🇸🇰🇪🇺Fico – on Slovakia approving the 18th EU sanctions package against Russia:
At the moment, dear friends, continuing to block the 18th sanctions package tomorrow would be counterproductive. All possibilities for negotiations have been exhausted at this point, and maintaining our blocking position would already jeopardize our interests. I say this openly and I know what I am talking about. I said this a few days ago. He who wants to live with wolves must howl with them.
We simply need to get through this dark period in the history of this international organization, which we consider our space, while maintaining our positions in the EU. Therefore, I instruct our representatives in the EU to clear the way for the 18th sanctions package tomorrow. However, immediately after that, the second stage of our fight with the European Commission over Russian gas will begin.
If all this does not work, I remind you with a smile that the Brussels officials detached from reality are already hard at work on another, unnecessary this time the nineteenth sanctions package, which will change nothing in Russia itself, but requires unanimity, meaning Slovakia’s vote.

i understand what fico is trying to convey with his wolf analogy. killing the pack leader (going against the eu) would have disastrous consequences for all.
but the reality is, he caved because nobody in the eu would want to deal with consequences, and rather enjoy the “good life” they have now. other peoples lives be damned.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jul 18 2025 14:01 utc | 104

saw a pic in UK press the other day…it implied a current German training ground..guess what I counted 10 Patriot units……

Posted by: Jo | Jul 18 2025 14:09 utc | 106

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jul 18 2025 14:01 utc | 104
########
The role of politicians in the West are to raise hopes and ultimately deliver betrayal.
Fico, like Orban, LARPs as a hero but when confronted by a dragon, pisses down his leg like anyone else.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 18 2025 14:46 utc | 108

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 18 2025 14:46 utc | 108
***************
Both Orban and Fico have opposed Russian sanctions (temporarily) only to promote their own agenda, i.e. interest. Their opposition has always been used as a bargain for getting exemptions, advantage etc, never because they are against the principle of those sanctions. In the end the both bow.

Posted by: scc | Jul 18 2025 15:49 utc | 110

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jul 18 2025 14:01 utc | 104
The reality is that’s how “unanimity” works, by threatening those who jeopardise it. Fico can’t say to have any more nor less gumption than anyone else.

Posted by: Call it what u will | Jul 18 2025 16:28 utc | 112

Sighs…sounds like been trawling desperately for something to say
“Britain has today hit back at Russia with the biggest spy sanctions in history to expose the reckless Kremlin operatives at the heart of Vladimir Putin’s regime.
In an unprecedented package to expose agents operating in the shadows, 18 spies and three military intelligence agency (GRU) units responsible for spreading chaos and disorder on the Russian president’s orders have been named.
They include Ivan Sergeyevich Yermakov, Aleksey Viktorovich Lukashev and their GRU unit 26165, who hacked the emails of Yulia Skripal years before poisoning her and her father, former spy Sergei Skripal, in Salisbury.
The Moscow-based pair, who have gone by various aliases and have even pretended to be women, are alleged to have planted the sinister-sounding ‘X-agent malware’ in 2013, five years before GRU officers’ failed bid to murder the Skripals with the deadly Novichok nerve agent.
Today, Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced that Britain is ‘toughening up’ in the face of Putin’s ‘hybrid threats and aggression’.
The Russian spies named include those involved in the bombing of the Mariupol Theatre in Ukraine, killing hundreds of civilians sheltering there – including children – on March 16, 2022.
The UK has also sanctioned the GRU leaders responsible for cyber attacks on Britain, Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe, including hacking the Paris Olympics last year.

Posted by: Jo | Jul 18 2025 16:33 utc | 114

Posted by: Jo | Jul 18 2025 16:31 utc | 113
Those are launchers. They need a radar unit and a command center and, by the way even a complete battery is useless without interception rockets.
A preemptive strike, with patriots, is clearly non sense.

