News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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August 20, 2025
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-189
Comments
malenkov @ 93
You put it much better than I could.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 20 2025 21:06 utc | 97
________
But you offered all of the relevant detail! When on my phone I have to limit myself to bons mots before my fingertips go numb…
Posted by: malenkov | Aug 20 2025 21:09 utc | 101
Passerby @ 96
And if the EU enters the war the attrition suffered by Ukraine will become their attrition, but they’ll get nuked long before they get to 1.7 million.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 20 2025 21:09 utc | 102
As the West continues to negotiate with itself, another ‘normal’ night in Ukraine looms:
Enemy facilities in Ukraine under massive attack by the Russian army
There are already more than 200 “Geraniums” in the sky over Ukraine, and their number is increasing.
Strikes have already been carried out in Sumy and Kharkiv region. Other UAVs are also heading to:
Chernihiv, Kiev, Poltava, Dnepropetrovsk, Kirovograd and Mykolaiv regions.
At the same time, the departure of Tu-95MS strategic missile carriers was reported, according to the Donbass Partizan.
https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/08/20/1618006.html
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 20 2025 21:10 utc | 103
But ok, I ll stay silent.
Posted by: vargas | Aug 20 2025 20:03 utc | 78
Aw cumon vargas
you have the best one liners of all the trolls. Always puts a smile on my face.
Posted by: arby | Aug 20 2025 21:13 utc | 104
Sir Keir still itching to start WWIII now boasting of using the RN and RAF “secure Ukrainian ports” i.e.: Odessa and the Black Sea ports in the event of a ceasefire…
All that talk does is guarantee that Russia will take those ports, so lets see if Sir Keir’s lilliput army and navy and airforce will make a difference…….
I can see it now the POW group steaming toward Odessa…….only to disappear……
Posted by: tobias cole | Aug 20 2025 21:19 utc | 105
Uncle Dmitry swings another punch:
The brainless Gallic cockerel can’t give up the idea of sending troops to “Ukraine” in any way. It is clearly stated: no NATO peacekeepers. Russia will not accept such “security guarantees.” But the hoarse, pathetic bird continues to crow to prove that it is the king of the coop.,
— Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, wrote on the social network X.
https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/08/20/1618087.html
Now that could be fun, the idea of the Seven Dwarves of Europe going to a meeting with Mr. Medvedev…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 20 2025 21:20 utc | 106
I’m calling 48 hour rule on the 1.7M number. Partly because what I believe the reality is (not what I can prove) is that that would make the death ratio significantly north of 10:1. Which is not war at all.
In the US, the “chase the football” thing to argue about is Palestinians getting visas to the US: pro) this is the barest humanity that the US can show after sending the weapons to wound these children con) this is just more deChristian great replacement these organizations have funded terrorist organizations.
And silently, the acceptance of a Final Solution for Gaza slouches into view.
I hope this finds you well
Posted by: ockham | Aug 20 2025 21:22 utc | 107
Thanks Surish @ 100
Extremely informative link. Thats both a keeper and an education (for me)
Respect.
————————–
Time to get back on topic.
Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 20 2025 21:25 utc | 108
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 20 2025 21:06 utc | 97
> He didn’t have integrity as a person, but he did as a writer, the person’s gone but the writing remains, something I’m sure he understood.
I think he did, because he choose to be George Orwell as a writer, and for real life he was Eric Blair.
Posted by: hopehely | Aug 20 2025 21:27 utc | 109
For once, think that Ukraine’s destruction was always baked into the cake. When the USSR fell, the West bet Russia was finished — and to be fair, they had good reason to think so. The real hatred of Putin comes from the fact that he clawed back control from the comprador elites and restored some measure of sovereignty.
But Ukraine was different. Among the post-Soviet republics, it had the human capital to stand as a true counterweight to Russia — a dagger aimed at its heart. The West had been preparing Ukraine since the 1990s, though at first it wasn’t urgent: Russia was supposed to collapse under other pressures. When that failed, the logic shifted. First Georgia, then the ace card.
That’s what I mean by Ukraine’s destruction being inevitable: the West understood that as Russia recovered, it would eventually absorb Ukraine — politically, economically, culturally. That could not be allowed. Better to burn Ukraine out now, leave it as a drag on Russia’s resources, than risk it being reintegrated. They even tried to stir up Kazakhstan, but that proved too hard. Next, they’ll burn Azerbaijan, maybe Moldova. But nothing left compares to Ukraine
@Skiffer @Aug 20 2025 20:54 utc #90
Strangely the concept that these aren’t a true accounting but the official fake number is quite believable.
@LightYearsFromHome @Aug 20 2025 21:03 utc #94
I don’t know if there’s an equivalent of “bon mot” for picking the perfect saying but if there is “write what you know about” re: Orwell should be the example.
I hope this finds you well
Posted by: ockham | Aug 20 2025 21:34 utc | 111
Posted by: ockham | Aug 20 2025 21:22 utc | 107
> I’m calling 48 hour rule on the 1.7M number. Partly because what I believe the reality is (not what I can prove) is that that would make the death ratio significantly north of 10:1. Which is not war at all.
Well they claim that data contains 1.7M files, for every dead soldier: Name, date of birth, military unit served, date and place of death. If that is true, it is traceable, verifiable and countable.
Posted by: hopehely | Aug 20 2025 21:39 utc | 112
If anyone hasn’t noticed Russia lately has started to interrupt the flow of spice, that’s not supposed to happen, it’s the cardinal rule of the planet, in Iraq, Libya, at the peek of rancor and death and destruction the spice kept flowing, it was odd to me at the time, why not hit the invaders, colonizers, imperialists where it hurts most, their economy. But the spice never stops flowing, the cardinal rule of the universe.
When the spice stops flowing, that’s the real escalation, the act there is no retreat or forgivness from, the only redemption is a new world order. Russia is the one doing the provocation and escalation, desperation like the Iraqis blowing up their wells in the final days of war or part of the bigger plan from the start like in Dune?
Things aren’t ending, they are about to start.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 20 2025 21:40 utc | 113
As far as the western lies and propaganda goes, concerning both the war with Russia and the situation envolving israil / Gaza. Orwells newspeak is exactly what we daily live with from the west. they could be useing his book as a works manuel.
And probably are. Along side of hitlers writing.
Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 20 2025 21:43 utc | 114
Posted by: vargas | Aug 20 2025 17:27 utc | 30
“Ordinary Ukrainians wish to die killing “Moskals”
By ordinary Ukrainians do you mean women between 60 and 90? I mean really, who is left in Ukraine to March on Moscow?
Posted by: Paranaense | Aug 20 2025 21:48 utc | 115
Skiffer @90: “…but that they’re keeping a half-way accurate internal tally strikes me as unlikely.”
Why would you say that? The Ukraine is certainly screwed up, but all of their troops have employee identification numbers and employment records. These records don’t just disappear. In fact, the bureaucrats maintaining those records are probably some of the western part of the country’s more diligent workers. Who wants to get blamed for losing someone’s payroll/tax records unless they are pocketing those funds, right? And the people maintaining the records are not the ones through whose hands the paychecks pass, so there is no incentive for them to scrub the records. Doing so just risks serious problems.
Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 20 2025 21:59 utc | 116
Re: the casualty statistics, I don’t think the figures published by the Russian Defence Ministry include strikes on Ukrainian rear positions. In recent months we’ve seen frequent attacks on training camps, assembly areas, temporary barracks etc. by drones and missiles; who knows how many perished and were injured by these strikes?
Maybe Ukrainian forces do keep as accurate records as they possibly can, they just don’t like what is shown and hush it up, hiding the corruption and incompetence, in order to save their own political skins.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 20 2025 22:06 utc | 117
@vargas: you really are tiring.
