I don’t think that even a major ammonia leak would present more than a nuisance. No real effect would be gained.

Posted by: Catilina | Jul 17 2025 13:42 utc | 3

Two Arrested in Georgia for Attempted Sale of Uranium
The State Security Service of Georgia (SSSG) said on July 17 it arrested two persons – a Georgian citizen and a foreign national – in Batumi over the illegal sale and purchase of nuclear material, specifically radioactive uranium.
The arrests were made during a joint operation conducted by the SSSG’s Counterintelligence Department and the Special Operations Department.
“According to the agreement among the detainees, the illegal sale of uranium was planned for USD 3 million,” the SSSG stated, adding that it had “uncovered a transnational crime and prevented its potential development in various directions.”
An investigation has been launched under Article 230 of Georgia’s Criminal Code, which covers the illegal handling of nuclear material, equipment, radioactive waste, and substances. If convicted, the offense carries a sentence of five to 10 years in prison.
The SSSG said the seized uranium, based on its alpha and gamma radiation levels and source characteristics, could be used in explosive devices, terrorist attacks, or to inflict other severe, mass, and fatal consequences.

Posted by: guest | Jul 17 2025 14:27 utc | 5

“snake”: yes it is a war crime to do so and can be so even without any ammonia, it can be multiple war crimes depending on the details/context.
I don’t remember the exact wording of what I’m thinking of since it’s over thirty years since I last read it and there’s absolutely no chance of me remembering exactly where it was (besides it being in a small military book/guide among many others like it on other subjects in the tiny platoon office) or which specific convention or protocol or agreement it came from (I thought it was the Geneva conventions but looking for it that seems not to be the case).
Any direct search I tried got swamped by better known things such as the protection of civilians and the criminality of attacking so-and-so and so on and not on this more passive item of indirectly putting civilians and civilian infrastructure at risk.
It’s kind of funny how little it gets mentioned seeing as how prevalent it is by for example the “Ukrainians”. Examples such as situating anti-air missiles inside cities clearly constitutes multiple war-crimes in each instance.
Sadly all of this gives credence to the notion that all such international humanitarian law is kind of pie in the sky. Especially these days.
Yes of course if everybody truly followed every rule then war would be impossible… that’s no secret.
Maybe someone else has a better more direct answer/reference to the specific rule I’m talking about?

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jul 17 2025 14:56 utc | 7

Three Rational Calculations by Trump’s Men That They Can Win Their War Against Russia or Escape Voter Blame if They Lose It (& vid)
https://johnhelmer.net/three-rational-calculations-by-trumps-men-that-they-can-win-their-war-against-russia-or-escape-voter-blame-if-they-lose-it/
“…When Trump and Rutte accuse President Vladimir Putin of failing to negotiate seriously, the record reveals the opposite. Negotiating on the Ukraine war with Trump is proving to be impossible because Trump isn’t serious. That’s not his political decision; it’s his neuro-psychiatric handicap.
In the Russian decision-making now underway, there is an attempt to find the rational calculations in what Trump is meaning; that is to say, what Trump advisors, constituents, and officials are calculating when he himself is incapacitated.
The first of these, Russian sources believe, is that the Trump escalation is a pitch to prevent Trump’s domestic voter base, the MAGA enthusiasts in the battleground states which won the presidency for Trump last November, from deserting him.
The second calculation is that Russia is militarily and economically vulnerable to a combination of escalation of attacks inside Russia and sanctions on the oil trade outside. This is the strategy of the ‘bigger bear’, announced on CNN this week by former Trump and Biden Administration warfighter, Brett McGurk…”

Posted by: JohnGilberts | Jul 17 2025 16:29 utc | 9

Posted by: snake | Jul 17 2025 13:14 utc | 2
Ammonia toxicity

The toxicity of ammonia solutions does not usually cause problems for humans and other mammals, as a specific mechanism exists to prevent its build-up in the bloodstream. Ammonia is converted to carbamoyl phosphate by the enzyme carbamoyl phosphate synthetase, and then enters the urea cycle to be either incorporated into amino acids or excreted in the urine.[134] Fish and amphibians lack this mechanism, as they can usually eliminate ammonia from their bodies by direct excretion. Ammonia even at dilute concentrations is highly toxic to aquatic animals, and for this reason it is classified as “dangerous for the environment”. Atmospheric ammonia plays a key role in the formation of fine particulate matter.[135]

I would worry more about doing myself an injury as I cough myself inside out after a good lungful.
Thank you for your concern on this matter.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Jul 17 2025 17:13 utc | 11

If it comes to a all-out conflict with Russia Nato will attack Kaliningrad first – Nato has already planned for it.
“Christopher Donahoe, commander of the US Army in Europe and Africa and commander of NATO land forces, claims that the alliance has planned to quickly suppress the defensive potential of Russian forces in the Kaliningrad region, Defense News quotes him as saying:
“If you look at the Kaliningrad region… (it is) surrounded on all sides by NATO countries. There is absolutely no reason why we cannot suppress the A2AD zone (area of maneuver and access denial) from the country to deter Russia… faster than we ever could. We have already planned for it and developed (the necessary potential).”
Experts believe that such statements are not a strategy, but an attempt at intimidation against the background of growing uncertainty in the alliance itself. Words about the complete destruction of one of the Russian regions look provocative and thoughtless. Kaliningrad is a key part of Russia’s defense, and any attempts to put pressure on it will not go unanswered.”