Posted by: Mario | Jul 18 2025 16:53 utc | 116

Medvedev suggests to “the disgusting hag Ursula” not to be confused by the heart and her former and unsuccessful area of work, the c*nt.
https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/598

Posted by: Paco | Jul 18 2025 17:49 utc | 118

Those are launchers. They need a radar unit and a command center and, by the way even a complete battery is useless without interception rockets.
A preemptive strike, with patriots, is clearly non sense.
Posted by: Mario | Jul 18 2025 16:53 utc | 115

Indeed and each battery is composed of 6 such launchers, meaning there’s only two batteries. Considering they have little ammo for these launchers, and what ammo they do have is pretty ineffective against Russian missiles, this is a dog and pony show. To use Western rhetoric, these are Potemkin Patriots.
The West is trying to bluff the world champion poker player while holding a 2 and a 3 and threatening to shoot themselves in the head if the champ keeps winning.
Good luck with that.
English Outsider, I read your comment and while I canny reply fully, I agree with aspects of what you wrote. The Western military strategic braintrust is composed – apparently – almost exclusively of imbeciles.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 18 2025 18:36 utc | 120

As is increasingly the case with Western supplies to Ukraine, the provision of further Patriot systems is beset with complications:

The Patriot, which Germany wants to send to Ukraine, will be ready only in 6-8 months, Bild writes, citing a source in the German government
The Patriot, which Germany wants to send to Ukraine, will be ready only in 6-8 months, Bild writes, citing a source in the German government.
According to him, it was originally planned that the Americans would transfer air defense systems from their stocks to Ukraine, and Germany would pay for their replenishment. However, Trump pointed out that the US Army could not give up any installations. Europe must provide its own air defense from its arsenals.
Thus, the newspaper writes, it is not enough to pay for weapons for Ukraine. Europe should dismantle its own warehouses and order replacements from the American defense industry.
At the same time, according to the publication, there is a shortage of air defense in Europe. For several days now, there have been closed-door negotiations on who can help Ukraine.
Now, according to Bild, a solution is being formed: Switzerland is moving back in line for Patriot systems. The first installation will go not to Bern, but to Ukraine – at the expense of Germany. But the system is still being finalized by the American company Raytheon and will be ready no earlier than in 6-8 months.
Source: Telegram “newsfrontnotes”

https://news-pravda.com/ukraine/2025/07/18/1526914.html

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 18 2025 19:29 utc | 122

And right on cue, ballistic arrivals in Dnipro city:

Dnipro explosion: a city hit by ballistics
A powerful explosion occurred in Dnipro. The Russians attacked the city with a ballistic missile
This is reported by monitoring channels, reports RegioNews .
At 19: 51, the Ukrainian air force warned that a high-speed target had taken off from the annexed Crimea. Subsequently, monitoring channels reported that Iskander was flying to the Dnieper. Already at about 19:55 explosions thundered in the city.
An air alert is still being issued in the region. Local residents should stay in safe places. There is no information about casualties or damage to the infrastructure yet.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/dnepropetrovshchina/1752858059-u-dnipri-vibuh-misto-pid-udarom-balistiki (via translation add-on.)

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 18 2025 19:56 utc | 124

Must be convenient to report a “failed offensive” that was never even planned when you set up for this narrative in advance.

Posted by: boneless | Jul 18 2025 20:18 utc | 126

Fico and Orban can’t do anything. But at least they say they don’t agree with the decisions and don’t give weapons. And they probably did not expect the smo to last forever either. How long can you realistically delay votes when you depend on Eu’s money?

Posted by: rk | Jul 18 2025 20:46 utc | 128

The US might be more powerful in certain areas, such as blue water navy, but geography is destiny.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 18 2025 3:10 utc | 67
That was true before the 2M39 but certainly not today. A single one can be launched from any Russian port and eliminate an entire carrier strike group anywhere on the planet. The days of any navy being a threat are over.