Posted by: scc | Aug 20 2025 18:08 utc | 39
Lol. Think how I feel.
Posted by: Vargas’s Mom | Aug 20 2025 22:12 utc | 118
Thinking on it a bit more, if I were part of Ukraine’s senior military command I would not want it leaking out that my and my colleagues incompetent decision-making and flawed tactics had lost 1.7m troops.
It gets even more tricky if we consider NATO’s much-vaunted “training” – well, if your “training” is so damn good, how come so many troops have been lost?
Cover has been blown by the leaked hack.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 20 2025 22:17 utc | 119
hopehely @ 109
I think he did, because he choose to be George Orwell as a writer, and for real life he was Eric Blair.
Interesting, I understand the use of a pen name to keep personal life and work separate but never thought of planning to keep that distinction even after death, to use it as an immortality multiplier, whatever you do in life, good or bad, all that will be remembered about your is your work. Clever trick.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 20 2025 22:36 utc | 120
I find it strange that people find the 1.7 million shocking. To know the truth all you have to do is look at the actions and do not pay attention to the words. Anybody who wanted to look would have seen the unlimited number of videoes of TCC abductions. The US and EU is giving Ukraine pressue to draft the 18-25 crowd which happens to be a smaller demographic. Zelensky pushes back on that by saying we need them to rebuild the country or to even have a country. This was the only issue Zelensky took Ukraine’s side on. The EU and US don’t care about that. They just assume they all die so they won’t be in the way when they take over the country and they won’t have to listen to their whining or have to feed them so they don’t rebel. The best thing any Ukrainian can do is try to find a way across the line of contact and get into Eastern Ukraine. They can become a Russian citizen with the full rights of Russian citizenship and they are their family can have a future. If they are stuck on the wrong side of the line they get to face being a slave colony to the West. All their assets and future assets have already been promised to Western financial interests. They will be a permanent debt colony and stripped mined like Greece. This is why the Western elite don’t care about them.
Posted by: goldhoarder | Aug 20 2025 22:43 utc | 121
IMO, it’s 100% clear that either Russia or Ukraine’s constitution must be changed so a peace deal can be settled. And IMO, the nation with the already broken constitution is to be the one making the changes. IMO, that’s the unspoken yet logical reality the peace solution requires staring all of us in the face.
Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 20 2025 20:22 utc | 81
———–
Agreed 100%. Have said so all along, but been ignored by the shallow thinkers and war-boys here.
My own projected sequence would be:
1. Zelensky’s replacement with ANYONE temporary that the US and RF can tolerate — on the condition that legitimate 404 elections take place, *including plebiscites in the non-RF eastern and southern oblasts — Sumy, Kharkov, Dnipro, Odessa, Mikokaiv, to garner their preferred national allegiance*. It seems to me their voluntary sessession would be a great step forwards to alleviate Ukraine’s own civil schism.
2. A fresh Rada and complete constitutional re-write in line with Kremlin desires for the future peace of their relations.
3. Gracious help from RF in physically rebuilding 404 and re-establishing brotherly relations.
4. A watertight 100 year mutual security treaty between RF and Ukraine … under threat of annihilation if they ever try to get tricky with outside forces again. If only the EU would abolish NATO and join the treaty, all of Europe could live in peace and better prosperity. Duh.
🙂
All that may seem a fantasy, but imo it’s the only way forwards, away from more and constant warfare. I think and hope, that once this SMO is proven as a template, the US State Dept may just leave Russia’s perimeter states alone. I actually believe Trump would like that. I don’t believe he is truly a part of the “continued agenda against Russia” cohort. He’ll have to be super-clever to pass the presidential batten to someone of like-mind.
Posted by: Indulis Kradzins | Aug 20 2025 22:49 utc | 122
1.7M dead in a 1,300 day war works out to 1,300 dead hohols every single day. I doubt that figure.
The 1.7M figure likely includes missing as suggested. Plus deserters. Some deserters would likely pay a fee to their corrupt commanders to get away, plus the commanders would get salary allotments for them. Hitler personally paid his officer corps, too, not just the state. You gotta pay fascists. The Blob is doing that. For now.
Posted by: seer | Aug 20 2025 22:52 utc | 123
I’m calling 48 hour rule on the 1.7M number. Partly because what I believe the reality is (not what I can prove) is that that would make the death ratio significantly north of 10:1. Which is not war at all.
Posted by: ockham | Aug 20 2025 21:22 utc | 107
Not really, shy of 8 cumulative (and a lot of high numbers from second half of 2024 and 2025 only, explained by AFU quality going from weak to pure shit, cannibalized rear etc).
10 would be current exchange rate (since kursk), mistakes get paid. Seasoned, rotated forces against whatever z can muster to plug the gaps? Add artillery and air supremacy and it’s doable.
But yes, 48 hours should get us a data dump or nothing (or maybe ukraine and EU accepting all RF terms lest details be leaked)
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 20 2025 22:55 utc | 124
Ukraine’s casulties of 1.7 million is mostly KIA. There are very few MIA among them because Ukraine has a strong mechanism to stop anyone escaping from the military and all NATO neighbors hand back any escapees into their country. Only safe escape for Ukrainians is to Russia.
It also means Ukraine has 4 million more women than men (even before the war this number was 2 million). A good opportunity for Russia to repopulate Ukraine with a friendly mixed population.
Posted by: Jason | Aug 20 2025 22:58 utc | 125
@ Vargas’s Mom | Aug 20 2025 22:12 utc | 118
How often did you drop that boy on his head?…
Posted by: malenkov | Aug 20 2025 23:02 utc | 126
1.7 million Ukrainian military deaths exclude foreigners who died in the war. These are only soldiers of Ukraine. In addition Ukraine also suffered civilian casualties. All in all we are talking about 2 million plus Ukrainian casualties or 7.5% of its current population. Or 18% of its male population. (Not 15% because female population percentage was higher).
Losing 18% of males in a country to war excluding displacement is terrible. Ukraine has no future.
Attrition warfare is again proven to be the right approach. Continue the war for another 2 years and Russia will be able to create a 300km buffer zone in Ukraine and possibly more.
Posted by: Jason | Aug 20 2025 23:07 utc | 127
Posted by: Justpassinby | Aug 20 2025 20:56 utc | 92
EU leaders expressed deep skepticism about the Kremlin’s willingness to negotiate in good faith, but remained optimistic that Washington would toughen its policy if Putin became an obvious obstacle to peace.”.
that last part is pure gold.
<= yes, there is quite a difference in negotiating and being told at the point of a gun, if you don't give up (even though you are winning) we will use the media to defeat your every voice and we will create a giant gang and arm it to the hilt with purpose to destroy you for your failure to give up.
A use of force threat is not the same as negotiating in good faith.
Russia has made it clear, very clear, it has delivered for the past 5 years the same message.. until you develop, present and commit to an irrevocable plan that guarantees your aggression against Russia will not happen again or continue, resolution of the conflict in the Ukraine is on hold.
The west is unwilling to give Russia those guarantees..so the war goes on.. no matter its threats.
Posted by: snake | Aug 20 2025 23:07 utc | 128
Zelensky’s replacement with ANYONE temporary that the US and RF can tolerate — on the condition that legitimate 404 elections take place, *including plebiscites in the non-RF eastern and southern oblasts — Sumy, Kharkov, Dnipro, Odessa, Mikokaiv, to garner their preferred national allegiance*. It seems to me their voluntary sessession would be a great step forwards to alleviate Ukraine’s own civil schism.
2. A fresh Rada and complete constitutional re-write in line with Kremlin desires for the future peace of their relations.