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jul 17 2025 17:48 utc | 13

Vid from Patrick Lancaster: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwfsYOjL8HQ
He covers the local development of a UAZ chassis-mounted 4-tube rocket launcher and its field test firings in the first part of the video, but the second part was much more interesting, as Patrick interviews the assistant battalion commander; it’s powerful, and all those trolls and NAFOs who think Russia is about to collapse or the government overthrown should watch and absorb this interview.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 17 2025 18:10 utc | 15

Ammonia can be dangerous enough on its own:

“Breathing in low levels of ammonia may cause irritation to the eyes, nose and throat. High levels of ammonia may cause burns and swelling in the airways, lung damage and can be fatal. Ingestion of ammonia solutions can cause pain and burns throughout the digestive tract. In severe cases the respiratory system, stomach, and heart may be damaged, and death may follow.
Strong ammonia solutions may cause serious burns if splashed on the skin. At high concentrations, gases and fumes of ammonia can also cause corrosive damage to the skin. Splashes in the eye may cause damage which may be irreversible in some cases and can lead to loss of sight. The health effects of ammonia are usually immediate and long-term effects would not be expected after exposure to small amounts.”

Source:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ammonia-properties-incident-management-and-toxicology/ammonia-general-information
Large tanks of ammonia carry some risk, even tanker trucks.
Only a few years ago:

“Five people killed after a multi-vehicle crash in Illinois died from exposure to a toxic chemical that spilled from an overturned semi-truck, the Effingham County Coroner’s Office said Tuesday.
A preliminary investigation shows the fatalities were the result of the “toxic chemical anhydrous ammonia exposure,” the coroner office told CNN via email. “No official cause of death will be released until the final autopsy report is completed.”
The victims were identified as Kenneth Bryan, 34, and his two children – Rosie, 7, and Walker, 10 – along with Danny J. Smith, 67, and Vasile Cricovan, 31, according to the coroner’s office.
The accident appears to have started when another vehicle tried to pass the semi-truck on Friday evening, the National Transportation Safety Board said Sunday.
The truck was carrying about 7,500 gallons of anhydrous ammonia at the time, according to the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency. The agency said early estimates indicate more than half – about 4,000 gallons – was released.”

Source:
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/03/us/truck-crash-illinois-anhydrous-ammonia-deaths
Very nasty :C

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jul 17 2025 18:11 utc | 17

@ Republicofscotland | Jul 17 2025 17:48 utc | 13
More warmongering fantasies. All they ever want is a chance to bomb something. Whether it achieves anything is tertiary. It’s not Kaliningrad NATO has to worry about.

Posted by: boneless | Jul 17 2025 18:23 utc | 19

Ammonia is nasty, but I wouldn’t classify it a major hazard. It is not a systemically poisonous gas, and can be dealt with fairly easily (it is very water soluble and can be neutralised easily). It is also relatively light so disperses very quickly. I’d rate it below SO2 or Cl2 or NO2 (none of which are poisonous) as a major hazard if it got out in any quantity. There is a reason why it wasn’t used in WW1….

Posted by: Cornelius Pipe | Jul 17 2025 19:27 utc | 21

@Jo 22
It’s grift/slush fund.
I don’t remember these vile officials asking us ..
JB

Posted by: Judge Barbier | Jul 17 2025 19:47 utc | 23

Posted by: JohnGilberts | Jul 17 2025 16:29 utc | 9
The Helmer post before that one also had a Trump profiling, said to be from sources:
“… according to a source in a position to know, is that Trump’s mental disability is not that he is lying – he doesn’t aim to deceive. Rather, he is clinically incapable of understanding the logic, the evidence, the weight of options, and the sequence and consequence of actions. He cannot think; ergo, he cannot negotiate in good or even bad faith. He is, according to this Russian neurological diagnosis, a mentally incapacitated brain with only one reflex – the use of force to compel capitulation or effect destruction. ”

Posted by: JustSomeOldGuy | Jul 17 2025 20:38 utc | 25

🇷🇺 Statement by Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova:
▪️Moscow considers itself entitled to use weapons against military facilities of countries that allow Kyiv to strike deep into Russia with its weapons.