Posted by: Screwdriver | Jul 18 2025 20:59 utc | 130

get a load of this fucking piece of shit nazi lying like blackrock shoves cocaine up his ass!:

🇩🇪🤡German Chancellor Merz explained that “sanctions against Israel are different”:
I can tell you that we discussed this issue at length in the European Council in Brussels immediately after the NATO summit, almost throughout the entire dinner, about what options we have. And Germany is not the only EU member state that currently rejects the suspension or even termination of the Association Agreement with Israel. Unlike Russia, Israel remains a democracy. Unlike Russia, Israel is a country that has been attacked. And Israel is defending itself against these attacks. If they had not done so, the State of Israel would no longer exist today.
And this is the fundamental difference between Israel and Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine. And that is why the federal government is not prepared — and I personally am not prepared — to compare these two cases, so to speak, or even to treat them equally. These are fundamental differences, which we, of course, also take into account when assessing the situation.

they (he and his nazi buddys in brussels and britain) literally talk about destroying russia, ie making it no longer exist. but this is different somehow, right? hope he gets a nut up his ass.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jul 18 2025 23:35 utc | 132

Even tass goes along with the gaslighting (dreams for ukie wives, girlfriends, parents and children)
“A Ukrainian army officer has noted that by saying that demobilization will only be possible after a total victory on the battlefield, Vladimir Zelensky has sealed a terrible fate for hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers.”
https://tass.com/world/1991297
BULLSHIT! Only thing that matters is hiding 7 digit KIA at AFU.
Strictly speaking “sealed a terrible fate for hundreds of thousands” it singular, not plural, there are roughly a hundred thousand (50/50 between those volunteered 1 2022 and 2023 who might get demobilized ) still alive and fighting, BUT
Ukie ladies, sorry but if your beau went, gallantly, back in 2022 (and no return with significant parts missing), there,s a 33 to 1 chance he’s dead.
If your beau went, valiantly, back in 2023 (and no invalid at home)… 16 to 1 he’s no longer on, but under, the field of honor
If he was kidnapped in 2024, there’s still a 1 in 6 chance of saving him. 60.000 nice boys with most parts included.
Hurry up, stock is running out!

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 19 2025 0:09 utc | 134

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jul 18 2025 23:35 utc | 131
#######
These “elites” keep showing us who they are.
Will anyone believe them?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 19 2025 0:27 utc | 136

Posted by: Screwdriver | Jul 18 2025 20:59 utc | 129
That was true before the 2M39 but certainly not today. A single one can be launched from any Russian port and eliminate an entire carrier strike group anywhere on the planet. The days of any navy being a threat are over.
I take your point but would qualify it by changing your last sentence to- The days of any SURFACE navy being a threat are over.
Also, this depends on the Poseidon torpedoes actually performing as expected. I think we could assume that the RF would not have put these into service without being fairly sure of their performance.
Also, all naval strategic warfare is shifting (quickly) to submarine based platforms-just like Poseidon (2M39).

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Jul 19 2025 0:38 utc | 138

Russian eWar is boss tier

Russia intends to jam European satellites operating against it
Russia has informed international regulators that it considers civilian navigation and broadcasting satellites in Europe — which are also used to support Ukraine’s military operations — as legitimate targets and may jam their signals on that basis.
“The Russian Ministry of Digital Development and Communications has notified international regulators — the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the Radio Regulations Board — that European countries using navigation and broadcasting satellites for both civilian and military purposes, including to support Ukraine, have forfeited the right to protest if those satellite signals are jammed by Russia,” reports the industry outlet Space Intel Report.
In March, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, Finland, France, and the Netherlands filed a complaint with the ITU regarding Russia’s interference with satellite communications on the continent.

