Two days ago the (former) President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelenski dismantled the 'independence' of the specialized police (NABU) and prosecution (SAPO) organizations which are supposed to fight high level corruption.
It took less than 24 hours from the introduction of the law to get it passed through parliament and signed by the president. NABU and SAPO are now under the control of the prosecutor general who is under the direct control of the presidency.
There is no straight answer yet as to why Zelenski decided to do this right now.
NABU had just recently released corruption allegations against then deputy prime minister Oleksiy Chernyshov, a person who is near to Zelenski. There are rumors that NABU was preparing to release accusations against other members of Zelenski's inner circle.
Some speculate that NABU was to be used to restrain Zelenski from making concessions to Russia. Others speculate that NABU had to be reigned in because it was used to pressure Zelenski towards a peace plan.
Either way Zelenski will have hoped that the U.S. would not respond to the move. NABU and SAPO were created on behest of then Vice-President Joe Biden and played a role in the Russiagate allegations against Donald Trump. Biden had used NABU and accusations of corruption to control politics in Kiev. The European Union, Zelenski may have thought, would not protest because that would endanger its efforts to use Ukraine to fight Russia.
Those calculations have been wrong (archived):
Ukraine’s western backers rushed to try to persuade Zelenskyy to change course. French President Emmanuel Macron and European Council president António Costa phoned him on Tuesday in a last-ditch effort to dissuade him, according to people familiar with the matter.
G7 ambassadors in Kyiv also urged a rethink during a meeting that afternoon with Kravchenko and Ukraine’s spy chief Vasyl Malyuk, who tried to smooth western concerns.
The envoys found themselves confined to a room without their phones for more than two hours, which one diplomat described as an effort to “silence” them and keep them from informing their governments of the fast-moving events in Kyiv.
On Tuesday night protests erupted in Kiev.
On Wednesday Zelenski made the huge mistake of tracking back:
Volodymyr Zelensky has appeared to backtrack on his controversial corruption reform in an attempt to end protests in Ukraine.
The president said he had “heard what people are saying” and decided to propose a new bill in parliament in two weeks’ time.
“Very importantly, all norms for the independence of anti-corruption institutions will be included,” he said.
For a strongman to to make concessions and thereby show weakness is fatal.
Despite the apparent climbdown, thousands still descended onto the streets of Kyiv for a large-scale protest on Wednesday night shortly after the president made the statement.
Some protesters said they did not believe the president’s attempt to address criticism of the reform went far enough.
The EU published its disagreement:
Earlier on Wednesday, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, “conveyed her strong concerns” over the law, her spokesman said.
Brussels chiefs warned Mr Zelensky’s original legislation endangered both supplies of aid and Ukraine’s eventual entry into the European Union.
Western media, which had been strong supporters of Zelenski, suddenly changed course.
The Spectator called Zelensky’s war on Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies a disaster. The Economist writes of a strategic blunder (archived). The Telegraph demands for Zelenski to step aside.
The protests and the change of mood are only the beginning of a storm that has been building for some time (machine translation):
[Y]esterday's "blink" of Zelensky changed the situation.
It is obvious that now the protests will continue and, quite likely, new forces will be involved in them. There are a lot of people who are dissatisfied with Zelensky in the country, including those who are faced with the prospect of complete loss of business and going to prison if the power in the country does not change. For example, Ihor Kolomoisky, whose media is increasingly negative about the authorities' reporting on protest actions. And other oligarchs and just big businessmen are clearly not comfortable with the situation of their complete dependence on Zelensky and the constant fear that they may be sent to prison at any time. And there are also those whose businesses were taken away by the authorities through the hands of security forces, criminal cases were fabricated, thrown into pre-trial detention centers, and sanctions were imposed.
In general, many people can use their resources to join the anti-green movement. In addition, those who are dissatisfied with the forced mobilization or relatives of those who have been mobilized can also join the protests (or organize their own actions). In general, disillusionment with the government and Zelensky personally has been growing in society for a long time, as has the protest potential. But it was prevented from spilling out by the widespread belief that it is impossible to protest during the war. Current promotions have shown that it is possible. Therefore, it is possible that now the protests will go on increasing and on a variety of occasions.
More bad news for Zelenski is coming:
According to Strana's sources in grant circles, the organizers of the protests plan to publish in the media in the near future a number of particularly impressive corruption cases that the NABU investigated against Zelensky's inner circle and top officials. And the number one task is to encourage the military to join the protests. If the latter succeeds, the situation for Zelensky will become really threatening.
All this is already destabilizing the inner situation in Ukraine. Whatever the outcome however it is unlikely to mean peace:
As for Zelensky's resignation, it will not in itself mean a drastic change in the situation. Although conspiracy theories are already spreading that everything that is happening is the implementation of the West's plan to overthrow Zelensky in order to then end the war, the departure of the current president from his post is not equal to ending the war. This can happen only if Vladimir Putin is ready to conclude a truce with Zelensky's replacement, abandoning his current demands such as transferring control over four regions and reducing the Armed Forces of Ukraine. None of the representatives of the current Ukrainian elite, including Zelensky's opponents, intends to fulfill these requirements. Just as no one in the West wants to encourage them to do so.
Things could change though if the Ukrainian military breaks apart.
The situation on the battlefield is dire. There is again a huge shortage of artillery ammunition. The lack of infantry has led to leaky front lines. Over the last days Russian sabotage reconnaissance groups (DRGs) were fighting within Pokrovsk even while the official frontline was still miles away from the city. A Russian push northward of the bulge between Pokrovsk and Konstantinivka went for several miles before meeting some feeble resistance. It is threatening to cut the supplies to both cities.
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The fall of both cities within the next few weeks seems likely.
Meanwhile massive Russian drone and missiles strikes continue to menace industrial and transport facilities far from the frontline.