https://t.me/geromanat/54706

Ukraine will soon receive long-range weapons systems produced in cooperation between Ukrainian and German defense companies, Merz said.

https://t.me/ukr_leaks_eng/23037

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 17 2025 21:00 utc | 27

Ammonia is much more useful in making ammonium nitrate and then explosives. Splashing it around out in the open won’t do much. The volumes needed to be more than just an annoyance within a kilometer of the leak would be enormous.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 17 2025 21:17 utc | 29

Have the Americans ever wanted an intellectual as President, at least in recent times?
Posted by: Waldorf | Jul 17 2025 20:43 utc | 26
Good question! Can you miss what you don’t know?
The ‘Americans’ had intellectual leaders until the Europeans arrived.
A famous quote from Sitting Bull is: ‘If we must die, we will die in defence of our rights.’
The Native people elected a leader in times of war and were without rule in times of peace.
How many Christians are looking forward to the Last Judgement? And how many of them are intellectual?

Posted by: BlindSpot | Jul 17 2025 21:23 utc | 31

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jul 17 2025 14:56 utc | 7
To quote a former associate from my mis-spent youth: “Its only a crime if you get caught AND convicted, and the whole purpose of a law is to be broken or it has no meaning.”
Who is going to catch them? And who is going to convict them? War crimes are a moot discussion at best, especially during a war.

Posted by: nobody | Jul 17 2025 22:03 utc | 33

Just notice this over at sonar21.. interesting the whole article .. here is the title and lead in.
Russia Goes on the Offensive Against US Investors in an Odessa Port
https://sonar21.com/russia-goes-on-the-offensive-against-us-investors-in-an-odessa-port/
On July 14, Volodymyr Zelensky handed over to United States companies, the largest terminal of the Odessa port, Olimpex, following an international legal dispute. The new owners are the American investment companies, Argentem Creek Partners and Innovatus Capital Partners.
do we know who is the CEOs of these entities?

Posted by: snake | Jul 17 2025 22:33 utc | 35

Have the Americans ever wanted an intellectual as President, at least in recent times?
Posted by: Waldorf | Jul 17 2025 20:43 utc | 26

Too high of a intellect is a liability in that type of job. There is a tendency in intellectuals to overthink things and constantly require more information.
The key to the job is hiring the right trusted people, delegating responsibility and follow up/through.
After the recent experience with an Autopen President, the question is when will they be ready for the first AI President?

Posted by: Fool Me Twice | Jul 17 2025 22:58 utc | 37

George @36: ”I don’t think the US is even significant anymore in Russia’s SMO in Ukraine. ”
That is certainly Trump’s intention, but he has to maintain the rhetorical hand waving to keep the TDS victims in the Establishment off balance or they might do something unfortunate and deeply regrettable. Just look at how they pissed and moaned about the strike on Iran just being theater instead of STFU and be thankful for the fact that we are not in another war. Morons would seriously be OK with thermonuclear Armageddon if it means they get to ”own the MAGA chuds!” Their brain damage really is that bad.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 17 2025 23:13 utc | 39

Assuming the Ukrainian army counts 750,000 men. The whole of non-occupied Ukraine is about 450,000 km2.
At 8.9km2 per day, it would take Russia 138 year to occupy all of Ukraine. At 1185 dead Ukrainian soldiers per day, it would take a year and 9 months to eradicate the Ukrainian army.
The Ukrainian army is running out of men 80 times faster than Ukraine is running out of territory.
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 17 2025 21:20 utc | 30
Much assumptions, so Wow!
lately km2 averages are much higher, and kremlin wouldn’t want all of ukraine. Still I’d give 6 months to take all of 4 oblasts east of dnipro (+sumy&karkiv buffers), Putin mentioned 60 days (that I personally find short for even donetsk)
BUT as a bare minimum I’d say AFU needs no less than 120.000 constantly at an even reduced LOC (150-180 for current)
Can’t make divide by without knowing replenishment rate.
But can’t assume AFU has 750,000 men. Personally I’d consider less than half…
And RF mil doesn’t even count killed in vehicles, let alone in the back.
Seriously doubt AFU can do september without nato boots on the ground.
And it also explains putin’s 60 days.
Seems like marat took the day off today, so … good night

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 17 2025 23:35 utc | 41

persiflo @40:
Trump’s position is somewhat atypical in that he wasn’t the Establishment’s intended victor. As a consequence the mass media is absolutely adversarial and will try to sabotage and undermine everything he says. Trump thus has to calibrate his words to drive a reaction by the mass media, and the reaction to that reaction being his desired outcome. Kinda like a double bank shot in billiards every time he speaks. Doesn’t always work out, but surprisingly he nails it pretty frequently.
In any case, that is why Trump’s commentary seems erratic. It is just whatever is necessary to drive the knee-jerk response he needs from the mass media. That’s why the wise person focuses on the results, while the presstitutes (who are the opposite of wise) should gobble his words up.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 17 2025 23:39 utc | 43

@snake 35
>do we know who is the CEOs of these entities?