https://x.com/Cyberspec1/status/1946376942581895651

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 19 2025 1:20 utc | 140

🇷🇺 Massive Overnight Strike on Ukraine
Another combined missile and drone attack struck Ukraine last night, overwhelming local defenses and causing major fires in several regions.
Reported launches:
9 × Kh-101 cruise missiles
3 × Iskander-K cruise missiles
3 × Iskander-M ballistic missiles
1 × Grom-E1 hybrid missile
300+ Geran-2 drones
🎯 Primary target: Pavlograd (Dnepropetrovsk Oblast)
Hit by:
▫️ 3 × Kh-101s
▫️ 3 × Iskander-Ks
▫️ 3 × Iskander-Ms
▫️ 60+ Geran-2 drones
Strikes occurred in multiple waves, overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses.
Massive fires now visible across the city.
As of latest reports, ~20 Geran-2 drones are still en route.
This marks one of the heaviest attacks on Pavlograd in months.

https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1946408402776895817
I have it on great military authority that all of these weapons were designed by America, and the plans were stolen under the Obama Presidency, along with the Epstein List. 😂😂😂

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 19 2025 3:21 utc | 142

“… I go against the tide and believe Ukraine, in its entirety, should have remained an independent country. Could it have got over the maladministration and corruption it should have become the most prosperous of the post-Soviet states. As the Canadian diplomat, Patrick Armstrong, pointed out at the time it lost any chance of that in 2014. We employed it, greatly to its disadvantage, as an attack dog against Russia. It has now lost its chance of remaining an independent country in any form…”
Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 18 2025 13:20 utc | 99
I don’t agree, English Outsider. I don’t have the name at my fingertips, but I will find it — the Russian writer on military affairs that karlof1 quoted in several substacks had an early optimistic view of what the SMO would accomplish for Ukraine. I’ve been thinking to mention his thesis in support of the ‘slow’ progress of the Russian forces: they are not only moving against the current regime, they are shoring up support behind them as they go. Ukraine is rebuilding in the four oblasts even as the military presses forward.
When the current regime capitulates, then will come a coordinated effort to restore the country, just as has been happening in those oblasts. Ukraine will become an even stronger independent country than it was before. Now I’ll see if I can support my optimism by referencing the article and its author.

Posted by: juliania | Jul 19 2025 5:19 utc | 144

@juliania | Sat, 19 Jul 2025 05:19:00 GMT | 143

When the current regime capitulates, then will come a coordinated effort to restore the country, just as has been happening in those oblasts. Ukraine will become an even stronger independent country than it was before. Now I’ll see if I can support my optimism by referencing the article and its author.

Delusional thinking, considering we don’t know how much of Ukraine will be left. The four oblasts, at a minimum will be gone. Likely large swaths of Sumy and Kharkov as well.
Who will finance Ukraine’s reconstruction? Europe? The US? Ukraine will either be wholly dependent on foreign aid for decades, or will become a failed state, or both. Quote whatever experts you want, but look to history as a guide. Germany, 80 years after WWII – still dependent on the US for security.

Posted by: James M. | Jul 19 2025 5:32 utc | 146

Posted by: juliania | Jul 19 2025 5:26 utc | 144

As for the rest of Ukraine: the “anti-Russian forces could be pushed into the western regions under NATO protection, possibly splitting the country into a ‘Free Ukraine’ controlled by Poland, Hungary, and Romania, and

The emphasized notion breaks “realistic”.

Posted by: Laurence | Jul 19 2025 5:55 utc | 148

The Ukraine war is also showing the advantages and disadvantages of having private companies manufacture arms.
Will Schryver on the use of AGM-158 JASSM missiles against the Kerch strait bridge.
The Redheaded Stepsister Goes to the Ball

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 19 2025 6:56 utc | 150

Posted by: James M. | Jul 19 2025 7:28 utc | 150
Failed states have a tendency to reawaken, amongst neighbouring countries, suppressed, traumatic memories of lost territory, so it might not be just Russia taking her cut.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 19 2025 7:53 utc | 152

