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Ukraine – Trump Continues To Humiliate Europe
Nothing changed due to yesterday's meetings.
Ukraine offers $100bn weapons deal to Trump to win security guarantees (archived) – Financial Times, Aug 19 2025
Ukraine will promise to buy $100bn of American weapons financed by Europe in a bid to obtain US guarantees for its security after a peace settlement with Russia, according to a document seen by the Financial Times.
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Alexander G. Rubio @AlexanderGRubi2 – 2:22 UTC · Aug 19, 2025
The plan is for the US to sell weapons to the Europeans, who will then provide them to Kiev. However, the US doesn’t have the weapons to sell, the Europeans don’t have the money to buy, and Kiev doesn’t have the soldiers to use them. Other than that it's a foolproof plan.
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[Putin] noted that these individuals have “happily carried out any order from the president in Washington under Biden,” but “got confused when Trump suddenly won” the November election.
“They just don’t like Trump, they actively fought him, interfered in political life, in the US election… Trump has different ideas about what is good and what is bad, including in gender policy, in some other issues, and they don’t like it,” Putin said. […]
“I assure you, Trump, with his character and persistence, will restore order quite quickly. And all of them, you’ll see, soon all of them will stand at the master’s feet and gently wag their tails,” Putin argued.
European leaders will ‘wag tails’ for Trump – Putin – RT, Feb 2 2025
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Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand – 7:48 UTC · Aug 19, 2025
This is beyond parody: not only is the EU doing virtually nothing to escape the protection racket it's under with the US, it's now supposed to pay for Ukraine's…
All the more absurd when one considers that NATO expansion – the institutionalization of this protection racket – was the primary catalyst for this conflict.
Europe Demands ‘Security Guarantees’ For Ukraine … Russia Can Give Those
Later today U.S. President Donald Trump will meet the (former) Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski to talk about the results of last week's summit between Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin. As a result of that summit both sides declared that the war in Ukraine must be ended with an all-encompassing peace agreement. That again will require for Ukraine to give up on certain territories and to become a neutral country.
Zelenski will try to induce Trump to return to his previous position. Trump had earlier demanded an immediate ceasefire from Russia at the current frontline. But after trying he had found that he had no way to achieving that. Trump had to agree to Russia positions because there was no other way left to end the war in Ukraine.
Trump is notoriously prone to change his position from one talk to another. This time however I believe that he will stick to his agreement with Putin.
Zelenski will be told to file for peace with Russia under whatever condition Russia will demand from him.
After the talk with Zelenski Trump will have a meet and greet with a bunch of European premiers, chancellors and presidents. They want the war to continue which requires to keep the U.S. involved in it.
Their main talking point and request will be a 'security guarantee' for Ukraine which, they say, will require U.S. involvement and backing.
Being asked about it during an interview Trump's Russia envoy Stephen Witkoff gave a polite response:
“The United States is potentially prepared to be able to give Article 5 security guarantees, but not from NATO — directly from the United States and other European countries,” Witkoff said in a “Fox News Sunday” interview.
The meaning of "is … potentially … prepared … to be able … " in this context must be translated into "No way that's gonna happen!"
Two years ago I had already discussed the question of security guarantees for Ukraine:
Cont. reading: Europe Demands ‘Security Guarantees’ For Ukraine … Russia Can Give Those
Palestine Open Thread 2025-187
News & views related to the war in Palestine …
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-186
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2025-185
Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2025-185
Summarizing The Summit
The summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin was shorter than had been planned. But it was mostly successful.
Trump had urgently needed the meeting. He had pushed for a ceasefire in Ukraine. He had threatened to impose secondary sanctions against buyers of Russia's oil to press Russia towards that.
But Russia did not budge. Its interest is to eliminate the root cause of the war in Ukraine – the expansion of NATO towards Russia's borders. A ceasefire would only have paused the war but would not have solved the underlying issue.
For Trump the threat of secondary sanctions had become a trap. Some rather mild addition of tariffs against India had led to a strong backlash. India did not stop buying Russian oil but turned away from the U.S. to endorse Brics, Russia and China. Imposing secondary sanctions against China would have escalated into a trade war with China which the U.S. has no way to win.