Argentem Creek Partners is an emerging markets specialist investment firm committed to delivering value for investors and partners. The firm seeks to deliver uncorrelated emerging market alpha by investing in special situations and structured capital solutions.
Argentem Creek was founded in 2015 by Daniel Chapman and his former team from Cargill, Inc. subsidiary, Black River Asset Management. We are 100% employee-owned.

And:

David Schiff
Founding Partner
Mr. Schiff has an over twenty-five year career developing and investing in private equity, credit and real estate markets while focused on creating value for investors in special situations, emergent asset classes, private credit and asset-based investments. He has a vast depth of knowledge, expertise and experience within the investment segment and is known for his highly creative, disciplined and risk-sensitive approach to investing. Since 2016, Mr. Schiff is a founding partner of Innovatus Capital Partners LLC, serves as CEO and is Chairman of the Investment Committee

https://www.innovatuscp.com/team
I’ll do some more digging – I have access to WestLaw and can search for any lawsuits involving Schiff, Innovatus, or Argentem Creek.
And I can’t resist a dig – looks like Argentum is UP SCHITT’S CREEK with regard to the grain terminal!

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 17 2025 23:44 utc | 45

@Sunny Runny Burger | Thu, 17 Jul 2025 14:56:00 GMT | 7

I don’t remember the exact wording of what I’m thinking of since it’s over thirty years since I last read it and there’s absolutely no chance of me remembering exactly where it was (besides it being in a small military book/guide among many others like it on other subjects in the tiny platoon office) or which specific convention or protocol or agreement it came from (I thought it was the Geneva conventions but looking for it that seems not to be the case).

It would be the Hague Conventions of 1899 and 1907. The Geneva Protocol was added in 1925, after the copious use of mustard gas in WWI. But that is the extent of “prohibiting chemical warfare” in formal international law.
It became a part of customary international law, state practice, that chemical and biological weapons would not be used in war.
Iraq and Iran, South Africa a little bit, and Israel did not follow these customs. After the Iran-Iraq war and the Gulf war, the convention on outright banning chemical weapons was adopted. But snake’s scenario, I don’t believe, is covered under the previous conventions.

Posted by: James M. | Jul 17 2025 23:49 utc | 47

Assuming the Ukrainian army counts 750,000 men. The whole of non-occupied Ukraine is about 450,000 km2.
At 8.9km2 per day, it would take Russia 138 year to occupy all of Ukraine. At 1185 dead Ukrainian soldiers per day, it would take a year and 9 months to eradicate the Ukrainian army.
The Ukrainian army is running out of men 80 times faster than Ukraine is running out of territory.
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 17 2025 21:20 utc | 30
————-
A lot the “map porn” is nonsense, there are plenty of areas both armies move the without defined control plus they undercount RF gains.
Beyond that the advances will speed up as the Ukrainian military slowly withers away.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Jul 18 2025 0:14 utc | 49

persiflo | Jul 17 2025 23:13 utc | 38–
Yes, Hero of Russia most certainly.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 18 2025 0:20 utc | 51

@Sunny Runny Burger | Jul 17 2025 14:56 utc | 7
The text you read probably mentioned the 1993 Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction (CWC).
https://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention
This international convention had been preceded by the Geneva Protocol of 17 June 1925 (Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use in War of Asphyxiating, Poisonous or other Gases, and of Bacteriological Methods of Warfare).

Posted by: Leuk | Jul 18 2025 0:39 utc | 53

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 18 2025 0:20 utc | 50
It sounds like the book by Friedrich Dürrenmatt, The Assignment.

Posted by: lex talionis | Jul 18 2025 1:12 utc | 55

Posted by: malenkov | Jul 17 2025 22:09 utc | 34
Supporter: “Governor, you have the support of every thinking person.”
Adlai Stevenson: “I’m afraid that won’t do, Madam; I need a majority.”
Stevenson went on to lose to Eisenhower.”
Yes, American voters just love being treated with condescending, snide remarks.

Posted by: Paranaense | Jul 18 2025 1:41 utc | 57

Just on general principles, I suspect the reason Trump is not happy with Putin is that the latter wouldn’t assure the former that his buddies could have the rare earth minerals that Zelensky had promised them. Bummer!

Posted by: ThisOldMan | Jul 18 2025 1:54 utc | 59

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 18 2025 0:22 utc | 52
No Mel. He comes from a city Dnipro Oblast. Russia will need to secure Donetsk first, but perhaps in 2026.