However, I personally don’t think any part of “independent” Ukraine will be overly friendly towards Russia, not for a long, long time. Pacified, probably, but not friendly.
Posted by: James M. | Jul 19 2025 7:28 utc | 150
Beg to differ. This isn’t the Ukrainian people’s war and they know it. They’ll embrace Russia with open arms and be hostile to those Banderites & their western supporters that caused their fathers & sons to be killed or maimed.
Look at how the locals are giving Russia targeting information on TCC’s. It’s fairly common for people not to evacuate when the RF is approaching because they consider them liberators.
I would expect a post-SMO, Russia-friendly Ukraine to attract a fair amount of it’s people back from the EU. The Banderites will OTOH be scattered to the wind as the people will expose them at every turn. Tons of built-up resentment over the past 11 years of mis-treatment at the hands of these nazis.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jul 19 2025 9:11 utc | 154

Posted by: James M. | Jul 19 2025 7:28 utc | 150
Lumping Hungary with Poland and Romania sounds odd. The Hungarian prime minister has good relations with Russia, based upon a common sense approaching

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 19 2025 10:26 utc | 156

Ukrainian Military Recruit Kills Two Instructors
https://www.rt.com/russia/621652-ukrainian-recruit-kills-instructors/
“A Ukrainian military recruit has fatally shot two instructors during a training exercise in the Chernigov region, police confirmed on Thursday, after details leaked about the case.
The authorities said the suspect opened fire with an automatic weapon on a group of military personnel the day before. He faces a potential life sentence for premeditated murder according to the statement.
The shooting took place at a training range and were initially reported by Artyom Dmitruk, a fugitive member of parliament and outspoken critic of Kiev’s mobilization policies. Dmitruk alleged that incidents like this are frequently covered up by military officials.
Earlier this month, Michael O’Flaherty, the Council of Europe’s commissioner for human-rights, raised concerns about ‘allegations of torture and death during military recruitment’ in Ukraine.
Videos purportedly showing aggressive conscription tactics have circulated widely for months and sparked domestic unrest…”
‘To the last Ukrainian’ as American senator Lindsey Graham has celebrated. Slaughtering the youth of Ukraine for profit by its US proxy regime in the interest of imperial malevolence towards Russia on behalf of a clearly failing geostrategic objective hopefully ends soon along with the evil empire that planned and still continues this awful enterprise.

Posted by: JohnGilberts | Jul 19 2025 11:39 utc | 158

Zelensky Government Shake Up Aims to End Istanbul Talks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mus6CHs9aCw
Duran’s Mercouris & Christoforou analyze and discuss.

Posted by: JohnGilberts | Jul 19 2025 12:04 utc | 160

Re: Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 18 2025 14:46 utc | 108

The role of politicians in the West are to raise hopes and ultimately deliver betrayal.
Fico, like Orban, LARPs as a hero but when confronted by a dragon, pisses down his leg like anyone else.

If Russia wants the likes of Fico-Slovakia and Orban-Hungary as allies, they need to stop pissing and moaning and get on with it.
It’s been almost 3.5 years now and still nowhere near creating a landbridge to Hungary or Slovakia – let alone even Transnistria!
Much attrition though – but at the same time leaving potential allies like Orban, Fico & Vucic high and dry waiting for Godot!!

Posted by: Julian | Jul 19 2025 13:11 utc | 162

Starting 19th with 1.195 casualties and details
https://tass.com/defense/1991569
Marat and DS will have to wait

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 19 2025 15:07 utc | 164

Then I found out that Hungary proudly assisted Israel in the pager attack on Hezbollah.
It reminded me how dangerous Judeo-Christians really are, even in Eastern Europe.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 18 2025 17:15 utc | 117
It’s not so many years since the ottomans reminded Hungarians how dangerous Muslims are, especially in Eastern Europe.

