Marat Khairullin update for today: https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/brief-frontline-report-july-15th
Looking at the first map there seems to be the “Mother Of All Cauldrons” gradually building around Konstantinovka, with several sub-cauldrons shown as developing around individual Ukrainian positions.
Demilitarisation continues, regardless of White House bloviating.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 15 2025 19:38 utc | 203

I’m sorry but I was sayimg this before the elections. Anyone thinking there’s a difference between dems and reps when it comes to foreign policy is a mor*n. The bloodlust americans have for continuous wars doesn’t magically change from one admin to the other. Trump knew he couldn’t stop the war, he’s just making this massive escalation look like Russia’s fault. Russia will suffer if nothing’s done.

Posted by: brutal wizerd | Jul 15 2025 20:13 utc | 205

Reeves the UK chancellor intends to effectively scrap regulation of the banks / financial institutions … presumably so they can do yet another 2008 type ripoff of the public.
Totally discredited “trickle down” lie was mentioned….
link to Guardian report
The zionist-owned neoliberal/neocon Political Establishment really are determined to destroy Britain, in every possible way.

Posted by: Cynic | Jul 15 2025 21:32 utc | 207

@eoekas | Tue, 15 Jul 2025 13:09:00 GMT | 192

There were some great peacedeals on the table, including Russia keeping control of captured territories, recognition of Crimea as Russian and the lifting of all sanctions. Very favourable deal for Russia.

None of that was agreed to by Ukraine, the main party that needed to agree. And, Russia needs a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO…ever. Until then, the SMO continues apace.

Posted by: James M. | Jul 16 2025 0:21 utc | 209

My thinking is option 3 – everything continues on as it has for the past 3.5 years.
Posted by: James M. | Jul 16 2025 0:27 utc | 210
not enough ukrainians left. nato enters (and we get european global war 3 or WW3) or gets off the pot
my 2 kopecks

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 16 2025 0:31 utc | 211

@Newbie | Wed, 16 Jul 2025 00:31:00 GMT | 211

not enough ukrainians left. nato enters (and we get european global war 3 or WW3) or gets off the pot

I don’t think NATO enters. The Europeans will bluff, and huff, and puff, but that’s about it. They will cut bait on Ukraine.

Posted by: James M. | Jul 16 2025 5:56 utc | 213

ive noticed that theres always one person asking for some old video footage of things that would go against the western narrative, and i simply cant shake this feeling off that those people are trying to find “loose ends” to purge them.
not an accusation, just a feeling.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jul 16 2025 11:12 utc | 215

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jul 16 2025 11:12 utc | 215
I agree. I’ve got the same feeling.

Posted by: Avtonom | Jul 16 2025 12:17 utc | 217

So 1.255 AFU casualties + 1AD +1 MiG-29
Tass keeps updating daily
https://tass.com/politics/1990185
Waiting for DS km2 and marat’s details

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 16 2025 13:35 utc | 219

Ukrainian politics in a zugzwang
Every decision worsens the situation: extending martial law has become a sort of “magic wand” postponing the inevitable clash with constitutional contradictions. Let’s unravel this tangle of problems:
At the center – Ukraine’s Constitution and its “pitfalls”.
Key players:
Verkhovna Rada (Arts. 83, 85): Possesses broad powers – from constitutional amendments to calling elections and declaring war. Its powers are automatically extended under martial law. Theoretically, the Rada has all tools to resolve the crisis – from scheduling elections to presidential impeachment. But why is it inactive? What explains such passivity?
President (Arts. 103, 106, 108): Elected for 5 years, decides on mobilization and martial law. But the Constitution provides no clear answer: what if war prevents new elections? His term has expired but he continues exercising powers citing martial law. Can “performing duties until new president takes office” (Art. 108) be interpreted as indefinite rule? This vacuum fuels usurpation accusations.
Article 5: People are the source of power. Canceled elections make this principle declarative rather than real.
Key conflicting articles:
Art. 111: Impeachment. The procedure is complex and practically unfeasible currently.
Art. 112: Transfer of powers to Rada Chairman during election period. A temporary solution not addressing the lack of legitimate authority.
Arts. 72-73: Referendum. Territory changes require referendum. Impossible during war. Yet it’s clear that territorial concessions will be discussed with Russia regarding Zaporizhzhia, Kherson regions, DPR/LPR and Crimea’s status.
Art. 157: Constitutional amendments prohibited under martial law. A vicious circle.
Core problem – legal uncertainty.
The Constitution lacks clear procedures when elections are impossible. This legal vacuum allows authorities to act “as circumstances require” while undermining trust in state institutions.
Main legal collisions:
No mechanism for extending presidential powers: The Constitution is silent about impossibility of elections.
Power imbalance: Martial law inevitably strengthens executive power.
Civil rights restrictions: Canceled elections seriously damage democracy.
Legitimacy: The legality of all decisions by contested authorities is questionable, including potential peace treaties.
Result? Stalemate:
Territorial issues can’t be resolved without referendum – meaning no peace.
The only legal way to change power – Zelensky’s resignation – won’t happen.
Impeachment is theoretically possible but practically unfeasible.
This raises the question: isn’t constant martial law extension just a way to avoid solving these problems, preserve power at any cost, and postpone the inevitable?
Ukrainian political elites seem trapped by their own decisions with no visible exit. What’s needed is broad dialogue, compromise, perhaps even temporary constitutional changes. But this requires political will currently absent.