Posted by: watcher | Jul 18 2025 1:59 utc | 61

No Mel. He comes from a city Dnipro Oblast. Russia will need to secure Donetsk first, but perhaps in 2026.
Posted by: watcher | Jul 18 2025 1:59 utc | 61
His hometown is Krivoy Rog. It is in the Dniepropetrosk Oblast. Writing this last name like you did means you are supporting the ukronazis.

Posted by: Naive | Jul 18 2025 2:26 utc | 63

Posted by: Naive | Jul 18 2025 2:20 utc | 62
Oh for FFS. Surely you can grasp that when i said it was a “gut feel” i was OBVIOUSLY agreeing with you that it was not based on any data.
As for the stuff on Donetsk etc that is based ion current mappers an assessments. i was replying to Newbie who showed in a comment Ii missed that he/she was equally on top of the situation.
I stick to my suspicion that Russia will go after Kharkov. it is just so close to the border and was clearly in their sights in 2022.
As for nit picking about whether it is a war or an SMO I find that frankly just silly. Once the missiles started hitting infrastructure seriously it really makes no difference if you call it a war or an SMO. It is all bombs away.
It was certainly an SMO at the start, but I rather feel that that figleaf fell away about the time Bakhmut fell and the “counter offensive” started (and failed). You could almost call most of the activity in Donetsk etc as a Russian Civil war in which one side is backed by foreign powers. However it is only a name, and it does not matter much.

Posted by: watcher | Jul 18 2025 3:05 utc | 65

Posted by: Naive | Jul 18 2025 2:44 utc | 64
Stooges like McGurk lack the compos mentis to understand geography. The US might be more powerful in certain areas, such as blue water navy, but geography is destiny. Russia is too far away, too big, and too protected by China in the East, Iran, and Afghanistan in the south, and buffer states like Belarus and now Ukraine.
The best the shitbirds can do is try to destabilize her with proxies in Eastern Europe, which certainly seems to be the plan. There is no hope of invading by land, and air power does not win wars.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 18 2025 3:10 utc | 67

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 18 2025 3:10 utc | 67
##########
The delusion of superiority is how the Axis will continue to thwart and evade them.
As I understand it, if one is in Washington, one goes along with the consensus, regardless of what it is.
Original thinkers don’t get far.
And so, there is no one to tell the Emperor that he is parading around naked as a jaybird.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 18 2025 3:29 utc | 69

Posted by: watcher | Jul 18 2025 1:55 utc | 60
Blablabla… You know nothing about the plans of the Russian Army. Nothing. Gut feeling, and you put the result here? Result of gut: shit. And no, it is still not a war, it is a Special Military Operation.
Hopefully you will never see what is a war. Nowadays.
Posted by: Naive | Jul 18 2025 2:20 utc | 62
As for the stuff on Donetsk etc that is based ion current mappers an assessments. i was replying to Newbie who showed in a comment Ii missed that he/she was equally on top of the situation.
I stick to my suspicion that Russia will go after Kharkov. it is just so close to the border and was clearly in their sights in 2022.
Posted by: watcher | Jul 18 2025 3:05 utc | 65
Yes, just speculation.
I generally agree with Kharkov (what I call the 37E , 36E if ukraie does’t behave) but ONLY after Kramatorsk and Slovianske arte taken.
Think you missed the part where by winter AFU will have no meat to hold te line… even at the dniper
@naive, just speculation. Earlier I mentioned must know more to mention 60 days, maybe AFU numbers are even lower than i think

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 18 2025 4:02 utc | 71

Posted by: Naive | Jul 18 2025 2:26 utc | 63
Not at all. Just lazy. I quite deliberately did not name his city because I know bloody well it is impossible to spell (for me).
The idea that I even for a single moment support the Ukronazis is totally absurd. Truly ruly you narrow minded git.
I am thinking you are a deliberate troll trying to sow dissension. Are you in fact our old friend anonymous, or William or Roger or Julian?

Posted by: watcher | Jul 18 2025 4:57 utc | 73

Mark Milley https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Milley

Senate Judiciary Committee chair Dick Durbin (D-Illinois) said that he had “no concerns that Milley might have exceeded his authority” and that Democratic lawmakers “were circumspect in our language but many of us made it clear that we were counting on him to avoid the disaster which we knew could happen at any moment”.[113] Biden later said he had “great confidence” in Milley.[140] Senator Angus King said that Milley had “rendered the country a significant service”, and U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services chair Jack Reed told reporters that “de-escalating international tensions was part of Milley’s job”.