The summit created a win for each side.
Trump acknowledged that a ceasefire was not possible and that the war needs to end with an all-encompassing peace agreement:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump – Aug 16, 2025, 8:46 UTC
A great and very successful day in Alaska! The meeting with President Vladimir Putin of Russia went very well, as did a late night phone call with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine, and various European Leaders, including the highly respected Secretary General of NATO. It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up. President Zelenskyy will be coming to D.C., the Oval Office, on Monday afternoon. If all works out, we will then schedule a meeting with President Putin. Potentially, millions of people’s lives will be saved. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
After he had given Putin that part of the cake Trump took his own piece.
In an interview (vid) with Foxnews after the summit Trump was asked about imposing sanctions. He responded: "Well, because the meeting went so well, we don’t have to think about that now.”
There will be no ceasefire to freeze the conflict and there will be no sanctions. Both sides can count that as wins.
The task of ending the conflict was tossed off to Zelensky and Europe:
Without hesitating, Trump said that his advice to Zelenskyy after Friday’s meeting with Putin would be "make a deal."
On Monday Zelenski will be told to give up and to make peace with Russia. European protests against that will be ignored.
“The Ukrainian Soldier … is just not there.”
During the last week Russian forces managed to breach into the rear of the Ukrainian defense line:
During the last three days Russian forces achieved a major breakthrough. After the heavy bombardment of Ukrainian positions with over 1,300 FAB bombs Russian detachments moved north of the salient (green) they had built between the semi-encircled cities Pokrovsk and Konstantinivka.
They have reached and breached the well built second Donbas fortification line (in yellow) which had been dug over the last year.
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The Ukrainian supply line along the T-05-14 road between Dobropilla and Kramatorsk has been cut. Beyond that line is open space.
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Prepared ditches and other positions are no longer manned. Russian troops can infiltrate through the thinly manned lines. Ukrainian drone units, which are supposed to cover the holes in the frontline, are getting suppressed by Russian bombing and counter drone forces. Confusion sets in once Russian diversion teams appear in the rear.
The Ukrainian army has ordered parts of its 'elite' Azov forces from Izyum in the north towards the Pokrovsk area to counter the Russian breakthrough. They will be too little too late to make a difference.
At least six brigades of Ukrainian forces were pulled from other parts of the front in an attempt to check the Russian breach of the line. Some were ambushed while on the way others while taking up their new positions. Theose who arrived did not manage to change the map.
Pulling these forces from other parts of the frontline will leave holes in those parts for Russian forces to further attack through. The breakthrough will thus be repeated elsewhere. This process can be repeated and repeated until the whole Ukrainian defense breaks down and the army retreats in panic.
Only a few of the western defense analysts have seen this coming. One is Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting. He has good relation with many Ukrainian officers and has regularly visited units at the frontline.
Below are excerpts from a long interview with him that was published yesterday in Rzeczpospolita, the Polish 'paper of record'.
Ukraine lacks troops, not equipment
Excerpts (machine translated, edited for clarity):
You recently returned from another visit to Ukraine. What is the current situation at the front?
The Russians continue to maintain the strategic initiative along the entire length of the front. Apart from very local counterattacks, the Ukrainians are retreating. The Russian Federation forces are very strongly advancing on several axes, especially in the area of the Battles of Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, the village of Novosilka, and recently in Zaporozhia, that is, in the deep south.
It is worrying that Russia's territorial gains, especially in July, were quite significant and larger than in previous months. The Russians have advanced 10-12 km along several axes. This is something we haven't seen before. If there were any territorial conquests before, they were concentrated around one area. Now we have several areas where the front is starting to leak.
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What to expect in the coming weeks?
Cont. reading: “The Ukrainian Soldier … is just not there.”
Some Thoughts On The Upcoming Summit
After reading some 20+ pieces about the upcoming Trump-Putin talks I still have no idea of what the outcome might be. Trump's uttering about the talks and Ukraine are, as usually, all over the place.
There seems to be some agreements already between the parties. If it were not so there would be no summit.
The Russian side is aiming at much more than Ukraine. The size and high ranks of its delegation is otherwise unexplained:
The Kremlin aide noted the very high level of the Russian delegation, which he said would include Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Ushakov himself, Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, and Special Presidential Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries Kirill Dmitriev, who has been a key figure in the Ukraine settlement process.
