war with Russia or just use the threat of one, but it seems that we are very close to the final endgame now:https://www.politico.eu/article/mario-draghi-eu-donald-trump-geopolitics-central-bank-power-influence/
“Europe is ill-equipped in a world where geo-economics, security, and stability of supply sources, rather than efficiency, inspire international trade relations,” Draghi, also a former Italian prime minister, warned. “Our political organization must adapt to the demands of its time when they are existential.”
Returning to his familiar call to boost Europe’s competitiveness, Draghi noted that the International Monetary Fund estimates that if EU internal barriers were reduced to the level prevailing in the U.S., the bloc’s labor productivity could be about 7 percent higher after seven years.
Posted by: Occasional poster | Aug 24 2025 15:31 utc | 30
The ‘cretin’ isn’t worth your time; everyone knows he is just a mendacious moron so no one takes him seriously with the possible exception of vargas’s mother.
Posted by: canuk | Aug 24 2025 15:07 utc | 28
—————————————————
Aren’t you the guy who sometime last year told someone to quit ‘vargasing’, along with a few other choice terms?
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 24 2025 15:50 utc | 31
I am glad to see Mercouris clearly state that Zelensky will never compromise, regardless of public opinion, regardless of losing Donbass. Finally, someone realizes and admits this. Want peace? Remove him at gunpoint, that’s it, period.
Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 24 2025 15:55 utc | 32
I couldn’t say if the plan is to have an actual war with Russia or just use the threat of one, but it seems that we are very close to the final endgame now:https://www.politico.eu/article/mario-draghi-eu-donald-trump-geopolitics-central-bank-power-influence/
Posted by: Occasional poster | Aug 24 2025 15:31 utc | 31
————————————————————–
There has been talk for some time over creating an EU Army. It still does not exist and countries with different languages are already having fun in the NATO games.
The ‘lingua franca’ (all pun intended) across Europe is English, not French. I went to give a briefing at AirBus in Toulouse once. The entire group of different nationalities spoke English, not for my sake.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 24 2025 15:56 utc | 33
@English Outsider
I recommend you read this piece by Barry Posen (who agrees on this point with Mearsheimer):
Putin’s Preventive War: The 2022 Invasion of Ukraine – Open Access
Abstract
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine is consistent with the logic of preventive war. States often initiate wars because they fear the consequences of a shifting balance of military power and thus strike to forestall it. They fear that, once the balance changes, the rising power may either attempt to coerce them, or initiate war later under much more favorable circumstances. The tendency to consider preventive war is exacerbated if the declining state also sees itself as having a special, and fleeting, window of opportunity to prevent the shift. This essay reviews a range of evidence to argue that Vladimir Putin likely viewed Russia’s strategic situation through a preventive war frame. NATO membership for Ukraine would shift the balance of power against Russia, and U.S. and NATO military cooperation with Ukraine intensified during the Joe Biden administration. These developments likely convinced Putin that he did not have much time to forestall Ukraine’s NATO membership.
But that fact that this was/is a preventive war did not determine the date when it began.
The obviously upcoming Ukrainian storm on Donetsk was the issue that led to the start of the war on Feb 24 2022.
As Posen writes:
One caveat is in order. A preventive war theory cannot explain the exact moment when a war begins, and I do not try to do so. Instead, it indicates whether the state faces a growing incentive to act. These pressures mounted in the years immediately preceding the war, as Geoffrey Roberts demonstrates in his perceptive treatment.
Other pieces by Posen are also recommendable.
This (archived) from July 2022(!) in Foreign Affairs:
Ukraine’s Implausible Theories of Victory
The Fantasy of Russian Defeat and the Case for Diplomacy
With the Serebrianksy forest area now cleared, there are no Ukrainian forces left in the Luhansk Oblast, save maybe a few Rambo types still dug in deep in forests. They’ll no doubt want to be out of there before the colder weather sets in.
So, 100% liberation of Luhansk, happy Ukrainian Independence Day!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkQqlJQ2N64
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Aug 24 2025 16:04 utc | 35
” After all, what was Russia’s response to the Empire’s destruction of Yugoslavia? Libya? Nothing whatsoever and there are plenty of the Empire’s fascist scum rampaging there. Even NATO’s attack on Syria only provoked a lukewarm and halfhearted response from Russia,
Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 24 2025 13:49 utc | 9″
Wait till you see their (non)reaction when Venezuela gets wacked.
Posted by: The painter | Aug 24 2025 16:12 utc | 36
re: Republicofscotland | Aug 24 2025 15:11 utc | 29
It appears to me that Russia is faced with constant drone attacks on its infrastructure, and occasionally on its strategic nuclear bombers and Early Warning Radar facilities.
I don’t see how such attacks can be allowed to continue indefinitely. I don’t think the Russian people will stand for it. So, what exactly does Russia have to do to put an end to this?
Posted by: Perimetr | Aug 24 2025 16:25 utc | 37
The ERAM project was conceived in 2024 (sic) as a response to the war in Ukraine. US defense planners tasked manufacturers with producing a weapon capable of striking deep behind enemy lines, while keeping costs low and production timelines fast (sweet dreams)
IOW not tested not produced not operated – ideal weapon for 404
Posted by: sh0tek | Aug 24 2025 16:27 utc | 38
Many of the most “prolific” commenters eagerly anticipate and openly praise the benefits of a societal collapse of western civilization. The near simultaneous collapse of the economies of North & South-America, Europe and about 40-45% of Asia’s economy…a real $h!t-show.
While I may critique these embittered souls for not thinking-through/understanding what such a societal collapse could/would entail for the little-people around the globe…billions of people out of work, without any income, cut off from essentials for decades. And I note, this is an optimistic scenario, many of these “dark-age” collapses have lasted centuries, some close to a millennium.