Doesn’t even mention Soleimani

Posted by: Laurence | Jul 18 2025 5:31 utc | 75

Ukraine’s Jewish men face forced conscription and death.
Wings of Faith helps rescue them
February 2025
https://vinnews.com/2025/02/24/ukraines-jewish-men-face-forced-conscription-and-death-wings-of-faith-helps-rescue-them/
>… Hundreds of Israelis with Ukrainian citizenship are currently trapped in the Ukraine, having gone into hiding to escape the draft.
>… they have assisted in evacuating over 5,000 Jews from Ukraine , providing them with aid and vital provisions both in Rumania and Moldova and for those arriving in Israel with no knowledge of the language or Israeli environment.
>…~ Alexei, 31, was hiding from conscription when local police revealed his location. Armed men broke into his apartment at night and took him to a recruitment facility. Wings of Faith is now working through legal channels to prevent his deployment to the front.
“It’s important to understand that these aren’t historical memories we can read about and move on,” Halfon emphasizes. “This is happening right now, at this very moment. Each passing day determines the fate of more Jews struggling to survive in the chaos of war.”

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 18 2025 5:58 utc | 77

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 17 2025 21:20 utc | 30
Interesting calculation. It means that low- and middle-class ukrop males composing ukrop armed forces are 80 times more concentrated along the frontline and nearby western areas wrt the rest of the country.
It also highlights Russian strategy: once nearly the whole of low- and middle-class ukrop males are blown/burned/shot/maimed/captured near the frontlines, the whole country can be annexed quickly.
Then ukrop children can be re-programmed and ukrop females can be inseminated to produce lots of newly-added Russian offspring.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Jul 18 2025 6:38 utc | 79

A new term:
Trumpsplainin’
As in, when one of his supporters goes into contortions to justify his evil behavior.
Trump calls Epstein a hoax, and his supporters say it’s 5D chess, or to protect EU old money, or the Democrats were always behind it when Bill Clinton was the biggest fish caught in the net prior to Trump … yeah, they’re Trump-splainin’

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jul 18 2025 8:29 utc | 81

Posted by: Norwegian | Jul 18 2025 7:01 utc | 80
Kaliningrad is thriving with tourists, families with children, though locals resent it a bit.
Kaliningrad is well defended, including the most advanced AD systems covering the whole of the Baltic airspace and most likely nukes as well (they have Iskanders).
As a matter of fact, Kaliningrad is not a weakness, but a strength of Russian forward deployment against NATO. That’s why them Russkies decided to keep it (also for having a port that doesn’t freeze in winter) after crushing the Wehrmacht in 45.
That general is all mouth and no cojones. Not a criminal, just a loudmouth. He reminds me of a short guy that tried to fight me after I kicked his car for not respecting a pedestrian cross. He threw punches with his short arms while I bounced around him laughing, slipping and rolling.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Jul 18 2025 9:16 utc | 83

Do intellectuals make good leaders? Leaders need to be decisive, are intellectuals decisive or do they think the problems too much?
Posted by: James M. | Jul 17 2025 23:41 utc | 44

President Wilson was an intellectual and he was generally decisive … but he wasn’t a good leader.

Posted by: Tel | Jul 18 2025 11:03 utc | 85

I sort of agree, but I think they may hand over large sections of the west to Poland. Russia probably does not want to have to handle all those rabid NAZIs in Galicia.
Posted by: watcher | Jul 18 2025 10:01 utc | 84

judging by the recent musings from duda and other polish officials on bandera, the oun etc, maybe the poles are not to fond of that part of ukraine be given to them.
saw pictures of one of the border crossings with signs of “no oun!” and pictures of bandera et all crossed out facing the ukrainian side. installed by officials of the polish government, not some civilian activists that nobody listens to.
on the flipside, you have polish officials also downplaying all of that because, apparently, the ukrainian officials dont know anything about all those atrocities, because they were never told in “sowjet schools”. yes, they actually said that. the polish jokes write themself with stuff like that.
the polish youth probably knows even less of all the atrocities commited by the galician and invano frankivsk nationals of ukraine, judging with how the european schoolsystem loves ignoring all those things, because of “friends and allies” or something.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jul 18 2025 11:12 utc | 87

Ukrainians have lost faith in Zelensky

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ukrainians-have-lost-faith-in-zelensky/
Some snips:

‘If the war continues soon there will be no Ukraine left to fight for,’ one former senior official in Zelensky’s administration tells me. They now believe their former boss is ‘prolonging the war to hold on to power’. Even once-staunch pro-Zelensky cheerleaders such as Mariia Berlinska, head of the Aerial Reconnaissance Support Centre, a prominent Ukrainian volunteer movement, express despair. ‘We are hanging over the abyss,’ Berlinska said recently. ‘Ukraine is an expendable pawn in an American game… Trump, Putin, Xi [will] spend us like small change if they need to.’

~~~

The recent spate of arrests and searches against Zelensky loyalists suggest serious political infighting at the heart of the Kyiv government – and also a reckless readiness to take down prominent critics both inside and outside the state, regardless of how it looks to the outside world. Perhaps the most shocking of all the recent arrests is that of Vitaliy Shabunin, one of Ukraine’s most prominent anti-corruption activists, who has been charged with evading military service and fraud. Shabunin, the chair of the Anti-Corruption Action Centre executive board and a leading watchdog of military corruption, attacked the government soon after this arrest.