“In addition to the presidents, five members from each delegation will participate in the negotiations,” he said, adding that “of course, a group of experts will also be nearby.”
There are nuclear weapon agreements that need an update and renewal. There are development opportunities in the Arctic and other economic aspects where both sides could win.
In fact, I suspect that there will be no decisions about the war in Ukraine.
The U.S. side knows that the war is a lost cause. Russia holds, as Trump has said, all the cards in that game. Whatever Trump does or says the war will be won on the ground by Russian forces. The best for him is to pull the U.S. out of the conflict and to leave the problem for the European vassals to solve.
For Russia the summit will be a big win even if there were no outcome. It has proven to global majority that it is reasonable and willing to go the extra mile to meet Trump even on U.S. territory. After this there will be no more pressure from China or India to stop the war.
Palestine Open Thread 2025-184
News & views related to the war in Palestine …
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-183
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2025-182
News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine …
Ukraine – Russian Troops Breach Into Second Donbas Defense Line
Nearly two weeks ago I wrote about the four Ukrainian cities which are about to fall to the Russian forces:
The political chaos in Kiev is reinforced by the catastrophic situation on the battle field. There are four significant population centers which are likely to fall under Russian control within the next month.
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1. Kupiansk …
2. Siversk …
3. Konstantinivka …
4. Prokovsk (pre-war population 85,000) – Ukrainian defense lines around and within the city have broken down. Russian forces are already in the city. Supply and exit routes to the north and west are barely passable.
The Ukrainian forces lack infantry. Some Ukrainian brigades have less than 100 people to man several miles long defense lines. There is a severe lack of mortar and artillery ammunition. The Russian side has more and better drones available in higher numbers. The recent re-organization of the Ukrainian army into corps sized structures has only increase the organizational chaos.
The Ukrainian army, like the Ukrainian state, is in the process of falling apart.
Recent developments confirm that take.
During the last three days Russian forces achieved a major breakthrough. After the heavy bombardment of Ukrainian positions with over 1,300 FAB bombs Russian detachments moved north of the salient (green) they had built between the semi-encircled cities Pokrovsk and Konstantinivka.
They have reached and breached the well built second Donbas fortification line (in yellow) which had been dug over the last year.
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The Ukrainian supply line along the T-05-14 road between Dobropilla and Kramatorsk has been cut. Beyond that line is open space.
Cont. reading: Ukraine – Russian Troops Breach Into Second Donbas Defense Line
Trump Extorts Companies To Pay Taxes On Exports
U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs under the false claim that certain trade imbalances with other countries created a national emergency.
This is contested in courts and should have no legal standing. As the U.S. constitution explicitly says:
No State shall, without the Consent of the Congress, lay any Imposts or Duties on Imports or Exports, …
Congress has not been asked to and has not consented to the arbitrary tariffs imposed by Trump since he, on April 2, declared his fake 'Liberation Day'.
Moreover, Trump did not impose tariffs to balance trade. He immediately weaponized them by trying to to impose (archived) U.S. policy goals, as well as interests of individual companies, on foreign countries:
This month, State Department officials considered demanding that U.S. trading partners vote against an international effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by the oceangoing container ships that are the backbone of global trade. In a draft “action memo,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio was told that department officials had sought “to inject this issue into the ongoing bilateral trade negotiations” with maritime nations such as Singapore.
That move came after administration officials this past spring debated broadening trade negotiations with more than a dozen nations, including by requiring Israel to eliminate a Chinese company’s control of a key port and insisting that South Korea publicly support deploying U.S. troops to deter China as well as Seoul’s traditional rival, North Korea, the documents said.
Administration officials saw trade talks as an opportunity to achieve objectives that went far beyond Trump’s oft-stated goal of reducing the chronic U.S. trade deficit. In the first weeks after the president paused his “reciprocal” tariffs April 9 to allow for negotiations, officials drew up plans to press countries near China for a closer defense relationship, including the purchase of U.S. equipment and port visits, the documents said.
Tariff impositions have thus become a form of blackmailing at large.