Posted by: Indulis Kradzins | Aug 20 2025 22:49 utc | 122
Well that would be a good start for sure, though I personally think the factional in-fighting that an election campaign in Ukraine would cause will lead to the fracturing of the concept of a nation-state of Ukraine.
Leaving aside the Zelensky/Yermak axis, there’s Zaluzhny being plumped up by the British establishment (I’m not convinced Washington is on-board with this), then there’s the Klitschko faction in and around Kiev, Porky Poroshenko, heck even Arestovich might start agitating,; then we have minor low-level players like Mariana Bezuglaya and Yaroslav Zheleznyak, who are already sniping at each other in the Rada.
And of course, we shouldn’t overlook the hardcore Maidanites, the Nazi paramilitaries, they haven’t gone away yet, though that’s a work in progress for Russia.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 20 2025 23:13 utc | 129
Appears a drone did fall in Poland. Usual accusations at the Russians but no proof yet.
The fact that Dima and the village idiot haven’t seen all those forced mobilization videos makes me wonder.
Yeah, not really.
A drink for Vargas’s Mum.
Posted by: Suresh | Aug 20 2025 23:14 utc | 130
Ukrainian cemeteries must be bursting. Crematoriums must be active day and night. That’s an awful lot of bodies.
Posted by: A rope leash | Aug 20 2025 23:22 utc | 131
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 20 2025 21:07 utc | 98
1.7 million is a believable figure (not the same as accurate though)
Lower rates in ‘22, because the initial combatants of the Russian Army were largely poorly trained, led and equipped, whilst core UA was better in most/all categories and had ISR/drone force multipliers.
‘22 though is the critical year, because the Ukrainian advantage does not last, core units suffer up to 70-80% casualties, whilst the Russians begin to rapidly adapt. Nadir for the Russians is the humiliating reversals in Autumn ‘22, but it still costs the Ukrainians dearly and they fail to operationally exploit. Critically, they are reliant more and more on mercenary units for critical sector fights (not included in these casualty reports).
Most missing are either, KIA and kept as phantom soldiers for payment diversion or quite literally missing, as Russian increasingly uses FAE/Heavy HE which obliterates corpses.
‘23 is a classic incline/decline cycle with the Summer offensive seeing Russians catch up, exceed certain capabilities and play to their strengths, whilst Ukraine shatters her re-built army fighting like a combination of the Germans in ‘43 and Russians in ‘42. Most MIA are still phantom soldiers though desertions make up an increasing minority as do soldiers executed or shot by blocking units.
Throughout ‘22-‘23 Russian conservative BDA, ISR limitations, new deception technologies, remote strike systems, leads to a combination of overstating of the strength of actual Ukrainian units deployed, leading to subsequent CoFM calculations being excessive, whilst generating excessive casualty counts in other areas, often rear-area strikes. NATO weaponry increasingly less effective, due to adaption to the new threat profiles they pose and critical shortages in munitions and repair capability.
‘24 Russian operational dominance with majority tactical parity against all but the better units, with improving command capability and UA resorting largely to UAV’s and indirect weapons as the majority systems employed. Incline/decline accelerating with Ukrainian losses required to achieve/restrict double those of previous years. Kursk, Krynky, Avdeevka operations are good examples of the casualty inflation required operationally.
MIA are now probably more like 50/50 phantom soldiers and deserters. Russian BDA possibly more accurate or the inflated figures now conform more to the reality. Possibly digitisation of CoFM, to make it more a realtime battlefield management system, is allowing more accurate predictions, or greater effect of weapons on targets, or increased use of drones, or all of the above.
‘25 Endgame. Incline/decline now in terminal phase, in response new US administration pulls support in critical areas, Russia gaining parity or ascendency in numerous areas with UA needing to commit up to x2 forces to achieve similar results as ‘24. The recent deployment of nine+ brigades to halt and reverse the recent Russian regimental/brigade advance that outran its support, is evidence of this operational inflation.
MIA are now likely a majority, over the phantom soldiers or the genuinely disappeared.
Given the multi-spectrum nature and conduct of the war, by both sides, this can only be a guestimation at best, though some standard techniques can be applied.
50% haircut for all stated claims.
Incline/decline cycle always operates (unless reversed this situation continuously deteriorates), so more units,(operational inflation) worse trained, v’s same opposition leads to exponential, not logarithmic increases in rates. Doubly so if the opponent has improved (a logarithmic calculation, as is decrease in capability).
Operational capability is a product of casualty absorption, and a good indicator of loss levels. Post ‘23 Ukraine has been unable to replicate that capability, whereas Russia has been able to continue multi-divisional sized operations since the start of the war.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 20 2025 23:29 utc | 132
vargas—
Did you see that? they’re all talking about you.
Posted by: arby | Aug 20 2025 23:29 utc | 133
The nazis are undoubtedly liquidating dissenters. Perhaps only enough to send the message, less than 50k or so, but they might include them in the 1.7M figure to cover up these murders.
Posted by: seer | Aug 20 2025 23:36 utc | 135
Suresh | Aug 20 2025 20:54 utc | 91–
Thanks for your reply. I shall look at that comment. It must be noted that the Kremlin’s website doesn’t list everyone Putin calls.
… blood on Zelensky and Nuland’s hands. Demons in human flesh.
Posted by: bored | Aug 20 2025 16:52 utc | 14
Boris
Johnson.
By Istanbul it was already obvious Ukraine should seek the best terms possible.
[From there, the UKU$EU should have returned to pursuing a terrorist campaign against Russia. ]
But by Bucha and Istanbul, the demons were already addicted to their war porn.
Lindsay Graham: If it takes 10 Ukrainians to kill one Russian, that’s still one dead Russian.
Biden: To the Last Ukrainian
NAFO. Ben Wallace. Ben Hodges. Michael Kofman. Rob Lee. Michael McFaul. Bill Browder.
We know their names. We have their own words with which to condemn them.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 20 2025 23:37 utc | 137
Not all of that 1.7 million killed. Many were wounded or deserted. I estimate 600k-1 million dead but its just a wild guess
Posted by: Pete Lincoln | Aug 20 2025 23:44 utc | 138
Today’s post by Sebastian Sas is worth a listen.
Posted by: Fool Me Twice | Aug 21 2025 0:01 utc | 139
S Brennan | Aug 20 2025 18:20 utc | 41
The death and grief will be held in hearts across Russia.
The difference between the impact of 60,000 KIA in Vietnam and 120,000 KIA in Donbass is Russians really believe they are fighting an existential war for their country and it’s future.
Every Russian knows 27million perished to save Russia in the Great Patriotic War.
May 9 every year the entire nation stops to honour, reflect and pledge that that sacrifice will not be in vain.
Soldiers who’ve died fighting for Russia in Donbass are now members of the Immortal Regiment. Families and acquaintances mourn them, but they also venerate them.
Look at Viet vets in the U$. Discarded. Homeless. Drug-alcohol dependent.
Deep in the national psych the U$ knows it had no business in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan.
So the shame is felt at a very deep Jungian level.
Russia feels pride. And gratitude.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 21 2025 0:05 utc | 140
Good evening to b, the bar owner, and the barflies,
I don’t know if this interview with Michael von der Schulenburg by Glenn Diesen has already been mentioned, but it’s worth a click :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjkVbKWrqh4
Best regards
Posted by: Tak-Tik | Aug 21 2025 0:07 utc | 141
Deep in the national psych the U$ knows it had no business in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan.
So the shame is felt at a very deep Jungian level.
Russia feels pride. And gratitude.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 21 2025 0:05 utc | 140
_______
Or maybe it’s that Americans don’t like “losers”?