Posted by: Oldhand | Jul 19 2025 17:02 utc | 166

Posted by: Julian | Jul 19 2025 13:11 utc | 162
########
The Russians only have 2 allies.
Their army and their navy. Everyone knows that.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 19 2025 18:20 utc | 168

@ Don Firineach, §163:
No, the British resisted the Spanish attempt on West Falkland and narrowly averted an Anglo-Spanish war when Spain agreed in 1770 to full restoration of the British settlement of Port Egmont and recognition of West Falkland as British.
When the Argentine declared independence, Spain was still occupied by Napoleon, who was driven out – by the British!
In 1810, the Argentine did not extend south of the Rio Negro, so that all of Patagonia, as well as the Falklands, were terra nullius.

Posted by: John Marks | Jul 19 2025 20:06 utc | 170

Interviewer: “Why did you join this war (Donbass resistance)?”
Givi: “I never liked Nazis.”
https://x.com/aleksbrz11/status/1946657283263365506

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 19 2025 21:39 utc | 172

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 19 2025 18:21 utc | 169
“That’s the issue Christians have.
Did Jesus tell you to kill the innocent? If not, WTF are you doing?”
Seriously? Are you familiar with the phrase “Allahu Akbar”? It puts fear into the hearts of Christians, Jews, Hindus and Buddhists everywhere (and even some Muslims). How many thousands of Africans are victims of jihad every year? Living in a glass house as you do, you sure seem to enjoy throwing stones at others. How about you get your own religion cleaned up before you start attacking other faiths? Hypocrisy is never appealing.

Posted by: Paranaense | Jul 20 2025 0:51 utc | 174

@juliania | Sat, 19 Jul 2025 23:37:00 GMT | 173

Actually, no. You were quoting Dmitri Trenin.

No, I was quoting you, quoting Trenin, if you want to be precise. It’s well and good that Trenin has some “positive outcomes” for Ukraine, however naive or detached from reality they are. Using history as a guide, vanquished peoples seldom look very favorably on the victors after war; not for a long, long time. Not in the way Trenin envisions.
Case in point: 18 years now after the very brief Russo-Georgia war, would you call Georgia a reliable and good ally of Russia? It’s a borderline case, but a sizable portion of the population is still anti-Russian. I don’t see Ukraine-Russia relations being any warmer than that, any sooner than that, if ever. But as I said in my prior post I could be wrong. We won’t know for sure for at least a decade.
I think the most realistic option for Russia is a weakened, compliant and pacified Ukraine – one that might smolder with resentment, but powerless to do anything about it.
And no, I don’t think any EU country is going to rush in and divvy up the remainder of Ukraine. Sovereignty and territorial integrity are very important to states. Dissolving Ukraine starts a slippery slope for many European countries, which were mostly cobbled together from medieval princedoms.

Posted by: James M. | Jul 20 2025 9:08 utc | 176

Re Argentine nowadays.
Milei has given the Zionists “equal” rights in Argentine. This means that IDF soldiers can and do claim Argeninian pensions, similar to the locals. It is the latter who paid in for them of course. Zionists can buy land and are running a scam concerning the “buying and burning” of Patagonian forests around water sources. After which they cannot “legally” change hands for 20 years.
There is an UK “Lord” Watts, (if my memory reminds me correctly, this is already a several years-old enquiry/revelation) who runs a “Ski lodge” through which 10’000 Idf had already passed many years ago. Being flown in through an equally discrete airport on the other side of the frontier with Patagonia. One which is capable of taking Intarnational flights, but not declared as such.
Neighbours; Bush family in Patagonia, “Ranch” on the biggest fresh water reservoir (Nappe phreatique) on the planet.
This is my bet for Zelnsky’s “retirement” for a facial “lifting” and then a possible return to Miami Vice?

