The outcome of yesterday's three hours meeting between President Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and President Putin of Russia was surprising.
The presidents seem to have agreed on a meeting, the first in four years between the two head of states.
As Yury Ushakov, an aide to President Putin, commented after Witkoff's visit:
This meeting took place in a business-like atmosphere and was quite constructive. Both sides can be satisfied with the outcomes of this conversation. The discussion focused on matters dealing with future efforts to work together in the context of resolving the Ukraine crisis. Once again, it was noted that Russia-US relations could be placed on a totally different, mutually beneficial footing, which would be in stark contrast with the way these relations have evolved in recent years.
Regarding the Ukraine agenda, at the proposal of the United States, there was a principled agreement to hold a top-level bilateral meeting in the coming days, which means a meeting between presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.
Together with our American colleagues, we are about to start working on the specific parameters of this meeting and its venue. Basically, the venue has also been coordinated, and we will communicate on this point a little later.
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Next week was suggested as a possible time frame [for holding the meeting], but since the effort to prepare for this important event is only just beginning for both parties, it is hard to say how long the preparations will take. That said, the option of holding this meeting sometime next week was on the table, and we hold quite a positive view in this regard.
This U.S. side has confirmed the news of a summit which may potentially already take place next week.
The urgency with which the U.S. side requested the summit tells us that the Ukrainian army is near to a breakdown and total defeat.
It seems that President Putin has offered Trump a big deal – one that goes far beyond the rather annoying side issue of Ukraine.
This could could include offers of new agreements on nuclear arms restrictions and other questions of global interest. But Trump's interests are mostly driven by their economic impact. A Russian offer to allow for huge investment opportunities in Russia for U.S. companies on preferential grounds might have been the real winner. Additionally sanctions could be lifted and air-traffic between the countries could resume. Both sides could profit from these points.
But before these big things can happen the Ukraine issue must be put aside.
Russia's demands in this regard have been named for some time. A simple ceasefire at the line of contact is not sufficient. Russia wants full control of the four oblast (Donetzk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaparoizhia) which were already included into the Russian constitution. It wants a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO and that it will lose the military support it currently has from the West.
Trump might be willing to concede those points. A majority of Ukrainians wants to end the war:
In Gallup’s most recent poll of Ukraine — conducted in early July — 69% say they favor a negotiated end to the war as soon as possible, compared with 24% who support continuing to fight until victory.
Even Zelenski now seems to agree with them (machine translation):
"Yesterday, various potential formats of meetings for peace at the level of leaders in the near future were discussed: two bilateral formats, one trilateral. Ukraine is not afraid of meetings and expects the same bold approach from the Russian side. It's time to end the war, " the Ukrainian president wrote.
But warmongers in Washington, in Europe and in Ukraine will try to sabotage anything that may lead to peace.
There are also smaller steps that could be sold as the success of a summit. A pause of long range drone attacks would be a noticeable though minimal concession that could be beneficial for both sides.
But overall I am not optimistic about an outcome.
It will be difficult to even establish an agenda for the meeting. Secretary of State Rubio and Foreign Minister Lavrov will need some time to haggle over the details. If the summit proceeds it might well end without results.
The whole thing could be a ploy. Trump may tell Putin to surrender and, as Putin will certainly not do so, use the summit to declare that Russia is guilty and must be punished by more sanction and other means. U.S. support for Ukraine would then resume.
It would not change the inevitable outcome but prolong the war for probably more than a year.