Posted by: malenkov | Aug 21 2025 0:13 utc | 142
Posted by: Pete Lincoln | Aug 20 2025 23:44 utc | 138
Another problem with RAF enemy casualty reports is the framing of the numbers, using the deliberately nebulous term ‘lost’. This can be seen at its face value as representing a KIA, but can also refer to lost combat potential, ie WIA. So a lost person in ‘22 (WIA) might be also lost (KIA) in ‘23.
Anyone expecting both sides to give accurate casualty figures, in an ongoing conflict of this nature, is likely to be disappointed. As they say, the basis of all warfare is deception, a good maxim to remember when trying to gauge any sort of figures; however you can focus first on what they’re not saying and secondly, and more importantly, on actions of the respective forces, not their words.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 21 2025 0:21 utc | 143
I’m a cynical old Conspiracy Confirmationist.
But it seems rather “convenient” for the “Russian” hackers to have found and released this information right after Alaska and the WH visit from the Seven Sniffing Dwarves.
I see this as a Release by TrumpTeamTrix. Tulsi/DNI.? Tulsi would be on board. Hegsbreath/DoD? They want out of Ukraine so they can humiliate themselves against China.
When someone loses a sock in the laundry,…. the Russians did it.
A major data dump that fully unmasks the demolition of Ukraine? = Russians.
With all the Witkoff tourism to Moscow. The meetings and interactions in Alaska. Easy to just hand off a thumb drive or make access available for the “hackers” to find.
Yeah. The real Ukrainian numbers were released, not hacked.
TrumpTeamTrix wants the Europeans to know how badly U$NATO has lost.
—-
Now. Let’s go poke China. It’ll be fun, guys. Trust US.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 21 2025 0:28 utc | 144
Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 21 2025 0:05 utc | 140
Do all your ideas about the US reside firmly in the land occupied by simplistic TV cliches?
Guess this was a homeless, discarded Vet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Rescorla
Posted by: malenkov | Aug 21 2025 0:13 utc | 142
Guess the Russians don’t like losers either, given the State’s abysmal treatment of their Afghan vets.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 21 2025 0:37 utc | 145
In light of the new evidence that 1.7 million Ukranians have been killed or are missing, I have read a lot of comments that it is I unfortunate that Slavs are killing Slavs.
First of all, some Ukrainians are not Slavs and some are part Slavs.
Second,the fact that Ukrainians,in general, have embraced Nazism during WW2 and since WW2 more than any other Slavic country, shows that, in general, they are the most moronic of all Slavs.
On a personal level, I have met many Ukrainians and every single one of them has been a dumb fuck asshole, men and women.
Also, of all of the Jews I have met, the Ukrainian Jews were the most obnoxious.
Posted by: Anton Gorbatow | Aug 21 2025 0:46 utc | 146
Dennis Kucinich was on The Duran yesterday (Aug 19) – as usual making perfect sense & speaking the truth..
“Since 2014, the drumbeat of anti-Russia propaganda has drowned out honest debate in America & fueled a dangerous cycle of confrontation
“The 2014 coup in Ukraine, backed by the United States, turned that nation into a staging area against Russia & lit the fuse for the war we see today …
“Ukraine has been used as a pawn in a geopolitical chess game instead of being allowed to act as a sovereign nation …
https://www.youtube.com/live/ZcUohTCXWao?si=3c6F3LvoeFYZasA_
“Truth will ultimately prevail where pains are taken to bring it to light…. Without virtue, & without integrity, the finest talents or the most brilliant accomplishments can NEVER gain respect. -George Washington 1794
Posted by: Will Seymore | Aug 21 2025 0:47 utc | 147
Starmer says that the UK will deploy troops to Ukraine if a peace deal is reached… so UK guilty of provoking Russia to go to war. Well thats the internet right now. Fucking clown Starmer with his Ukrainian rent boys.
Posted by: Kaiama | Aug 21 2025 0:49 utc | 148
arby @133: “Did you see that? they’re all talking about you.”
Yep, he gets an “engagement” bonus for today.
Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 21 2025 0:50 utc | 149
Guess the Russians don’t like losers either, given the State’s abysmal treatment of their Afghan vets.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 21 2025 0:37 utc | 145
________
Nice deflection. But even if we assume that the USSR lost, you can’t argue that anyone beside the oligarchs was treated well during the Yeltsin era.
Posted by: malenkov | Aug 21 2025 0:57 utc | 150
Dennis Kucinich said that Putin’s “invasion” of Ukraine is immoral and wrong. He said it at an “anti war” rally in Washinton.
Liberals make me sick. (I also hate conservatives.)
Posted by: Anton Gorbatow | Aug 21 2025 1:00 utc | 151
Maybe an armistice is a good idea, based on a de facto border, not de jure. So, if idiots in Britain or elsewhere insist on sending troops, that may violate a “frozen” agreement – rather than a real peace agreement.
Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 21 2025 1:00 utc | 152
Casualty numbers are irrelevant, Ukraine for now and the foreseeable future will be in the war even if they have to defend Kiev with their teeth. This will go on till they have no teeth.
I don’t think president Putin and his stuff want a complete collapse of the Ukrainian state for reasons beyond my intelligence. All Moscow’s actions those 3,5 years are very delicate with even dual purpose infrastructure still standing.
Posted by: 667 | Aug 21 2025 1:04 utc | 153
Indulus @ 122: “3. Gracious help from RF in physically rebuilding 404 and re-establishing brotherly relations.”
Let’s be realistic. The only country in the world with both enough money to rebuild Rump Ukraine and a reasonable business case for doing so is China. Europe can’t afford to do it, nor can the indebted US. And Russia has better things on which to invest its money at home.
For China, Rump Ukraine would be a great way-station on the Belt & Road to supply Europe … hoping that Europe can still afford to buy supplies from China. And China has the technology & workers to build superfast trains crossing Rump Ukraine, and an excess of young males who might learn to appreciate all those young Ukrainian ladies who have been left behind by their dead boyfriends.
A rational end to the Ukrainian proxy war would be a UN mandate to China to occupy Rump Ukraine with sufficient military force to guarantee that both NATO and Russia stay out — along with a mandate to rebuild Rump Ukraine and a free hand to deal with Ukrainian corruption in the normal Chinese way.
Posted by: Gavin Longmuir | Aug 21 2025 1:15 utc | 154
Trump wants his Nobel peace prize because Obama has one. Yes folks that’s what all of this is about – who has the biggest cock. Meantime lets get it on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOjCjXfG9yg&list=RDbOjCjXfG9yg&start_radio=1
Posted by: Siddhartha | Aug 21 2025 1:17 utc | 155
Operational capability is a product of casualty absorption, and a good indicator of loss levels. Post ‘23 Ukraine has been unable to replicate that capability, whereas Russia has been able to continue multi-divisional sized operations since the start of the war.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 20 2025 23:29 utc | 132
Copied just a bit but globally agreed. Even today tried explaining how a marginally worse Kia/maimed in action , coupled with needing 3 or 4 times less men to man an equivalent line (hence reduced exposure) could lead to 7x kill ratio (and now with still twice incompetent AFU, 10x+)
As for the truth, I do what I can with models and number merging adjustments to find likely values.
P.S. can’t remember nor find your estimate for reasonable soldiers to hold current LOC, do you still have it ?
On the previous thread I wondered (and someone took that angle here as well) if it was a hack or a leak, a forcing of Ukraine to comply lest the truth be confirmed (and what horrible truth it is);;.
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 21 2025 1:17 utc | 156
Melaleuca @144: “Yeah. The real Ukrainian numbers were released, not hacked.”
Makes sense, but first the pros and cons.