Even countries being targeted by the predatory practices of, for lack of a better term, Milton-Friedman’s-concept-of-capitalism, would much rather see reformation to it’s alternative, a “dark-age” collapse.
All that said; a serious article entertaining just that thought was published and I’d like to hear what the conscientious people at MOA think of it, particularly those familiar with Soviet dissident Andrei Amalrik’s body of work. I am not familiar with Amalrik’s work and so reserve any opinion on the matter.
https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2025/08/how-great-powers-fall-apart.html
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia-fsu/how-great-power-falls-apart
Also helpful is the exercise of self-control by those who know nothing of the matter but feel compelled to remark with pointless comments such as “well, if it’s published by “So & So”…it must be garbage“. That type of commentary, verbal-effluent, doesn’t contribute, it detracts. Please make an effort to control yourself.
Posted by: S Brennan | Aug 24 2025 16:28 utc | 39
@ English Outsider | Aug 24 2025 12:46 utc | 2
“If we don’t move now the ultras will be running riot in the Donbass and it’ll be a devil of a job getting them out.”
If the above is true, yes the SMO has been a huge success for Russia thus far. The notion that they were forced into reacting at the last minute does explain a lot of the bizarre head-scratchers from the early days. Very small forces moving in without support, not shaping the battlefield with mass artillery and airstrikes in advance, unsupported units charging in piecemeal with unclear orders besides “go here” leading to very mixed results. And of course, in flying by the seat of your pants they took big risks and had some big losses. Not taking Kharkov, then losing a ton of territory in the second half of 2022 (a lot of which has still to be retaken, 3 years later) are clear examples of that. But for all that, big picture their wins have been:
1) Pre-SMO territory, in particular Donetsk, Lugansk and Crimea are no longer under direct threat from multiple hostile fortresses within spitting distance of major cities and transport corridors. All of said hostile fortresses that were right at the LOC have since been taken.
2) Donetsk is no loner within range of ANY tube artillery systems. This often gets downplayed but it’s a huge deal in so many ways.
3) The conversation has changed in the West from “when will we get back Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk?” to “we will not surrender more of our territory without a fight!”- There is presently not one circle of power who are seriously considering or believe it to be possible that the pre-SMO breakaway territories can ever be returned to Ukraine. Before, this was a real belief with serious preparations and resources spent towards exactly that.
So on those 3 areas, Russia has won and won big. No arguments! And yes, Mearsheimer is an amazing human being who handles criticism and no end of mud-slinging with a level of grace and tact that few of us could ever dream of.
While there have been some big wins for the RF, they have made mistakes. Not fatal, but still a few cringeworthy moments. Biggest one for me was legislating that Kherson and Zaporizhia are now fully part of the Russian Federation. Donetsk and Lugansk? Yes absolutely. I understand that -part- of Kherson and Zap are necessary from a practical standpoint to secure land access + buffer zone to Crimea. That could have been dealt with outside of changing the Constitution to include them. Now that they’ve done that, it makes everything so much more difficult to resolve.
Posted by: Clown Shoes | Aug 24 2025 16:29 utc | 40
I don’t think the Russian people will stand for it. So, what exactly does Russia have to do to put an end to this?
Posted by: Perimetr | Aug 24 2025 16:25 utc | 37
#######
Nothing.
While I have never lead a country or been at war, one cannot surrender the initiative to every provocation.
That is true in a schoolyard as it is in a SMO.
Until Ukraine can push Russia out of Crimea, all of this is noise. It is, “how the sausage is made”.
Nothing meaningful has changed and based on real limits, nothing is likely to change.
Death rattles can be fearsome but at a safe distance are harmless.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 24 2025 16:35 utc | 41
Posted by: S Brennan | Aug 24 2025 16:28 utc | 39
#####$
The West doesn’t have a civilization, it has OnlyFans, drag queen storytime, and sex trafficking.
It is the Weimar Republic on a grand scale.
Degeneracy, debt, and delinquency.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 24 2025 16:40 utc | 42
Can any nation whose cherished leader was best friends with a pedophile and sex trafficker claim to have a civilization?
The US is an infant when compared to Russia which is an infant when compared to China and Persia.
The West is a murderous delusion not unlike how Israelis see themselves.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 24 2025 16:44 utc | 43
The painter @36: “Wait till you see their (non)reaction when Venezuela gets wacked.”
Venezuela might not be too easy to whack. There is substantial organic opposition to US interference in the population. The government has been rooting out US agents as well, so there isn’t such a large faction inside that can sabotage Venezuela’s defense. Certainly some, but hopefully not enough to make it easy for the Empire. A standard color revolution and terrorist attacks won’t work. It will take US boots on the ground, and that would get ugly for the Empire.
I agree, though, that Venezuela shouldn’t depend upon anything from the Russians once the shooting starts. They are an unreliable and irresolute ally, as we saw with Syria and Iran. Only national interests that are as immediate as the nose on their face has any chance of getting Russia to commit. My hope is that Venezuela has been focusing on developing their relationship with China instead.
Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 24 2025 16:48 utc | 44
But unless we understand why those Russian tanks rolled across the border on February 24th 2022 we cannot deal with the crucial question. Was this war “provoked” or “unprovoked”. And until that crucial question is resolved we in the West will always get this war wrong, even many of us who are opposed to it.
Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 24 2025 12:46 utc | 2
You know Mersheimer does say that Russia was provoked? All the analysts you mentioned do.
In fact, even the Shachtmanites of the SEP admit as much. But the latter always follow that admission with the de rigour assertion that Russia’s invasion was nonetheless “reactionary”.