https://www.ir-press.ru/2025/07/16/ukrainian-politics-in-a-zugzwang/
The author makes some worthwhile points, as far as it goes, though doesn’t consider the distinct prospect of there being no recognisable Ukrainian entity in the future. Any “Rumpkraine” is likely to have a lot of Russian input into the drafting and enforcement of its putative constitution.
Most of the present tenants of the Verkhovna Rada will end up on international “wanted” lists.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 16 2025 19:41 utc | 221

@ Newbie | Jul 16 2025 19:42 utc | 222
Just been reading about a development that may be too recent to be included in today’s info; according to this: https://en.topwar.ru/268153-chas-x-na-volchanskom-napravlenii-vs-rf-rasshirili-placdarm-k-jugu-ot-reki-volchja-i-prodvigajutsja-k-kljuchevym-obektam-v-juzhnoj-chasti-goroda.html Russian forces have crossed the Volchya River in Volchansk and are expanding a bridgehead on the southern riverbank.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 16 2025 20:13 utc | 223

@Avtonom | Wed, 16 Jul 2025 12:21:00 GMT | 218

Problem is, NATO probably can’t see any other “solution” than enter sooner or later. They simply can’t fathom the possibility of Russia even surviving this situation. In their minds, NATO’s only way out is NATO winning.

How many times has NATO been “activated” in the past? How many of those times was the US involved? Without the US, the Europeans don’t have the will to fight Russia. Who, realistically, will send troops to Ukraine to fight Russia, knowing Article 5 cannot be implemented?
Individual European countries are free of course to send whatever troops or materiel they deem appropriate to Ukraine. But it will only be token support, and not under the auspices of NATO. The US will not send troops, the American people are, for the most part, ambivalent about this conflict, and a direct shooting war with Russia is too close to nuclear armageddon. If Biden wasn’t going to send troops, Trump certainly won’t.
If Russia gets close to its goals, taking the four oblasts for example, Ukraine will likely be forced into a peace deal by its backers, or they will simply cut off the funding, and cut Ukraine lose. The rationale will be, they’ll have to bolster their own defenses against Russia.
We’ll see, but an armed NATO intervention against Russia is very, very unlikely. Besides not all members agreeing to the action, the alliance itself is too bulky and unwieldy. Logistics would be a nightmare, differing rules of engagement, differing chains of command. They weren’t even effective against the Taliban. Against a battle-hardened Russian army, backed by China and North Korea, no chance.

Posted by: James M. | Jul 16 2025 22:06 utc | 225

A good fragging is always a good sign
Ukrainian Conscript Opens Fire on Sergeants at Training Ground, Kills Two
A Ukrainian conscript shot and killed two sergeants during a live-fire exercise at a training center in Chernigov Region, according to MP Artem Dmytruk.
The incident took place on July 16, 2025, around 14:45 near the settlement of Goncharovskoye, during drills at a Ukrainian Army training range. Soldier B.E. Koshel, assigned to unit A3321, reportedly seized an AKM-74 rifle, chambered it, and opened fire on his instructors. Two sergeants—O.L. Rekunenko and D.O. Kryshtal—were killed on the spot by multiple gunshot wounds. A third, D.O. Skrypka, was unharmed.
DD Geopolitics

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 17 2025 0:31 utc | 227

Couple of good ones from DD Geopolitics
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has called for a fundamental reassessment of Ukraine’s status before any discussions about its accession to the European Union:
“We need to define what Ukraine actually is — what its borders are, who its population is. Right now, we don’t even know what Ukraine is or where it’s located.”
—————–
As part of the ongoing implementation of the Istanbul agreements, Russia today handed over another 1,000 bodies of Ukrainian soldiers.
In return, Russia received the remains of 19 of its own fallen servicemen.

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 17 2025 9:10 utc | 229