Posted by: Stonebird | Jul 20 2025 12:31 utc | 178

For Newbie, but any can comment.
My back of the envelope, quite literally, calculations about Russian strength in mid-summer ‘22
Limitations: oodles of them, not least the fact that true data during an ongoing conflict is impossible to find, so historical precedent, extrapolation and use of open-sources have been used. All figures are therefore approximations and in no way represent real deployments.
Methodology: Take the number from the initial invasion and use that to populate x number of divisions, as by this time of the conflict most BTG’s were being folded back into their parent divisional structures (brigades are populated from divisions so they have been amalgamated). The length of the active front is then divided by these divisions to give a LOC frontage per division. This figure is then subdivided down to the platoon level, so a frontage per individual can be calculated. Figures used for the various units are not book strengths but approximations and averages of open source material, eg, some Russian formations initially had only 60% of their manpower available, whilst some had official levels.
Length of the active front line: 1000km
Initial invasion force 125 BTG’s with an average strength of 650 = 81,250
Losses and reinforcements match so figure stays at the same range +/-5%
BTG’s folded into division structures with an average of 12K personnel, (figure based on the expectation that a division could create to 1-2 brigades with 3K per brigade
Number of divisions available = 81, 250/6.7 rounded up to 7
Frontage of each division 140km rounded down
Frontage per brigade 70km (operationally independent unit so full deployment, frontage of units below brigade have the frontage divided by two, to represent standard deployment, unless platoon where no 2/3 applied)
Frontage battalion 35km
Frontage company 17km
Frontage platoon 8.5 km
Frontage per man (22 man reduced strength platoon) 390m
Conclusions: a feasible figure given the continuing trend of expanding frontages for units, but any higher and it rapidly becomes operationally unsustainable (cf the Kharkov Front collapse in ‘22 because of a porous front) and the use of para-military police.
This figure is for combat units of the Russian Army and does not include PMC’s (Wagner) and the various militias.
If this methodology is applied to later on we get a figure of 265K on the active front (45km div frontage/1000km active front), which seems reasonable, given reinforcement v’s loss rate and the ability, with NK, help to contain the Kursk salient.
All figures can be adjusted +/- 5-10% and the conclusion still remains valid.
So, 50K too little, 80-90 doable but shoestring Op, explaining why the initial drive failed (tons of steel, very few boots) the inability to maintain offensive tempo beyond 2-3 axis, the failure to exploit initial capture of Kherson, the reinforcing of Kherson causing the collapse of the Kharkov front and the rapid calls for mobilisation after the operational defeat.
Sites that offer topographical mapping and filters for Ukraine
https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/map-wmv51/Ukraine/?center=50.87193%2C38.9759&zoom=10&popup=50.03664%2C45.08789
Topographic with adjustable LOS tool
https://www.scadacore.com/tools/rf-path/rf-line-of-sight/

Posted by: Milites | Jul 20 2025 12:51 utc | 180

@John Marks | Sun, 20 Jul 2025 12:25:00 GMT | 177
The problem isn’t whether they are interested in it, which is highly debatable, but possible. The main problem with de-soverieingtizing Ukraine is the precedent it would set, and the violation of protocol it would represent. I realize that international law is much scoffed at on this forum, but states do follow, or at least make an attempt to follow, certain practices and customs. One of those is annexing other independent and sovereign states.
Yes, it has happened – Iraq invading Kuwait, Germany and the USSR invading states in WWII, but the results are usually reversed. The Baltics were annexed by the Soviets during WWII and were held onto for 50 years, but once the USSR broke up they were quick to assert independence, and join NATO. You’d have to go back to the 19th century to find a complete annexation that has been sustained: Hawaii in 1898, or the German and Italian wars of unification.
I don’t think in the UN system that the annexation of a country the size of Ukraine is viable. Not without complete Ukrainian acquiescence, which would be difficult to obtain, to say the least. Parts of a country could declare independence and form a new state, or be absorbed by other states. That has happened, and that is the Russian plan with the four oblasts. But disappearing an entire previously sovereign state is too untenable to be successful.
Personally, I think it’s a fable promoted by Russian propagandists to make the SMO, and eventual Russian annexation of some former Ukrainian land more palpable. Although, it is a popular view here. Putin has been very careful about Ukraine keeping its sovereignty, and the remainder of its territory, so long as it surrenders soon and recognizes its new reality.

Posted by: James M. | Jul 20 2025 23:50 utc | 182