Cons: You think American hackers are better than Russian hackers? I highly doubt that. I know. I’ve had glowie trainees in my classes.
Pros: The CIA and NSA have the keys to the back doors of all Windows machines on the planet (thank you Microsoft!). They don’t need to have top notch hacker talent to exfiltrate data. Accessing any networked Windows machine anywhere in the world is as easy as launching a Remote Desktop session for them. If you are using Windows then they could very well be watching your every keystroke and mouse move at this very moment, and they don’t even have to know how the tools they use work.
That said, I agree. The documents are obviously legitimate. It’s too easy to disprove them otherwise. Just find one name in the data dump of a person who is either provably still alive (and didn’t desert) or who never existed and the whole thing is discredited. That’s 1.7 million names, so it shouldn’t be too difficult if the hack is a fabrication.
Now the notion that Trump’s team would leak the data dump? It definitely makes sense and is certainly a possibility. Let’s see where things go with this.
Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 21 2025 1:20 utc | 157
So, after 3 days absence Marat returns and no biggie
Except that the bunny seems to have lost a lot of its ears and the second AFU line was patched.
https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/brief-frontline-report-august-20th
If Kursk was one or two magnitudes undervalued at first, this one was overvalued (maybe by as much) .
Question is, where will RF REALY send its thrust
Or just an antena calling out all lemmings?
@milites do you have an opinion?
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 21 2025 1:29 utc | 158
@tobias 105
Quite “Ukrainian ports” i.e.: Odessa and the Black Sea ports in the event of a ceasefire…”
That is why Putin must not allow England to be in Ukraine on any pretext. It is England which plotted Ukraine and Syria. Wars a d was managing to the last details.
Putin has been too coward to bomb specifically British troops assets and kill English inside England in retribution to russians killed .
Posted by: Sam | Aug 21 2025 1:43 utc | 159
> I’m calling 48 hour rule on the 1.7M number. Partly because what I believe the reality is (not what I can prove) is that that would make the death ratio significantly north of 10:1. Which is not war at all.
Well they claim that data contains 1.7M files, for every dead soldier: Name, date of birth, military unit served, date and place of death. If that is true, it is traceable, verifiable and countable.
Posted by: hopehely | Aug 20 2025 21:39 utc | 112
All that’s needed to verify is a randomised audit of every 100th or even 1000th file. That’ll show if these are made up or not. Would work best if Ukrainians would do it and ask the relatives.
Posted by: PJB | Aug 21 2025 2:04 utc | 160
Every Russian knows 27 million perished to save Russia in the Great Patriotic War.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 21 2025 0:05 utc | 140
Every Russian knows 27 million Russians perished to save (the Jews that ran) Russia in the Great Patriotic War.
There, fixed it for you.
Posted by: Surest | Aug 21 2025 2:10 utc | 161
BTN: Vijay Prashad: ‘NATO is Lost in Ukraine and the West is in Denial’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJP4qgCrcqQ
“Trump met with Putin, Hillary Clinton praised his ‘better understanding’ of Ukraine. Europe bowed its head and posed for a photo. And Ukraine? Still collapsing…”
Posted by: John Gilberts | Aug 21 2025 2:17 utc | 162
Europe is not suffering enough to give up on Project Ukraine. Even though, by any reasonable metric, they’re losing and it will only get worse.
Perhaps we’ll need to see every Patriot system donated by Germany to Ukraine destroyed, denuding their own air defenses. Along with more deindustrialization due to non-competitive energy prices.
France is in better shape; they’ve lost mercenaries, with no exact way to tell how many. With their nuclear energy program and only a 15% dependency on expensive LNG from the US, Macron can strut and posture for a while longer.
And the UK, well, we know how corrupt they are. They’ve managed to bugger themselves real good, with Starmer.
Ukraine cannot come out of this with a military. Russia must kill them all.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Aug 21 2025 2:35 utc | 163
Ukrainian KIA-MIA. It’s a ‘Realease’, NOT a *Hack*
Here’s Berletic with Rachel Blevins YT:
Berletic: …
The New York Times again over and over again admit that in 2014 the CIA took control over Ukraine’s intelligence agencies.
Everything that Ukraine is doing is a product of the CIA’s presence there in Ukraine. They are directly controlling it. The New York Times also earlier this year admitted that US generals are at the top of the chain of command of the the Ukrainian armed forces.
They are coming up with the overall strategic planning.
They’re even going down to specific targets on the battlefield, picking them and assigning US and European weapons to use against them uh you know that have
been transferred to Ukraine.
So every aspect of this war is being fought by the United States for the interests of the United States ……
Based on what Berletic says about U$ full control of Ukrainian military and intelligence …the data that is held on the Ukrainian loses is accurate.
TrumpTeamTrix marionettes and their string pullers want OUT of Ukrainian.
One way is to get the real Ukrainian losses into the information space via the goode olde and ever reliable Bad Guys, omnipotent “Russian hackers”.
Israel needs all the weapons to have another whack at Iran.
TrumpTeamTrix and his faction want to to “choke China”.
Ukraine is a lost cause. As malenkov mentioned, Ukrainians are “losers”. The U$ (esp Trump) hates “losers”.
Ukraine’s use as a cudgel against Russia is blunted.
Time for the U$ to withdraw and chuck Ukraine in the trash with the same disgust one has for a cheap whore and the obligatory used condom.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 21 2025 2:51 utc | 164
@ Vargas’s Mom | Aug 20 2025 22:12 utc | 118
How often did you drop that boy on his head?…
Posted by: malenkov | Aug 20 2025 23:02 utc | 126
🙂 Just the once … at birth. He’s been in a partial coma ever since, as many have noted.
Posted by: Vargas’s Mom | Aug 21 2025 2:59 utc | 165
Carney’s Canada For Ukraine
President Zelensky Awarded James Temerty, Famous Ukrainian-Canadian Philanthropist with The Legend of Ukraine Award
https://x.com/WashukCanUA/status/1958249621328691501
“James Temerty is indeed a living Legend, not only in terms of hundreds of millions of dollars in long-term financial support for Canadian and Ukrainian causes, but also through his strategic thinking in backing Ukrainian-Jewish ties…”
Canada Is Training Ukrainian Fighter Pilots
https://x.com/NationalDefence/status/1958169377288696302
“Canada is training Ukraines fighter pilots in basic jet handling and fighter tactics. Learn how Canada is helping them get the skills to successfully fly F-16s on the front line…”
Posted by: JohnGilberts | Aug 21 2025 3:02 utc | 166
Gavin Longmuir | Aug 21 2025 1:15 utc | 154
appreciate all those young Ukrainian ladies who have been left behind by their dead boyfriends.
You haven’t paid attention. Even well before 2022, and accelerated in the months at the start of the sloSMO, there has been a mass exodus (millions) of young (fertile) females out of Ukraine and into the brothels of Europe and the Middle East.
And online.. Ukrainian whores are ubiquitous online.
When the demographic cliff of Ukraine is considered, it’s not only the missing generation of 15-25year olds who were never born. Right now the core breeding females have long left the country.
And the birth rate 2022-2025? That is another generation of Ukrainians who simply will never be born.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 21 2025 3:05 utc | 167
Newbie | Aug 21 2025 1:17 utc | 156
Didn’t see your comment previous thread.
Doing IRL activities …
But the timing is just waaaaay too convenient.
Tulsi wants out of Ukraine. So does Hegseth and DoD.
Rubio also.
There’s enough momentum in TrumpTeamTrix to orchestrate the release into the information space.
> The Europeans and Ukraine want to keep fighting?
U$: Fine. Where are the soldiers?