Of course, they don’t provide much explanation as to why a non Imperialist country’s effort to defend itself at the 11th hour, as you say, from a neo Nazi regime working on behalf of US Imperialism, should be considered “reactionary”. Nor do they explain why aiding Imperialist propaganda against its victim Russia is a “revolutionary” position either.
You may say who the hell cares what the SEP says. I partially agree in the sense that it is truly an unpopular and ridiculous sect. But, they are the cutting edge of fake leftism in the west.
Their arguments, weak as they are, are often taken up in one form or another when the Dems return to power in order to keep the heat on “reactionary” Russia, after the Ukraine debacle has run its course and Russia stands triumphant.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 24 2025 16:54 utc | 45
Only national interests that are as immediate as the nose on their face has any chance of getting Russia to commit. My hope is that Venezuela has been focusing on developing their relationship with China instead.
Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 24 2025 16:48 utc | 44
Unfortunately, that nationalist myopia is the Achilles heel of all the dominant parties to BRICS. Hang together or get hung one at time!
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 24 2025 16:57 utc | 46
I call you a liar.
Posted by: Naive | Aug 24 2025 14:40 utc | 20
Kudos to you. You know when to use a hammer instead of a screwdriver.
Posted by: Angwlo | Aug 24 2025 16:58 utc | 47
Vile lying spew by Canada’s PM ‘Goldman-Sachs’ Carney in Kiev:
Mark Carney in Ukraine: ‘Putin Can Be Stopped’
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/article/putin-can-be-stopped-pm-carney-delivers-independence-day/
“…Attending as guest of honour alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv’s Sophia Square, Carney described the war with Russia as a ‘maniacal quest to recreate a history filled with injustice.’
‘Putin has broken his word repeatedly, from Minsk to this morning. Putin has caused this terrible tragedy that has claimed the lives of millions. Putin menaces your skies, threatens your cities, destroys your fields.
‘Putin has stolen your children. But Putin can be stopped. Russia’s economy is weakening. He is becoming more isolated. And our alliance is hardening,’ Carney told the crowd.
‘When peace comes, we must fortify Ukraine by rebuilding your cities, expanding your industries, developing your resources, in creating the foundations for true prosperity. And when that peace comes, and it will come – that day will come – Canada will be there,’ Carney said.
In his speech, Carney once again referred to Trump as a ‘transformative’ leader. ‘I applaud the leadership of the transformative US President Donald Trump in creating the possibilities for peace,’ he said.
Speaking on background ahead of the trip, a Canadian government official said Canada is not excluding the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine in an eventual ceasefire…”
mark.carney@parl.gc.ca
Posted by: John Gilberts | Aug 24 2025 16:59 utc | 48
Posted by: S Brennan | Aug 24 2025 16:28 utc | 39
#####$
The West doesn’t have a civilization, it has OnlyFans, drag queen storytime, and sex trafficking.
It is the Weimar Republic on a grand scale.
Degeneracy, debt, and delinquency.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 24 2025 16:40 utc | 42
It has hundreds of millions of wage slaves, good people, who struggle to help their children despite being constantly attacked by “their own” government, too.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 24 2025 17:01 utc | 49
S Brennan @39: “Even countries being targeted by the predatory practices of, for lack of a better term, Milton-Friedman’s-concept-of-capitalism, would much rather see reformation to it’s alternative, a “dark-age” collapse.”
There can be no “reform” of capitalism. Rather, efforts at such reform have been a constant concern for the Empire’s strategists for over a hundred years. Such reform was what the ridiculous “DEI” experiment was all about: A kinder, gentler, and more sustainable capitalism, but of course it is doomed to failure like all other “reforms” because it ignores how capitalism necessarily works at a fundamental level.
The alternatives are:
- The slow descent into Dark Ages mkII, that you mention. This is ongoing.
- World War that destroys +70% of global manufacturing capacity (military defeat and destruction of China, basically).
- Revolution that, like the ones that transitioned humanity from economic feudalism to capitalism, elevates global economic organization from capitalism up to its next historic level.
That is a broad outline of the available options. Making capitalism economically progressive again isn’t one of them. Capitalism faces slow death, violent and massively destructive reset, or replacement with the next highest rung on history’s ladder.
Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 24 2025 17:08 utc | 50
” Even countries being targeted by the predatory practices of, for lack of a better term, Milton-Friedman’s-concept-of-capitalism, would much rather see reformation to it’s alternative, a “dark-age” collapse.
Posted by: S Brennan | Aug 24 2025 16:28 utc | 39 ”
You cant “reform” the ones that control most of the wealth of the world, the mechanisms of violence, and have no inhibitions about deploying said violence on a massive scale. Not to mention, they would lose much if true “reforms” ever came to be.
I’m surprised the fan boys of Stalin here dont understand that. Did Communism take over through reforms? Was the US established through reforms ? Did Iran throw off the “yoke” through reforms ?
Posted by: The painter | Aug 24 2025 17:09 utc | 51
DOW over 45k, home prices never higher. How is the imperial strategy ‘dumb’? If Russia had lost, I would have been leveraged 20:1.
Instead, as it became apparent over 2 years ago that we lost, I completely de-levered and own everything 100% outright.
You can’t say a plan is stupid if by all appearances there’s a high probability of success. Ukranian Slavs backed by NATO forces and the global banking system? Are you fucking kidding me?
It’s only in hindsight that there are any regrets. Regardless, all the action currently in play is to deal with the current reality that Russia won. So, serious props to them – it’s why they are now treated with respect.
The furious moves to solidify the Americas, especially N America (ie Canada and Greenland) and of course the blue cities and states via military occupation, along with cutting a 3-way deal to divvy up the globe is where anyone paying attention should be looking.