~~~

Meanwhile, resentment, resistance and anger are rising at aggressive measures taken by the authorities to press-gang military-age men into the army – a process known as ‘busification’. Unlike the Russian army, which is made up of contract soldiers, Ukraine has instituted full mobilisation of men over 26 not engaged in vital civilian work.
Ukraine’s social media is filled with daily videos of men being bundled into vans by recruitment officers, sometimes at gunpoint. Yet many of those forcibly recruited seem to have little desire to fight. In the first six months of this year, Ukraine’s Prosecutor’s Office reported that it had opened 107,672 new criminal cases for desertion. Since 2022 some 230,804 such criminal cases have been instigated, suggesting that more soldiers have deserted the Ukrainian army than there are fighting men in today’s British, French and German armies combined.
Those who remain at the front are exhausted. Mobilised Ukrainian soldiers serve until the end of hostilities, meaning that some have been fighting continuously for three-and-a-half years. A draft law releasing military personnel from service after 36 months was squashed by the government last year for fear that the retiring personnel could not be replaced. No men aged 18 to 60 have been allowed to leave the country since February 2022 without special permission.

I’m increasingly getting the impression that there are serious divisions within the Western elites about whether or not to pull the rug from under the Kiev junta; this Spectator piece adds to that impression.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 18 2025 11:59 utc | 89

ZH has a posting up with the title
NATO Top Commander: Patriots Must Move From European Allies To Kyiv ‘As Quickly As Possible’
What I got out of the posting is that Germany has agreed to send two more Patriot batteries to Ukraine…..how long before they are destroyed?….before they get installed?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 18 2025 12:21 utc | 91

I’m increasingly getting the impression that there are serious divisions within the Western elites about whether or not to pull the rug from under the Kiev junta; this Spectator piece adds to that impression.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 18 2025 11:59 utc | 89
As statistically 90% AFU meat is dead or maimed @ 2 years (and only 20% remain @ 1.5)
Even if the “brave azov” etc have half that rate, very few remain from the start, maybe 15%.
Anyone remembers AFU recruitment this last year and a half? two thirds of that number is a nice estimate of what AFU has left + maybe 5% of all previous million men armies
no fingers, no triggers, no triggers, no bam bam

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 18 2025 12:37 utc | 93

Hungary has officially lodged a protest with Kyiv over the incident in Transcarpathia, where unknown individuals set fire to a church belonging to a Hungarian parish and left the inscription “Hungarians to the knives” on its walls.
It is more literally translated “Magyars to the knives” (мадяpib, not угорска), important difference in today’s world of conflating nationality and ethnicity.

Posted by: Call it what u will | Jul 18 2025 12:40 utc | 95

Posted by: watcher | Jul 18 2025 4:57 utc | 73
Fallacies, of course. If there is a troll, it is you. Lazy? Never read a so ludicrous “excuse”. By using the ukronazi name, you are writing that Dniepropetrovsk is not a Russian city and oblast. Also you are not “lazy” to make “predictions” when you don’t know what will happen tomorrow.