Want weapons. Sure. Pay us first.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 21 2025 3:15 utc | 168
In case people forget, Russia needs to secure the watershed areas that supply water to both Dunbas and Crimea.
That means they need to control both sides of these water sources to create dams and reservoirs
Posted by: Blind Bridge Troll | Aug 21 2025 3:38 utc | 169
Don’t believe nothin’. It’s pretty much a farce. Damn it’s ugly. Cheers all. Stay safe.
Posted by: Ledovik1 | Aug 21 2025 4:06 utc | 170
Reminded of the scorpion hitching a ride across a river on the back of a fox.
” You won’t sting me…
At mid-stream..
” I remain a scorpion and cannot help but sting you, even if I too perish…”
It’s damn ugly. Theater of the absurd.
Still, enjoy the commentary. Wish the assholes would be a bit more polite…
Regards to all. Fuck, damn. Hope the world survives this idiocy.
Ledovik1
Posted by: Ledovik1 | Aug 21 2025 4:16 utc | 171
Reminded of the scorpion hitching a ride across a river on the back of a fox.
” You won’t sting me…
At mid-stream..
” I remain a scorpion and cannot help but sting you, even if I too perish…”
It’s damn ugly. Theater of the absurd.
Still, enjoy the commentary. Wish the assholes would be a bit more polite…
Regards to all. Fuck, damn. Hope the world survives this idiocy.
Ledovik1
Posted by: Ledovik1 | Aug 21 2025 4:16 utc | 172
Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 21 2025 3:05 utc | 167
It sounds like the empire has two genocides underway.
Historically, has one nation ever gotten away with using another as a proxy to attack a third, and completely destroying the demographic future of that proxy?
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Aug 21 2025 5:23 utc | 173
If Kursk was one or two magnitudes undervalued at first, this one was overvalued (maybe by as much) .
Question is, where will RF REALY send its thrust
Or just an antena calling out all lemmings?
@milites do you have an opinion?
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 21 2025 1:29 utc | 158
Dear Newbie, the “antenna” was especially notable because of small unit actions.
The Russians are only engaging in small unit actions yet advancing. There is no need for big arrow type maneuvers that you yourself have pointed out previously.
For the love of God, the name of this game is Attrition.
Remember, the Russians will not fight to hold ground like Hamburger Hill (Vietnam) or Porkchop Hill (Korea). You might want to read up on those battles that cost a lot of lives for no tactical, operational or strategic value.
Posted by: Suresh | Aug 21 2025 5:34 utc | 174
I don’t think president Putin and his stuff want a complete collapse of the Ukrainian state for reasons beyond my intelligence. All Moscow’s actions those 3,5 years are very delicate with even dual purpose infrastructure still standing.
Posted by: 667 | Aug 21 2025 1:04 utc | 153
Nothing good can come from a failed state like Libya/Syria/Congo on Russia’s doorstep. Plus, Russia does not want to be tied down in another occupation like Afghanistan.
These scenarios were NATO’s plan A for starting the Ukraine War in a fight it knew Ukraine couldn’t win. The real reason this has gone on for so long is typical US/NATO habit of committing “mission creep”.
Cue Martyanov’s cry of COFM!!
Posted by: Suresh | Aug 21 2025 5:47 utc | 175
Guess the Russians don’t like losers either, given the State’s abysmal treatment of their Afghan vets.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 21 2025 0:37 utc | 145
C’mon Milites, I expected better from you than a cheap shot out of context.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA1363-1-v2.html#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20the%20suicide%20rate%20for%20male%20veterans%20was%2044,14.2%20versus%207.4%20per%20100%2C000).
Posted by: Suresh | Aug 21 2025 5:59 utc | 176
So you agree 2022 is undercounted in the alleged hack/leak
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 20 2025 21:07 utc | 98
Maybe not, my point is attrition/positional warfare really begin in Bakhmut in the end of 2022 and generalize in 23.
Arty tend to do more wounded, at the time frontline first aid was maybe more common knowledge and rear medical structures were maybe more efficient. KIA/WIA ratio was maybe “better” only to degrade later on. We’ve seen less and less medivac vids since.
Massive use of mining was also less common while the frontline were moving and real mine damage occurred on 23 in static conditions like Vugledar, “the counter offensive” and “Kriky beach head”.
Plus “last man standing” was maybe not the choice of 404’s staff with a “professional army” than it became with involvement of more “territorials” ad “bussified” later on.
1914 on the moving western front was not were the most casualties happened, only to climb in later years on static lines.
Posted by: Hiro Masamune | Aug 21 2025 6:22 utc | 177
@ tobias cole | Aug 20 2025 20:03 utc
Does Iran have those coordinates?
Posted by: necromancer | Aug 21 2025 6:29 utc | 178
And just to add to my previous post , don’t forget the size of both armies.
Russian started with 180-200k troops, now it’s 600-700k , same for the Banderist who initialy had round 300K and grow the army size to 700k only in the end of 22.
Posted by: Hiro Masamune | Aug 21 2025 6:29 utc | 179
If one has convictions about any topic, but certainly a moral one, it is important to be direct and precise.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 20 2025 20:32 utc | 83
*****************
Thank you.
For some time I have been trying to arrive at an explanation for the responses of a small sub-set of posters.
It really is as simple as you say.
Posted by: General Factotum | Aug 21 2025 6:34 utc | 180
Indulus @ 122: “3. Gracious help from RF in physically rebuilding 404 and re-establishing brotherly relations.”
Let’s be realistic. The only country in the world with both enough money to rebuild Rump Ukraine and a reasonable business case for doing so is China. Europe can’t afford to do it, nor can the indebted US. And Russia has better things on which to invest its money at home.
Posted by: Gavin Longmuir | Aug 21 2025 1:15 utc | 154
——-
Lol, now for YOU to be realistic! I can’t see Europe EVER letting Ukraine be supported by China. There’re just too inherently racist, and think themselves superior to Asians. AND, the US does not want “the invasion of China westwards via its “Road”. The US would energetically thwart that.
No, my reasoning is that the only true friend the 404 Slavs have is their cousins in Mother Russia. It would be a clever and profitable project for RF to assist in rebuilding Ukraine over time. Who else? Not Kiev, not the US, EU is broke and won’t give a shit anout Ukraine once it is beaten.
I’d be really surprised if China gets ever gets any kind of reconstructive foothold in Ukraine.
Posted by: Indulis Kradzins | Aug 21 2025 7:08 utc | 181
When you look at the pictures and videos of the Ukrainian heroes’ cemeteries, the casualty figures mentioned are realistic.
Posted by: guest from franconia | Aug 21 2025 7:14 utc | 182
Posted by: Fred777 | Aug 20 2025 16:56 utc | 16
If the cost of 1 dead Russian is 11 dead Ukrainians. Well, that’s an even dozen dead Slavs, western elites can live with that.
That copium is weak because, obviously, Russia is also adding population from annexations of former Ukrainian territories and from migration of Ukrainians into Russia.
A rough estimate is that for each Russian soldier dead, Russia is gaining 40-50 new citizens, while for each ukrop dead, 5-8 new citizens.
Essentially, our political elites are strengthening the Great Slav Power at the cost of hundred billions of our treasury and the consumption of our military materiel and, less importantly, the consumption of a weakened and degenerate fraction of the Slav population.
Only current Western elites can be so imbecilic.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Aug 21 2025 8:36 utc | 183
Only current Western elites can be so imbecilic.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Aug 21 2025 8:36 utc | 183
They are Jews…. what did you expect?
Posted by: flyby | Aug 21 2025 8:49 utc | 184
Posted by: Suresh | Aug 21 2025 5:34 utc | 174
I think the US achieved a 12:1 kill rate during Operation Apache Snow (where the battle of ‘Hamburger Hill’ occurred) and that’s including US KIA from friendly fire and not including NVA losses that couldn’t be directly confirmed by bodycount.