Once again, B should create a recurring USA thread
Posted by: Markw | Aug 24 2025 14:32 utc | 18
Keep worshiping the accomplished fact as though time froze last Friday night! Change is moving in a definite direction, Mark. Everyone can see which way it’s going.
If you think the desperate, insane speculation reflected by the DOW has any connection to the economic health of the deeply leveraged empire, you’re an economic illiterate.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 24 2025 17:11 utc | 52
” Venezuela might not be too easy to whack. There is substantial organic opposition to US interference in the population.
Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 24 2025 16:48 utc | 44 ”
I hope you’re right, but we’ve been down this road many times already. Many nations were supposedly going to be difficult to crack. Yet here we are.
Posted by: The painter | Aug 24 2025 17:13 utc | 53
Did Communism take over through reforms? Was the US established through reforms ? Did Iran throw off the “yoke” through reforms ?
Posted by: The painter | Aug 24 2025 17:09 utc | 51
Yes yes and yes.
Reforms come in many forms. Some of them ain’t pretty.
Posted by: hopehely | Aug 24 2025 17:21 utc | 54
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 24 2025 14:03 utc | 11
Top o’ the morn ta ya. Quaft another biscuit and inhale another Guiness.
_________________________________________________
Carney? Another WEF placeholder, financed by Brookfield/Brascan to hold the reins in Canada for the tribe.
Posted by: kupkee | Aug 24 2025 17:25 utc | 55
Hey, this is the Ukraine thread! Those who just have to say something about anything important to them but not really relevant may consider the open thread instead.
Posted by: Avtonom | Aug 24 2025 17:33 utc | 56
Once again,, the need for treaty or security guarantees and large defensive militaries disappears if everyone would do their duty and restrict the leaders of their respective nation states from using the nation state governments these leaders use to violate people’s human rights. Its that simple.. why is this so difficult to grasp?
The nation state system immunizes leaders from prosecution for their violations of human rights? ASA a person becomes a leader he or she gets a permit to use the subject nation state to hunt and kill humans? Have I got that right?
Posted by: snake | Aug 24 2025 17:45 utc | 57
Did Communism take over through reforms? Was the US established through reforms ? Did Iran throw off the “yoke” through reforms ?
Posted by: The painter | Aug 24 2025 17:09 utc | 51
Yes yes and yes.
Reforms come in many forms. Some of them ain’t pretty.
Posted by: hopehely | Aug 24 2025 17:21 utc | 54
Wrong. Try again.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 24 2025 17:46 utc | 58
In regards to Carney in 404. It is pathetic, but than again we here in Canukistan (no offense to Canuk). A cog on the collective garden waste of Atlantic ism.
Feed Carney to the pigs in the pen. Canadian parliament has been non existent since we gained the loss the favorite female Prime Minister last year.
Even if Peirce P. had won we would have the same foreign non policy being exercised by this CNE carney
Posted by: Angelo | Aug 24 2025 17:47 utc | 59
What this does do, tho, is to require the Russians to move AD systems up closer to the Line of Contact, and that adds some operational overhead and … creates nice targets for these cruise missiles.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 24 2025 14:57 utc | 23
Only if you or the Russians buy into the notion that the US will send these missiles as advertised by unnamed sources quoted in the Wall Street Journal.
And yet the sources are always unnamed because the propaganda must flow to keep the water muddy enough that no one recognizes the Truth when they actually trip over some.
To my way of thinking, and especially so in this Era of All Lies All the Time, if you can’t put your name on the claim, then it’s not worth the time you took to manufacture it.
Posted by: Nooneuknow | Aug 24 2025 17:51 utc | 60
You cant “reform” the ones that control most of the wealth of the world, the mechanisms of violence, and have no inhibitions about deploying said violence on a massive scale. Not to mention, they would lose much if true “reforms” ever came to be.
I’m surprised the fan boys of Stalin here dont understand that. Did Communism take over through reforms? Was the US established through reforms ? Did Iran throw off the “yoke” through reforms ?
Posted by: The painter | Aug 24 2025 17:09 utc | 51
Absolutely right. Only a thorough going anti capitalist social revolution can save the western countries from the rapidly approaching disaster. It starts with a class conscious, militant opposition to the Dems and all it’s fake left agencies. A true opposition to Trump just develops naturally from his own idiocy. It’s the Dems that prop him up with their bourgeois supraclass idpol and trans lunacy.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 24 2025 17:53 utc | 61
I’m going to posit a longer narrative for the Ukraine conflict, going back to the 90s.
After the fall of the Soviet Union it was triumphalism: it wasn’t that the Communists had lost it was that the US had won and now is undisputed champion. Clinton sold the public on a peace dividend as war would become cheaper and less necessary.
But what actually happened was the US MIC/deep state said “nobody can stop us”.
The ending of the bipolar frame to global relations meant that as Huntington warned, old forms of human conflict would return.
I remember a bad joke: “You hear a story of people in a UN Safe Haven have been killed. Is the story about: a) Yugoslavia/Bosnia b) Lebanon c) Sudan d) all of the above” (D)
In the Yugoslav conflict the amorality of the post war “end of history” people was on full display. Various nations supported the killing with sales or gifts of war materiel. Only at the very end was any force exerted to end the killing.
Then a series of betrayals that make it quite clear that a dangerous global race for nuclear weapons and delivery systems is rational as nation after nation is betrayed and sovereignty violated. (Libya, Iran)
WRT Ukraine pre-invasion, Minsk 1 Minsk 2, prior to that “not one inch”.
With such a record of hostility and mendacity I don’t know that I buy into political considerations specific to the Donbass as the primary motivation.
I hope this finds you well
Posted by: ockham | Aug 24 2025 17:55 utc | 62
The nation state system immunizes leaders from prosecution for their violations of human rights? ASA a person becomes a leader he or she gets a permit to use the subject nation state to hunt and kill humans? Have I got that right?