This was not only done to pursue general U.S. foreign policy interests but also in favor of individual, U.S. owned companies:
Cont. reading: Trump Extorts Companies To Pay Taxes On Exports
RIP – Anas al-Sharif
This hurts:
Anas al-Sharif among five Al Jazeera staff killed by Israel in Gaza – AlJazeerah, Aug 10 2025
Al Jazeera staff killed in targeted Israeli attack on a tent housing journalists near al-Shifa Hospital, Gaza City.
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أنس الشريف Anas Al-Sharif @AnasAlSharif0 – 22:25 UTC · Aug 10, 2025
This is my will and my final message. If these words reach you, know that Israel has succeeded in killing me and silencing my voice. First, peace be upon you and Allah’s mercy and blessings.
Allah knows I gave every effort and all my strength to be a support and a voice for my people, ever since I opened my eyes to life in the alleys and streets of the Jabalia refugee camp. My hope was that Allah would extend my life so I could return with my family and loved ones to our original town of occupied Asqalan (Al-Majdal). But Allah’s will came first, and His decree is final. I have lived through pain in all its details, tasted suffering and loss many times, yet I never once hesitated to convey the truth as it is, without distortion or falsification—so that Allah may bear witness against those who stayed silent, those who accepted our killing, those who choked our breath, and whose hearts were unmoved by the scattered remains of our children and women, doing nothing to stop the massacre that our people have faced for more than a year and a half.
I entrust you with Palestine—the jewel in the crown of the Muslim world, the heartbeat of every free person in this world. I entrust you with its people, with its wronged and innocent children who never had the time to dream or live in safety and peace. Their pure bodies were crushed under thousands of tons of Israeli bombs and missiles, torn apart and scattered across the walls.
I urge you not to let chains silence you, nor borders restrain you. Be bridges toward the liberation of the land and its people, until the sun of dignity and freedom rises over our stolen homeland.
Cont. reading: RIP – Anas al-Sharif
Palestine Open Thread 2025-181
News & views related to the war in Palestine …
Ukraine Open Thread 2025-180
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2025-179
Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2025-179
Ukraine – Setting The Stage For U.S.-Russia Talks
(Sorry for light posting. I am traveling and busy with family things …)
A few headlines and pieces around the upcoming U.S.-Russia talks:
How backchannel talks via Belarus / Lukashenko led to those:
Zelenski in panic:
Warning from Russia:
European set conditions to sabotage talks:
Have at it.
Palestine Open Thread 2025-178
News & views related to the war in Palestine …
Ukraine – Trump And Putin To Hold Peace Talks – OT 2025-177
The outcome of yesterday's three hours meeting between President Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and President Putin of Russia was surprising.
The presidents seem to have agreed on a meeting, the first in four years between the two head of states.
As Yury Ushakov, an aide to President Putin, commented after Witkoff's visit:
This meeting took place in a business-like atmosphere and was quite constructive. Both sides can be satisfied with the outcomes of this conversation. The discussion focused on matters dealing with future efforts to work together in the context of resolving the Ukraine crisis. Once again, it was noted that Russia-US relations could be placed on a totally different, mutually beneficial footing, which would be in stark contrast with the way these relations have evolved in recent years.
Regarding the Ukraine agenda, at the proposal of the United States, there was a principled agreement to hold a top-level bilateral meeting in the coming days, which means a meeting between presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.
Together with our American colleagues, we are about to start working on the specific parameters of this meeting and its venue. Basically, the venue has also been coordinated, and we will communicate on this point a little later.
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Next week was suggested as a possible time frame [for holding the meeting], but since the effort to prepare for this important event is only just beginning for both parties, it is hard to say how long the preparations will take. That said, the option of holding this meeting sometime next week was on the table, and we hold quite a positive view in this regard.
This U.S. side has confirmed the news of a summit which may potentially already take place next week.
The urgency with which the U.S. side requested the summit tells us that the Ukrainian army is near to a breakdown and total defeat.
It seems that President Putin has offered Trump a big deal – one that goes far beyond the rather annoying side issue of Ukraine.
Cont. reading: Ukraine – Trump And Putin To Hold Peace Talks – OT 2025-177
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