The press had a direct role in mischaracterising the battle, no surprises there, by Life magazine infamously publishing the faces of all the 200+ killed in one week of the war. Only five were from the battle but most viewers thought that all of them had fallen during it. As I said one of the most myth laden modern wars around.
Wonder how long support would continue in Russia if the press did the same, or for that matter in Ukraine?
Posted by: Suresh | Aug 21 2025 5:59 utc | 176
Not a cheap shot at all, sorry you thought that. Soviet soldiers in Afghanistan were treated far worse than their US Vietnam counterparts, both in the field and upon their return. Veterans in any war often suffer problems with readjustment, with often professional soldiers suffering more than conscripts, upon release, due to the evaporation of a sometimes decades old support network, ethos and existential worth.
I’m not belittling the impact war has on some individuals, just responding to the cheap shot and cliched view of Vietnam veterans (possibly the most misunderstood conflict, even though, or because of, mass media coverage which set the narrative). It’s gradually improving, with the help of online support though ironically some have suggested conscription might help bridge the gulf between the two sectors.
I’ve professionally studied the complex relationships between the civilian and military sectors and always came away with how both sides had quite stereotypical views about the other, which makes transition from one to other harder.
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 21 2025 1:17 utc | 156
Just about to respond with my previous frontages, roughly 125km div, 65km brig, 30+km reg, 15km batt, 7-8km co, 4km plt, when this popped up
https://mwi.westpoint.edu/the-army-and-the-new-paradigm-of-ground-combat-lessons-from-ukraines-failed-2023-counteroffensive/
A US brigade is now expected to conduct stabilisation operations over a 100km front, now given the size difference between NATO and Russian brigades that’s close to the 65km I calculated.
Note the constant demand to disperse and frontage expansion, technology equates to inflation of AO/AR’s and type of missions conducted. As I said three years ago, this was going to be a Lego war, with units coming together only briefly to achieve mass, before the bricks rapidly disperse, or an empty battlefield where schwerepunkts disappear as quickly as they appeared.
As for the origin of the hack, it could possibly be Russian, or Team Trump playing big boys rules with the DS, taking down their operations using any means necessary. They’re tearing through key DS personnel by targeting professional and personal corrupt practices, suppression of Ukrainian casualty figures is no different to faking your mortgage loan, or the DC crime figures, or jobs created to artificially maintain high interest rates, or numbers and status of migrants. The source for all these corrupt practices are the same, so the instruments of removal might differ but the motive doesn’t.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 21 2025 8:52 utc | 185
How many cirvillians have been killed in Ukraine ?
I’m thinking of pro Russian residents in eastern ukraine killed by the pro ukraine side.
I remember in the begining of the SMO and earlyer we saw a lot of brutalality by the ukies and murder of civilians. Clearly that reporting has now been sucssesfully represt.
Takeing the above into account, i would suggest over 2 million ukes killed. A lot by their fellow ukies.
Or am i wrong ?
Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 21 2025 8:54 utc | 186
Posted by: vargas | Aug 20 2025 20:03 utc | 78
————————————
Dear Vargas, you have not to go silent, you could just stop repeating over and over the three basic statements:
– Putin is weak
– The West does not fear Putin
– Ukrainian are happily willing to die for the West values
The last polls say that a majority of Ukrainians wants the conflict to end.
If the West really does not fear Putin, it would be involved directly instead of using a proxy. And even for the UK and France proposal to send boots in Ukraine “if a deal is made for a ceasefire”, it would not be at the front. Because the West has no intention to suffer killing.
Posted by: scc | Aug 21 2025 8:57 utc | 187
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 20 2025 18:21 utc | 42
Problem is the numbers are too low earlier (2022-2023), and 2025 is excessive, no way around that.
Those figures look super realistic, describing an asymptotic rise typical of compensated dynamical processes.
FYI, the killing off of the ukrop male population of military age is a dynamical process subject to compensation because total consumption is capped.
In fact, my only suspicion is that the data fall too nicely into an asymptotic curve.
For reference, the number of German soldiers killed from 39 to 45 follows a similar asymptotic curve. In fact, over 50% of all German soldiers killed were terminated in 44 and 45, and 45 has more deaths than 44 even though the war ended before mid-45.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Aug 21 2025 9:01 utc | 188
Posted by: Eol | Aug 20 2025 21:34 utc | 110
Yeah the problem is that we’ve spent hundred billions at a time of great economic weakness, enormous amounts of military materiel, and our credibility and standing vis-a-vis the RoW, and Russia is still getting bigger.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Aug 21 2025 9:17 utc | 189
In less than one week we have seen the true nature of trump and the europian leaders idea of peace with Russia.
It never excisted.
They are “agreement incapable” clearly.
Trump says if there were a ceasfire the US would consider air cover for security to ukraine. That would remove security for Russia.
And buy the west time to reinforce the ukies with both arms and army.
Sorry but its just curupting the terms peace and ceacefire for ….Russian capitulation.
Why would Russia snatch defeat from the jaws of its presant victory ?
Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 21 2025 9:20 utc | 190
Well it seems things have started in earnest between the US, Russia, the EU.
It does seem quite likely, according to what senior participants (Witkoff) said about the Anchorage meeting, that the Russian government would be content in having just the Donbass and leaving Zaporozhie, Kherson, Kharkov, Sumy, etc.. Not to even speak about Odessa, to the West.
Nothing is done yet, but it seems to me there are two alternatives :
– Alternative #1 : This is indeed what’s currently been negotiated. In this case, this leaves most of the commentariat here with a lot of eggs on their faces, except Anonymous, shadowbanned, and yours truly. Because the fairy tale that’s been told here for the better part of 3 years is that Russia was mercilessly attriting Ukraine and NATO and would one day (tomorrow ? In 3 months ? 2 years ? nobody knows the fuck when) simply walk across Ukraine up to the Polish border. Odessa ahoy ! What will the Z-idiots say when Russia is calling it quits and stays content with keeping an undefendable Donbass which will have been thoroughly wasted, because according to military geniuses here it’s a lot better to have the fight happend over your territory, blowing up your industrial assets, than in the enemy’s territory, like Lvov for instance.
– Alternative #2 : this is an elaborate, 5D chess style ploy by Putin who is leading Trump by the nose. Strangely, all the senior elite around Trump is unable to see this, only some clever commentators at MoA have understood that Putin absolutely intends to conquer all of Ukraine, but is toying with Trump and the entire US establishment. Said establishment as well as all the intelligence apparatus are unable to see or even suspect what is obvious to a bunch of random Moon barflies who can cleverly intuit the secret strategy of the Kremlin – while berating people like us when they question the fact that all Russian military decisions seem taken by a bunch of craven drunkards and telling us that we do not have the necessary IQ to understand the clever plans the mysterious geniuses in the Russian headquarters are concocting.
I don’t know about you, but what does seems obvious to me currently is :
– Territory is paramount. The more you get, the better your leverage during negotiations is.
– Russia hasn’t been able to get more territory in the last 3 years because it hasn’t been able to.
– Russia won’t be able to get territory at a significantly faster pace than today, which would mean several years just to be able to claim Donetsk and Lugansk as a whole.
– Russia is taking significant economic hits, and its economy is in a bad shape. As such, they are interested in a deal.
– The whole SMO has been a vast disappointment and has exposed the Russian military as a good, but limited fighting force. It has enabled NATO, the EU and the US to slowly rearm and demonstrate that it’s possible to have a minor country (Ukraine) keep Russia engaged and in check for several years. It has also enabled the West to defang Russia’s nuclear triad and expose Putin’s threats as mostly hollow.