Posted by: snake | Aug 24 2025 17:45 utc | 57
That appears to be the gist of it. Man, I wish the world’s suffering populations would really see just what kind of evil monsters the West’s got running things.
Posted by: Nooneuknow | Aug 24 2025 18:02 utc | 63
@ William Gruff | Aug 24 2025 16:48 utc | 44
They are an unreliable and irresolute ally, as we saw with Syria and Iran.Text
A bizarre interpretation, considering neither of those countries even _asked_ for help. In case of Syria, both the government and the military actively refused any offer of support beyond air. Not ground force, not organizational. Iran somewhat similar.
The blame on RF for not being a “good ally” for not going to the second war against someone is rather one sided. How many troops did Iran send to Russia to fight the West? Syria? Venezuela?
Russia’s only actual ally is NK. Not even Belarus, they are more like a willing shield.
Posted by: boneless | Aug 24 2025 18:06 utc | 64
@ b | Aug 24 2025 16:03 utc | 34 with more about the preventative war theory…thanks
I keep wanting to see this all in the context of our greater global civilization war about public/private finance.
Would it be a preventative war for China to push empire out of Taiwan militarily?
What about Iran settling up with Occupied Palestine? I am in favor of this and believe it fits the definition.
Will Ukraine stay alive until the new US weapons get delivered and have a snowballs chance in hell of making a difference? I would think that the latest hit on the nuke location just might push Russia to accelerate more.
The shit show continues util it doesn’t…..
Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 24 2025 19:06 utc | 65
Posted by: S Brennan | Aug 24 2025 16:28 utc | 39
Also helpful is the exercise of self-control by those who know nothing of the matter but feel compelled to remark with pointless comments
Obviously you lack yourself self-control. What do you know of the matter? Which “matter” by the way? Nobody knows what will happen by the end of the year, what will happen by the end of next year and so on and so on. But you feel compelled to make those pointless remarks when all would be based on worthless speculations. Past is of no use, past can teach nothing about the future. The world today is completely different even from 10 years ago.
Moreover you are at the wrong place. Go to a thread “not Ukraine, nor Palestine” of fuck off!
Posted by: Naive | Aug 24 2025 19:35 utc | 66
Posted by: S Brennan | Aug 24 2025 16:28 utc | 39
Also helpful is the exercise of self-control by those who know nothing of the matter but feel compelled to remark with pointless comments
Obviously you lack yourself self-control. What do you know of the matter? Which “matter” by the way? Nobody knows what will happen by the end of the year, what will happen by the end of next year and so on and so on. But you feel compelled to make those pointless remarks when all would be based on worthless speculations. Past is of no use, past can teach nothing about the future. The world today is completely different even from 10 years ago.
Moreover you are at the wrong place. Go to a thread “not Ukraine, nor Palestine” of fuck off!
Posted by: Naive | Aug 24 2025 19:35 utc | 67
This attack in the Baltic sea must be investigated, the naval drones do not have the range to reach from Ukraine. Someone else is involved in the incident and should be taken out.
Of course they used all this shit on a refinery which is not some delicate high technology, just a boiler with valves and pipes. Sure they make a spectacle when they explode but nothing cannot be replaced in a month or so. Kind of baffling that they exposed a third county for such a pinprick attack.
Posted by: 667 | Aug 24 2025 19:40 utc | 68
*Mark Carney: ‘Canada is Answering That Call’ [See replies!]
https://x.com/MarkJCarney/status/1959590298004209773
“Ukraine is on the frontier in the struggle for freedom and sovereignty. After 3 years of war, Ukrainians urgently need more military equipment. Canada is answering that call providing $2 billion for drones, armoured vehicles and other critical resources.”
*Warmonger, corporate con-artist and imperialist rent-boy.
Posted by: John Gilberts | Aug 24 2025 19:47 utc | 69
Ok, daily update
“Ukraine loses 1,270 troops in all directions of special military operation in 24 hours”
https://tass.com/defense/2006739
Marat’s update
https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/brief-frontline-report-august-24th
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 24 2025 19:52 utc | 70
Wrong. Try again.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 24 2025 17:46 utc | 58
Not talking to you because you rude.
Now fuck off slowly, no sudden moves please.
Posted by: hopehely | Aug 24 2025 20:19 utc | 71
“[The] past is of no use, [The] past can teach nothing about the future…fuck off!
– Naive 67
My..my..such willful ignorance and then to brag about your enfeebled mental state, a real puzzler that is 😕? All these “shut-up…I’ll dictate the narrative at this website” comments mimic exactly what the west is trying to do Russia. And that kinda comment is getting exactly the same result…a mocking laugh 😄. Put another way, it’s kinda like when you hear the least athletic guy at the bar, a guy who never played football tell all that he thinks he’d be a star QB in the NFL. Just gotta laugh at clowns like that…
Posted by: S Brennan | Aug 24 2025 20:20 utc | 72
First, thanks b for finally kicking Vargas to the curb.
Next – Ukraine was not a small country, it had NATO’s largest army and tank force in Europe. Plans to include Ukraine to NATO were agreed to at the Bucharest Summit 2008, Clause 23
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm
Kit Klarenberg on substack has a couple of articles, one describing UK/France plans to disassemble Russia during the Revolution and another about the CIA 1957 invasion plans.
Anyone who has read Marat’s harrowing account of life during the Yeltsin years would have been aware that Russia as late as 2021 is not the Russia of today.
Back then, Russia could not prevent Yugoslavia or Libya.
Mistakes were made, Cuba and North Korea were sanctioned.
VVP admitted himself that he waited too long to intervene in Donbas.