Posted by: Naive | Jul 18 2025 12:55 utc | 97

Andrei Martyanov puts up a picture of Major General Christian Freuding, Commanding officer of the planning and leadership staff of the Federal Ministry of Defence, and comes to no very flattering judgement as to his abilities in the military line.
We in the West do ourselves no favours when we put such men at the head of our defence establishments. They’re propagandists, not real Generals. The Americans employ too many such too, in the top military positions. We do in England. And as Colonel Lang was never tired of pointing out, our various Intelligence establishments are cluttered up with losers too. Men who are more anxious to go with the flow set by the politicians, rather than supplying the politicians with the hard information they ought to be getting.
That’s an aspect of the Ukrainian war we ignore but shouldn’t. How our way of fighting it degrades our defence and Intelligence establishments. Submitted a comment on that that might also be relevant here.
In this dismal confrontation between the West and Russia we get too hung up on the question of which one of us is in the right.
My own view on that, for what it’s worth, is that the Russians are. They had no choice but to pre-empt the Kiev forces massed on the LoC in February 2022. That seemed obvious to me back then and is obvious now. I stated that view last under an hard-hitting article by Owen Schalk on Canadian Dimension so don’t repeat it here.
https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/what-is-brics-and-where-is-it-going
But there’s more to conflict than the question of who is in the right. My view, we were very much in the right in the Falklands War but I’d have been most uneasy had we merely sent out a couple of frigates and expected that to do the job. There has to be a reasonable expectation of winning if war is to be engaged in.
This war offered no such reasonable expectation. Never did. The West simply does not have the military strength to defeat the Russians in their own back yard. If it ever did have the military strength it’d go nuclear. That was obvious in February 2022 and before. The famous Rand study spelt it out well before 2022. “But any increase in U.S. military arms and advice to Ukraine would need to be carefully calibrated to increase the costs to Russia of sustaining its existing commitment without provoking a much wider conflict in which Russia, by reason of proximity, would have significant advantages.”
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html
That view later confirmed by an unimpeachable military authority, General Lord Richards, who early on expressed the gravest doubts as to whether we’d be able to provide our proxies with sufficient muscle.
Worse yet, and either the General didn’t pick this up or he did but thought it better not to labour the point, the Russians had up-ended us in the first few days of the SMO. They conducted a brilliant missile and ground operation, Blitzkreig style, that demolished the Ukrainian army as a coherent fighting force and removed for good the possibility of a Kiev incursion into the Donbass.
We had expected the Russians to move on from there and get themselves bogged down in an intractable guerrilla war. The arms and training we’d supplied the Ukrainians were suited for that type of war though not for combined operations war. “This’ll be Russia’s Afghanistan” were the words on everyone’s lips.
The Russians again wrong-footed us. Instead of chasing all over Ukraine hunting out proxies and their equipment they sat back and allowed the proxies and their equipment come to them to be destroyed. This war was clearly an attrition war and that well before the term was bandied about in Western military circles. Defensive attrition or, where it was needed to bring the enemy to combat, aggressive attrition, was the pattern the Russians settled into almost from the beginning and it is still the pattern now.
Not being military I was mystified by the Russians in those early days. What were they about? Why weren’t they steamrolling on after that explosive early start? I referred to the Imperial War Museum material on Verdun and there it was. Falkenhayn had intended to use his superior artillery to attrite the French whilst minimising his own casualties. Didn’t work for him. But what the Russians were doing fitted into that “Falkenhayn Scenario” – I recollect boring everyone about it on English blogs in the early days – and this time round it worked for them. No steamroller. Instead, what a man on “b’s” site called “the woodchipper”. And we’ve been feeding our proxies and our equipment into that woodchipper ever since.
To take but one example, the so-called “Kharkov offensive” that our journalists and analysts celebrated at the time – no such thing. Walking troops into an area the enemy had already evacuated civilians and military forces from and had pre-registered its artillery on is not an offensive. It’s feeding the proxies into the woodchipper. And throughout this war we fed them in ruthlessly. Often against the wishes of the Ukrainian General staff itself.
It’s now clear we micromanaged this war. It was run from Wiesbaden and the Pentagon, not from Kiev. The use we put the proxies to was, to use “b’s” term on Moon of Alabama, a crime. The way we misled them a disgrace. From Istanbul on we promised Zelensky the earth. “As long as it takes”. Standing ovations in the Western capitals. Zelensky the new Churchill and the proxies fighting, not just for themselves, but for the West as a whole.
From that to “We are not Amazon” at Vilnius. And from the time of Vilnius, I suspect before, our proxies coming to the realisation that we had betrayed them. To the tune now of a million and more dead and the loss of their country. And having used them to wear down the Russians for “cents on the dollar” we walked away and left them in the lurch.
It was that dishonourable betrayal of our proxies that Colonel Lang foresaw. Just this once, he was saying to himself, we’re not going to leave our proxies high and dry. He’d seen too much of that before. Had he lived he would have been dismayed we did just that. I believe General Lord Richards, also no fool in military matters, foresaw that betrayal too.
Larry Johnson, looking at the big picture from way back, sums it up. I’ve quoted him before. His judgement bears repetition.
“Let me repeat: The West betrayed Ukraine when it obstructed its democratic transition and independence, interfered in its internal affairs, pitted Ukrainians against Russians, incited Slavs against Slavs, then initiated an unconstitutional coup, lied about implementing the Minsk agreements, and ultimately provoked a bloodbath in the region.“
I go against the tide and believe Ukraine, in its entirety, should have remained an independent country. Could it have got over the maladministration and corruption it should have become the most prosperous of the post-Soviet states. As the Canadian diplomat, Patrick Armstrong, pointed out at the time it lost any chance of that in 2014. We employed it, greatly to its disadvantage, as an attack dog against Russia. It has now lost its chance of remaining an independent country in any form.
If the European politicians can manage it we’re now heading into Cold War II. As we do so I hope we leave no more betrayed proxies dotted around the perimeter of the Russian Federation. In the wrong, as I believe, or in the right, as most in the West believe, this is not only a cynical and destructive way to use our proxies. As is becoming increasingly evident, we rot out our own military and Intelligence establishments when we use those establishments in such ventures.

Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 18 2025 13:20 utc | 99