Some here may deny it, but deep down we all know : The Russian military has been exposed. It’s just inefficient, corrupt, badly managed ; the procurement is a complete mess, the industrial base relies on refurbishing old Soviet supplies. There is an interesting level of innovation pushed at the base by motivated individuals, but overall it seems clear Russia in the future will only be a regional power unable to project overseas or to influence the near abroad.
In the last 2 years, almost all of Russia’s neighbours have reorientated to the West. Russia has lost Azerbaijan, Armena, Kazakhstan, is on track to lose Belarus. If I were the Kremlin, I would start worrying about thwarting a color revolution home, because that’s what will happen.
Posted by: Micron | Aug 21 2025 9:30 utc | 191
Micron @ 191
Macron is that you.
You clearly havent thought that through have you.
Ther wont be a world without Russia or its culture.
I’l leave you to think that through and join the dots.
I recomend foresight rather than hindsight.
Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 21 2025 9:41 utc | 192
>Russia is taking significant economic hits, and its economy is in a bad shape. >As such, they are interested in a deal.
It’s simply amazing that claims such as this are presented without a shred of supporting evidence. Why don’t you go read the Economist, or spend a few minutes with Grok to pull some actual data:
Below is a comparison of the forecasted GDP growth rates for Russia, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom in 2025, based on the most recent available data from web sources and posts on X:
Russia:
Forecasted GDP growth rate of 0.9% to 2.0%. Estimates vary, with the IMF projecting 0.9% (,) and some sources citing up to 2.0% (). The Russian Central Bank warns of near-zero growth by the end of 2025 due to fading war-driven expansion, labor shortages, high inflation (8–9.8%), and declining resource prices (,). Military spending, which accounts for ~40% of government expenditure, has propped up growth but is unsustainable.
Germany:
Forecasted GDP growth rate of 0.1% to 0.3%. The IMF projects 0.3% (), while some sources indicate 0.1% (,). Germany’s economy faces challenges from trade barriers, elevated policy uncertainty, and a slight contraction in Q2 2025 (-0.1%) (,).
United Kingdom:
Forecasted GDP growth rate of 1.2% to 1.3%. The IMF slightly raised its forecast to 1.2% (,,), while the OECD projects 1.3% (). The UK is expected to outperform other European G7 members but faces headwinds from trade tensions and post-Brexit challenges ().
France:
Forecasted GDP growth rate of 0.6% to 0.8%. The IMF estimates 0.6% (,,), with some projections reaching 0.8% (). France’s growth is supported by consumption but limited by trade disruptions and modest demand (,).
Summary of Growth Rates (2025):
United Kingdom: 1.2%–1.3%
Russia: 0.9%–2.0%
France: 0.6%–0.8%
Germany: 0.1%–0.3%
Key Insights:The UK is projected to have the highest GDP growth rate among these countries, potentially the fastest-growing major European economy in the G7, though smaller economies like Poland (3.5%) and Spain (2.5%) are expected to grow faster ().
Russia’s growth is slowing significantly from 2024’s 3.2%–3.9% due to structural constraints, with some optimistic estimates (e.g., 4.2%–4.8% in) likely overstated given warnings of stagnation (,).
Germany and France are expected to see sluggish growth, with Germany particularly weak due to trade and policy challenges, while France benefits slightly from stronger domestic demand.
All countries face global economic uncertainties, including U.S. tariff policies and trade fragmentation, which could further dampen growth (,).
So Russia is doing better than France and Germany, with the UK somewhat surprisingly the top performing economy in 2025. There are some warnings of slowing growth, but hardly enough to justify calling it ‘significant economic hits’. If you are going to claim that this is significant, then at least be non-biased and admit that Germany and France are getting hit harder.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Aug 21 2025 9:46 utc | 193
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Aug 21 2025 9:01 utc | 188
Logarithmic improvement/deterioration in capabilities usually create exponential casualty rates, rapidly overwhelming absorption mechanisms.
The endgame, whilst increasing enemy casualties, usually has two counter-intuitive side-effects.
Existential and professional concepts cause some enemy units to fight more fiercely, correspondingly friendly troops can become more reluctant the closer they sense the war is ending and lose that feeling of existential threat.
It’s also a phase where a unit’s ‘rock’ (the big, or gut-full men) can start to crumble as the strain and sudden realisation of mortality (previously uninjured or recently seen friend killed) finally takes it’s toll. The Ukrainian ‘elite’ units, risk sudden drops in effectiveness, (Russian counterparts less so due to rotations, but still a possibility), which again increases casualties.
Finally, quick note about the casualty rates per year. Don’t forget ‘22 was largely fought with the Ukrainian’s benefitting from decade old fortification lines helping minimise some territorial unit’s lack of tactical competence. Also, in the early stages, Ukrainian units capability, in retreating, and Russia’s lack of preventing it, allowed the former to retain core competencies and equipment. A situation largely missing later on with Russia’s devolved ISR improvements and platform integration capabilities (kill chain times reduced, more effective CAS, etc).
Posted by: Milites | Aug 21 2025 9:48 utc | 194
Ghost of zanon @ 193
Less than two weeks ago brtain on starmers orders, closed down its entire biomass fuil industry ! As a gesture of submission to trump/US.
That tells us how weak britain is under the fascist jack boot of starmer and all 3 uk pol partys, trump and netinyahoo.
Here in not so great britain. Its a emptiy hollowed out shell.
Starmer is weak and cant fight Russia without bully boy trump.
Its a playground mentaility.
Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 21 2025 9:58 utc | 195
Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 21 2025 9:58 utc | 195
I was generally under the impression that things were bad over there. The GDP number is surprising, but let’s not get too carried away. GDP is just one measurement; we should look at debt/GDP and inflation numbers. Russia has a very low debt/GDP. Inflation seems to be coming back everywhere, yet the BoE keeps cutting rates, which sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Aug 21 2025 10:09 utc | 196
Ghost of zanon @ 196
I think thats a spot on estimation of yours.
Respect.
The natives are revolting !!!
Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 21 2025 10:15 utc | 197
Government spending is included in GDP, so deficit spending is counted as growth. One of the many tricks played.
Posted by: seer | Aug 21 2025 10:20 utc | 198
Ukraine peace talks were in disarray on Wednesday after Russia effectively demanded Moscow and Beijing get a veto on any security guarantees.
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff said Vladimir Putin had agreed to ‘game-changing Article 5-like protections’ for Kyiv when they met in Alaska last Friday.
European leaders raced to build on the momentum and hammer out the details – with Britain and France considering putting boots on the ground while America would protect the skies.
But yesterday serious questions arose over what exactly Mr Witkoff had secured as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow must be part of the security guarantees.
Putin’s man also said these ‘should be provided on an equal basis with the participation of countries such as China, the United States, the UK and France’.
Lavrov added: ‘I’m sure in the West they understand that seriously discussing security issues without Russia is a utopia, it’s a road to nowhere.’
He claimed the terms are based on those Moscow tried to force Kyiv into signing in Istanbul in April 2022, two months after their invasion. Those terms effectively meant none of the guarantors would be allowed to defend Ukraine from Russia unless they all agreed, including China and Russia.
Lavrov took aim at what he called Europe’s ‘clumsy attempts to change the position of the US President’ in recent days.
Posted by: Jo | Aug 21 2025 10:28 utc | 199
I’m afraid the only way to stop this mess is the Ukrainians themselves to realize that western support was, is and will be toxic and to put an end to it. The 1.7 million MIA/KIA could help.
Posted by: scc | Aug 21 2025 10:29 utc | 200