Syria was a trap, that both Russia and Iran evaded. All insinuations that Syria was abandoned are NATO “narratives”.
Posted by: Suresh | Aug 24 2025 20:32 utc | 73
S.Brennan, there will be no “Dark Ages” global economic collapse, just to Western tied economies. Game over, fanboy.
Below is a copy and paste explanation.
BRICS’ Strategies to Navigate Economic Challenges
Decentralizing Global Finance:
BRICS countries promote the increased use of their national currencies for trade among themselves, aiming to lessen their dependence on the U.S. dollar and reduce exposure to Western financial sanctions.
Building Alternative Payment Systems:
Members are exploring or building their own financial “plumbing” and messaging systems to create alternatives to SWIFT and bypass Western financial mechanisms.
Reforming International Governance:
The bloc works to reform global financial architecture to give more voice to developing countries and reduce perceived Western dominance in institutions like the IMF and World Bank.
Developing New Financial Institutions:
The BRICS’ New Development Bank is seen as an important tool for providing development financing and investing in infrastructure projects, especially in the Global South.
Internal Dynamics and External Challenges
China’s Dominance:
While BRICS is a significant economic bloc, its economic output is disproportionately driven by China, creating internal asymmetries.
Need for Coordination:
The success of BRICS’ ambitions, particularly in establishing alternative financial infrastructure, depends on the capacity of its members to coordinate and align their national interests.
Geopolitical Factors:
The group is also driven by the need to respond to U.S. economic statecraft and to secure a “safe harbor” from diplomatic pressure and sanctions.
A Broader Context
Shift in Global Power:
BRICS represents an attempt to create a more multipolar world order, offering developing countries opportunities for economic integration outside the traditional Western-centric system.
Adapting to Global Trends:
The group sees potential in a new wave of economic globalization, focusing on emerging markets and developing countries as key partners.
Posted by: Suresh | Aug 24 2025 20:49 utc | 74
I think this is makes an very important point.
WHAT IF THE RUSSIANS HAD CONDUCTED THE COUP IN 2014.
In 2014 the United States (aligned with a faction in the Ukrainian government) conducted a coup in Kiev (to replace the democratically elected Yanukovich government which was considered insufficiently pro-Europe).
Many in Eastern Ukraine rebelled against this coup-government.
A civil war began.
The coup-government claimed authority over all of Ukraine
and called itself “the Ukrainian government”.
The coup-government sent in the military to deal with the eastern rebels.
The media claimed, and still claims, that the U.S. backed coup-government had a “right” to all of Ukraine and they champion (vigorously support) a march to the Russian border.
WHAT IF THIS HAD HAPPENED IN 2014?
In 2014 Russia (aligned with a faction in the Ukrainian government) conducted a coup in Kiev (to replace the Yanukovich government which was considered too pro-Europe).
Many in Western Ukraine rebelled against this coup-government.
A civil war began.
The coup-government claimed authority over all of Ukraine
and called itself “the Ukrainian government”.
The coup-government called in the Russian military to deal with the western rebels.
Of course, to be consistent, the media claimed, and would still claim, that the Russian backed coup-government had a “right” to all of Ukraine and they would champion a march of the Russian military to the Polish border.
The important point is that statements such as “Ukraine will not give up any of its land,” make no sense.
This is because the coup-government, and its successors, never established authority over all of Ukraine.
ANOTHER SCENARIO
What if the Chinese had (aligned with a leftist faction in the Ukrainian government) had conducted a coup in Kiev. Would this give them authority over all of Ukraine?
Posted by: John | Aug 24 2025 20:53 utc | 75
The ‘cretin’ isn’t worth your time; everyone knows he is just a mendacious moron so no one takes him seriously with the possible exception of vargas’s mother.
Posted by: canuk | Aug 24 2025 15:07 utc | 27
Well, somebody has to love him. And I notice he has quite a few friends and defenders here, if only for his humor. The principal at his special school actually thinks he’s quite smart, relative to the furniture.
Posted by: Vargas’s Mother | Aug 24 2025 21:03 utc | 76
Posted by: S Brennan | Aug 24 2025 20:20 utc | 72
Great self description of yourself. You are the one who wants to teach others. You failed and cannot admit it. Nobody will fall for your two cents psychology.
And of course ad personam fallacy. And arrogance.
Posted by: Naive | Aug 24 2025 21:34 utc | 77
Wrong. Try again.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 24 2025 17:46 utc | 58
Not talking to you because you rude.
Now fuck off slowly, no sudden moves please.
Posted by: hopehely | Aug 24 2025 20:19 utc | 71
Oh, tough talk, trollheim.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 24 2025 21:39 utc | 78
First, thanks b for finally kicking Vargas to the curb.
Posted by: Suresh | Aug 24 2025 20:32 utc | 73
_______
Linkie or it didn’t happen.
Meanwhile, there’s the 46th sockpuppet of a troll at 20:53 that much more urgently needs to be taken care of.
Posted by: malenkov | Aug 24 2025 21:49 utc | 79
“messed up the tags”
Posted by: Julian | Aug 24 2025 13:34 utc | 8
Your whole post is a mess.
Posted by: Nunya | Aug 24 2025 22:01 utc | 80
Air launched ERAM is limited by aircraft, compatibility, pilots, Intel, range until planes are shot down. But Russia left the INF Treaty 2 weeks ago. Intermediate range missiles launched from ground are cheaper, requires nothing more and plentiful. These should be used to devastate Ukraine in retaliation. The perfect testbed for these missiles whose range can be gradually increased while ensuring accuracy. They will serve Russia well after the war. Europe can be held to risk by these missiles releasing all strategic nuclear warheads to take care of USA.
Ukie gas and petroleum infrastructure should be devastated before winter to freeze the fun.
Posted by: Jason | Aug 24 2025 22:05 utc | 81
@7
“” The Most Powerful Military in The world!!”. – And yet – after 3.5 years this military has failed to even fully liberate Donetsk – ostensibly the primary reason for this conflict in the first place!”
Let’s look at it this way.
Had US/NATO been confronted with the exact same military task – meaning the conquest of Ukraine’s Donbass fortress belt – would it have fared better than the Russians? By this, I mean US/NATO would be limited to using just an expeditionary force to reach the goal, just like Russia’s been doing.
21st century ground combat conditions favor the defender, assuming they’re armed with cutting-edge weapons technology (especially drones) and have battle-hardened, motivated infantry.
I remember reading at least one analysis arguing that, given the facts on the ground, US/NATO forces might have done only scarcely better than the RAF.
Posted by: GW | Aug 24 2025 22:10 utc | 82
Malenkov, a couple of earlier comments about Vargas with Sean the gnome referencing comment @10.
Since I can’t find anything from Vargas and comment @10 is from someone else……., I surmise that possibility
Posted by: Suresh | Aug 24 2025 22:42 utc | 83
I’m not terribly happy about the way Putin has been conducing this war either. However the problem with doomers/trolls like vargas and shadowbanned, and other variations, is not their critical stance — it’s the fact that they have exactly one thing to say and they say it over and over and over again. There’s never anything new or fresh about their perspective. Everyone knows exactly what they think, but for some reason they feel obliged to continue saying it ad nauseam. This is why troll is probably the appropirate term, but it’s also possible that they didn’t get enough attention as children.
Posted by: yo | Aug 24 2025 23:21 utc | 84
Mercouris’ latest video confirms that the Ukie scum had to divert resources away from the Sumy direction, where they were making some successful counterattacks, to reinforce the Pokrovsk direction.
Sorry, scum, looks like another incursion into Russian border lands is off the table.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Aug 24 2025 23:24 utc | 85
If Putin meets with zelensky it delegitimizes Putin even further which obviously Russia cant tolerate. Russia will continue to overestimate its own position until it and Ukraine are both dust.
Posted by: lemongrenade | Aug 24 2025 23:33 utc | 86
It’s looking more and more like Trump is more suited to receive an Oscar than a Nobel Peace Prize. They’re both useless knick knacks anyway.
Posted by: ScreamingMonk | Aug 24 2025 23:36 utc | 87
For all the money NATO has spent trying to conquer Russia and steal its resources, they could have just bought the resources on the open market for a fair price and saved themselves a lot of money. Material concerns alone cannot explain NATO’s actions. To understand the actions of the NATO decision-makers, it is necessary to understand their psychology.
Posted by: Donbass Lives Matter | Aug 24 2025 23:36 utc | 88
John@75: this is at least he third time you’ve posted the exact same notice. I’m sure most here have read it. Please give it a rest.
Posted by: SLM | Aug 24 2025 23:46 utc | 89
GW – there’s a lot to think about in today’s comment section. Especially the observations from our host. Maybe I’m being too dogmatic, too stuck in my ways, about Mearsheimer’s take on the causes of the SMO. Yes, a lot to think about.
But “the most powerful military in the world” doesn’t take much time thinking about. Takes no time at all. It was clear before ’22 that NATO, even plus the Ukrainians, couldn’t field anything to defeat the Russians. Nothing has changed since. The military war was always a sideshow compared with the sanctions war. Even the sanctions war was patently a lost cause after the first few weeks.
So, “the most powerful military in the world?” Can we say that of the Russian armed forces?
I think so. Saw a lot of discussion on this on Colonel Lang’s sadly now defunct site. It was freely admitted there that as far as expeditionary land forces go the US now only has a “boutique army”. That was the term used and it was accurate. As for the state of the German, British and French armies, that was well known years before 2022. It’s not got better since.
The Russians are OK in nuclear, not that anyone wants to go there, well ahead with the fancy high tech stuff, and out of sight when it comes to producing the bread and butter stuff in respectable quantities. The only formidable land force NATO had at its disposal was the Ukrainian. But that was never trained up and equipped for combined arms warfare and it’s now suffered from attrition anyway.
There was never a military war here to be won. Even had the combined West gone in in force. The provocation on the LoC in early 2022 was purely for the purpose of hammering the Russians with the sanctions war after they’d reacted to it.
That sanctions war was a dismal failure. End of story. If it weren’t for the fact that our Generals have been pushing the Ukrainians into suicidal ventures non-stop, and if it weren’t for the fact that the Ukrainian regulars fight like heroes, this war would have been history long since.
What the West is best at now is information warfare, to which we devote enormous resources, and “dirty tricks” war. That’s it. When it comes to information warfare our leaders can get us dutifully howling at the Russians, no trouble. When it comes to “dirty tricks” war they can plan any amount of destabilisation around the Russian perimeter. But when it comes to fighting Russia in straight military conflict, forget it. We are not living in the days of the BAOR, and of the then formidable German army and the seemingly limitless resources of the US armed forces. Those days are gone.
These facts are no pleasure to relate. No pleasure to hear either. We all like to think we’ve got armed forces in good working order, equal to whatever they might come up against. But they’re true facts and we do ourselves no favours by pretending they’re not.
As for how the Russians themselves are conducting their “SMO”, seems to me they had good reason for conducting it the way they did. Seems to me that we were so bamboozled by our own information warriors that we missed entirely what the Russians were really up to.
Others think differently. But I doubt the Russian General Staff worry too much about what any of us in Europe think. They know they’re on a loser when it comes to worrying about that. I have never seen such a thoroughgoing and effective information war as the Western information war since February 2022. It was stunningly successful, at least when it came to misinforming the Western electorates, and if information war could win real wars the RF would long since have been defeated.
But it can’t. We can adapt the old joke for modern times. Two Russian Generals picking their way through the ruins of a shattered Berlin. “By the way, who won the information war?” “Oh, they did of course, no question. We were never in with a chance.”
Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 24 2025 23:51 utc | 90
Ahenobarbus@78:
Hope Hely was the name of a (female) character in a Western novel of the early 20th century. Don’t understand why this “character” is using it now, in 2025.
Posted by: SLM | Aug 24 2025 23:52 utc | 91
@ Posted by: b | Aug 24 2025 16:03 utc | 34 & English Outsider #2
This is the piece by Prof. Geoffrey Roberts cited by Posen
‘Now or Never’:
The Immediate Origins of Putin’s Preventative War on Ukraine
Journal of Military & Strategic Studies, 22(2)
https://geoffreyroberts.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Now-or-Never-The-Immediate-Origins-of-Putins-Preventative-War-on-Ukraine.pdf
Downloadable
Posted by: Don Firineach | Aug 25 2025 0:14 utc | 92
The Painter @ 36, WG @ 44:
My understanding is that Iran and Venezuela have good relations based on the US being their common enemy and on their being major oil producers. Iran may have shared intel concerning Venezuela with Caracas, after recent Iranian hacking of Mossad’s database earlier this year which, among other things, enabled Tehran to uncover Mossad’s spying network in its territory and deport the people (mostly Afghan refugees, unfortunately) involved.
Russia’s assistance to Syria during that country’s war (2011 – 2018) was limited to providing air cover and following (more or less) directives from Iranian general Qassem Soleimani. After the war, the Russians and Iranians offered financial and other assistance to Damascus, and one such offer included reforming the armed forces. The Assad government refused this assistance because (among other things – and Syria being a majority Sunni Muslim country is one of those things) it did not want to be dependent, or seen to be dependent, on Russia and Iran. Syria’s Arab neighbours pressured the Syrians to keep Russia and Iran at a distance, if they wanted to be back in the Arab League and financial help.
In the end, who deserted the Syrians most when Mohammed al Golani and his head choppers arrived in Damascus?
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Aug 25 2025 0:27 utc | 93
GW @ 82: “Had US/NATO been confronted with the exact same military task – meaning the conquest of Ukraine’s Donbass fortress belt – would it have fared better than the Russians?”
There is an interesting view from history in the book “America’s First Battles: 1778 – 1965”, by C.E. Heller & W. A. Stofft. Basically, most of the US’s first battles were unsatisfactory or outright failures. The recurring issue is that the military was not prepared for the kind of conflict in which it was placed. That is probably true of most militaries — certainly, the Ukraine was preparing to slice through Donbas civilians, not to face the Russian army. And the initial Russian push into the Ukraine was not a smooth operation.
The key question is how fast can a military (and its supporting society) learn and adapt?
Posted by: Gavin Longmuir | Aug 25 2025 0:49 utc | 94
Posted by: Perimetr | Aug 24 2025 16:25 utc | 37
The Russian Federation can’t and won’t do anything about…The train left the station a long time ago…The attacks will of course continue as long as the Jewish-Neoliberal Trojan horse is in power and the head of the Stavka remains as corrupt as it is today (Gerasimov above all, but others too)…Nato is destroying slowly but surely the sensitive infrastructure of the Russian Federation and its military capabilities until they are reduced to a point when a Nato first strike will go through like a hot knife goes through butter…If there would be the political will, the Russian Federation could destroy the Anglo-Americans in less than 12 hours to a point where it could never ever raise its ugly head again and the North American Continent would be a complete wasteland for decades…And until you deny this simple truth, all talk here is smoke and mirror…
Posted by: Brigitte Mohnhaupt | Aug 25 2025 0:55 utc | 95
RE: 24 AUG, 18:09
“Kiev steps up attacks on Russian territory after Alaska summit — diplomat”
“The number of attacks on civilian targets rising from 300 to 430 per day, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large for the crimes of the Kiev regime told”
https://tass.com/politics/2006849
“”Before the Alaska summit, we had about 300 attacks per day. Afterwards, the number increased to 400, and sometimes 420 to 430. The number of casualties has also increased due to the increase in massive drone strikes. About 90% of the casualties are victims of drones. In Donetsk, ***21 people were injured due to a single **HIMARS strike,” the diplomat noted”
Who would have imagine that “after summit”…?
Zelensky whines about the same thing “after the summit”.
Time to put up or shut up.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 25 2025 0:57 utc | 96
Anyone who doesn’t understand and accept that is too thick to even bother talking to about this issue,
Posted by: Julian | Aug 24 2025 13:32 utc | 7
**********
Ah. yes, yes….
… and yet you take the time and trouble to point out that you are, actually, wasting your time.
At least I can agree with you on that point (that you are wasting your time) – and now mine as well.
Posted by: General Factotum | Aug 25 2025 1:03 utc | 97
As a break from the schoolyard to-and-fro, have a listen to Will Schryver’s rendition of a classic piano piece, at https://player.vimeo.com/video/945355359?h=2d298f6104
He’s on nitter.net as imetatronink.
…And until you deny this simple truth, all talk here is smoke and mirror…
Posted by: Brigitte Mohnhaupt | Aug 25 2025 0:55 utc | 95
It’s curious the flood of comments disqualifying anyone else from speaking unless they have “insert bullshit here”.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 25 2025 1:55 utc | 99
Ahenobarbus@78:
Hope Hely was the name of a (female) character in a Western novel of the early 20th century. Don’t understand why this “character” is using it now, in 2025.
Posted by: SLM | Aug 24 2025 23:52 utc | 91
Fun facts!
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 25 2025 1:56 utc | 100